Lo que necesita saber el miércoles 1 de julio:

El índice del dólar estadounidense subió al nivel más alto hasta el momento desde que despegó del nivel de 90.441 tras la sorpresiva postura agresiva de la Reserva Federal el 16 de junio.

Con un máximo de 92.448, el DXY cotizó en su mejor nivel desde el 8 de abril a principios de este año.

Una combinación de datos sólidos de EE.UU., la nueva cepa de covid (delta), oradores agresivos de la Fed y la anticipación de un informe saludable de nóminas no agrícolas el viernes ayudaron al dólar a mantener su fortaleza el miércoles. Robert Kaplan, de la Fed, reafirmó su postura agresiva y dijo: “Me gustaría reducir antes de fin de año”. Eso, junto con las nóminas privadas cada vez más sólidas en junio, encaminaron al dólar estadounidense hacia su mejor mes en 4 años y medio.

El par EUR/USD extendió sus pérdidas por debajo de 1.1900 para probar los mínimos de junio en la zona de precios de 1.1840. Por debajo de ese nivel, es probable que el caso bajista gane impulso. Por otro lado, ha surgido un patrón técnico alcista que plantea perspectivas de una corrección significativa al alza para los próximos días, poniendo en tela de juicio la narrativa alcista del dólar estadounidense para el futuro inmediato, al menos desde una perspectiva técnica.

El par GBP/USD se estableció en torno a 1.3830 y sigue debilitado por los nervios del Brexit relacionados con el Protocolo de Irlanda del Norte. El período de gracia actual que exonera a los controles sobre las salchichas y otras carnes refrigeradas de fabricación británica que se trasladan a Irlanda del Norte debía finalizar el miércoles. La libra también enfrenta incertidumbre sobre el diferencial de la variante Delta de COVID-19 en el Reino Unido. A principios de este mes obligó al gobierno a retrasar la reapertura total. 

El AUD/USD cayó aún más para romper el nivel de 0.7500 para marcar un nuevo mínimo de 0.7491, mientras que el USD/CAD continuó probando niveles bajistas hasta 1.2400 nuevamente en la sesión de Nueva York para tocar un máximo de 1.2421, recuperándose de la venta masiva.

El oro se recuperó de los nuevos mínimos de dos meses en los 1.750$ y registró una ganancia de más del 0.5% en el día antes de terminar con la campana de cierre cerca de 1.770$.

Los precios del crudo subieron desde cerca de los mínimos del día de 72.84$ en un gran sorteo de los inventarios estadounidenses antes de la muy esperada reunión de la OPEP + con un spot cercano a los 73.51$ al cierre de Wall Street.

Para el día siguiente, los operadores estarán atentos a la balanza comercial australiana y al PMI manufacturero de Caixin chino en la mitad de la sesión asiática antes de una serie de datos de la eurozona al final del día.

En la sesión de Europea, los banqueros centrales hablarán antes de una ronda final de datos de EE.UU. en la sesión de EE.UU.,incluido el PMI manufacturero y las reclamaciones de desempleo, antes de las muy anticipadas nóminas no agrícolas de EE.UU. del viernes.

  • NZD/USD is under pressure again as the US dollar soars to fresh highs. 
  • All eyes will now be with the NFP event on Friday while otherwise, bets are on a recovery in NZD.

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6984 and is a touch lower on the day after having its wings clipped again on US dollar strength. The bird slid from a high of 0.7706 to a low of 0.6965 while the greenback shot to a fresh cycle high as measured by the DXY of 92.448. 

”The Kiwi is a touch lower yet again this morning after a fairly subdued session that saw the USD DXY strengthen following the stronger than expected ADP employment print, which is a positive indicator of US payroll data due Friday night (NZT),” analysts at ANZ Bank said. 

Private payrolls increased by 692,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed.

Additionally, data for May was revised lower to show 886,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 978,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls would increase by 600,000 jobs.

”Month and quarter-end rebalancing did provide some volatility, but NZD and AUD were more stable than the majors, all of which has seen the NZD outperformance on those crosses,” the analysts explained. 

”Price action remains unusual (at least in our view), with the NZD unable to capitalise on falling US bond yields, continually lifting expectations for earlier OCR hikes here, and the ongoing rally in commodity prices. We think that’s a favourable backdrop, biasing the NZD higher, but it has been an odd sort of a week and patience may be required,” the analysts added.

 

What you need to know on Wednesday, July 1:

The US dollar index appreciated to the highest level yet since it took off from 90.441 level following the Federal Reserve’s surprise hawkish hold on 16 June. 

Printing a high of 92.448, DXY traded at its best level since 8 April earlier this year.

A mix of strong US data, delta covid flows, hawkish Fed speakers and anticipation of a healthy Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday helped the greenback maintain its strong narrative in financial markets on Wednesday. Fed’s Robert Kaplan reaffirmed his hawkish stance and said, ”Id want to taper sooner than the end of the year.” That, along with Private Payrolls increasingly solidly in June, put the US dollar on track for its best month in 4 1/2 years.  

The EUR/USD pair ex6tended its losses sub-1.1900 to test the June lows in the 1.1840 price zone. Below such a level, the bearish case will likely gain momentum. On the other hand, a bullish technical pattern has emerged which raises prospects of a significant correction to the upside for the forthcoming days, throwing the bullish US dollar narrative into question for the immediate future, at least from a technical perspective; More on that here:  The strong US dollar narrative strives on towards US NFP

GBP/USD settled around 1.3830 and remains undermined by Brexit jitters related to the Northern Ireland Protocol, aka, the sausage row. The current grace period waiving checks on British-made sausages and other chilled meats moving to Northern Ireland was due to end on Wednesday. Sterling is also facing uncertainty over the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in the UK. Earlier this month forced the government to delay full reopening.

AUD/USD fell further to break the 0.7500 level to score a fresh low of 0.7491, while USD/CAD continued to test bearish commitments through 1.2400 again in the New York session to print a high of 1.2421, recovering from the London sell-off. 

Gold recovered from the fresh two-month lows in the $1,750s and tallied a gain of over 0.5% on the day, printing a high of 41,774.45 before ending by the closing bell near $1,770.

Crude oil prices rose from near the day’s lows of $72.84 on a big draw on US inventories ahead of the highly anticipated OPEC+ meeting with spot near to $73.51 by the close of play on Wall Street.  

For the day ahead, traders will be watching the Aussie Trade Balance and Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI in the mid-Asian session ahead of a slew of EZ data late in the day. 

In the Europen session, central bankers will be speaking before a final round of US data in the US session, including Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Claims, ahead of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. 

What you need to know on Wednesday, July 1:

The US dollar index appreciated to the highest level yet since it took off from 90.441 level following the Federal Reserve’s surprise hawkish hold on 16 June. 

Printing a high of 92.448, DXY traded at its best level since 8 April earlier this year.

A mix of strong US data, delta covid flows, hawkish Fed speakers and anticipation of a healthy Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday helped the greenback maintain its strong narrative in financial markets on Wednesday. Fed’s Robert Kaplan reaffirmed his hawkish stance and said, ”Id want to taper sooner than the end of the year.” That, along with Private Payrolls increasingly solidly in June, put the US dollar on track for its best month in 4 1/2 years.  

The EUR/USD pair ex6tended its losses sub-1.1900 to test the June lows in the 1.1840 price zone. Below such a level, the bearish case will likely gain momentum. On the other hand, a bullish technical pattern has emerged which raises prospects of a significant correction to the upside for the forthcoming days, throwing the bullish US dollar narrative into question for the immediate future, at least from a technical perspective; More on that here:  The strong US dollar narrative strives on towards US NFP

GBP/USD settled around 1.3830 and remains undermined by Brexit jitters related to the Northern Ireland Protocol, aka, the sausage row. The current grace period waiving checks on British-made sausages and other chilled meats moving to Northern Ireland was due to end on Wednesday. Sterling is also facing uncertainty over the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in the UK. Earlier this month forced the government to delay full reopening.

AUD/USD fell further to break the 0.7500 level to score a fresh low of 0.7491, while USD/CAD continued to test bearish commitments through 1.2400 again in the New York session to print a high of 1.2421, recovering from the London sell-off. 

Gold recovered from the fresh two-month lows in the $1,750s and tallied a gain of over 0.5% on the day, printing a high of 41,774.45 before ending by the closing bell near $1,770.

Crude oil prices rose from near the day’s lows of $72.84 on a big draw on US inventories ahead of the highly anticipated OPEC+ meeting with spot near to $73.51 by the close of play on Wall Street.  

For the day ahead, traders will be watching the Aussie Trade Balance and Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI in the mid-Asian session ahead of a slew of EZ data late in the day. 

In the Europen session, central bankers will be speaking before a final round of US data in the US session, including Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Claims, ahead of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. 

  • El AUD/USD lleva tomando el control y rompiendo el soporte mensual crítico.
  • Un cierre mensual por debajo de los mínimos mensuales anteriores será un desarrollo significativo.

Según el análisis anterior, Análisis de precios AUD/USD: los bajistas deben contemplar el soporte mensual, el precio inicialmente respetaba el área de demanda mensual antes de que los bajistas recuperaran el control en una resistencia crítica de 4 horas.

Análisis previo, gráfico diario

El área de soporte mensual se ha agotado y el precio, con tres horas para el final, está en camino de cerrar por debajo del mínimo mensual anterior de 0.7531:

Gráficos diarios y mensuales en vivo

Desde una perspectiva diaria, si bien hay perspectivas de una continuación a la baja, se esperaría que se volviera a probar la resistencia mensual:

Podría haber oportunidades de anhelo en el futuro, pero los bajistas estarán al acecho en la resistencia mensual para una oportunidad para una operación a la baja a más largo plazo para presionar los compromisos alcistas en el área de 0.73.
 

  • US dollar has climbed to print a fresh cycle high.
  • All eyes will be on the US NFP on Friday.
  • Technically, there is the case for an interim correction in the DXY and EUR/USD. 

The dollar gained on Wednesday and made a fresh cycle high in the New York session. 

At the time of writing, DXY, an index that measures a basket of currencies vs the greenback, is trading 0.4% higher on the day at the highs of 92.445 after a progressive bid from 92.001 the low. 

The US dollar is on the verge of its biggest monthly rise since November 2016 with just a couple of hours to go until the close for June. 

A surprisingly hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve’s rates outlook was the major catalyst. Recent concerns at the start of this week over the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant have boosted the currency even higher. 

The US dollar has gained over 2.5% by the same measure as markets reassess the US outlook.

Investors are anticipating that data flows will continue to show a strong economy as we move into H2 which stands in contrast to many other parts of the world.

 Lagging vaccine roll-outs, especially in nations where the delta variant is quickly spreading, has forced some to go back into lockdown and the greenback is picking up a haven bid as a consequence. 

Meanwhile, all eyes are on the jobs report Friday following today’s ADP report that increased solidly in June. 

Private payrolls increased by 692,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed.

Additionally, data for May was revised lower to show 886,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 978,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls would increase by 600,000 jobs.

Wage inflation in focus

Concerning this week’s NFP, whereby payrolls probably surged again in June, with the pace up from the +559k in May, (markets expecting 700k+, Unemployment Rate 5.6%), analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman argued that the softer jobs numbers seen in recent months are due more to supply than demand.

”In which case, wages will have to adjust higher. Perhaps this is behind the expected jump in average hourly earnings to 3.6% YoY vs. 2.0% in May. Wage inflation is always the key to broad-based price inflation and such acceleration would get the market’s attention.”

DXY technical analysis

Meanwhile, there are prospects of a correction in both the euro and the US dollar. 

As per the prior analysis, EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears need to consider the daily M-formation, the 24th June lows at 1.1917 could be targetted by the bulls in a significant upside correction. 

The price has moved in on the 18 and 21 June lows in the 1.8140s. 

While there is a high probability that the price will continue to fall considering the bearish trend, the M-formation is a chart pattern that has a high completion rate.

There is an equal probability that we will see a correction from the current lows and support structure to test the prior support within the formation as follows. 1.1920’s come as the upside target:

Considering the 57.6% weighting of the DXY to the euro, it should be no surprise that we see the same chart formation there in reverse (W-formation). 91.80s comes as the downside target:

In both cases, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracements and the confluence of prior highs and lows come as the first anticipated target prior to the 61.8% Fibonaccis and neckline of the formations. 

En una entrevista con Bloomberg TV el miércoles, el presidente de la Fed de Dallas, Robert Kaplan, señaló que están viendo una ampliación de las presiones sobre los precios, según Reuters.

Declaraciones destacadas

“Todavía hay muchas limitaciones de oferta en el mercado laboral”.

“Es probable que persistan los desequilibrios entre la oferta y la demanda”.

“No espero cifras explosivas en los titulares del informe de empleo”.

“Preferiría reducir antes de fin de año”.

“Una reducción más temprana significará más flexibilidad en el futuro”.

“El ajuste de las compras de activos de la Fed será mucho mejor esta vez que la última vez”.

“La gente está al tanto de que se producirán ajustes, la única pregunta es cuándo”.

“Vamos a lograr un progreso sustancial adicional antes de lo esperado”.

“Las compras de activos no son efectivas para abordar los problemas de suministro”.

“Hemos avanzado en el tema de la inflación, necesitamos más avances en el frente laboral”.

“Estamos listos para reducir antes debido a preguntas sobre eficacia y efectos secundarios”.

Reacción del mercado

El índice del dólar estadounidense conserva su impulso alcista después de estos comentarios y se vio por última vez operando en su nivel más alto desde principios de abril en 92.40, subiendo un 0.35 en el día.

  • AUD/USD bears taking control and breaking critical monthly support.
  • A monthly close below the monthly prior lows will be a significant development. 

As per the prior analysis,  AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears need to contemplate monthly support, the price was initially respecting the monthly demand area before bears took back control at critical 4-hour resistance. 

Prior analysis, daily chart

The monthly support area has well and truly given out and the price, with three hours to go, is on track to close below the prior monthly low of 0.7531:

Live monthly & daily charts

From a daily perspective, while there are prospects of a continuation to the downside, the monthly resistance would be expected to be retested:

There could be longing opportunities ahead, but bears will be lurking at monthly resistance for a shorting opportunity for a longer-term trade to the downside to pressure bullish commitments on the 0.73 area. 

  • XAU/USD is staging a strong rebound on Thursday.
  • Falling US Treasury bond yields seems to be supporting gold.
  • US Dollar Index renews multi-month highs above 92.40.

After falling to its lowest level since mid-April at $1,750 on Tuesday, gold managed to stage a decisive recovery on Wednesday and was last seen gaining 0.65% on a daily basis at $1,772.

Despite the broad-based USD strength, the XAU/USD pair didn’t have a difficult time pushing higher during the American trading hours with the sharp decline witnessed in the US Treasury bond yields helping gold attract investors. Currently, the benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield is losing nearly 2% on the day at 1.446%.

Additionally, quarter-end flows and rebalancing of large positions may have triggered profit-taking and helped XAU/USD retrace a portion of this week’s decline.

Meanwhile, the monthly data published by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute showed on Wednesday that employment in the US private sector increased by 692,000 in June. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 600,000 and provided a boost to the greenback ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the USD’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, was last seen trading at its highest level in more than two months at 92.41.

In a recently published analysis, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, said gold remains offered below $1,790 and looks to retreat to the key support located at $1,735. 

“While above there we will retain our longer-term upside bias,” Jones added. “Longer-term, we still target the $1959/65 November 2020 high and the 2021 high. These guard the $1989/78.6% retracement and the $2072 2020 peak.”

Gold technical outlook

With Wednesday’s rebound, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart rose modestly to 35, suggesting that the pair corrected its oversold conditions but doesn’t yet have enough bullish momentum for consistent recovery.

On the upside $1,785 (upper limit of last week’s consolidation channel) aligns as an interim resistance ahead of $1,790 (100-day SMA) and $1,800 (psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement of April-June uptrend).

The initial support is located at $1,750 (June 29 low) ahead of $1,730 (static level).

Additional levels to watch for

 

  • El dólar estadounidense sigue subiendo durante la sesión estadounidense, sin verse afectado por la bajada de los rendimientos.
  • La siguiente área de soporte se encuentra en 1.1845/50.

El par EUR/USD cayó aún más y alcanzó los 1.1844, el nivel intradiario más bajo desde principios de abril. El par volvió a subir rápidamente por encima de 1.1850; sin embargo, el euro sigue bajo presión, luchando por mantenerse por encima del soporte de 1.1845/50. El dólar estadounidense se fortaleció en todos los ámbitos durante la sesión estadounidense en medio de los flujos de fin de mes.

El dólar estadounidense ganó impulso incluso en medio de menores rendimientos estadounidenses y un repunte en los índices bursátiles de Wall Street. El rendimiento a 10 años cayó a su nivel más bajo desde el 21 de junio por debajo del 1.45%, mientras que el Dow Jones ha subido un 0.45% y el Nasdaq sigue en negativo (-0.08%), pero lejos de mínimos.

El informe económico clave del miércoles superó las expectativas: el informe de empleo de ADP mostró un aumento en las nóminas privadas de 692.000 (frente a 600.000). El jueves se publicarán las solicitudes de desempleo y el viernes las cifras de NFP.

Los comentarios de Kaplan de la Fed también ayudaron al dólar durante la sesión estadounidense. Dijo que está listo para reducir antes “debido a preguntas sobre la eficacia y los efectos secundarios”.

Perspectiva EUR/USD

El par está empujando hacia el soporte de 1.1845/50, y una consolidación por debajo debería dejar al euro vulnerable a más pérdidas. El siguiente soporte se sitúa en 1.1830/35 seguido de 1.1795. Si el euro logra mantenerse por encima de 1.1845, debería mantener limitadas las pérdidas. Una recuperación por encima de 1.1900/1.1910 aliviaría la presión bajista.

Niveles técnicos