市場報告                     2018-12-20

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週三(12月19日)收跌,亞市盤中美元指數位於96.8附近做區間震盪,美市盤中美國公佈 11月成屋銷售年化總數(萬戶)公佈值為532萬戶,高於前值522萬戶和市場預測的520萬戶,美元指數並沒有因此受到提振,因中東傳來消息,特朗普下令從敘利亞全面撤軍。消息傳來之後美元受到打壓下跌,盤中最低來到96.56,緊接著美聯儲公佈利率決定宣佈加息25個基點,將聯邦基金利率目標區間由原本的2.00-2.25%上調至2.25-2.50%,和市場預測相同,美元指數聞訊上漲盤中最高來到97.10,美元指數最終收在97.03。

現貨黃金週三收跌,亞市早盤開於1249.20美元/金衡盎司後,金價位於1249.00美元/金衡盎司左右區間震盪,美市開盤受到美元指數下跌影響,資金紛紛流入黃金,盤中最高來到1257.75美元/金衡盎司,美市盤中美聯儲宣布加息,美元指數受到提振,黃金受到打壓下跌,盤中最低來到1241.50美元/金衡盎司,黃金最終收在1242.85美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收漲1.15美元,或2.49%,報47.37美元/桶。美國能源資訊署(EIA)週三公佈報告顯示,截至12月14日當周,美國原油庫存減少49.7萬桶,低於前值減少的120.8萬桶,雖然美國原油庫存報告整體利空,但美聯儲暗示明年加息次數將減少,從而幫助油價在18日大跌之後收復部分失地。

美國股市週三大幅下挫,此前儘管美聯儲預計明年可能放慢升息步伐,但投資者原本預期聯儲貨幣政策會更偏鴿派,鮑威爾在講話表示,他認為美聯儲不會改變讓資產負債表繼續自動縮減的政策,這使投資者擔心金融環境收緊將令金融市場進一步承壓。道瓊工業指數收挫351.98點,或1.49%,報23323.66點;標普500指數收跌39.2點,或1.54%,報2506.96點;那斯達克指數收低147.08點,或2.17%,報6636.83點。

個股方面,Facebook(FB)股價跌7.25%,為7月來最大百分比跌幅。紐約時報報導,該公司允許一些企業獲得使用者資訊的程度超過披露情況,公司稱,只有在使用者允許的情況下,其他企業才可以獲得使用者資訊。聯邦快遞(FDX)股價重挫12.33%,創10年來最大單日跌幅,之前該公司調降2019年業績預估。美光(MU)股價也大跌7.92%,之前該公司的溫和財測加劇了對行業榮景消散的擔憂。

日本股市週三下跌,因市場靜待美國聯邦公開市場委員會會議結果,加上19日正式掛牌上市的電信大廠軟銀沒蜜月行情,首日表現慘,衝擊投資人信心,也拖累日經225指數19日持續走跌、失守21000點整數關卡,終場跌0.60%或127.53點,收20987.92點。

個股方面,軟銀集團下挫0.91%,SBG旗下電信大廠軟銀19日正式掛牌,惟掛牌首日沒出現蜜月行情。豐田汽車跌0.19%,豐田衝刺電動化車款銷售,力拼2020年銷售量增4成、佔整體新車銷售量比重約1/4。工具機廠DMG森精機大漲2.24%,美中貿易摩擦、導致中國工具機需求失速,森精機傳出將首度把在中國生產的工具機出口至印度販售。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收跌,震蕩交投於112.400一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格進一步考驗112.100一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊指向113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.14379一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位看向1.13500一線。上行方面,價格阻力位進一步考驗1.14200一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收跌,一度衝高至1.26774一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.25000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜衝高回落,一度觸及日高至1257一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向下。後市來看,金價初步阻力位指向1250一線。下行方面,金價支撐位考驗1236一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,低位交投于47一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向上脫離超賣區。後市來看,油價依舊考驗46關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向50.50一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,盤中一度反彈至24064一線后跳水走低。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標進入超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24000關口。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23000一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收跌,最低探至20525一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21200一線,下行支撐位看向20400一線。

 

19 十二月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 19, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar slid lower against a currency basket ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting

·      The Japanese Yen remained supported amid concerns over the outlook for global growth

·      The pound was higher amid an ongoing political deadlock over Britain’s efforts to exit the EU

·      Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz left the door open to a slower pace of interest rate hikes

 

 

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday as investors waited for news from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.14% to 96.41, after an overnight high of 96.63. With the Fed expected to increase rates by 25 basis points for the fourth time this year today, investors will be watching for any new comments on possible policy changes in 2019. Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, have said interest rates are nearing neutral and have become more cautious about FOMC tightening policy amid worry of slowing global growth. U.S. President Donald Trump’s critical comments on the Fed did not help the dollar’s cause either. In a tweet overnight, Trump took another swipe at the Fed, saying it was “incredible” for the central bank to even consider tightening policy given the global economic and political uncertainties. While the Fed remaining on hold would be a significant surprise and a significant U.S Dollar-negative, there is little doubt that equity market volatility is creating some headaches for policymakers. Osborne noted that Fed rate hike expectations have slipped, with markets now pricing in a 70 percent chance of a rate increase, down from a 78 percent chance on Monday. Investor confidence has deteriorated, leading to the gloomiest outlook for the world economy in a decade. The Dollar has replaced technology stocks as the most crowded trade for the first time since January. Risk-off sentiment yesterday lifted the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Yen traders are also focusing on the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Dec. 19-20, at which it is widely expected to keep policy ultra-loose as inflation remains well below its target. The Pound Sterling continues to move off of the recently struck 20-month trough after it was confirmed that the Prime Minister will ask for the British Parliament to approve her latest Brexit proposal next month. The Canadian Dollar fell against the U.S Dollar yesterday.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
07:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Low   3.1% 3.3%
09:30 U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   2.3% 2.4%
09:30 U.K Retail Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Low   3.2% 3.3%
09:30 U.K House Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium   3.3% 3.5%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (DEC 14) Medium     1.6%
13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   1.8% 2.4%
15:00 U.S Existing Home Sales (MoM) (NOV) Medium   -0.4% 1.4%
15:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (DEC 14) Medium     -1208k
19:00 U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (DEC 19) High   2.50% 2.25%
19:00 U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (DEC 19) High   2.25% 2.00%
19:00 U.S Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (DEC 20) High   2.40% 2.20%
19:30 Fed’s Powell Holds Press Conference Following FOMC Decision Medium      
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance (NOV) Medium   -880m -1295m
21:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High   2.8% 2.8%

Euro

The single currency rose yesterday as the dollar weakened, with investors betting that growth concerns will prompt the Fed to slow its pace of interest rate hikes at this week’s meeting. A rout on Wall Street following a spate of weak data globally has strengthened the view that the Fed’s widely-expected rate hike today will usher in a slowdown. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1335 and a high of 1.1401 before closing the day around 1.1359 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair remained heavily offered through the European session yesterday and tumbled to over one-week lows in the last hour. A combination of negative forces kept exerting downward pressure for the third consecutive session. The concerns were evident from the recent fall in the US Treasury bond yields. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.23 and a high of 112.84 before closing the day around 112.50 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound continues to move off of the recently struck 20-month trough after it was confirmed that the Prime Minister will ask for the British Parliament to approve her latest Brexit proposal next month. Analysts caution that Theresa May will be fighting the fight of her life in order to get her deal through to find the backing of members from her own party. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2608 and a high of 1.2703 before closing the day at 1.2638 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar steadied against its U.S counterpart yesterday, underperforming other G10 currencies as oil prices fell and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz left the door open to a slower pace of interest rate hikes. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell to its lowest since September of last year after reports of swelling inventories. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3387 and a high of 1.3494 before closing the day at 1.3462 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained earlier in yesterday’s trading session but reversed almost all the gains to end the day slightly lower. Australian Dollar has been put on the defensive by worries about slowing growth in China. The currency had been sideswiped by disappointing Chinese economic data, which in turn rippled through markets globally sending stocks sharply lower. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7164 and a high of 0.7201 before closing the day at 0.7166 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.16%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.25%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.05%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.13%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 18, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13463 1.14011 1.1335 1.13595 0.0013
USD/JPY 112.819 112.842 112.231 112.508 -0.3050
GBP/USD 1.26188 1.27039 1.2608 1.2638 0.0017
USD/CHF 0.99284 0.99357 0.98978 0.99252 -0.0002
USD/CAD 1.3405 1.34944 1.3387 1.34628 0.0059
EUR/JPY 128.025 128.09 127.619 127.808 -0.2060
GBP/JPY 142.348 142.63 141.907 142.197 -0.1420
CHF/JPY 113.596 113.648 113.231 113.318 -0.2720
AUD/JPY 80.963 81.176 80.633 80.751 -0.2040
EUR/GBP 0.89888 0.9009 0.89612 0.89869 -0.0005
EUR/CHF 1.12668 1.12947 1.2582 1.1277 0.0012
GBP/CHF 1.25292 1.25851 1.25159 1.25448 0.0016

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1263 1.1299 1.1329 1.1365 1.1395 1.1431 1.1462
USD/JPY 111.60 111.92 112.21 112.53 112.82 113.14 113.43
GBP/USD 1.2500 1.2554 1.2596 1.2650 1.2692 1.2746 1.2788
USD/CHF 0.9866 0.9882 0.9903 0.9920 0.9941 0.9957 0.9979
USD/CAD 1.3294 1.3341 1.3402 1.3448 1.3509 1.3555 1.3617
EUR/JPY 127.12 127.37 127.59 127.84 128.06 128.31 128.53
GBP/JPY 141.14 141.52 141.86 142.24 142.58 142.97 143.31
CHF/JPY 112.73 112.98 113.15 113.40 113.57 113.82 113.98
AUD/JPY 79.99 80.31 80.53 80.85 81.07 81.40 81.62
EUR/GBP 0.8915 0.8938 0.8962 0.8986 0.9010 0.9034 0.9058
EUR/CHF 1.3428 1.3005 1.2141 1.1718 1.0854 1.0431 0.9567
GBP/CHF 1.2443 1.2479 1.2512 1.2549 1.2581 1.2618 1.2651

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-19

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週二(12月18日)收跌,亞市盤中區間震盪,錄得日內高點97.17。歐式盤中轉跌,一路下滑,錄得日內低點96.70後反轉上漲。美市盤中因美聯儲將進行為期兩日的利率會議,市場預期美聯儲將加息,使得美國總統特朗普再度呼籲美聯儲停止升息。數據方面,美國11月營建許可年化總數為132.8萬戶,高於前值126.5萬戶,顯示房貸利率走高和勞動力收緊,限制房地產市場發展,且房地產市場的持續疲軟可能是經濟放緩的信號。數據公布後,美元指數持續上漲,最終報收97.06。

現貨黃金週二收漲,亞市早盤開於1245.80美元/金衡盎司後,金價區間震盪,錄得日內低點1244.80美元/金衡盎司後反彈,金價震盪上行。歐市盤中金價延續漲勢,不斷走高,錄得日內高點1250.10美元/金衡盎司後回落。美市盤中金價再反彈,多頭奮力上攻,終收於1249.20美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收跌2.90美元,或5.90%,報46.22美元/桶。美國和俄羅斯產量維持紀錄高位,且雖然主要產油國可以協同進行減產,但各國最終都會以自身利益為主,令原油供應過剩的擔憂日益加重。原油盤中錄得日內低點46.10美元/桶,刷新2017年8月以來新低。

美國股市週二上漲,由於美墨邊境興建圍牆預算問題僵持不下,導致美政府運作可能停擺、油價大幅下跌引發能源股拋售。道瓊工業指數收高82.66點,或0.35%,報23675.64點;標普500指數收高0.22點,或0.01%,報2546.16點;那斯達克指數收漲30.18點,或0.45%,報6783.91點。

個股方面,亞馬遜(AMZN)上漲2.01%;Netflix(NFLX)上漲3.10%;臉書(FB)股價上漲2.48%;Alphabet(GOOGL)上漲1.73%;蘋果(AAPL)上漲1.30%;美國石油工業之王埃克森美孚(XOM)下跌2.76%,雪佛龍(CVX)下跌2.41%;IBM(IBM)上漲0.47%;美光(MU)上漲0.68%。

日本股市週二下跌,因美股17日重挫,加上中國在18日舉行的改革開放40週年紀念日的演說上未提到如何化解中美衝突,拖累日經225指數18日重挫、創低,終場下挫1.82%或391.43點,收21115.45點。

個股方面,日本中小尺寸液晶面板大廠Japan Display Inc重挫3.49%,美中貿易摩擦影響JDI重建之路,傳出若JDI引進陸資、蘋果恐將拒用JDI液晶面板。日本武田藥品工業暴跌8.95%,收購Shire恐讓武田有息負債狂飆,穆迪大砍武田評等。FDK狂飆9.52%。FDK發表IoT用全固態電池,將在12月20日開始送樣。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收跌,最低探至112.247一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格進一步考驗112.200一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,一度探高至1.14000一線上方後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.27044一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.25000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,溫和探高至1250一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,金價阻力位進一步指向1252一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1244一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜延續下跌,最低探至46.10一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,油價考驗46關口支撐力度,跌破將打開更多下行空間。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向50.40一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投於23600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24400一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23400一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜窄幅震蕩,交投於21000關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21500一線,下行支撐位看向20800一線。

 

市場報告                     2018-12-18

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週一(12月17日)收跌,日內公佈的數據較弱。數據顯示,美國12月紐約聯儲製造業指數為10.9,遠低於前值23.3和預期值20.2。美國12月NAHB房產市場指數為56,低於前值60和預期值61,因缺乏可建土地及建築材料成本增加,使得房屋供給受到抑制,同時貸款成本也提高,減少了潛在的買家。數據公布後,並未對美元指數帶來提振,反而持續下跌,錄得日內低點97.05後,但在收盤前上漲,最終報收97.13。

現貨黃金週一亞市早盤開於1238.70美元/金衡盎司後,金價短暫下挫,錄得日內低點1235.50美元/金衡盎司後轉漲,金價震盪上行。歐市金價延續漲勢,不斷走高。美市多頭加大上攻力度,盤中出現直線拉升,錄得日內高點1247.80美元/金衡盎司後回落,終收於1245.70美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收跌2.23美元,或4.34%,報49.12美元/桶。因市場擔心經濟增長速度加劇放緩,恐拖累原油的需求面表現,且市場對產油國能否嚴格執行減產還存在疑慮,使得油價承壓下跌,不過美元指數大跌為油價帶來了一定支撐。

美國股市週一下跌,由於市場越來越擔心聯準會(Fed)升息計劃可能對經濟和股市造成過大影響,推動S&P500指數創下年內新低。道瓊工業指數收低507.53點,或2.11%,報23592.98點;標普500指數收跌54.01點,或2.08%,報2545.94點;納斯達克指數收跌156.93點,或2.27%,報6753.73點。

個股方面,亞馬遜(AMZN)下跌4.46%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌 1.51%;臉書(FB)股價下跌2.69%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.48%;蘋果(AAPL)下跌 0.93%;美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.04%;高盛(GS)下跌 2.72%;富國銀行(WFC)上揚0.13%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌 1.35%。

日本股市週一上漲,因日經225指數14日暴跌逾400點,吸引低接買盤湧入,也提振日經指數17日反彈走揚,終場漲0.62%或132.05點,收21,506.88點。

個股方面,日本印刷電路板大廠CMK狂崩17.63%亮燈跌停,CMK 14日坦承,在未獲得顧客端同意的情況下,為了趕交期,擅自變更製造工程、生產據點,甚或委由外部企業生產顧客所下的訂單。CMK表示,上述不正當行為恐自十幾年前就已開始。Sony跌0.27%、Panasonic跌0.41%。日本電視廠商明年OLED電視銷售量有望首度突破100萬台,Sony、Panasonic傳出2019年對LGD所下的OLED面板訂單較2018年飆增6成。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收跌,下破113關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格進一步考驗112.400一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向113.100一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜反彈收漲,持穩1.13一線上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能微增,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市看來,價格支撐位依舊看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,小幅探高至1.26454一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.24700一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至1247一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱溫和,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市來看,金價阻力位進一步指向1250一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1234一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜破位下跌,失守50關口。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,油價支撐位進一步考驗46一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向51.40一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,刷新近期新低至23463一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24500一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23400一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收跌,一度反彈至21490一線后跳水。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21500一線,下行支撐位看向20900一線。

 

市場報告                     2018-12-17

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週五(12月14日)收漲,日內公佈的數據喜憂參半。數據顯示,美國11月零售銷售月率為0.2%,低於前值0.8%;美國11月核心零售銷售月率為0.2%,低於前值0.7%,顯示美國11月消費者支出動能似乎增強,可能進一步緩解市場對經濟放緩的擔憂。美國11月工業產出月率為0.6%,高於前值0.1%和預期值0.3%,顯示美國11月工業產出月率上漲0.6%,此數據強勁增長掩蓋製造業數據持平的事實。美國12月Markit服務業採購經理人指數初值為53.4,低於前值54.7和預期值54.6;製造業PMI初值為53.9,低於前值55.3和預期值55.0,顯示儘管經濟增速保持相對穩健,進入2019年以後,動能正將有所損失,並很可能會消退。數據公布後,美元指數最高觸及97.71,但在收盤前回落,最終報收97.45。

現貨黃金週五亞市早盤開於1241.80美元/金衡盎司後,金價震盪上漲,錄得日內高點1242.80美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行。歐市延續跌勢,先轉入盤整後再度下挫。美市盤中出現大幅拋壓,金價跳水,錄得日內低點1232.55美元/金衡盎司後,多頭反攻,金價震盪上行,終收於1238.00美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五收跌1.49美元,或2.82%,報51.35美元/桶。由於悲觀情緒蔓延,因此在原油供應量出現實質性下降前,油價的任何反彈都可能觸發獲利了結或是多頭回補,使得油價暫時很難出現實質性上漲。

美國股市週五下跌,由於擔心全球經濟增長放緩,美股金融股受銀行股拖累,加入了能源股和材料股的熊市行列。中國消費和工業生產數據放緩後,儘管美國零售銷售強勁,經濟學家將美國第四季經濟增長預期上調至3%,但美股依舊大跌。道瓊工業指數收低496.87點,或2.02%,報24,100.51點;標普500指數收跌50.59點,或1.91%,報2,599.95點;納斯達克指數收挫159.67點,或2.26%,報6,910.66點。

個股方面,臉書(FB)下跌0.66%。亞馬遜(AMZN)領跌,跌幅達4.01%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌3.33%;蘋果(AAPL)下跌3.20%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.03%,美國醫療保健大廠「嬌生」週五傳出早在47年前就知道嬰兒爽身粉中含致癌石綿(Asbestos),受此消息拖累,嬌生(JNJ) 慘跌10.04%。

日本股市週五下跌,因日經225指數12月12-13日飆漲約670點,加上市場靜待美國即將公布的經濟數據,引發了結獲利的賣壓湧現,拖累日經225指數14日以低盤開出後、指數跌幅就一路擴大,開低走低,終場重挫2.02%或441.36點,收21,374.83點。

個股方面,Sony下跌1.66%,降價活動奏功,Sony PS4遊戲機上週日本銷售量飆增4.4倍、創10個月高,不過仍不敵任天堂Switch遊戲機。日本郵政傳出將出資3,000億日元、取得美國壽險公司Aflac 7-8%股權,且最終有望成為最大股東。於日本掛牌的Aflac飆漲4.93%、日本郵政跌1.08%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,最低探至113.205一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱萎靡,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐考驗113關口。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向113.800一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低觸及1.12686一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能縮減殆盡,雙線死叉,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位進一步下看1.12000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位考驗1.13500一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低探至1.25281一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.24800一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.27000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜延續回落,最低觸及1232一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1249一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜回落收跌,基本回吐前一交易日升幅。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標向下。後市來看,油價依舊考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位看向53.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜回落收跌,回撤至24000關口附近尋求支撐。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24700一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23800一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜收跌,最低探至21180一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21800一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。

 

 

14 十二月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 14, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S unemployment claims dropped to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand

·      U.S inflation was flat in November, dropping from 0.3 percent a month earlier

·      UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence yesterday

·      ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent and marked down its outlook on regional growth

The U.S Dollar was higher yesterday, as the number of people who filed for first-time unemployment benefits hit a two-and-a-half month low. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.19% to 97.20. The dollar was boosted after the U.S Department of Labor said that the number of individuals applying for initial jobless benefits in the seven days ended Dec. 8 decreased by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000. Meanwhile the pound was slightly higher after UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening. Brexit woes continue despite the victory, as it seems unlikely that May’s party will support her agreement with Brussels on leaving the European Union in March. The euro fell against the dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. On the other hand, ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Sterling held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. Traders’ attempt to extend sterling’ gains faded on uncertainty on what more May, who is currently in Brussels, could get from EU leaders to improve on her Brexit proposal. On Monday, May scrapped a parliamentary vote on her current plan, sending the pound to a 20-month low against the dollar and triggering a no-confidence vote on her leadership. The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell after data on Wednesday showed a smaller-than-expected drawdown in U.S crude stockpiles. U.S crude oil futures were down 0.6 per cent at $50.86 a barrel.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  Summit of EU Leaders High      
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (DEC) Medium     52.2
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV) Medium   8.8% 8.6%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) Medium   5.9% 5.9%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) Medium     4.2%
08:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.7 51.8
09:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.8 51.8
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (NOV) High   0.1% 0.8%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (NOV) Medium   0.4% 0.3%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Control Group (NOV) Medium   0.5% 0.3%
14:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.1%
14:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.3%
14:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   55.1 55.3
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (DEC) Medium   55 54.7
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (DEC 14) Medium     1075

 

Euro

The single currency fell against the Dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40%. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1329 and a high of 1.1392 before closing the day around 1.1356 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen moved lower in yesterday’s trading session. In the U.S, unemployment claims dropped sharply to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand. Japan’s manufacturing sector is being squeezed by the ongoing U.S-China trade war, which is having a chilling effect on the Japanese economy. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.18 and a high of 113.68 before closing the day around 113.59 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. It had rallied on Wednesday in anticipation as traders bet her win might allow her to negotiate more generous terms for Britain in its exit from the European Union in March. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2608 and a high of 1.2684 before closing the day at 1.2657 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The U.S dollar rose against a basket of major currencies after the European Central Bank trimmed its growth and inflation projections for next year, pressuring the euro. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3336 and a high of 1.3381 before closing the day at 1.3351 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is holding near a one-week high as riskier assets are boosted by signs of progress in Sino-US trade relations. But most of the action in the forex world was in the British pound with most other currencies bystanders amid high political drama in Britain, where Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote on her leadership. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7210 and a high of 0.7244 before closing the day at 0.7228 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.22%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.57%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.40%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.30%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.31%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1368 1.1392 1.13297 1.13563 -0.0011
USD/JPY 113.291 113.689 113.186 113.597 0.3320
GBP/USD 1.26258 1.26846 1.26083 1.26577 0.0032
USD/CHF 0.99334 0.99525 0.99098 0.9938 0.0005
USD/CAD 1.33487 1.33816 1.3336 1.33514 0.0003
EUR/JPY 128.802 129.231 128.685 129.048 0.2840
GBP/JPY 143.056 143.909 142.867 143.803 0.8110
CHF/JPY 114.027 114.418 113.937 114.256 0.2620
AUD/JPY 81.797 82.174 81.657 82.066 0.3300
EUR/GBP 0.90025 0.90129 0.89504 0.89733 -0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.12937 1.12999 1.12637 1.12924 0.0000
GBP/CHF 1.25425 1.25897 1.25289 1.25822 0.0039

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1264 1.1297 1.1327 1.1359 1.1389 1.1422 1.1451
USD/JPY 112.79 112.99 113.29 113.49 113.80 113.99 114.30
GBP/USD 1.2540 1.2574 1.2616 1.2650 1.2692 1.2727 1.2768
USD/CHF 0.9872 0.9891 0.9914 0.9933 0.9957 0.9976 1.0000
USD/CAD 1.3285 1.3311 1.3331 1.3356 1.3377 1.3402 1.3422
EUR/JPY 128.20 128.44 128.75 128.99 129.29 129.53 129.84
GBP/JPY 142.10 142.48 143.14 143.53 144.19 144.57 145.23
CHF/JPY 113.51 113.72 113.99 114.20 114.47 114.68 114.95
AUD/JPY 81.24 81.45 81.76 81.97 82.27 82.48 82.79
EUR/GBP 0.8882 0.8916 0.8945 0.8979 0.9007 0.9041 0.9070
EUR/CHF 1.1235 1.1249 1.1271 1.1285 1.1307 1.1322 1.1343
GBP/CHF 1.2483 1.2506 1.2544 1.2567 1.2605 1.2628 1.2666

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 市場報告                     2018-12-14

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週四(12月13日)收漲,歐市盤中歐洲央行宣布利率維持不變,使得歐元應聲下滑,美元趁機攀升。美市盤中日內公布的上週初請失業救濟金人數為20.6萬人,低於前值23.1萬人,及預期值22.5萬人,為美元指數上漲帶來助力,錄得日內高點97.29。但在收盤前回落,收回日內漲幅,最終報收97.09。

現貨黃金週四亞市早盤開於1245.30美元/金衡盎司後,金價區間震盪,錄得日內高點1246.50美元/金衡盎司後轉跌。歐市金價轉入盤整後再度下挫,盤中出現大幅拋壓,金價跳水。美市多頭反攻多空激烈交戰,振幅加大,錄得日內低點1239.90美元/金衡盎司後盤整,終收於1241.90美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油收漲1.67美元,或3.26%,報52.84美元/桶。國際能源署(IEA)表示,鑑於伊朗和委內瑞拉等國的產量下滑,石油輸出國組織(OPEC)的實際減產幅度可能是計劃中的兩倍,且中美貿易談話透露出利好跡象,使得風險情緒好轉,為油價提供有效支撐。但歐洲央行宣布維持利率不變,使得歐元應聲下滑,美元指數趁機攀升,限制了油價的上行空間。

美國股市週四漲跌不一,其中公用事業、石油和天然氣和生活消費品等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高;與此同時,基礎材料、電信和消費服務板塊等下跌的使股指走低。道瓊工業指數上漲70.11點,或0.29%,報24,597.38點;標普500指數收跌0.53點或0.02%,報2,650.54點;納斯達克指數收跌27.98點,或0.39%,報7,070.33點。

個股方面,Netflix(NFLX)上漲0.41%;臉書(FB)股價上漲0.35%;亞馬遜(AMZN)下跌0.31%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌0.02%;蘋果(AAPL)上漲 1.09%;美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.53%;高盛(GS)下跌0.46%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌 1.49%;摩根大通(JPM)上漲0.10%。

日本股市週四上漲,因中美貿易談判有進展,海運、鋼鐵等今年來跌幅頗大的景氣敏感類股大漲,也激勵日經225指數13日持續走揚,終場漲0.99%或213.44點,收21,816.19點。

個股方面,新日鐵住金大漲2.13%、JFE Holdings勁揚1.79%、商船三井大漲2.05%、日本郵船勁揚1.64%。軟銀下挫1.30%。軟銀傳出將捨棄華為,計畫將華為等中國製基地台自現行的4G設備中移除、更換成歐廠產品,且5G基地台也將向歐廠下單。任天堂上揚0.46%,新遊戲軟體「任天堂明星大亂鬥 特別版」夯爆,Switch日本銷量飆增1.6倍,累計銷售量突破600萬台、破600萬台的速度比PS4快上一倍。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜溫和收漲,最高探至113.694一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗113.200一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊指向113.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜震荡微跌,交投於1.13600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能微縮,RSI指標走平。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,小幅探高至1.26856一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.26000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,溫和回撤至1239一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1253一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜反彈收漲,最低觸及50.34一線後走高。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上。後市來看,油價依舊考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位進一步看向53.80一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜基本收平,震蕩交投於24560一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標走平。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力位依舊考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24200一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜低開收漲,最高探至21845一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22100一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。

 

13 十二月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 13, 2018


 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates

·      The ongoing U.S-China trade war has had a chilling effect on the Japanese manufacturing sector

·      The likely outcome of Friday’s summit are a blow to German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz

·      The Canadian Dollar gained against the U.S Dollar, boosted by higher oil prices

 

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday, as inflation data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes in 2019. The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, slowing from the 0.3% increase seen in October. Analysts had forecast a 0.1% increase. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 97.09. The dollar has been under pressure recently amid expectations that the Fed will pause its pace of interest rate hikes next year, despite an expected rate increase next week. The British pound has rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. In the latest twist for sterling in a turbulent week, the pound rose to $1.2620 against the dollar and €1.1121 against the euro, as more than 150 Conservative MPs said they would vote for the PM. Business leaders reacted angrily to the fresh turmoil in Westminster, saying the latest uncertainty was bad for the economy. The US Dollar has been grinding higher against the Japanese yen for some time, but every time we get close to the ¥114 level, we pull back a bit and it looks likely that the uptrend underneath should continue to offer support. Ultimately, this is a market that should eventually make a decision, but it may not be until 2019 that it happens. Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. This missed the estimate of 2.4%. The Canadian Dollar was boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy stands to benefit if the outlook improves for the global flow of trade and capital.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (DEC) Medium 3.6%
00:01 U.K RICS House Price Balance (NOV) Medium -10.0% -10.0%
07:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 2.3% 2.3%
08:30 SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate (DEC 13) High -0.75% -0.75%
09:00 SNB’s Jordan Speaks at Press Conference in Bern High
12:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (DEC 13) High 0.00% 0.00%
12:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility (DEC 13) High 0.25% 0.25%
12:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DEC 13) High -0.40% -0.40%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium 0.1% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Export Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 3.1%
13:30 U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (NOV) Medium 0.0% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 8) Medium 225k 231k
19:00 U.S Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) Medium -$197.0b -$100.5b
23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (4Q) Medium 18 19

Euro

The single currency gained in yesterday’s session. European Union leaders will ditch proposals to use a euro zone budget for economic stabilization and restrict any funds to long-standing EU goals of convergence among their economies and increasing competitiveness, draft summit conclusions showed yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1313 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1366 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted small gains yesterday. On the release front, Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. In the U.S, consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.12 and a high of 113.50 before closing the day around 113.26 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. Sterling rose by more than 1% against the dollar and by 0.8% against the euro yesterday after Tory rebels triggered the vote on May’s leadership of their party. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2475 and a high of 1.2670 before closing the day at 1.2625 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart, boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with Reuters, said that trade talks with Beijing were under way by telephone, with more meetings likely between U.S and Chinese officials.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3320 and a high of 1.3395 before closing the day at 1.3348 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar rose along with global equities as tentative signs of easing Sino-US trade tensions whetted risk appetite. A gauge of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 0.9 per cent while US stock futures were upbeat too. Risk appetite got a boost after U.S President Donald Trump said trade talks with Beijing were already underway, with more meetings likely among US and Chinese officials. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7196 and a high of 0.7236 before closing the day at 0.7217 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.00%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.09%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.67%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.15%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 12, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13153 1.1386 1.13137 1.13669 0.0051
USD/JPY 113.356 113.502 113.121 113.265 -0.0900
GBP/USD 1.2485 1.26704 1.24753 1.26256 0.0139
USD/CHF 0.9931 0.99637 0.99112 0.99331 0.0002
USD/CAD 1.339 1.33951 1.332 1.33485 -0.0039
EUR/JPY 128.29 128.842 128.275 128.764 0.4910
GBP/JPY 141.536 143.421 141.497 142.992 1.4210
CHF/JPY 114.111 114.362 113.796 113.994 -0.1190
AUD/JPY 81.628 82.029 81.589 81.736 0.0750
EUR/GBP 0.90612 0.90673 0.89668 0.90005 -0.0061
EUR/CHF 1.12397 1.12952 1.12325 1.1292 0.0053
GBP/CHF 1.24002 1.258 1.23961 1.25432 0.0142

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1253 1.1283 1.1325 1.1356 1.1397 1.1428 1.1470
USD/JPY 112.71 112.92 113.09 113.30 113.47 113.68 113.85
GBP/USD 1.2315 1.2395 1.2510 1.2590 1.2706 1.2786 1.2901
USD/CHF 0.9856 0.9884 0.9908 0.9936 0.9961 0.9989 1.0013
USD/CAD 1.3239 1.3279 1.3314 1.3355 1.3389 1.3430 1.3464
EUR/JPY 127.85 128.06 128.41 128.63 128.98 129.19 129.55
GBP/JPY 139.93 140.71 141.85 142.64 143.78 144.56 145.70
CHF/JPY 113.17 113.48 113.74 114.05 114.31 114.62 114.87
AUD/JPY 81.10 81.34 81.54 81.78 81.98 82.22 82.42
EUR/GBP 0.8855 0.8911 0.8956 0.9012 0.9056 0.9112 0.9157
EUR/CHF 1.1189 1.1211 1.1251 1.1273 1.1314 1.1336 1.1377
GBP/CHF 1.2249 1.2323 1.2433 1.2506 1.2617 1.2690 1.2801

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-13

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週三(12月12日)下跌,今年早些發布的美國經濟數據,引發對通膨上升的擔憂,但近期美國通膨報告顯示出通膨非常溫和。數據顯示,11月消費者物價指數年率為2.2%,低於前值2.5%,符合預期;11月核心消費者物價指數年率為2.2%,高於前值2.1%,符合預期。數據公布後,美元指數轉跌,跌破97關口,錄得日內低點96.90,在收盤前回升,最終報收97.05。

現貨黃金週三亞市早盤開於1242.70美元/金衡盎司後金價下跌,錄得日內低點1241.75美元/金衡盎司。歐市盤中金價震盪上行,多空陷入激戰。美市多頭再度上攻,錄得日內高點1247.00美元/金衡盎司後,先下跌再轉盤整,終收於1245.20美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收跌0.78美元,或1.50%,報51.17美元/桶。美國能源信息署(EIA)週三公佈報告顯示,截至12月7日當週,美國原油庫存減少120.8萬桶至4.42億桶;美國周度餾分油庫存減少147.5萬桶,市場預估為增加180.1萬桶。數據公布後,雖然美國原油庫存和產量齊降為油價帶來有效支撐,但石油輸出國組織(OPEC)內部分歧,恐影響未來的減產行動,也使得市場憂慮加劇,令油價回吐日內漲幅並最終收跌。

美國股市週三上漲,受到美中利多消息頻傳,貿易樂觀情緒激勵美股三大指數全面開漲,科技股領漲,道瓊盤中一度大漲逾 450 點,爾後尾盤收斂漲幅。道瓊工業指數上漲157.03點,或0.64%,報24,527.27點;標普500指數收高14.29點,或0.54%,報2,651.07點;納斯達克指數收高66.48點,或0.95%,報7,098.31點。

個股方面,Netflix(NFLX)上漲3.60%;臉書(FB)股價上漲1.70%;亞馬遜(AMZN)上漲1.24%;Alphabet(GOOGL)上漲1.14%;蘋果(AAPL)上漲0.28%、美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.24%;高盛(GS) 下跌0.06%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌0.04%;摩根大通(JPM)上漲0.65%。

日本股市週三上漲,因華為副董事長兼財務長獲得保釋,市場期待美中緊張情勢有望因此舒緩,提振大金等中國相關類股飆漲,加上日元走貶,激勵日經225指數12日開盤後指數隨即跳空大漲200點,且之後漲幅一路擴大,終場大漲2.15%或454.73點,收21,602.75點。

個股方面,積極搶攻中國市場的嬰童用品大廠Pigeon暴漲6.14%,空調大廠大金飆漲5.36%,Fanuc勁揚1.20%,DMG森精機大漲2.11%,Okuma大漲2.33%,Panasonic大漲3.19%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,窄幅交投於113.300一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐依舊考驗113關口。上行方面,價格阻力指向113.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜反彈收漲,最高探至1.13859一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能微增,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位考驗1.14100一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜反彈收漲,最高探至1.26705一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐位指向1.25000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.26800一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,窄幅交投於1244一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1254一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1237一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收跌,最高觸及52.81一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位進一步看向53.60一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至24842一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力位考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24200一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至21820一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標大幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22100一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。

 

市場報告                     2018-12-12

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週二(12月11日)收漲,歐市盤中受到英國脫歐不確定因素加上中美貿易戰使美元指數下跌,盤中最低來到96.87,美市開盤美國公佈11月生產者物價指數月率為0.1%,低於前值0.6%,高於預期值0.0%;11月生產者物價指數年率為2.5%,低於前值2.9%,與預期值相同;11月核心生產者物價指數月率為0.3%,低於前值0.5%,高於預測值0.1%;11月核心生產者物價指數年率為2.7%,高於前值2.6%及預測值2.5%。數據公布後,美元指數上漲,最終報收97.47。

現貨黃金週二亞市早盤開於1243.90美元/金衡盎司後金價小幅攀升,不斷走高。歐市盤中金價延續漲勢,錄得日內高點1249.30美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行。美市盤中金價下跌,多空交鋒激烈,空方終佔優,錄得日內低點1240.80美元/金衡盎司後反彈,終收於1242.70美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收漲1.13美元,或2.22%,報51.95美元/桶。因利比亞的重要油田被武裝佔領而被迫關閉,令市場供應過剩憂慮有所緩解,為多頭帶來喘息,但美元指數繼續走高,依然限制油價的上行空間。

美國股市週二漲跌互見,由於中國傳出將削減美輸中汽車關稅影響,激勵早盤汽車類股大漲,但貿易樂觀情緒被美國總統川普威脅關閉美國政府、譴責中國駭客攻擊和經濟間諜活動的政治不確定性所抵消,終場S&P500和道瓊指數小幅震盪收跌。道瓊工業指數下跌53.02點,或0.22%,至24,370.24點;標普500指數下跌0.94點,或0.04%,至2,636.78;納斯達克指數上漲11.31點,或0.16%,至7,031.83。

個股方面,科技股漲跌互見,蘋果(AAPL)下跌0.57%、Netflix(NFLX)下跌1.62%;臉書(FB)股價上漲0.16%,亞馬遜(AMZN)上漲0.13%、和Alphabet(GOOGL)上漲0.80%,美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.71%;高盛(GS)下跌1.14%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌2.13%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌0.96%。

日本股市週二下跌,因日元10日走貶,提振日經225指數11日以紅盤21,273點開出,之後因市場憂心美中貿易摩擦,電子零件、半導體等景氣敏感類股下挫,也拖累日經指數翻黑走跌,終場跌0.34%或71.48點,收21,148.02點。

個股方面,日本電子零件股走跌。村田製作所下挫1.25%、TDK重挫2.27%、太陽誘電慘跌4.30%。三井高科技暴跌18.78%,創2017年2月27日以來收盤新低紀錄。半導體庫存調整擴大,電子零件事業銷售遜色,三井高科技下砍財測,華為通訊機器競爭對手富士通逆勢上揚0.20%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收涨,震蕩交投於113.300一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐依舊考驗113關口。上行方面,價格阻力進一步指向113.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續收跌,一度嘗試反彈至1.14000一線附近後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能縮減,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.12600一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜延續收跌,最低探至1.24788一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐位下看1.24000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位指向1.26800一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,一度衝高至1249一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1252一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,交投於51關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位進一步看向54.30一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收跌,最高探至24820一線後回吐升幅。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗25100一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24000關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜微幅收漲,交投於21300一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21800一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。