• Asset shows indecisiveness on ‘Spinning Top’ candlestick formation.
  • The RSI (14) looks to violate 40.00 on the downside for the first time this year.
  • Swiff franc bulls have faced barricades at 200 EMA.

The USD/CHF pair has been bounced back sharply after tumbling below the round level support of 0.9200. The major has witnessed a minor responsive buying from the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9217, after a two-day intensified sell-off.

On the daily scale, the trendline placed from January 13 low at 0.9092, adjoining the February 21 low at 0.9150 is providing a cushion to the asset. The formation of the ‘Spinning Top’ candlestick pattern near the trendline placed signals an indecisiveness in the sentiments of the market participants. The asset is established below 50 EMA at 0.9264, which adds to the downside filters.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range but is likely to skid below 40.00 for the first time this year, which will result in intensified selling by investors.

Should the asset drops below the ‘Spinning Top’ candlestick formation at 0.9195, a bearish trigger will drag the asset towards monthly lows and January 24 low at 0.9150 and 0.9109 respectively.

On the contrary, greenback bulls can obtain control if the asset advances above the 50 EMA at 0.9264. This will drive the asset towards March 28 high at 0.9293, followed by March 30 high at 0.9319.

USD/CHF daily chart  

 

  • AUD/USD bears take charge and are moving in for the kill. 
  • 0.7450 is the focus for the sessions ahead. 

AUD/USD is under pressure below a wall of resistance on the daily chart and is in the hands of the bears leaving the focus on the downside. The prior resistance has a confluence with the 50% mean reversion target while the 21-day moving average is aligned in this area as well for additional confluence:

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD H4 chart

From a 4-hour perspective, the pair is making tracks to the downside following a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior bearish impulse and the 21 moving average. Bears will be seeking a break of the 0.7450s for a faster trip to 0.74 the figure.

  • The NZD/USD fell on the last day of March amid a downbeat market mood.
  • Russia will fulfill natural gas agreements but must be paid in Russian roubles.
  • US Core PCE, the Fed’s inflation gauge, rose by 5.4% y/y.
  • NZD/USD Price Forecast: Two bearish signals suggest more US dollar strength lies ahead.

After Wednesday’s attempt to reclaim 0.7000 as trader’s book profits, the New Zealand dollar retreats amidst quarter and month-end flows, a risk-off market mood, and broad US dollar strength. At 0.6933, the NZD/USD reflects the aforementioned.

Geopolitical affairs dominate headlines and market mood as March ends

Meanwhile, as Wall Street closes, the market sentiment is negative, spurred by no meaningful resolution between Russia and Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterating to Europe that payments for natural gas need to be in roubles; otherwise, if demands are not met, active contracts would be halted. Later, the French Finance Minister, Le Maire, said that France and Germany are preparing for a probable scenario of a halt in Russian gas flows.

That headline tumbled oil prices and dragged commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar and the antipodeans.

Meanwhile, the greenback finished March on the right foot, as portrayed by the US Dollar Index, rising 0.53%, up at 98.361. Contrarily, US Treasuries recorded gains at the short-end of the curve, while the 10-year T-note benchmark rate is almost flat at 2.349%.

Aside from those developments, the NZD/USD pair traded as a risk-sensitive currency, weakening on Eastern Europe issues. Furthermore, the lack of economic news from New Zealand keep traders glued to their screens, as US macroeconomic data crossed the wires.

The US docket featured the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which excludes volatile items for February, which rose by 5.4% y/y, lower than the 5.5% estimated.

At the same time, the US Department of Labor revealed that US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on March 26 increased by 202K, higher than the 197K expected.

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The NZD/USD daily chart is forming a bearish-engulfing candle at press time, per the last two-days price action. Also, failure to reclaim 0.7000, for the second time in the previous seven days, formed a double-top, which added to a fundamental bias of US Dollar strength as the Fed hikes rates aggressively, could send the NZD/USD aiming lower.

The NZD/USD first support level would be the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6907. Breach of the latter could send the pair towards an upslope trendline drawn from February lows around 0.6811 and then the 50-DMA as the last line of defense at 0.6757.

 

  • Los flujos de aversión al riesgo en las acciones europeas, junto con la caída en los rendimientos de la zona euro, pesaron mucho sobre el EUR/JPY el jueves.
  • El par cotiza por última vez un 1.0% en el área de 154.50, una fuerte reversión desde los máximos intradiarios más cercanos a 157.00.

Una fuerte caída en los rendimientos de la zona euro, junto con la caída en las principales bolsas de valores europeas en medio de las crecientes tensiones relacionadas con la energía entre la UE y Rusia, empañaron el atractivo del euro el jueves, con la moneda única entre las monedas con peor desempeño en el G10. Si bien las pérdidas del euro frente a sus principales divisas fueron amplias, fueron más agudas frente al yen japonés sensible a los diferenciales de tipos/refugio seguro. Como resultado, el EUR/JPY se desplomó aproximadamente un 1.0% el jueves, su peor desempeño en un día desde el 4 de marzo. Eso hizo que el par retrocediera desde los máximos intradiarios en los 156.50 hasta 154.50.

En los niveles actuales cercanos a 154.50, el par ahora cotiza solo un 0.3% por encima del soporte clave en forma de máximos de 2021 en 154.12. Si las tensiones económicas/energéticas entre la UE y Rusia continúan aumentando hasta el final de la semana (¿podría Rusia comenzar a bloquear los flujos de gas hacia la UE?), entonces el par bien podría extenderse en el reciente movimiento bajista que ya lo ha visto retroceder por encima de 2.0 % desde máximos semanales anteriores alrededor de 137.50. Una ruptura por debajo del soporte de 154.12 abriría la puerta a un empuje a la baja hacia el soporte en las áreas de 153.50 y 153.00.

Las grandes sorpresas alcistas en las estimaciones preliminares de inflación del IAPC de España, Francia y Alemania para marzo en los últimos dos días han hecho poco para detener la reversión a la baja del euro, y el par, en cambio, sigue el ejemplo de los movimientos antes mencionados en los rendimientos y el apetito por el riesgo. Tal como están las cosas, el entorno inflacionario actual de la Eurozona sugiere que el euro está preparado para mantener una considerable ventaja de divergencia de política monetaria sobre el yen.

Ese fue un factor clave que impulsó al par últimamente, pero dado que la incertidumbre económica en la eurozona continúa creciendo como resultado de la guerra ruso-ucraniana, es difícil estar seguro de que el BCE se apegará a su orientación política actual (de QE finalizando en el tercer trimestre y subidas de tipos en el cuarto trimestre). A menos que la incertidumbre geopolítica se aclare un poco, es probable que esto mantenga un control sobre cualquier rebote del EUR/JPY.

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