20 十二月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, December 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23312 2504.75 6352.50
+0.95% +0.54% +0.93%

U.S stocks gained earlier in yesterday’s trading session before the outcome of a key policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 193 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 index rose 20 points, or 0.8%. The NASDAQ climbed 48 points, or 0.7%. Investors are expecting the Fed to help assuage brewing anxieties that have underpinned a recent bout of market tumult as the central bank’s interest-rate setting committee. Meanwhile, U.S Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gave investors reason for optimism regarding U.S-China trade relations, when he said the U.S and China will meet in January to broker a trade-war truce, in an interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday. Previously, the Trump administration hadn’t given a specific timetable for face-to-face negotiations. With volume so light this time of year, investors should brace for more volatility. Existing home sales rose 1.9%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.32 million from October to November, according to the National Association of Realtors.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target     0.00%

dec

BOJ Rate Decision     -0.10%

nov

Australia Employment Change 00:30 20.0k 32.8k

nov

Australia Unemployment Rate 00:30 5.0% 5.0%

dec

Bank of England Bank Rate 12:00 0.75% 0.75%

dec

BOE Asset Purchase Target 12:00 435b 435b

dec

U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 13:30 15.5 12.9

dec

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 219k 206k

nov

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) 23:30 0.8% 1.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.49% to hit a new 52-week low. The best performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 0.38% or 0.21 points to trade at 55.86 at the close. Meanwhile, The Travelers Companies Inc. fell 0.12% or 0.14 points to end at 119.16 and International Business Machines was down 0.19% or 0.22 points to 116.43 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 4.55% or 2.17 points to trade at 45.57 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 3.12% or 5.18 points to end at 160.89 and Nike Inc. was down 3.06% or 2.18 points to 68.97.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 2.17%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Marin Software Inc. which rose 78.76% to 6.650, China Automotive Systems Inc. which was up 42.06% to settle at 3.040 and Evine Live Inc. which gained 41.85% to close at 0.558. The worst performers were Surface Oncology Inc. which was down 47.50% to 3.89 in late trade, Biocept Inc. which lost 29.82% to settle at 0.800 and Toughbuilt Industries Inc. which was down 24.00% to 1.14 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose about 3 percent yesterday, recovering somewhat from a sharp sell-off during the previous session, after U.S data showed strong demand for refined products. Sentiment remains negative, however, as investors grapple with weakening demand and worries about oversupply. U.S light crude contract rose $1.44 a barrel to $48.04. The markets slumped on Tuesday, extending a recent run of poor performance. Global benchmark Brent tumbled 5.6 percent on Tuesday, just above a 14-month low reached during the session, while WTI lost 7.3 percent, falling to its lowest level since August 2017. Crude inventories fell by 497,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 14, smaller than the decrease of 2.4 million barrels analysts had expected. The decline was the third consecutive decrease, the U.S Energy Information Administration said. The OPEC and other oil producers including Russia agreed this month to curb output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in an attempt to drain tanks and boost prices.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose to a one-week high yesterday, helped by a weaker U.S dollar and a fall in global stock markets, but moves were limited as investors sought clarity on the path of U.S interest rates as concerns about a slowing global economy deepened. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,247.06 per ounce, having earlier touched its highest since Dec. 10 at $1,250.27, just short of a five-month peak of $1,250.55 hit last week. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,251.30 per ounce. There has been a slight increase in the minority view that the Fed might not raise rates, given the recent weakness in the equity markets. It would be quite a shock if they didn’t increase rates in this week’s meeting. Most of the attention will be on how many more interest rates rises there may be next year. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year at its two-day policy meeting ending today. But weak stock markets and slowing global growth may prompt the central bank to signal a slowdown in rate increases. We have seen quite a broad-based sell-off across many other markets, from equities to other commodity markets, and an increase in risk aversion. In that climate, gold is edging gradually higher towards a multi-months peak. World stock markets tumbled as fears about a slowing global economy gripped investors, while the dollar index slipped 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Gold tends to gain when interest rate hike expectations ease because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, in which it is priced. In euro terms, gold reached its highest since June at 1,100.57 euro an ounce. Gold, considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has risen more than 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. It is also set to post its biggest quarterly gains since March 2017. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent to $14.63.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures edged higher yesterday as the oilseed market awaited signs of further demand from China as part of a trade truce with Washington. Wheat eased after gaining ground on Monday while corn ticked upwards in cautious trading.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 23571 24073 23168 23312 -282
S & P 500 SPM18 2531.75 2590.25 2489.5 2504.75 -32.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6464 6601.5 6301 6352.5 -127.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25847 25935 25798 25919 103
Nikkei 225 NKH18 20985 21100 20805 20935 -170
FTSE 100 FTH18 6639 6723.5 6598 6613.5 -17
Gold GCJ18 1253.6 1261.9 1245.1 1246.4 -6.7
Silver SIK18 1470 1489 1460.5 1465 -4
Copper HGK18 265.45 271.9 265.4 267.5 2.3
Crude Oil CLK18 46.27 48.32 46.26 47.38 1.17
Wheat WK18 531.75 532 521.25 522.5 -9.75
Soybeans SK18 906.5 909.5 898.75 899.5 -7.75
Corn CK18 384.75 384.75 381.5 381.5 -3.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 22057 22613 22962 23518 23867 24423 24772
SPM18 2365.33 2427.42 2466.08 2528.17 2566.83 2628.92 2667.58
NDM18 5934.67 6117.83 6235.17 6418.33 6535.67 6718.83 6836.17
HSH18 25696 25747 25833 25884 25970 26021 26107
NKH18 20498 20652 20793 20947 21088 21242 21383
FTH18 6441.00 6519.50 6566.50 6645.00 6692.00 6770.50 6817.50
GCJ18 1223.57 1234.33 1240.37 1251.13 1257.17 1267.93 1273.97
SIK18 1425.50 1443.00 1454.00 1471.50 1482.50 1500.00 1511.00
HGK18 258.13 261.77 264.63 268.27 271.13 274.77 277.63
CLK18 44.26 45.26 46.32 47.32 48.38 49.38 50.44
WK18 507.75 514.50 518.50 525.25 529.25 536.00 540.00
SK18 884.92 891.83 895.67 902.58 906.42 913.33 917.17
CK18 377.17 379.33 380.42 382.58 383.67 385.83 386.92

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-20

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週三(12月19日)收跌,亞市盤中美元指數位於96.8附近做區間震盪,美市盤中美國公佈 11月成屋銷售年化總數(萬戶)公佈值為532萬戶,高於前值522萬戶和市場預測的520萬戶,美元指數並沒有因此受到提振,因中東傳來消息,特朗普下令從敘利亞全面撤軍。消息傳來之後美元受到打壓下跌,盤中最低來到96.56,緊接著美聯儲公佈利率決定宣佈加息25個基點,將聯邦基金利率目標區間由原本的2.00-2.25%上調至2.25-2.50%,和市場預測相同,美元指數聞訊上漲盤中最高來到97.10,美元指數最終收在97.03。

現貨黃金週三收跌,亞市早盤開於1249.20美元/金衡盎司後,金價位於1249.00美元/金衡盎司左右區間震盪,美市開盤受到美元指數下跌影響,資金紛紛流入黃金,盤中最高來到1257.75美元/金衡盎司,美市盤中美聯儲宣布加息,美元指數受到提振,黃金受到打壓下跌,盤中最低來到1241.50美元/金衡盎司,黃金最終收在1242.85美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收漲1.15美元,或2.49%,報47.37美元/桶。美國能源資訊署(EIA)週三公佈報告顯示,截至12月14日當周,美國原油庫存減少49.7萬桶,低於前值減少的120.8萬桶,雖然美國原油庫存報告整體利空,但美聯儲暗示明年加息次數將減少,從而幫助油價在18日大跌之後收復部分失地。

美國股市週三大幅下挫,此前儘管美聯儲預計明年可能放慢升息步伐,但投資者原本預期聯儲貨幣政策會更偏鴿派,鮑威爾在講話表示,他認為美聯儲不會改變讓資產負債表繼續自動縮減的政策,這使投資者擔心金融環境收緊將令金融市場進一步承壓。道瓊工業指數收挫351.98點,或1.49%,報23323.66點;標普500指數收跌39.2點,或1.54%,報2506.96點;那斯達克指數收低147.08點,或2.17%,報6636.83點。

個股方面,Facebook(FB)股價跌7.25%,為7月來最大百分比跌幅。紐約時報報導,該公司允許一些企業獲得使用者資訊的程度超過披露情況,公司稱,只有在使用者允許的情況下,其他企業才可以獲得使用者資訊。聯邦快遞(FDX)股價重挫12.33%,創10年來最大單日跌幅,之前該公司調降2019年業績預估。美光(MU)股價也大跌7.92%,之前該公司的溫和財測加劇了對行業榮景消散的擔憂。

日本股市週三下跌,因市場靜待美國聯邦公開市場委員會會議結果,加上19日正式掛牌上市的電信大廠軟銀沒蜜月行情,首日表現慘,衝擊投資人信心,也拖累日經225指數19日持續走跌、失守21000點整數關卡,終場跌0.60%或127.53點,收20987.92點。

個股方面,軟銀集團下挫0.91%,SBG旗下電信大廠軟銀19日正式掛牌,惟掛牌首日沒出現蜜月行情。豐田汽車跌0.19%,豐田衝刺電動化車款銷售,力拼2020年銷售量增4成、佔整體新車銷售量比重約1/4。工具機廠DMG森精機大漲2.24%,美中貿易摩擦、導致中國工具機需求失速,森精機傳出將首度把在中國生產的工具機出口至印度販售。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收跌,震蕩交投於112.400一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格進一步考驗112.100一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊指向113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.14379一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位看向1.13500一線。上行方面,價格阻力位進一步考驗1.14200一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收跌,一度衝高至1.26774一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.25000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜衝高回落,一度觸及日高至1257一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向下。後市來看,金價初步阻力位指向1250一線。下行方面,金價支撐位考驗1236一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,低位交投于47一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向上脫離超賣區。後市來看,油價依舊考驗46關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向50.50一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,盤中一度反彈至24064一線后跳水走低。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標進入超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24000關口。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23000一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收跌,最低探至20525一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21200一線,下行支撐位看向20400一線。

 

19 十二月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Wednesday, December 19, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23594 2537.00 6479.75
+0.95% +0.54% +0.93%

Stocks rebounded yesterday, recovering some of the steep losses of the prior trading session that sent both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 down more than 2 percent. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9 percent after falling to a new closing low and touching a new intraday low for 2018 on Monday on fears the Federal Reserve is going too far with its rate-hiking plans. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 300 points, led higher by gains in Boeing and Johnson & Johnson. A comeback in technology stocks led the NASDAQ to a 1.2 percent gain as Amazon, Apple and Netflix — which were hit hard on Monday — all traded higher. Facebook stock rallied 3.6 percent while Google-parent Alphabet added 3.1 percent. Also helping sentiment was White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders, who said that the Trump administration wants to avoid a partial government shutdown and has found alternative revenues to build President Donald Trump’s border wall. The Fed is widely expected to hike its benchmark lending rate for a fourth and final time of 2018.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 07:00 3.1% 3.3%

nov

U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) 09:30 2.3% 2.4%

oct

U.K House Price Index (YoY) 09:30 3.3% 3.5%

dec

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 12:00   1.6%

nov

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) 13:30 1.8% 2.4%

nov

U.S Existing Home Sales (MoM) 15:00 -0.4% 1.4%

dec

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 15:30   -1208k

dec

U.S FOMC Rate Decision 19:00 2.50% 2.25%

 

Fed’s Powell Holds Press Conference Following FOMC Decision 19:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.35%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Boeing Co, which rose 3.77% or 11.93 points to trade at 328.06 at the close. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added 2.08% or 3.49 points to end at 171.50 and Nike Inc. was up 1.79% or 1.25 points to 71.15 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Exxon Mobil Corp, which fell 2.76% or 2.04 points to trade at 72.00 at the close. Chevron Corp declined 2.41% or 2.71 points to end at 109.74 and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was down 1.98% or 5.10 points to 252.97.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 0.45%. The top performers were Biocept Inc. which rose 66.28% to 1.140, Marin Software Inc. which was up 30.07% to settle at 3.720 and Toughbuilt Industries Inc. which gained 22.04% to close at 1.55. The worst performers were Regulus Therapeutics Inc. which was down 24.09% to 1.040 in late trade, Dova Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 23.64% to settle at 6.88 and Champions Oncology Inc. which was down 23.04% to 7.3500 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices tumbled yesterday after reports of swelling inventories and forecasts that record U.S and Russian output will hit a market that may see weaker demand if global growth deteriorates as many expect. U.S crude oil fell $2.78, or 5.5 percent to trade at $47.10 a barrel. The session low was $46.97, its weakest since September 2017. World stock markets inched higher as investors looked ahead to whether the U.S Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates much further. Equity markets have had steep declines over the last two months. Investor confidence is deteriorating, with more fund managers expecting global growth to weaken over the next 12 months, the worst outlook in a decade, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s December investor survey showed. Britain’s largest oilfield restarted, increasing supply, the U.S government said output from shale would top 8 million barrels per day this year, and data suggested U.S. crude inventories would rise this week. Crude oil has slid more than 30 percent since early October.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose to a one-week high yesterday, helped by a weaker U.S dollar and a fall in global stock markets, but moves were limited as investors sought clarity on the path of U.S interest rates as concerns about a slowing global economy deepened. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,247.06 per ounce, having earlier touched its highest since Dec. 10 at $1,250.27, just short of a five-month peak of $1,250.55 hit last week. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,251.30 per ounce. There has been a slight increase in the minority view that the Fed might not raise rates, given the recent weakness in the equity markets. It would be quite a shock if they didn’t increase rates in this week’s meeting. Most of the attention will be on how many more interest rates rises there may be next year. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year at its two-day policy meeting ending today. But weak stock markets and slowing global growth may prompt the central bank to signal a slowdown in rate increases. We have seen quite a broad-based sell-off across many other markets, from equities to other commodity markets, and an increase in risk aversion. In that climate, gold is edging gradually higher towards a multi-months peak. World stock markets tumbled as fears about a slowing global economy gripped investors, while the dollar index slipped 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Gold tends to gain when interest rate hike expectations ease because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, in which it is priced. In euro terms, gold reached its highest since June at 1,100.57 euro an ounce. Gold, considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has risen more than 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. It is also set to post its biggest quarterly gains since March 2017. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent to $14.63.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures edged higher yesterday as the oilseed market awaited signs of further demand from China as part of a trade truce with Washington. Wheat eased after gaining ground on Monday while corn ticked upwards in cautious trading.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 23796 23947 23583 23594 -80
S & P 500 SPM18 2557 2577.5 2531 2537 -18.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6491.25 6577.25 6456.5 6479.75 -8
Hang Seng HSH18 25877 26188 25696 25816 -260
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21095 21265 21025 21105 -330
FTSE 100 FTH18 6668.5 6697.5 6616.5 6630.5 -32
Gold GCJ18 1249.5 1254.1 1248.8 1253.1 3.6
Silver SIK18 1472.5 1477.5 1466.5 1469 6
Copper HGK18 274.3 275.2 265.15 265.2 -9.1
Crude Oil CLK18 49.43 49.86 46.08 46.21 -3.22
Wheat WK18 533.25 535.75 529.5 532.25 -3
Soybeans SK18 903.5 911.75 902.75 907.25 3.5
Corn CK18 383.25 386 383 385 1.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23105 23344 23469 23708 23833 24072 24197
SPM18 2473.00 2502.00 2519.50 2548.50 2566.00 2595.00 2612.50
NDM18 6311.00 6383.75 6431.75 6504.50 6552.50 6625.25 6673.25
HSH18 25120 25408 25612 25900 26104 26392 26596
NKH18 20758 20892 20998 21132 21238 21372 21478
FTH18 6517.83 6567.17 6598.83 6648.17 6679.83 6729.17 6760.83
GCJ18 1244.60 1246.70 1249.90 1252.00 1255.20 1257.30 1260.50
SIK18 1453.50 1460.00 1464.50 1471.00 1475.50 1482.00 1486.50
HGK18 251.78 258.47 261.83 268.52 271.88 278.57 281.93
CLK18 41.13 43.60 44.91 47.38 48.69 51.16 52.47
WK18 523.00 526.25 529.25 532.50 535.50 538.75 541.75
SK18 893.75 898.25 902.75 907.25 911.75 916.25 920.75
CK18 380.33 381.67 383.33 384.67 386.33 387.67 389.33

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-19

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週二(12月18日)收跌,亞市盤中區間震盪,錄得日內高點97.17。歐式盤中轉跌,一路下滑,錄得日內低點96.70後反轉上漲。美市盤中因美聯儲將進行為期兩日的利率會議,市場預期美聯儲將加息,使得美國總統特朗普再度呼籲美聯儲停止升息。數據方面,美國11月營建許可年化總數為132.8萬戶,高於前值126.5萬戶,顯示房貸利率走高和勞動力收緊,限制房地產市場發展,且房地產市場的持續疲軟可能是經濟放緩的信號。數據公布後,美元指數持續上漲,最終報收97.06。

現貨黃金週二收漲,亞市早盤開於1245.80美元/金衡盎司後,金價區間震盪,錄得日內低點1244.80美元/金衡盎司後反彈,金價震盪上行。歐市盤中金價延續漲勢,不斷走高,錄得日內高點1250.10美元/金衡盎司後回落。美市盤中金價再反彈,多頭奮力上攻,終收於1249.20美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收跌2.90美元,或5.90%,報46.22美元/桶。美國和俄羅斯產量維持紀錄高位,且雖然主要產油國可以協同進行減產,但各國最終都會以自身利益為主,令原油供應過剩的擔憂日益加重。原油盤中錄得日內低點46.10美元/桶,刷新2017年8月以來新低。

美國股市週二上漲,由於美墨邊境興建圍牆預算問題僵持不下,導致美政府運作可能停擺、油價大幅下跌引發能源股拋售。道瓊工業指數收高82.66點,或0.35%,報23675.64點;標普500指數收高0.22點,或0.01%,報2546.16點;那斯達克指數收漲30.18點,或0.45%,報6783.91點。

個股方面,亞馬遜(AMZN)上漲2.01%;Netflix(NFLX)上漲3.10%;臉書(FB)股價上漲2.48%;Alphabet(GOOGL)上漲1.73%;蘋果(AAPL)上漲1.30%;美國石油工業之王埃克森美孚(XOM)下跌2.76%,雪佛龍(CVX)下跌2.41%;IBM(IBM)上漲0.47%;美光(MU)上漲0.68%。

日本股市週二下跌,因美股17日重挫,加上中國在18日舉行的改革開放40週年紀念日的演說上未提到如何化解中美衝突,拖累日經225指數18日重挫、創低,終場下挫1.82%或391.43點,收21115.45點。

個股方面,日本中小尺寸液晶面板大廠Japan Display Inc重挫3.49%,美中貿易摩擦影響JDI重建之路,傳出若JDI引進陸資、蘋果恐將拒用JDI液晶面板。日本武田藥品工業暴跌8.95%,收購Shire恐讓武田有息負債狂飆,穆迪大砍武田評等。FDK狂飆9.52%。FDK發表IoT用全固態電池,將在12月20日開始送樣。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收跌,最低探至112.247一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格進一步考驗112.200一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,一度探高至1.14000一線上方後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.27044一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.25000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,溫和探高至1250一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,金價阻力位進一步指向1252一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1244一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜延續下跌,最低探至46.10一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,油價考驗46關口支撐力度,跌破將打開更多下行空間。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向50.40一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投於23600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24400一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23400一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜窄幅震蕩,交投於21000關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21500一線,下行支撐位看向20800一線。

 

18 十二月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Tuesday, December 18, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23674 2555.25 6487.75
-1.02% -1.16% -1.15%

Stocks sank yesterday as investors grew worried that the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates could be too much for the economy and stock market to handle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 250 points on the week’s first day of trading, with losses in UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson offsetting gains in Boeing and Apple. The S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent amid a 2.5 percent loss in utilities and a 1.7 percent loss in real estate investments. The Dow is now more than 11 percent off its 52-week high; the S&P 500 is 12 percent off its record high notched back in September. The tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 1 as Amazon fell 3.1 percent and Microsoft dropped 1.6 percent. All three major U.S indexes closed in correction territory for the first time since March 2016 in the prior trading session. Investors are also on edge ahead of the December meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking arm. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hike its benchmark overnight lending rate for a fourth and final time of 2018 this week.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook 00:00   7.6

dec

RBA Dec. Meeting Minutes 00:30    

dec

Switzerland SECO Dec. 2018 Economic Forecasts 06:45    

dec

German IFO Business Climate 09:00 101.7 102

dec

German IFO Expectations 09:00 98.3 98.7

dec

German IFO Current Assessment 09:00 104.9 105.4

nov

U.S Housing Starts (MoM) 13:30 0.2% 1.5%

nov

U.S Building Permits (MoM) 13:30 -0.4% -0.6%

nov

Japan Trade Balance 23:50 -¥630.0b -¥449.3b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.11% to hit a new 6-months low. The best performers of the session were The Travelers Companies Inc., which fell 0.51% or 0.62 points to trade at 119.93 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co fell 0.82% or 2.62 points to end at 316.13 and Apple Inc. was down 0.93% or 1.54 points to 163.94 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were American Express Company, which fell 4.28% or 4.52 points to trade at 101.18 at the close. Procter & Gamble Company declined 4.00% or 3.87 points to end at 92.77 and Nike Inc. was down 3.63% or 2.63 points to 69.90.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 2.27%. The top performers were Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 51.38% to 0.121, Riot Blockchain Inc. which was up 32.59% to settle at 1.7900 and Calyxt Inc. which gained 23.79% to close at 12.23. The worst performers were Sophiris Bio Inc. which was down 40.29% to 1.230 in late trade, Cancer Genetics Inc. which lost 40.04% to settle at 0.333 and Dova Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 39.16% to 9.01 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday on signs of oversupply in the United States and as investor sentiment remained under pressure from concern over the prospects for global economic growth and fuel demand. U.S light crude fell 88 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $50.32, after briefly dipping below $50 for the first time in two weeks. The contract hit a session high at $51.87 yesterday. U.S crude futures fell after inventories at the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma rose by more than 1 million barrels between Dec. 11 and Dec. 14, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. Traders and market participants closely watch supplies at the hub because it is the delivery point for the futures contract and underpins nearly all other regional crude grades. Some investors doubt planned supply cuts by OPEC and other producers such as Russia will be enough to rebalance markets. OPEC and its allies have agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January, in a move to be reviewed at a meeting in April.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose yesterday as a slide in the dollar made bullion more attractive for holders of other currencies, while some investors took cover as stocks globally slipped into the red ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. Palladium climbed to an all-time high of $1,269.50 on a prolonged deficit in the market and increased speculative interest, with prices trading at a premium to bullion. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,244.91 per ounce. The metal touched its lowest since Dec. 4 at $1,232.39 an ounce on Friday. U.S gold futures were 0.5 percent higher at $1,247.90 per ounce. The dollar slipped ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting ending on Wednesday. Investor focus will be on the central bank’s policy outlook for 2019 and future interest rate hikes. One of the drivers that is pushing gold higher right now is the flight to safety (due to lower equities), along with the dollar being sold-off a bit. Some traders are also positioning themselves so that if the Fed does not raise rates, gold might spike. Weak stock markets and slowing global growth have raised speculation that the Fed will need to pause its tightening cycle or risk harming the U.S economy. Stocks fell on concerns over global growth that sent world equity markets to 17-month lows last week. Markets were also concerned about a possible U.S. government shutdown. Investor sentiment toward gold showed signs of optimism. Speculators switched to a net long position in gold of 10,252 contracts, adding 11,791 contracts in the week to Dec. 11, data showed on Friday. This was the first time gold speculators have held a net long position since July, and the strongest since June. With increased volatility and geopolitical risk, macro asset allocation is becoming more gold-positive again, while we believe much of the dollar’s upward move is now behind us with rate hike expectations dropping. Silver was up 0.7 percent at $14.66 per ounce, while platinum rose 1.2 percent at $796.80 per ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures rebounded more than 1 percent in yesterday’s trading session after a sharp fall in the previous session, as a jump in prices in top exporter Russia improved U.S wheat’s competitiveness on world markets.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, December 17, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24016 24238 23474 23674 -449
S & P 500 SPM18 2594.75 2616.75 2533.5 2555.25 -49.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6598 6655.75 6422.75 6487.75 -133.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26151 26226 26006 26076 41
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21225 21490 21185 21435 120
FTSE 100 FTH18 6782.5 6787.5 6626 6662.5 -72.5
Gold GCJ18 1241.1 1251.9 1239.8 1249.5 8.7
Silver SIK18 1463 1463.5 1462.5 1463 0
Copper HGK18 275.3 275.9 272 274.3 -1.5
Crude Oil CLK18 51.25 51.84 48.99 49.13 -2.17
Wheat WK18 531 537.25 529.75 535.25 5.5
Soybeans SK18 903.25 909 901.75 903.75 3.75
Corn CK18 383.75 385.5 383 383.5 -0.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 22589 23031 23353 23795 24117 24559 24881
SPM18 2437.00 2485.25 2520.25 2568.50 2603.50 2651.75 2686.75
NDM18 6155.42 6289.08 6388.42 6522.08 6621.42 6755.08 6854.42
HSH18 25759 25883 25979 26103 26199 26323 26419
NKH18 20945 21065 21250 21370 21555 21675 21860
FTH18 6435.00 6530.50 6596.50 6692.00 6758.00 6853.50 6919.50
GCJ18 1230.13 1234.97 1242.23 1247.07 1254.33 1259.17 1266.43
SIK18 1461.50 1462.00 1462.50 1463.00 1463.50 1464.00 1464.50
HGK18 268.33 270.17 272.23 274.07 276.13 277.97 280.03
CLK18 45.28 47.14 48.13 49.99 50.98 52.84 53.83
WK18 523.42 526.58 530.92 534.08 538.42 541.58 545.92
SK18 893.42 897.58 900.67 904.83 907.92 912.08 915.17
CK18 380.00 381.50 382.50 384.00 385.00 386.50 387.50

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-18

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週一(12月17日)收跌,日內公佈的數據較弱。數據顯示,美國12月紐約聯儲製造業指數為10.9,遠低於前值23.3和預期值20.2。美國12月NAHB房產市場指數為56,低於前值60和預期值61,因缺乏可建土地及建築材料成本增加,使得房屋供給受到抑制,同時貸款成本也提高,減少了潛在的買家。數據公布後,並未對美元指數帶來提振,反而持續下跌,錄得日內低點97.05後,但在收盤前上漲,最終報收97.13。

現貨黃金週一亞市早盤開於1238.70美元/金衡盎司後,金價短暫下挫,錄得日內低點1235.50美元/金衡盎司後轉漲,金價震盪上行。歐市金價延續漲勢,不斷走高。美市多頭加大上攻力度,盤中出現直線拉升,錄得日內高點1247.80美元/金衡盎司後回落,終收於1245.70美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收跌2.23美元,或4.34%,報49.12美元/桶。因市場擔心經濟增長速度加劇放緩,恐拖累原油的需求面表現,且市場對產油國能否嚴格執行減產還存在疑慮,使得油價承壓下跌,不過美元指數大跌為油價帶來了一定支撐。

美國股市週一下跌,由於市場越來越擔心聯準會(Fed)升息計劃可能對經濟和股市造成過大影響,推動S&P500指數創下年內新低。道瓊工業指數收低507.53點,或2.11%,報23592.98點;標普500指數收跌54.01點,或2.08%,報2545.94點;納斯達克指數收跌156.93點,或2.27%,報6753.73點。

個股方面,亞馬遜(AMZN)下跌4.46%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌 1.51%;臉書(FB)股價下跌2.69%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.48%;蘋果(AAPL)下跌 0.93%;美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.04%;高盛(GS)下跌 2.72%;富國銀行(WFC)上揚0.13%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌 1.35%。

日本股市週一上漲,因日經225指數14日暴跌逾400點,吸引低接買盤湧入,也提振日經指數17日反彈走揚,終場漲0.62%或132.05點,收21,506.88點。

個股方面,日本印刷電路板大廠CMK狂崩17.63%亮燈跌停,CMK 14日坦承,在未獲得顧客端同意的情況下,為了趕交期,擅自變更製造工程、生產據點,甚或委由外部企業生產顧客所下的訂單。CMK表示,上述不正當行為恐自十幾年前就已開始。Sony跌0.27%、Panasonic跌0.41%。日本電視廠商明年OLED電視銷售量有望首度突破100萬台,Sony、Panasonic傳出2019年對LGD所下的OLED面板訂單較2018年飆增6成。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收跌,下破113關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格進一步考驗112.400一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向113.100一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜反彈收漲,持穩1.13一線上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能微增,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市看來,價格支撐位依舊看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,小幅探高至1.26454一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.24700一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至1247一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱溫和,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市來看,金價阻力位進一步指向1250一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1234一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜破位下跌,失守50關口。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,油價支撐位進一步考驗46一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向51.40一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,刷新近期新低至23463一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24500一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23400一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收跌,一度反彈至21490一線后跳水。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21500一線,下行支撐位看向20900一線。

 

17 十二月 2018

Daily Market View


Daily Market View

Monday, December 17, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24123 2605.00 6621.50
-2.02% -1.91% -2.26%

U.S stocks closed at their lowest level since April, with Treasuries rising alongside the yen, as mounting concern over the health of the global economy overshadowed positive trade developments and signs of strength from the American consumer. The S&P 500 Index tumbled 1.9 percent Friday, after testing February lows, erasing the week’s gains. Health-care and technology stocks were among the biggest decliners. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank almost 500 points, led by Johnson & Johnson’s biggest rout in years amid mounting legal peril. Retailers retreated even after monthly data indicated U.S. consumers are still spending. Oil and gold fell. The sour mood on Wall Street came after equities slumped from Asia to Europe on concern that Chinese growth is slowing. President Donald Trump attributed the latest data to his trade war, even suggesting a deal could come soon. Investors took little solace in that, and earlier signs that trade tension was easing didn’t do much to calm nerves. The Federal Reserve holds its final policy meeting of 2018 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

U.K Rightmove House Prices (YoY) 00:01    

dec

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits 09:00    

oct

Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) 10:00    

nov

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 10:00   2.2%

dec

Canada International Securities Transactions 13:30    

dec

U.S Empire Manufacturing 13:30    

nov

Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) 14:00    

dec

U.S NAHB Housing Market Index 15:00    

oct

U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows 21:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow fell sharply on Friday, ending the week on a bleak note and sending the index into correction territory after a batch of weaker-than-expected economic data out of China and Europe sparked fresh worries about the state of the world’s second-biggest economy and prospects for global growth. The Dow fell 496.87 points, or 2%, for its lowest close since May 3. The drop left the Dow more than 10% below its Oct. 3 record high, meeting the widely used definition of a correction. The blue-chip gauge joined the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ in correction territory. Fresh evidence that global trade tensions are hitting the world’s second-biggest economy emerged Friday.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ dropped 58.59 points, or 0.8%, marking its lowest close since Nov. 20. Shares of Costco Wholesale Corp. fell 8.6%, after a Thursday evening earnings release showed the retailer missed revenue expectations for the fiscal first quarter. Adobe Inc. stock fell more than 7%, after the software company missed earnings expectations for the fourth quarter. Retail sales rose 0.2% in November from the month previous, surpassing expectations of a 0.1% jump.

Oil

Oil traders will stay fixated on global growth prospects in the week ahead, after prices got hammered last week by worries that the ongoing U.S-China trade dispute will drag on global growth and, by extension, erode energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled $1.38, or roughly 2.6%, on Friday to settle at $51.20 a barrel by close of trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, WTI prices lost about 2.7%. With just about two weeks to the end of 2018, WTI remains down about 15% on the year and some 32% lower from four-year highs of nearly $77 per barrel hit in early October. Brent is down about 10% on the year and nearly 32% lower from four-year highs of nearly $87 per barrel hit two months ago. Fresh weekly data on U.S. commercial crude inventories to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer and whether output levels will continue to rise will capture the market’s attention this week.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eased for the second straight session to hit a one-week low on Friday as the dollar rose, putting the metal on track to post its biggest weekly fall in five ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Spot gold was 0.3 percent lower at $1,238.29 per ounce. Earlier in the session, prices hit their lowest since Dec. 6 at $1,236.80. The metal is down about 0.8 percent so far this week. U.S. gold futures were down 0.4 percent at $1,242.20 per ounce. The dollar gained as investors turned nervous about an economic slowdown in China and was further supported by weakness in the euro and pound. A firm dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. It seems to be a broader market sentiment as there is a drop across the precious complex. The dollar has strengthened and that’s being reflected in gold’s downward movement. Markets are awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18-19, where the U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year. The more interesting aspect would be what the indications are from the Fed for their plans for 2019 as we’ve seen a shift in market expectations on how much tightening we might see next year, so comments leading to that situation would be keenly watched. Gold has fallen around 9 percent since April, hit by rising U.S. interest rates and as investors chose the dollar as a safe haven rather than gold amid the U.S.-China trade dispute. Bullion is also on track to post an annual decline of about 5 percent, after rising for the previous two years. However, analysts are more optimistic on gold in 2019. Among other precious metals, spot palladium eased 1.2 percent to $1,245.30 per ounce, having hit an all-time high of $1,269.25 in the previous session. The metal was on track for its third week of gains, with prices up about 1.2 percent so far. Silver fell 1.1 percent to $14.60 per ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell on Friday for a second session as traders reacted to smaller-than-expected purchases this week by China coupled with ballooning global supplies. Corn futures firmed on prospects for China to start buying U.S supplies of the yellow grain, while wheat declined from a two-month high.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, December 14, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24607 24626 24054 24123 -450
S & P 500 SPM18 2649.25 2652.5 2597.25 2605 -42.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6774.25 6785.75 6608.5 6621.5 -152.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26208 26234 26016 26035 -492
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21625 21685 21270 21315 -475
FTSE 100 FTH18 6757.5 6801 6721.5 6735 -113
Gold GCJ18 1246 1247 1236.2 1240.8 -5.2
Silver SIK18 1481 1482.5 1454.5 1463 -19
Copper HGK18 276.75 277 272.8 275.8 -0.95
Crude Oil CLK18 52.78 52.91 50.81 51.3 -1.52
Wheat WK18 534.75 537.5 527.5 529.75 -5.75
Soybeans SK18 906.5 909.75 900 900 -6.5
Corn CK18 383.25 387 382.75 384.25 0.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23337 23696 23909 24268 24481 24840 25053
SPM18 2528.75 2563.00 2584.00 2618.25 2639.25 2673.50 2694.50
NDM18 6380.83 6494.67 6558.08 6671.92 6735.33 6849.17 6912.58
HSH18 25738 25877 25956 26095 26174 26313 26392
NKH18 20747 21008 21162 21423 21577 21838 21992
FTH18 6624.50 6673.00 6704.00 6752.50 6783.50 6832.00 6863.00
GCJ18 1224.87 1230.53 1235.67 1241.33 1246.47 1252.13 1257.27
SIK18 1422.83 1438.67 1450.83 1466.67 1478.83 1494.67 1506.83
HGK18 269.20 271.00 273.40 275.20 277.60 279.40 281.80
CLK18 48.34 49.57 50.44 51.67 52.54 53.77 54.64
WK18 515.67 521.58 525.67 531.58 535.67 541.58 545.67
SK18 887.00 893.50 896.75 903.25 906.50 913.00 916.25
CK18 378.08 380.42 382.33 384.67 386.58 388.92 390.83

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-17

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週五(12月14日)收漲,日內公佈的數據喜憂參半。數據顯示,美國11月零售銷售月率為0.2%,低於前值0.8%;美國11月核心零售銷售月率為0.2%,低於前值0.7%,顯示美國11月消費者支出動能似乎增強,可能進一步緩解市場對經濟放緩的擔憂。美國11月工業產出月率為0.6%,高於前值0.1%和預期值0.3%,顯示美國11月工業產出月率上漲0.6%,此數據強勁增長掩蓋製造業數據持平的事實。美國12月Markit服務業採購經理人指數初值為53.4,低於前值54.7和預期值54.6;製造業PMI初值為53.9,低於前值55.3和預期值55.0,顯示儘管經濟增速保持相對穩健,進入2019年以後,動能正將有所損失,並很可能會消退。數據公布後,美元指數最高觸及97.71,但在收盤前回落,最終報收97.45。

現貨黃金週五亞市早盤開於1241.80美元/金衡盎司後,金價震盪上漲,錄得日內高點1242.80美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行。歐市延續跌勢,先轉入盤整後再度下挫。美市盤中出現大幅拋壓,金價跳水,錄得日內低點1232.55美元/金衡盎司後,多頭反攻,金價震盪上行,終收於1238.00美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五收跌1.49美元,或2.82%,報51.35美元/桶。由於悲觀情緒蔓延,因此在原油供應量出現實質性下降前,油價的任何反彈都可能觸發獲利了結或是多頭回補,使得油價暫時很難出現實質性上漲。

美國股市週五下跌,由於擔心全球經濟增長放緩,美股金融股受銀行股拖累,加入了能源股和材料股的熊市行列。中國消費和工業生產數據放緩後,儘管美國零售銷售強勁,經濟學家將美國第四季經濟增長預期上調至3%,但美股依舊大跌。道瓊工業指數收低496.87點,或2.02%,報24,100.51點;標普500指數收跌50.59點,或1.91%,報2,599.95點;納斯達克指數收挫159.67點,或2.26%,報6,910.66點。

個股方面,臉書(FB)下跌0.66%。亞馬遜(AMZN)領跌,跌幅達4.01%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌3.33%;蘋果(AAPL)下跌3.20%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.03%,美國醫療保健大廠「嬌生」週五傳出早在47年前就知道嬰兒爽身粉中含致癌石綿(Asbestos),受此消息拖累,嬌生(JNJ) 慘跌10.04%。

日本股市週五下跌,因日經225指數12月12-13日飆漲約670點,加上市場靜待美國即將公布的經濟數據,引發了結獲利的賣壓湧現,拖累日經225指數14日以低盤開出後、指數跌幅就一路擴大,開低走低,終場重挫2.02%或441.36點,收21,374.83點。

個股方面,Sony下跌1.66%,降價活動奏功,Sony PS4遊戲機上週日本銷售量飆增4.4倍、創10個月高,不過仍不敵任天堂Switch遊戲機。日本郵政傳出將出資3,000億日元、取得美國壽險公司Aflac 7-8%股權,且最終有望成為最大股東。於日本掛牌的Aflac飆漲4.93%、日本郵政跌1.08%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,最低探至113.205一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱萎靡,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐考驗113關口。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向113.800一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低觸及1.12686一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能縮減殆盡,雙線死叉,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位進一步下看1.12000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位考驗1.13500一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低探至1.25281一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.24800一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.27000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜延續回落,最低觸及1232一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1249一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜回落收跌,基本回吐前一交易日升幅。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標向下。後市來看,油價依舊考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位看向53.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜回落收跌,回撤至24000關口附近尋求支撐。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24700一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23800一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜收跌,最低探至21180一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21800一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。

 

 

14 十二月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Friday, December 14, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24573 2647.75 6774.00
-0.04% -0.40% -0.77%

U.S stocks gave back most of their morning gains as of midday yesterday as investors continue to digest headlines surrounding the potential for a U.S-China trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3 points, or less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 index fell 6 points or 0.1%. The NASDAQ traded down 47 points, or 0.7%. At session highs early yesterday, the Dow was up 214 points, the S&P 15 points, while the NASDAQ briefly traded up 56 points. U.S.-China trade concerns remained at fore of investor minds, as they continue to digest headlines from earlier in the week that suggested the Chinese were ready to make significant concessions to their industrial policy and reduce tariffs on imported autos, while President Trump indicated he would intervene in the arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou if it would help ensure a trade deal with China. The perception of progress was tempered by news late Wednesday that China had arrested a second Canadian diplomat in apparent retaliation for Meng’s arrest.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

Summit of EU Leaders      

dec

Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing 00:30   52.2

nov

China Retail Sales (YoY) 02:00 8.8% 8.6%

oct

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) 04:30   4.2%

dec

Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI 08:30 51.7 51.8

dec

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 09:00 51.8 51.8

nov

U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) 13:30 0.1% 0.8%

nov

U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production 14:15 0.3% 0.3%

dec

Markit US Manufacturing PMI 14:45 55.1 55.3
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Procter & Gamble Company, which rose 2.62% or 2.46 points to trade at 96.49 at the close. Meanwhile, McDonald’s Corporation added 1.61% or 2.95 points to end at 186.43 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 1.28% or 1.00 points to 79.01 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 1.87% or 1.39 points to trade at 72.93 at the close. DowDuPont Inc. declined 1.05% or 0.57 points to end at 53.78 and American Express Company was down 0.73% or 0.78 points to 106.70.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 0.39%. The top performers were Adial Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 104.93% to 4.16, Cancer Genetics Inc. which was up 55.32% at 0.365 and Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc. which gained 22.86% to close at 0.430. The worst performers were Applied Genetic which was down 47.10% to 3.47 in late trade, CounterPath Corp which lost 22.53% to settle at 1.410 and LogicBio Therapeutics Inc. which was down 21.77% to 9.70 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose yesterday, after data showed inventory declines in the United States and as investors began to expect that the global oil market could have a deficit sooner than they had previously thought. OPEC’s output agreement with Russia and Canada’s decision to mandate production cuts could create an oil market supply deficit by the second quarter of next year, if the top producers stick to their deal, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report. U.S crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S crude futures, fell by nearly 822,000 barrels in the week through Dec. 11, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. Stockpiles fell by 1.2 million barrels in the week to Dec. 7, disappointing some investors who had expected a decrease of 3 million barrels. The data showed stockpiles jumping by 1.1 million barrels in Cushing during that week. U.S West Texas Intermediate light crude rose 86 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $52.01.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eased to its lowest in nearly one week yesterday as the dollar rose and investors latched on to gains in global stocks, while palladium touched record highs on expectations of higher demand. Spot gold eased 0.2 percent to $1,243.27 per ounce, while U.S gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,247.50 per ounce. The dollar gained against a basket of major currencies, helped by a dip in the euro after the European Central Bank reduced growth and inflation projections for next year and said the balance of risk was tilted toward the downside. It looks like ECB President Mario Draghi was a little more dovish than expected, so we are seeing the euro currency back off and the dollar strengthening, and this is weighing on gold prices. Also weighing on bullion was an upbeat sentiment for risk, with global stock markets receiving a boost on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. With equities rebounding this week, gold has fallen slightly out of favor as traders unwound their safe-haven bets. Markets would now be turning their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18-19, with the focus on the future path of interest rate hikes in 2019. If the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, we should see the dollar quickly retreat and that should give gold an opportunity to rally. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making it cheaper for holders of other currencies. Gold’s recent breakout above the $1,240 resistance means the path of least resistance is still to the upside and it should get a lift if the dollar were to fall on the back of a dovish Fed. Among other precious metals, spot palladium was down 0.7 percent at $1,253.24 per ounce. Silver was steady at $14.73 per ounce, having hit $14.81 earlier, its highest since Nov. 2. Platinum fell 0.6 percent to $793.60.

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell to a one-week low yesterday as confirmation of a 1.13 million-tonnes U.S soybean sale to China failed to impress traders who are shifting their focus to burdensome U.S and global supplies. Wheat futures neared a two-month top, supported by signs of rising global prices, while corn futures were little changed.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, December 13, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24591 24768 24499 24573 18
S & P 500 SPM18 2657.5 2675 2641 2647.75 -3.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6799.75 6864 6748.75 6774 8.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26384 26621 26308 26527 294
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21610 21800 21600 21790 170
FTSE 100 FTH18 6886 6911 6846 6848 -3.5
Gold GCJ18 1250.7 1251.4 1244.1 1246 -4.4
Silver SIK18 1483 1488.5 1475.5 1482 -0.5
Copper HGK18 276.7 280.35 276.3 276.75 0.4
Crude Oil CLK18 51.16 53.23 50.32 52.82 1.66
Wheat WK18 528.25 538.25 527 535.5 9.5
Soybeans SK18 918.5 919.5 904.75 906.5 -13
Corn CK18 384 385.75 382.25 383.75 -1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24190 24344 24459 24613 24728 24882 24997
SPM18 2600.17 2620.58 2634.17 2654.58 2668.17 2688.58 2702.17
NDM18 6611.92 6680.33 6727.17 6795.58 6842.42 6910.83 6957.67
HSH18 26037 26172 26350 26485 26663 26798 26976
NKH18 21460 21530 21660 21730 21860 21930 22060
FTH18 6760.67 6803.33 6825.67 6868.33 6890.67 6933.33 6955.67
GCJ18 1235.63 1239.87 1242.93 1247.17 1250.23 1254.47 1257.53
SIK18 1462.50 1469.00 1475.50 1482.00 1488.50 1495.00 1501.50
HGK18 271.20 273.75 275.25 277.80 279.30 281.85 283.35
CLK18 48.11 49.21 51.02 52.12 53.93 55.03 56.84
WK18 517.67 522.33 528.92 533.58 540.17 544.83 551.42
SK18 886.25 895.50 901.00 910.25 915.75 925.00 930.50
CK18 378.58 380.42 382.08 383.92 385.58 387.42 389.08

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 市場報告                     2018-12-14

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週四(12月13日)收漲,歐市盤中歐洲央行宣布利率維持不變,使得歐元應聲下滑,美元趁機攀升。美市盤中日內公布的上週初請失業救濟金人數為20.6萬人,低於前值23.1萬人,及預期值22.5萬人,為美元指數上漲帶來助力,錄得日內高點97.29。但在收盤前回落,收回日內漲幅,最終報收97.09。

現貨黃金週四亞市早盤開於1245.30美元/金衡盎司後,金價區間震盪,錄得日內高點1246.50美元/金衡盎司後轉跌。歐市金價轉入盤整後再度下挫,盤中出現大幅拋壓,金價跳水。美市多頭反攻多空激烈交戰,振幅加大,錄得日內低點1239.90美元/金衡盎司後盤整,終收於1241.90美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油收漲1.67美元,或3.26%,報52.84美元/桶。國際能源署(IEA)表示,鑑於伊朗和委內瑞拉等國的產量下滑,石油輸出國組織(OPEC)的實際減產幅度可能是計劃中的兩倍,且中美貿易談話透露出利好跡象,使得風險情緒好轉,為油價提供有效支撐。但歐洲央行宣布維持利率不變,使得歐元應聲下滑,美元指數趁機攀升,限制了油價的上行空間。

美國股市週四漲跌不一,其中公用事業、石油和天然氣和生活消費品等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高;與此同時,基礎材料、電信和消費服務板塊等下跌的使股指走低。道瓊工業指數上漲70.11點,或0.29%,報24,597.38點;標普500指數收跌0.53點或0.02%,報2,650.54點;納斯達克指數收跌27.98點,或0.39%,報7,070.33點。

個股方面,Netflix(NFLX)上漲0.41%;臉書(FB)股價上漲0.35%;亞馬遜(AMZN)下跌0.31%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌0.02%;蘋果(AAPL)上漲 1.09%;美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.53%;高盛(GS)下跌0.46%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌 1.49%;摩根大通(JPM)上漲0.10%。

日本股市週四上漲,因中美貿易談判有進展,海運、鋼鐵等今年來跌幅頗大的景氣敏感類股大漲,也激勵日經225指數13日持續走揚,終場漲0.99%或213.44點,收21,816.19點。

個股方面,新日鐵住金大漲2.13%、JFE Holdings勁揚1.79%、商船三井大漲2.05%、日本郵船勁揚1.64%。軟銀下挫1.30%。軟銀傳出將捨棄華為,計畫將華為等中國製基地台自現行的4G設備中移除、更換成歐廠產品,且5G基地台也將向歐廠下單。任天堂上揚0.46%,新遊戲軟體「任天堂明星大亂鬥 特別版」夯爆,Switch日本銷量飆增1.6倍,累計銷售量突破600萬台、破600萬台的速度比PS4快上一倍。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜溫和收漲,最高探至113.694一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗113.200一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊指向113.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜震荡微跌,交投於1.13600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能微縮,RSI指標走平。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,小幅探高至1.26856一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.26000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,溫和回撤至1239一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1253一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜反彈收漲,最低觸及50.34一線後走高。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上。後市來看,油價依舊考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位進一步看向53.80一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜基本收平,震蕩交投於24560一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標走平。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力位依舊考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24200一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜低開收漲,最高探至21845一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22100一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。