26 11 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 26, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Risk aversion drove all of the major currencies lower against the U.S Dollar on Friday

·      For the UK, even if EU leaders approve the agreement PM May still needs to sell it to Parliament

·      Italy’s troubles continue to plague the euro which fell to fresh lows against the greenback

·      The Canadian dollar was hit the hardest although a large part of that was of decline in oil prices

 

The biggest story last week was the meltdown in equities that spilled over to currencies. U.S stocks turned negative for the year after erasing all of its gains. This is significant because less than 2 months ago, the S&P 500 was up about 9%. It lost all of that in a matter of a month, recovered briefly and is now back in the red. As a result risk aversion drove all of the major currencies lower against the U.S. dollar. The Canadian dollar was hit the hardest although a large part of that had to do with the decline in oil prices. The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc were the best performers, which is natural under a risk averse environment while the Australian and New Zealand dollars were the worst. Looking ahead, the last week of November brings a renewed focus on Brexit and trade in the lead up to the EU’s Brexit summit and the G20 meeting. There’s also data on the calendar that could be market moving including Germany’s IFO and unemployment reports, the U.S’ confidence, trade, personal income, personal spending, Q3 GDP revisions, the Fed minutes, New Zealand’s trade balance and Chinese PMIs. Earlier in the week, sterling popped after Prime Minister May managed to secure a deal with the European Union but the agreement does not resolve many of the major issues that put the deal at risk. For the EU, Gibraltar, the Irish backstop and fishing rights are lingering problems that could scuttle the deal. Spain made it clear that they will reject any agreement that leaves them out out of talks involving the status of Gibraltar. Now the UK needs a majority (not all) of the 27 member states to support the agreement but given Spain’s role, the agreement will most likely be amended which could lead to further back and forth to satisfy their concerns. Meanwhile Italy’s troubles continue to plague the euro which fell to fresh lows against the greenback. Last week, the European Commission opened disciplinary measures against Italy for refusing to submit a budget proposal that complies with their rules. EU member states have 2 weeks to agree with the EC’s decision to begin the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) and if they do, the EC will give Italy the opportunity to prepare a response on how they will rein their deficit in and bring it back into compliance with EU rules. Last but not least, the Canadian dollar has been hit hard by the decline in oil prices. Since peaking in the beginning of October, the price of crude has fallen more than 30% with prices dropping to a fresh 1 year low last week.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (NOV) Medium     52.9
09:00 German IFO Business Climate (NOV) Medium   102.3 102.8
09:00 German IFO Expectations (NOV) Medium   99.3 99.8
09:00 German IFO Current Assessment (NOV) Medium   105.6 105.9
09:30 U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase (OCT) Medium     38505
13:30 U.S Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (OCT) Low     0.17
14:00 ECB’s Draghi Speak in European Parliament in Brussels High      
18:30 BOE Governor Carney, former Fed Chairman Greenspan Speak High      
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance (OCT) Medium     -1560m

Euro

The single currency slumped half a percent in Friday’s trading session on signs that economic growth could be slowing across the euro zone with worries about Brexit and Italy’s budget negotiations also weighing on the single currency. Business growth in the euro zone slowed much faster than expected this month. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1326 and a high of 1.1419 before closing the day around 1.1333 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair put in a mixed performance last week before closing higher. The price action was a little skewed last week due to thin trading conditions because of bank holidays in the United States and Japan. The Forex pair started the week under pressure as investors continued to react to relatively flat U.S consumer inflation data. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.64 and a high of 112.99 before closing the day around 112.90 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell sharply against the U.S Dollar on Friday. The British Pound recovered some lost ground against the Euro ahead of the Sunday meeting of EU leaders in the wake of news the UK and the European Commissions had agreed a text on the Political Declaration on future trade negotiations. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2796 and a high of 1.2880 before closing the day at 1.2812 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened on Friday, as a further slide in the price of oil offset domestic data showing above-target inflation and increased retail sales. Canada’s annual inflation rate remained above the central bank’s target of 2 per cent for the ninth straight month in October and retail trade volumes climbed 0.5 per cent in September, data showed.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3182 and a high of 1.3256 before closing the day at 1.3232 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has eased and is on track for its worst weekly performances since early October as a global sell-off in equities took the shine off risk assets. It was down more than one per cent last week. The losses coincided with a global share rout as investors fretted about a possible slowdown in world growth amid policy tightening in the United States and the bitter Sino-US trade war.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7216 and a high of 0.7255 before closing the day at 0.7230 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.64%.

 

Sterling-Yen

 

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.51%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.31%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.12%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 23, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14049 1.14199 1.13262 1.13331 -0.0069
USD/JPY 112.931 112.99 112.641 112.907 -0.0170
GBP/USD 1.28761 1.28808 1.27969 1.28122 -0.0063
USD/CHF 0.99451 0.99784 0.99329 0.99748 0.0026
USD/CAD 1.31898 1.32562 1.31824 1.32324 0.0046
EUR/JPY 128.799 128.896 127.798 127.969 -0.8180
GBP/JPY 145.428 145.505 144.324 144.677 -0.7390
CHF/JPY 113.485 113.628 113.013 113.158 -0.2920
AUD/JPY 81.889 81.949 81.394 81.642 -0.2550
EUR/GBP 0.88548 0.8876 0.8868 0.88424 -0.0011
EUR/CHF 1.13401 1.13525 1.12951 1.13069 -0.0037
GBP/CHF 1.281 1.28204 1.27599 1.27821 -0.0036

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1206 1.1266 1.1300 1.1360 1.1393 1.1453 1.1487
USD/JPY 112.35 112.50 112.70 112.85 113.05 113.20 113.40
GBP/USD 1.2695 1.2746 1.2779 1.2830 1.2863 1.2914 1.2947
USD/CHF 0.9900 0.9917 0.9946 0.9962 0.9991 1.0008 1.0037
USD/CAD 1.3117 1.3150 1.3191 1.3224 1.3265 1.3297 1.3339
EUR/JPY 126.45 127.12 127.55 128.22 128.64 129.32 129.74
GBP/JPY 142.98 143.65 144.17 144.84 145.35 146.02 146.53
CHF/JPY 112.29 112.65 112.90 113.27 113.52 113.88 114.13
AUD/JPY 80.82 81.11 81.37 81.66 81.93 82.22 82.48
EUR/GBP 0.8840 0.8854 0.8848 0.8862 0.8856 0.8870 0.8864
EUR/CHF 1.1226 1.1261 1.1284 1.1318 1.1341 1.1376 1.1399
GBP/CHF 1.2694 1.2727 1.2755 1.2787 1.2815 1.2848 1.2876

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-11-26

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週五攀升,因在西方國家迎來一年一度的“黑五”大促之際,原油市場再度“閃崩”,遭遇了名副其實的“黑五”。加上歐元也遭到拋售潮打壓,由於歐元區日內最新出爐的多個PMI數據全線疲軟,使得歐元/美元急劇下挫,美元指數趁機刷新當週高位一度直逼97.00關口,最高觸及96.99。

現貨黃金週五收跌,亞市早盤開於1227.10美元/金衡盎司後小幅震盪上漲,錄得日內高點1228.40美元/金衡盎司後轉跌。歐市跳水,短線急挫。美市金價繼續走低,錄得日內低點1220.20美元/金衡盎司後反彈,金價震盪上行,終收於1222.80美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五下跌3.45美元,或6.41%,報50.40美元/桶。因市場對需求面憂慮加重,加上石油輸出國組織(OPEC)尚未確定具體的減產方案。同時,市場擔心在下個月的大會上,俄羅斯可能不情願配合OPEC及其減產計劃,且當前尚未能給出具體的條件,進一步打壓油價。

美國股市週五全面收跌,因油價慘跌拖累能源類股走軟,抵銷部分零售類股及健康照護類股的漲勢,且標準普爾500指數更再度進入修正區域。道瓊工業平均指數收跌178.74點,或0.73%,報24,285.95點;標準普爾500指數下跌17.37點,或0.66%,報2,632.56點;納斯達克指數下跌33.27點,或0.48%,報6,938.98點。

個股方面,部分零售類股走揚,其中維多莉亞的秘密(LB)上漲2.04%、Best Buy(BBY)上漲0.74%,但柯爾百貨公司(KSS)下跌3.73%、梅西百貨(M)下跌1.78%、Target(TGT)下跌2.83%。大型製藥股默克(MRK)下跌0.16%、禮來(LLY)上漲0.57%、輝瑞(PFE)上漲0.093%卻相對穩健,因製藥股通常是投資人的避險標的,因為經濟就算衰退,人們還是得用藥。

日本股市週五因勞動感謝日休市一日。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜震蕩微跌,最低觸及112.650一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱溫和,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐位指向112.300一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力考驗113.400一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜大幅收跌,最低探至1.13266一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向下。後市看來,價格支撐位下看1.12000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力指向1.14000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低探至1.27982一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格支撐位進一步考驗1.27000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向1.28500一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅回落,最低探至1220一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱萎靡,雙線黏合,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價初步阻力位依舊指向1234一線。下行方面,金價支撐位考驗1213一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜破位收跌,最低探至50.14一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標依舊超賣。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗50心理關口。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向52.20一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜微幅收跌,窄幅交投於24300一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24600一線。下行方面,價格支撐位依舊看向24000關口。

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-11-23

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週四下跌,亞市盤中美元指數震盪上揚,盤中最高來到96.74,歐市盤中根據歐盟和英國協定草案,歐盟將承認英國的“獨立貿易”政策,歐盟與英國預計將設立自貿區,進行深度監管合作,英鎊受到激勵大漲,美元指數受到承壓,盤中最低來到96.31,美市盤中美元指數震盪上漲,最終收在96.50。

現貨黃金週四上漲,黃金於1225.70美元/金衡盎司開盤後持續震盪,盤中最低來到1224.60美元/金衡盎司,歐市盤中受到英國脫歐即將達成協議,美元指數大跌資金紛紛流入黃金,盤中最高來到1228.80,美市盤中黃金震盪最終收在1227.20。

國際原油週四收跌0.77美元,或1.41%,報53.85美元/桶。因美國原油庫存觸及去年12月來新高,進一步加重了市場對供應過剩問題的擔憂,不過美元走弱部分限制了油價的下行空間。

美國股市週四因感恩節休市1天。

日本股市週四因前日美股普遍走揚、日元趨貶,提振日經指數開盤後走高,不過因3連休前夕、投資人保守,拖累指數於盤中數度翻黑,終場漲0.65%或139.01點,收21,646.55點。

個股方面,資生堂大漲3.67%、Kose飆漲4.49%、松本清大漲3.63%、Pola Orbis Holdings大漲3.67%。 10月份赴日旅客數創歷年同月歷史新高,今年全年有望首度突破3,000萬人大關。日本人力資源服務商Persol Holdings大漲3.93%。日本缺工嚴重,10月份52%企業面臨正職員工不足問題、比重創下歷史新高。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅微跌,窄幅交投於113關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐位依舊指向112.500一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力考驗113.400一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.14327一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐位依舊考驗1.13500一線。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力指向1.14900一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至1.29262一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上。後市看來,價格支撐位考驗1.27700一線。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力位進一步指向1.30關口。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜震蕩微漲,窄幅交投於1227一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,雙線黏合,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,金價初步阻力位指向1234一線。下行方面,金價支撐位考驗1215一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收跌,交投於54關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標於超賣區向下。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗52.20一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向56.30一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,最低探至24286一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24600一線。下行方面,價格支撐位進一步看向24000關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收平,交投於21600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標走平。後市來看,價格支撐考驗21300一線,上方阻力位看向22000關口。

 

 

市場報告                     2018-11-22

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週三下跌,歐市盤中美元指數震盪上揚,盤中最高來到96.87,美市盤中美國公佈上周初請失業救濟金人數(萬人),公佈值為22.4,高於市場預測的21.5和前值的21.6,並有消息指出美聯儲最早可能在明年春季暫停加息週期,使美元指數受到壓力下跌,盤中最低來到96.50,收盤前美元指數震盪上漲最終收在96.71。

現貨黃金週三上漲,黃金於1221.40美元/金衡盎司開盤後持續震盪,盤中最低來到1219.40美元/金衡盎司,歐市盤中受到美元指數上漲影響,黃金盤中最高來到1229.80美元/金衡盎司,美市收盤前黃金震盪收在1225.70美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收漲1.27美元,或2.38%,報54.62美元/桶。美國公佈 EIA・周度原油庫存(萬桶),公佈值為485.1,低於前值的1027.0。雖然原油市場供應過剩問題依然嚴重,同時美國原油庫存報告依然利空,但油價在大跌之後悲觀情緒有所緩解,油價獲得部分支撐。

美國股市週三漲跌不一,其中標普500指數在兩日大跌後收高,由能源股和科技股反彈領漲,但市場在接近收盤時回軟,因蘋果股價在感恩節假期前回吐漲幅。道瓊工業指數收跌0.95點,或0.0039%,報24464.69點;標準普爾500指數上漲8.04點,或0.30%,報2649.93點;納斯達克指數上漲63.43點,或0.92%,報6972.25點。

個股方面,蘋果 (AAPL) 下跌 0.11%,此前傳出最大的 iPhone 組裝廠富士康遭蘋果砍單,計劃明年將削減 29 億美元成本。臉書 (FB) 上揚 1.80 %;Netflix (NFLX) 下跌 1.82 %;亞馬遜 (AMZN) 上漲 1.42 %;Alphabet (GOOGL) 上揚 1.26%。而半導體類股漲跌互見,Nvidia (NVDA) 下跌2.93%;德州儀器(TXN) 下跌0.73%;AMD (AMD) 下跌2.50 %;Intel (INTC) 下跌0.76%;美光(MU) 上漲0.72 % ;IBM (IBM) 上漲1.17%。

日本股市週三開盤後隨即大跌,之後因低接買盤湧入,加上中國上證指數走揚、緩解投資人信心惡化程度,支撐日經指數跌幅收斂,終場跌0.35%或75.58點,收21,507.54點。

個股方面,住友金屬礦山小跌0.22%。住友金屬礦山傳將投資2,000億日元在印尼建廠、生產EV電池原料。軟銀集團上揚0.70%。 SBG旗下規模達10兆日元的軟銀視野基金將對南韓電商龍頭Coupang追加出資20億美元。日本4K電視龍頭廠夏普逆勢大漲3.02%。日本4K電視出貨量連17個月增長,10月大增29%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收漲,重回113關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位指向112.500一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位進一步指向113.400一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.14232一線后收窄升幅。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐位依舊考驗1.13500一線。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力指向1.14700一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜震蕩收跌,窄幅交投於1.27800一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐位考驗1.27000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向1.28600一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,一度逼近1230一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,金價初步阻力位依舊指向1232一線。下行方面,金價支撐位考驗1215一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜反彈收漲,最高探至55.83一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標於超賣區向上。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗52.50一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向56.30一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩微漲,一度反彈至24657一線后基本回吐升幅。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標走平。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24800一線。下行方面,價格支撐位進一步看向24000一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜反彈收漲,最高探至21745一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市來看,價格支撐考驗21200一線,上方阻力位看向22000關口。

 

 

市場報告                     2018-11-21

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週二上漲,歐市盤中美元指數於96.1附近震盪,盤中最低來到96.05,美市盤中因全球股市拋售引發避險買盤,且投資者擔心全球經濟增長放緩,投資者看好美元指數紛紛將資金湧入,美元指數盤中震盪上漲,盤中最高來到96.90,美元指數盤後微幅震盪,最終收在96.82。

現貨黃金週二下跌,黃金於1223.70美元/金衡盎司開盤後持續震盪上漲,盤中最高來到1228.30美元/金衡盎司,美市盤中受到美元指數上漲影響,黃金下跌最低來到1219.60美元/金衡盎司,黃金最終收在1221.35美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收跌3.97美元,或6.93%,報53.35美元/桶。股市暴跌令風險情緒慘遭重創,同時市場擔心經濟放緩將會拖累原油需求表現,而俄羅斯減產態度模棱兩可更加重了市場的悲觀情緒。

美國股市週二再遭拋售,零售,能源,科技等重要板塊無一倖免。此前發布疲弱利潤和財測,增添了對經濟增長的憂慮。道瓊工業指數下跌551.80點,或2.21%,報24465.64點;標準普爾500指數收跌48.84點,或1.82%,報2641.89點;納斯達克指數下跌119.65點,或1.70%,報6908.82點。

個股方面,蘋果(AAPL)受到高盛接連下調目標價格影響,該公司股價重挫4.78%;臉書(FB)上揚0.67%; Netflix(NFLX)下跌1.34%;亞馬遜(AMZN)下跌1.11%; Alphabet( GOOGL)上揚0.29%。金融股亦隨大盤轉跌,摩根大通(JPM)下跌2.15%,高盛(GS)下跌3.47%和美國銀行(BAC)下跌1.37%。而半導體類股多逆勢走高,Nvidia (NVDA)上揚3.03%;德州儀器(TXN)上揚2.35%; AMD(AMD)走高0.52%; Intel(INTC)下跌1.27%;美光(MU)下跌1.93%。

日本股市週二因美股前日下挫,加上日本蘋果概念股慘跌,拖累日經指數開盤後隨即大跌。終場下挫1.09%或238.04點,收21,583.12點。

個股方面,液晶面板供應商Japan Display Inc狂瀉10.26%,村田製作所大跌3.53%,TDK重挫1.92%。蘋果傳出將今年推出的3款iPhone新機訂單全面下修,其中採用 液晶面板的iPhone XR砍單情況尤其嚴重。日產汽車暴跌5.45%,三菱汽車暴跌6.85%。身兼日產,三菱會長職務的Carlos Ghosn遭到逮捕,日產更發新聞稿稱Ghosn作出數項重大不正當行為,將公司資金挪為私人支出。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收漲,最低觸及112.290一線后反彈走高。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐位依舊指向112關口。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向112.800一線,關鍵阻力位於113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低探至1.13575一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標拐頭向下。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐位考驗1.13500一線,跌破則進一步指向1.12000一線。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力指向1.14700一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收跌,最高探至1.28815一線后回落。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐位考驗1.27200一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向1.29000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,最高觸及1228一線后承壓回落。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價初步阻力位指向1232一線。下行方面,金價支撐位依舊考驗1215一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜大幅收跌,刷新新低至52.76一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗52.00關口。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向55.20一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,最低探至24353一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,價格初步阻力位考驗24800一線。下行方面,價格支撐位進一步看向24000一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,小幅探低至21170一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標向下延伸逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格支撐考驗21000一線,上方阻力位看向21700一線。

 

 

20 11 月 2018

Daily Market View

Tuesday, November 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25028 2696.25 6671.75
-1.56% -1.66% -3.03%

Stocks retreated sharply lower yesterday, with shares of technology and internet-related companies dragging the market lower. The main equity benchmarks saw losses accelerate in morning trade after a report showed home-builders’ confidence plummeted in November. U.S financial markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The NASDAQ led the markets lower, closing down 219.4 points, or 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 395.8 points, or 1.6%, and the S&P 500 index retreated 45.5 points, or 1.7%. Last week, the Dow posted a weekly decline of 2.2%, the S&P 500 index declined by 1.6% while the NASDAQ shed 2.2%. Investor anxiety, evidenced by last week’s declines, continued Monday, following a report on home-builder confidence that showed sector executives less upbeat than at any point in more than two years. Trade issues have been a key driver of volatility, as investors consider the possibility that U.S. tariff rates on a swath of Chinese goods could rise from 10% to 25% in January, as they will under current policy, absent a resolution.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 00:30    

oct

Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) 07:00   3.5%

oct

Switzerland Swiss Watch Exports (YoY) 07:00   -6.8%

oct

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 07:00 3.3% 3.2%

 

Australia RBA’s Lowe gives speech in Melbourne 08:20    

 

BOE’s Carney, Haldane, Cunliffe and Saunders Testify in London 10:00    

oct

U.S Housing Starts (MoM) 13:30 2.4% -5.3%

oct

U.S Building Permits (MoM) 13:30 -0.8% -0.6%

oct

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) 23:30   -0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.56% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Pfizer Inc., which rose 1.54% or 0.67 points to trade at 44.18 at the close. Meanwhile, The Travelers Companies Inc. added 1.36% or 1.75 points to end at 130.52 and Johnson & Johnson was up 1.19% or 1.74 points to 147.73 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 4.47% or 15.01 points to trade at 320.94 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 3.96% or 7.67 points to end at 185.86 and Visa Inc. was down 3.87% or 5.42 points to 134.76.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 3.03%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Cesca Therapeutics Inc. which rose 51.32% to 0.4600, Akers Biosciences Inc. which was up 42.28% to settle at 1.750 and Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which gained 25.69% to close at 6.410. The worst performers were Arcimoto Inc. which was down 21.77% to 2.30 in late trade, Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 18.47% to settle at 0.901 and Champions Oncology Inc. which was down 17.89% to 10.1900 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices rose in choppy trade yesterday, under pressure from growing supply but supported by a reported drawdown of U.S oil inventories, potential EU sanctions on Iran and possible OPEC production cuts. U.S futures ended yesterday’s session 68 cents higher at $56.76, after dropping as far as $55.08, near last week’s one-year low. Traders said futures pared losses when energy information provider Genscape reported that crude inventories fell in the latest week. EU foreign ministers endorsed a French government decision to sanction Iranian nationals accused of a bomb plot in France, three diplomats said. The United States has granted waivers to some of Iran’s oil customers. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, is pushing for the group and its partners to reduce output by 1 million to 1.4 million barrels per day to prevent a build-up of unused fuel. U.S. crude stockpiles have grown for eight straight weeks, and data last week showed inventories swelled by the most in more than a year.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold inched up yesterday as the dollar fell, but the metal stayed in a tight range as investors held off on big moves ahead of the U.S Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Spot gold was 0.2 percent higher at $1,224.13 per ounce after hitting a one-week high of $1,225.29 in the previous session. U.S gold futures settled up $2.30, or 0.2 percent, at $1,225.30. The dollar fell to two-week lows after Federal Reserve officials’ comments about the U.S. economy suggested the central bank may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. There has been a lot of back and forth language (on) whether or not the Federal Reserve will implement a neutral interest rate or will they take it above neutral, temporarily. Markets are waiting for a little more clarity on (a possible) December rate hike as well as the outlook for 2019. Gold is taking a sideways approach in this environment. Trading volumes are expected to remain subdued before Thanksgiving. I expect prices to consolidate around the $1,220 level throughout the remainder of the week. There is not a lot of news action in the market. We are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates at the next meeting in December. Most likely that will keep gold from getting above the recent highs. Higher rates dampen the appeal of gold, which pays no interest and incurs costs to store and insure. Indicative of investor sentiment towards bullion, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.2 percent to their lowest in a week on Friday. Hedge funds and money managers boosted their net short position in gold to the highest in five weeks. Palladium fell 1.4 percent to $1,160.70 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $1,185.40 in the previous session. Silver rose 0.2 percent to $14.43 an ounce.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell 2.1 percent yesterday, hitting their lowest since Nov. 8, as a lack of consensus at a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders cooled hopes of Washington and Beijing resolving a trade dispute that has disrupted U.S soybean exports to China. Wheat prices also fell sharply, shedding 1.7 percent as investors continued to wait for an upturn in U.S exports.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, November 19, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25384 25490 24888 25028 -416
S & P 500 SPM18 2732.75 2748 2681.5 2696.25 -45.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6874.75 6933.75 6632 6671.75 -222
Hang Seng HSH18 26080 26373 26063 26284 173
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21685 21850 21620 21840 205
FTSE 100 FTH18 7017 7064.5 6963.5 6989 -34
Gold GCJ18 1223.7 1226 1218.3 1224.5 1.6
Silver SIK18 1438 1438 1436 1436.5 0
Copper HGK18 277.65 280.9 276 279.9 -0.3
Crude Oil CLK18 57.26 57.54 55.24 57.35 0.69
Wheat WK18 506.25 507 495.75 498.5 -8
Soybeans SK18 890.25 891.25 871 874 -17.5
Corn CK18 364.5 366 361 362 -2.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24179 24533 24781 25135 25383 25737 25985
SPM18 2602.67 2642.08 2669.17 2708.58 2735.67 2775.08 2802.17
NDM18 6256.17 6444.08 6557.92 6745.83 6859.67 7047.58 7161.42
HSH18 25797 25930 26107 26240 26417 26550 26727
NKH18 21460 21540 21690 21770 21920 22000 22150
FTH18 6845.83 6904.67 6946.83 7005.67 7047.83 7106.67 7148.83
GCJ18 1212.17 1215.23 1219.87 1222.93 1227.57 1230.63 1235.27
SIK18 1433.67 1434.83 1435.67 1436.83 1437.67 1438.83 1439.67
HGK18 272.07 274.03 276.97 278.93 281.87 283.83 286.77
CLK18 53.58 54.41 55.88 56.71 58.18 59.01 60.48
WK18 482.58 489.17 493.83 500.42 505.08 511.67 516.33
SK18 846.00 858.50 866.25 878.75 886.50 899.00 906.75
CK18 355.00 358.00 360.00 363.00 365.00 368.00 370.00

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-11-20

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週一下跌,亞市盤中美元指數震盪,盤中最高來到96.57,美市盤中受到上周美聯儲官員意外發表偏鴿派言論,且越來越多的人預期美國經濟增長或已見頂,美元承壓下滑,盤中最低來到96.13,盤後美元指數震盪最終收在96.20。

現貨黃金週一上漲,黃金於1221.40美元/金衡盎司開盤後持續震盪下跌,盤中最低來到1217.75美元/金衡盎司,美市盤中美元指數大幅下跌因此提振黃金上揚,美金盤中最高來到1224.90美元/金衡盎司,盤後黃金震盪最終收在1223.65美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收漲0.64美元,或1.13%,報57.32美元/桶。俄羅斯減產態度存在不確定性令原油漲勢受阻,不過市場依然預期下月政策會議上石油輸出國組織(OPEC)將會如期減產,因此原油多頭信心有所提振。

美國股市週一收低,因投資者拋售蘋果,互聯網和其他科技股,進一步挫傷對科技股的信心,科技股之前帶動了持續一段長時間的牛市行情。道瓊工業指數下跌395.78點,或1.56%,報25017.44點;標準普爾500指數收跌45.54點,或1.66%,報2690.73點;納斯達克指數下跌219.40點,或3.03%,報7028.47點。

個股方面,尖牙股全面陷入熊市。蘋果 (AAPL) 下跌 3.96%;臉書 (FB) 下跌 5.72%, Netflix (NFLX) 下跌 5.45 %;亞馬遜 (AMZN) 下跌 5.09 %;Alphabet (GOOGL) 下跌 3.82 %。此外,半導體類股 Nvidia (NVDA) 暴跌 12.00%;AMD (AMD) 暴跌 7.50%;Intel (INTC) 下跌 1.70 %。

日本股市週一因半導體股回穩,使得日經指數全場遊走平盤之上,終場收高0.65%,或140.82點,收21,821.16點。

個股方面,東京威力科創終場勁揚3.61%,半導體測試設備供應商Advantest收高2.22%,高純度矽晶圓製造商Sumco上漲3.63%。另一方面,銀行,保險類股指數受美國公債殖受率下滑影響而走跌。聯準會(FED)官員上週五表示,美國利率已接近中性水平,暗示升息循環可能離終點不遠了。三井住有金融集團收跌2.11%,三菱日聯金融集團下滑1.90%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,進一步遠離113關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市看來,價格支撐位進一步指向112關口。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向112.800一線,關鍵阻力位於113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續收漲,持穩1.14一線上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位考驗1.13500一線。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力指向1.15000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜震蕩收漲,交投於1.28400一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐位考驗1.27400一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位依舊指向1.29600一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,交投於1220一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標走平。後市來看,金價初步阻力位依舊指向1235一線。下行方面,金價支撐位考驗1215一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜基本收平,最低觸及55.26一線后全數收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標于超賣區向上延伸。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗55.20一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向58.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜回落收跌,一度失守25000關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步阻力位進一步考驗25500一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位看向24700一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜沖高回落,最高觸及21915一線后跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格支撐考驗21300一線,上方阻力位看向21900一線。

 

 

19 11 月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Monday, November 19, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25444 2742.00 6839.75
+0.49% +0.22% -0.15%

U.S stocks closed mostly higher Friday after comments from President Donald Trump once again sparked hopes that a trade dispute with China could be resolved in the near term. But the NASDAQ bucked the trend to finish lower as a decline in chip maker shares, led by Nvidia Corp., dented sentiment in the technology sector. The Dow Jones climbed 123.95 points, or 0.5% and the S&P 500 index rose 6.07 points, or 0.2%. The NASDAQ shed 11.16 points, or 0.2%. For the week, the Dow fell 2.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, while the NASDAQ declined 2.2%. Trump expressed guarded optimism over U.S.-China trade ties, telling reporters that it may not be necessary to add new tariffs or raise existing ones on Chinese imports, and that he doesn’t want to “put China in a bad position.” Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet at the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires later this month. Uncertainties around tariff spats have taken center stage this week and the vacillating narratives around progress in negotiations continue to whipsaw equity benchmarks.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

U.K Rightmove House Prices (YoY) 00:01   0.9%

 

BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 1~3 Years 01:10    

 

BOJ Kuroda speaks at EuroPlus in Tokyo 03:30    

sep

Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) 09:00   23.9b

nov

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits 09:00   475.6b

sep

Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) 10:00   2.5%

nov

U.S NAHB Housing Market Index 15:00 67 68

 

U.S Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Q&A in the Bronx 15:45    

nov

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 22:30   119.8
 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.49%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones were The Travelers Companies Inc., which rose 2.53% or 3.18 points to trade at 128.77 at the close. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated added 2.33% or 6.17 points to end at 271.11 and McDonald’s Corporation was up 2.20% or 4.03 points to 187.59 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 1.86% or 1.85 points to trade at 97.69 at the close. Boeing Co declined 1.65% or 5.62 points to end at 335.95 and Visa Inc. was down 1.17% or 1.66 points to 140.18.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index declined 0.15%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were TESARO Inc. which rose 31.48% to 34.96, EMC Insurance Group Inc. which was up 30.26% to settle at 31.25 and The Dixie Group Inc. which gained 15.98% to close at 0.980. The worst performers were Rewalk Robotics Ltd which was down 45.45% to 0.24 in late trade, Limbach Holdings Inc. which lost 27.46% to settle at 6.05 and Euroseas Ltd which was down 25.45% to 1.230 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil ended slightly firmer after volatile trading on Friday, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would agree to cut output next month, though prices fell for the sixth straight week amid global oversupply concerns. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia is keen for the major producers to cut output by about 1.4 million barrels per day, around 1.5 percent of global supply, to support the market, sources told Reuters this week. But other producers, including Russia, have been reluctant to agree to a cut. U.S. crude settled unchanged at $56.46 a barrel after trading between $55.89 and $57.96. The contract, which had its steepest one-day loss in more than three years on Tuesday, fell 5.6 percent in the week, also its sixth straight weekly decline.  After Tuesday’s sharp fall, the market was due for a slight correction, and was now stabilizing. OPEC ministers meet on Dec. 6 in Vienna to decide on production policy for the next six months amid a growing surplus in world markets.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose as much as 1 percent on Friday as the dollar fell after U.S Federal Reserve officials made cautions comments that fed doubt about the outlook for interest rate hikes, while palladium hit a record high driven by worries about short supplies. Spot gold rose 0.7 percent to $1,221.04 an ounce. The session high was the highest since Nov. 8 at $1,225.29. Gold was on track to gain about 1 percent this week. U.S gold futures gained 0.5 percent to $1,221.50. Two Fed officials cautioned that global economic growth was slowing and the dollar fell to one-week lows against a basket of major currencies, making bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies. When you get people talking about the economy slowing down, they may not raise rates so quickly or as aggressively and that is bearish for the dollar. Further support for gold came from weaker global stock markets and lower U.S. Treasury yields. A weaker dollar and lower yields are pretty much tailor made to benefit gold. Palladium climbed 1.7 percent to $1,176.70 an ounce, up more than 5 percnt since the start of the week. The metal hit a record high of $1,185.40 during the session, within a whisker of parity with gold for the first time in 16 years. The market is in a big deficit. There is a lot of funds interest in palladium because the funds like to buy something when it’s moving, but the supply is of concern now. Used mainly in emissions-reducing auto catalysts for vehicles, palladium, the only precious metal on track for an annual gain, was also helped by speculation Beijing may provide a stimulus to Chinese auto markets. Car dealers in the world’s biggest car market have been pushing for Beijing to support the sector. Silver rose 0.3 percent at $14.33 an ounce, on course for a weekly gain of over 1 percent. Copper was set to end the week 2.5 percent higher as signs of supply tightness supported prices, but worries about the outcome of the U.S.-China trade dispute limited gains.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures ended higher on Friday after rebounding on President Donald Trump’s comments that his administration may not have to impose further tariffs on China, the world’s biggest soybean buyer. Wheat added to early advances on Friday.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, November 16, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25313 25502 25093 25444 131
S & P 500 SPM18 2731.75 2748.75 2708.5 2742 6.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6876 6912 6805.75 6893.75 -22.25
Hang Seng HSH18 26119 26187 25784 26111 72
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21860 21870 21630 21635 -170
FTSE 100 FTH18 7061.5 7087.5 6961 7023 -67
Gold GCJ18 1213.6 1225.7 1213.4 1222.9 9.3
Silver SIK18 1425.5 1438.5 1421 1436.5 11
Copper HGK18 274.35 280.25 273.3 280.2 5.7
Crude Oil CLK18 56.75 58.13 56.08 56.66 -0.09
Wheat WK18 505 508.25 502.5 506.5 2
Soybeans SK18 889.25 894.5 881.25 891.5 2.5
Corn CK18 367 368.5 363 364.5 -2.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24782 24937 25191 25346 25600 25755 26009
SPM18 2677.17 2692.83 2717.42 2733.08 2757.67 2773.33 2797.92
NDM18 6722.75 6764.25 6829.00 6870.50 6935.25 6976.75 7041.50
HSH18 25465 25624 25868 26027 26271 26430 26674
NKH18 21313 21472 21553 21712 21793 21952 22033
FTH18 6833.67 6897.33 6960.17 7023.83 7086.67 7150.33 7213.17
GCJ18 1203.33 1208.37 1215.63 1220.67 1227.93 1232.97 1240.23
SIK18 1408.00 1414.50 1425.50 1432.00 1443.00 1449.50 1460.50
HGK18 268.63 270.97 275.58 277.92 282.53 284.87 289.48
CLK18 53.73 54.91 55.78 56.96 57.83 59.01 59.88
WK18 497.50 500.00 503.25 505.75 509.00 511.50 514.75
SK18 870.42 875.83 883.67 889.08 896.92 902.33 910.17
CK18 356.67 359.83 362.17 365.33 367.67 370.83 373.17

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-11-19

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週五下跌,亞市盤中美元指數震盪盤中最高來到97.12,美市盤中因美聯儲副主席克拉裡達稱美聯儲政策正在越來越接近中性利率水準,保持中性利率水準“是合理的”,這令市場開始重新思考美聯儲加息前景,美元指數大幅下跌盤中最低來到96.40,收盤前美元指數小幅震盪最終收在96.43。

現貨黃金週五上漲,黃金於1212.60美元/金衡盎司開盤後持續震盪,美市盤中因美聯儲副主席克拉裡達的言論讓市場重新思考美聯儲加息前景,美元指數大幅下跌因此提振黃金上揚,美金盤中最高來到1224.95美元/金衡盎司,黃金最終收在1221.60美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五收漲0.14美元,或0.25%,報56.68美元/桶。市場普遍預期石油輸出國組織(OPEC)將會很快實施減產行動,這為原油價格帶來有效支撐,但考慮到美國原油產量仍在攀升,市場供應過剩問題依然嚴重,因此油價的反彈幅度較為受限。

美國股市週五標普500指數和道瓊工業指數收高,因此前美國總統特朗普稱,美國可能不必對中國採取進一步關稅行動。而英偉達(NVDA)下跌拖累納斯達克指數收低。道瓊工業指數上漲123.95點,或0.49%,報25413.22點;標準普爾500指數收漲6.07點,或0.22%,報2736.27點;納斯達克指數下跌11.16點,或0.15%,報7247.87點。

個股方面,芯片製造商英偉達急挫18.76%,此前該公司指出,加密貨幣採礦業務下滑是其銷售下降的原因.AMD與美光股價分別下跌3.86%與1.18%.Facebook Inc(FB)下跌3.0%, 因市場再度擔憂該公司可能面臨監管審查。百貨商店運營商Nordstrom Inc(JWN)公佈季度同店銷售低於預期,且報告和一項信用卡問題有關的支出,拖累股價暴跌13.63%。

日本股市週五因半導體與工具機類股遭遇大亂流,拖累日經指數終場收低0.57%,或123.28點,收21,680.34點。

個股方面,東京威力科創(Tokyo Electron)重挫4.26%,半導體測試設備供應商Advantest慘摔7.56%。有鑑於輝達本季財測黯淡,採用輝達晶片的任天堂遭質疑遊戲主機動能下滑,股價跳跌9.10%。無塵室自動化系統供應商大幅收低4.64%,輝達大股東軟銀也遭殃,收跌3.37%。此外,中國商務部已對日本工業機器人大廠發那科(Fanuc的 ),以及其它四家工具機製造商包含Okuma,兄弟工業等啟動反傾銷調查,發那科終場收跌1.95%,Okuma下挫3.60%,兄弟工業收低1.16%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收跌,下破113關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱顯現,雙線死叉,RSI指標大幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐位進一步指向112.300一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位指向113關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜大幅收漲,站上1.14一線上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,雙現金叉,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐位考驗1.13500一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力指向1.14800一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.28760一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐位考驗1.27400一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位依舊指向1.29600一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜延續收漲,重回1220一線上方。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,金價初步阻力位進一步指向1235一線。下行方面,金價支撐位考驗1215關口。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜震蕩收平,最高觸及58.14一線后回吐升幅。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標于超賣區向上。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗55.20一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向58.50一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收漲,最低觸及25095一線后反彈走高。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格初步阻力位進一步考驗25800一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位看向25000關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,最低觸及21490一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格支撐考驗21500一線,上方阻力位看向22000關口。

 

 

16 11 月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Friday, November 16, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25313 2735.50 6916.00
+0.82% +0.96% +1.63%

U.S equities rebounded on reports that the U.S-China trade picture is brightening. The pound plunged as the Brexit process threw the U.K government into turmoil. The dollar was little changed. Industrials surged earlier yesterday, sending the S&P 500 to session highs, after reports that trade negotiators were increasing efforts to reach an accord before the G20 summit later this month. Technology, materials and energy stocks also reacted positively to the news. Crude extended Wednesday’s rebound from a record losing streak. Treasuries jumped. For all the worries assailing investors — on top of Brexit is the ongoing trade dispute and Italian budget stress — they are at least receiving a steady message from the U.S central bank. In a question-and-answer session late Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell played down recent turbulence in equities, saying volatility was only one of many factors that board members take into account when setting policy. Emerging-market shares rallied and their currencies strengthened.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) 07:00   3.5%

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt 08:30    

oct

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 10:00 2.2% 2.1%

sep

Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 13:30 0.1% -0.4%

oct

U.S Industrial Production (MoM) 14:15 0.2% 0.3%

oct

U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production 14:15 0.2% 0.2%

nov

U.S Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 16:00 10 8

nov

Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 18:00   1081

sep

U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows 21:00   $131.8b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.83%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Cisco Systems Inc., which rose 5.50% or 2.44 points to trade at 46.77 at the close. Meanwhile, 3M Company added 3.46% or 6.85 points to end at 204.91 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 3.45% or 4.32 points to 129.42 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 1.96% or 1.99 points to trade at 99.54 at the close. Home Depot Inc. declined 1.41% or 2.54 points to end at 177.36 and Nike Inc. was down 1.16% or 0.87 points to 74.33.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 1.72%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were AGM Group Holdings Inc Class A which rose 46.14% to 35.98, Uniqure NV which was up 35.66% to settle at 30.93 and SITO Mobile Ltd which gained 24.99% to close at 1.200. The worst performers were CDTi Advanced Materials Inc. which was down 58.89% to 0.5920 in late trade, Remark Holdings Inc. which lost 40.24% to settle at 1.960 and Revolution Lighting Technologies which was down 39.28% to 0.8501 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil futures rose yesterday, steadying after this week’s steep losses as fuel stockpile declines in the United States helped offset concerns about a potentially oversupplied market next year. Prices have also been supported by OPEC signaling possible output cuts in 2019. U.S crude futures were up 19 cents at $56.44. Prices pared gains after data from the U.S Energy Information Administration showed crude inventories jumped 10.3 million barrels in last week, the biggest weekly build since February 2017. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected an increase of 3.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell 1.4 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles drew down by 3.6 million barrels, the EIA data showed. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, is considering a cut of up to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year to avoid the kind of build in global inventories. Oil prices shrug the (EIA) data off so far. One explanation could be that a substantial production cut by OPEC becomes more likely.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hit a near one-week peak yesterday as investors sought cover from market turmoil after Britain’s long-awaited draft agreement to leave the European Union was thrown into chaos, helping the metal hold its ground against a rising dollar. British Prime Minister Theresa May battled to save a draft divorce deal with the EU after her Brexit secretary and other ministers quit in protest and Eurosceptic lawmakers stepped up efforts to topple her. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,214.79 per ounce after touching its highest since Nov. 9 at $1,216.27 earlier in the session and moving away from a one-month low of $1,195.90 hit on Tuesday. U.S gold futures settled up $4.90, or 0.40 percent, at $1,215 per ounce. Uncertainty around Brexit is the biggest factor right now. It’s becoming top of the news again. People are running to the safety of the hard assets such as commodities including gold and crude, and also the dollar. If gold can hold above the $1,209 level, we could see it rise to $1,235. The dollar held its gains versus a basket of currencies as data showed a stronger-than-expected increase in domestic retail sales in October. The currency has emerged as a dominant safe-haven asset this year, denting the appeal for gold, which has fallen 11 percent from an April peak, against the backdrop of a U.S-China trade row and rising U.S interest rates. Geo-political risk remains high, it should support gold and lead to gains into year-end and in 2019. This is seen in the political turmoil today and increased uncertainty regarding the outlook for Brexit. The trade war shows signs of possibly easing, with U.S President Donald Trump expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at a G20 summit in Argentina this month. Silver was up 1.3 percent at $14.31 per ounce. It fell to $13.85 in the previous session, a level last seen on Jan. 21, 2016. Base metal prices fell in the last one week after strong US PPI (Producer Price Index) data and on fears of rising US interest rates in December.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures rose for a second session yesterday as fresh export sales, slower than expected harvesting and hopes that Washington and Beijing will resume trade talks helped the oilseed market to recoup some of its recent losses.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, November 15, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25074 25347 24780 25313 271
S & P 500 SPM18 2701.75 2736.75 2671 2735.5 37
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6780 6920.25 6711.75 6916 147.75
Hang Seng HSH18 25843 26131 25550 26039 492
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21725 21825 21610 21805 -15
FTSE 100 FTH18 7033.5 7092 6972.5 7090 84.5
Gold GCJ18 1211.4 1216.7 1206.9 1213.6 2.4
Silver SIK18 1409.5 1431.5 1406 1425.5 16
Copper HGK18 271.15 276.6 270.3 274.5 3.45
Crude Oil CLK18 56.21 57.44 55.77 56.75 0.58
Wheat WK18 503.25 508.75 503 504.5 1.75
Soybeans SK18 883.5 897 883.5 889 5.75
Corn CK18 366.5 371.25 366.5 367 0.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24379 24580 24946 25147 25513 25714 26080
SPM18 2626.33 2648.67 2692.08 2714.42 2757.83 2780.17 2823.58
NDM18 6569.92 6640.83 6778.42 6849.33 6986.92 7057.83 7195.42
HSH18 25101 25326 25682 25907 26263 26488 26844
NKH18 21453 21532 21668 21747 21883 21962 22098
FTH18 6891.50 6932.00 7011.00 7051.50 7130.50 7171.00 7250.00
GCJ18 1198.30 1202.60 1208.10 1212.40 1217.90 1222.20 1227.70
SIK18 1385.00 1395.50 1410.50 1421.00 1436.00 1446.50 1461.50
HGK18 264.70 267.50 271.00 273.80 277.30 280.10 283.60
CLK18 54.20 54.98 55.87 56.65 57.54 58.32 59.21
WK18 496.33 499.67 502.08 505.42 507.83 511.17 513.58
SK18 869.17 876.33 882.67 889.83 896.17 903.33 909.67
CK18 360.50 363.50 365.25 368.25 370.00 373.00 374.75

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.