Lo que necesita saber el viernes 9 de abril:

El dólar cayó frente a todos sus principales rivales, excepto la libra. Los comentarios moderados del Presidente de la Reserva Federal, Powell, los rendimientos moderados de los bonos del gobierno y los pobres datos relacionados con el empleo en Estados Unidos pesaron sobre la moneda estadounidense.

El par GBP/USD se mantuvo en el extremo inferior de su rango semanal, extendiendo su deslizamiento en unos pocos pips hasta 1.3718 y estableciéndose en el área de 1.3740. Las preocupaciones en torno a la vacuna AstraZeneca siguen pesando sobre la libra esterlina, ya que la EMA encontró un “vínculo raro” entre la vacuna y los coágulos de sangre. Sin embargo, el Reino Unido ha administrado al menos una dosis de una vacuna contra el coronavirus a aproximadamente el 50% de la población, lo que redujo drásticamente el número de muertes y contagios diarios.

El par EUR/USD se recuperó hasta 1.1927 conservando la mayor parte de sus ganancias al final de la sesión de EE.UU. Robert Holzmann, gobernador del Banco Central de Austria, dijo que el Banco Central Europeo podría comenzar a reducir sus compras de bonos durante el verano, brindando apoyo a la moneda compartida.

Las acciones europeas y estadounidenses registraron ganancias intradía modestas, lo que brinda cierto soporte a las monedas vinculadas a las materias primas. El dólar australiano encontró soporte adicional en el aumento de los precios del oro, ya que el spot avanzó a su nivel más alto desde el 1 de marzo, terminando el día en 1.755,00$ la onza troy.

  • It was a bullish day for US equity markets, with the S&P 500 at one point crossing above the 4100 mark. 
  • Fed Chair Powell spoke on Thursday at an IMF panel and stuck to the usual dovish script, though did signal concerns about rising COvid-19 cases. 

It was a bullish day for US equity markets, with the S&P 500 at one point crossing above the 4100 mark (a record intra-day high) before closing at 4097, up 0.4% on the day. The gains were driven primarily by large-cap tech stocks, with the S&P 500’s largest component Apple gaining 1.9%. Tech stocks have been performing well amid an ongoing pullback in long-term US government borrowing costs (10-year yields dropped another 3bps on Thursday to 1.62%, down 13bps since the start of the month); the FANG+ index gained 1.4% for its ninth consecutive day of gains, helping the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index to a 1.0% gain.

But positivity was also being seen outside of tech; the Dow gained 0.2% and the Russell 2000 0.9%, while the CBOE volatility index dropped to fresh post-pandemic lows under 17.00. The only weak points were energy stocks, which dropped 1.4% despite slightly higher crude oil prices, and real estate, which dropped despite a fall in yields which would typically be associated with a fall in mortgage costs that ought to help the housing sector.

Driving the day

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was on the wires on Thursday, speaking at an IMF panel, and his commentary was as dovish as market participants have come to expect; he noted that the US economic outlook had improved recently, but that rising Covid-19 cases abroad and in the US pose a threat to the near-term economic outlook, which depends heavily on the path of the pandemic. He was pleased by the recent labour market report, but said that a string of further monthly job gains like this would be needed to bring the US economy back in line with the Fed’s goals, which it remains a long way from, meaning highly accommodative monetary policy conditions remain necessary. Powell emphasised one of the key points of Wednesday’s minutes, that is that the Fed wants to see actual progress towards its goals before tightening, rather than tightening based on bullish forecasts. On inflation, he again played down the prospects that the coming increase in inflation will be persistent, though he did remind markets that the Fed does have the tools to deal with inflation that gets too high. Other Fed speakers mostly stuck to the above script. 

In terms of other themes worth nothing, Thursday saw a soft weekly jobless claims report. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 744k, higher than expectations for 680k and up from the previous figure which was revised up 9K to 728K. Meanwhile, Continued Claims also declined less than expected but did see a slight improvement on the prior month. Some desks attributed the disappointing jobless claims data as putting downwards pressure on yields and actually helping stocks. Elsewhere, market participants are also monitoring the geopolitical landscape, with the US reportedly mulling sending warships to the Black Sea to signal to Russia that it is closely monitoring the situation in Eastern Ukraine and there was tough talk from Russian officials about the need to protect its citizens in Eastern Ukraine region. Meanwhile, US officials are attempting to play down expectations for a breakthrough in talks with Iran, though talks are being hailed as a step in the right direction and set to continue in Vienna in the coming days. 

Looking ahead, Producer Price Inflation data for the month of March on Friday will be watch watching, but equity market attention is seemingly already turning to key events next week in the form of March Consumer Price Inflation and Retail Sales, more Fed speak from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Richard Clarida, as well as bank earnings signaling the start of the new earnings season.  

  • Gold meets resistance and there are prospects of a significant correction. 
  • US dollar pressured by falling US Treasury yields. 

Gold prices were elevated again on Thursday as the US dollar dipped to a fresh low on the back of sliding US yields. 

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1,754.55 having popped from a low of $1,733.26 to a high of $1,758.72 on the day.

US Treasury yields were losing ground again due to the fresh dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Also, worse-than-expected initial jobless claims that highlighted the economy’s bumpy recovery from the pandemic threw cold water over the US dollar’s bullish performance of late. 

The data showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits totalled a seasonally adjusted 744,000 for the week ended April 3, compared with 728,000 in the prior week. Continued unemployment claims though fell to 3.73 million for the week of March 27.

Meanwhile, at an International Monetary Fund event on Thursday, Fed’s Powell said a surge in spending as the US economy reopens, along with bottlenecks in supply, will likely push prices higher this year, but would not result in the kind of yearly price increases that would constitute inflation.

The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to a fresh low of 1.6280% and was ending on Wall Street down some 2.64%. 

Fed’s Powell’s remarks followed the cautious Federal Open Market Committee minutes on the March policy meeting released on Wednesday whereby various participants noted that changes in the path of policy should be based primarily on observed outcomes rather than forecasts. 

Gold technical analysis

In the above daily chart, the price is now testing a critical resistance area and has developed a new support structure. 

A close above the support today opens the prospects of a higher high, but the price could well find its self consolidating in coming sessions and trapped between resistance and support. 

From a 4-hour perspective, there are prospects of a 50% mean reversion to prior resistance as follows:

 

  • USD/JPY dropped sharply from Asia Pacific levels around 109.75 to lows around 109.00 before recovering to closer to 109.25.
  • A tightening US/Japan rate spread has put downwards pressure on the pair.

USD/JPY dropped sharply on Thursday, sliding from Asia Pacific levels around 109.75, to as low as the 109.00 mark, after slipping below the 21-day moving average at just under 109.50. The pair is currently trading closer to 109.25 as US trade draws to a close, down about 0.5% or just over 50 pips on the day.

Now that USD/JPY has slipped below a key area of support in the 109.30s, short-term bears will be targeting a move towards the mid-March lows in the 108.30s. This would require the pair to break below support in the form of the psychologically important 109.00 level first, something which it has not been able to do as of yet.

Driving the day

US government bond yields have been on the back foot on Thursday, with the 10-year yield down just over 2bps to trade around 1.63%. That marks a more than 10bps drop since the start of the month, a move which has put downwards pressure on the US/Japan rate differential, which is bearish for USD/JPY. But USD has not just been struggling against the yen. In fact, the currency sits at the bottom of Thursday’s G10 performance table.

Most recently, USD saw selling pressure in wake of remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell; speaking at an IMF panel, Powell said that the outlook for the US economy has brightened as a result of fiscal support and vaccines. However, Powell noted that the slower pace of global vaccinations and the recent rise in Covid-19 infections in the US are both risks to the recent progress that has been made, and that he expects a rise in Covid-19 cases to slow the economic recovery. Powell noted that while fiscal and monetary support have helped the US economy avoid a lot of scarring, the economy continues to need support, before adding that millions of people will have a hard time getting back into the workforce. In reference to the recent strong jobs report, Powell said the Fed would want to see a string of months like the March jobs report to see progress towards its goals, before pointing out that the unemployment rate in the bottom quartile of the economy is still 20%.

In sum then, Powell’s remarks on the economy were dovish, hence the weakness in USD; he acknowledged but seemed to play down recent strong data and the recent improvement in the economy’s economic outlook, while coming across as eager to emphasise that the economy remains a long way from the Fed’s goals (as expected). Moving on to Powell’s remarks on inflation; he noted that a one-time increase in inflation is different from a persistent increase in inflation, which he defined as inflation going up “year after year after year”. In that vein, Powell reiterated that the upwards price pressures later this year are most likely to be temporary, in other words, saying that the Fed is not going to be worried by the pickup in inflation and will stick to its guns with regards to easy monetary conditions. These comments, whilst nothing new, also seem to have contributed to the dovish tone of Powell’s remarks.

Looking ahead, the main event for US dollar traders to keep an eye on for the rest of the week is Friday’s Producer Price Inflation report for the month of March. A higher-than-expected inflation number could provide some upside impetus to inflation-sensitive bond yields, which could put some upwards pressure on USD/JPY. However, it does feel as though USD is in the mood to head lower and Friday’s data might well go under the radar.

Estados Unidos tiene mucha capacidad de endeudamiento y el gasto del gobierno en respuesta a la crisis del coronavirus ha sido prudente, dijo el jueves el presidente de la Reserva Federal de Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, según informó Reuters.

Declaraciones destacadas 

“Ambas partes reconocen el valor de una Fed independiente”.

“No creo que la capacidad de endeudamiento sea ilimitada; eventualmente, aparecerá en la inflación”.

“Si una mayor deuda del gobierno resultara en inflación, la Fed tendría que pisar el freno, pero no veo eso en el futuro inmediato”.

“En tiempos de crisis nacional, es mejor pecar de generosos en la ayuda fiscal”.

Reacción del mercado

Estos comentarios fueron ignorados en gran medida por los participantes del mercado y se vio por última vez que el índice del dólar estadounidense perdíó un 0.38% en el día a 92.07.

El presidente de la Reserva Federal de Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, reiteró el jueves que la Fed no aumentará las tasas de manera preventiva, según informó Reuters.

Declaraciones adicionales 

“La tasa de desempleo general subestima la holgura; la tasa de desempleo real es del 9.1%”.

“Necesitamos vacunar a la mayor cantidad de personas posible para prevenir la cuarta ola, mantener la recuperación en el camino correcto”.

“Este año veremos un repunte de la inflación, pero será temporal”.

“No me sorprendería ver una inflación del 2.5%, tal vez más”.

“Estamos bastante seguros de que podemos impulsar la inflación en el corto plazo, pero mantenemos ancladas las expectativas a largo plazo”.

“El mayor riesgo para la recuperación son las variantes”.

“El aumento de la meta de inflación podría socavar la confianza del público en la Fed”.

“En algún momento, cuando la pandemia esté detrás de nosotros, la Fed reducirá su gran balance, pero será más grande que en el pasado”.

  • El EUR/USD está nuevamente por encima de su DMA de 200 el nivel de 1.1900 luego de los comentarios moderados del presidente de la Fed, Powell
  • Powell señaló la lentitud de las vacunas mundiales y el aumento de casos en los EE.UU. como riesgos para las perspectivas a corto plazo.

El EUR/USD cotiza actualmente cerca de los máximos del día alrededor del nivel de 1.1900, el par logró recuperar agresivamente la gran cifra y saltó al norte de su promedio móvil de 200 días en 1.1883 en la operación reciente. Con el par ahora recuperado de manera convincente 1.1900, los alcistas a mediano plazo estarán atentos a un movimiento gradual hacia la DMA de 50 en 1.1974 y el doble techo de mediados de marzo en 1.1990 justo por encima de él. En el día, el EUR/USD cotiza con ganancias de poco menos de 60 pips o alrededor del 0.5%.

Desempeño del día 

El euro se ha beneficiado de la debilidad generalizada del USD el jueves y se encuentra en algún lugar cerca de la mitad de la tabla de rendimiento del G10 para el día. Eso implica que el principal impulsor del EUR/USD ha sido del lado del dólar de la ecuación, no del lado del euro. De hecho, no ha habido mucho que actualizar con respecto a la zona euro, aparte del discurso del BCE y la publicación de las actas de la reunión del BCE de marzo; Con respecto a esto último, como se esperaba, el tono de las Minutas fue muy moderado, y los miembros del BCE coincidieron en que es importante brindar garantías de que el consejo de gobierno mantendrá condiciones de política monetaria altamente acomodaticias durante el tiempo que sea necesario y no ve riesgo de sobrecalentamiento. En cuanto al discurso del BCE, la presidenta del BCE, Christine Lagarde, señaló que la pandemia y las medidas de contención relacionadas continuarán teniendo un impacto negativo en la actividad económica en la zona euro a corto plazo, pero esa actividad debería recuperarse más adelante en el año. El economista jefe del BCE, Philip Lane, reiteró que se deben mantener condiciones financieras favorables. Klass Knot, del BCE, señaló que espera que el ritmo de compra de activos bajo el PEPP pueda reducirse para junio.

De cara al futuro, el evento principal al que los operadores del dólar estadounidense deben estar atentos durante el resto de la semana es el informe de inflación de precios al productor del viernes para el mes de marzo. Mientras tanto, los operadores del euro estarán atentos a los comentarios del vicepresidente del BCE, Luis de Guindos, a las 08:30BST del viernes. De lo contrario, es probable que el EUR/USD continúe operando en función de los diferenciales de rendimiento de los bonos y el estado de la pandemia en ambos lados del Atlántico.

Niveles técnicos 

                

What you need to know on Friday, April 9:

 The greenback fell against all of its major rivals but the pound. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve chief Powell, subdued government bond yields and poor US employment-related data weighed on the American currency.

The GBP/USD pair held at the lower end of its weekly range, extending its slide by a few pips to 1.3718 and settling in the 1.3740 area. Concerns surrounding the AstraZeneca vaccine keep weighing on sterling, as the EMA found a “rare link” between the jab and blood clots. Nevertheless, the UK  has given at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine to roughly 50% of the population, which brought sharply down the number of daily deaths and contagions.

The EUR/USD pair rallied up to 1.1927 retaining most of its gains by the end of the US session. Robert Holzmann, Austrian Central Bank Governor, said that the European Central Bank might be able to start reducing its bond purchases during the summer, providing support to the shared currency.

European and American shares posted modest intraday gains, providing some support to commodity-linked currencies. The Australian dollar found additional support in rising gold prices as spot advanced to its highest since March 1, ending the day around $ 1,755.00 a troy ounce.

XRP price headwinds are quickly being replaced by strong tailwinds

  • GBP/USD is now pressured by bears at critical support.
  • DXY also meets a key support level on the daily chart. 

At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3736 between a range of 1.3718 and 1.3782 and around flat on the day. 

It is really more of a US dollar story than anything else on Thursday, with the markets soaking up the Federal Reserve’s commitment for lower for longer rates. 

In yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes, various participants noted that changes in the path of policy should be based primarily on observed outcomes rather than forecasts. 

This has given rise to a topping in US yields with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down by some 2.5% at the time of writing, off its lows of the day of 1.6280%.

Meanwhile, the US dollar traded near its lowest in more than two weeks versus major peers, tracking Treasury yields lower. 

The dollar index DXY which measures the US currency against a basket of six currencies extended its losses to a low of 91.999 after dipping as low as 92.134 on Wednesday for the first time since March 23.

Technical analysis, GBP/USD & DXY

Technically, the DXY is now at critical support which has enabled cable to stabilize a bit on broad dollar weakness.  

”Still, the break below $1.3765 sets up a test of the March 25 low near $1.3670,” analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman argued.

”While cable remains hostage to broad movements in the dollar, it traded today at a new low for this move near $1.3720 and is on track to test the March low near $1.3670 and then the February low near $1.3565.”

GBP/USD daily chart