20 12 月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, December 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23312 2504.75 6352.50
+0.95% +0.54% +0.93%

U.S stocks gained earlier in yesterday’s trading session before the outcome of a key policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 193 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 index rose 20 points, or 0.8%. The NASDAQ climbed 48 points, or 0.7%. Investors are expecting the Fed to help assuage brewing anxieties that have underpinned a recent bout of market tumult as the central bank’s interest-rate setting committee. Meanwhile, U.S Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gave investors reason for optimism regarding U.S-China trade relations, when he said the U.S and China will meet in January to broker a trade-war truce, in an interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday. Previously, the Trump administration hadn’t given a specific timetable for face-to-face negotiations. With volume so light this time of year, investors should brace for more volatility. Existing home sales rose 1.9%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.32 million from October to November, according to the National Association of Realtors.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target     0.00%

dec

BOJ Rate Decision     -0.10%

nov

Australia Employment Change 00:30 20.0k 32.8k

nov

Australia Unemployment Rate 00:30 5.0% 5.0%

dec

Bank of England Bank Rate 12:00 0.75% 0.75%

dec

BOE Asset Purchase Target 12:00 435b 435b

dec

U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 13:30 15.5 12.9

dec

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 219k 206k

nov

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) 23:30 0.8% 1.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.49% to hit a new 52-week low. The best performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 0.38% or 0.21 points to trade at 55.86 at the close. Meanwhile, The Travelers Companies Inc. fell 0.12% or 0.14 points to end at 119.16 and International Business Machines was down 0.19% or 0.22 points to 116.43 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 4.55% or 2.17 points to trade at 45.57 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 3.12% or 5.18 points to end at 160.89 and Nike Inc. was down 3.06% or 2.18 points to 68.97.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 2.17%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Marin Software Inc. which rose 78.76% to 6.650, China Automotive Systems Inc. which was up 42.06% to settle at 3.040 and Evine Live Inc. which gained 41.85% to close at 0.558. The worst performers were Surface Oncology Inc. which was down 47.50% to 3.89 in late trade, Biocept Inc. which lost 29.82% to settle at 0.800 and Toughbuilt Industries Inc. which was down 24.00% to 1.14 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose about 3 percent yesterday, recovering somewhat from a sharp sell-off during the previous session, after U.S data showed strong demand for refined products. Sentiment remains negative, however, as investors grapple with weakening demand and worries about oversupply. U.S light crude contract rose $1.44 a barrel to $48.04. The markets slumped on Tuesday, extending a recent run of poor performance. Global benchmark Brent tumbled 5.6 percent on Tuesday, just above a 14-month low reached during the session, while WTI lost 7.3 percent, falling to its lowest level since August 2017. Crude inventories fell by 497,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 14, smaller than the decrease of 2.4 million barrels analysts had expected. The decline was the third consecutive decrease, the U.S Energy Information Administration said. The OPEC and other oil producers including Russia agreed this month to curb output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in an attempt to drain tanks and boost prices.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose to a one-week high yesterday, helped by a weaker U.S dollar and a fall in global stock markets, but moves were limited as investors sought clarity on the path of U.S interest rates as concerns about a slowing global economy deepened. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,247.06 per ounce, having earlier touched its highest since Dec. 10 at $1,250.27, just short of a five-month peak of $1,250.55 hit last week. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,251.30 per ounce. There has been a slight increase in the minority view that the Fed might not raise rates, given the recent weakness in the equity markets. It would be quite a shock if they didn’t increase rates in this week’s meeting. Most of the attention will be on how many more interest rates rises there may be next year. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year at its two-day policy meeting ending today. But weak stock markets and slowing global growth may prompt the central bank to signal a slowdown in rate increases. We have seen quite a broad-based sell-off across many other markets, from equities to other commodity markets, and an increase in risk aversion. In that climate, gold is edging gradually higher towards a multi-months peak. World stock markets tumbled as fears about a slowing global economy gripped investors, while the dollar index slipped 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Gold tends to gain when interest rate hike expectations ease because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, in which it is priced. In euro terms, gold reached its highest since June at 1,100.57 euro an ounce. Gold, considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has risen more than 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. It is also set to post its biggest quarterly gains since March 2017. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent to $14.63.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures edged higher yesterday as the oilseed market awaited signs of further demand from China as part of a trade truce with Washington. Wheat eased after gaining ground on Monday while corn ticked upwards in cautious trading.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 23571 24073 23168 23312 -282
S & P 500 SPM18 2531.75 2590.25 2489.5 2504.75 -32.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6464 6601.5 6301 6352.5 -127.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25847 25935 25798 25919 103
Nikkei 225 NKH18 20985 21100 20805 20935 -170
FTSE 100 FTH18 6639 6723.5 6598 6613.5 -17
Gold GCJ18 1253.6 1261.9 1245.1 1246.4 -6.7
Silver SIK18 1470 1489 1460.5 1465 -4
Copper HGK18 265.45 271.9 265.4 267.5 2.3
Crude Oil CLK18 46.27 48.32 46.26 47.38 1.17
Wheat WK18 531.75 532 521.25 522.5 -9.75
Soybeans SK18 906.5 909.5 898.75 899.5 -7.75
Corn CK18 384.75 384.75 381.5 381.5 -3.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 22057 22613 22962 23518 23867 24423 24772
SPM18 2365.33 2427.42 2466.08 2528.17 2566.83 2628.92 2667.58
NDM18 5934.67 6117.83 6235.17 6418.33 6535.67 6718.83 6836.17
HSH18 25696 25747 25833 25884 25970 26021 26107
NKH18 20498 20652 20793 20947 21088 21242 21383
FTH18 6441.00 6519.50 6566.50 6645.00 6692.00 6770.50 6817.50
GCJ18 1223.57 1234.33 1240.37 1251.13 1257.17 1267.93 1273.97
SIK18 1425.50 1443.00 1454.00 1471.50 1482.50 1500.00 1511.00
HGK18 258.13 261.77 264.63 268.27 271.13 274.77 277.63
CLK18 44.26 45.26 46.32 47.32 48.38 49.38 50.44
WK18 507.75 514.50 518.50 525.25 529.25 536.00 540.00
SK18 884.92 891.83 895.67 902.58 906.42 913.33 917.17
CK18 377.17 379.33 380.42 382.58 383.67 385.83 386.92

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-20

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週三(12月19日)收跌,亞市盤中美元指數位於96.8附近做區間震盪,美市盤中美國公佈 11月成屋銷售年化總數(萬戶)公佈值為532萬戶,高於前值522萬戶和市場預測的520萬戶,美元指數並沒有因此受到提振,因中東傳來消息,特朗普下令從敘利亞全面撤軍。消息傳來之後美元受到打壓下跌,盤中最低來到96.56,緊接著美聯儲公佈利率決定宣佈加息25個基點,將聯邦基金利率目標區間由原本的2.00-2.25%上調至2.25-2.50%,和市場預測相同,美元指數聞訊上漲盤中最高來到97.10,美元指數最終收在97.03。

現貨黃金週三收跌,亞市早盤開於1249.20美元/金衡盎司後,金價位於1249.00美元/金衡盎司左右區間震盪,美市開盤受到美元指數下跌影響,資金紛紛流入黃金,盤中最高來到1257.75美元/金衡盎司,美市盤中美聯儲宣布加息,美元指數受到提振,黃金受到打壓下跌,盤中最低來到1241.50美元/金衡盎司,黃金最終收在1242.85美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收漲1.15美元,或2.49%,報47.37美元/桶。美國能源資訊署(EIA)週三公佈報告顯示,截至12月14日當周,美國原油庫存減少49.7萬桶,低於前值減少的120.8萬桶,雖然美國原油庫存報告整體利空,但美聯儲暗示明年加息次數將減少,從而幫助油價在18日大跌之後收復部分失地。

美國股市週三大幅下挫,此前儘管美聯儲預計明年可能放慢升息步伐,但投資者原本預期聯儲貨幣政策會更偏鴿派,鮑威爾在講話表示,他認為美聯儲不會改變讓資產負債表繼續自動縮減的政策,這使投資者擔心金融環境收緊將令金融市場進一步承壓。道瓊工業指數收挫351.98點,或1.49%,報23323.66點;標普500指數收跌39.2點,或1.54%,報2506.96點;那斯達克指數收低147.08點,或2.17%,報6636.83點。

個股方面,Facebook(FB)股價跌7.25%,為7月來最大百分比跌幅。紐約時報報導,該公司允許一些企業獲得使用者資訊的程度超過披露情況,公司稱,只有在使用者允許的情況下,其他企業才可以獲得使用者資訊。聯邦快遞(FDX)股價重挫12.33%,創10年來最大單日跌幅,之前該公司調降2019年業績預估。美光(MU)股價也大跌7.92%,之前該公司的溫和財測加劇了對行業榮景消散的擔憂。

日本股市週三下跌,因市場靜待美國聯邦公開市場委員會會議結果,加上19日正式掛牌上市的電信大廠軟銀沒蜜月行情,首日表現慘,衝擊投資人信心,也拖累日經225指數19日持續走跌、失守21000點整數關卡,終場跌0.60%或127.53點,收20987.92點。

個股方面,軟銀集團下挫0.91%,SBG旗下電信大廠軟銀19日正式掛牌,惟掛牌首日沒出現蜜月行情。豐田汽車跌0.19%,豐田衝刺電動化車款銷售,力拼2020年銷售量增4成、佔整體新車銷售量比重約1/4。工具機廠DMG森精機大漲2.24%,美中貿易摩擦、導致中國工具機需求失速,森精機傳出將首度把在中國生產的工具機出口至印度販售。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收跌,震蕩交投於112.400一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格進一步考驗112.100一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊指向113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.14379一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位看向1.13500一線。上行方面,價格阻力位進一步考驗1.14200一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收跌,一度衝高至1.26774一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.25000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜衝高回落,一度觸及日高至1257一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向下。後市來看,金價初步阻力位指向1250一線。下行方面,金價支撐位考驗1236一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,低位交投于47一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向上脫離超賣區。後市來看,油價依舊考驗46關口支撐力度。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向50.50一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,盤中一度反彈至24064一線后跳水走低。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標進入超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24000關口。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23000一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收跌,最低探至20525一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21200一線,下行支撐位看向20400一線。