03 10 月 2018

Daily Market View

     

Daily Market View

Wednesday, October 03, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26803 2928.50 7652.50
+0.46% -0.04% -0.47%

U.S stocks ended an up-and-down session mostly lower as Amazon.com wage increase pressured retailers and small caps slumped to a two-month low as trade tensions eased. The dollar, Treasuries and commodities advanced. The S&P 500 Index edged lower. Retailers led declines after Amazon raised the minimum wage for all its employees. Small caps remained under pressure after the new NAFTA deal, while Boeing Co. and Caterpillar Inc. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a fresh record. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell shrugging off inflation worries added to pressure on equities. Amazon’s wage move raised the specter that competitors will have to make a similar move, threatening profit margins at a time when input costs have also been on the rise. Otherwise, trade largely set the tone, with multinationals continuing to benefit from a reduction in tension and domestically focused companies under pressure. Meanwhile, political drama in Washington still swirls around President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

Nikkei Japan PMI Composite 00:30   52

sep

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI 08:00 54.2 54.2

sep

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI 08:30 54 54.2

aug

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) 09:00 1.7% 1.1%

sep

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00    

sep

U.S ADP Employment Change 12:15 185k 163k

sep

Markit US Composite PMI 13:45   53.4

sep

U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite 14:00 58 58.5

sep

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 14:30   1852k
 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% to hit a new all-time high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Intel Corporation, which rose 3.55% or 1.65 points to trade at 48.10 at the close. Meanwhile, Caterpillar Inc. added 1.67% or 2.54 points to end at 154.82 and 3M Company was up 1.66% or 3.52 points to 215.71 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 2.00% or 1.69 points to trade at 82.77 at the close. Home Depot Inc. declined 1.37% or 2.85 points to end at 204.75 and McDonald’s Corporation was down 0.89% or 1.49 points to 165.18.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 0.47%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were vTv Therapeutics Inc. which rose 157.73% to 2.00, Davidstea Inc. which was up 63.14% to settle at 4.16 and Sellas Life Sciences Group Inc. which gained 39.83% to close at 1.6500. The worst performers were MoSys Inc. which was down 55.37% to 0.2611 in late trade, GreenPro Capital Corp which lost 44.44% to settle at 5.500000 and ARCA Biopharma Inc. which was down 35.29% to 0.660 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices dipped yesterday but remained close to four-year highs on worries that global supplies will drop due to Washington’s sanctions on Iran. The market steadied after rallying in three consecutive sessions. Still, oil prices drew support from worries that Iranian production will drop sharply after U.S. sanctions go into effect on Nov. 4. Also, global demand has remained strong in the face of trade tensions. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended yesterday’s session down 7 cents at $75.23 a barrel, having hit a nearly four-year high of $75.91 earlier in the session. Sentiment was lifted by a last-gasp deal to salvage NAFTA as a trilateral pact between the United States, Mexico and Canada, rescuing a $1.2 trillion a year open-trade zone that had been about to collapse. More fundamentally, oil markets have been pushed up by looming U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil industry. The Trump administration set a deadline of Nov. 4 for oil buyers to stop purchasing Iranian crude.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hit its highest in more than a week yesterday, vaulting the $1,200 per ounce mark, as investors sought refuge in the metal after stock markets sold off due to anti-euro comments by an Italian lawmaker. Spot gold jumped 1.3 percent to $1,202.81 per ounce, and was on track to post its biggest one-day percentage gain since Aug. 24. Prices earlier touched $1,208.23 an ounce, the highest since Sept. 21. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $15.3, or 1.28 percent, at $1,207 per ounce. The equity market sell-off has unnerved investors and is bringing in some safe-haven bids. Gold still needs to break and hold above major resistance in the $1,205-$1,215 range before we can be confident that a low has been formed. Gold had not been influenced by the dollar’s broad based rise, as represented by the dollar index. A rising dollar normally reduces the attractiveness of dollar-priced gold for overseas investors. One thing that was interesting today was that the dollar index was over 95 and gold completely ignored that. The index around this level is a major headwind for gold and when you ignore a headwind it is a bullish signal. Gold has fallen for the past six months, losing 13 percent, largely due to dollar strength, with the U.S currency benefiting from a vibrant U.S. economy, rising U.S interest rates and fears of a global trade war. U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday hailed a “remarkably positive outlook” for the U.S economy. The Fed raised rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020, citing steady economic growth and a robust jobs market. Rising interest rates boost the greenback and increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. As long as the U.S. economy continues to grow strongly and the news in terms of trade is generally in favor of the U.S, gold is going to struggle. Market participants are now waiting for the U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday for further indications on the strength of the economy.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Corn and soybean futures firmed for a second day yesterday on expectations for improved demand following a recent price slump and as a rainy weather outlook for the Midwest threatened to stall harvesting.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, October 02, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26680 26835 26551 26803 132
S & P 500 SPM18 2929 2936 2917.5 2928.5 -1
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7674.75 7712.5 7630 7652.5 -21.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27753 27753 26987 26988 -884
Nikkei 225 NKH18 24390 24440 24215 24265 -40
FTSE 100 FTH18 7437.5 7450.5 7407 7445 -9.5
Gold GCJ18 1192.5 1212 1192.2 1207 14.6
Silver SIK18 1451.5 1493.5 1445.5 1470.5 20.5
Copper HGK18 278.5 285.2 275.95 279.95 1.4
Crude Oil CLK18 75.4 75.87 74.9 75.02 -0.42
Wheat WK18 509.75 524.25 505 518.75 9.5
Soybeans SK18 855 866 852.75 865.75 9
Corn CK18 364.75 368.75 362.75 367 1.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 26340 26446 26624 26730 26908 27014 27192
SPM18 2900.17 2908.83 2918.67 2927.33 2937.17 2945.83 2955.67
NDM18 7535.00 7582.50 7617.50 7665.00 7700.00 7747.50 7782.50
HSH18 25966 26477 26732 27243 27498 28009 28264
NKH18 23948 24082 24173 24307 24398 24532 24623
FTH18 7374.33 7390.67 7417.83 7434.17 7461.33 7477.67 7504.83
GCJ18 1175.67 1183.93 1195.47 1203.73 1215.27 1223.53 1235.07
SIK18 1398.17 1421.83 1446.17 1469.83 1494.17 1517.83 1542.17
HGK18 266.28 271.12 275.53 280.37 284.78 289.62 294.03
CLK18 73.69 74.29 74.66 75.26 75.63 76.23 76.60
WK18 488.50 496.75 507.75 516.00 527.00 535.25 546.25
SK18 843.75 848.25 857.00 861.50 870.25 874.75 883.50
CK18 357.58 360.17 363.58 366.17 369.58 372.17 375.58

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-10-03

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週二(10月2日)小幅收漲,站穩在95關口上方,日內無重大數據公佈。歐市盤中受到義大利財政政策的不安影響,加上市場圍繞對英國退歐反復出現不安情緒,投資者持續拋售歐元及英鎊,讓避險資金大幅流入美元,使得美元指數一度攀升至日內高點95.75,美元收盤前因投機者獲利了結,最終收在95.49。

現貨黃金週二亞市早盤開於1188.50美元/金衡盎司後,即錄得日內低點1188.20美元/金衡盎司,之後金價震盪上行。歐市金價未能延續漲勢轉跌,觸及低位後,多頭突然暴力拉升,金價跳漲。美市金價延續漲勢,多頭猛攻,錄得日內高點1207.95美元/金衡盎司後,金價轉跌後再轉盤整,最終收盤於1202.65美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收跌0.47美元,或0.62%,報75.05美元/桶。原油庫存報告公佈前油價承壓,即使伊朗制裁帶來的供應憂慮仍在升溫,不過美元指數持續上漲加大了油價的下行壓力。

美國股市週二漲跌不一,美國股市道瓊工業指數週二創紀錄最高收盤點位,但Facebook FB.O 股價又一次下跌,拖累標普500和納斯達克指數收低。道瓊工業指數收高122.73點,或0.46%,至26,773.94點;標準普爾500指數微跌1.16點,或0.04%,至2,923.43點;納斯達克指數收跌37.76點,或0.47%,至7,999.55點。

個股方面, Facebook FB.O跌1.91%,連續三日下跌,期間跌幅達到5.6%,公司週五披露有史以來最嚴重安全性漏洞,這可能加大外界對科技公司保護線上安全隱私立法的呼聲。百事可樂PEP.O 跌1.80%,因商品價格上升和運輸成本上漲導致公司毛利率令人失望,蓋過了高於預期的季度盈利。

日本股市週二上漲,美國國防部周一宣布,國防部長馬提斯(Jim Mattis)取消訪中行程,隔日一艘美國軍艦巡航南海爭議海域,差點與中國軍艦擦撞,讓中美緊張局勢升級。日經225指數盤中載浮載沉,終場勉強收漲0.1%或24.86點,收24,270.62點。

個股方面,豐田汽車收高1.63%、家電廠Panasonic收漲2.7%。日本小野藥品工業株式會社盤中最高一度跳高6.9%,主因小野藥品Opdivo抗癌療程的合作研究學者獲頒諾貝爾獎。日本服裝連鎖店島村跌8.2%,此前該公司調降截至2019年2月會計年度的獲利預估,目前預計將錄得淨利潤273億日元,低於之前預估的350億日元。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜收跌。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱緊縮,RSI指標位於弱勢迴轉點。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於113.000一線附近。上行方面,價格阻力目標進一步指向114.100一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜收跌。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於強勢迴轉點。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.15000一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標看向1.16000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜收跌。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於平衡區40。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐考驗1.29300。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於1.30500一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜上漲,最高觸及1207.95。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於平衡區56。後市來看,金價阻力目標指向1205.00一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐考驗1196.00一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜下跌,最高探至74.92一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於弱勢迴轉點。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於74.00一線。上行方面,油價阻力位指向77.00關口。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至26835一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於弱勢迴轉點。後市來看,價格阻力目標進一步考驗26900一線。下行方面,價格支撐看向26700關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜收跌。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱緊縮,RSI指標位於弱勢迴轉點。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗24000一線,上方阻力位看向24400關口。

 

 

02 10 月 2018

Daily Market View

     

Daily Market View

Tuesday, October 02, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26671 2929.50 7673.75
+0.81% +0.46% +0.04%

U.S stocks rose after the last-minute clinching of a NAFTA deal bolstered confidence trade tensions would ease. Canada’s dollar remained higher, though Mexico’s peso gave back its rise. The S&P 500 Index cut a gain of 0.8 percent by half, with the bulk of the retreat coming during President Donald Trump’s hour-long press conference touting the trilateral deal. Domestically focused small caps declined. General Electric Co. surged after replacing its chief executive, while Tesla Inc. rallied after Elon Musk settled with regulators. The Loonie jumped 0.8 percent versus the dollar. Oil topped $74 a barrel in New York. A measure of confidence returned to markets after American and Canadian representatives announced a trade deal to be known as the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, making modest revisions to the old NAFTA framework. Political drama in Washington still swirled around Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, but investors remained focus on a spate of corporate news and economic data due this week. Stocks are rallying on the back of a last-minute deal.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

RBA Cash Rate Target 04:30 1.50% 1.50%

sep

Japan Consumer Confidence Index 05:00 43.1 43.3

sep

U.K Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) 06:00 1.9% 2.0%

sep

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI 08:30 52.9 52.9

aug

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) 09:00 3.8% 4.0%

 

Fed’s Chairman Powell Speaks at NABE Conference in Boston 16:00    

sep

New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 21:00   0.6%

sep

Australia AiG Performance of Service Index 22:30   52.2

sep

U.K BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 23:01   0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.73%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Boeing Co, which rose 2.79% or 10.39 points to trade at 382.29 at the close. Meanwhile, Chevron Corp added 1.73% or 2.11 points to end at 124.39 and American Express Company was up 1.32% or 1.41 points to 107.90 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 1.78% or 0.84 points to trade at 46.45 at the close. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. declined 0.60% or 0.44 points to end at 72.46 and Walt Disney Company was down 0.60% or 0.70 points to 116.24.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 0.11%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were GreenPro Capital Corp which rose 157.81% to 9.900000, ARCA Biopharma Inc. which was up 82.14% to settle at 1.020 and New Age Beverages Corp which gained 67.29% to close at 8.95. The worst performers were Akorn Inc. which was down 58.71% to 5.36 in late trade, AVROBIO Inc. which lost 51.55% to settle at 25.13 and Rxi Pharmaceuticals Corp which was down 49.57% to 0.5900 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil futures looked to extend their gains to the third session in a row, with U.S and global crude prices both eyeing their highest settlements in nearly four years. Oil prices climbed with the market still turning a nervous eye towards Iranian production losses. While official U.S. sanctions against Iranian oil exports are still just over a month away, Iran’s exports have already declined by at least 30% according to multiple estimates, as foreign buyers look elsewhere to source oil. November U.S oil, rose $1.45, or 2%, to $74.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday’s moves come after Brent crude posted a weekly gain of 5%, based on the front-month contract, while WTI oil saw a weekly climb of 3.5%. Crude’s rally over the past few months has been buoyed by declining Iranian crude exports ahead of U.S. economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic’s oil industry, set to take effect Nov. 4. On Friday, however, Baker Hughes reported a second straight weekly decline.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold edged down yesterday, holding a tight range, on expectations that a strong U.S economy would bring higher U.S interest rates and boost the Dollar. Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $1,187.18 an ounce, staying between $1,192.22 and $1,184.21. It fell as low as $1,180.34 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3 percent to $1,192.90. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week said the U.S. central bank plans gradual increases to interest rates. This could further boost the U.S currency, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and potentially subduing demand. The main news in gold is still related to the Fed. Following Jerome Powell’s speech last week, the market is expecting one more rate hike in December and another three next year. The Fed raised U.S rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020, citing steady economic growth and a robust jobs market. Higher U.S. interest rates tend to boost the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Sellers remain in control and it is quite technical trading at the moment. We are currently operating in a tight range of $1,181 – $1,193. If we break below $1,181, there is a heightened risk of a move toward an August low of $1,160. Gold has fallen more than 13 percent from its April high, largely because of the stronger dollar, which has been boosted by a vibrant U.S. economy and fears of a global trade war. Investors have also opted to buy the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds as safe investments instead of gold. Speculators raised their net short position in gold by 2,923 lots to 77,313 lots, the largest in three weeks, in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Silver slipped 0.8 percent to $14.48 and platinum rose 0.6 percent to $817. Softer Chinese data released overnight has just removed some bids we saw coming in for semi and industrial metals last week.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures slid for a second session, pressured by a rise in U.S stocks to an 11-year high and expectations of a record crop, while corn rose as low prices and a U.S-Canada-Mexico trade deal tempted buyers.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, October 01, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26518 26751 26514 26671 181
S & P 500 SPM18 2922.5 2941.75 2922.5 2929.5 9.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7671.25 7728 7651.5 7673.75 10.75
Hang Seng HSH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Nikkei 225 NKH18 24245 24315 24130 24305 160
FTSE 100 FTH18 7513 7515 7437 7465.5 0
Gold GCJ18 1192.1 1195.5 1187.9 1192.4 -3.3
Silver SIK18 1461 1465 1438 1450 -19
Copper HGK18 280.3 282.1 275.5 278.55 -2
Crude Oil CLK18 73.39 75.74 72.91 75.44 2.28
Wheat WK18 511 514.75 505.25 509.25 0.5
Soybeans SK18 845 863.5 842.75 856.75 11.75
Corn CK18 356.75 366 356.25 365.5 9.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 26303 26408 26540 26645 26777 26882 27014
SPM18 2901.50 2912.00 2920.75 2931.25 2940.00 2950.50 2959.25
NDM18 7564.33 7607.92 7640.83 7684.42 7717.33 7760.92 7793.83
HSH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
NKH18 24000 24065 24185 24250 24370 24435 24555
FTH18 7352.00 7394.50 7430.00 7472.50 7508.00 7550.50 7586.00
GCJ18 1180.77 1184.33 1188.37 1191.93 1195.97 1199.53 1203.57
SIK18 1410.00 1424.00 1437.00 1451.00 1464.00 1478.00 1491.00
HGK18 268.73 272.12 275.33 278.72 281.93 285.32 288.53
CLK18 70.82 71.87 73.65 74.70 76.48 77.53 79.31
WK18 495.25 500.25 504.75 509.75 514.25 519.25 523.75
SK18 824.42 833.58 845.17 854.33 865.92 875.08 886.67
CK18 349.42 352.83 359.17 362.58 368.92 372.33 378.67

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

02 10 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 02, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Higher US Treasury yields boosted appeal for the Greenback yesterday

·      The Euro struggled to stay above 1.16 levels on the Italian budget concerns

·      The Canadian Dollar rallied half a per cent against the US Dollar yesterday

·      A ruling Conservative Party Conference got underway over the weekend

The big story in the FX market was the U.S.-Canada trade deal. In the eleventh hour, the 2 neighboring countries managed to secure a deal that will be known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA for short). This agreement should be enough to end months of uncertainty and the pave the way for an interest rate hike as quickly as this month. At the end of last week, before the trade deal was finalized investors were already pricing in a 90% of an October move. Today, those odds increased to 96% – which means the market basically sees a guaranteed hike. Last week’s GDP report confirmed that the economy is performing well and earlier in the week, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz said uncertainty shouldn’t prevent rate hikes. Now that this uncertainty has been lifted, the value of USD/CAD could start to reflect the odds of tightening. We see the pair falling to at least the May lows around 1.2740 especially with Canadian bond yields soaring and oil prices rising to its highest level since 2014. Canada’s IVEY PMI and labor market reports are due later this week but unless they are abysmal, they should not affect the BoC’s decision to normalize monetary policy by raising interest rates in the very near future. By now, no one should be surprised to see sterling jockeyed around by Brexit headlines. This is a big week for the UK with the Tory Party Conference underway that will end with an important speech by Prime Minister May on Wednesday. Today, GBP/USD soared above 1.31 on the back of reports that May is “preparing to make a significant new Brexit offer to the European Union in an attempt to open the door to a deal.” The Irish border is the main issue blocking progress and maybe she finally willing to concede for full access to the customs union. All of these domestic factors were more important than US data. Although manufacturing activity and construction spending slowed more than expected, the greenback extended its gains against the Japanese Yen, euro and Swiss Franc. It sold off versus the sterling, Canadian and Australian dollars. There are a lot of US economic reports and Fed speak on this week’s calendar that could affect dollar trade but as long as the data isn’t terrible, the greenback could extend its gains. Euro extended its losses against the greenback for the fourth consecutive trading session. Downward revisions to EZ PMIs and the fear that Italy will be downgraded by one of the major rating agencies are keeping the currency under pressure.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
04:30 RBA Cash Rate Target (OCT 2) High 1.50% 1.50%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (SEP) Medium 43.1 43.3
06:00 U.K Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) (SEP) Medium 1.9% 2.0%
08:30 Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (SEP) Medium 52.9 52.9
09:00 Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Low 3.8% 4.0%
14:00 U.S Fed’s Quarles Testifies to Senate Banking Committee Low
16:00 U.S Fed’s Chairman Powell Speaks at NABE Conference in Boston High
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Service Index (SEP) Medium 52.2
23:01 U.K BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Low 0.1%

 

Euro

The single currency fell yesterday as top Euro zone officials expressed concern over Italy’s 2019 draft budget that could increase the country’s debt, and signaled they expected changes in the coming weeks. Italy’s Eurosceptic government proposed on Thursday a budget that increases the deficit to 2.4 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) next year. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1562 and a high of 1.1623 before closing the day around 1.1576 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen weakened to 113.96 per Dollar, reaching its lowest since the middle of November 2017 before paring some losses. The greenback has risen four straight weeks against the Japanese currency, including a nearly 1 percent gain booked last week. For the third quarter, the dollar index posted its second consecutive quarterly gain. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.70 and a high of 114.04 before closing the day around 113.90 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound strengthened at the start of the new month thanks to a strong Manufacturing PMI reading and news that the U.K. was prepared to shift its stance on the Irish border question to seal a Brexit deal before year-end. U.K Prime Minister Theresa May is reported to be preparing a significant new Brexit offer to the European Union. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3010 and a high of 1.3114 before closing the day at 1.3038 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar gained sharply against the U.S Dollar as the United States and Canada reached a framework deal to update the North American Free Trade Agreement. Sources with direct knowledge of the talks confirmed the two countries reached a deal, which involved offering more dairy access to U.S farmers.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2780 and a high of 1.2860 before closing the day at 1.2810 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar almost ended the day unchanged against the Greenback. The main release for the Australian Dollar in the week ahead is the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting today. The RBA is not expected to raise interest rates at the meeting despite steady growth. The minutes from the last meeting showed the governing council does not see any change in policy in the near-term. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7200 and a high of 0.7239 before closing the day at 0.7218 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.02%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 63 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.26%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.29%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 01, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16032 1.16235 1.15622 1.15766 -0.0025
USD/JPY 113.735 114.043 113.708 113.908 0.2420
GBP/USD 1.30298 1.31149 1.30102 1.30388 0.0009
USD/CHF 0.98116 0.98541 0.98053 0.98364 0.0019
USD/CAD 1.28384 1.286 1.278 1.28109 -0.0105
EUR/JPY 131.984 132.439 131.714 131.904 0.0240
GBP/JPY 148.213 149.392 148.186 148.55 0.4310
CHF/JPY 115.888 116.15 115.66 115.772 0.0170
AUD/JPY 82.144 82.368 82.035 82.253 0.2130
EUR/GBP 0.89033 0.8913 0.88582 0.88768 -0.0025
EUR/CHF 1.13865 1.1426 1.13621 1.13906 0.0000
GBP/CHF 1.27852 1.2882 1.27738 1.28289 0.0037

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1490 1.1526 1.1551 1.1587 1.1613 1.1649 1.1674
USD/JPY 113.39 113.55 113.73 113.89 114.06 114.22 114.40
GBP/USD 1.2890 1.2950 1.2994 1.3055 1.3099 1.3159 1.3204
USD/CHF 0.9761 0.9783 0.9810 0.9832 0.9859 0.9881 0.9907
USD/CAD 1.2694 1.2737 1.2774 1.2817 1.2854 1.2897 1.2934
EUR/JPY 130.87 131.29 131.60 132.02 132.32 132.74 133.05
GBP/JPY 146.82 147.50 148.03 148.71 149.23 149.92 150.44
CHF/JPY 115.08 115.37 115.57 115.86 116.06 116.35 116.55
AUD/JPY 81.74 81.89 82.07 82.22 82.40 82.55 82.74
EUR/GBP 0.8798 0.8828 0.8852 0.8883 0.8907 0.8937 0.8962
EUR/CHF 1.1296 1.1329 1.1360 1.1393 1.1424 1.1457 1.1488
GBP/CHF 1.2666 1.2720 1.2774 1.2828 1.2883 1.2936 1.2991

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 市場報告                     2018-10-02

 

   
Market Summary
週一(10月1日)美元指數上漲,亞市盤中美元指數溫和上漲,美元指數來到95.31,歐市盤中,有消息指出英國首相特雷莎·梅準備向歐盟提供一個新的不同的脫歐協定,消息傳來英鎊與歐元一度短線上漲,美元指數應聲滑落,盤中最低來到95.00,美市盤中美國公佈9月ISM製造業採購經理人指數,公佈值為59.8,低於市場預期的60.5和前值的61.3,但美元受到美聯儲加息影響,加上美國經濟過熱,多頭仍持續猛攻,盤中最高來到95.37,盤後最終收在95.32。

現貨黃金週一下跌,黃金開盤後受到美元指數上漲影響,黃金一路下跌盤中最低來到1184.28美元/金衡盎司,美市盤中美國公佈相關數據不佳,讓市場的擔憂再起,黃金一路上漲,盤中最高來到1191.85美元/金衡盎司,收盤前受到美元轉強,黃金震盪下跌,最終收在1188.50美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收漲1.71美元,或2.34%,報75.52美元/桶。 臨近美國第二輪伊朗制裁,原油供應面憂慮情緒攀升,同時美加達成貿易協定也很大程度上改善了市場風險情緒,對原油等風險類資產帶來支撐。

美國股市週一漲跌不一,標普500指數和道瓊工業指數上漲,此前美國與加拿大在周日午夜最後期限之前達成協議,挽救了由美加墨三國參與北美自由貿易協定(NAFTA)的格局,扶助緩解了貿易憂慮。道瓊工業指數收高200.16點,或0.76%,至26,658.47點;標準普爾500指數收升10.74點,或0.37%,至2,924.72點;納斯達克指數收跌9.05點,或0.11%,至8,037.3點。

個股方面, 波音公司BA,上漲2.79%,收盤報價為382.29。同時,雪佛龍公司CVX上漲了1.73%,收於124.39;美國運通公司AXP漲1.32%(1.41 點),尾盤收報107.90。通用電氣公司GE,上漲7.09%,收於12.09;普萊克斯公司:PX收盤時漲5.06%,報收168.87;赫斯公司HES上升4.21%,收盤價為74.59。

日本股市週一上漲,因日元走貶,加上半導體相關類股大漲,激勵日經225指數1日續揚、創高,終場漲0.52%或125.72點,收24,245.76點。

個股方面,設備商東京威力科創大漲2.21%、矽晶圓廠SUMCO大漲2.06%。夏普跌0.39%,夏普1日宣布已完成東芝旗下從事PC事業的「Toshiba Client Solutions(以下簡稱TCS)」的收購,已取得TCS 80.1%股權,正式重返PC市場。全球積層陶瓷電容器(MLCC)龍頭廠村田製作所勁揚1.20%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜收漲。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上接近超買區。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於113.500一線附近。上行方面,價格阻力目標進一步指向114.800一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜收跌。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於平衡區36。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.15000一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標看向1.16000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜收漲。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於平衡區46。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐考驗1.29800。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於1.31000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜下跌,最低觸及1184.28。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微張,RSI指標位於平衡區44。後市來看,金價阻力目標指向1191.00一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐考驗1180.00一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜上漲,最高探至75.76一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於超買區。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於74.00一線。上行方面,油價阻力位指向77.00關口。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至26751一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標位弱勢迴轉點。後市來看,價格阻力目標進一步考驗26800一線。下行方面,價格支撐看向26500關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜收漲。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微張,RSI指標位於超買區。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗24000一線,上方阻力位看向24700關口。

 

 

01 10 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 01, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The last week of the third quarter was another good one for the U.S Dollar

·      The Euro was hit hard after the newly elected government decided on a 2.4% deficit target for 2019

·      This week is an important one for the British pound because there’s a Tory Party Conference

·      Canada failed to reach a trade deal with the US this past week

The Greenback climbed to 13-month highs against the Japanese Yen and renewed its rally versus the Swiss Franc, euro and Australian Dollar. Interest rate differentials played a major role in the dollar’s rise as the Federal Reserve raised interest for the third time this year. There were a lot of big stories that affected currencies this month including trade wars, Brexit and Italy’s debt crisis. The Japanese Yen was hit hard but the biggest losers were the euro and Swiss Franc. Sterling was the most resilient but trader positioning was the only reason for the currency’s steady performance. As we look ahead, many of the events that affected currency trade in September will continue to rattle the forex market in October. The UK has a Tory Conference this weekend, Italy’s Economy Minister Giovanni Tria could still resign while US-Canada trade negotiations continue. This means that while some of the major currencies found a bottom in late August or early September, they are still at risk of further losses in the third quarter. The market’s focus on the direction of U.S. monetary policy is the one thing that could change in October. After raising interest rates by 25bp at their last meeting, the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy for another 2.5 months. One of the main reasons why the dollar is strong is because the Fed’s dot plot moved in favor of another rate hike in December. In June, only half of the Fed Presidents saw 4 rate hikes this year but now 75% of them support an additional move before year-end. As a result, investors have priced in a 72% chance of another quarter point lift in rates. The biggest problem for the euro is Italy. The single currency was hit hard on Friday after the newly elected populist government decided on a 2.4% deficit target for 2019. Both the EU and the country’s finance minister had hoped to keep the budget between 1.6% and 2% of GDP, but the coalition defied their wishes by agreeing on a much higher budget deficit. In response, Italian stocks collapsed and yields spiked higher. The euro was the casualty of these moves because investors are worried that this decision will lead to more trouble for Italy. While the new deficit target is still below the EU’s 3% limit, the decision to go against Finance Minister Tria’s recommendation could prompt his resignation. As an independent economist, his appointment was a move to reassure the markets so a resignation could cripple the government.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Real (YoY) (AUG) Medium     -0.3%
07:30 Switzerland PMI Manufacturing (SEP) Medium     64.8
08:30 U.K Net Consumer Credit (AUG) Medium     0.8b
08:30 U.K Mortgage Approvals (AUG) Medium     64.8k
08:30 Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (SEP) Medium     52.8
09:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (AUG) Medium     8.2%
13:30 RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (SEP) High     56.8
14:00 U.S Construction Spending (MoM) (AUG) Medium     0.1%
14:00 U.S ISM Manufacturing (SEP) High   60 61.3
14:00 U.S ISM Employment (SEP) High     58.5
14:00 U.S ISM Prices Paid (SEP) Medium     72.1

 

 

Euro

The single currency slipped below $1.16 on Friday for the first time in two weeks after Italy’s government agreed on a budget seen by some investors as defying Brussels. The single currency recorded its biggest one-day decline for nearly two months on Thursday as the battle over fiscal policy intensified in the euro zone’s third largest economy. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1568 and a high of 1.1649 before closing the day around 1.1601 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair gained following the divergence between the monetary policies of the hawkish U.S Fed and the dovish Bank of Japan helped drive the Dollar/Yen to its highest level since December 21. The widely expected Fed rate hike last week also widened the spread between U.S Government bond yields and Japanese Government bond yields. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.30 and a high of 113.67 before closing the day around 113.66 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound moved over momentum inspired from Brexit headlines and US Greenback’s strength due to a silent macro calendar on UK market. Pound longs finally gave up to dollar’s strength, and the GBP/USD pair broke below the 1.3100 level. Negotiations on Brexit aren’t going nearly as swimmingly as many people were expecting only a few weeks ago. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2998 and a high of 1.3088 before closing the day at 1.3029 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar notched its largest gain in two months on Friday after faster-than-expected growth of the domestic economy boosted expectations of an interest rate hike from the BOC in October. It left the loonie as the best performing G10 currency on Friday despite the expected release of the text of the Trump administration’s trade agreement. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2907 and a high of 1.3046 before closing the day at 1.2915 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar was pressured all week by rising U.S interest rates, solid U.S economic data and lower demand for risky assets. With the Fed raising rates for a third time this year and signaling more to come, the spread between U.S interest rates and Australian interest rates continued widen, making the U.S Dollar a more attractive investment. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7200 and a high of 0.7239 before closing the day at 0.7218 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.09%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.44%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.03%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.11%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 28, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16386 1.16498 1.15683 1.16014 -0.0038
USD/JPY 113.368 113.674 113.301 113.666 0.3040
GBP/USD 1.30739 1.30885 1.29985 1.30294 -0.0047
USD/CHF 0.97711 0.98173 0.97356 0.9817 0.0046
USD/CAD 1.30425 1.30468 1.29078 1.29155 -0.0124
EUR/JPY 131.962 132.284 131.157 131.88 -0.0820
GBP/JPY 148.213 148.617 147.515 148.119 -0.1350
CHF/JPY 115.991 116.417 115.678 115.755 -0.2400
AUD/JPY 81.671 82.173 81.60 82.04 0.3620
EUR/GBP 0.88993 0.89126 0.88708 0.89018 0.0003
EUR/CHF 1.13742 1.13966 1.12787 1.13903 0.0016
GBP/CHF 1.2776 1.27968 1.26947 1.27918 0.0014

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1482 1.1525 1.1563 1.1607 1.1645 1.1688 1.1726
USD/JPY 113.05 113.17 113.42 113.55 113.79 113.92 114.17
GBP/USD 1.2899 1.2949 1.2989 1.3039 1.3079 1.3129 1.3169
USD/CHF 0.9681 0.9708 0.9763 0.9790 0.9844 0.9872 0.9926
USD/CAD 1.2728 1.2818 1.2867 1.2957 1.3006 1.3096 1.3145
EUR/JPY 130.14 130.65 131.26 131.77 132.39 132.90 133.52
GBP/JPY 146.45 146.98 147.55 148.08 148.65 149.19 149.75
CHF/JPY 114.74 115.21 115.48 115.95 116.22 116.69 116.96
AUD/JPY 81.13 81.36 81.70 81.94 82.28 82.51 82.85
EUR/GBP 0.8836 0.8853 0.8878 0.8895 0.8919 0.8937 0.8961
EUR/CHF 1.1196 1.1237 1.1314 1.1355 1.1432 1.1473 1.1550
GBP/CHF 1.2623 1.2659 1.2725 1.2761 1.2828 1.2863 1.2930

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

01 10 月 2018

Daily Market View

 

Daily Market View

Monday, October 01, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26490 2920.00 7663.500
+0.07%  0.00% +0.05%

U.S stocks ended virtually unchanged to cap the best quarterly advance in five years. The Dollar edged higher. The S&P 500 Index saw the best quarter since 2013, even as the benchmark experienced its first weekly loss in three weeks. Financial shares paced losses, while technology firms led gains. Facebook shares declined more than 2 percent after the tech giant said a security breach affected about 50 million users. Tesla Inc. tumbled the most in five years after securities regulators filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk’s carmaker. Oil had the longest run of weekly gains in four months as energy giants to Wall Street banks predicted the return of $100 crude on an impending supply crunch. The dollar erased earlier gains after data showed U.S consumer spending cooled in August, while the 10-year Treasury yield traded near 3.05 percent. In Europe, Italy’s populists won their battle to fund costly campaign promises, while infighting over Brexit is embroiling the U.K’s Conservative Party. The yen’s slide to the weakest level this year helped stoke Japanese stocks.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

Switzerland Retail Sales Real (YoY) 07:15   -0.3%

sep

Switzerland PMI Manufacturing 07:30   64.8

aug

U.K Net Consumer Credit 08:30   0.8b

aug

U.K Mortgage Approvals 08:30   64.8k

sep

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. 08:30   52.8

aug

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 09:00   8.2%

sep

RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI 13:30   56.8

sep

U.S ISM Manufacturing 14:00 60 61.3

sep

U.S ISM Employment 14:00   58.5
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.07%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Intel Corporation, which rose 3.08% or 1.42 points to trade at 47.30 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 1.23% or 4.51 points to end at 371.90 and Walt Disney Company was up 0.78% or 0.90 points to 116.94 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Dow DuPont Inc., which fell 1.56% or 1.02 points to trade at 64.31 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declined 1.54% or 3.50 points to end at 224.24 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was down 1.47% or 1.68 points to 112.84.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index gained 0.05%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Sky Solar Holdings Adr Rep 8 which rose 47.39% to 0.678, AGM Group Holdings Inc. Class A which was up 34.21% to settle at 39.00 and New Age Beverages Corp which gained 30.81% to close at 5.35. The worst performers were Altimmune Inc. which was down 49.89% to 4.400 in late trade, Rxi Pharmaceuticals Corp which lost 28.22% to settle at 1.1700 and Monaker Group Inc. which was down 24.56% to 2.1501 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil posted the longest string of quarterly gains in more than a decade as impending supply disruptions threaten to fracture a global market with little margin for error. Futures rose 1.6 percent in New York on Friday while Brent racked up its fifth quarterly advance, a streak not seen since the first half of 2008. This historical echo comes as consumers once again eye supply disruptions and worry about the availability of backup supplies, just as they were a decade ago when the benchmark hit an all-time high above $147. The market is getting more nervous about Iranian sanctions especially on reports that Sinopec is cutting back” on purchases from the Persian Gulf nation. Oil has risen to the highest in almost four years in London after OPEC showed little enthusiasm for raising output despite President Donald Trump’s demand for lower prices. The world will need additional supplies as U.S sanctions dissuade major importers including India and South Korea from purchasing Iranian oil.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hit a fresh six-week low on Friday as the dollar firmed after upbeat U.S. economic data supported the Federal Reserve’s resolve for steady interest rate hikes, putting the metal on track for its longest monthly losing streak since January 1997. Gold was down about 1.6 percent in September, its sixth straight monthly loss. Spot gold rose 0.9 percent to $1,192.53 an ounce. The metal touched its lowest since Aug. 17 at $1,180.34 an ounce earlier in the session, dipping further from a six-week low of $1,181.61 hit on Thursday. U.S gold futures rose 0.7 percent at $1,196.10 an ounce. The dollar gained against its peers on Friday as data showed U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter at its fastest pace in nearly four years. Another report showed durable goods rose 4.5 percent in August, rebounding from a revised 1.2 percent drop the month before. The short-term outlook is bearish for gold as the dollar may see some upside due to an ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. and the Federal Reserve interest rate hike outlook. The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020. Robust U.S. economic fundamentals despite an escalation in trade tariffs have done little to lift demand for the non-interest bearing asset. The outlook for gold prices in the current term remains dim as such in lieu of rising rates and yields amidst buoyant U.S. economic conditions. Gold is down more than 13 percent from an April high, largely because of the stronger dollar, which has been boosted by a vibrant U.S. economy and fears of a global trade war. Investors have bought the greenback instead of gold as a safe investment. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s accusation of Chinese meddling in the upcoming U.S. elections marks a new phase in an escalating pressure campaign against Beijing that Washington is pursuing on multiple fronts, senior U.S officials said on Thursday.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Grain futures slumped on Friday after the U.S Department of Agriculture said farmers and crop handlers had more supplies in storage than analysts expected. The bigger-than-expected inventories from previous harvests add to an oversupply.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, September 28, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26497 26531 26345 26490 18
S & P 500 SPM18 2922.25 2925.25 2908 2920 0
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7663 7676.25 7616.75 7663 5.5
Hang Seng HSH18 27817 27930 27645 27872 168
Nikkei 225 NKH18 24050 24285 23995 24145 305
FTSE 100 FTH18 7513 7515 7437 7465.5 -39
Gold GCJ18 1187 1197.1 1184.1 1195.7 9.4
Silver SIK18 1426.5 1474 1424.5 1469 43
Copper HGK18 277.45 281.3 276.3 280.55 2.9
Crude Oil CLK18 72.16 73.69 71.85 73.16 1
Wheat WK18 512 517.5 505 508.75 -4
Soybeans SK18 853.5 859 841.5 845 -9.5
Corn CK18 364.25 366.25 354.25 355.75 -8.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 26194 26269 26380 26455 26566 26641 26752
SPM18 2893.00 2900.50 2910.25 2917.75 2927.50 2935.00 2944.75
NDM18 7568.25 7592.50 7627.75 7652.00 7687.25 7711.50 7746.75
HSH18 27416 27531 27701 27816 27986 28101 28271
NKH18 23708 23852 23998 24142 24288 24432 24578
FTH18 7352.00 7394.50 7430.00 7472.50 7508.00 7550.50 7586.00
GCJ18 1174.50 1179.30 1187.50 1192.30 1200.50 1205.30 1213.50
SIK18 1388.17 1406.33 1437.67 1455.83 1487.17 1505.33 1536.67
HGK18 272.47 274.38 277.47 279.38 282.47 284.38 287.47
CLK18 70.27 71.06 72.11 72.90 73.95 74.74 75.79
WK18 490.83 497.92 503.33 510.42 515.83 522.92 528.33
SK18 820.50 831.00 838.00 848.50 855.50 866.00 873.00
CK18 339.25 346.75 351.25 358.75 363.25 370.75 375.25

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-10-01

 

   
Market Summary
週五(9月28日)美元指數上漲,亞市盤中美元指數位於94.9附近震盪,歐市盤中,英國受到經濟數據拖累加上義大利債務風險浮現,投資者紛紛拋棄英鎊及歐元,美元順勢上揚,盤中最高來到95.37,美市盤中美國公佈 8月核心PCE平減指數(年率)公佈值為2.0%與前值2.0%相同,但受到加拿大公佈GDP優於預期的影響,美元指數短線下挫,美元指數來到95.0的心裡關卡,收盤前美元指數回穩收在95.06。

現貨黃金週五上漲,亞市盤中黃金在1183美元/金衡盎司做區間震盪,盤中最低來到1180.60美元/金衡盎司,美市盤中黃金受到美元轉弱的影響,加上黃金低價也引發了抄底買盤的湧入,黃金日內上揚最高來到1193.50美元/金衡盎司,收盤前黃金小幅震盪,最終收在1191.35美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油五收漲0.98美元,或1.36%,報73.18美元/桶。 美國能源部長佩里(Rick Perry)近日在新聞發佈會上表示,特朗普政府並未考慮出售美國戰略原油儲備來抵消伊朗制裁的影響。美國已經計畫在11月4日正式實施第二輪伊朗制裁,屆時的目標是零封伊朗原油出口,目前沙特和俄羅斯等主要產油國沒有足夠的空閒產能來進一步推高產量,因此第二輪制裁實施後,原油缺口擴大或繼續推高油價。

美國股市週五上漲,道瓊工業指數收高18.38點,或0.07%,至26,458.31點;標準普爾500指數基本持平,僅下跌0.02點,或0.00%,報2,913.98點;納斯達克指數上漲4.38點,或0.05%,至8,046.35點。

個股方面, Facebook FB.O 週五大跌2.59%,此前公司稱,發現影響約5,000萬個用戶的安全事故。英特爾 INTC.O 跳漲3.08%,對三大股指帶來最大的提振,此前公司稱,有信心會實現其全年營收目標。特斯拉 TSLA.O 暴跌13.90%,創2013年11月來最差單日表現,此前美國證券交易委員會(SEC)週四起訴特斯拉執行長馬斯克欺詐,並尋求將他趕下公司掌門人的大位。

因美股27日走揚,加上日元走貶、激勵出口相關類股走高,提振日經225指數28日開盤後隨即跳空大漲約280點,之後指數一度攀高、創27年來新高紀錄,惟受獲利了結影響、壓縮漲幅縮小,終場大漲1.36%或323.30點,收24,120.04點。

個股方面,Sony飆漲4.52%,創11年4個月來(2007年5月31日以來)收盤新高紀錄。矽晶圓巨擘SUMCO勁揚1.42%,SUMCO 27日宣布,受9月6日發生的北海道強震影響而停工的矽晶圓工廠(千歲工廠)已於27日重啟部份生產,不過因依舊面臨餘震風險,因此在以安全為最優先考量下、正持續努力早期全面重啟生產。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜收漲。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上並來到弱勢迴轉點。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於113.000一線附近。上行方面,價格阻力目標進一步指向114.500一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜收跌。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於平衡區39。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.15500一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標看向1.16500一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜收跌。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於平衡區45。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐考驗1.29800。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於1.31000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜上漲,最高觸及1193.50。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標位於平衡區44。後市來看,金價阻力目標指向1195.00一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐考驗1175.00一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜上漲,最高探至73.71一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於弱勢迴轉點。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於72.00一線。上行方面,油價阻力位指向75.00關口。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至26531一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微張,RSI指標位弱勢迴轉點。後市來看,價格阻力目標進一步考驗26800一線。下行方面,價格支撐看向26300關口。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜收漲。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微張,RSI指標位於超買區。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗23800一線,上方阻力位看向24500關口。