• Silver began February with an upside gap to the highest since September 2020.
  • Risks remain heavy amid fears of further restrictions on equity trading, EU-UK tussle.
  • Vaccine optimism, hopes of US stimulus probe silver buyers.
  • PMIs, risk news keep the driver’s seat, US dollar moves shouldn’t be missed.

Silver bulls attack $29.00, currently up 6.60% near $28.97, during the early Asian trading on Monday. The white metal marked the upside gap from $26.98 to $28.88 at the start of February’s trading.

Risks remain as the key…

With the latest retail traders’ frenzy, portrayed by wild moves in Gamestop and the likes, global policymakers eye further restrictions, which in turn weigh on market risks off-late. In a recent move, US House Majority Leader Chuck Schumer tweeted, “We cannot have a stock market where players are also refs. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Congressional investigations of decisions to restrict access to trade GameStop must happen ASAP.” Even so, chatters that Robinhood narrows trading restrictions to eight companies from 50 suggest market players always find room to trade.

Elsewhere, the recent easing in the coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers in the developed world combat with a fresh five-day lockdown in Australia’s Perth, following a fresh case in hotel staff. On the same line, the UK’s record vaccinations battle the Brussels-London jitters over the vaccines.

It should be noted that the latest weakening of China’s official PMIs and a light calendar in Asia also heavy the risks. That said, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.67% to 3,671 by press time.

Moving on, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for January, expected 52.7 versus 53.0 prior, will decorate the calendar. Though, the risk news concerning further equity restrictions and vaccine updates can keep the driver’s seat.

Technical analysis

Unless declining back below September’s high near $28.90, silver buyers can keep the August 2020 peak surrounding $29.85 on the radar.

 

  • Silver began February with an upside gap to the highest since September 2020.
  • Risks remain heavy amid fears of further restrictions on equity trading, EU-UK tussle.
  • Vaccine optimism, hopes of US stimulus probe silver buyers.
  • PMIs, risk news keep the driver’s seat, US dollar moves shouldn’t be missed.

Silver bulls attack $29.00, currently up 6.60% near $28.97, during the early Asian trading on Monday. The white metal marked the upside gap from $26.98 to $28.88 at the start of February’s trading.

Risks remain as the key…

With the latest retail traders’ frenzy, portrayed by wild moves in Gamestop and the likes, global policymakers eye further restrictions, which in turn weigh on market risks off-late. In a recent move, US House Majority Leader Chuck Schumer tweeted, “We cannot have a stock market where players are also refs. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Congressional investigations of decisions to restrict access to trade GameStop must happen ASAP.” Even so, chatters that Robinhood narrows trading restrictions to eight companies from 50 suggest market players always find room to trade.

Elsewhere, the recent easing in the coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers in the developed world combat with a fresh five-day lockdown in Australia’s Perth, following a fresh case in hotel staff. On the same line, the UK’s record vaccinations battle the Brussels-London jitters over the vaccines.

It should be noted that the latest weakening of China’s official PMIs and a light calendar in Asia also heavy the risks. That said, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.67% to 3,671 by press time.

Moving on, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for January, expected 52.7 versus 53.0 prior, will decorate the calendar. Though, the risk news concerning further equity restrictions and vaccine updates can keep the driver’s seat.

Technical analysis

Unless declining back below September’s high near $28.90, silver buyers can keep the August 2020 peak surrounding $29.85 on the radar.

 

It was always going to be a very difficult and monumental task for a global vaccine rollout which has very quickly descended into frustration and a maelstrom of logistical and political challenges. 

For the forex markets, the European Union’s threat to impose a vaccine border between Northern Ireland and the Republic risks reigniting one of Brexit’s bitterest disputes.

This threat comes during a time where the European commission president Ursula von der Leyen has already faced blame over the relative slowness of the EU’s vaccination programme compared with nations such as the US, UK and Israel.

Meanwhile, on that front, AstraZeneca will deliver 9 million additional doses in the first quarter (40 million in total) compared to last week’s offer & will start deliveries one week earlier than scheduled, Ursula von der Leyen announced today on Twitter.

”The company will also expand its manufacturing capacity in Europe.”

While there is news that Britain is confident its COVID-19 vaccination programme is secure after receiving guarantees from the European Union, the EU’s initial threat to stop vaccines crossing freely from the EU to Northern Ireland will impact sentiment on the pound.

The EU has signalled on Friday that it would trigger the clause to stop Northern Ireland becoming a back door for vaccines to enter the UK from the bloc, but ditched the decision after a diplomatic outcry from Dublin and London.

Also, the toxic political row over Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit status has been re-opened and the WHO has also criticised the EU’s announcement of export controls.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director, has said “vaccine nationalism” would only serve to draw out the Covid crisis.

Dr Mariângela Simão, WHO assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products, said it was a “very worrying trend”.

In the US, the latest update comes in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention which has just issued an order requiring travellers in the United States to wear masks as part of a new initiative aimed at stemming outbreaks of the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, president Joe Biden has pledged to boost the rollout of Covid vaccines in the US and has criticised the speed of the operation under the previous administration.

It’s been “a dismal failure thus far,” the president said after taking office.

He’s committed to overseeing 100 million vaccine doses administered in his first 100 days.

Biden has more recently said, “I think we may be able to get that to 1.5 million a day, rather than one million a day.”

In order to achieve this, Biden has appointed a new Covid-19 response team to plan and orchestrate these measures.

He wants to increase state funding, calling for a $25 billion package for vaccination manufacturing and distribution.

Biden is also planning to open 100 federally funded vaccination sites.

  • GBP/USD wavers around 1.3700 amid mixed covid vaccine news, hints of UK’s recovery plan

 

It was always going to be a very difficult and monumental task for a global vaccine rollout which has very quickly descended into frustration and a maelstrom of logistical and political challenges. 

For the forex markets, the European Union’s threat to impose a vaccine border between Northern Ireland and the Republic risks reigniting one of Brexit’s bitterest disputes.

This threat comes during a time where the European commission president Ursula von der Leyen has already faced blame over the relative slowness of the EU’s vaccination programme compared with nations such as the US, UK and Israel.

Meanwhile, on that front, AstraZeneca will deliver 9 million additional doses in the first quarter (40 million in total) compared to last week’s offer & will start deliveries one week earlier than scheduled, Ursula von der Leyen announced today on Twitter.

”The company will also expand its manufacturing capacity in Europe.”

While there is news that Britain is confident its COVID-19 vaccination programme is secure after receiving guarantees from the European Union, the EU’s initial threat to stop vaccines crossing freely from the EU to Northern Ireland will impact sentiment on the pound.

The EU has signalled on Friday that it would trigger the clause to stop Northern Ireland becoming a back door for vaccines to enter the UK from the bloc, but ditched the decision after a diplomatic outcry from Dublin and London.

Also, the toxic political row over Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit status has been re-opened and the WHO has also criticised the EU’s announcement of export controls.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director, has said “vaccine nationalism” would only serve to draw out the Covid crisis.

Dr Mariângela Simão, WHO assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products, said it was a “very worrying trend”.

In the US, the latest update comes in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention which has just issued an order requiring travellers in the United States to wear masks as part of a new initiative aimed at stemming outbreaks of the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, president Joe Biden has pledged to boost the rollout of Covid vaccines in the US and has criticised the speed of the operation under the previous administration.

It’s been “a dismal failure thus far,” the president said after taking office.

He’s committed to overseeing 100 million vaccine doses administered in his first 100 days.

Biden has more recently said, “I think we may be able to get that to 1.5 million a day, rather than one million a day.”

In order to achieve this, Biden has appointed a new Covid-19 response team to plan and orchestrate these measures.

He wants to increase state funding, calling for a $25 billion package for vaccination manufacturing and distribution.

Biden is also planning to open 100 federally funded vaccination sites.

  • GBP/USD wavers around 1.3700 amid mixed covid vaccine news, hints of UK’s recovery plan

 

  • NZD/USD remains depressed after the week-start gap-down.
  • Ascending trend lines from December 21 and January 18 probe sellers.
  • Friday’s Doji, monthly resistance line challenges the upside momentum beyond 21-day SMA.

NZD/USD struggles to fill the week-start gap below 0.7184 while taking rounds to 0.7170, down 0.22% intraday, during the early Asian trading on Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair steps back from 21-day EMA while also respecting Friday’s Doji candlestick formation suggesting a reversal of Thursday’s corrective pullback.

However, an upward sloping trend line from December 21, followed by a two-week-long support line, respectively around 0.7145 and 0.7105, not to forget the 0.7100 threshold, currently tests the NZD/USD sellers.

While risk aversion favors the NZD/USD bears, any further weakness past-0.7100 will not hesitate to challenge the late December low near the 0.7000 psychological magnet.

On the upside, a clear break above 21-day EMA, at 0.7175 now, needs to cross Friday’s high and a downward sloping resistance line from January 06, currently around 0.7225, to convince NZD/USD buyers.

Following that, the 0.7300 round-figure and January’s top of 0.7316 will be in the spotlight.

To sum up, NZD/USD traders may witness short-term downside but the broad trend remains in favor of the bulls.

NZD/USD daily chart

Trend: Pullback expected

 

  • NZD/USD remains depressed after the week-start gap-down.
  • Ascending trend lines from December 21 and January 18 probe sellers.
  • Friday’s Doji, monthly resistance line challenges the upside momentum beyond 21-day SMA.

NZD/USD struggles to fill the week-start gap below 0.7184 while taking rounds to 0.7170, down 0.22% intraday, during the early Asian trading on Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair steps back from 21-day EMA while also respecting Friday’s Doji candlestick formation suggesting a reversal of Thursday’s corrective pullback.

However, an upward sloping trend line from December 21, followed by a two-week-long support line, respectively around 0.7145 and 0.7105, not to forget the 0.7100 threshold, currently tests the NZD/USD sellers.

While risk aversion favors the NZD/USD bears, any further weakness past-0.7100 will not hesitate to challenge the late December low near the 0.7000 psychological magnet.

On the upside, a clear break above 21-day EMA, at 0.7175 now, needs to cross Friday’s high and a downward sloping resistance line from January 06, currently around 0.7225, to convince NZD/USD buyers.

Following that, the 0.7300 round-figure and January’s top of 0.7316 will be in the spotlight.

To sum up, NZD/USD traders may witness short-term downside but the broad trend remains in favor of the bulls.

NZD/USD daily chart

Trend: Pullback expected

 

In its latest research report, Goldman Sachs (GS) cites the risk of further volatility in the equity markets.

The report cites hedge fund positions as the base for their conclusion while saying, “last week did show the largest hedge fund positioning ‘de-grossing’ since February 2009.”

It was also said that after shorts and longs converted hedge funds exposures still remain close to record and thus there is still an ongoing risk of positioning-change-driven moves.

Read: Brokers’ restrictions on GME and AMC set a dangerous precedent – FXStreet Editorial

While GS suggests more volatility, US House Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s recent tweets signal further hardships for stocks like Gamestop:

FX implications

With the market mood swiftly responding to equities, any more restrictions on equity trading should weigh on risks. The same drag AUD/USD towards 0.7600 during the initial Asian session on Monday.

Read: AUD/USD: Bears eye 0.7600 as risk aversion extends into February

  • AUD/JPY remains depressed after Friday’s pullback from two-week top.
  • Trend reversal suggesting candlestick below key resistance line favors sellers.
  • Bullish MACD, strong RSI keep buyers hopeful of a bounce from the key SMA.

AUD/JPY stays pressured around 80.00 during the early Asian trading session on Monday. The quote rose to the highest since January 15 on Friday before stepping back from a three-week-old resistance line, which in turn flashed a Doji candlestick on the four-hour (4H) chart.

Given the candlestick’s nature and sustained trading below the short-term resistance line, AUD/JPY sellers are currently targeting 200-bar SMA, at 79.55 now. However, bullish MACD and normal RSI conditions may challenge bears around Friday’s low of 79.80.

In a case where the bears dominate past-79.55, Thursday’s bottom near 79.20, the 79.00 threshold and the previous month’s low surrounding 78.85 should return to the chart.

Meanwhile, 80.50 can act as an immediate upside barrier during the quote’s corrective pullback, a break of which will confront the stated resistance line from January 08, currently around 80.65.

Also acting as the key resistance is January’s top of 80.92 and the 81.00 round-figure.

Overall, AUD/JPY is up for a corrective move not only because of the technical details but also due to its risk-barometer status.

Read: AUD/USD: Bears eye 0.7600 as risk aversion extends into February

AUD/JPY four-hour chart

Trend: Further weakness expected