• XAG/USD soars as the US bond yields drop two basis points, sitting around 1.52%.
  • A bullish piercing pattern in the daily chart suggests that silver is poised for a rebound.
  • Positive divergence in a daily chart supports XAG/USD prospects of higher prices.

Silver (XAG/USD) is trimming two-day losses, is climbing 3.05% in the day, trading at $22.17 at the time of writing. The rally in XAG/USD is underpinned, by falling US bond yields, with the 10-year benchmark note coupon sitting at 1.520%, down almost two basis points (bps).

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six currencies, is sliding for the first day out of two, 0.20%, currently at 94.22.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Daily chart

XAG/USD price action depicts some confluences. First, the price action of the last two days looks like a bullish piercing pattern, suggesting upside bias. Second, the price action has printed successive lower lows, that coupled with the Relative Strength Index, consecutive higher-lows, portrays a positive divergence that could propel the white-metal for higher prices.

The first supply zone would be $23.00. A break of the latter would expose the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $23.79, followed by the September 3 high at $24.86

On the other hand, failure at $22.00 could pave the way for further losses. The first demand zone would be $21.00. A break of that level could push XAG/USD to the psychological $20.00, followed by July 15, 2020, high at $19.48.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38, aiming higher, suggest an easing downward pressure. While RSI remains below the 50-midline, the downtrend could resume; however, the positive divergence could motivate buyers to push prices up. Caution is warranted.

ADDITIONAL LEVELS TO WATCH

 

What you need to know on Friday, October 1:

Risk aversion once again dominated financial markets, although the American currency was not the only beneficiary. Gold prices were firmly up, while safe-haven currencies received attention during the last trading session of the month.

The greenback has reached overbought conditions against most major rivals, with higher chances of a corrective decline.

US Q2 Gross Domestic Product was upwardly revised to 6.7% QoQ, slightly better than anticipated. However,employment-related data keeps disappointing ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report to be out next week. US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said that one good employment report could convince him they have reached the employment threshold needed to reduce financial support.

The EUR/USD pair fell to a fresh 2021 low of 1.1562 while GBP/USD bottomed at 1.3516. USD/JPY changed course during US trading hours and settled at 111.34. Commodity-linked currencies recovered nicely, although, in the wider perspective, the advances seem corrective.

Spot gold added roughly $40.00 per troy ounce, ending the day around $1,756.00. Crude oil prices dipped intraday, but ended up with modest gains, with WTI settling at $75.20 a barrel.

Wall Street plummeted at the beginning of the session but stabilized in the red after a modest bounce from intraday lows. Government bond yields retained monthly gains and settled at the upper end of their monthly range.

Safemoon could be poised for a return to $0.0000016


Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:

Rate this content
  • EUR/USD is potential carving out a new range between 1.1495 and 1.1602.
  • Bears are looking to the highs of March 2020 as the next downside target. 

EUR/USD has been a real head turner this month, sliding from 1.1909 the high for September to a low of 1.1562 on this final day for the month. 

On the upside, 1.1730 is key resistance on the monthly chart. However, daily and monthly RSIs continue to indicate downside momentum, as does the current monthly engulfing candle.

 The 38.2% Fib of 1.0636-1.2349 was pierced again and EUR/USD holds below the 10-DMA.

August’s monthly low and November’s 1.1608 monthly low were broken and the bears will now be in the running for a significant continuation to the downside for the weeks ahead.

The 50% mean reversion target is located near 1.1495 which meets the March 20 highs as a confluence target. 

In reaching the target, this could leave 1.1602 on the upside as a likey resistance on a retest of the upside. 

  • US dollar’s reversal from 0.9350 area has been contained above 0.9320.
  • The dollar consolidates gains after a four-day rally.
  • Above 0.9356/69, the pair could accelerate the uptrend towards 0.9473 – Credit Suisse.

The US dollar is consolidating gains around 0.9340 on Thursday after a four-day rally from 0.9240. The pair’s pullback from 5, ½-month highs  0.9365 has been contained above previous highs at 0.9320/30 in a choppy trading session.

US dollar’s rally loses steam

The greenback is hesitating after having appreciated beyond 1% over the last four days, buoyed by the rally in US bond’s yields amid market expectations that the Federal Reserve might start tapering bond purchases as early as November.

The souring market mood on Thursday’s American Session, with stock markets turning negative after a positive opening, is weighing on the USD, in favor of the safe-haven Swiss Franc.

Furthermore, the economic calendar has not been particularly dollar-supportive. Weekly jobless claims increased for the third consecutive time on the week of September 25, with 362,000 new applications, while the second quarter’s US Gross Domestic Product was revised up to a 6.7% increase from the previous 6.6% estimation.

USD/CHF: Breach of 0.9356/69 resistance will open the path to 0.9473 – Credit Suisse

The pair is now capped below important resistance at 0.9356/69 which, according to Credit Suisse’s FX Analysis Team, would open the path to 0.9473: “It’s worth reiterating that there is little in the way of meaningful resistance if a breakout above 0.9356/69 is seen until the .9473 high, which suggests we could see a sharp acceleration in momentum.”

Technical levels to watch

 

 

  • Gold prices correct into a deep resistance structure.
  • US dollar expected to remain strong in an inflationary environment, Fed narrative. 

The gold price has made an impressive correction on Thursday from a technical demand area on the daily chart with XAU/USD rallying from a low of $1,722.29 to a high of $1,764.24. At $1,756, gold is up 1.72% at the time of writing. 

The rebound in gold prices has occurred at the same time that the US dollar sank from a one-year high in what has been volatile trade over the past 24-hours. The  US weekly jobless claims, and as investors consolidated gains after a steep rise the last few sessions, in part driven by a spike in US Treasury yields. 

The market’s narrative surrounding the Federal Reserve and its presumed taper of its monetary stimulus beginning in November has clashed with fears of a global slowdown. Last week, the Fed flagged interest rate increases may follow sooner than expected.

US dollar’s safe-haven appeal

The US dollar has been an attractive safe haven option for investors and it remains the largest-held currency reserve by global central banks. It is seen as a defensive hedge against the fears of rising inflation expectations and bonds nor the yen nor gold are particularly attractive in a world of rising yields. However, corrections are commonplace following such a strong move as we have seen in the greenback. In the third quarter, the dollar is on track to post a 2.1% rise as September draws to a close. 

US dollar’s correction 

Thursday’s economic data made for a perfect storm for a correction in the greenback with US initial jobless claims rising for a third straight week to 362,000 for the period ending Sept. 25. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 335,000 jobless applications for the latest week.

There is an emphasis on the US labour market with respect to taper timings, so it was welcome news for short term contrarian gold traders out there who had been looking for catalysts to confirm an anticipated correction from support in the $1,720s.

”Price action has remained largely contained relative to that of Treasuries and real yields, reflecting a cleaner discretionary and trend-following positioning slate in gold which should keep any weakness from morphing into a rout,” analysts at TD Securities argued. 

”At the same time, evidence is increasingly pointing to ‘stagflationary’ forces — a narrative that continues to capture share of mind, as participants look to a period of high inflation and slowing growth, but this has yet to translate into additional interest for gold.”

US dollar stronger for longer

On the other hand, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman remain highly bullish on the US dollar which is a headwind for gold prices. ”The speed of this dollar move is quite frankly very surprising,” the analysts said. ”Based on the previous experience, we believe that this period of dollar strength still has legs.”

With regards to US yields, the analysts target higher in the 10-year. ”It remains on track to test the May high near 1.70% and then the March 30 high near 1.77%.  The real 10-year yield is also higher and at -0.85% is the highest since July 1.  A break above -0.82% is needed to set up a test of the March 19 high near -0.59%.  If this rise in US yields can be sustained, it is yet another dollar-positive factor to consider.  Of note, the Fed Funds strip now has lift-off in Q4 2022 almost fully priced in.”

Gold technical analysis

The correction in gold has been very strong, bursting through key technical resistances along the Fibonacci scale. In yesterday’s analysis, the 38.2% Fibo was earmarked as a target as follows:

”At this juncture, a daily bullish correction would be anticipated and based on current levels, the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the latest bearish impulse has a direct confluence of where the price might be expected to test. This comes in at an old support and 10 Aug highs, as illustrated in the chart below:”

However, the price has shot through that resistance and all the way to test the 16 Sep support block as follows:

From a weekly perspective, the outlook is as follows:

  • El EUR/JPY acelera su tendencia bajista para alcanzar niveles por debajo de 129.00.
  • El euro sufre en medio de un ambiente de mercado más amargo y datos macroeconómicos débiles.
  • El incumplimiento de la zona de soporte de 129.50/60 ha aumentado el ánimo negativo para el euro.

El euro ha acelerado su reversión frente al yen japonés el jueves. El par ha caído un 0.6% en lo que va del día, alcanzando niveles por debajo de 129.00 después de haber alcanzado un máximo de 130.50 el miércoles.

El euro cae aún más por la aversión al riesgo

La moneda común está perdiendo terreno frente al yen de refugio seguro durante la sesión del mercado estadounidense del jueves, y los principales índices bursátiles giraron a negativos después de una apertura ligeramente positiva.

En Europa, las publicaciones macroeconómicas no han ofrecido soporte a la moneda común. Las cifras de desempleo alemanas han decepcionado, mostrando una caída menor a la esperada en el cambio de desempleo, mientras que los crecientes precios de la energía han impulsado la inflación anual al 4.1%, su nivel más alto en 29 años.

EUR/JPY se hunde por debajo del área de soporte en 129.50/60

Los indicadores técnicos apuntan a la baja después de que el par atravesó el área de soporte en 129.50/60. Ahora el par podría encontrar soporte en 128.75 (máximo del 22 de septiembre) antes de probar un área de soporte importante en 127.90/128.00 (mínimo del 19 de agosto y 23 de septiembre).

Por el lado positivo, el par debería volver por encima del mencionado 129.50/60, donde se encuentran las SMA de 20 y 100 días, para aliviar la presión bajista e intentar alcanzar 130.00 antes de apuntar a un área de resistencia clave entre 130.50 y 130.75 (máximos del 3,8 y 29 de septiembre).

Niveles técnicos 

                              

  • Los futuros del WTI rebotan hasta 75.70$ gracias a la voluntad de China de asegurar el suministro.
  • Los futuros del petróleo crudo se vuelven positivos en los gráficos diarios.
  • Los precios del petróleo perdieron terreno tras un aumento inesperado de los inventarios estadounidenses.

Los futuros del WTI del primer mes se han encogido de hombros ante el tono negativo visto hoy para saltar casi un 3% durante la sesión de negociación de Estados Unidos del jueves. Los informes de que China ha dado prioridad a asegurar el suministro de petróleo para este invierno han provocado un alza en los precios del petróleo.

El petróleo crudo reanuda la tendencia alcista a medida que China ordena almacenar suministros

Los precios del petróleo se han recuperado más de 2 dólares en menos de una hora, borrando pérdidas iniciales y volviéndose positivos en los gráficos diarios tras los informes de las intenciones de China de asegurar el suministro a toda costa, preocupada por la posibilidad de una escasez de energía.

Un informe de Bloomberg afirma que el viceprimer ministro Han Zheng, responsable del sector energético y la producción industrial de la nación. ordenó a las principales empresas estatales chinas que garanticen el suministro de petróleo en una reunión de emergencia celebrada a principios de esta semana.

Los futuros del petróleo crudo de EE.UU. cayeron aproximadamente un 2.3% en el día, luego de un aumento inesperado en los inventarios de EE.UU. La Administración de Información de Energía informó un incremento de 4.6 millones de barriles en la semana del 24 de septiembre frente a las expectativas del mercado de un sorteo de 2.33 millones de barriles.

Niveles técnicos 

WTI

Panorama
Último Precio de Hoy 74.99
Cambio Diario de Hoy 0.38
Cambio Diario de Hoy % 0.51
Apertura Diaria de Hoy 74.61

 

Tendencias
SMA de 20 Diaria 71.17
SMA de 50 Diaria 69.63
SMA de 100 Diaria 69.77
SMA de 200 Diaria 64.17

 

Niveles
Máximo Previo Diario 75.62
Mínimo Previo Diario 73.57
Máximo Previo Semanal 74.15
Mínimo Previo Semanal 69.35
Máximo Previo Mensual 73.54
Mínimo Previo Mensual 61.73
Fibonacci Diario 38.2% 74.83
Fibonacci Diario 61.8% 74.35
Punto Pivote Diario S1 73.58
Punto Pivote Diario S2 72.55
Punto Pivote Diario S3 71.53
Punto Pivote Diario R1 75.63
Punto Pivote Diario R2 76.65
Punto Pivote Diario R3 77.68

 

                            

  • AUD/USD edges higher despite dismal market sentiment.
  • Quarter-end flows, portfolio reshuffling, and US political uncertainties dampen the market sentiment.
  • The US Dollar Index struggles to hold to Wednesday’s gains.

The AUD/USD is recovering from Wednesday’s losses trading at 0.7221, advancing 0.66% in the day at the time of writing.  Quarter and month-end flows, portfolio reshuffling, and US political uncertainties related to the debt ceiling and the spending bill dampened the market sentiment.

The US Dollar Index is steady

Major US stocks are recording losses, except for the technologic Nasdaq Composite, which is up barely up 0.03%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against six currencies, is steady at 94.33, barely down 0.03%.

During the Asian session, good Australian economic data hit the wires. Building permits rose 6.8% for August on a monthly basis, while Private Sector Credit expanded 0.6% MoM. Additionally, coronavirus woes fade as the New South Wales Premier announced that it will ease restrictions on vaccinated people, lifting the Australian dollar spirits.

Across the pond, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on September 24 increased by 362K, 27K more than expected. Further, the 4-week moving average rose to 340K from 335.75K.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released that the US economy in the third quarter increased by 6.7%, more than the 6.6% expected.

On Friday, the Australian economic docket will feature the Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes, both reports related to August figures. On the US front, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Personal Income for August will be revealed at 12:30GMT.  

Later, the Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI’s could provide clues regarding production. Further, the UoM Consumer Sentiment will be disclosed.
 

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Daily chart

The AUD/USD is trading well below the daily moving averages, confirming the downtrend. Price action for the day has been tilted to the upside; however, a daily close above 0.7240 could ease downward pressure. In case of that outcome, the buyers would need to push the pair at least to the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 0.7313 to regain control.

On the flip side, to resume the downtrend, sellers will need a daily close below 0.7200. In a break of the latter, the first support would be the September 29 low at 0.7169, followed by the 2021 low at 0.7105.

The Relative Strength Index is at 42, slightly up, suggesting that exhaustion to the downside is easing, opening the door for another leg-down.

ADDITIONAL LEVELS TO WATCH

 

The US dollar is regaining lost ground, favored by increasing risk aversion during Thursday’s US market session. The pair’s reversal from Wednesday’s high at1.2750 has been contained at 1.2630 before bouncing up to est prices past 1.2700.

The US dollar firms up as sentiment worsens

The greenback has been regaining lost ground against its main rivals amid a somewhat sourer sentiment, in a choppy trading session at month and quarter-end. The US Dollar Index, which retreated about 0.4% during the European session, has firmed up after bouncing at 94.12, returning to 94.40 ad turning positive on the day.

Macroeconomic data has been mixed in the US. New claims for unemployment benefits increased for the third consecutive time, with 362,000 new applicants in the week of September 25, denting demand for the greenback. On the other hand, the US economy grew at a 6.7% pace in the second quarter, a tick up from the 6.6% increment previously estimated.

USD/CAD seen at 1.30 by the end of 2022 – CIBC

From a wider respective, the CIBC FX Analysis team expects the pair to remain at current levels over the next months and CAD depreciation in 2022: “While the BoC is likely to further taper its QE program in October, it will use that same meeting to push back its forecast for achieving a zero output gap into Q4 of 2022, and markets will begin to price in a lighter path for its policy rate as a result. Shortly thereafter, the start of a quick Fed tapering path will have investors upping medium-term projections for the fed funds rate, suggesting a weaker CAD in 2022 (…) Look for USD/CAD to end 2022 at 1.30, with a continued depreciation likely in 2023.”

Technical levels to watch