20 八月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

August 20, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      Dollar fell against the major currencies following softer than expected U.S consumer confidence

·      Slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the Euro

·      Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery

·      Canadian Dollar benefitted from stronger than expected consumer price growth

  

The second full week in August was a good one for the U.S Dollar. The greenback extended its gains against most of the major currencies but the rally is slowing as investors cover their shorts in EUR/USD, AUD/USD and other major currencies. Softer than expected U.S consumer confidence helped to fuel their recoveries but the prospect of 2 relatively quiet data weeks and the potential for a disruptive trade meeting between the U.S. and China also encouraged investors to reduce their short positions. The most important event risk next week will be the U.S. and China’s trade talks on August 21 and 22. If the talks go well, risk appetite will improve allowing deeply oversold currencies like the Australian dollar to recover. However if the U.S. and China continue to bump heads, we could see renewed losses for euro, sterling and Aussie along with gains for the U.S Dollar. U.S fundamentals are still sound and next week’s FOMC minutes will remind us that the Fed is on course to raise rates in September. So at most we expect the pullback in USD/JPY to take the pair to 109.90 or 110. After hitting a low of 1.13 on Wednesday, EUR/USD ended the week near 1.14. Like the U.S., slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the currency. Eurozone PMIs are due for release in the week ahead and of all the economic reports on the calendar, these are the most important because previously, we’ve seen very little sign of trade tensions impacting the Eurozone economy but if the August numbers show a slowdown, euro will resume its slide. If the data shows that manufacturing and service sector activity continued to expand at a faster pace, EUR/USD could extend its gains to 1.15. Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery. With short positions at their highest level since May 2017, GBP/USD was at the greatest risk of a short covering rally. Consumer spending rose 3 times more than expected in July, year over year CPI growth accelerated to 2.5%, well above the central bank’s 2% target and the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 43 years. There was a slowdown in wage growth and zero price growth on a month to month basis, but the improvements should have overshadowed the deterioration. Yet it did not, which shows how strong the selling pressure really is. The problem is that the risk of a no-deal Brexit is growing but taking a look at the GBP/USD daily chart – higher highs and higher lows suggest that a stronger recovery is brewing. If it happens, it would be driven by Brexit headlines or a deeper pullback in the U.S Dollar because there are no major UK economic reports for the rest of the month. All three of the commodity currencies traded higher today with the Canadian leading the gains.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low     3.0%
07:00 Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) Low     1.1%
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (AUG 17) Low      
09:00 Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN) Low     1.8%
15:00 U.S Fed’s Bostic Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Tennessee Low      
22:45 New Zealand Net Migration s.a. (JUL) Low     4840
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 19) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency traded better against the U.S. Dollar on Friday. The single currency continues to be supported by the announcement of renewed trade talks between the United States and China later this month. Considering the limited impact on European banks, the recent sell-off in the Euro appears to have been overdone. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1365 and a high of 1.1443 before closing the day around 1.1441 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair was under pressure last week on trade tensions and on revelations the Bank of Japan is under pressure to move away from its accommodative policy. Early in the week, the Yen was supported by solid domestic data. Late in the week, geopolitical tensions sparked a flight-to-safety rally into the Japanese Yen. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.29 and a high of 111.03 before closing the day around 110.54 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound struggled during the last week, as we reached down to the next support level. People are starting to price in the idea of a “no deal Brexit”, so things are becoming much more negative. At this point, the trade of the century might be buying the British pound at low levels, but clearly you need a longer-term signal to start doing that. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2695 and a high of 1.2752 before closing the day at 1.2752 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart on Friday after data showed a surge in domestic inflation triggered increased bets on another Bank of Canada interest rate hike as soon as September. Canada’s annual inflation rate surged to 3.0 per cent in July, its highest in nearly seven years, versus 2.5 per cent the previous month. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3049 and a high of 1.3167 before closing the day at 1.3062 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar broke sharply last week amid expectations that domestic interest rates would remain at historical lows longer than expected and rising geopolitical turmoil that dampened demand for higher-yielding currencies. The Australian Dollar weakened as the central bank showed no intention of raising rates over the near future. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7250 and a high of 0.7317 before closing the day at 0.7315 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.26%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.46%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.19%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 17, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1375 1.14435 1.1365 1.14414 0.0066
USD/JPY 110.867 111.033 110.296 110.54 -0.3420
GBP/USD 1.27109 1.2752 1.26959 1.2752 0.0039
USD/CHF 0.99665 0.9976 0.9931 0.99558 -0.0010
USD/CAD 1.31553 1.31672 1.30497 1.30621 -0.0092
EUR/JPY 126.127 126.584 125.555 126.461 0.3220
GBP/JPY 140.985 141.143 140.202 140.957 -0.0160
CHF/JPY 111.206 111.29 110.787 111.054 -0.1620
AUD/JPY 80.468 80.938 80.071 80.856 0.3710
EUR/GBP 0.89465 0.89759 0.8934 0.89726 0.0026
EUR/CHF 1.13385 1.13921 1.13277 1.13899 0.0051
GBP/CHF 1.26656 1.26992 1.26485 1.26954 0.0023

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1311 1.1338 1.1390 1.1417 1.1468 1.1495 1.1547
USD/JPY 109.48 109.89 110.21 110.62 110.95 111.36 111.69
GBP/USD 1.2659 1.2677 1.2715 1.2733 1.2771 1.2789 1.2827
USD/CHF 0.9888 0.9909 0.9933 0.9954 0.9978 0.9999 1.0023
USD/CAD 1.2901 1.2976 1.3019 1.3093 1.3136 1.3211 1.3254
EUR/JPY 124.79 125.17 125.82 126.20 126.85 127.23 127.87
GBP/JPY 139.45 139.83 140.39 140.77 141.33 141.71 142.27
CHF/JPY 110.29 110.54 110.80 111.04 111.30 111.55 111.80
AUD/JPY 79.44 79.75 80.31 80.62 81.17 81.49 82.04
EUR/GBP 0.8904 0.8919 0.8946 0.8961 0.8988 0.9003 0.9030
EUR/CHF 1.1283 1.1306 1.1348 1.1370 1.1412 1.1434 1.1477
GBP/CHF 1.2612 1.2630 1.2663 1.2681 1.2714 1.2732 1.2764

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-20

     
Market Summary
週五(8月17日)美元指數繼續保持低迷態勢。因受到日內公佈的美加數據悲喜雙重天,加拿大7月CPI飆升至2011年以來最高水平,使得加元受到提振急漲近百點,此數據公佈後使得美元指數下挫至96.28。加上隨後出爐的美國密歇根大學指數不及預期與前值,為95.3,並創下去年9月以來最低水準,導緻美元指數進一步承壓,而美國7月諮商會領先指標月率為0.6%,高於前值0.5%和預期0.4%。美元指數最終收於96.09。

現貨黃金週五(8月17日)上漲,亞市早盤開於1173.80美元/金衡盎司後小幅震盪下行,錄得日內低點1171.75美元/金衡盎司後反彈。因受到黃金正在亞洲吸引“強勁”的實物買盤,幫助金價在1172.00美元/金衡盎司附近的支撐位,吸引了支撐位的買單,在盤整之後大幅逆轉並上破1180.00美元/金衡盎司。最終收在1184.00美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五收漲0.45美元,或0.69%,報65.93美元/桶。因市場風險情緒改善為原油等風險資產帶來支撐,同時美元承壓重挫更是加大了油價的反彈動能。

美國股市在週五收高,因受到美國解決與中國和墨西哥之間的貿易糾紛並且取得進展。道瓊工業指數上漲110.59點,或0.43%,至25,669.32點;標準普爾500指數上漲9.44點,或0.33%,至2,850.13點;納斯達克指數上漲9.81點,或0.13%,至7,816.33點。

個股方面,在發布疲弱的財測後,英偉達 NVDA.O 跌4.9%,應用材料 AMAT.O 下跌7.7%,拖累費城半導體指數 .SOX 下滑0.7%。而Nordstrom Inc JWN.N 則暴漲13.2%,此前該公司公佈同店銷售好於預期並上調盈利預估,逆百貨店財測疲弱的趨勢。

日本股市週五收高,因中美貿易戰露出轉機,使得日經225指數走揚,但漲幅有限,主要受美國半導體設備廠應材展望不佳、相關晶片設備廠走跌影響,指數終場僅收漲0.35%,或78.34點,收22,270.38點。

個股方面,景氣循環股如造船、金屬加工與金融股表現優於大盤,日本海運業者商船三井收高2.5%、住友金屬礦山與三菱日聯金融集團均收漲1.9%。而芯片設備製造類股遭遇賣壓,東京電子下跌1.4%,思可林下跌2.9%。此前全球最大的晶片製造設備供應商–美國應用材料對該公司當前季度的獲利及營收預測均遜於分析師預期。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜回落收跌,最低觸及110.302一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格支撐位於110.500一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力目標考驗111關口,突破才有望進一步指向111.700一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續反彈,最高探至1.14434一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.14000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力看向1.16500一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,交投於1.27300一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標依舊超賣。後市看來,價格考驗1.27000一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.28200一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜反彈收漲,最高探至1184一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,金價初步阻力考驗1197一線。下行方面,金價支撐目標下看1167一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,最高觸及66.37一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於64.40一線。上行方面,油價阻力位於68.60一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收高,一度刷新新高至25728一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25800一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25440一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收平,一度探低至22070一線後反彈。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22000關口,上方阻力位看向22400一線。

 

 

17 八月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

       

 FOREX Newsletter

 August 17, 2018
 

 

    Pulse of the Market

·      Turkey secured a lifeline from Qatar and their steps to curb Lira selling are working

·      U.S data fell short of expectations but the impact was limited

·      Data had a very little impact on the Euro with the Eurozone’s trade balance declining slightly

·      Sterling seems very weak and had a very tough time rallying despite very good data

 

All of the major currencies traded higher as improved risk appetite drove traders back into high beta currencies. U.S Chief Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow confirmed that the trade talks with China will resume next week while U.S trade negotiator Lighthizer said he’s hopeful that there will be a breakthrough on NAFTA in the next few days. U.S data fell short of expectations but the impact was limited by the fact that these second-tier reports won’t affect Fed policy. President Trump also seems to have made a U-turn on Dollar policy. Demand for U.S Dollars is still very strong, which explains why Japanese Yen crosses performed particularly well yesterday. The Euro is still vulnerable to additional losses, having rejected a move above 1.14. Turkey is not out of the woods especially after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin threw out threats of more sanctions if the American pastor is not released. But investors are worried about Italy, who saw its markets go on a rollercoaster ride on the back of Turkey’s troubles. The Eurozone’s current account balance and revisions to July CPI data are due today and unless there is a big change, the impact should be limited as well. Sterling, on the other hand, is very weak. Unlike some other major currencies, it had a very tough time rallying despite very good data. Retail sales rose 0.7% in the month of July, 3 times more than anticipated. Excluding auto fuel, consumer spending growth was even stronger. This report should have sent GBP/USD sharply higher and while it did trigger a 30 pip knee-jerk rally, the pair nose-dived just as quickly. The selling pressure in the pound is very strong and there seem to be no signs of let up even though short positions are at their highest level since May 2017. As a result, the risk of a move down to 1.26 is significant. Along the same lines, EUR/GBP could revisit 90 cents. The Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their gains today while the Canadian dollar remained under pressure. After selling off aggressively this month, we believe AUD/USD has found a bottom. It is too early to say whether this will be a short or long-term bottom but either way, we see further gains ahead for the pair. Australia reported mixed labor market data. Job losses were reported but the market shrugged off the headline miss in favor of fulltime job growth and the best unemployment rate in 6 years. The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, extended its losses ahead of today’s CPI report. While Canadian data has been pretty good, today’s report could surprise to the downside because price pressures eased in the manufacturing sector according to IVEY PMI.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUL) Medium   1.1% 1.1%
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Medium   2.1% 2.0%
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High   2.5% 2.5%
14:00 U.S Leading Index (JUL) Medium   0.4% 0.5%
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (AUG) High   98 97.9
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Current Conditions (AUG) Low     114.4
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Expectations (AUG) Low     87.3
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (AUG 17) Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency gained slightly in yesterday’s session. On the release front, the German Wholesale Price Index dropped to 0.0%, short of the estimate of 0.5%. The Eurozone trade surplus narrowed to EUR 16.7 billion, missing the estimate of EUR 17.0 billion. The euro has endured a rough August, losing 2.7 percent in that time. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1334 and a high of 1.1407 before closing the day around 1.1375 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen had an uneventful week and that trend continued yesterday. On the release front, Japan’s trade surplus with the US dropped 22.1% in July. It was a busy day for U.S indicators. Building Permits improved to 1.31 million, matching the estimate. Housing starts remained at 1.17 million, short of the estimate of 1.27 million. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.44 and a high of 111.10 before closing the day around 110.88 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound advanced against rivals yesterday as traders responded to official data showing spending on the high street rising faster than was expected during July, drawing a line under the surprise slump seen back in June. UK retail sales rose by 0.4% during July, up from the -0.5% contraction seen back in June  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2683 and a high of 1.2752 before closing the day at 1.2713 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was nearly unchanged against its U.S counterpart yesterday after a planned oil pipeline from Alberta to Nebraska met with a setback, offsetting domestic data that showed a rise in factory sales. Canadian factory sales grew by 1.1 per cent in June from May, thanks largely to a rebound in petroleum and coal products. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3111 and a high of 1.3172 before closing the day at 1.3154 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar correlation with the tumbling offshore Yuan reached the strongest on record in August as investors entwine the two nations’ fortunes. It’s a clear sign of Australia’s vulnerability to a slowdown in China that’s being exacerbated by U.S tariffs. Australia’s currency is under fire as the economy caps a 27th recession-free year amid accelerating growth. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7213 and a high of 0.7284 before closing the day at 0.7259 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.24%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.37%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.11%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.43%.

 

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for August 16, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13446 1.14077 1.13344 1.13755 0.0029
USD/JPY 110.693 111.104 110.44 110.882 0.1270
GBP/USD 1.26966 1.27522 1.26836 1.27132 0.0015
USD/CHF 0.99374 0.99728 0.99914 0.99662 0.0029
USD/CAD 1.31397 1.31722 1.31116 1.31544 0.0011
EUR/JPY 125.602 126.467 125.26 126.139 0.4750
GBP/JPY 140.563 141.302 140.184 140.973 0.3440
CHF/JPY 111.361 111.783 111.166 111.216 -0.2650
AUD/JPY 80.11 80.797 79.806 80.485 0.2960
EUR/GBP 0.89337 0.89581 0.8932 0.89464 0.0010
EUR/CHF 1.1274 1.13454 1.12615 1.13384 0.0064
GBP/CHF 1.26182 1.26755 1.26024 1.26719 0.0054

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1264 1.1299 1.1337 1.1373 1.1411 1.1446 1.1484
USD/JPY 109.85 110.14 110.51 110.81 111.18 111.47 111.84
GBP/USD 1.2612 1.2648 1.2680 1.2716 1.2749 1.2785 1.2818
USD/CHF 0.9999 0.9995 0.9981 0.9977 0.9962 0.9958 0.9944
USD/CAD 1.3059 1.3085 1.3120 1.3146 1.3181 1.3207 1.3241
EUR/JPY 124.24 124.75 125.44 125.96 126.65 127.16 127.86
GBP/JPY 139.22 139.70 140.34 140.82 141.46 141.94 142.57
CHF/JPY 110.38 110.77 110.99 111.39 111.61 112.01 112.23
AUD/JPY 78.94 79.37 79.93 80.36 80.92 81.35 81.91
EUR/GBP 0.8907 0.8919 0.8933 0.8946 0.8959 0.8972 0.8985
EUR/CHF 1.1201 1.1231 1.1285 1.1315 1.1369 1.1399 1.1453
GBP/CHF 1.2551 1.2577 1.2624 1.2650 1.2697 1.2723 1.2771

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-17

     
Market Summary
週四(8月16日)美元指數下跌,亞市盤中美元指數位於96.5震盪,美市開盤,日內公佈的美國上周初請失業救濟金人數為21萬2千人,低於前值21萬3千人,也低於市場預期21萬5千人,另一個重要數據美國8月費城聯儲製造業指數為11.9,遠低於前值25.7和市場預期22.0,數據顯示雖然美國失業率降低,但製造業前景更令投資者擔心,數據公佈完後美元指數下跌,最低來到96.31,美市盤中美國財政部長努欽警告,華盛頓準備對土耳其實施更多制裁,土耳其里拉暴跌,資金開始逃竄並流入美元,美元指數上漲,最高來到96.7,隨後美元指數轉盤整,最終收在96.59。

現貨黃金週四(8月16日)走勢震盪,亞市早盤黃金突然暴跌,從開盤1174.60美元/金衡盎司,一路下跌至盤中最低1160.05美元/金衡盎司,但未能突破1160.00美元/金衡盎司,黃金隨後開始反彈,日內最高觸及1181.80美元/金衡盎司,美元於美市盤中走高後,黃金受承壓最終收在1173.80美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週四收漲0.6美元,或0.92%,報65.48美元/桶。應美方邀請,中國商務部副部長兼國際貿易談判副代表王受文擬於8月下旬率團訪美,與美國財政部副部長瑪律帕斯率領的美方代表團就雙方各自關注的中美經貿問題進行磋商,這有效改善了市場的風險情緒,幫助原油等風險類資產獲得支撐,同時美元走弱也為油價反彈創造條件。

美國股市在週四上漲,因企業發佈樂觀業績,貿易不安情緒減弱提振投資者信心。道瓊工業指數上漲396.32點,或1.58%,至25,558.73點;標準普爾500指數上漲22.32點,或0.79%,至2,840.69點;納斯達克指數上漲32.41點,或0.42%,至7,806.52點。

個股方面,思科 CSCO.O 上揚3.0%,之前該公司公佈的季度營收和獲利均超過華爾街的目標。網路安全公司賽門鐵克 SYMC.O 結束五連跌,急升4.6%,之前對沖基金Starboard Value LP購買了該公司5.8%的股份。J.C. Penney Co Inc JCP.N 觸及紀錄收盤低位元,暴跌27.0%,之前該公司公佈令人失望的營收,並預計全年虧損超預期。

日本股市週四下跌,因中國商務部副部長兼國際貿易談判副代表王受文應美方邀請、擬於8月下旬率團訪美,減緩美中貿易摩擦加劇疑慮,提振日經指數跌幅狂縮且數度翻紅,終場小跌0.05%或12.18點,收22,192.04點。

個股方面,Panasonic重挫2.12%,特斯拉冷落太陽能,Panasonic美國工廠生產傳陷入停滯,將中止和特斯拉之間的獨家供應契約。日本雅虎大跌2.48%,軟銀重挫1.82%,蘋果疑似對日本雅虎的遊戲下載事業施加壓力、妨礙交易,日本當局展開調查,而傳出雅虎最大股東軟銀居中調解、導致日本當局的調查不順。資生堂慘跌5.35%,Kose暴跌8.11%,Pola Orbis Holdings重挫2.27%,美容健康機器廠商YA-MAN狂瀉10.03%。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收漲,一度突破111關口后收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於110.500一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標考驗111關口,突破則進一步指向111.700一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅反彈,一度觸及1.14一線后收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上脫離超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐依舊考驗1.13000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力看向1.14700一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜低位震蕩,交投于1.27100一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標超賣。後市看來,價格考驗1.26300一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.28200一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜震蕩收平,最低觸及1160一線后反彈。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,金價初步阻力考驗1190一線。下行方面,金價支撐目標依舊下看1130一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,一度從日低64.41一線反彈。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱溫和,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於64.00關口。上行方面,油價阻力位於67.20一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅收漲,飆升至25605一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25700一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25400一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜反彈收漲,一度從日低21860一線反彈。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22000關口,上方阻力位看向22500一線。

 

 

16 八月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

   

FOREX Newsletter

August 16, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S retail sales rose 0.5% last month, but June’s retail sales were revised downward

·      The Empire State manufacturing index rose 5.30 points in August to a reading of 25.60

·      Concerns over Turkey saw demand for the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc increase

·      The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices fell

 

The U.S Dollar steadied against its rivals at 13-month highs yesterday, but gains were limited by rising demand for safe-haven yen on fears turmoil in Turkey could spill over into other markets. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.05% to 96.60. The lira rose sharply against the dollar for the second-straight day as Turkey doubled tariffs on some U.S imports, including alcohol, cars and tobacco in retaliation for U.S moves. The rise in the lira did little to ease investor concerns as analysts warned that while Turkey may take measures to support the lira, the country’s economy would likely plunge into a recession. A recession is on the horizon in Turkey, but the depth of the recession depends on the measures taken. Lower growth, higher interest rates and on balance a weaker currency would still make it difficult for certain Turkish companies to fulfill their external debt obligations, but a national debt crisis would be avoided. Concerns over Turkey saw demand for the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc increase, keeping gains in the greenback in check. A duo of economic reports on retail sales and regional manufacturing pushed the dollar to an intraday high, but the greenback struggled to hold gains. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales rose 0.5% last month, but June’s retail sales was revised downward. The retail sales control group — which has a larger impact on U.S GDP — rose 0.5%, beating expectations for a 0.4% rise. The Empire State manufacturing index rose 5.30 points in August to a reading of 25.60, the New York Federal Reserve said Wednesday. That was its highest reading in 10 months. Elsewhere, bargain hunters scooped up the euro as it plunged to one-year low intraday against the dollar. The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices fell and a 13-month high for the greenback pressured emerging markets and global stocks. Resale’s of Canadian homes rose 1.9 percent in July from June, notching the third straight monthly rise but remaining below the highs seen in recent years, the Canadian Real Estate Association said.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (AUG) Medium     3.9%
01:30 Australia Employment Change (JUL) High   15.0k 50.9k
01:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (JUL) High   5.4% 5.4%
08:30 U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUL) Medium   2.7% 3.0%
09:00 Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (JUN) Low   16.5b 16.9b
12:30 Canada ADP Publishes July Payrolls Report Low      
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low   1.0% 1.4%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 11) Medium   215k  
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (AUG 4) Medium   1741k  
12:30 U.S Housing Starts (MoM) (JUL) Medium   7.4% -12.3%
12:30 U.S Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) Medium   1.4% -2.2%
12:30 U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (AUG) Medium   22 25.7
23:30 RBA Governor Semiannual Testimony High      

Euro

The single currency has fallen more than 5 percent in 2018, and analysts see the downward trend continuing even if the market turmoil in Turkey eases. As euro-area growth slows and rate differentials lead investors to unwind bullish euro positions from earlier in the year. The euro touched a 13-month low yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1299 and a high of 1.1353 before closing the day around 1.1347 in the New York session.

 

Yen

 

 

The Japanese Yen ended the session higher against the U.S Dollar. The currency is undervalued and especially sensitive to shifts in its central bank’s monetary policy – or hints of them – which suggests it may rise in the months ahead. The currency has been a popular go-to for investors fleeing the Turkish currency and emerging market crises. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.41 and a high of 111.41 before closing the day around 110.75 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell below $1.27 against the US dollar for the first time since June last year. Sterling – already weakened amid political turmoil over the government’s Brexit blueprint. The move was also attributed to the strength of the dollar. The drop against the dollar also comes on the back of weaker-than-forecast wage growth figures. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2660 and a high of 1.2733 before closing the day at 1.2697 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart as oil prices fell and a 13-month high for the greenback pressured emerging markets and global stocks. The greenback rose as data showed U.S. retail sales grew more than forecast in July. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was pressured by data showing rising U.S. crude inventories. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3048 and a high of 1.3172 before closing the day at 1.3143 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell yesterday after official data confirmed that wage and inflation pressures are still missing in action down under, while traders continue to shun the antipodean currency amid a testing geopolitical and global economic environment. Wage growth is a hot-button issue for the Australian Dollar. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7200 and a high of 0.7245 before closing the day at 0.7235 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.35%.

  

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 21 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.57%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.37%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.21%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 18 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 15, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13427 1.13535 1.12996 1.1347 0.0001
USD/JPY 111.123 111.412 110.413 110.755 -0.4030
GBP/USD 1.27186 1.27336 1.266 1.26977 -0.0024
USD/CHF 0.99406 0.99807 0.99242 0.99367 -0.0006
USD/CAD 1.30605 1.31723 1.30482 1.31431 0.0083
EUR/JPY 126.061 126.348 124.88 125.664 -0.4450
GBP/JPY 141.346 141.745 139.869 140.629 -0.8070
CHF/JPY 111.763 111.917 110.939 111.481 -0.3340
AUD/JPY 80.424 80.541 79.671 80.189 -0.2960
EUR/GBP 0.89165 0.89373 0.88991 0.89368 0.0019
EUR/CHF 1.12762 1.13034 1.12412 1.12746 -0.0005
GBP/CHF 1.26441 1.26959 1.25896 1.26181 -0.0035

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1259 1.1279 1.1313 1.1333 1.1367 1.1387 1.1421
USD/JPY 109.31 109.86 110.31 110.86 111.31 111.86 112.31
GBP/USD 1.2587 1.2624 1.2661 1.2697 1.2734 1.2771 1.2808
USD/CHF 0.9857 0.9891 0.9914 0.9947 0.9970 1.0004 1.0027
USD/CAD 1.2946 1.2997 1.3070 1.3121 1.3194 1.3245 1.3318
EUR/JPY 123.45 124.16 124.91 125.63 126.38 127.10 127.85
GBP/JPY 137.87 138.87 139.75 140.75 141.63 142.62 143.50
CHF/JPY 110.00 110.47 110.97 111.45 111.95 112.42 112.93
AUD/JPY 78.86 79.26 79.73 80.13 80.60 81.00 81.47
EUR/GBP 0.8873 0.8886 0.8912 0.8924 0.8950 0.8963 0.8988
EUR/CHF 1.1181 1.1211 1.1243 1.1273 1.1305 1.1335 1.1367
GBP/CHF 1.2467 1.2528 1.2573 1.2635 1.2679 1.2741 1.2786

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-16

     
Market Summary
週三(8月15日)美元指數持續上漲,最高觸及至96.89,日內公佈的美國7月零售銷售為0.5%,與前值相同,但低於預期0.1%,主要因服裝和餐飲銷售強勁,消費支出穩健增長的態勢延續到了第三季度。美市盤中卡達已經承諾對土耳其投資150億美元之後,土耳其對美國施加關稅,美土關係日益惡化,美元指數受到承壓,許多投資者紛紛獲利了結,美元指數最終收在96.71。

現貨黃金週三(8月15日)持續暴跌,受到美元指數走高的影響,美市盤中黃金最低下探至1172.85美元/金衡盎司,金價已跌破1180美元/金衡盎司,許多投資者繼續放空黃金,金價一路下跌,隨後黃金轉盤整,最終收在1174.55美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收跌1.79美元,或2.68%,報64.88美元/桶。全球經濟形勢的悲觀前景影響原油需求表現,而美國原油庫存報告又整體利空,結合美元維持強勢,日內油價承壓重挫。美國能源資訊署(EIA)週三(8月15日)公佈報告顯示,截至8月10日當周,美國原油庫存增加680.5萬桶,創2017年3月10日當周(75周)以來最大單周增幅,前值則是減少135.1萬桶。

美國股市在週三下跌,因為在一系列企業發佈令人失望的業績和全球關稅憂慮加重之際,投資者轉向避險交易。道瓊工業指數下跌137.51點,或0.54%,至25,162.41點;標準普爾500指數下跌21.59點,或0.76%,至2,818.37點;納斯達克指數下跌96.78點,或1.23%,至7,774.12點。

個股方面,特斯拉 TSLA.O 下跌2.6%,因據福克斯商業新聞報導,美國證券交易委員會(SEC)就特斯拉執行長馬斯克將公司私有化計畫和資金已落實的聲明發出傳票。加拿大大麻生產商Canopy Growth CGC.N 飆升30.4%,之前柯洛娜啤酒生產商Constellation Brands STZ.N 宣佈將增持該公司股份。墨西哥卷餅連鎖店Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc CMG.N 急升6.6%,之前摩根士丹利將該公司評級從表現與同業一致上調至表現強於同業。

日本股市週三下跌,因上證等亞股昨日走跌、人民幣續貶,加上土耳其報復美國、調高部分美國產品關稅,衝擊投資人信心,也拖累日經指數翻黑、且跌幅一度擴大至近250點,終場下挫0.68%或151.86點,收22,204.22點。

個股方面,日本製藥廠Astellas跌0.37%,為刪減成本,日本各家製藥廠掀起醫藥行銷師(MR)裁員潮,3年恐逾3,000人失業。軟銀大跌2.63%,軟銀旗下美國電信商Sprint將攜手LG,於2019年前半在美開賣5G智慧手機。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜震蕩收跌,最高觸及111.418一線后跳水。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標拐頭向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於110.500一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標考驗111關口,突破則進一步指向111.700一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜震蕩收平,最低觸及1.12997一線后收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標超賣。後市看來,價格支撐依舊考驗1.13000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力看向1.14500一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投于1.27一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標超賣。後市看來,價格考驗1.26300一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.28400一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜再創新低,最低探至1172.85一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,金價初步阻力考驗1190一線。下行方面,金價支撐目標進一步下看1130一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜延續收跌,最低探至64.50一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸逼近超賣區。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於64.00關口。上行方面,油價阻力位於67.50一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,一度觸及日低24953一線后收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25380一線。下行方面,價格支撐進一步看向25000關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜回落收跌,全數回吐前一日升幅。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標拐頭向下。後市來看,價格支撐位考驗21800一線,上方阻力位看向22400一線。

 

 

15 八月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

     

FOREX Newsletter

August 15, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      After a one day reprieve, investors returned to buying U.S Dollars yesterday

·      Investors are worried that Europe is ground zero for the next emerging market crisis

·      Sterling gave up earlier gains to end the day near its 1.2705 low

·      The performance of the commodity currencies was less consistent in yesterday’s session

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (AUG) Medium     3.9%
01:30 China New Home Prices (MoM) (JUL) Medium     1.1%
08:30 U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High   2.5% 2.4%
08:30 U.K Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low   3.4% 3.4%
08:30 U.K House Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Medium   2.6% 3.0%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 10) Medium      
12:30 U.S Empire Manufacturing (AUG) Low   20 22.6
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (JUL) High   0.1% 0.5%
13:00 Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) Medium     4.1%
13:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL) Medium   0.3% 0.6%
13:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUL) Medium   0.3% 0.8%
14:00 U.S NAHB Housing Market Index (AUG) Medium   67 68
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 10) Medium      
20:00 U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUN) Medium     $45.6b
23:50 Japan Trade Balance (JUL) Medium   -¥41.2b ¥721.4b

 

Euro

The single currency fell yesterday despite Eurozone growth was better than expected in the second quarter, flash estimates from the European statistics office Eurostat showed, in a sign that the negative effect of global trade tensions might be seen only later in the year. Industrial output in the in 19-country currency bloc fell sharply in June. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1328 and a high of 1.1428 before closing the day around 1.1345 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair has been paring gains against the US Dollar since the start of this trading week with USD/JPY testing initial resistance yesterday in early US trade. Keep in mind we get the release of US Advanced Retail Sales tomorrow with University of Michigan confidence surveys on tap this Friday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.56 and a high of 111.29 before closing the day around 111.15 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell in a response to UK labor market data which showed a sharp and unexpected dip in the country’s unemployment rate. UK’s unemployment rate was recorded at 4.0% by the Office for National Statistics; markets were expecting it to remain stuck at 4.2%. This represents the lowest unemployment rate since 1975. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2702 and a high of 1.2825 before closing the day at 1.2722 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as the currency rebounded from a near three-week low the day before, supported by higher global stock prices and the ebbing threat from a collapse of the Turkish lira. Investors have worried that a crisis in Turkey could spread to other emerging market countries. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3054 and a high of 1.3134 before closing the day at 1.3060 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained earlier in the session yesterday following a surprise increase in Australian business confidence. The NAB data release wasn’t entirely positive, however, and with risk aversion, still rife the Australian Dollar’s gains were reversed sharply and the Australian Dollar ended the day lower. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7222 and a high of 0.7281 before closing the day at 0.7234 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.19%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 23 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.04%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 32 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.04%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.23%.

  

 Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 19 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.26%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 14, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1409 1.1428 1.13287 1.13458 -0.0066
USD/JPY 110.665 111.296 110.569 111.158 0.4330
GBP/USD 1.27649 1.28256 1.27027 1.27221 -0.0048
USD/CHF 0.99295 0.99489 0.98992 0.99432 0.0011
USD/CAD 1.31289 1.31342 1.30544 1.30601 -0.0076
EUR/JPY 126.272 126.968 125.785 126.109 -0.2360
GBP/JPY 141.284 142.449 140.979 141.436 0.0510
CHF/JPY 111.403 112.059 111.287 111.815 0.3300
AUD/JPY 80.465 80.783 80.182 80.485 -0.0320
EUR/GBP 0.89364 0.89438 0.88943 0.89179 -0.0021
EUR/CHF 1.1329 1.13525 1.12637 1.12797 -0.0055
GBP/CHF 1.26839 1.27261 1.26253 1.26534 -0.0034

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1208 1.1268 1.1307 1.1368 1.1406 1.1467 1.1506
USD/JPY 109.99 110.28 110.72 111.01 111.45 111.73 112.17
GBP/USD 1.2552 1.2627 1.2675 1.2750 1.2798 1.2873 1.2920
USD/CHF 0.9862 0.9881 0.9912 0.9930 0.9962 0.9980 1.0011
USD/CAD 1.2952 1.3003 1.3032 1.3083 1.3111 1.3163 1.3191
EUR/JPY 124.42 125.10 125.61 126.29 126.79 127.47 127.97
GBP/JPY 139.32 140.15 140.79 141.62 142.26 143.09 143.73
CHF/JPY 110.61 110.95 111.38 111.72 112.15 112.49 112.93
AUD/JPY 79.58 79.88 80.18 80.48 80.78 81.08 81.39
EUR/GBP 0.8844 0.8869 0.8894 0.8919 0.8943 0.8968 0.8993
EUR/CHF 1.1156 1.1210 1.1245 1.1299 1.1334 1.1387 1.1422
GBP/CHF 1.2510 1.2567 1.2610 1.2668 1.2711 1.2769 1.2812

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-15

     
Market Summary
週二(8月14日)日內美國沒有重要的經濟數據公佈,亞洲時段美元指數在96.4附近震盪,歐美時段,受到土耳其的影響,資金紛紛開始逃亡,美元指數多頭從96.25開始上漲,一路漲到日內最高96.79,同時也突破2018年以來新高,隨後美元指數轉盤整,最終收在96.67。

現貨黃金週二亞市早盤開於1193.40美元/金衡盎司後,小幅探底回升,歐美盤中最高上探至1198.45美元/金衡盎司,但金價仍運行在1200.00美元/金衡盎司下方,美市盤中金價開始拉回,最低下探至1191.75美元/金衡盎司,隨後黃金轉盤整,最終收在1193.75美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收跌0.69美元,或1.02%,報66.67美元/桶。雖然沙特7月產量意外下降,但美元指數強勢走高令原油等以美元計價的大宗商品價格承壓,同時美國石油鑽井數再度攀升也令多頭擔憂情緒加重。

美國股市在週二上漲,因一系列公司獲利穩健提振投資者的樂觀情緒,土耳其里拉反彈緩解危機進一歩擴散的擔憂,道瓊工業指數上漲112.22點,或0.45%,至25,299.92點;標準普爾500指數上漲18.03點,或0.64%,至2,839.96點;納斯達克指數上漲51.19點,或0.65%,至7,870.89點。

個股方面,特斯拉 TSLA.O 下跌2.5%,此前公司稱,組成了一個特別委員會,評估公司私有化提議,但尚未收到首席執行長馬斯克的正式提議。百勝中國 YUMC.N 股價攀升4%,因有消息稱,中國投資公司和DCP Capital可能收購該公司。美國雜貨零售商克羅格 KR.N 股價收高2.4%,宣佈將通過阿裡巴巴 BABA.N 的天貓平臺在中國銷售其自有品牌Simple Truth產品。

日本股市週二上漲,因土耳其里拉止貶強彈,市場避險情緒暫歇,日元轉貶,激勵日經225指數14日以紅盤22,053點開出後,指數漲幅就逐步擴大、開高走高,終場大漲2.28%或498.65點,收在22,356.08點。

個股方面,夏普小跌0.07%,盤中一度勁揚1.48%,電視用液晶面板價格1年9個月來首度揚升。日本OLED電視龍頭Sony勁揚1.81%,日本OLED電視需求夯,H1銷售量較去年同期飆增7倍。液晶製造/檢查設備商V-Technology狂飆9.26%。中國需求旺,V-Tech上季純益飆增3倍、創同期歷史新高。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收漲,重回111關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於110.900一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標進一步考驗111.700一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜大幅收跌,最低探至1.13288一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標超賣。後市看來,價格支撐依舊考驗1.13000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力看向1.14500一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜沖高回落,一度反彈至1.28264一線后跳水。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,雙線向下延伸,RSI指標超賣。後市看來,價格考驗1.27關口支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.28400一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜震蕩收平,窄幅交投于1193一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,金價關鍵阻力考驗1200關口。下行方面,金價初步支撐看向1130一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜回落收跌,一度探高至68.35一線后跳水。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於66.00一線。上行方面,油價阻力位於68.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收漲,交投于25200一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標向上。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25400一線。下行方面,價格支撐進一步看向25000關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至22370一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱溫和,RSI指標向上。後市來看,價格支撐位考驗22100一線,上方阻力位看向22500一線。

 

 

 市場報告                     2018-08-14

     
Market Summary
週一(8月13日)日內美國沒有重要的經濟數據公佈,市場交易清淡,受到週五美元指數大漲的影響,週一亞市盤內美元指數在96.50震盪,美市開盤後,投資者開始結清出場,美元指數從96.49滑落,最低來到96.16,隨著買盤又再次湧入,最終美元指數收在96.32。

現貨黃金週一亞市早盤開於1212.20美元/金衡盎司後,金價直線墜落,並跌破1200.00美元/金衡盎司大關,歐美時段歐市金價延續跌勢,金價不斷走低,錄得日內低點1191.40美元/金衡盎司後轉盤整,最終收在1193.50美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收跌0.25美元,或0.37%,報67.36美元/桶。OPEC下調明年原油需求增速預期,這令油價前景蒙上陰影。7月OPEC原油產量增加4.1萬桶/日至3230萬桶/日。不過沙特再次讓增產努力蒙上疑雲。沙特上個月減少鑽探活動,而美國、中國和印度也正在施壓要求降低燃料價格。

美國股市在週一走低,因土耳其里拉崩跌引發的全球憂慮蔓延至華爾街。道瓊工業指數下跌125.44點,或0.5%,至25,187.7點;標準普爾500指數下跌11.35點,或0.40%,至2,821.93點;納斯達克指數下跌19.40點,或0.25%,至7,819.71點。

個股方面,流媒體服務公司網飛 NFLX.O 公佈首席財務長David Wells離職,股價挫跌1.3%。摩托車製造商哈雷大衛森 HOG.N 下滑4.3%,此前美國總統特朗普發推文支持抵制該公司的行動。特斯拉公司 TSLA.O 小漲0.3%,公司首席執行官馬斯克表示,正在與沙烏地阿拉伯的主權財富基金和其私有化計畫的其它支持者洽商,但他表示,融資尚未敲定。

日本股市週一下跌,受到土耳其里拉暴貶衝擊擴大影響,印度盧比等新興國家貨幣也跟隨里拉腳步創低,作為避險資產的日元則走高,拖累日經225指數13日重挫,終場大跌1.98%或440.65點,收21,857.43點。

個股方面,夏普大跌3.28%,夏普傳將推出IoT用新型太陽能電池,可能將委外生產。PKSHA慘摔5.04%,AI夯,PKSHA上季營收暴增5成,不過財測預估維持不變。PCB廠名幸逆勢狂飆17.47%。PCB訂單夯,稼動率維持高水準,Meiko上季純益飆增3倍。大塚家具逆勢漲0.51%,大塚家具拚重建,傳已和台灣能率集團洽談合作。日本造船廠大跌,三井E&S重挫2.45%。川崎重工業重挫2.68%,搶輸韓陸廠,日廠7月造船訂單量驟減4成。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜震蕩收漲,一度探低至110.097一線后反彈走高。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐位於110關口。上行方面,價格初步阻力目標考驗110.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,低位交投于1.14000一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標超賣區附近。後市看來,價格支撐依舊考驗1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力初步看向1.15200一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜震蕩收平,窄幅交投于1.27600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,雙線向下延伸,RSI指標超賣。後市看來,價格進一步考驗1.27關口支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.28400一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜大幅收跌,下破1200關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,金價關鍵阻力考驗1200關口。下行方面,金價初步支撐看向1130一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收跌,一度觸及日低65.70一線后收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於66.30一線。上行方面,油價阻力位於68.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,最低觸及25141一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25400一線。下行方面,價格支撐進一步看向25000關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收低,一度下破22000關口后收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小向下。後市來看,價格支撐位依舊考驗22000關口,上方阻力位看向22400一線。

 

 

 市場報告                     2018-08-13

     
Market Summary
週五(8月10日)日內公佈的美國7月消費者物價指數月率公佈值為0.2%,符合預期;7月核心消費者物價指數年率公佈值為2.4%,好於預期2.3%。同時美國總統特朗普宣布對土耳其鋼鋁徵收的關稅翻倍,鋁關稅調整為20%,鋼鐵關稅調整為50%。此舉推波助瀾,美元指數強勢上漲,並跨越96關口,最高觸及96.47,並加速了土耳其里拉的暴跌。歐元/美元之所以跌破1.15000大關至2018年來新低1.13868,主要就是受到同屬歐元區的土耳其里拉暴跌的拖累。

現貨黃金週五亞市早盤開於1212.10美元/金衡盎司後,金價窄幅波動,多空膠著,但空方略微佔優。歐市金價大幅下挫,錄得日內低點1205.40美元/金衡盎司後反彈,多頭再度上攻。美市多頭拉升,金價不斷走高,錄得日內高點1216.85美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價再度跳水,失去此前部分漲幅後轉盤整,終收於1211.00美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五收漲0.91美元,或1.36%,報67.61美元/桶。雖然美國和土耳其的關係緊張打壓了投資者對原油等風險資產的買需,不過伊朗制裁結合其他地區的產量問題,將令全球原油市場供應面面臨挑戰,因此為油價帶來強勁提振。

美國股市在週五走低,其中基礎材料、金融和科技等下跌的板塊帶領股指走低。道瓊工業指數下跌196.09點,或0.77%,至25,313.14點;標準普爾500指數下跌20.30點,或0.71%,至2,833.28點;納斯達克指數下跌52.67點,或0.67%,至7,839.11點。

個股方面,沃爾瑪公司 WMT上漲1.31%;雪佛龍公司 CVX上漲了0.66%。英特爾公司 INTC上漲2.57%;卡特彼勒公司 CAT下跌1.88%。福斯公司 FLS股票大漲至一年高點,漲幅為2.52%。 Aralez Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ARLZ股票大跌至歷史低點,下挫83.14%。Trade Desk Inc TTD股票大漲至歷史高點,拉升37.13%。

日本股市週五下跌,受半導體相關類股大跌拖累,因之前摩根士丹利下調了對美國芯片行業的看法,這抵消了日本第二季經濟增長數據好於預期帶來的提振。日經指數收低1.3%至22,298.08點,為7月12日以來最低收位。

個股方面,芯片設備生產商東京電子跌3.6%,愛德萬測試跌4.9%,迪恩士跌3.9%,矽片生產商勝高驟跌4.7%。除芯片相關個股外,週五下跌股中還包括保險及航運股,第一生命控股收跌3.3%;商船三井下跌2.1%。與此同時,富士膠片大漲3.5%,此前該公司稱將回購至多1,000億日元的股票。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜回落收跌,一度探低至110.495一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於110.500一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標考驗110.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續收跌,刷新新低至1.13868一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐進一步考驗1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力初步看向1.15000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜延續收跌,再創新低至1.27229一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,雙線向下延伸,RSI指標超賣。後市看來,價格進一步考驗1.27關口支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.28400一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜震蕩收跌,交投于1212一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力考驗1220.00一線。下行方面,金價關鍵支撐考驗1200關口。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,一度觸及日低66.13一線反彈走高。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於66.00關口。上行方面,油價阻力位於68.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜回落收跌,最低觸及25212一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,雙線死叉,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25410一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25200一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅收跌,逼近22000關口附近尋求支撐。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下。後市來看,價格支撐位考驗22000關口,上方阻力位看向22400一線。