US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, don’t comply with the recently easing Fed chatters as the gauge jumped to the highest since November 23 on Monday.

That said, the inflation expectations marked a 2.62% figure by the end of Monday’s North American session.

The jump in the inflation expectations could be linked to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis.

On the contrary, CME’s FedWatch Tool marked nearly 5.0% probabilities of a 0.50% Fed rate hike in March, versus more than 50% before a few days. While considering this, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday, “Today I am in favor of a 25 bps move at March meeting.”

It’s worth noting that US President Joe Biden is up for discussing inflation in the State Of The Union (SOTU) speech on Tuesday. Should Biden highlight the rallying inflation expectations and hint at a faster Fed rate-hike, the US dollar will have a reason to consolidate recent losses.

Read: Global financial system on the brink

  • GBP/USD struggle to keep the upside break of the key Fibonacci retracement level.
  • Bearish MACD signals join sustained trading below previously important support to keep sellers hopeful.
  • February’s double tops appear a tough nut to crack for buyers.

GBP/USD seesaws around 1.3415-20 during the initial Asian session on Tuesday, after a brief decline below crucial support the previous day.

In addition to the cable pair’s latest struggle in keeping the rebound, bearish MACD signals the clear break of the previously important support lines and moving averages also favor sellers.

However, a daily closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of December-January upside, around 1.3385 will aim for February’s low near 1.3275, with the 1.3300 likely acting as a buffer.

In a case where GBP/USD remains soft below 1.3275, the late 2021 trough near 1.3160 will be in focus.

On the contrary, buyers may take interest should the latest recovery moves cross the 50% Fibo. level surrounding 1.3455.

Even so, the 100-DMA and the support-turned-resistance line from December, respectively around 1.3500 and 1.3510, will challenge the GBP/USD bulls.

It should be noted that the double tops marked in February, near 1.3640-45, become crucial resistance.

GBP/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Pullback expected

 

  • El estado de ánimo pesimista del mercado aumentó la demanda del metal amarillo.
  • Vladimir Putin toma represalias por las sanciones occidentales, poniendo al ejército ruso en alerta nuclear máxima.
  • Pronóstico del precio de XAU/USD: Tiene sesgo alcista pero está sujeto al sentimiento del mercado.

El oro (XAU/USD) alcanzó un máximo diario durante la sesión asiática al comienzo de la semana. El estado de ánimo del mercado financiero empeoró durante el fin de semana cuando la Eurozona, EE.UU., Reino Unido, Canadá, entre otros países, impusieron estrictas sanciones a Ucrania. La respuesta de Rusia fue rápida cuando el presidente Putin puso a su ejército en alerta nuclear máxima. Esos factores causaron una brecha el lunes cuando los mercados abrieron a 1.919,15$. En el momento de escribir este artículo, el XAU/USD cotiza a 1.903$.

Las sanciones incluyeron la eliminación de varios bancos rusos del importante sistema financiero SWIFT. Además, EE. UU. impuso sanciones a las 10 principales instituciones financieras de Rusia mientras congelaba los activos del presidente ruso y los ministros rusos. Además, una docena de oligarcas rusos con vínculos con Putin presenciaron lo mismo junto con una prohibición de viajar.

Mientras tanto, los rendimientos del Tesoro de EE.UU. siguen cayendo, lo que indica que aumentó el apetito por los bonos del Tesoro de EE.UU. Por el contrario, el índice del dólar estadounidense, un indicador del valor del dólar frente a una cesta de seis rivales, avanza un 0.19 %, hasta 96.81$.

La agenda económica de los EE.UU. presentó el balance comercial de bienes de enero, que registró un déficit de 107.63 mil millones de dólares frente a los 100.47 mil millones de dólares estimados. Al mismo tiempo, los índices manufactureros de la Fed de Chicago y Dallas de febrero fueron mejores de lo esperado en 56.3 y 14, respectivamente.

Pronóstico de precios XAU/USD

El oro (XAU/USD) abrió una brecha y registró un máximo diario de 1.919,15$, pero retrocedió hasta el punto de pivote diario del lunes en torno a los 1.897,21$ debido a un cambio en la confianza del mercado. Al final de la sesión, el XAU/USD se acerca a 1.900$, ya que el estado de ánimo del mercado permanece sin cambios.

Indicadores como los promedios móviles diarios (DMA, por sus siglas en inglés) se encuentran por debajo del precio del par, lo que sugiere que el oro tiene un sesgo alcista. El Índice de Fuerza Relativa (RSI) está en 63, apunta más alto, luego de caer a 60.70 el 25 de febrero, confirmando lo anterior, y con suficiente espacio para desbordarse, antes de alcanzar condiciones de sobrecompra.

Dicho esto, la primera resistencia del XAU/USD sería el máximo del 21 de junio de 2021, en 1.916,61$, seguido del máximo diario del 28 de febrero de 1.927,48$ y luego el máximo anual de 1.974,48$.

Niveles técnicos adicionales 

            

  • USD/CAD has tumbled below 1.2700 amid higher oil prices on an escalation in sanctions on Russia.
  • The loonie has also been dumped after the safe-haven assets lose their appeal.
  • OPEC meeting to fix the demand-supply imbalance in oil will remain in focus.

The USD/CAD pair has shrugged off its gains in Thursday’s trading session and has tumbled below 1.2700 despite the unavailability of a material outcome from the Russia-Ukraine peace talks on Monday. This has been considered as a tiny step towards a ceasefire and safe-haven assets have lost their ground. However, the oil prices have remained flat around $96.00 as sanctions on Russia are set to tighten the oil supply in an already tight environment.

Earlier, the sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western leaders in response to its arbitrariness of invading Ukraine had crippled their SWIFT international banking infrastructure. The oil prices were boiling and rided near $100.

Meanwhile, the OPEC meeting on Wednesday whose agenda should be fixing the demand-supply imbalance will provide further guidance for the oil prices. The oil cartel looks to add up the total global supplies higher than the stipulated increment of 400k barrels per day (BPD) in April.

The US, being the largest importer of oil from Canada seems to face serious cash outflows amid rising oil prices, which has underpinned the Canadian dollar against the greenback.

The US dollar index (DXY) has lost its ground amid a risk-off impulse in the market, which has also strengthened the Canadian dollar against the American one.

Majorly, the headlines from the Russia-Ukraine war will remain the major driver for the loonie but investors will also focus on the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data by the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which is due on Tuesday.

 

  • NZD/USD grinds higher around three-day top, pokes February high.
  • Market sentiment dwindles as Russia continues to bombard Ukraine, peace talks extended through the week without any strong results.
  • US dollar tracks downbeat Treasury yields, Wall Street closed mixed.
  • China’s official PMIs will be important in Asia, US ISM PMI, Biden’s speech and risk catalysts will be crucial afterward.

NZD/USD stays on the front foot around 0.6775, taking rounds to a three-day high marked the previous day.

The kiwi pair began the week’s trading with a downside gap but the US dollar weakness and hawkish RBNZ that contrasts the recently softer concerns over Fed seemed to have helped the pair to begin Tuesday’s Asian session on the firmer note.

Despite dashing a 0.50% rate hike, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the hawkish tone intact during the last week, suggesting further interest rate lifts on the cards. That said, the latest comments were from RBNZ Chief Economist Yuong Ha mentioned, “50 bps moves are a possibility if needed.”

On the other hand, CME’s FedWatch Tool marked nearly 5.0% probabilities of a 0.50% Fed rate hike in March, versus more than 50% before a few days. While considering this, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday, “Today I am in favor of a 25 bps move at March meeting.”

Elsewhere, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine came and go without any core results, as expected. The diplomats assured further talks during this week but Moscow isn’t ready to step back as Russian troops bombard civilian buildings in Kyiv. On the other hand, Ukraine President Zelenskyy was quoted by Reuters’ reporter Phil Stewart to consider a no-fly zone for Russian missiles, planes and helicopters. The same would push the US to jump into the battle, as signaled earlier by the White House (WH). However, the WH press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday ruled out the idea of using US troops to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine amid the Russian invasion of the eastern European country.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed and the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped the most since early December 2021, dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) down.

Moving on, NZD/USD traders will take clues from China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI for February for fresh impulse. However, risk catalysts will be more important for clear directions. It’s worth noting that China’s headlines NBS Manufacturing PMI are likely to drop to 49.9 from 50.1, which in turn could allow the pair to consolidate recent gains.

In addition to the China data and Ukraine-Russia headlines, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February and US President Joe Biden’s State Of The Union (SOTU) speech on Tuesday will be important as Biden is up for discussing inflation in the same.

Read: Russian invasion tests central bankers this week

Technical analysis

A clear upside break of a descending resistance line from mid-November, now support around 0.6745, directs NZD/USD buyers towards February’s peak of 0.6810. Though, the 100-DMA level surrounding 0.6850 may challenge the pair’s further advances.

 

  • On Monday, the GBP/JPY seesawed between the 200 and 100-DMA but ended in a bullish tone.
  • The equity markets finished mixed, while the CHF rose almost 1% in the FX space.
  • GBP/JPY Technical Outlook: Neutral-bullish, but downside risks remain due to the closeness of the 200-DM.

The British pound finished Monday’s session in the green following a gap down attributed to geopolitical concerns linked to Ukraine – Russian war. On the weekend, West countries like the US, UK, and Canada, alongside the Eurozone, imposed “rigid” sanctions on Russian Government officials and oligarchs linked to Russian President Putin’s regime. That said, the GBP/JPY gapped down from February 25 close at 154.84 to 153.29, nearby the 200-day moving average (DMA) amid a risk-off market mood, though achieve to recover from daily lows. At the time of writing, the GBP/JPY is trading at 154.29.

Wall Street’s, reflected the actual downbear market mood, as shown by  US equities finished in the red, except for the Nasdaq Composite, rising 0.34%, finishing at 14,237.81. In the FX space, the main winners were the CHF, followed by the NZD and the JPY, while the EUR was the laggard of the day.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the overnight for North American traders, the GBP/JPY resumed its upward move, after gapping down, aimed towards the 155.00 mark, but failed short 2-pips. Then, the pair dropped to the 154.00 area and stabilized around 154.30.

The GBP/JPY is neutral biased. Monday’s price action seesawed between the 200-DMA on the bottom and the 100-DMA on the top but ultimately closed seven-pips short of the latter.

Therefore, the GBP/JPY is neutral-upward biased though downside risks remain, to the closeness of the 200-DMA. The cross-currency pair’s first resistance would be the 100-DMA at 154.38. Breach of the latter would expose 155.00, followed by the 50-DMA at 155.48.

 

  • AUD/USD is eyeing 0.7300 amid a risk-off impulse despite no outcome of Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
  • Investors will focus on monetary policy decisions from the RBA.
  • Market estimates see an interest rate hike of 15 bps in the July-September quarter by the RBA.

The AUD/USD pair has witnessed a juggernaut rally after a bearish opening gap on Monday. The major has added 0.46% after surpassing Friday’s high at 0.7237 and trading near 0.7263, at the press time. There is no denying the fact that the rally is backed by a rebound in the market impulse. The market has remained vulnerable for risk-perceived assets on the continuous invasion of Ukraine by the Kremlin despite escalating sanctions to cripple its economy has improved the safe-haven appeal.

A pullback has been observed in the market impulse after a spree of risk-aversion appeal in the market. The investors have considered the peace talks between Ukraine and Moscow as an initiative to ceasefire despite the fact that the negotiations have ended with no material outcome.

Apart from the improvement in risk appetite, Tuesday’s monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is in focus.

Investors should be cognizant that the RBA is maintaining its status quo by keeping the benchmark rates unchanged. However, to contain the soaring inflation at 3.5%, recorded in Dec 2021, over the targeted inflation rate of 2-3%, RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe might resort to raising interest rates now.

In the latest Feb. 18-24 Reuters poll, economists brought forward their rate hike expectations for a fourth straight month and expect the RBA to raise its key interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.25% in the July-September quarter, as per Reuters. Therefore, the market doesn’t see an interest rate hike n Monday.

The US dollar index (DXY) tumbles below 97.00 amid a risk-off impulse in the market, which has brought a pullback in the greenback. Meanwhile, the monthly Retail Sales from the Australian Bureau of Statistics have jumped to 1.8% from the previous print of (4.4%), which has also underpinned the Aussie against the greenback.

 

Lo que debes saber el martes 1 de marzo:

El sentimiento relacionado con el riesgo se mantuvo como el principal motor del mercado. Los activos de refugio seguro subieron en la apertura semanal en medio de la escalada de la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania. El sentimiento mejoró temporalmente a principios de la sesión estadounidense en medio de las conversaciones de paz. Sin embargo, tales conversaciones terminaron sin decisiones. Dentro de unos días tendrá lugar una nueva ronda de conversaciones, pero las hostilidades se reanudaron cuando Moscú bombardeó edificios civiles cerca de Kiev.

El presidente Putin ignora las sanciones y el caos financiero: Rusia impone un alto a los pagos de seguridad de los extranjeros. Los mercados bursátiles locales permanecerán cerrados el martes, mientras que el RUB se desplomó a mínimos históricos frente al dólar.

Las naciones occidentales también están intensificando sus preparativos de guerra en el Báltico. Alemania y Croacia, entre otros países, anunciaron preparativos defensivos.

La presidenta del BCE, Christine Lagarde, tuiteó: “Reitero que el BCE implementará las sanciones decididas por la UE, y estamos listos para hacer todo lo que sea necesario dentro de nuestro mandato para garantizar la estabilidad de precios y la estabilidad financiera”.

El par EUR/USD flirteó con el mínimo anual antes de saltar, ahora cotizando alrededor del nivel de 1.1200. El GBP/USD registró un modesto avance intradiario y se ubicó alrededor de 1.3400. Las divisas vinculadas a materias primas estuvieron entre las de mejor desempeño frente al dólar, con el AUD/USD operando alrededor de 0.7250 y el USD/CAD en la zona de precios de 1.2690. El franco suizo y el JPY subieron firmemente frente al dólar.

El oro al contado cotiza en torno a los 1.900$ la onza troy, mientras que el barril de WTI opera en torno a los 95.30$, ambos por encima del cierre del viernes.

La mayor demanda de bonos del gobierno arrastró los rendimientos a la baja. Mientras tanto, la mayoría de los índices globales cotizaban en números rojos.

  • Las acciones de EE.UU. fueron mixtas el lunes cuando los inversores digirieron las nuevas sanciones occidentales contra Rusia a medida que avanzaba la guerra en Ucrania.
  • El S&P 500 cerró con una caída del 0,25% en los 4370, después de haber oscilado dentro de un rango de 60 puntos 4320-4380 en el día.
  • En una semana repleta de datos de EE.UU. y la Fed, es probable que la geopolítica siga siendo el principal impulsor del mercado.

Las acciones de EE.UU. operaron mixtas el lunes junto con sus pares globales cuando los inversores digirieron el último aluvión de sanciones occidentales contra Rusia cuando su invasión de Ucrania entró en el quinto día. El S&P 500 cerró con una caída del 0.25% en los 4.370, después de haber oscilado dentro de un rango de 60 pips en 4.320-4.380 en el día. El índice tecnológico Nasdaq 100 subió un 0.3%, hasta los 14.200, ayudado por los rendimientos más bajos de EE.UU. El Dow Jones bajó un 0.5% para volver a caer por debajo de 34.000. El índice de volatilidad S&P 500 CBOE, aunque bien lejos de los máximos intradiarios cercanos a 34.0, subió más de dos puntos a alrededor de 30,0.

Algunos bancos rusos serán expulsados ​​​​de SWIFT, el CBR vio congeladas la mayoría de sus activos, todos los aviones rusos fueron prohibidos en el espacio aéreo de la UE y las naciones de la OTAN anunciaron intenciones de aumentar drásticamente la ayuda militar a Ucrania. Posteriormente, los precios de la energía se dispararon, lo que exacerbó los temores de una inflación persistente e incluso una estanflación en Europa. Si bien esos temores no son tan agudos en los EE.UU., se espera que los datos y la retórica de la Fed de esta semana subrayen el hecho de que la economía de los EE.UU. sigue inexorable en el camino hacia tasas de interés más altas este año y el próximo. Los comentaristas del mercado han citado que esta es la razón principal del retroceso de las acciones de este año.

El martes se publica la encuesta del PMI manufacturero del ISM de enero, el miércoles se presenta el primer día del testimonio semestral del presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, ante el Congreso, mientras que el jueves se publica el segundo día y el PMI de servicios del ISM. El viernes, la Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales publicará el informe del mercado laboral de febrero. Por lo tanto, es una semana ocupada, pero los datos, no obstante, jugarán un papel secundario frente a la geopolítica; Cualquier señal de un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania podría hacer que el apetito por el riesgo regrese con fuerza.