The path of least resistance is higher in the view of Rabobank analysts, as the herd of systematic funds begin accumulating a “long” oil position and risk parity funds increase position sizing in 2020.
“Looking forward we see the path of least resistance for oil markets as higher given that we expect the herd of systematic funds to begin accumulating significant oil length in the months ahead. The forward “carry” signal remains strongly “bullish” and momentum and trend signals are in the process of moving from “short” to “long.” Seasonal algorithms will then flip from “short” to “long” early in 2020 providing a another wave of speculative buying.”
“We also expect position sizing from the “Managed Money” crowd to grow larger in 2020 as the oil market shifts into a higher price and lower volatility regime. Our base case remains for Brent to trade in the low 70s in 2020.”