18 十二月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Tuesday, December 18, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23674 2555.25 6487.75
-1.02% -1.16% -1.15%

Stocks sank yesterday as investors grew worried that the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates could be too much for the economy and stock market to handle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 250 points on the week’s first day of trading, with losses in UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson offsetting gains in Boeing and Apple. The S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent amid a 2.5 percent loss in utilities and a 1.7 percent loss in real estate investments. The Dow is now more than 11 percent off its 52-week high; the S&P 500 is 12 percent off its record high notched back in September. The tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 1 as Amazon fell 3.1 percent and Microsoft dropped 1.6 percent. All three major U.S indexes closed in correction territory for the first time since March 2016 in the prior trading session. Investors are also on edge ahead of the December meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking arm. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hike its benchmark overnight lending rate for a fourth and final time of 2018 this week.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook 00:00   7.6

dec

RBA Dec. Meeting Minutes 00:30    

dec

Switzerland SECO Dec. 2018 Economic Forecasts 06:45    

dec

German IFO Business Climate 09:00 101.7 102

dec

German IFO Expectations 09:00 98.3 98.7

dec

German IFO Current Assessment 09:00 104.9 105.4

nov

U.S Housing Starts (MoM) 13:30 0.2% 1.5%

nov

U.S Building Permits (MoM) 13:30 -0.4% -0.6%

nov

Japan Trade Balance 23:50 -¥630.0b -¥449.3b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.11% to hit a new 6-months low. The best performers of the session were The Travelers Companies Inc., which fell 0.51% or 0.62 points to trade at 119.93 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co fell 0.82% or 2.62 points to end at 316.13 and Apple Inc. was down 0.93% or 1.54 points to 163.94 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were American Express Company, which fell 4.28% or 4.52 points to trade at 101.18 at the close. Procter & Gamble Company declined 4.00% or 3.87 points to end at 92.77 and Nike Inc. was down 3.63% or 2.63 points to 69.90.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 2.27%. The top performers were Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 51.38% to 0.121, Riot Blockchain Inc. which was up 32.59% to settle at 1.7900 and Calyxt Inc. which gained 23.79% to close at 12.23. The worst performers were Sophiris Bio Inc. which was down 40.29% to 1.230 in late trade, Cancer Genetics Inc. which lost 40.04% to settle at 0.333 and Dova Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 39.16% to 9.01 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday on signs of oversupply in the United States and as investor sentiment remained under pressure from concern over the prospects for global economic growth and fuel demand. U.S light crude fell 88 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $50.32, after briefly dipping below $50 for the first time in two weeks. The contract hit a session high at $51.87 yesterday. U.S crude futures fell after inventories at the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma rose by more than 1 million barrels between Dec. 11 and Dec. 14, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. Traders and market participants closely watch supplies at the hub because it is the delivery point for the futures contract and underpins nearly all other regional crude grades. Some investors doubt planned supply cuts by OPEC and other producers such as Russia will be enough to rebalance markets. OPEC and its allies have agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January, in a move to be reviewed at a meeting in April.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose yesterday as a slide in the dollar made bullion more attractive for holders of other currencies, while some investors took cover as stocks globally slipped into the red ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. Palladium climbed to an all-time high of $1,269.50 on a prolonged deficit in the market and increased speculative interest, with prices trading at a premium to bullion. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,244.91 per ounce. The metal touched its lowest since Dec. 4 at $1,232.39 an ounce on Friday. U.S gold futures were 0.5 percent higher at $1,247.90 per ounce. The dollar slipped ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting ending on Wednesday. Investor focus will be on the central bank’s policy outlook for 2019 and future interest rate hikes. One of the drivers that is pushing gold higher right now is the flight to safety (due to lower equities), along with the dollar being sold-off a bit. Some traders are also positioning themselves so that if the Fed does not raise rates, gold might spike. Weak stock markets and slowing global growth have raised speculation that the Fed will need to pause its tightening cycle or risk harming the U.S economy. Stocks fell on concerns over global growth that sent world equity markets to 17-month lows last week. Markets were also concerned about a possible U.S. government shutdown. Investor sentiment toward gold showed signs of optimism. Speculators switched to a net long position in gold of 10,252 contracts, adding 11,791 contracts in the week to Dec. 11, data showed on Friday. This was the first time gold speculators have held a net long position since July, and the strongest since June. With increased volatility and geopolitical risk, macro asset allocation is becoming more gold-positive again, while we believe much of the dollar’s upward move is now behind us with rate hike expectations dropping. Silver was up 0.7 percent at $14.66 per ounce, while platinum rose 1.2 percent at $796.80 per ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures rebounded more than 1 percent in yesterday’s trading session after a sharp fall in the previous session, as a jump in prices in top exporter Russia improved U.S wheat’s competitiveness on world markets.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, December 17, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24016 24238 23474 23674 -449
S & P 500 SPM18 2594.75 2616.75 2533.5 2555.25 -49.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6598 6655.75 6422.75 6487.75 -133.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26151 26226 26006 26076 41
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21225 21490 21185 21435 120
FTSE 100 FTH18 6782.5 6787.5 6626 6662.5 -72.5
Gold GCJ18 1241.1 1251.9 1239.8 1249.5 8.7
Silver SIK18 1463 1463.5 1462.5 1463 0
Copper HGK18 275.3 275.9 272 274.3 -1.5
Crude Oil CLK18 51.25 51.84 48.99 49.13 -2.17
Wheat WK18 531 537.25 529.75 535.25 5.5
Soybeans SK18 903.25 909 901.75 903.75 3.75
Corn CK18 383.75 385.5 383 383.5 -0.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 22589 23031 23353 23795 24117 24559 24881
SPM18 2437.00 2485.25 2520.25 2568.50 2603.50 2651.75 2686.75
NDM18 6155.42 6289.08 6388.42 6522.08 6621.42 6755.08 6854.42
HSH18 25759 25883 25979 26103 26199 26323 26419
NKH18 20945 21065 21250 21370 21555 21675 21860
FTH18 6435.00 6530.50 6596.50 6692.00 6758.00 6853.50 6919.50
GCJ18 1230.13 1234.97 1242.23 1247.07 1254.33 1259.17 1266.43
SIK18 1461.50 1462.00 1462.50 1463.00 1463.50 1464.00 1464.50
HGK18 268.33 270.17 272.23 274.07 276.13 277.97 280.03
CLK18 45.28 47.14 48.13 49.99 50.98 52.84 53.83
WK18 523.42 526.58 530.92 534.08 538.42 541.58 545.92
SK18 893.42 897.58 900.67 904.83 907.92 912.08 915.17
CK18 380.00 381.50 382.50 384.00 385.00 386.50 387.50

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-12-18

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週一(12月17日)收跌,日內公佈的數據較弱。數據顯示,美國12月紐約聯儲製造業指數為10.9,遠低於前值23.3和預期值20.2。美國12月NAHB房產市場指數為56,低於前值60和預期值61,因缺乏可建土地及建築材料成本增加,使得房屋供給受到抑制,同時貸款成本也提高,減少了潛在的買家。數據公布後,並未對美元指數帶來提振,反而持續下跌,錄得日內低點97.05後,但在收盤前上漲,最終報收97.13。

現貨黃金週一亞市早盤開於1238.70美元/金衡盎司後,金價短暫下挫,錄得日內低點1235.50美元/金衡盎司後轉漲,金價震盪上行。歐市金價延續漲勢,不斷走高。美市多頭加大上攻力度,盤中出現直線拉升,錄得日內高點1247.80美元/金衡盎司後回落,終收於1245.70美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收跌2.23美元,或4.34%,報49.12美元/桶。因市場擔心經濟增長速度加劇放緩,恐拖累原油的需求面表現,且市場對產油國能否嚴格執行減產還存在疑慮,使得油價承壓下跌,不過美元指數大跌為油價帶來了一定支撐。

美國股市週一下跌,由於市場越來越擔心聯準會(Fed)升息計劃可能對經濟和股市造成過大影響,推動S&P500指數創下年內新低。道瓊工業指數收低507.53點,或2.11%,報23592.98點;標普500指數收跌54.01點,或2.08%,報2545.94點;納斯達克指數收跌156.93點,或2.27%,報6753.73點。

個股方面,亞馬遜(AMZN)下跌4.46%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌 1.51%;臉書(FB)股價下跌2.69%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.48%;蘋果(AAPL)下跌 0.93%;美國銀行(BAC)下跌0.04%;高盛(GS)下跌 2.72%;富國銀行(WFC)上揚0.13%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌 1.35%。

日本股市週一上漲,因日經225指數14日暴跌逾400點,吸引低接買盤湧入,也提振日經指數17日反彈走揚,終場漲0.62%或132.05點,收21,506.88點。

個股方面,日本印刷電路板大廠CMK狂崩17.63%亮燈跌停,CMK 14日坦承,在未獲得顧客端同意的情況下,為了趕交期,擅自變更製造工程、生產據點,甚或委由外部企業生產顧客所下的訂單。CMK表示,上述不正當行為恐自十幾年前就已開始。Sony跌0.27%、Panasonic跌0.41%。日本電視廠商明年OLED電視銷售量有望首度突破100萬台,Sony、Panasonic傳出2019年對LGD所下的OLED面板訂單較2018年飆增6成。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收跌,下破113關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格進一步考驗112.400一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向113.100一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜反彈收漲,持穩1.13一線上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能微增,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市看來,價格支撐位依舊看向1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位考驗1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,小幅探高至1.26454一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐位指向1.24700一線。上行方面,價格阻力位依舊考驗1.28000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至1247一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱溫和,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市來看,金價阻力位進一步指向1250一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐位考驗1234一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜破位下跌,失守50關口。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,油價支撐位進一步考驗46一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向51.40一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,刷新近期新低至23463一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24500一線。下行方面,價格支撐位下看23400一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收跌,一度反彈至21490一線后跳水。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力位考驗21500一線,下行支撐位看向20900一線。