14 六月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

June 14, 2018

 

 

Pulse of the Market

  • The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point yesterday
  • Powell after the Fed’s two-day meeting said the economy has strengthened significantly
  • The British Pound pared earlier gains despite U.K inflation matching economists’ estimates
  • Canadian Dollar gained as oil prices continued to support amid larger draw in U.S crude supplies

The U.S Dollar fell against its rivals despite upbeat economic data pointing to signs of faster inflation. The Labor Department said yesterday its producer price index for final demand increased 0.5% last month, topping expectations for a 0.3% rise. In the 12 months through May, the PPI rose 3.1% after rising 2.6% in April. The faster pace of inflation comes as data showed Tuesday the consumer price index rose 0.2%, beating economists’ forecasts for a 0.1% rise. The Federal Reserve yesterday voted to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter-percentage point and became slightly more hawkish on its expectations for what it will have to do this year. The Fed increased the federal funds rate target to a range of 1.75% and 2% and forecasted it expected to raise rates four times this year, up from a forecast of three in March. The move did not reflect a major shift in the Fed’s thinking. The “dot plot” shows only one official switched to a slightly higher interest-rate path. And the difference between three and four moves this year remains extremely narrow. Eight Fed officials said they expected interest rates to rise at least four times while seven forecast three rate hikes. Ahead of the decision, analysts said a signal of four rate hikes would indicate the Fed is focusing more on the low U.S. unemployment rate and not worried about weakness overseas or recent market turmoil sparked by Italian politics. The central bank made several changes to the statement to reflect the economy is much firmer ground. The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S counterpart yesterday, with the currency recovering from an earlier one-week low ahead of an expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The Australian Dollar recovered from Tuesday’s drop, as traders took up positions ahead of the latest volley of labor market data due for release today.

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUN) Medium     3.7%
01:30 Australia Employment Change (MAY) High   19.0k 22.6k
01:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (MAY) High   5.6% 5.6%
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) Medium   9.6% 9.4%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY) Medium   7.0% 7.0%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (APR) Medium     2.5%
06:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) Medium   2.2% 2.2%
11:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (JUN 14) High   0.00% 0.00%
11:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility (JUN 14) High   0.25% 0.25%
11:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate (JUN 14) High   -0.40% -0.40%
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (APR) Medium   1.7% 2.4%
12:30 ECB President Draghi Holds Press Conference in Riga High      
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (MAY) High   0.4% 0.3%
12:30 U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (MAY) Medium   0.2% 0.1%
12:30 U.S Export Price Index (YoY) (MAY) Medium     3.8%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 09) Medium   222k 222k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (JUN 02) Medium   1734k 1741k
14:00 U.S Business Inventories (APR) Medium   0.3% 0.0%

 

Euro

The single currency gained as the U.S Dollar fell despite upbeat economic data pointing to signs of faster inflation. The Labor Department data showed that its producer price index for final demand increased 0.5% last month, topping expectations for a 0.3% rise. In the 12 months through May, the PPI rose 3.1% after rising 2.6% in April. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1723 and a high of 1.1799 before closing the day around 1.1793 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair reversed its earlier gains in yesterday’s session as the move to increase rate did not reflect a major shift in the Fed’s thinking. The “dot plot” shows only one official switched to a slightly higher interest-rate path. And the difference between three and four moves this year remains extremely narrow. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.25 and a high of 110.82 before closing the day around 110.35 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound won a moment’s respite late Tuesday when MP’s rejected the so called “meaningful vote” amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, which seemingly kicks any threat to the stability of the government out into the long grass, but the next challenge to Prime Minister Theresa May’s leadership and the government is already looming over Sterling. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3306 and a high of 1.3387 before closing the day at 1.3376 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher against its U.S counterpart yesterday, with the currency recovering from an earlier one-week low. The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates once this year. Chances of another hike at its next meeting in July have eased to about 62 per cent from more than 70 per cent before a G7 summit in Canada at the weekend. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2952 and a high of 1.3049 before closing the day at 1.2987 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar rose against a majority of developed world currencies yesterday, recovering from an overnight slump, as traders took up positions ahead of the latest volley of labor market data from down under that is due for release. Today’s unemployment data offers the Aussie unit a chance to recover some more lost ground Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7527 and a high of 0.7606 before closing the day at 0.7562 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.37%.

 

  Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has closed unchanged.

 

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.07%.

 

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also showing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.37%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.11%.

 

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for June 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.17445 1.17996 1.17238 1.17931 0.0046
USD/JPY 110.335 110.829 110.252 110.353 -0.0310
GBP/USD 1.33707 1.33876 1.33064 1.33764 0.0003
USD/CHF 0.98655 0.98934 0.98384 0.9856 -0.0012
USD/CAD 1.30145 1.30494 1.29529 1.29877 -0.0029
EUR/JPY 129.606 130.324 129.577 130.132 0.4760
GBP/JPY 147.555 147.87 147.186 147.609 -0.0040
CHF/JPY 111.831 112.169 111.773 111.986 0.1070
AUD/JPY 83.533 83.954 83.412 83.642 0.0550
EUR/GBP 0.87809 0.88235 0.87789 0.88168 0.0033
EUR/CHF 1.15863 1.16222 1.15856 1.16222 0.0031
GBP/CHF 1.31919 1.32024 1.31445 1.31837 -0.0015

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1669 1.1696 1.1745 1.1772 1.1821 1.1848 1.1896
USD/JPY 109.55 109.90 110.13 110.48 110.70 111.06 111.28
GBP/USD 1.3245 1.3276 1.3326 1.3357 1.3407 1.3438 1.3488
USD/CHF 0.9777 0.9808 0.9832 0.9863 0.9887 0.9918 0.9942
USD/CAD 1.2847 1.2900 1.2944 1.2997 1.3040 1.3093 1.3137
EUR/JPY 128.95 129.26 129.70 130.01 130.45 130.76 131.19
GBP/JPY 146.56 146.87 147.24 147.56 147.92 148.24 148.61
CHF/JPY 111.39 111.58 111.78 111.98 112.18 112.37 112.58
AUD/JPY 82.84 83.13 83.38 83.67 83.93 84.21 84.47
EUR/GBP 0.8745 0.8762 0.8789 0.8806 0.8834 0.8851 0.8879
EUR/CHF 1.1561 1.1573 1.1598 1.1610 1.1634 1.1647 1.1671
GBP/CHF 1.3093 1.3119 1.3151 1.3177 1.3209 1.3235 1.3267

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

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