14 12 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 14, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S unemployment claims dropped to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand

·      U.S inflation was flat in November, dropping from 0.3 percent a month earlier

·      UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence yesterday

·      ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent and marked down its outlook on regional growth

The U.S Dollar was higher yesterday, as the number of people who filed for first-time unemployment benefits hit a two-and-a-half month low. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.19% to 97.20. The dollar was boosted after the U.S Department of Labor said that the number of individuals applying for initial jobless benefits in the seven days ended Dec. 8 decreased by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000. Meanwhile the pound was slightly higher after UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening. Brexit woes continue despite the victory, as it seems unlikely that May’s party will support her agreement with Brussels on leaving the European Union in March. The euro fell against the dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. On the other hand, ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Sterling held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. Traders’ attempt to extend sterling’ gains faded on uncertainty on what more May, who is currently in Brussels, could get from EU leaders to improve on her Brexit proposal. On Monday, May scrapped a parliamentary vote on her current plan, sending the pound to a 20-month low against the dollar and triggering a no-confidence vote on her leadership. The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell after data on Wednesday showed a smaller-than-expected drawdown in U.S crude stockpiles. U.S crude oil futures were down 0.6 per cent at $50.86 a barrel.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  Summit of EU Leaders High      
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (DEC) Medium     52.2
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV) Medium   8.8% 8.6%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) Medium   5.9% 5.9%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) Medium     4.2%
08:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.7 51.8
09:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.8 51.8
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (NOV) High   0.1% 0.8%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (NOV) Medium   0.4% 0.3%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Control Group (NOV) Medium   0.5% 0.3%
14:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.1%
14:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.3%
14:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   55.1 55.3
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (DEC) Medium   55 54.7
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (DEC 14) Medium     1075

 

Euro

The single currency fell against the Dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40%. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1329 and a high of 1.1392 before closing the day around 1.1356 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen moved lower in yesterday’s trading session. In the U.S, unemployment claims dropped sharply to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand. Japan’s manufacturing sector is being squeezed by the ongoing U.S-China trade war, which is having a chilling effect on the Japanese economy. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.18 and a high of 113.68 before closing the day around 113.59 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. It had rallied on Wednesday in anticipation as traders bet her win might allow her to negotiate more generous terms for Britain in its exit from the European Union in March. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2608 and a high of 1.2684 before closing the day at 1.2657 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The U.S dollar rose against a basket of major currencies after the European Central Bank trimmed its growth and inflation projections for next year, pressuring the euro. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3336 and a high of 1.3381 before closing the day at 1.3351 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is holding near a one-week high as riskier assets are boosted by signs of progress in Sino-US trade relations. But most of the action in the forex world was in the British pound with most other currencies bystanders amid high political drama in Britain, where Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote on her leadership. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7210 and a high of 0.7244 before closing the day at 0.7228 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.22%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.57%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.40%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.30%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.31%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1368 1.1392 1.13297 1.13563 -0.0011
USD/JPY 113.291 113.689 113.186 113.597 0.3320
GBP/USD 1.26258 1.26846 1.26083 1.26577 0.0032
USD/CHF 0.99334 0.99525 0.99098 0.9938 0.0005
USD/CAD 1.33487 1.33816 1.3336 1.33514 0.0003
EUR/JPY 128.802 129.231 128.685 129.048 0.2840
GBP/JPY 143.056 143.909 142.867 143.803 0.8110
CHF/JPY 114.027 114.418 113.937 114.256 0.2620
AUD/JPY 81.797 82.174 81.657 82.066 0.3300
EUR/GBP 0.90025 0.90129 0.89504 0.89733 -0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.12937 1.12999 1.12637 1.12924 0.0000
GBP/CHF 1.25425 1.25897 1.25289 1.25822 0.0039

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1264 1.1297 1.1327 1.1359 1.1389 1.1422 1.1451
USD/JPY 112.79 112.99 113.29 113.49 113.80 113.99 114.30
GBP/USD 1.2540 1.2574 1.2616 1.2650 1.2692 1.2727 1.2768
USD/CHF 0.9872 0.9891 0.9914 0.9933 0.9957 0.9976 1.0000
USD/CAD 1.3285 1.3311 1.3331 1.3356 1.3377 1.3402 1.3422
EUR/JPY 128.20 128.44 128.75 128.99 129.29 129.53 129.84
GBP/JPY 142.10 142.48 143.14 143.53 144.19 144.57 145.23
CHF/JPY 113.51 113.72 113.99 114.20 114.47 114.68 114.95
AUD/JPY 81.24 81.45 81.76 81.97 82.27 82.48 82.79
EUR/GBP 0.8882 0.8916 0.8945 0.8979 0.9007 0.9041 0.9070
EUR/CHF 1.1235 1.1249 1.1271 1.1285 1.1307 1.1322 1.1343
GBP/CHF 1.2483 1.2506 1.2544 1.2567 1.2605 1.2628 1.2666

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

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