市場報告                     2018-12-10

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週五(12月7日)微幅收漲,日內公布的美國經濟數據皆不如預期,其中非農就業數據更是爆冷下滑,再加上美聯儲預期放緩加息,使得美元指數下挫,錄得日內低點96.51。數據方面,美國11月非農就業人口變動為15.5萬人,遠低於前值25萬人,而美國11月失業率仍維持在3.7%,暗示著美國部分經濟活動有所放緩,可能會加劇人們對美國經濟健康狀況的擔憂,並降低美聯儲明年加息的可能性。美國12月密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值為97.5,與前值相同,因消費者表示,有關未來就業前景的負面消息增多,最終美元指數報收於96.71。

現貨黃金週五亞市早盤開於1237.60美元/金衡盎司後金價短暫下挫,錄得日內低點1236.90美元/金衡盎司後轉漲,金價小幅走高。歐市金價延續漲勢,但多空有所交鋒,波幅增大。美市多頭加大上攻力度,金價震盪走高,不斷刷新前高,錄得日內高點1249.80美元/金衡盎司後回落,終收於1248.30美元/金衡盎司的高位。

國際原油週五收漲1.07美元,或2.07%,報52.72美元/桶。石油輸出國組織(OPEC)最終達成減產協議,雖然與非OPEC產油國的聯合減產規模為120萬桶/日,較市場預期低了10萬桶/日,但這已足以改變當前的悲觀情緒,同時美元承壓回落也為油價提供支撐。

美國股市週五最新非農就業報告不如預期、美中貿易緊張局勢缺乏具體進展,美股賣壓出籠,美股三大指數全面重挫,道瓊抹去今年漲幅,單週狂瀉逾1000點,與S&P500與那斯達克指數創3月以來最大單週跌幅。道瓊工業指數收跌558.72點,或2.24%,報24,388.95點;標普500指數收跌62.87點,或2.33%,報2,633.08點;納斯達克指數收跌219.01點,或3.05%,報6,969.25點。

個股方面,AMD(AMD)狂瀉8.64%;Nvidia(NVDA)股價跳水6.75%;Intel(INTC)下跌4.40%;美光(MU)重挫6.26%;IBM(IBM)走低3.66%;美國銀行(BAC)下跌3.23%;高盛(GS)下跌2.40%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌 1.61%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌1.81%。

日本股市週五因美國道瓊指數6日雖一度狂瀉近800點,不過之後跌幅急縮、僅收跌約80點,遏止投資人信心進一步惡化,加上日經225指數過去3個交易日累計大跌約1,000點,吸引投資人進場撿便宜,也提振日經指數7日止跌走揚,終場漲0.82%或177.06點,收21,678.68點。

個股方面,日本政府傳出將制定情報通訊機器採購手續相關的新指針,將禁用華為、中興通訊的產品。華為、中興通訊產品若被禁用、恐衝擊日本電子零件廠需求,拖累TDK下挫1.21%、村田製作所跌0.57%、Alps下跌0.83%。中小尺寸面板廠夏普暴跌5.16%,次世代通訊規格「5G」等領域和華為相競爭的NEC、富士通股價則上漲。NEC勁揚1.71%、富士通大漲3.12%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,一度探高至112.914一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗112.300一線。上行方面,價格阻力依舊考驗113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續收漲,站上1.14000一線上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.13500一線。上行方面,價格阻力位進一步指向前高1.14600一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜回落收跌,承壓於1.28000一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格支撐位下看1.26800一線。上行方面,價格阻力位指向1.28100一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至1249一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1254一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1232一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜震蕩收漲,最高探至54.20一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價考驗52一線支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位依舊看向53.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜回落收跌,最低探至24295一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗25100一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24000關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,最低探至21245一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21800一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。

 

07 12 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 07, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar weakened against major peers yesterday as U.S Treasury yields tumbled

·      Market sentiment was dampened by disappointing ADP payrolls data and higher jobless claims

·      Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast

·      The Australian Dollar slipped for a third straight day on fears of renewed US-China trade tensions

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday as the arrest of a Huawei executive spooked investors and disappointing jobs data dampened sentiment. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.46% to 96.56. Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer at the Chinese smartphone company Huawei was arrested in Canada on an extradition request by the U.S, which had been investigating whether or not she violated sanctions against Iran. The arrest happened just one week after President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day trade truce. Investors fear it could derail any potential trade talks between the two countries. Japanese Yen gained after the news as the Yen tends to benefit during geopolitical or financial stress as Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation and there is an assumption that Japanese investors will repatriate funds should a crisis materialize. Market sentiment was also dampened by disappointing ADP payrolls data and higher than expected jobless claims. Data showed private employers hired fewer workers than expected in November, pointing to a moderation in the pace of job growth. The U.S trade deficit jumped to a 10-year high in October as soybean exports dropped further and imports of consumer goods rose to a record high, suggesting the Trump administration’s tariff-related measures to shrink the trade gap likely have been ineffective. Sterling was 0.42 percent higher on the day even as worry over how a British Parliament vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal next week remained in focus. The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S counterpart to a nearly 18-month low, as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast and predicted low oil prices would cut growth. Poloz, speaking a day after the central bank kept interest rates on hold, repeated that more tightening would be needed.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (OCT) Medium   1.0% 1.1%
05:00 Japan Leading Index CI (OCT) Medium   104.9 104.3
07:00 German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.1% 0.8%
09:30 U.K BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths (NOV) High     3.0%
10:00 Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (3Q) Medium   0.3% 0.4%
10:00 Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (3Q) Medium   1.7% 1.7%
13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (NOV) High   5.8% 5.8%
13:30 Canada Net Change in Employment (NOV) High   10.0k 11.2k
13:30 U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls (NOV) High   198k 250k
13:30 U.S Change in Private Payrolls (NOV) Medium   200k 246k
13:30 U.S Unemployment Rate (NOV) High   3.7% 3.7%
13:30 U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (NOV) Medium   3.1% 3.1%
15:00 U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (DEC) High   97 97.5
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (DEC 7) Medium     1076
20:00 U.S Consumer Credit (OCT) Medium   $15.000b $10.923b

Euro

The single currency gained yesterday against the U.S Dollar as the European Commission has adopted a recommendation to promote the wider use of the euro in international energy agreements and transactions. The aim is to strengthen the role of the single currency on the international financial system. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1319 and a high of 1.1411 before closing the day around 1.1376 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair weakened yesterday as U.S Treasury yields tumbled and traders scaled back expectations on the number of rate hikes the Federal Reserve would implement amid weakening economic data and heightened market volatility. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit a three-month trough of 2.845 percent. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.21 and a high of 113.18 before closing the day around 112.65 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound posted gains in yesterday’s session. There were no major indicators in the U.K. In the U.S, job employment numbers were soft. ADP nonfarm payrolls plunged to 179 thousand, well off the estimate of 196 thousand. This was the lowest level since May. Unemployment claims edged lower to 231 thousand. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2697 and a high of 1.2808 before closing the day at 1.2780 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell against its U.S counterpart yesterday to a nearly 18-month low, as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast and predicted low oil prices would cut growth. Poloz’s comments were likely to reinforce market expectations that the pace of future rate hikes will ease off.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3352 and a high of 1.3442 before closing the day at 1.3380 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar slipped for a third straight session as fears of renewed US-China trade tensions spooked stock markets, while investors toyed with the idea of possible rate cuts at home. Australian two-year bond yields dived to their lowest in nine months at 1.93 per cent. Yesterday’s helping of domestic data did nothing to alter the mood Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7189 and a high of 0.7272 before closing the day at 0.7221 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.19%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.91%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.13%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 06, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13428 1.14112 1.13196 1.13761 0.0033
USD/JPY 113.183 113.189 112.213 112.655 -0.5200
GBP/USD 1.27316 1.28084 1.26977 1.27802 0.0049
USD/CHF 0.99751 0.99882 0.98927 0.99262 -0.0049
USD/CAD 1.33545 1.34423 1.3352 1.33802 0.0028
EUR/JPY 128.386 128.422 127.649 128.15 -0.2430
GBP/JPY 144.126 144.144 143.225 144.022 -0.0870
CHF/JPY 113.434 113.481 112.872 113.457 0.0350
AUD/JPY 82.24 82.285 80.899 81.492 -0.7490
EUR/GBP 0.89069 0.89259 0.88849 0.88958 -0.0012
EUR/CHF 1.13147 1.13199 1.12786 1.12929 -0.0023
GBP/CHF 1.27011 1.2718 1.26481 1.2689 -0.0013

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1235 1.1277 1.1327 1.1369 1.1418 1.1461 1.1510
USD/JPY 111.21 111.71 112.18 112.69 113.16 113.66 114.13
GBP/USD 1.2605 1.2651 1.2716 1.2762 1.2827 1.2873 1.2937
USD/CHF 0.9788 0.9840 0.9883 0.9936 0.9979 1.0031 1.0074
USD/CAD 1.3250 1.3301 1.3341 1.3392 1.3431 1.3482 1.3521
EUR/JPY 126.95 127.30 127.73 128.07 128.50 128.85 129.27
GBP/JPY 142.53 142.88 143.45 143.80 144.37 144.72 145.29
CHF/JPY 112.45 112.66 113.06 113.27 113.67 113.88 114.28
AUD/JPY 79.45 80.17 80.83 81.56 82.22 82.94 83.60
EUR/GBP 0.8838 0.8861 0.8879 0.8902 0.8920 0.8943 0.8961
EUR/CHF 1.1233 1.1256 1.1274 1.1297 1.1316 1.1338 1.1357
GBP/CHF 1.2582 1.2615 1.2652 1.2685 1.2722 1.2755 1.2792

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-07

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週四下跌,金融市場波動劇烈。日內市場迎來數據波,數據有喜有憂,但整體偏弱。加上美聯儲官員再放“鴿”,使得美元指數短線加速下滑,再次跌回97.00關口下方。數據方面,美國11月ADP就業人數變動為增加17.9萬人,低於前值22.7萬人和預期的20.5萬人,該數據被視作週五將發布的美國非農數據的前瞻指標。美國上週初請失業救濟金人數為23.1萬人,高於預期22.5萬人,勞工部還對前值進行了修正,由23.4萬人修正為23.5萬人,數據較前值僅回落4000人,降幅不及預期。美國10月貿易帳逆差為555億美元,跳升至10年高位,高於預期與前值的逆差540億美元。因大豆出口持續下滑,消費品進口升至紀錄高位,暗示特朗普政府旨在縮小貿易逆差的關稅相關措施可能無效。美國10月製造業訂單月率下跌2.1%,低於前值0.7%和預期-2.0%,表明設備業務支出似乎在走軟,製造業活動放緩。美國11月ISM非製造業採購經理人指數為60.7,高於前值60.3和預期59.3,最終美元指數報收於96.78。

現貨黃金週四收漲,亞市早盤開於1236.80美元/金衡盎司後金價震盪上行,之後再度轉跌。歐市延續跌勢,跌勢加大,錄得日內低點1234.45美元/金衡盎司後反彈轉盤整。美市金價跳漲,盤中現大力拉升,錄得日內高點1244.00美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行之後小幅反彈,終收於1237.60美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週四收跌1.33美元,或2.51%,報51.65美元/桶。因石油輸出國組織(OPEC)減產會談不太順利,俄羅斯成為主要阻礙,這令多頭信心受挫,不過美國原油庫存大幅下降令油價收復部分失地,目前市場靜待明日即將公佈的減產決定。

美國股市週四因華為CFO孟晚舟遭逮捕,引發中美貿易緊張局勢升溫,使得三大股指聞訊下挫,但盤中亞馬遜與Netflix逆勢上揚,引領科技股反彈,且市場傳出聯準會考慮暫緩明年升息,亦收斂了大部分跌幅,使得股指收盤前由跌轉升。道瓊工業指數下跌79.40點,或0.32%,收24947.67點;標準普爾500指數下跌4.11點,或0.15%,收2695.95點;納斯達克指數上漲29.83點,或0.42%,收7188.26點。

個股方面,蘋果(AAPL)下跌1.11%,主因是受到紐約羅氏證券狠砍蘋果目標價至165美元,瑞銀亦調降蘋果目標價至210美元,並稱其消費者調查顯示iPhone購買意圖全面下滑的影響。受到美債殖利率持續下滑壓力,銀行股表現更加動盪,其中美國銀行(BAC)下跌2.67%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌1.33%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌1.90%;高盛(GS)下跌0.12%。而科技股方面,亞馬遜(AMZN)上漲 1.85%;臉書(FB)上揚1.23%;Netflix(NFLX)上揚2.74%;Alphabet(GOOGL)上揚1.47 %;微軟(MSFT-US)上漲0.62%。

日本股市週四因「華為衝擊」,加拿大應美國提出的引渡要求,逮捕中國電信設備/智慧手機大廠華為副董事長兼財務長孟晚舟,引發市場震撼,使得美中貿易摩擦惡化疑慮再起,日本電子零件等智慧手機相關類股慘摔,拖累日經指數開盤走低,隨後持續不斷的擴大跌幅,終場重挫1.91%或417.71點,收21,501.62點。

個股方面,日本電子零件股今日股價慘兮兮,其中村田製作所暴跌5.30%、TDK暴跌6.64%、Alps暴跌4.30%、太陽誘電暴跌6.58%、Rohm暴跌6.72%。和華為結盟進行5G驗證測試的日本電信商軟銀集團也暴跌4.93%。空調大廠大金下挫1.74%,但印度空調需求發展後勢強勁,大金傳將在印度蓋新廠,期望能倍增產能。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜回落收跌,最低觸及112.228一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗112.300一線。上行方面,價格阻力依舊考驗113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜震蕩收漲,最高探至1.14112一線收窄升幅。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊指向1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜延續收漲,嘗試突破1.28一線未果。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位考驗1.27000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位指向1.28400一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜微幅收漲,一度衝高至1244一線後收窄升幅。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1243一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位依舊考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜回落收跌,一度觸及50關口附近後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價考驗51一線支撐力度,關鍵心理關口50一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向53.60一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,一度觸及日低至24253一線後反彈收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗25400一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24300一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜回落收跌,一度觸及21000關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22000一線,下行支撐位看向21300一線。

 

 

 

06 12 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 06, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Resurgent fears over the U.S-China trade war sapped demand for riskier assets

·      The Pound remained on the back foot as debate on the government’s Brexit plan continued

·      The Canadian dollar weakened to one-and-a-half-year low against its U.S counterpart

·      Australia’s Q/Q growth fell to 0.3% while domestic demand came in weak

The Dollar was little changed against a currency basket yesterday as resurgent fears over the U.S-China trade war sapped demand for riskier assets, while the pound remained on the back foot as a parliamentary debate on the government’s Brexit plan continued. Wall Street slumped on Tuesday after a series of tweets by U.S President Donald Trump dented investor confidence that a full resolution to the U.S.-China trade conflict will be reached during a 90-day trade truce. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on China soon unless they make concessions, exacerbating fears over the outlook for global growth. Worries about U.S bond markets signaling an impending recession also weighed on market sentiment. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.93. Trading volumes were low, with U.S markets closed for a national day of mourning for President George H. W. Bush. Major currencies retraced some of Tuesday’s action today, as investors processed President Donald Trump’s latest comments on China trade. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar dropped to a six-month low versus its U.S rival, following a Bank of Canada policy update. While it was expected for the BOC to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged — with the overnight rate at 1.75% — the central bank’s comments on an anticipated loss of economic momentum in the fourth quarter, as well as weaker oil prices threw the Canadian dollar also referred to colloquially as the loonie, into a tailspin. Reduced business investment on the back of trade tensions over the summer, impacted the outlook for the last three months of the year, the BOC said. U.S-China trade relations remained front and center today after tweets by President Donald Trump on Tuesday caused some turbulence. The Australian dollar fell significantly, after recent ABS figures revealed Australia’s Gross Domestic Product slowed in September, missing expectations.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Trade Balance (OCT) Medium   A$3000m A$3017m
07:00 German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT) Medium   -3.1% -2.2%
12:30 U.S Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (NOV) Low     153.6%
13:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (NOV) Medium   195k 227k
13:30 U.S Trade Balance (OCT) Medium   -$55.0b -$54.0b
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 1) Medium   225k 234k
13:30 U.S Continuing Claims (NOV 24) Medium   1695k 1710k
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (NOV) Low     61.8
15:00 U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (NOV) High   59 60.3
15:00 U.S Factory Orders (OCT) Medium   -2.0% 0.7%
15:00 U.S Durable Goods Orders (OCT) Medium   -2.4% -4.4%
16:00 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 30) Medium     3577k
23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) (OCT) Medium   1.1% -1.6%
23:45 U.S Powell Gives Brief Welcome Remarks at Housing Conference High      

Euro

The single currency ended the day almost unchanged after falling earlier in the session. The EU commission presented its plan to reduce the dollar’s overwhelming dominance of the global economy and to strengthen the role of the euro, particularly for energy transactions. European capitals are increasingly frustrated with the global dominance of the dollar. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1309 and a high of 1.1359 before closing the day around 1.1343 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen lost ground yesterday. There were no data indicators in Japan or the U.S. Today, the focus will be on employment data will be in focus, with the release of ADP nonfarm payrolls and unemployment claims. We’ll also get a look at ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Japan will release household spending and average cash earnings. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.96 and a high of 113.22 before closing the day around 113.17 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rose against the Dollar and the euro yesterday as traders priced in an increased chance of the UK staying in the EU following a disastrous day for the prime minister. An unprecedented string of three defeats for the government and a key decision on Brexit from Europe’s top court sent sterling up. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2670 and a high of 1.2796 before closing the day at 1.2731 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to one-and-a-half-year low against its U.S counterpart yesterday as investors slashed expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada after a dovish interest rate announcement from the central bank. The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.75 per cent. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3250 and a high of 1.3397 before closing the day at 1.3352 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell significantly, after recent ABS figures revealed Australia’s Gross Domestic Product slowed in September, missing expectations. Q/Q growth fell to 0.3%, and was expected to come in at 0.6%, while domestic demand came in weak. The Australian dollar against the greenback crashed upon the news. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7258 and a high of 0.7354 before closing the day at 0.7273 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.51%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.58%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.10%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.16%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 05, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1341 1.13599 1.13095 1.13432 0.0002
USD/JPY 112.75 113.223 112.963 113.175 0.4150
GBP/USD 1.27151 1.27964 1.26703 1.27317 0.0017
USD/CHF 0.99718 1.00066 0.99686 0.99752 0.0003
USD/CAD 1.32612 1.3397 1.32504 1.33527 0.0093
EUR/JPY 127.887 128.468 127.766 128.393 0.4850
GBP/JPY 143.385 144.515 143.244 144.109 0.7280
CHF/JPY 113.037 113.469 112.915 113.422 0.3860
AUD/JPY 82.72 82.961 82.14 82.241 -0.4830
EUR/GBP 0.8921 0.893 0.88728 0.89077 -0.0009
EUR/CHF 1.13108 1.1329 1.13092 1.13162 0.0004
GBP/CHF 1.26791 1.27601 1.26702 1.27016 0.0020

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1265 1.1287 1.1315 1.1338 1.1366 1.1388 1.1416
USD/JPY 112.76 112.86 113.02 113.12 113.28 113.38 113.54
GBP/USD 1.2543 1.2607 1.2669 1.2733 1.2795 1.2859 1.2921
USD/CHF 0.9922 0.9945 0.9960 0.9983 0.9998 1.0021 1.0036
USD/CAD 1.3123 1.3187 1.3270 1.3333 1.3416 1.3480 1.3563
EUR/JPY 127.25 127.51 127.95 128.21 128.65 128.91 129.35
GBP/JPY 142.13 142.69 143.40 143.96 144.67 145.23 145.94
CHF/JPY 112.51 112.71 113.07 113.27 113.62 113.82 114.18
AUD/JPY 81.11 81.63 81.93 82.45 82.75 83.27 83.58
EUR/GBP 0.8820 0.8846 0.8877 0.8904 0.8934 0.8961 0.8991
EUR/CHF 1.1287 1.1298 1.1307 1.1318 1.1327 1.1338 1.1347
GBP/CHF 1.2571 1.2621 1.2661 1.2711 1.2751 1.2801 1.2841

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-06

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週三收漲,重返97關口上方。因加拿大央行宣布維持利率在1.75%不變,但也表示利率需要調高至“中性區間”。並稱貿易衝突可能會對全球需求造成更嚴重的影響,預計CPI將在接下來幾個月內放緩程度超過預期。數據顯示,進入第四季度,加拿大經濟增長動能有所減弱。加息的合適速度取決於“一系列因素”。決議出爐之後,使得美元/加元短線大漲。而日內無重大數據公佈,美元指數最終報收於97.03。

現貨黃金週三走勢震盪,亞市早盤開於1238.40美元/金衡盎司後金價震盪下行,錄得日內低點1233.10美元/金衡盎司後轉漲,金價震盪上行。歐市延續漲勢,波幅逐漸變窄。美市金價回落後多頭再次上攻,錄得日內高點1239.00美元/金衡盎司後下挫,之後小幅反彈,終收於1236.85美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收漲0.40美元,或0.76%,報52.98美元/桶。雖然市場普遍預期本週的政策會議上石油輸出國組織(OPEC)將落實減產,但減產規模可能不及預期,同時美元維持高位也打壓了油價的上漲空間。

週三美國股市休市,因為美國民眾正在為美國第41任總統老布希(George H.W. Bush)舉行全國哀悼日。

日本股市因美股(4日)慘跌,拖累日經指數5日開盤後指數隨即跳空大跌約280點、之後跌幅更進一步擴大至超過300點,不過在日元趨貶支撐下、令跌幅收斂,終場跌0.53%或116.72點,收21,919.33點,連續第2個交易日走跌,創約1週來(11月26日以來)收盤新低水準。

個股方面,任天堂逆勢上揚0.85%。寶可夢發威,Switch 11月日本銷售量飆增123%、連9個月稱霸。天氣不夠冷,UNIQLO日本同店銷售額連2個月萎縮,不過營運商迅銷無懼、逆勢勁揚1.0%。在4日已暴跌5.74%的夏普則再瀉4.0%創約2年來(2016年10月19日以來)收盤新低紀錄。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜反彈收漲,重回113關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐考驗113關口。上行方面,價格初步阻力位進一步看向113.700一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜震蕩收平,交投於1.13400一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標走平。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.12800一線。上行方面,價格阻力位進一步指向1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,一度逼近1.28一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐位考驗1.26800一線。上行方面,價格阻力位指向1.27700一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,高位交投於1237一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1242一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜震蕩收漲,最高探至54.42一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價依舊考驗52一線支撐力度。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向54.00一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜微幅收升,窄幅交投於25100一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗25500一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24700一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅反彈,逼近22000關口。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮 ,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22100一線,下行支撐位看向21400一線。

 

 

 

05 12 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 05, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Safe-haven buying emerged after President Trump’s tweet raised fears that trade war was not over

·      Falling Treasuries were blamed for the leg lower in the greenback earlier in the session

·      The Pound Fell as Prime Minister Theresa May’s government was found in contempt of parliament

·      Goldman Sachs said it continued to recommend investors position for a “tactical bounce in USD/CAD

The U.S Dollar rose from lows against its rivals yesterday after the plunge in U.S Treasury yields stalled. Safe-haven buying emerged after President Donald Trump’s tweets raised fears that the trade war was not over. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.11% to 96.86, but was above a session low of 96.31. Trump said in a tweet he was “Tariff Man,” reminding investors that he was not afraid to re-escalate trade tensions with China, scaling back optimism from a day earlier, prompting support for Treasuries and helping the greenback move off lows. Falling Treasuries were blamed for the leg lower in the greenback earlier in the session, as fears of an economic recession grew after short-dated Treasury rates rose above longer-dated rates, referred to as an inversion of the Treasury yield curve, a signal of a potential economic recession. Yields on two maturities at the front of the Treasury curve rose above longer-dated 5-year notes overnight Tuesday for the first time in more than a decade. The pound, meanwhile, reversed its gains from earlier after Prime Minister Theresa May’s government was found in contempt of parliament for refusing to release its full legal advice on Brexit. GBP/USD fell from a session high of $1.2839, which had followed hopes that Brexit could be canceled after a top European Officer said that UK should be able to unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the EU. USD/CAD rose 0.45% to $1.3256 a day ahead of Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, widely expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%. Ahead of the rate decision, Goldman Sachs said it continued to recommend investors position for a “tactical bounce in CAD vs. USD going into year-end,” citing expectations the Bank of Canada will continue to keep a January rate hike on the table. The markets were delighted with the results of a weekend meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Services (NOV) Medium     52.4
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High   3.3% 3.4%
01:45 Caixin China PMI Services (NOV) Medium   50.8 50.8
08:55 Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV) Low   53.3 53.3
09:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV) Low   53.1 53.1
09:30 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (NOV) Medium   52.5 52.2
10:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.0% 0.8%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 30) Medium     5.5%
13:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (NOV) Medium   195k 227k
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (NOV) Low   54.4 54.4
15:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision (DEC 5) High   1.75% 1.75%
15:00 U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (NOV) High   59 60.3
15:30 DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 30) Medium     3577k
19:00 U.S Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency traded sharply higher earlier in yesterday’s session but ended the day slightly lower. EU finance ministers agreed yesterday to give the euro zone ESM bailout fund new responsibilities, but delayed decisions on a euro zone budget and a deposit guarantee scheme after failing to reach an agreement. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1317 and a high of 1.1417 before closing the day around 1.1341 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded higher yesterday. The markets were delighted with the results of meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit. Trump had threatened to raise tariffs on all Chinese products from 10 percent to 25 percent on December 1, but the Chinese convinced Trump to hold off on the tariffs until March 1. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.55 and a high of 113.64 before closing the day around 112.76 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound traded higher at the start of the session following an unexpected piece of legal advice. The advocate general of the European Court of Justice said earlier today that the British government has the unilateral right to withdraw its notice of intent to leave the European Union. However, GBP ended the day lower against the U.S Dollar. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2656 and a high of 1.2837 before closing the day at 1.2714 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher in yesterday’s Asian trading hours, after sharp gains at the start of the week. On the release front today, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 1.75%. The Canadian dollar started the week with sharp gains after the U.S and China agreed to a truce in the tariff war. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3161 and a high of 1.3264 before closing the day at 1.3259 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has touched a multi-month peak in a knee jerk reaction to a pause in the Sino-US trade dispute, though there was plenty of caution about the prospects of a lasting peace. The White House said President Donald Trump told Chinese President Xi Jinping that he would not boost tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods on January 1 if Beijing agreed to buy an unspecified amount of US goods. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7324 and a high of 0.7391 before closing the day at 0.7334 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.86%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.83%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.03%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.05%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.09%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 04, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13523 1.14173 1.13171 1.13417 -0.0010
USD/JPY 113.626 113.642 112.557 112.76 -0.8790
GBP/USD 1.2723 1.28378 1.26566 1.27147 -0.0007
USD/CHF 0.99773 0.9989 0.99285 0.99726 -0.0005
USD/CAD 1.31966 1.32644 1.31616 1.32598 0.0064
EUR/JPY 128.992 129.018 127.596 127.908 -1.1080
GBP/JPY 144.58 144.734 142.817 143.381 -1.1960
CHF/JPY 113.833 113.859 112.838 113.036 -0.8210
AUD/JPY 83.606 83.635 82.536 82.724 -0.8620
EUR/GBP 0.89201 0.8943 0.88878 0.89165 -0.0004
EUR/CHF 1.13278 1.13462 1.13037 1.1312 -0.0015
GBP/CHF 1.26958 1.27546 1.2644 1.26816 -0.0012

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1200 1.1259 1.1300 1.1359 1.1400 1.1459 1.1501
USD/JPY 111.25 111.90 112.33 112.99 113.42 114.07 114.50
GBP/USD 1.2454 1.2555 1.2635 1.2736 1.2816 1.2918 1.2997
USD/CHF 0.9877 0.9903 0.9938 0.9963 0.9998 1.0024 1.0059
USD/CAD 1.3090 1.3126 1.3193 1.3229 1.3296 1.3331 1.3398
EUR/JPY 125.91 126.75 127.33 128.17 128.75 129.60 130.17
GBP/JPY 140.64 141.73 142.55 143.64 144.47 145.56 146.39
CHF/JPY 111.61 112.22 112.63 113.24 113.65 114.27 114.67
AUD/JPY 81.20 81.87 82.30 82.97 83.39 84.06 84.49
EUR/GBP 0.8833 0.8861 0.8889 0.8916 0.8944 0.8971 0.8999
EUR/CHF 1.1253 1.1278 1.1295 1.1321 1.1338 1.1363 1.1380
GBP/CHF 1.2522 1.2583 1.2632 1.2693 1.2743 1.2804 1.2853

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-05

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週二基本持平,盤中一度下挫至96.37,因中美貿易暫時休戰、美聯儲的“鴿派”轉向以及美債收益率曲線11年來首現倒掛都令多頭心灰意冷。但在美聯儲官員威廉姆斯發表講話稱,預計大約明年美聯儲還會漸進式加息,美聯儲會繼續採用點陣圖。薪資增速的進一步上揚預計將抬高美國通脹至略高於2%。在威廉姆斯發表後,美元指數短線反彈。而日內無重大數據公佈,美元指數最終報收於96.97。

國際原油週二收跌0.49美元,或0.92%,報52.58美元/桶。因美俄關係惡化拖累股市及其他風險資產慘遭拋售,同時減產計劃突現較大變數,加上美中貿易的擔憂也加劇了華爾街的不安情緒。美國國務卿蓬佩奧表示,美國將在60天內停止遵守中導條約,除非俄羅斯重新加入武器管控條約,這令原油多頭信心受挫。

現貨黃金週二強勢收漲,亞市早盤開於1230.60美元/金衡盎司後,錄得日內低點1230.15美元/金衡盎司後轉漲,金價震盪上行。歐市多頭強勢上攻,金價大幅拉升。美市金價轉跌後多頭再度發力,金價跳漲,錄得日內高點1241.75美元/金衡盎司後回落,終收於1238.40美元/金衡盎司。

美國股市週二重挫,對國際貿易緊張局勢及全球經濟增長放緩的擔憂令美股暴跌,美國10年期國債收益大幅下挫,進一步加重了市場壓力。三大股指跌幅均超過3%,道瓊工業指數跌799.36點,或3.1%,報25027.07點;標準普爾500指數跌90.31點,或3.24%,報2700.06點;納斯達克指數跌283.09點,或3.8%,報7158.43點。

個股方面,衡量市場恐慌程度的CBOE波動率指數(VIX)暴漲26.16%。道瓊工業指數權重股哀鴻遍野,卡特彼勒(CAT)收跌6.93%,波音(BA)收跌4.86%,英特爾(Intel)下跌4.75%,蘋果( AAPL)下跌4.40%。作為衡量美國經濟景氣狀況風向標的聯合包裹(UPS)重挫7.37%,聯邦快遞(FDX)下跌6.31%。以舫股票為首的科技股與互聯網板塊全線下跌,這5隻股票在週二當天市值蒸發1400億美元。

日本股市日經指數週二大跌,因外資拋售出口商和金融類股,此外日經指數過去7個交易日來(11月22日-12月3日)累計大漲超過1,000點,引發投資人獲利了結。日經指數收低2.39%或538.71點至22,036.05點。

個股方面,發那科挫跌5.13%,小松製作所跌3.8%,東京電子(東京威力科創)跌2.6%。三菱日聯金融集團跌2.2%,第一生命控股跌2.8%。夏普暴跌5.74%,創約2年來(2016年10月19日以來)收盤新低紀錄,因夏普龜山工廠大砍3千名外勞,且傳出其iPhone用零件已轉移至鴻海的中國工廠生產。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收跌,下破113關口,最低探至112.563一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標大幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐指向112.200一線附近。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力位考驗113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜沖高回落,一度觸及日高至1.14171一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.12800一線。上行方面,價格阻力位進一步指向1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜微幅收跌,盤中寬幅震蕩,最高探至1.28383一線,最低觸及1.26573一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位考驗1.26800一線。上行方面,價格阻力位指向1.27700一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜延續收漲,最高探至1241一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,金價阻力位進一步指向1245一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜沖高回落,一度觸及55.45一線後跳水走低。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價依舊考驗52一線支撐力度。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向54.00一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅收跌,回撤至25000關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向下。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗25500一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24700一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅收跌,失守22000關口,最低探至21570一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22000一線,下行支撐位看向21200一線。

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-04

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週一下跌,因中國主席與美國總統特朗普在阿根廷二十國集團(G20)峰會期間會面,同意暫停增加新關稅最少90天,期間舉行會談尋求化解彼此分歧。同時,中國同意購入更多美國農產品與取消美國汽車關稅。在中美兩國貿易宣布關稅戰休戰後,美元指數聞訊下跌,最終報收於96.97。數據方面,日內公佈的數據有喜有憂,數據表明美國11月Markit製造業PMI終值為55.3,低於前值和預期55.4,整體PMI跌至三個月低位,但11月數據表明製造業受到商業環境改善的提振。美國11月ISM製造業PMI為59.3,高於前值57.7和預期58.0。

現貨黃金週一收漲,亞市早盤開於1224.95美元/金衡盎司後短暫下跌,錄得日內低點1221.00美元/金衡盎司後轉漲,金價震盪上行。歐市多頭強勢上攻,金價大幅拉升。美市金價轉跌後多頭再度發力,金價跳漲,錄得日內高點1234.70美元/金衡盎司後回落,終收於1230.70美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收漲2.30美元,或4.53%,報53.07美元/桶。因中美貿易緊張局勢緩和令風險情緒大幅提振,同時加拿大方面意外宣布減產,這令油價獲得強勁支撐,目前投資者密切關注本週石油輸出國組織(OPEC)的政策會議。

美國股市週一因川習會在上週末宣布中美暫時停戰、暫緩關稅進一步升級,激勵華爾街買氣回籠,使得能源、科技和原物料類股領漲、美股三大指數齊揚。道瓊工業指數上漲287.97點,或1.13%,收25826.43點;標準普爾500指數上漲30.20點,或1.09%,收2790.37點;納斯達克指數上漲110.98點,或1.51%,收7441.51點。

個股方面,因美中停火協議緩解了對蘋果(AAPL)潛在的關稅威脅,使得蘋果上漲3.49%,重新奪回全球市值王的寶座,並且進一步增加科技股的漲勢。由於對中國的大量投資,晶片股在長達數月的美中對峙關係承壓,因美中休兵有助於提振半導體類股,AMD(AMD)大漲11.31%;Nvidia(NVDA)大漲4.04%;美光(MU)上漲3.81 %;高通 (QCOM)上漲1.51%;Intel(INTC)上漲1.66%。

日本股市因中美貿易戰風暴暫時歇息,激勵日經指數週一跳空開盤,終場勁揚1.00%或223.70點,收22,574.76點。

個股方面,日本景氣循環相關類股大受激勵,其中日立大漲4.14%、電子零件製造商TDK大漲4.25%。汽車類股也大大鬆了一口氣,日本三大車廠聯袂走揚,豐田汽車勁揚3.37%、本田汽車收高2.09%、日產汽車收漲1.23%。積極朝自駕車發展的瑞薩電子,其執行長Bunsei Kure表示在自駕車半導體領域維持領先,股價跳漲10.09%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜震蕩收跌,窄幅交投於113.600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱萎靡,雙線黏合,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐指向113.100一線附近。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗114關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.13783一線有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱溫和,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.12900一線。上行方面,價格阻力位進一步指向1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜反彈受阻,一度觸及日高至1.28233一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐位考驗1.27000一線,跌破將打開更多下行空間。上行方面,價格阻力位指向1.27800一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1234一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標向上。後市來看,金價阻力位進一步指向1240一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1224一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜跳空高開,重回53關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標脫離超賣區。後市來看,油價考驗52一線支撐力度。上行方面,油價初步阻力位進一步看向55.00一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜高開收漲,一度嘗試突破26000關口未果。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位依舊考驗26000關口。下行方面,價格支撐位看向25500一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜高開收漲,窄幅交投於22700一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22900一線,下行支撐位看向22000一線。