14 12 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 14, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S unemployment claims dropped to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand

·      U.S inflation was flat in November, dropping from 0.3 percent a month earlier

·      UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence yesterday

·      ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent and marked down its outlook on regional growth

The U.S Dollar was higher yesterday, as the number of people who filed for first-time unemployment benefits hit a two-and-a-half month low. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.19% to 97.20. The dollar was boosted after the U.S Department of Labor said that the number of individuals applying for initial jobless benefits in the seven days ended Dec. 8 decreased by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000. Meanwhile the pound was slightly higher after UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening. Brexit woes continue despite the victory, as it seems unlikely that May’s party will support her agreement with Brussels on leaving the European Union in March. The euro fell against the dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. On the other hand, ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Sterling held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. Traders’ attempt to extend sterling’ gains faded on uncertainty on what more May, who is currently in Brussels, could get from EU leaders to improve on her Brexit proposal. On Monday, May scrapped a parliamentary vote on her current plan, sending the pound to a 20-month low against the dollar and triggering a no-confidence vote on her leadership. The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell after data on Wednesday showed a smaller-than-expected drawdown in U.S crude stockpiles. U.S crude oil futures were down 0.6 per cent at $50.86 a barrel.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  Summit of EU Leaders High      
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (DEC) Medium     52.2
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV) Medium   8.8% 8.6%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) Medium   5.9% 5.9%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) Medium     4.2%
08:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.7 51.8
09:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.8 51.8
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (NOV) High   0.1% 0.8%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (NOV) Medium   0.4% 0.3%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Control Group (NOV) Medium   0.5% 0.3%
14:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.1%
14:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.3%
14:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   55.1 55.3
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (DEC) Medium   55 54.7
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (DEC 14) Medium     1075

 

Euro

The single currency fell against the Dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40%. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1329 and a high of 1.1392 before closing the day around 1.1356 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen moved lower in yesterday’s trading session. In the U.S, unemployment claims dropped sharply to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand. Japan’s manufacturing sector is being squeezed by the ongoing U.S-China trade war, which is having a chilling effect on the Japanese economy. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.18 and a high of 113.68 before closing the day around 113.59 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. It had rallied on Wednesday in anticipation as traders bet her win might allow her to negotiate more generous terms for Britain in its exit from the European Union in March. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2608 and a high of 1.2684 before closing the day at 1.2657 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The U.S dollar rose against a basket of major currencies after the European Central Bank trimmed its growth and inflation projections for next year, pressuring the euro. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3336 and a high of 1.3381 before closing the day at 1.3351 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is holding near a one-week high as riskier assets are boosted by signs of progress in Sino-US trade relations. But most of the action in the forex world was in the British pound with most other currencies bystanders amid high political drama in Britain, where Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote on her leadership. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7210 and a high of 0.7244 before closing the day at 0.7228 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.22%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.57%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.40%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.30%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.31%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1368 1.1392 1.13297 1.13563 -0.0011
USD/JPY 113.291 113.689 113.186 113.597 0.3320
GBP/USD 1.26258 1.26846 1.26083 1.26577 0.0032
USD/CHF 0.99334 0.99525 0.99098 0.9938 0.0005
USD/CAD 1.33487 1.33816 1.3336 1.33514 0.0003
EUR/JPY 128.802 129.231 128.685 129.048 0.2840
GBP/JPY 143.056 143.909 142.867 143.803 0.8110
CHF/JPY 114.027 114.418 113.937 114.256 0.2620
AUD/JPY 81.797 82.174 81.657 82.066 0.3300
EUR/GBP 0.90025 0.90129 0.89504 0.89733 -0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.12937 1.12999 1.12637 1.12924 0.0000
GBP/CHF 1.25425 1.25897 1.25289 1.25822 0.0039

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1264 1.1297 1.1327 1.1359 1.1389 1.1422 1.1451
USD/JPY 112.79 112.99 113.29 113.49 113.80 113.99 114.30
GBP/USD 1.2540 1.2574 1.2616 1.2650 1.2692 1.2727 1.2768
USD/CHF 0.9872 0.9891 0.9914 0.9933 0.9957 0.9976 1.0000
USD/CAD 1.3285 1.3311 1.3331 1.3356 1.3377 1.3402 1.3422
EUR/JPY 128.20 128.44 128.75 128.99 129.29 129.53 129.84
GBP/JPY 142.10 142.48 143.14 143.53 144.19 144.57 145.23
CHF/JPY 113.51 113.72 113.99 114.20 114.47 114.68 114.95
AUD/JPY 81.24 81.45 81.76 81.97 82.27 82.48 82.79
EUR/GBP 0.8882 0.8916 0.8945 0.8979 0.9007 0.9041 0.9070
EUR/CHF 1.1235 1.1249 1.1271 1.1285 1.1307 1.1322 1.1343
GBP/CHF 1.2483 1.2506 1.2544 1.2567 1.2605 1.2628 1.2666

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 市場報告                     2018-12-14

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週四(12月13日)收漲,歐市盤中歐洲央行宣布利率維持不變,使得歐元應聲下滑,美元趁機攀升。美市盤中日內公布的上週初請失業救濟金人數為20.6萬人,低於前值23.1萬人,及預期值22.5萬人,為美元指數上漲帶來助力,錄得日內高點97.29。但在收盤前回落,收回日內漲幅,最終報收97.09。

現貨黃金週四亞市早盤開於1245.30美元/金衡盎司後,金價區間震盪,錄得日內高點1246.50美元/金衡盎司後轉跌。歐市金價轉入盤整後再度下挫,盤中出現大幅拋壓,金價跳水。美市多頭反攻多空激烈交戰,振幅加大,錄得日內低點1239.90美元/金衡盎司後盤整,終收於1241.90美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油收漲1.67美元,或3.26%,報52.84美元/桶。國際能源署(IEA)表示,鑑於伊朗和委內瑞拉等國的產量下滑,石油輸出國組織(OPEC)的實際減產幅度可能是計劃中的兩倍,且中美貿易談話透露出利好跡象,使得風險情緒好轉,為油價提供有效支撐。但歐洲央行宣布維持利率不變,使得歐元應聲下滑,美元指數趁機攀升,限制了油價的上行空間。

美國股市週四漲跌不一,其中公用事業、石油和天然氣和生活消費品等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高;與此同時,基礎材料、電信和消費服務板塊等下跌的使股指走低。道瓊工業指數上漲70.11點,或0.29%,報24,597.38點;標普500指數收跌0.53點或0.02%,報2,650.54點;納斯達克指數收跌27.98點,或0.39%,報7,070.33點。

個股方面,Netflix(NFLX)上漲0.41%;臉書(FB)股價上漲0.35%;亞馬遜(AMZN)下跌0.31%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌0.02%;蘋果(AAPL)上漲 1.09%;美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.53%;高盛(GS)下跌0.46%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌 1.49%;摩根大通(JPM)上漲0.10%。

日本股市週四上漲,因中美貿易談判有進展,海運、鋼鐵等今年來跌幅頗大的景氣敏感類股大漲,也激勵日經225指數13日持續走揚,終場漲0.99%或213.44點,收21,816.19點。

個股方面,新日鐵住金大漲2.13%、JFE Holdings勁揚1.79%、商船三井大漲2.05%、日本郵船勁揚1.64%。軟銀下挫1.30%。軟銀傳出將捨棄華為,計畫將華為等中國製基地台自現行的4G設備中移除、更換成歐廠產品,且5G基地台也將向歐廠下單。任天堂上揚0.46%,新遊戲軟體「任天堂明星大亂鬥 特別版」夯爆,Switch日本銷量飆增1.6倍,累計銷售量突破600萬台、破600萬台的速度比PS4快上一倍。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜溫和收漲,最高探至113.694一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗113.200一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊指向113.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜震荡微跌,交投於1.13600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能微縮,RSI指標走平。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,小幅探高至1.26856一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.26000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,溫和回撤至1239一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1253一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜反彈收漲,最低觸及50.34一線後走高。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上。後市來看,油價依舊考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位進一步看向53.80一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜基本收平,震蕩交投於24560一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標走平。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力位依舊考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24200一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜低開收漲,最高探至21845一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22100一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。

 

13 12 月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, December 13, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24555 2651.00 6765.50
+0.31% +0.32% +0.50%

U.S stocks advanced as the outlook for trade took a positive turn and confidence grew that the British prime minister will defeat a challenge to her leadership. The S&P 500 rose as much as 1.9 percent before an afternoon slump that cut the advance by more than half. The slide marks the fourth straight day that investors have sold an early rally, continuing a trend that’s a stark reversal from months where traders bought any meaningful dip. Oil’s retreat coincided with the move, amid reports that deep discord exists among OPEC members ahead of planned output cuts. The early gains came as signs emerged that trade tensions would ease, first after the arrested Huawei executive was granted bail and then when President Donald Trump suggested he could use his influence to calm that situation as part of a deal with China. For its part, China hinted that it would ease access to local markets. Treasuries and the dollar both slipped as data showed a key measure of U.S inflation picked up as expected in November.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

Summit of EU Leaders      

nov

U.K RICS House Price Balance 00:01 -10.0% -10.0%

nov

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 07:00 2.3% 2.3%

dec

SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate 08:30 -0.75% -0.75%

 

SNB’s Jordan Speaks at Press Conference in Bern 09:00    

dec

European Central Bank Rate Decision 12:45 0.00% 0.00%

oct

Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) 13:30 0.1% 0.2%

dec

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 225k 231k

nov

U.S Monthly Budget Statement 19:00 -$197.0b -$100.5b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.64%. The best performers of the session were DowDuPont Inc., which rose 2.05% or 1.09 points to trade at 54.35 at the close. Meanwhile, American Express Company added 1.97% or 2.08 points to end at 107.48 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 1.73% or 2.13 points to 125.37 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which fell 2.72% or 1.60 points to trade at 57.25 at the close. Exxon Mobil Corp declined 0.86% or 0.66 points to end at 76.02 and Walmart Inc. was down 0.79% or 0.74 points to 93.11.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.95%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Teligent Inc. which rose 30.80% to 1.805, Staffing 360 Solutions Inc. which was up 28.79% to settle at 1.700 and EyeGate Pharmaceuticals Inc. which gained 28.30% to close at 0.513. The worst performers were Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 52.80% to 0.160 in late trade, Yangtze River Port and Logistics Ltd which lost 23.34% to settle at 4.86 and Neurotrope Inc. which was down 23.03% to 3.8100 at the close.

Oil

U.S crude oil inventories fell less than expected last week, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report yesterday. The EIA data showed that crude oil inventories decreased by 1.21 million barrels in the week to Dec. 7. That was compared to forecasts for a stockpile draw of 2.99 million barrels, after a drop of 7.32 million barrels in the previous week, amounting to a second straight weekly decline. The EIA report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 2.09 million barrels, compared to expectations for a build of 2.46 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles unexpectedly decreased by 1.48 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.80 million. Ahead of the release, oil prices had already been climbing after the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly report said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories fell by 10.2 million barrels last week. Oil has also been supported this week by the supply loss in Libya, which declared force majeure on exports from the country’s largest oilfield on Sunday.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices edged higher yesterday as the dollar slipped and expectations for the number of U.S interest rate hikes next year dimmed, increasing the appeal of non-interest yielding bullion. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,244.40 per ounce. U.S gold futures settled up $2.80, or 0.22 percent, at $1,250. The dollar was weaker against a basket of currencies after data showed U.S consumer prices were unchanged in November, supporting the view that underlying inflation remained firm, but not enough to push the Federal Reserve to take a more aggressive stance. We are seeing a bit of support from a weaker dollar across the commodities complex. In addition to that, we are seeing an ongoing outflow of funds from equities and that money flow into alternative assets continues to support the precious metals complex. Investors kept an eye out for developments around U.S-China trade talks, and on Brexit after lawmakers in British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives gathered enough support to trigger a no-confidence vote in her leadership yesterday. The safe-haven assets continue to be well supported in this environment and that along with some recent comments from the Fed on changing their potential path on interest rates has also been supportive. Markets are not expecting more than one rate hike from the U.S central bank next year, after a likely interest rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18-19. Next week’s FOMC meeting is going to be the last major economic event of the year. The gold market has started to price in the ‘one and done’ interest rate scenario. Dollar-denominated bullion earlier this week touched its highest level in five months at $1,250.55 per ounce as chances of slower interest rate hikes reduced the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal. Indicative of investor interest in gold, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to the highest level since late August on Tuesday.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures hit a 4-1/2-month high yesterday as China bought U.S soybeans for the first time since U.S President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in early December.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24347 24842 24334 24555 141
S & P 500 SPM18 2632.5 2686.25 2631.5 2651 10.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6686.25 6871.5 6683.25 6765.5 50.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26028 26270 25991 26233 520
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21260 21625 21230 21620 550
FTSE 100 FTH18 6855.5 6903.5 6826.5 6851.5 20.5
Gold GCJ18 1248.2 1252.2 1246.9 1250.4 2.3
Silver SIK18 1465 1488 1462 1482.5 18.5
Copper HGK18 276.35 277.9 275.55 276.35 0
Crude Oil CLK18 51.92 52.79 50.91 51.16 -0.77
Wheat WK18 522.5 528.5 521.25 526 5.5
Soybeans SK18 915.5 927.5 915 919.5 4.75
Corn CK18 384.5 387.25 384 384.75 0.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23804 24069 24312 24577 24820 25085 25328
SPM18 2571.50 2601.50 2626.25 2656.25 2681.00 2711.00 2735.75
NDM18 6487.08 6585.17 6675.33 6773.42 6863.58 6961.67 7051.83
HSH18 25780 25886 26059 26165 26338 26444 26617
NKH18 20963 21097 21358 21492 21753 21887 22148
FTH18 6740.50 6783.50 6817.50 6860.50 6894.50 6937.50 6971.50
GCJ18 1242.17 1244.53 1247.47 1249.83 1252.77 1255.13 1258.07
SIK18 1441.00 1451.50 1467.00 1477.50 1493.00 1503.50 1519.00
HGK18 272.95 274.25 275.30 276.60 277.65 278.95 280.00
CLK18 48.57 49.74 50.45 51.62 52.33 53.50 54.21
WK18 514.75 518.00 522.00 525.25 529.25 532.50 536.50
SK18 901.33 908.17 913.83 920.67 926.33 933.17 938.83
CK18 380.17 382.08 383.42 385.33 386.67 388.58 389.92

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

13 12 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 13, 2018


 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates

·      The ongoing U.S-China trade war has had a chilling effect on the Japanese manufacturing sector

·      The likely outcome of Friday’s summit are a blow to German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz

·      The Canadian Dollar gained against the U.S Dollar, boosted by higher oil prices

 

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday, as inflation data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes in 2019. The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, slowing from the 0.3% increase seen in October. Analysts had forecast a 0.1% increase. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 97.09. The dollar has been under pressure recently amid expectations that the Fed will pause its pace of interest rate hikes next year, despite an expected rate increase next week. The British pound has rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. In the latest twist for sterling in a turbulent week, the pound rose to $1.2620 against the dollar and €1.1121 against the euro, as more than 150 Conservative MPs said they would vote for the PM. Business leaders reacted angrily to the fresh turmoil in Westminster, saying the latest uncertainty was bad for the economy. The US Dollar has been grinding higher against the Japanese yen for some time, but every time we get close to the ¥114 level, we pull back a bit and it looks likely that the uptrend underneath should continue to offer support. Ultimately, this is a market that should eventually make a decision, but it may not be until 2019 that it happens. Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. This missed the estimate of 2.4%. The Canadian Dollar was boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy stands to benefit if the outlook improves for the global flow of trade and capital.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (DEC) Medium 3.6%
00:01 U.K RICS House Price Balance (NOV) Medium -10.0% -10.0%
07:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 2.3% 2.3%
08:30 SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate (DEC 13) High -0.75% -0.75%
09:00 SNB’s Jordan Speaks at Press Conference in Bern High
12:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (DEC 13) High 0.00% 0.00%
12:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility (DEC 13) High 0.25% 0.25%
12:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DEC 13) High -0.40% -0.40%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium 0.1% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Export Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 3.1%
13:30 U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (NOV) Medium 0.0% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 8) Medium 225k 231k
19:00 U.S Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) Medium -$197.0b -$100.5b
23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (4Q) Medium 18 19

Euro

The single currency gained in yesterday’s session. European Union leaders will ditch proposals to use a euro zone budget for economic stabilization and restrict any funds to long-standing EU goals of convergence among their economies and increasing competitiveness, draft summit conclusions showed yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1313 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1366 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted small gains yesterday. On the release front, Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. In the U.S, consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.12 and a high of 113.50 before closing the day around 113.26 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. Sterling rose by more than 1% against the dollar and by 0.8% against the euro yesterday after Tory rebels triggered the vote on May’s leadership of their party. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2475 and a high of 1.2670 before closing the day at 1.2625 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart, boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with Reuters, said that trade talks with Beijing were under way by telephone, with more meetings likely between U.S and Chinese officials.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3320 and a high of 1.3395 before closing the day at 1.3348 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar rose along with global equities as tentative signs of easing Sino-US trade tensions whetted risk appetite. A gauge of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 0.9 per cent while US stock futures were upbeat too. Risk appetite got a boost after U.S President Donald Trump said trade talks with Beijing were already underway, with more meetings likely among US and Chinese officials. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7196 and a high of 0.7236 before closing the day at 0.7217 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.00%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.09%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.67%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.15%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 12, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13153 1.1386 1.13137 1.13669 0.0051
USD/JPY 113.356 113.502 113.121 113.265 -0.0900
GBP/USD 1.2485 1.26704 1.24753 1.26256 0.0139
USD/CHF 0.9931 0.99637 0.99112 0.99331 0.0002
USD/CAD 1.339 1.33951 1.332 1.33485 -0.0039
EUR/JPY 128.29 128.842 128.275 128.764 0.4910
GBP/JPY 141.536 143.421 141.497 142.992 1.4210
CHF/JPY 114.111 114.362 113.796 113.994 -0.1190
AUD/JPY 81.628 82.029 81.589 81.736 0.0750
EUR/GBP 0.90612 0.90673 0.89668 0.90005 -0.0061
EUR/CHF 1.12397 1.12952 1.12325 1.1292 0.0053
GBP/CHF 1.24002 1.258 1.23961 1.25432 0.0142

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1253 1.1283 1.1325 1.1356 1.1397 1.1428 1.1470
USD/JPY 112.71 112.92 113.09 113.30 113.47 113.68 113.85
GBP/USD 1.2315 1.2395 1.2510 1.2590 1.2706 1.2786 1.2901
USD/CHF 0.9856 0.9884 0.9908 0.9936 0.9961 0.9989 1.0013
USD/CAD 1.3239 1.3279 1.3314 1.3355 1.3389 1.3430 1.3464
EUR/JPY 127.85 128.06 128.41 128.63 128.98 129.19 129.55
GBP/JPY 139.93 140.71 141.85 142.64 143.78 144.56 145.70
CHF/JPY 113.17 113.48 113.74 114.05 114.31 114.62 114.87
AUD/JPY 81.10 81.34 81.54 81.78 81.98 82.22 82.42
EUR/GBP 0.8855 0.8911 0.8956 0.9012 0.9056 0.9112 0.9157
EUR/CHF 1.1189 1.1211 1.1251 1.1273 1.1314 1.1336 1.1377
GBP/CHF 1.2249 1.2323 1.2433 1.2506 1.2617 1.2690 1.2801

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-13

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週三(12月12日)下跌,今年早些發布的美國經濟數據,引發對通膨上升的擔憂,但近期美國通膨報告顯示出通膨非常溫和。數據顯示,11月消費者物價指數年率為2.2%,低於前值2.5%,符合預期;11月核心消費者物價指數年率為2.2%,高於前值2.1%,符合預期。數據公布後,美元指數轉跌,跌破97關口,錄得日內低點96.90,在收盤前回升,最終報收97.05。

現貨黃金週三亞市早盤開於1242.70美元/金衡盎司後金價下跌,錄得日內低點1241.75美元/金衡盎司。歐市盤中金價震盪上行,多空陷入激戰。美市多頭再度上攻,錄得日內高點1247.00美元/金衡盎司後,先下跌再轉盤整,終收於1245.20美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收跌0.78美元,或1.50%,報51.17美元/桶。美國能源信息署(EIA)週三公佈報告顯示,截至12月7日當週,美國原油庫存減少120.8萬桶至4.42億桶;美國周度餾分油庫存減少147.5萬桶,市場預估為增加180.1萬桶。數據公布後,雖然美國原油庫存和產量齊降為油價帶來有效支撐,但石油輸出國組織(OPEC)內部分歧,恐影響未來的減產行動,也使得市場憂慮加劇,令油價回吐日內漲幅並最終收跌。

美國股市週三上漲,受到美中利多消息頻傳,貿易樂觀情緒激勵美股三大指數全面開漲,科技股領漲,道瓊盤中一度大漲逾 450 點,爾後尾盤收斂漲幅。道瓊工業指數上漲157.03點,或0.64%,報24,527.27點;標普500指數收高14.29點,或0.54%,報2,651.07點;納斯達克指數收高66.48點,或0.95%,報7,098.31點。

個股方面,Netflix(NFLX)上漲3.60%;臉書(FB)股價上漲1.70%;亞馬遜(AMZN)上漲1.24%;Alphabet(GOOGL)上漲1.14%;蘋果(AAPL)上漲0.28%、美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.24%;高盛(GS) 下跌0.06%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌0.04%;摩根大通(JPM)上漲0.65%。

日本股市週三上漲,因華為副董事長兼財務長獲得保釋,市場期待美中緊張情勢有望因此舒緩,提振大金等中國相關類股飆漲,加上日元走貶,激勵日經225指數12日開盤後指數隨即跳空大漲200點,且之後漲幅一路擴大,終場大漲2.15%或454.73點,收21,602.75點。

個股方面,積極搶攻中國市場的嬰童用品大廠Pigeon暴漲6.14%,空調大廠大金飆漲5.36%,Fanuc勁揚1.20%,DMG森精機大漲2.11%,Okuma大漲2.33%,Panasonic大漲3.19%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,窄幅交投於113.300一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐依舊考驗113關口。上行方面,價格阻力指向113.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜反彈收漲,最高探至1.13859一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能微增,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位考驗1.14100一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜反彈收漲,最高探至1.26705一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐位指向1.25000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.26800一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,窄幅交投於1244一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1254一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1237一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收跌,最高觸及52.81一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位進一步看向53.60一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至24842一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力位考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24200一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至21820一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標大幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22100一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。

 

12 12 月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Wednesday, December 12, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24414 2640.50 6714.75
+0.47% +0.54% +0.70%

U.S stocks recouped losses to trade higher yesterday in a volatile session as investors weighted mounting political tension in the nation’s capital against renewed optimism over U.S-China trade talks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 25 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 index gained 5 points, or 0.2% and the NASDAQ climbed 20 points, or 0.3%. A contentious meeting between President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi over border security, with Trump threatening to shut down government, battered already fragile sentiment, sending stocks lower at midday. Equities subsequently moved back into positive territory. Stocks had charged higher at the opening bell after the U.S. and China launched formal trade talks with a phone call. The initial conversation included Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese vice Premier Liu He, where they discussed changes to fundamental Chinese economic policies.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) 04:30 0.8% -1.1%

oct

Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) 10:00 0.8% 0.9%

dec

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 12:00   2.0%

nov

U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) 13:30 2.2% 2.5%

nov

U.S Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) 13:30 2.2% 2.1%

nov

U.S Real Avg Weekly Earnings (YoY) 13:30   0.9%

nov

U.S Real Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY) 13:30   0.7%

dec

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 15:30   -7323k

nov

U.S Monthly Budget Statement 19:00 -$197.0b -$100.5b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones fell 0.22%. The best performers of the session were Nike Inc., which rose 1.46% or 1.06 points to trade at 73.57 at the close. Meanwhile, Verizon Communications Inc. added 1.00% or 0.58 points to end at 58.85 and Procter & Gamble Company was up 0.95% or 0.88 points to 93.91 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were The Travelers Companies Inc., which fell 1.65% or 2.03 points to trade at 120.97 at the close. Boeing Co declined 1.32% or 4.32 points to end at 322.03 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was down 1.14% or 2.03 points to 176.80.

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.16%. The top performers were Draper Oakwood Technology Acquisition Inc. which rose 60.09% to 10.23, Myos Rens Technology Inc. which was up 58.88% and Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated which gained 32.28% to close at 17.170. The worst performers were Destination Maternity Corporation which was down 24.94% to 3.01 in late trade, SeaChange International Inc. which lost 22.47% to settle at 1.38 and Ocean Power Technologies Inc. which was down 21.57% to 0.320 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices rose yesterday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses with the help of a slightly weaker dollar and an outage hurting Libyan production. Yesterday’s recovery in global equities eased some pressure on oil, but the U.S stock market turned negative around midday. Crude futures pared gains as stocks fell. U.S crude futures rose 65 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $51.65 a barrel, after earlier rising more than 2 percent to $52.43. Global stocks have fallen by more than 5 percent so far this month on worries about the impact of a U.S trade dispute with China on economic growth. Any slowdown would hurt oil demand. Yesterday’s dip in the U.S Dollar offered some respite. A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for holders of other currencies. A further boost came from a shutdown in production in Libya, where the National Oil Company (NOC) declared force majeure on Monday on exports from the El Sharara oilfield, the country’s biggest, which was seized last weekend by a militia group.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold firmed yesterday as expectations that the U.S Federal Reserve may slow its interest rate hike trajectory next year weighed on the dollar and stoked interest in bullion, which as a non-yielding asset tends to suffer from rising rates. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,247.68 per ounce. It touched its highest since July 11 at $1,250.55 in the prior session. U.S. gold futures were 0.3 percent higher at $1,253.10 per ounce. Fed funds futures pricing has been reducing the market expectations for hikes over the next 18 months and that has been coming through in a slightly softer dollar and a stronger gold price. As real interest rates in the U.S. approach a neutral level, we think the Fed is going to get incrementally cautious and won’t be hiking rates in such a metronomic fashion. In light of that, we think prices could rally back into the high $1,200s. The U.S Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates at its Dec. 18-19 meeting, but the market is focusing on how much further it might lift rates next year. Based on prices of Fed fund futures, traders now see a 73 percent chance of a rate hike next week, and just a 49 percent chance of a further hike by the end of next year. Investors also kept a close eye on developments surrounding Britain’s departure from the European Union after the country’s prime minister postponed a vote on her deal. Postponing the vote – probably until mid-January – means that the UK government has even less time for the entire Brexit procedure. Most importantly, it means continued uncertainty, which should keep demand for gold at a high level. Meanwhile, hedge funds and money managers trimmed their net short positions in Comex gold contracts in the week to Dec. 4, data showed on Monday. There remains significant scope for the market to further increase long positions and to further reduce short positions. A weaker dollar, driven by moderating Fed policy, could provide the market with the necessary impetus.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures turned higher yesterday as traders’ anticipated potential Chinese purchases of U.S agricultural products, and shrugged off a bearish monthly global soy inventories report from the U.S Department of Agriculture.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24480 24821 24229 24414 -73
S & P 500 SPM18 2643.75 2677.75 2621 2640.5 -2.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6694.5 6808.5 6650.75 6714.75 15.5
Hang Seng HSH18 25653 25857 25561 25713 3
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21255 21255 20990 21070 -10
FTSE 100 FTH18 6778.5 6859 6742 6831 62.5
Gold GCJ18 1250 1254.8 1245.7 1248.1 -1.4
Silver SIK18 1462 1481 1459.5 1464 -4.5
Copper HGK18 273.25 278.05 272.6 276.35 3.3
Crude Oil CLK18 50.86 52.39 50.67 51.93 1.06
Wheat WK18 524.25 528.75 517.25 520.5 -4.5
Soybeans SK18 907.75 916.75 905.75 914.75 5.25
Corn CK18 383 385.5 380.75 384.5 1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23563 23896 24155 24488 24747 25080 25339
SPM18 2558.33 2589.67 2615.08 2646.42 2671.83 2703.17 2728.58
NDM18 6483.08 6566.92 6640.83 6724.67 6798.58 6882.42 6956.33
HSH18 25268 25414 25564 25710 25860 26006 26156
NKH18 20690 20840 20955 21105 21220 21370 21485
FTH18 6645.33 6693.67 6762.33 6810.67 6879.33 6927.67 6996.33
GCJ18 1235.17 1240.43 1244.27 1249.53 1253.37 1258.63 1262.47
SIK18 1433.83 1446.67 1455.33 1468.17 1476.83 1489.67 1498.33
HGK18 267.83 270.22 273.28 275.67 278.73 281.12 284.18
CLK18 49.22 49.94 50.94 51.66 52.66 53.38 54.38
WK18 504.08 510.67 515.58 522.17 527.08 533.67 538.58
SK18 897.08 901.42 908.08 912.42 919.08 923.42 930.08
CK18 376.92 378.83 381.67 383.58 386.42 388.33 391.17

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-12

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週二(12月11日)收漲,歐市盤中受到英國脫歐不確定因素加上中美貿易戰使美元指數下跌,盤中最低來到96.87,美市開盤美國公佈11月生產者物價指數月率為0.1%,低於前值0.6%,高於預期值0.0%;11月生產者物價指數年率為2.5%,低於前值2.9%,與預期值相同;11月核心生產者物價指數月率為0.3%,低於前值0.5%,高於預測值0.1%;11月核心生產者物價指數年率為2.7%,高於前值2.6%及預測值2.5%。數據公布後,美元指數上漲,最終報收97.47。

現貨黃金週二亞市早盤開於1243.90美元/金衡盎司後金價小幅攀升,不斷走高。歐市盤中金價延續漲勢,錄得日內高點1249.30美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行。美市盤中金價下跌,多空交鋒激烈,空方終佔優,錄得日內低點1240.80美元/金衡盎司後反彈,終收於1242.70美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收漲1.13美元,或2.22%,報51.95美元/桶。因利比亞的重要油田被武裝佔領而被迫關閉,令市場供應過剩憂慮有所緩解,為多頭帶來喘息,但美元指數繼續走高,依然限制油價的上行空間。

美國股市週二漲跌互見,由於中國傳出將削減美輸中汽車關稅影響,激勵早盤汽車類股大漲,但貿易樂觀情緒被美國總統川普威脅關閉美國政府、譴責中國駭客攻擊和經濟間諜活動的政治不確定性所抵消,終場S&P500和道瓊指數小幅震盪收跌。道瓊工業指數下跌53.02點,或0.22%,至24,370.24點;標普500指數下跌0.94點,或0.04%,至2,636.78;納斯達克指數上漲11.31點,或0.16%,至7,031.83。

個股方面,科技股漲跌互見,蘋果(AAPL)下跌0.57%、Netflix(NFLX)下跌1.62%;臉書(FB)股價上漲0.16%,亞馬遜(AMZN)上漲0.13%、和Alphabet(GOOGL)上漲0.80%,美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.71%;高盛(GS)下跌1.14%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌2.13%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌0.96%。

日本股市週二下跌,因日元10日走貶,提振日經225指數11日以紅盤21,273點開出,之後因市場憂心美中貿易摩擦,電子零件、半導體等景氣敏感類股下挫,也拖累日經指數翻黑走跌,終場跌0.34%或71.48點,收21,148.02點。

個股方面,日本電子零件股走跌。村田製作所下挫1.25%、TDK重挫2.27%、太陽誘電慘跌4.30%。三井高科技暴跌18.78%,創2017年2月27日以來收盤新低紀錄。半導體庫存調整擴大,電子零件事業銷售遜色,三井高科技下砍財測,華為通訊機器競爭對手富士通逆勢上揚0.20%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收涨,震蕩交投於113.300一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐依舊考驗113關口。上行方面,價格阻力進一步指向113.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續收跌,一度嘗試反彈至1.14000一線附近後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能縮減,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.12600一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜延續收跌,最低探至1.24788一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐位下看1.24000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位指向1.26800一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,一度衝高至1249一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1252一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1230一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,交投於51關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位進一步看向54.30一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收跌,最高探至24820一線後回吐升幅。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗25100一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24000關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜微幅收漲,交投於21300一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21800一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。

 

11 12 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

 December 11, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Greenback strengthened versus a basket of currencies yesterday that includes the Euro

·      Sentix research group said its investor sentiment index for the euro zone slid to -0.3 from 8.8

·      British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal

·      Japan’s current account surplus dropped sharply to JPY 1.21 trillion, down from 1.33 trillion

 

The U.S Dollar was higher yesterday, as the pound tumbled amid reports that UK Prime Minister is cancelling a vote on Tuesday on the Brexit draft proposal. The pound slid to its weakest level in nearly 1-1/2 years against the dollar on Monday as British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal, rekindling doubts about U.K.’s departure from the European Union in March. The greenback enjoyed a mild recovery following its steepest weekly drop versus a basket of currencies in three months last week, as traders reduced their expectations that the Federal Reserve might pause its interest rate hikes sooner than previously thought. On Sunday Chinese officials summoned the U.S. ambassador to Beijing to protest the arrest of the chief financial officer of Chinese electronics giant Huawei, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada. U.S officials are investigating her role in the company’s operations in Iran. The arrest of Meng has added to tensions between the two biggest economic countries in the world. U.S President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on Dec. 1 to a 90-day truce on trade tariffs. Still, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday there is a “hard deadline”, noting U.S.-China trade negotiations need to reach a successful end by March 1. The euro hit a three-month peak versus the pound at 90.47 pence. It was last up 0.77 percent at 90.22 pence. The Japanese yen was down in yesterday’s trading session. On the release front, Japan’s current account surplus dropped sharply to JPY 1.21 trillion, down from 1.33 trillion. This missed the estimate of JPY 1.29 trillion. Japanese Final GDP declined 0.6%, missing the estimate of 0.5%. In the U.S, JOLTS Job Openings improved to 7.08 million, but was well short of the estimate of 7.22 million. Today, Japan releases manufacturing data, while the U.S releases Producer Price Index reports. The new trading week started with dismal Japanese data, as Final GDP in the third quarter declined 0.6%.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (NOV) Medium     4
00:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) (3Q) Low   -2.0% -0.6%
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (NOV) Medium     -0.7%
09:30 U.K Claimant Count Rate (NOV) Medium     2.7%
09:30 U.K Jobless Claims Change (NOV) Medium     20.2k
09:30 U.K Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (OCT) Medium   3.0% 3.0%
09:30 U.K Employment Change 3M/3M (OCT) Medium   25k 23k
10:00 German ZEW Survey Current Situation (DEC) Medium   55 58.2
10:00 German ZEW Survey Expectations (DEC) High   -25 -24.1
10:00 Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (DEC) High     -22
11:00 U.S NFIB Small Business Optimism (NOV) Low   107 107.4
13:30 U.S PPI Final Demand (YoY) (NOV) Low   2.5% 2.9%
19:15 RBNZ’s Orr at Parliament Committee on Annual Report High      
23:50 Japan Machine Orders (YoY) (OCT) Medium   5.0% -7.0%

 

Euro

The single currency fell as investor morale in the euro zone slumped to a four-year low in December as fears about trade conflicts, Italy’s budget row with the European Union and Brexit led to a collapse in sentiment, a survey showed. Sentix research group said its investor sentiment index for the euro zone slid to -0.3 from 8.8 in November. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1349 and a high of 1.1441 before closing the day around 1.1354 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen was down yesterday. On the release front, Japan’s current account surplus dropped sharply to JPY 1.21 trillion, down from 1.33 trillion. This missed the estimate of JPY 1.29 trillion. Japanese Final GDP declined 0.6%, missing the estimate of 0.5%. In the U.S, JOLTS Job Openings improved to 7.08 million. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.22 and a high of 113.34 before closing the day around 113.31 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound slid to its weakest level in nearly 1-1/2 years against the Dollar yesterday as British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal, rekindling doubts about U.K’s departure from the European Union in March. The greenback enjoyed a mild recovery following its steepest weekly drop. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2504 and a high of 1.2757 before closing the day at 1.2560 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart yesterday as oil prices declined and the spread between Canada’s two- and five-year yields turned negative for the first time since September 2007. The five-year yield fell 0.6 basis points below the two-year yield. U.S crude prices were down 2.3 per cent at $51.4 a barrel.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3290 and a high of 1.3414 before closing the day at 1.3395 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continues to slide, falling to the lowest level in a month yesterday. A combination of heightened risk aversion and soft economic data from Australia, the United States and China has taken its toll on the Aussie dollar so far in December. Chinese CPI and PPI also undershot market expectations. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7176 and a high of 0.7224 before closing the day at 0.7185 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.15%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.81%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.45%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.00%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 24 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.32%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 10, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13923 1.14413 1.13491 1.13546 -0.0050
USD/JPY 112.624 113.349 112.221 113.314 0.6590
GBP/USD 1.27124 1.27576 1.25049 1.256 -0.0180
USD/CHF 0.99014 0.99098 0.98664 0.99015 0.0008
USD/CAD 1.33265 1.34143 1.32906 1.33953 0.0078
EUR/JPY 128.326 128.915 128.151 128.686 0.1960
GBP/JPY 143.193 143.683 141.15 142.375 -1.1690
CHF/JPY 113.714 114.454 113.565 114.414 0.5790
AUD/JPY 80.999 81.497 80.691 81.457 0.3680
EUR/GBP 0.89604 0.90855 0.89572 0.90389 0.0090
EUR/CHF 1.12835 1.13058 1.1234 1.12437 -0.0041
GBP/CHF 1.25894 1.26079 1.23769 1.24396 -0.0166

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1230 1.1289 1.1322 1.1382 1.1414 1.1474 1.1506
USD/JPY 111.45 111.83 112.57 112.96 113.70 114.09 114.83
GBP/USD 1.2205 1.2355 1.2457 1.2608 1.2710 1.2860 1.2963
USD/CHF 0.9832 0.9849 0.9875 0.9893 0.9919 0.9936 0.9962
USD/CAD 1.3195 1.3243 1.3319 1.3367 1.3443 1.3490 1.3567
EUR/JPY 127.49 127.82 128.25 128.58 129.02 129.35 129.78
GBP/JPY 138.59 139.87 141.12 142.40 143.66 144.94 146.19
CHF/JPY 112.95 113.26 113.83 114.14 114.72 115.03 115.61
AUD/JPY 80.13 80.41 80.93 81.22 81.74 82.02 82.55
EUR/GBP 0.8841 0.8899 0.8969 0.9027 0.9097 0.9156 0.9226
EUR/CHF 1.1145 1.1189 1.1217 1.1261 1.1288 1.1333 1.1360
GBP/CHF 1.2111 1.2244 1.2342 1.2475 1.2573 1.2706 1.2804

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-11

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週一(12月10日)小幅收漲,美國日內無重大數據公佈。美元指數亞市盤中繼續承壓下跌,錄得日內低點96.36,因上週五美國就業報告不及預期,令投資者猜測美聯儲會放慢加息步伐。此外,華為首席財務長被捕事件,令中美貿易關係變得更為緊張。同時,英國脫歐形式的不確定,令歐洲股市和金融市場不穩,使得英鎊兌美元重挫至日內低點1.25055,創一年半以來的新低位,令美元指數止跌轉漲,重返97關口上方,最終報收97.19。

現貨黃金週一亞市早盤開於1249.40美元/金衡盎司後,金價短暫上漲,錄得日內高點1250.60美元/金衡盎司後轉盤整,金價窄幅波動。歐市盤中金價由盤整轉跌,金價震盪下行。美市盤中金價加大振幅漲跌,多空交鋒激烈,空方終佔優,錄得日內低點1241.30美元/金衡盎司後反彈,終收於1243.90美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收跌1.90美元,或3.60%,報50.82美元/桶。雖然石油輸出國組織已經達成減產協議,但減產幅度並不如預期,同時市場風險情緒依然遭受抑制,令原油等風險資產承壓。

美國股市週一小幅收高,盤中走勢震盪,受科技股上漲扶助,但銀行股重挫,且英國脫歐的不確定性令投資者仍對全球經濟成長感到不安。道瓊工業指數升34.31點,或0.14%,報24,423.26點;標普500指數收高4.64點,或0.18%,報2,637.72點;納斯達克指數上揚51.27點,或0.74%,報7,020.52點。

個股方面,高通(QCOM)上漲2.23%;AMD(AMD)大漲2.72%;Nvidia(NVDA)大漲2.88%;Intel(INTC)大漲2.10%;IBM(IBM)上漲1.50%;美光(MU)下跌1.44%;美國銀行(BAC)下跌2.63%;高盛(GS)下跌0.47%;富國銀行(WFC)下跌2.90%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌1.90%。

日本股市週一下跌,因市場憂心美中貿易摩擦加劇,美股7日大跌,加上日本GDP修正值遜色、創17季來最大減幅,電子零件股受華為因素衝擊慘跌,拖累日經225指數10日開盤後指數隨即跳空大跌近360點、之後跌幅更進一步擴大,終場大跌2.12%或459.18點,收21,219.50點。

個股方面,日本電子零件廠慘跌。村田製作所大跌3.31%、Alps重挫2.72%、TDK大跌3.30%、太陽誘電暴跌4.55%。華為對日本零件廠的年採購額達5,000億日元,華為遭全球圍堵、日企恐無法置身事外,日本電信商軟銀則憂心5G導入恐延遲。軟銀大跌3.51%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收漲,一度從日低112.227一線反彈走高。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標大幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗113關口。上行方面,價格阻力進一步指向113.700一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜回落收跌,一度衝高至1.14413一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐位看向1.12900一線。上行方面,價格阻力位考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜延續收跌,最低探至1.25000一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐位下看1.24000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位指向1.26800一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,高位交投于1245一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1252一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1231一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜回落收跌,最低探至50.52一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價考驗50關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價阻力位依舊看向53.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜探底回升,最低觸及23892一線後反彈收漲。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗25100一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看24000關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收漲,最低觸及20940一線後反彈。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗22000一線,下行支撐位看向21000關口。

 

10 12 月 2018

Daily Market View

 

 Daily Market View

 Monday, December 10, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24413 2634.75 6620.00
-2.24% -2.33% -3.05%

Stocks in the U.S wrapped up their worst week since March on trade war fears, a disappointing jobs report and a flattening yield curve that is often the red flag for an upcoming recession. Oil extended its rebound into a second week after OPEC agreed to reduce production. The S&P 500 Index fell 2.33 percent Friday led by Technology. Utilities outperformed, followed by Energy amid the news of OPEC’s agreement. On a weekly basis, the index dropped 4.6%, its worst setback since March, when the trade war began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.24 percent and 4.5 percent for the week. The NASDAQ fell 3.05 percent, making it the clear underperformer. Technically it executed a Death Cross last week. The other key issue that unnerved investors was the U.S Treasury curve as the 3-year rates exceeded 5-year rates, raising fears of an inverted yield curve. The U.S added 155,000 new jobs last month. While this number significantly missed the 200,000 estimates, unemployment held steady at 3.7 percent.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) 04:30   -0.4%

nov

Switzerland Unemployment Rate 06:45   2.4%

oct

German Trade Balance 07:00   18.4b

oct

U.K Trade Balance 09:30   -£27m

oct

U.K Industrial Production (YoY) 09:30   0.0%

oct

U.K Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 09:30   0.0%

nov

Canada Housing Starts 13:15   205.9k

oct

Canada Building Permits (MoM) 13:30   0.4%

oct

U.S JOLTS Job Openings 15:00   7009
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.24% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Johnson & Johnson, which fell 0.33% or 0.48 points to trade at 145.43 at the close. Meanwhile, Chevron Corp fell 0.36% or 0.42 points to end at 115.49 and Coca-Cola Company was down 0.59% or 0.29 points to 49.09 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 4.40% or 2.13 points to trade at 46.24 at the close. Cisco Systems Inc. declined 4.03% or 1.95 points to end at 46.44 and Microsoft Corporation was down 4.00% or 4.37 points to 104.82.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 3.05% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Domo Inc. which rose 30.52% to 20.40, Uxin Ltd which was up 24.47% to settle at 4.68 and Cronos Group Inc. which gained 21.72% to close at 12.7200. The worst performers were Viveve Medical Inc. which was down 27.42% to 1.3500 in late trade, United Natural Foods Inc. which lost 24.58% to settle at 14.88 and Akorn Inc. which was down 23.79% to 4.26 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil traders are likely to stay focused on global crude supplies in the week ahead, after members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to curb production starting in January. OPEC announced Friday that it will reduce overall production among its members by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first six months of 2019 in an effort to stave off a global glut in supplies and prop up prices. The producer club will curb output by 0.8 million bpd from October levels, while non-OPEC allies contribute an additional 0.4 million bpd of cuts, in a move to be reviewed at a meeting in April. Oil futures jumped sharply on Friday in reaction to the new production cut agreement. West Texas Intermediate crude surged $1.12, or roughly 2.2%, to close at $52.61 a barrel by close of trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, WTI rose about 3.3%. Oil has taken a beating in recent weeks, with prices dropping more than 30% from their highs in early October, as swelling global inventories depressed sentiment.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hit a five-month peak on Friday as the dollar slid following weaker-than-expected U.S jobs data, which added to expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve may go slow on interest rate hikes next year. Spot gold gained 0.7 percent to $1,245.74 per ounce, having hit $1,246.72 per ounce earlier, its highest since July 13. With a rise of nearly 2 percent this week, gold looked set to post its best gain since the week of March 23. U.S gold futures were also 0.6 percent higher at $1,251.30 per ounce. The non-farm payroll data came out lower than expected. It is a negative pick that is causing people to hedge a little bit more in gold and any shorts are probably covering and adding few longs to the market. The dollar eased against a basket of currencies on Friday after data showed U.S job growth slowed in November and monthly wages increased less than expected, suggesting some moderation in economic activity. Interest rate futures suggested traders see not more than one rate increase from the Fed next year, compared with previous expectations for possibly two rate hikes. With increased volatility and geopolitical risk, macro asset allocation is becoming more gold-positive again while we believe much of the dollar’s upward move is now behind us with rate hike expectations dropping. Gold, which is considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has recovered about 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. At this point it looks like the price of gold has a strong foundation at these levels and should remain in a bullish mode the rest of the year. Meanwhile, spot palladium rose 1.2 percent to $1,223.50 per ounce and was set to post its second straight weekly gain. The auto catalyst metal, however, drifted further away from an all-time high of $1,263.56 hit this week. Silver gained 0.7 percent to $14.57 per ounce and was headed for a weekly rise of more than 2 percent.

 

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures firmed for the fifth time in six sessions on Friday on solid weekly export sales data and short-covering ahead of the weekend as the market waited for signs that China may soon resume purchases from the United States. Corn also advanced and wheat climbed to a 5-1/2 week high.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, December 07, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24921 25112 24295 24413 -494
S & P 500 SPM18 2694.25 2709.5 2623 2634.75 -56.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6836.5 6855.75 6594.5 6620 -205.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26259 26303 26004 26072 -82
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21520 21660 21415 21535 145
FTSE 100 FTH18 6783.5 6869 6732.5 6759 -24
Gold GCJ18 1242.9 1252.8 1242.3 1252.3 9.5
Silver SIK18 1454 1470 1450 1468.5 16
Copper HGK18 275 277.5 274.15 275.7 0.9
Crude Oil CLK18 51.73 54.19 50.57 52.7 1.02
Wheat WK18 516 531.75 515 531 15.75
Soybeans SK18 910.25 917.5 907 916 7
Corn CK18 382 385.5 382 385.25 2.75

 

 

DJM18 23284 23790 24101 24607 24918 25424 25735
SPM18 2515.50 2569.25 2602.00 2655.75 2688.50 2742.25 2775.00
NDM18 6263.17 6428.83 6524.42 6690.08 6785.67 6951.33 7046.92
HSH18 25651 25827 25950 26126 26249 26425 26548
NKH18 21168 21292 21413 21537 21658 21782 21903
FTH18 6568.17 6650.33 6704.67 6786.83 6841.17 6923.33 6977.67
GCJ18 1234.97 1238.63 1245.47 1249.13 1255.97 1259.63 1266.47
SIK18 1435.67 1442.83 1455.67 1462.83 1475.67 1482.83 1495.67
HGK18 270.72 272.43 274.07 275.78 277.42 279.13 280.77
CLK18 47.16 48.87 50.78 52.49 54.40 56.11 58.02
WK18 503.33 509.17 520.08 525.92 536.83 542.67 553.58
SK18 899.00 903.00 909.50 913.50 920.00 924.00 930.50
CK18 379.50 380.75 383.00 384.25 386.50 387.75 390.00

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

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