The Financial Times has released an article that will likely make sterling investors nervous as Brussels has been urged to prepare a contingency plan for the UK trade war. The ”EU countries want European Commission to be ready if Britain suspends key part of Brexit deal,” the Financial Times explained. 

”Leading EU member states are pressing Brussels to draw up tough retaliatory measures should the UK carry out its threat to suspend trading arrangements for Northern Ireland enshrined in the Brexit deal.

Representatives of five member states on Monday met European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic, the EU Brexit negotiator, to demand he come up with contingency plans for a possible trade war, diplomats have told the Financial Times.”

As bilateral discussions start again in earnest over the Northern Ireland Protocol, there’s definite potential for things to get a lot messier which is going to be a headwind for the pound. 

 UK Brexit Minister Lord Frost’s demand to rewrite the Protocol to at least dilute the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in overseeing the rules. If Lord Frost does not back down on this, an EU official said it will be “a very big gap between the ideas we are putting on the table today and what the UK Government is asking for.”

GBP/USD weekly chart

From a weekly perspective, considering the price dropped below all of the support structures which it is now testing again as resistance, the bias remains bearish. A correction to the trendline resistance and a 61.8% Fibonacci is underway, but bears are likely lurking at these levels. 

  • S&P 500 SPX gained 74.35 points, or 1.70%.
  • Nasdaq Composite IXIC gained 248.97 points, or 1.71%.
  • The DJI rose 532.21 points, ending up 1.55%.

US stocks charged higher on Thursday on strong earnings from companies including Morgan Stanley and UnitedHealth. Additionally, US data came in contrary to the inflation theme as well, cooling fears of stagflation. 

As for the performance of the benchmarks, the S&P 500 added 74.35 points, or 1.70%, to end at 4,438.15 points, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 248.97 points, or 1.71%, to 14,824.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI gained 532.21 points, or 1.55%, to 34,910.02. As for industry performaces, the technology sector was the strongest in the S&P with giants Microsoft Corp MSFT and Apple Inc AAPL climbing. Individual shares in the financial bloc, Citigroup C, Bank of America Corp BAC and Morgan Stanley MS were firmer following results that were released that topped quarterly earnings estimates.

US data dials down inflation nerves

Meanwhile, US data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week fell close to a 19-month low, and a separate report showed producer prices eased in September to the lowest level this year as airline passenger service costs plunged. The seasonally adjusted PPI rose 0.5%, compared with a 0.7% gain in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. The latest print was the lowest since December.

 

 

 

 

Lo que necesita saber el viernes 15 de octubre:

Dado que los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro se mantuvieron en el extremo inferior del rango semanal, el dólar se mantuvo débil. El rendimiento de los Bonos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos a 10 años hizo suelo en el 1.507%, terminando el día cerca. En cuanto al dólar, logró publicar un modesto avance intradiario frente al euro y al franco suizo.

Wall Street se recuperó gracias a informes de ganancias mejores de lo esperado de grandes nombres, incluidos bancos como Morgan Stanley, Bank of America y Citigroup.

Los datos optimistas de EE.UU. proporcionaron un soporte adicional al estado de ánimo del mercado. El índice de precios al productor de septiembre subió un 0.5% mensual y un 8.6% interanual, más alto que las lecturas de agosto, aunque decepcionando las expectativas del mercado, mientras que las solicitudes iniciales de desempleo para la semana que terminó el 8 de octubre se imprimieron en 293.000, mucho mejor que los 319.000 esperados.

EUR/USD perdió  el nivel 1.1600, terminando el día unos pips por debajo del nivel. El GBP/USD cerró en 1.3860, mientras que las divisas vinculadas a las materias primas fueron las de mejor comportamiento. AUD/USD recuperó la marca de 0.7400, mientras que el USD/CAD cayó a 1.2354, un nuevo mínimo de varias semanas.

Los precios del petróleo subieron. La Agencia Internacional de Energía dijo que los precios récord del gas natural impulsarían la demanda de petróleo y el principal productor de petróleo, Arabia Saudita, rechazó los pedidos de suministro adicional de la OPEP +. El WTI cerró en 81.40$ el barril. El oro coqueteó con 1.800$ la onza troy, terminando el día justo por debajo del nivel.

El viernes traerá las ventas minoristas de EE.UU. y el índice de sentimiento del consumidor de Michigan.

  • El euro reanuda su tendencia bajista para alcanzar mínimos de 19 meses en 0,8450.
  • La libra sigue cotizando en las expectativas de alza del Banco de Inglaterra.
  • Un movimiento sostenido por debajo de 0.8437 aceleraría la tendencia bajista – Credit Suisse.

El EUR ha reanudado su tendencia negativa frente a la libra esterlina el jueves, alcanzando precios por debajo de 0.8470 por primera vez desde agosto pasado, para probar mínimos de 19 meses en 0.8450, que hasta ahora ha resistido la presión.

La libra se mantiene firme ante las expectativas de ajuste del BoE

La libra esterlina mantiene un tono firme, impulsada por las expectativas del mercado de una subida de tipos del Banco de Inglaterra a principios del próximo año, y probablemente se endurecerá aún más para hacer frente a las presiones inflacionarias. Los crecientes precios de la energía han empujado la inflación anual a niveles casi el doble del objetivo del Banco de Inglaterra para la estabilidad de precios, lo que ha llevado a algunos funcionarios del Banco a admitir la posibilidad de acelerar el plan de normalización de la política monetaria.

Además, la propuesta de la Unión Europea de eliminar los controles personalizados para los productos que llegan a Irlanda del Norte desde Gran Bretaña ha aliviado los temores sobre otro enfrentamiento con la Unión, que ha aumentado la demanda de la libra.

EUR/GBP: El incumplimiento de 0.8437 aceleraría la tendencia bajista – Credit Suisse

Según el equipo de análisis de divisas de Credit Suisse, se espera que el área de soporte de 0.8449/37 se enfríe, aunque advierten sobre la posibilidad de una aceleración a la baja si dicho nivel se rompe: en el canal, un movimiento sostenido por debajo de 0.8437 marcaría una aceleración en la tendencia bajista, y luego expondría los mínimos clave de 2019 y 2020 en 0.8281/39 ”.

Niveles técnicos 

                                                  

  • The GBP/USD pair stalls at the 50-DMA retrace below 1.3700.
  • Risk-on market sentiment boosts the GBP undermines the greenback.
  • GBP/USD: The Relative Strength Index above 50, aiming higher, indicates that there could be a leg-up near 1.3800.

The GBP/USD retreats from the daily high around 1.3733, advances 0.20% during the New York session, trading at 1.3688 at the time of writing. The British pound could not hold to the 1.3700 level, broke the latter in a counter-trend move, which in 4-hours witnessed a 60 pip drop.

Risk-on market sentiment drives the market, portrayed by US equity indexes, posting gains between 1.47% and 1.82%.  Risk-sensitive currencies, like the AUD and the GBP, are greatly favored. Additionally,  the British pound had a boost over the weekend when Bank of England’s members expressed their interest in tackling rising inflation by hiking interest rates.

The greenback has been under selling pressure across the board, with the US Dollar Index that measures the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, slides 0.11%, clings to 93.97. Nevertheless, despite those factors, the US dollar trimmed some of its losses against the Sterling.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Daily chart

Despite the broad US dollar weakness, the Sterling advance stalled at the 50-day moving average, around 1.3716. The subsequent price action exerted downward pressure on the pair. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strenght Index (RSI) at 52 indicate that the GBP/USD pair might print another leg-up before resuming the downward trend, but firstly the pair will need a daily close above the 50-DMA.

In that outcome, the following leg-up could reach the 1.3800 figure, which confluences with the 78.6% Fibo retracements (from the September 14 pivot high to the September 29 pivot low), before resuming to the downside.

On the flip side, failure at 1.3700, could see the pair sliding towards the 1.3600 figure, followed immediately by the lows of the last five days, around 1.3570.

KEY ADDITIONAL LEVELS TO WATCH

 

What you need to know on  Friday, October 15:

As Treasury yields held at the lower end of the weekly range, the dollar remained weak. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note bottomed at 1.507%, ending the day nearby. As for the greenback, it managed to post a modest intraday advance against the EUR and the CHF.

Wall Street rallied on the back of better than expected earnings reports from big names, including banks such as Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup.

Upbeat US data provided additional support to the market’s mood. The September Producer Price Index was up 0.5% MoM and 8.6% YoY, higher than the August readings although below the market’s expectations,while Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 8 printed at 293K, much better than the 319K expected. 

EUR/USD lost the 1.1600 threshold, ending the day a few pips below the level. GBP/USD settled at 1.3860, while commodity-linked currencies were the best performers. AUD/USD regained the 0.7400 mark, while USD/CAD fell to 1.2354, a fresh multi-week low.

Oil prices were up. The International Energy Agency said that record natural gas prices would boost demand for oil and top oil producer Saudi Arabia dismissed calls for additional OPEC+ supply. WTI settled at $81.40 a barrel. Gold flirted with $1,800 a troy ounce, ending the day just below the level.

Friday will bring US Retail Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Ethereum Classic price will tap $280 by early 2022

 


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  • Bulls have broken the weekly trendline resistance but face a critical level.  
  • AUD/USD eyes a run to 0.7480 as the last defence for a full-on bullish breakout. 
  • Commodity currencies are bid on the inflation theme and rising prices. 

AUD/USD is up some 0.5% on the day and the pair have travelled from a low of 0.7372 to a high of 0.7426 as the commodity currencies continue to top the forex leader boards on a daily basis. Commodities are strong with the CRB index moving to fresh cycle highs on the day in what has been a monumental rally since April 2020. AUD, in particular, is enjoying a comeback in iron ore prices with a fresh corrective high made at the start of the week.

Evergrande remains a dark cloud for AUD

However, the Evergrande crisis is a dark cloud hanging over the Australian economy and its reliance on its biggest export, iron ore. Prices sat just over $US120 ($164) per tonne of 62 per cent at the end of last week, well below the prices reached in mid-July this year, when they topped $US200 per tonne. Considering the Chinese property shake-out, the fastest and largest iron ore crash in history would be expected to resume its southerly trajectory. UBS estimates there are 10 developers with potentially risky positions with combined contract sales of 1.86tn yuan – or 2.7 times Evergrande’s size. In other words, Evergrande is only the tip of the iceberg.

Chinese construction is likely to fall over the next year and that would be expected to equate to hundreds of millions of tonnes of less steel that will be needed. This would equate to hundreds of million tonnes of iron ore equivalent also. This puts iron ore on track to fall below $100 a tonne and perhaps to even match its 2015 price crash to somewhere below $50 in the near future and weigh heavily on AUD.

USD profit-taking in play

Meanwhile, the US dollar edged down against major peers on Thursday, touching a 10-day low as rising risk appetite and profit-taking ensued at the same time. Producer price growth slowed in September to the lowest level this year as airline passenger service costs plunged. The seasonally adjusted producer price index rose 0.5%, compared with a 0.7% gain in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. The latest print was the lowest since December and came in line with the consensus on Econoday.

Nevertheless, there are expectations that the US Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy more quickly than previously expected amid an improving economy and surging inflation that had fuelled a rise in the greenback since early September. The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting was more hawkish than expected and have confirmed the tapering of stimulus is likely to start as soon as November. The dollar index is back to being flat at the time of writing at 93.999. However, it had met its lowest since Oct 5 at 93.759. On Tuesday this week, it had reached a one-year high at 94.563.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The price is meeting a familiar level on the weekly chart of Sep 2020 which could prove to as resistance and send the pair back to test what is now a counter trendline. A break of the highs, however, will bring in the Sep tweezer top near 0.7480 which guards a full-on breakout to the upside. The market will otherwise be bearish below 0.7220. 

  • Los futuros del WTI están limitados en 81.61$, se mantienen estables por encima de 80.00$.
  • Según los pronósticos de la OPEP, las acciones estadounidenses pesan sobre los precios del petróleo.
  • Los precios del petróleo en Estados Unidos se consolidan entre 79.45$ y 81.60$.

Los futuros del WTI del primer mes han sido rechazados en un máximo de sesión de 81.61$ el día de hoy, y los precios se han retirado moderadamente durante la sesión de negociación de Estados Unidos del jueves. Los precios del petróleo, sin embargo, se mantienen bastante estables, consolidándose en máximos a largo plazo, con intentos a la baja contenidos por encima del nivel psicológico de 80$.

OPEP, el aumento de las existencias de EE.UU. pesa sobre los precios del petróleo

El rally del West Texas Intermediate se detuvo el miércoles, después de subir por encima de los 80$. La OPEP + publicó una revisión a la baja de sus estimaciones de crecimiento de la demanda de petróleo para 2021, lo que podría haber aliviado la presión alcista sobre los precios del crudo.

Además, la Administración de Información de Energía de EE.UU. (EIA) informó el jueves un aumento mucho mayor de lo esperado en las existencias de petróleo, lo que pesa aún más los precios. Los inventarios comerciales de petróleo crudo aumentaron en 6 millones de barriles en la semana del 8 de octubre en los EE.UU., según la EIA, mucho más allá de la acumulación de 0.7 millones anticipada por el mercado.

Los precios del WTI permanecen limitados por debajo de 81.60$

Los precios del crudo se han mantenido operando dentro de un rango durante los últimos dos días, atrapados entre 79.40$ y 81.60$ después de alcanzar un máximo por encima de 82.00$ el lunes pasado. Por el lado positivo, los futuros de WTI deben confirmar por encima de los 81.60$ (máximo del 12 de octubre) y 82.15$ (máximo del 11 de octubre) para fijar su enfoque en el área de 90.00$ (78.6% de retroceso de Fibonacci de la caída de 2014-2016).

En el lado negativo, por debajo de los 80.00$ (nivel psicológico y 79.45$ (12, 13 de octubre), el WTI podría perder su impulso alcista y extender su inversión hacia 78.65$ (mínimo del 8 de octubre, 10 de octubre).