19 12 月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Wednesday, December 19, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23594 2537.00 6479.75
+0.95% +0.54% +0.93%

Stocks rebounded yesterday, recovering some of the steep losses of the prior trading session that sent both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 down more than 2 percent. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9 percent after falling to a new closing low and touching a new intraday low for 2018 on Monday on fears the Federal Reserve is going too far with its rate-hiking plans. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 300 points, led higher by gains in Boeing and Johnson & Johnson. A comeback in technology stocks led the NASDAQ to a 1.2 percent gain as Amazon, Apple and Netflix — which were hit hard on Monday — all traded higher. Facebook stock rallied 3.6 percent while Google-parent Alphabet added 3.1 percent. Also helping sentiment was White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders, who said that the Trump administration wants to avoid a partial government shutdown and has found alternative revenues to build President Donald Trump’s border wall. The Fed is widely expected to hike its benchmark lending rate for a fourth and final time of 2018.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 07:00 3.1% 3.3%

nov

U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) 09:30 2.3% 2.4%

oct

U.K House Price Index (YoY) 09:30 3.3% 3.5%

dec

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 12:00   1.6%

nov

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) 13:30 1.8% 2.4%

nov

U.S Existing Home Sales (MoM) 15:00 -0.4% 1.4%

dec

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 15:30   -1208k

dec

U.S FOMC Rate Decision 19:00 2.50% 2.25%

 

Fed’s Powell Holds Press Conference Following FOMC Decision 19:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.35%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Boeing Co, which rose 3.77% or 11.93 points to trade at 328.06 at the close. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added 2.08% or 3.49 points to end at 171.50 and Nike Inc. was up 1.79% or 1.25 points to 71.15 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Exxon Mobil Corp, which fell 2.76% or 2.04 points to trade at 72.00 at the close. Chevron Corp declined 2.41% or 2.71 points to end at 109.74 and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was down 1.98% or 5.10 points to 252.97.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 0.45%. The top performers were Biocept Inc. which rose 66.28% to 1.140, Marin Software Inc. which was up 30.07% to settle at 3.720 and Toughbuilt Industries Inc. which gained 22.04% to close at 1.55. The worst performers were Regulus Therapeutics Inc. which was down 24.09% to 1.040 in late trade, Dova Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 23.64% to settle at 6.88 and Champions Oncology Inc. which was down 23.04% to 7.3500 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices tumbled yesterday after reports of swelling inventories and forecasts that record U.S and Russian output will hit a market that may see weaker demand if global growth deteriorates as many expect. U.S crude oil fell $2.78, or 5.5 percent to trade at $47.10 a barrel. The session low was $46.97, its weakest since September 2017. World stock markets inched higher as investors looked ahead to whether the U.S Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates much further. Equity markets have had steep declines over the last two months. Investor confidence is deteriorating, with more fund managers expecting global growth to weaken over the next 12 months, the worst outlook in a decade, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s December investor survey showed. Britain’s largest oilfield restarted, increasing supply, the U.S government said output from shale would top 8 million barrels per day this year, and data suggested U.S. crude inventories would rise this week. Crude oil has slid more than 30 percent since early October.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose to a one-week high yesterday, helped by a weaker U.S dollar and a fall in global stock markets, but moves were limited as investors sought clarity on the path of U.S interest rates as concerns about a slowing global economy deepened. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,247.06 per ounce, having earlier touched its highest since Dec. 10 at $1,250.27, just short of a five-month peak of $1,250.55 hit last week. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,251.30 per ounce. There has been a slight increase in the minority view that the Fed might not raise rates, given the recent weakness in the equity markets. It would be quite a shock if they didn’t increase rates in this week’s meeting. Most of the attention will be on how many more interest rates rises there may be next year. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year at its two-day policy meeting ending today. But weak stock markets and slowing global growth may prompt the central bank to signal a slowdown in rate increases. We have seen quite a broad-based sell-off across many other markets, from equities to other commodity markets, and an increase in risk aversion. In that climate, gold is edging gradually higher towards a multi-months peak. World stock markets tumbled as fears about a slowing global economy gripped investors, while the dollar index slipped 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Gold tends to gain when interest rate hike expectations ease because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, in which it is priced. In euro terms, gold reached its highest since June at 1,100.57 euro an ounce. Gold, considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has risen more than 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. It is also set to post its biggest quarterly gains since March 2017. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent to $14.63.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures edged higher yesterday as the oilseed market awaited signs of further demand from China as part of a trade truce with Washington. Wheat eased after gaining ground on Monday while corn ticked upwards in cautious trading.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 23796 23947 23583 23594 -80
S & P 500 SPM18 2557 2577.5 2531 2537 -18.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6491.25 6577.25 6456.5 6479.75 -8
Hang Seng HSH18 25877 26188 25696 25816 -260
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21095 21265 21025 21105 -330
FTSE 100 FTH18 6668.5 6697.5 6616.5 6630.5 -32
Gold GCJ18 1249.5 1254.1 1248.8 1253.1 3.6
Silver SIK18 1472.5 1477.5 1466.5 1469 6
Copper HGK18 274.3 275.2 265.15 265.2 -9.1
Crude Oil CLK18 49.43 49.86 46.08 46.21 -3.22
Wheat WK18 533.25 535.75 529.5 532.25 -3
Soybeans SK18 903.5 911.75 902.75 907.25 3.5
Corn CK18 383.25 386 383 385 1.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23105 23344 23469 23708 23833 24072 24197
SPM18 2473.00 2502.00 2519.50 2548.50 2566.00 2595.00 2612.50
NDM18 6311.00 6383.75 6431.75 6504.50 6552.50 6625.25 6673.25
HSH18 25120 25408 25612 25900 26104 26392 26596
NKH18 20758 20892 20998 21132 21238 21372 21478
FTH18 6517.83 6567.17 6598.83 6648.17 6679.83 6729.17 6760.83
GCJ18 1244.60 1246.70 1249.90 1252.00 1255.20 1257.30 1260.50
SIK18 1453.50 1460.00 1464.50 1471.00 1475.50 1482.00 1486.50
HGK18 251.78 258.47 261.83 268.52 271.88 278.57 281.93
CLK18 41.13 43.60 44.91 47.38 48.69 51.16 52.47
WK18 523.00 526.25 529.25 532.50 535.50 538.75 541.75
SK18 893.75 898.25 902.75 907.25 911.75 916.25 920.75
CK18 380.33 381.67 383.33 384.67 386.33 387.67 389.33

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

19 12 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 19, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar slid lower against a currency basket ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting

·      The Japanese Yen remained supported amid concerns over the outlook for global growth

·      The pound was higher amid an ongoing political deadlock over Britain’s efforts to exit the EU

·      Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz left the door open to a slower pace of interest rate hikes

 

 

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday as investors waited for news from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.14% to 96.41, after an overnight high of 96.63. With the Fed expected to increase rates by 25 basis points for the fourth time this year today, investors will be watching for any new comments on possible policy changes in 2019. Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, have said interest rates are nearing neutral and have become more cautious about FOMC tightening policy amid worry of slowing global growth. U.S. President Donald Trump’s critical comments on the Fed did not help the dollar’s cause either. In a tweet overnight, Trump took another swipe at the Fed, saying it was “incredible” for the central bank to even consider tightening policy given the global economic and political uncertainties. While the Fed remaining on hold would be a significant surprise and a significant U.S Dollar-negative, there is little doubt that equity market volatility is creating some headaches for policymakers. Osborne noted that Fed rate hike expectations have slipped, with markets now pricing in a 70 percent chance of a rate increase, down from a 78 percent chance on Monday. Investor confidence has deteriorated, leading to the gloomiest outlook for the world economy in a decade. The Dollar has replaced technology stocks as the most crowded trade for the first time since January. Risk-off sentiment yesterday lifted the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Yen traders are also focusing on the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Dec. 19-20, at which it is widely expected to keep policy ultra-loose as inflation remains well below its target. The Pound Sterling continues to move off of the recently struck 20-month trough after it was confirmed that the Prime Minister will ask for the British Parliament to approve her latest Brexit proposal next month. The Canadian Dollar fell against the U.S Dollar yesterday.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
07:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Low   3.1% 3.3%
09:30 U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   2.3% 2.4%
09:30 U.K Retail Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Low   3.2% 3.3%
09:30 U.K House Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium   3.3% 3.5%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (DEC 14) Medium     1.6%
13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   1.8% 2.4%
15:00 U.S Existing Home Sales (MoM) (NOV) Medium   -0.4% 1.4%
15:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (DEC 14) Medium     -1208k
19:00 U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (DEC 19) High   2.50% 2.25%
19:00 U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (DEC 19) High   2.25% 2.00%
19:00 U.S Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (DEC 20) High   2.40% 2.20%
19:30 Fed’s Powell Holds Press Conference Following FOMC Decision Medium      
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance (NOV) Medium   -880m -1295m
21:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High   2.8% 2.8%

Euro

The single currency rose yesterday as the dollar weakened, with investors betting that growth concerns will prompt the Fed to slow its pace of interest rate hikes at this week’s meeting. A rout on Wall Street following a spate of weak data globally has strengthened the view that the Fed’s widely-expected rate hike today will usher in a slowdown. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1335 and a high of 1.1401 before closing the day around 1.1359 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair remained heavily offered through the European session yesterday and tumbled to over one-week lows in the last hour. A combination of negative forces kept exerting downward pressure for the third consecutive session. The concerns were evident from the recent fall in the US Treasury bond yields. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.23 and a high of 112.84 before closing the day around 112.50 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound continues to move off of the recently struck 20-month trough after it was confirmed that the Prime Minister will ask for the British Parliament to approve her latest Brexit proposal next month. Analysts caution that Theresa May will be fighting the fight of her life in order to get her deal through to find the backing of members from her own party. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2608 and a high of 1.2703 before closing the day at 1.2638 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar steadied against its U.S counterpart yesterday, underperforming other G10 currencies as oil prices fell and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz left the door open to a slower pace of interest rate hikes. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell to its lowest since September of last year after reports of swelling inventories. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3387 and a high of 1.3494 before closing the day at 1.3462 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained earlier in yesterday’s trading session but reversed almost all the gains to end the day slightly lower. Australian Dollar has been put on the defensive by worries about slowing growth in China. The currency had been sideswiped by disappointing Chinese economic data, which in turn rippled through markets globally sending stocks sharply lower. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7164 and a high of 0.7201 before closing the day at 0.7166 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.16%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.25%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.05%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.13%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 18, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13463 1.14011 1.1335 1.13595 0.0013
USD/JPY 112.819 112.842 112.231 112.508 -0.3050
GBP/USD 1.26188 1.27039 1.2608 1.2638 0.0017
USD/CHF 0.99284 0.99357 0.98978 0.99252 -0.0002
USD/CAD 1.3405 1.34944 1.3387 1.34628 0.0059
EUR/JPY 128.025 128.09 127.619 127.808 -0.2060
GBP/JPY 142.348 142.63 141.907 142.197 -0.1420
CHF/JPY 113.596 113.648 113.231 113.318 -0.2720
AUD/JPY 80.963 81.176 80.633 80.751 -0.2040
EUR/GBP 0.89888 0.9009 0.89612 0.89869 -0.0005
EUR/CHF 1.12668 1.12947 1.2582 1.1277 0.0012
GBP/CHF 1.25292 1.25851 1.25159 1.25448 0.0016

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1263 1.1299 1.1329 1.1365 1.1395 1.1431 1.1462
USD/JPY 111.60 111.92 112.21 112.53 112.82 113.14 113.43
GBP/USD 1.2500 1.2554 1.2596 1.2650 1.2692 1.2746 1.2788
USD/CHF 0.9866 0.9882 0.9903 0.9920 0.9941 0.9957 0.9979
USD/CAD 1.3294 1.3341 1.3402 1.3448 1.3509 1.3555 1.3617
EUR/JPY 127.12 127.37 127.59 127.84 128.06 128.31 128.53
GBP/JPY 141.14 141.52 141.86 142.24 142.58 142.97 143.31
CHF/JPY 112.73 112.98 113.15 113.40 113.57 113.82 113.98
AUD/JPY 79.99 80.31 80.53 80.85 81.07 81.40 81.62
EUR/GBP 0.8915 0.8938 0.8962 0.8986 0.9010 0.9034 0.9058
EUR/CHF 1.3428 1.3005 1.2141 1.1718 1.0854 1.0431 0.9567
GBP/CHF 1.2443 1.2479 1.2512 1.2549 1.2581 1.2618 1.2651

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-19

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週二(12月18日)收跌,亞市盤中區間震盪,錄得日內高點97.17。歐式盤中轉跌,一路下滑,錄得日內低點96.70後反轉上漲。美市盤中因美聯儲將進行為期兩日的利率會議,市場預期美聯儲將加息,使得美國總統特朗普再度呼籲美聯儲停止升息。數據方面,美國11月營建許可年化總數為132.8萬戶,高於前值126.5萬戶,顯示房貸利率走高和勞動力收緊,限制房地產市場發展,且房地產市場的持續疲軟可能是經濟放緩的信號。數據公布後,美元指數持續上漲,最終報收97.06。

現貨黃金週二收漲,亞市早盤開於1245.80美元/金衡盎司後,金價區間震盪,錄得日內低點1244.80美元/金衡盎司後反彈,金價震盪上行。歐市盤中金價延續漲勢,不斷走高,錄得日內高點1250.10美元/金衡盎司後回落。美市盤中金價再反彈,多頭奮力上攻,終收於1249.20美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收跌2.90美元,或5.90%,報46.22美元/桶。美國和俄羅斯產量維持紀錄高位,且雖然主要產油國可以協同進行減產,但各國最終都會以自身利益為主,令原油供應過剩的擔憂日益加重。原油盤中錄得日內低點46.10美元/桶,刷新2017年8月以來新低。

美國股市週二上漲,由於美墨邊境興建圍牆預算問題僵持不下,導致美政府運作可能停擺、油價大幅下跌引發能源股拋售。道瓊工業指數收高82.66點,或0.35%,報23675.64點;標普500指數收高0.22點,或0.01%,報2546.16點;那斯達克指數收漲30.18點,或0.45%,報6783.91點。

個股方面,亞馬遜(AMZN)上漲2.01%;Netflix(NFLX)上漲3.10%;臉書(FB)股價上漲2.48%;Alphabet(GOOGL)上漲1.73%;蘋果(AAPL)上漲1.30%;美國石油工業之王埃克森美孚(XOM)下跌2.76%,雪佛龍(CVX)下跌2.41%;IBM(IBM)上漲0.47%;美光(MU)上漲0.68%。

日本股市週二下跌,因美股17日重挫,加上中國在18日舉行的改革開放40週年紀念日的演說上未提到如何化解中美衝突,拖累日經225指數18日重挫、創低,終場下挫1.82%或391.43點,收21115.45點。

個股方面,日本中小尺寸液晶面板大廠Japan Display Inc重挫3.49%,美中貿易摩擦影響JDI重建之路,傳出若JDI引進陸資、蘋果恐將拒用JDI液晶面板。日本武田藥品工業暴跌8.95%,收購Shire恐讓武田有息負債狂飆,穆迪大砍武田評等。FDK狂飆9.52%。FDK發表IoT用全固態電池,將在12月20日開始送樣。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收跌,最低探至112.247一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格進一步考驗112.200一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,一度探高至1.14000一線上方後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.27044一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.25000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,溫和探高至1250一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,金價阻力位進一步指向1252一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1244一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜延續下跌,最低探至46.10一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,油價考驗46關口支撐力度,跌破將打開更多下行空間。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向50.40一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投於23600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24400一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23400一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜窄幅震蕩,交投於21000關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21500一線,下行支撐位看向20800一線。