31 10 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 31, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Stronger than expected consumer confidence helped sustain the Greenback’s gains

·      The BOE will release its Quarterly Inflation Report with a monetary policy announcement

·      German Chancellor’s decision to step down in 2021 has made it difficult for EURO to rally

·      The Australian Dollar hit an 8 day high ahead of this evening’s third quarter inflation report

The U.S Dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies except for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Stronger than expected consumer confidence helped sustain the greenback’s gains but the bulk of rally occurred well before the data was released. Instead, it was the uptick in US bond yields, softer Eurozone data and BoE concerns that prevented EUR, GBP and JPY from rallying. The recovery in US stocks today was strong but the late day move was not driven by the consumer confidence index which hit an 18 year high. Weaker Eurozone data and German Chancellor Merkel’s decision to step down as chancellor in 2021 has made it difficult for EURO to rally. Not only did Eurozone confidence fall across the board with the business climate, industrial confidence and services confidence slipping but GDP growth also slowed unexpectedly in Q3. Economists had been looking for growth to remain steady at 0.4%, but instead the regional economy expanded by half that amount (0.2%) between July and September. Inflation is still on the rise according to German CPI but the lack of growth makes Draghi’s optimism a hard sell. Its time to turn your focus to the British pound because today, the Bank of England will release its Quarterly Inflation Report in conjunction with a monetary policy announcement. They are not expected to change interest rates but changes to their economic projections and the overall tone of the report will have a significant impact on the currency. Sterling dropped to a 2 month low versus the U.S. dollar today as the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation report and Governor Carney’s comments will determine whether the currency falls through its August lows or turns higher from here.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) Medium -10 -10 -9
00:30 Australia Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (3Q) High 1.9% 1.9% 2.1%
01:00 China Non-manufacturing PMI (OCT) Medium 53.9 54.6 54.9
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI (OCT) High 50.2 50.6 50.8
03:08 BOJ Outlook Report High      
03:08 BOJ Rate Decision (OCT 31) High -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
03:08 BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target (OCT 31) High 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (OCT) Medium 43.0 43.5 43.4
05:00 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (SEP) Medium -1.5% -0.8% 1.6%
07:00 German Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP) Medium -2.6% 1.0% 1.6%
10:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (SEP) Medium   8.1% 8.1%
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (OCT) High   1.1% 0.9%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 26) Medium     4.9%
12:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (OCT) Medium   187k 230k
12:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (AUG) High   2.4% 2.4%
13:45 U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager (OCT) Medium   60 60.4
14:30 DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories (OCT 26) Medium   3106K 6346k

 

Euro

The single currency has entered the new week on its back foot after the outcome of another regional election in Germany saw the single currency’s political headache turn into a migraine yesterday. The Euro has had a volatile start to the week, with the news that Angela Merkel is likely to leave her post in December shaking confidence in the region. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 1.1339 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1342 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted considerable losses in yesterday’s session, erasing Friday’s gains. On the release front, Japanese retail sales posted a strong gain of 2.1%, matching the forecast. In the U.S, the Core PCE Price Index gained 0.2%, edging above the estimate of 0.1%. Personal spending edged up to 0.4%, matching the forecast. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.28 and a high of 113.10 before closing the day around 113.09 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell against the U.S Dollar since breaching 1.2850 in late London and at the start of the North America trade as the dollar and risk appetite firms up. The Dollar has been finding a bid again with US stock markets battling back lost ground on Monday, following suit of a bounce in European bourses. . Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2694 and a high of 1.2810 before closing the day at 1.2704 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower yesterday, trading in a narrow range as stocks rose and oil prices declined. Canada runs a current account deficit and exports many commodities, including oil, so its economy tends to benefit when capital flows freely. Still, concern over the global economy put crude on track for its biggest monthly fall since mid-2016. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3098 and a high of 1.3145 before closing the day at 1.3108 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar started the week lower against the U.S Dollar. Aussie has been hammered as risk sentiment took a knock following weakness in the Chinese Yuan. The RBA has held rates at 1.5 per cent since mid-2016 and markets imply only a 50-50 chance of a hike by December next year. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7019 and a high of 0.7102 before closing the day at 0.7088 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 36 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.41%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.02%.

   

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.36%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.44%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.34%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 30, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13714 1.13865 1.13391 1.13428 -0.0029
USD/JPY 112.355 113.102 112.285 113.099 0.7510
GBP/USD 1.27964 1.28107 1.2694 1.27042 -0.0087
USD/CHF 1.00162 1.00504 1.00065 1.00504 0.0033
USD/CAD 1.31314 1.3145 1.30982 1.3108 -0.0024
EUR/JPY 127.776 128.416 127.712 128.305 0.5280
GBP/JPY 143.796 144.367 143.189 143.712 -0.0240
CHF/JPY 112.148 112.741 112.073 112.495 0.3660
AUD/JPY 79.265 80.342 79.233 80.338 1.0780
EUR/GBP 0.88846 0.89377 0.8881 0.89265 0.0039
EUR/CHF 1.13905 1.14167 1.13685 1.14021 0.0010
GBP/CHF 1.28181 1.28354 1.27529 1.27714 -0.0043

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1278 1.1309 1.1326 1.1356 1.1373 1.1404 1.1421
USD/JPY 111.74 112.01 112.56 112.83 113.37 113.65 114.19
GBP/USD 1.2545 1.2620 1.2662 1.2736 1.2779 1.2853 1.2895
USD/CHF 0.9977 0.9992 1.0021 1.0036 1.0065 1.0080 1.0109
USD/CAD 1.3042 1.3070 1.3089 1.3117 1.3136 1.3164 1.3183
EUR/JPY 127.17 127.44 127.87 128.14 128.58 128.85 129.28
GBP/JPY 141.97 142.58 143.15 143.76 144.32 144.93 145.50
CHF/JPY 111.46 111.77 112.13 112.44 112.80 113.10 113.47
AUD/JPY 78.49 78.86 79.60 79.97 80.71 81.08 81.82
EUR/GBP 0.8836 0.8858 0.8892 0.8915 0.8949 0.8972 0.9006
EUR/CHF 1.1327 1.1348 1.1375 1.1396 1.1423 1.1444 1.1471
GBP/CHF 1.2655 1.2704 1.2738 1.2787 1.2820 1.2869 1.2903

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-10-31

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週二(10月30日)收漲,美市盤中美國公布日內經濟數據,令美元指數多頭備受鼓舞。數據顯示,美國8月S&P/CS房價指數年率為5.49%,低於前值5.92%;美國10月消費者信心指數為137.9,高於預期值136.8,但低於前值138.4。數據公布後,提振美元指數上漲,錄得日內高點97.03,最終美元指數報收97.00。

現貨黃金週二亞市早盤開於1229.30美元/金衡盎司後,金價短暫上漲,錄得日內高點1230.30美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行。歐市盤中金價延續跌勢,錄得日內低點1219.60美元/金衡盎司後反彈。美市盤中多頭上攻,但攻勢未能持久,最終收盤於1222.80美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收跌0.29美元,或0.44%,報66.37美元/桶。美國即將對伊朗實施第二輪制裁,恐進一步打壓原油供應,但沙特等國將繼續增產,從而填補伊朗制裁造成的供應缺口,令市場對供應過剩局面的憂慮情緒加重,同時美元指數繼續走高也令油價承壓。

美國股市週二收盤三大股指跳升逾1%,受助於晶片和運輸類股強勁上漲,因投資者利用股市近期大幅回落的機會買入。道瓊工業指數上漲431.72點,或1.77%,報24874.64點,標普500指數上漲41.38點,或1.57%,報2682.63點;納斯達克指數上漲111.36點,或1.58%,報7161.65點。

個股方面,亞馬遜 AMZN 小跌0.55%;微軟 MSFT 下跌0.12%;Netflix NFLX 小漲0.34%;Alphabet  GOOGL 上揚1.43%。臉書 FB 上漲2.91%,但盤後公布財報失利,股價跳水近 3%。蘋果 AAPL 週二發布第二場秋季發布會,推出新版 iPad Pro、MacBook Air 和 Mac mini,該公司股價收漲 0.50%。IBM IBM 週二宣布,在現有庫藏股計畫下,將回購高達 40 億美元的自家股票,然而受到 2020-2021 年庫藏股計畫暫停的影響,市場仍有疑慮,終場下跌連續 3.54%,創連續五個交易日走貶。

因美股29日走跌,拖累日經225指數30日以低盤21,049點(昨日收盤為21,149點)開出,不過之後因日元走貶,加上中國上證指數今日彈升,也激勵日經225指數強彈翻紅,終場漲1.45%或307.49點,收21,457.29點

個股方面,日本MLCC廠商走揚。村田製作所大漲3.06%、TDK勁揚2.0%、京瓷勁揚1.63%。車用需求支撐、MLCC缺貨,日本6大電子零件廠上季訂單額創歷史新高。貿易戰衝擊、上季中國訂單腰斬,Fanuc下砍財測。不過Fanuc不受財測調降影響,今日股價飆漲3.38%。Sony上揚1.03%。確保影像感測器主導權,Sony傳將對半導體事業投資6,000億日元、將產能擴增2-3成。日本軸承龍頭NSK上揚0.27%,盤中一度暴跌逾5%,創約2年來(2016年11月9日以來)新低水準。貿易戰加劇、訂單出現減速跡象,NSK調降財測。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收漲,站上113關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,雙線金叉,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗112.500一線。上行方面,價格阻力位進一步指向113.400一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投於1.13500一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標向下逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格考驗1.13200一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位看向1.14100一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜延續收跌,刷新新低至1.26949一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標向下逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐依舊考驗1.26700一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位看向1.28400一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜延續收跌,最低探至1219一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,金價阻力位指向1236一線。下行方面,金價關鍵支撐考驗1210一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜震蕩收跌,最低觸及65.35一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗64.60一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向67.40一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜反彈收漲,最高探至24896一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上脫離超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位依舊考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐下看24400一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜反彈收漲,收復21000關口,最高探高至21670一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上脫離超賣區。後市來看,價格支撐考驗21000一線,上方阻力位看向22000一線。

 

市場報告                     2018-10-30

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週一(10月29日)上漲,但美國日內公布的經濟數據表現良莠不齊。數據顯示,美國9月核心個人消費支出物價指數年率為2.0%,與前值及預期值相同;美國9月個人消費支出物價指數年率為2.0%,低於前值2.2%;美國9月個人收入月率為0.4%,高於前值0.3%。數據公布後,提振美元指數上漲,但在收盤前稍微回落,最終美元指數報收96.59。

現貨黃金週一亞市早盤開於1232.90美元/金衡盎司後,金價短暫上漲,錄得日內高點1235.00美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行。歐市盤中金價延續跌勢後轉盤整。美市盤中受美元指數提振影響,金價大幅下挫,錄得日內低點1223.95美元/金衡盎司後反彈,收復部分失地,最終收盤於1229.30美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五收跌0.89美元,或-1.32%,報66.66美元/桶。美國股市週一收盤走低,回吐了早些時候的大幅漲幅,受到美中關稅消息可能以及科技股下跌的打壓。美國三大指數一度均進入修正區間。對企業盈利增長可能放緩以及全球經濟放緩的擔憂,同時供應過剩擔憂也在升溫,均令油價下行壓力不斷加大。

美國股市週一下跌,標普500指數收盤時險些確認2018年二度進入修正區間,因對美中貿易緊張關係升級的憂慮再現,且大型科技和互聯網公司的股價急挫。道瓊工業指數下跌245.39點,或0.99%,報24442.92點,標普500指數跌17.44點,或0.66%,報2641.25點;納斯達克指數下挫116.92點,或1.63%,報7050.29點。

個股方面,亞馬遜 AMZN 領跌 6.33%;Netflix NFLX 重跌 5%;Alphabet GOOGL 走跌 4.52%;臉書 FB 下跌 2.26%;蘋果 AAPL 下跌 1.88%;微軟 MSFT 下跌 2.91%半導體類股;Nvidia NVDA 下跌 6.39%;AMD AMD 下跌 4.42%;美光 MU 下跌 2.09%;Intel INTC 下跌 0.63%。

日本股市週一矽晶圓巨擘信越化學調升財測、股價狂飆,雖帶動日經225指數29日以紅盤開出後、指數漲幅一度擴大至約280點,不過因中國上證指數重挫、衝擊投資人信心,也拖累日經指數翻黑,終場跌0.16%或34.80點,收21,149.80點。

個股方面,日立跌0.61%。日立宣布將溢價16%、對台灣永大實施TOB,目標取得永大全數股權。NTT DoCoMo重挫2.56%。DoCoMo搶攻5G,今後5年傳將砸1兆日元投資。信越化學狂飆8.01%。矽晶圓能見度達2年,信越化學調升財測、獲利將連續第2年創歷史新高。Clarion大漲4.0%,創逾18年來(2000年4月17日以來)收盤新高紀錄。法國汽車零件供應商佛吉亞宣布,將對Clarion實施TOB,目標取得Clarion 100%股權。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜反彈收漲,收復112關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗111.800一線。上行方面,價格阻力位進一步指向112.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投於1.13900一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格依舊考驗1.13300一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位看向1.14300一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收跌,一度反彈至1.28516一線后回落走低。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標向下逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐依舊考驗1.27000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位看向1.28800一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜震蕩收跌,最低觸及1224一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力位依舊指向1240一線。下行方面,金價關鍵支撐考驗1210一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜回落收跌,全數回吐前一交易日升幅。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗64.60一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向67.80一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜巨幅震蕩收跌,盤中一度觸及新低至24085一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標進入超賣區。後市來看,價格初步阻力位依舊考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐下看24300一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收跌,下破21000關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,價格支撐進一步考驗20700一線,上方阻力位看向21500一線。

 

29 10 月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Monday, October 29, 2018

 

          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24747 2670.25 6893.00
-1.19% -1.73% -2.07%

Wall Street was back in aggressive sell-off mode on Friday, with major stock indices losing more than two percent following disappointing earnings announcement from Amazon and Google parent Alphabet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8% after earlier losing more than 2.0%, while the broad-based S&P 500 shed 2.4%. The tech-rich NASDAQ Index was down 2.1%. Both Amazon and Alphabet reported big jumps in quarterly profit but Amazon’s sales forecast for the critical holiday-shopping quarter disappointed analysts. Alphabet’s revenues in the just-finished quarter also lagged analyst forecasts. Amazon plummeted 9.2% while Alphabet slumped 4.8%. US government data, meanwhile, estimated third-quarter growth at a solid 3.5%, below the pace of the prior 4.2% quarter but better than expected. Friday’s weakness on Wall Street pushed the market back into the red where it has been for much of October, due in part to fears US corporate earnings have peaked following the one-time surge from the 2017 tax cut legislation.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

U.K Net Consumer Credit 09:30   1.1b

sep

U.K Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings 09:30   2.9b

sep

U.K Mortgage Approvals 09:30   66.4k

sep

U.S Personal Income 12:30 0.3% 0.3%

sep

U.S Personal Spending 12:30 0.4% 0.3%

sep

U.S Real Personal Spending 12:30   0.2%

sep

U.S Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) 12:30   2.2%

sep

U.S Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) 12:30   2.0%

sep

Japan Jobless Rate 23:30   2.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.19% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Intel Corporation, which rose 3.11% or 1.38 points to trade at 45.69 at the close. Meanwhile, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. added 0.65% or 0.49 points to end at 76.23 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 0.63% or 0.44 points to 70.40 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Home Depot Inc., which fell 3.82% or 6.84 points to trade at 172.23 at the close. Cisco Systems Inc. declined 2.68% or 1.22 points to end at 44.25 and American Express Company was down 2.27% or 2.35 points to 101.25.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 2.07% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which rose 66.20% to 7.180, China Recycling Energy Corp which was up 19.55% to settle at 1.5900 and MYnd Analytics Inc. which gained 24.09% to close at 1.70. The worst performers were Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 69.29% to 0.430 in late trade, Flex Ltd which lost 35.01% to settle at 7.09 and MoSys Inc. which was down 30.50% to 0.2648 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Crude oil futures posted their third consecutive weekly loss on Friday as the bulls that pushed oil prices to nearly four-year highs head into retreat. U.S crude ended this week down 2.2 percent and has now tumbled about 12 percent from its recent high of $86.74 on Oct. 3. Crude futures have gotten swept up in a wider stock market rout this month, with most of the losses for oil coinciding with a sell-off in equities. But the narrative driving oil prices has also flipped in recent weeks, and traders are closing out bullish bets on the commodity. At the start of October, oil prices were rising on signs that U.S. sanctions are shrinking Iran’s crude exports faster than anticipated, potentially leaving the world with a shortage of oil. The sanctions are expected to cut crude exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-biggest oil producer, by about 1 million barrels per day. But concerns about faltering demand and rising output from OPEC and Russia now have traders focused on potential oversupply.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices rose on Friday towards the three-month highs hit earlier this week as nervous investors retreated from stock markets and piled into the precious metal seen as a refuge from financial turmoil. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,235.16 an ounce having earlier this week hit $1,239.68, its highest since mid-July. It is on course for a fourth week of gains. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4 percent to $1,237.6 an ounce. Global stocks slid again on Friday and were set to post their worst weekly losing streak in more than five years. “The confusion in bond and stock markets is fuelling some interest in gold. If they continue to fall, that will give support to gold. You’ll then have trend buyers coming in and supporting the price. The bears are frightened of being caught on the wrong side. The liquidation of short positions on COMEX has the potential in the short term to drive gold up to between $1,260 and $1,270. Gold prices have gained more than 6 percent after falling to $1,159.96 an ounce in mid-August, their lowest since Jan. 2017. The release of U.S growth data earlier, which showed the economy slowed less than expected in the third quarter, had little lasting impact. Gold prices ticked down a little after the GDP report, but popped back up later. We are also seeing some more short-covering in the futures markets which is lifting prices. Investor flows into bullion, often considered a safe haven and store of value during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainties, can be seen by the rise in holdings of physically-backed exchange traded products. Holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, saw outflows of about 4.5 million ounces between late April and early October. Gold’s impressive performance of late, coming amid U.S. dollar strength, suggests that gold finally is behaving like a safe-haven asset.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures rose nearly 4 percent in Friday’s trading session and bounced back from multi-month lows a day earlier, buoyed by short-covering and indications that wheat was becoming more competitive globally. Corn futures rose on Friday, rebounding from Thursday’s two-week low, and soybeans rallied from a one-month low.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, October 26, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24794 24882 24413 24747 -100
S & P 500 SPM18 2677.75 2692.5 2627.25 2670.25 -14.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6880 6986 6734.5 6893 -28
Hang Seng HSH18 24956 25013 24522 24655 -237
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21485 21510 20960 21265 -75
FTSE 100 FTH18 6912 6953 6822.5 6912 -55.5
Gold GCJ18 1234.4 1245.7 1232.3 1235.7 1.4
Silver SIK18 1464.5 1478.5 1458 1469 4
Copper HGK18 275.25 275.35 272.75 274.05 -1.35
Crude Oil CLK18 66.93 67.84 66.16 67.53 0.6
Wheat WK18 486.75 506.25 486.75 504.75 17.75
Soybeans SK18 841.25 848.75 840.75 844.5 2.5
Corn CK18 361.5 369.5 361.5 367.25 6.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24010 24212 24479 24681 24948 25150 25417
SPM18 2568.92 2598.08 2634.17 2663.33 2699.42 2728.58 2764.67
NDM18 6504.83 6619.67 6756.33 6871.17 7007.83 7122.67 7259.33
HSH18 23956 24239 24447 24730 24938 25221 25429
NKH18 20430 20695 20980 21245 21530 21795 22080
FTH18 6708.17 6765.33 6838.67 6895.83 6969.17 7026.33 7099.67
GCJ18 1216.70 1224.50 1230.10 1237.90 1243.50 1251.30 1256.90
SIK18 1438.00 1448.00 1458.50 1468.50 1479.00 1489.00 1499.50
HGK18 270.15 271.45 272.75 274.05 275.35 276.65 277.95
CLK18 64.83 65.50 66.51 67.18 68.19 68.86 69.87
WK18 472.75 479.75 492.25 499.25 511.75 518.75 531.25
SK18 832.58 836.67 840.58 844.67 848.58 852.67 856.58
CK18 354.67 358.08 362.67 366.08 370.67 374.08 378.67

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-10-29

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週五(10月26日)轉跌,仍運行在96關口上方。數據方面,美國第三季度實際GDP年化季率初值為3.5%,低於前值4.2%,但高於預期3.4%,符合美國總統特朗普對2018年度GDP增長3%的目標;第3季度個人消費支出年化季率初值為4.0%,高於前值3.8%。數據公佈後,美元指數短線上漲,但GDP報告中的其他數據發布並不理想,因此很快地衝高後回落,最終美元指數報收96.42。

現貨黃金週五亞市早盤開於1231.75美元/金衡盎司後金價下挫,錄得日內低點1229.70美元/金衡盎司後轉盤整,多空膠著。歐市金價反彈,震盪上行,觸及高位後轉跌。美市多頭絕地反攻,金價一柱擎天,短線跳漲,錄得日內高點1243.25美元/金衡盎司後,金價跳水,失去此前漲幅,觸及低位後反彈,最終收盤1233.60美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五收漲0.53美元,或0.79%,報67.55美元/桶。美元指數回落抵消股市下跌帶來的利空影響,且美國將於11月實施第二輪伊朗制裁,令市場擔心供應缺口擴大恐增加價的上行風險,但沙特承諾繼續增產暫時緩解擔憂。

美國股市週五下跌,因亞馬遜和Alphabet最新公布的財報黯淡,衝擊科技及網路類股下跌。道瓊工業指數下跌296.24點,或1.19%,報24,688.31點,標普500指數跌46.88點,或1.73%,報2,658.69點;納斯達克指數下挫151.12點,或2.06%,報7,167.21點。

個股方面,Alphabet GOOGL下跌1.80%,因上季營收遜於市場預期,引發市場擔憂,且主管機關監管趨嚴、市場競爭益發激烈,恐令原本飛快的成長隨之降溫。Facebook FB下跌3.70%、Apple AAPL下跌1.59%、Netflix NFLX下挫4.17%。衛生清潔用品巨擘高露潔-棕欖公司 CL下挫6.64%,因上季每股盈餘不如分析師原先預期。英特爾 INTC勁揚3.11%,因公布的財報、財測皆優於分析師預期,公司還調高了全年度的獲利展望。而超微 AMD因日前公布了令人失望的財報與財測,使得股價下挫8.51%。

日本股市週五因連日來的下跌,吸引低接買盤湧入,提振日經指數以高位開盤,但中國上證等亞股普遍走跌,且市場也擔憂本土公司的獲利,衝擊投資人的信心,拖累日經指數轉跌,終場跌0.40%或84.13點,收21,184.60點。

個股方面,富士通下挫1.99%,因富士通傳將攜手愛立信,對於5G基地台的研發和銷售進行合作。Canon暴跌5.62%,因單眼相機市場萎縮規模超乎預期,Canon下砍財務預測。機器人大廠Fanuc重挫2.16%、安川電機大跌4.86%、機器人關鍵零件「減速機」大廠Harmonic暴跌5.46%,因貿易戰影響,日本機器人出貨額首度陷入萎縮。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收跌,最低觸及111.375一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格支撐進一步考驗111.200一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力目標112關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,一度觸及日低1.13343一線後反彈。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.13400一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標看向1.14700一線。

 

GBPUSD

 

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,震蕩交投於1.28一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標走平。後市看來,價格支撐依舊看向1.27000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力目標看向1.29100一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜震蕩微升,最高探至1243一線後全數回吐日內升幅。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,金價阻力目標依舊指向1240一線。下行方面,金價關鍵支撐考驗1210一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,最低探至66.18一線後反彈走高。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗66.40一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向68.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜微幅收跌,盤中一度觸及新低至24413一線後反彈收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步阻力目標依舊考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐下看24500一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,最低觸及20790一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,價格初步支撐依舊考驗21000一線,上方阻力位看向22200一線。

 

26 10 月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, October 25, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24615 2665.00 6837.50
-2.41% -3.09% -4.43%

The sell-off in U.S. stocks accelerated, wiping out gains for the year in both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as mixed corporate earnings and weak housing data fueled anxiety that rising prices will crimp economic growth. A slew of results this week is expected to throw spotlight on the risk of a slowdown in China, the world’s No. 2 economy, spilling beyond its borders and eating into U.S corporate profits. Chipmakers, already struggling with oversupply and reliant on China for a significant portion of profit, dropped after Texas Instruments forecast weak current quarter and STMicroelectronics signaled slowing demand in China. The Dow was down 251.89 points, or 2.41 percent, the S&P 500 .SPX was down 32.76points, or 3.09 percent and the NASDAQ was down 119.68 points, or 4.43 percent yesterday. While earnings from S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased about 22 percent in the third quarter, 2018 is seen as a peak for the profit cycle.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

German GfK Consumer Confidence 06:00 10.5 10.6

oct

German IFO Business Climate 08:00 103.1 103.7

oct

European Central Bank Rate Decision 11:45 0.00% 0.00%

oct

ECB Marginal Lending Facility 11:45 0.25% 0.25%

sep

U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance 12:30 -$75.1b -$75.8b

sep

U.S Durable Goods Orders 12:30 -1.5% 4.4%

oct

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 213k 210k

oct

U.S Continuing Claims 12:30 1660k 1640k

sep

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 14:00   -2.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.41% to hit a new 3-months low. The best performers of the session were Procter & Gamble Company, which rose 2.64% or 2.30 points to trade at 89.46 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 1.31% or 4.60 points to end at 354.65 and Coca-Cola Company was up 0.80% or 0.37 points to 46.73 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were United Technologies Corporation, which fell 6.11% or 7.95 points to trade at 122.07 at the close. Caterpillar Inc. declined 5.58% or 6.64 points to end at 112.34 and Microsoft Corporation was down 5.35% or 5.78 points to 102.32.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 4.43%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were National American University which rose 115.69%, Clementia Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was up 40.23% to settle at 14.50 and XpresSpa Group Inc. which gained 28.90% to close at 0.199. The worst performers were Ameri Holdings Inc. which was down 60.69% to 0.41 in late trade, Travelzoo Inc. which lost 31.33% to settle at 8.00 and Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which was down 28.42% to 4.610 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices yesterday clawed back some of their hefty losses from the day before as the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran came back into focus. U.S crude futures were at $66.58 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Tuesday that despite expected supply disruptions from U.S sanctions against Iran that kick in from Nov. 4, Saudi Arabia would step up to meet any demand that materializes to ensure customers are satisfied. In China, Iran’s biggest oil buyer, the Bank of Kunlun is set to stop handling payments from the Islamic Republic next month, appearing to bow to U.S pressure. Kunlun is controlled by the financial arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp and is the main official channel for money flows between China and Iran. With financial ties between the two countries effectively severed from November, Chinese oil firms will need to find alternatives to Iran’s crude. China took in 800,000 barrels per day from Iran in August.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eased yesterday as the dollar firmed and speculators locked in profits from a more than three-month peak hit in the previous session. Losses were modest, however, as gold got support from investors looking for insurance from potential further downside in stock markets after five days in the red. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,228.06 an ounce. U.S gold futures were down 0.4 percent at $1,231.50 an ounce. On Tuesday, the precious metal touched its highest since July 17 at $1,239.68 as investors took cover from a stock selloff. The dollar index versus a basket of currencies rebounded 0.4 percent and hit its highest since Aug. 17 at 96.53. The most important reason is a little bit of a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which has a negative effect on gold. On top of that, following a strong performance we had in gold in the past few days, this may be a little bit of profit taking, although this should not be the end of the recovery in gold. Gold prices have gained more than 6 percent after falling to $1,159.96 an ounce in mid-August, their lowest since January last year. After reaching a three-month high, gold is taking a breath but the environment remains positive for bullion, with growing investor interest for the precious metal among those betting on further corrections of stock markets increases. World stocks steadied after falling for five straight days, pressured by earnings disappointment, concerns over Italy’s budget and worries that world economic growth is losing steam. Gold is focusing on the risk aversion creeping into the market, especially reflected in the weakness seen in global stock markets. Dollar-denominated gold is often used as an alternative investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. If there is a correction, then $1,210 is a good support zone; breaching this support may lead gold to fall further towards $1,195, which is less likely in the current scenario. Silver was down 0.5 percent at $14.66 an ounce, while platinum slid 0.9 percent to $823 an ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures fell 2 percent yesterday, dropping below $5 a bushel for the first time in nearly six weeks as analysts cited technical selling mixed with worries about U.S export prospects.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25239 25335 24508 24615 -630
S & P 500 SPM18 2745 2749.75 2652.25 2665 -81.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7135.75 7174 6785.5 6837.5 -303.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25391 25649 25173 25208 -122
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22145 22205 21885 22045 115
FTSE 100 FTH18 6977.5 7022.5 6863.5 6867 -109.5
Gold GCJ18 1233.7 1237.2 1228.1 1236.3 3.4
Silver SIK18 1476.5 1482 1465 1469 -5.5
Copper HGK18 276.15 280.35 274.3 274.55 -1.45
Crude Oil CLK18 66.12 67.68 66.01 66.36 0.31
Wheat WK18 509.75 510.25 496.5 499 -9.75
Soybeans SK18 855.5 856.5 849.75 850.25 -6.25
Corn CK18 369 369 367.5 367.75 -2

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 23477 23992 24304 24819 25131 25646 25958
SPM18 2530.75 2591.50 2628.25 2689.00 2725.75 2786.50 2823.25
NDM18 6302.17 6543.83 6690.67 6932.33 7079.17 7320.83 7467.67
HSH18 24562 24867 25038 25343 25514 25819 25990
NKH18 21565 21725 21885 22045 22205 22365 22525
FTH18 6653.83 6758.67 6812.83 6917.67 6971.83 7076.67 7130.83
GCJ18 1221.43 1224.77 1230.53 1233.87 1239.63 1242.97 1248.73
SIK18 1445.00 1455.00 1462.00 1472.00 1479.00 1489.00 1496.00
HGK18 266.40 270.35 272.45 276.40 278.50 282.45 284.55
CLK18 64.02 65.01 65.69 66.68 67.36 68.35 69.03
WK18 479.83 488.17 493.58 501.92 507.33 515.67 521.08
SK18 841.08 845.42 847.83 852.17 854.58 858.92 861.33
CK18 365.67 366.58 367.17 368.08 368.67 369.58 370.17

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-10-26

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週四(10月25日)持續上漲,因德拉基講話拖累歐鎊齊跌,加上經濟數據助美元指數持續攀升,盤中最高觸及96.75。數據方面,雖然美國公佈的上週初請失業金人數為21.5萬人,高於前值的21萬人,但10月13日當週續請失業金人數創四十五年以來新低,表明就業市場情況正在持續收緊。而9月成屋簽約銷售指數月率為0.5%,高於前值的-1.8%,顯示房地產市場有所回暖。此外,歐元區ECB公佈利率決定不變,最終美元指數報收於96.60。

現貨黃金週四收跌,亞市早盤開於1233.10美元/金衡盎司後金價震盪上攻,錄得日內高點1238.70美元/金衡盎司後回落。歐市金價跳水,直線下墜之後轉盤整,多空激戰。美市金價震盪延續,空方發力,金價再次跳水,錄得日內低點1227.85美元/金衡盎司後反彈,金價再度震盪上行,終收於1231.75美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週四收漲0.62美元,或0.93%,報67.02美元/桶。因OPEC暗示或再度減產令原油多頭信心大振,同時股市反彈也有效緩和了近期的緊張情緒,不過美元走高依然限制著油價的上行空間。

美國股市週四收盤跳升,納斯達克指數錄得3月以來的最大單日百分比漲幅,因微軟發布樂觀業績,推動科技股反彈,投資者搶購超賣股票。道瓊工業指數收漲401.13點,或1.63%,至24,984.55點;標普500指數收漲49.47點,或1.86%,至2,705.57點;納斯達克指數收漲209.94點,或2.95%,至7,318.34點。

個股方面,微軟MSFT漲5.98%,該公司公佈的季度營收和獲利均超過分析師的普遍預期。福特汽車F上漲9.90%,因其財報提升了第四季業績強勁的希望,帶動非必需消費品板塊上漲。電動汽車生產商特斯拉TSLA收盤大漲9.14%,該公司宣布收穫了公司歷史上的最大季度盈利。康卡斯特CMCSA收高5.04%,該公司宣布第三季度新增36.3萬名互聯網用戶,並宣布旗下NBCUniversal的營收意外強勁增長。推特TWTR大漲15.47%,該公司宣布第三財季盈利與營收均超出預期,但每月活躍用戶數量減少了9%,降幅超出分析師預期。奧馳亞MO收高1.36%,該公司宣布營收與盈利超出預期,但為了解決未成年人吸煙問題,公司擬將某些電子香煙產品下市。

日本股市週四因美股前日(10月24日)暴跌,引發市場恐慌,拖累日經指數開盤後隨即跳空大跌,且跌幅一路擴大,終場跌3.72%或822.45點,收21,268.73點。

個股方面,夏普崩跌9.04%,因颱風打亂物流,液晶面板/電子零件出口一度停滯、採購延遲,夏普下砍今年度上半年營收目標。富士軟片大跌4.51%,市場競爭激烈,導致價格下滑,富士軟片中國車載相機用鏡頭廠傳出售給歐菲。連接器廠SMK崩跌10.21%,因同業競爭激烈,智慧手機用連接器訂單低迷,SMK下砍財測、本業將陷虧損。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜震蕩收漲,一度觸及日低至111.807一線後反彈。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格依舊考驗關鍵支撐112.000關口,跌破則進一步下看111.800一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力目標112.900一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續收跌,一度反彈至1.14314一線後承壓回落。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐進一步考驗1.13300一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標看向1.14700一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜延續收跌,最低探至1.27965一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格支撐進一步看向1.27000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力目標看向1.29100一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜震蕩微跌,窄幅交投於1232一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱持平,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力目標依舊指向1240一線。下行方面,金價關鍵支撐考驗1210一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,最高觸及67.63一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗65.00一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向68.70一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜反彈收漲,一度上破25000關口未果。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上。後市來看,價格初步阻力目標依舊考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐下看24500一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收漲,一度觸及新低至21190一線後反彈。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標位於超賣區附近。後市來看,價格初步支撐依舊考驗21200一線,上方阻力位看向22200一線。

 

25 10 月 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Thursday, October 25, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24615 2665.00 6837.50
-2.41% -3.09% -4.43%

The sell-off in U.S. stocks accelerated, wiping out gains for the year in both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as mixed corporate earnings and weak housing data fueled anxiety that rising prices will crimp economic growth. A slew of results this week is expected to throw spotlight on the risk of a slowdown in China, the world’s No. 2 economy, spilling beyond its borders and eating into U.S corporate profits. Chipmakers, already struggling with oversupply and reliant on China for a significant portion of profit, dropped after Texas Instruments forecast weak current quarter and STMicroelectronics signaled slowing demand in China. The Dow was down 251.89 points, or 2.41 percent, the S&P 500 .SPX was down 32.76points, or 3.09 percent and the NASDAQ was down 119.68 points, or 4.43 percent yesterday. While earnings from S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased about 22 percent in the third quarter, 2018 is seen as a peak for the profit cycle.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

German GfK Consumer Confidence 06:00 10.5 10.6

oct

German IFO Business Climate 08:00 103.1 103.7

oct

European Central Bank Rate Decision 11:45 0.00% 0.00%

oct

ECB Marginal Lending Facility 11:45 0.25% 0.25%

sep

U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance 12:30 -$75.1b -$75.8b

sep

U.S Durable Goods Orders 12:30 -1.5% 4.4%

oct

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 213k 210k

oct

U.S Continuing Claims 12:30 1660k 1640k

sep

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 14:00   -2.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.41% to hit a new 3-months low. The best performers of the session were Procter & Gamble Company, which rose 2.64% or 2.30 points to trade at 89.46 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 1.31% or 4.60 points to end at 354.65 and Coca-Cola Company was up 0.80% or 0.37 points to 46.73 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were United Technologies Corporation, which fell 6.11% or 7.95 points to trade at 122.07 at the close. Caterpillar Inc. declined 5.58% or 6.64 points to end at 112.34 and Microsoft Corporation was down 5.35% or 5.78 points to 102.32.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 4.43%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were National American University which rose 115.69%, Clementia Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was up 40.23% to settle at 14.50 and XpresSpa Group Inc. which gained 28.90% to close at 0.199. The worst performers were Ameri Holdings Inc. which was down 60.69% to 0.41 in late trade, Travelzoo Inc. which lost 31.33% to settle at 8.00 and Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which was down 28.42% to 4.610 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices yesterday clawed back some of their hefty losses from the day before as the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran came back into focus. U.S crude futures were at $66.58 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Tuesday that despite expected supply disruptions from U.S sanctions against Iran that kick in from Nov. 4, Saudi Arabia would step up to meet any demand that materializes to ensure customers are satisfied. In China, Iran’s biggest oil buyer, the Bank of Kunlun is set to stop handling payments from the Islamic Republic next month, appearing to bow to U.S pressure. Kunlun is controlled by the financial arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp and is the main official channel for money flows between China and Iran. With financial ties between the two countries effectively severed from November, Chinese oil firms will need to find alternatives to Iran’s crude. China took in 800,000 barrels per day from Iran in August.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eased yesterday as the dollar firmed and speculators locked in profits from a more than three-month peak hit in the previous session. Losses were modest, however, as gold got support from investors looking for insurance from potential further downside in stock markets after five days in the red. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,228.06 an ounce. U.S gold futures were down 0.4 percent at $1,231.50 an ounce. On Tuesday, the precious metal touched its highest since July 17 at $1,239.68 as investors took cover from a stock selloff. The dollar index versus a basket of currencies rebounded 0.4 percent and hit its highest since Aug. 17 at 96.53. The most important reason is a little bit of a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which has a negative effect on gold. On top of that, following a strong performance we had in gold in the past few days, this may be a little bit of profit taking, although this should not be the end of the recovery in gold. Gold prices have gained more than 6 percent after falling to $1,159.96 an ounce in mid-August, their lowest since January last year. After reaching a three-month high, gold is taking a breath but the environment remains positive for bullion, with growing investor interest for the precious metal among those betting on further corrections of stock markets increases. World stocks steadied after falling for five straight days, pressured by earnings disappointment, concerns over Italy’s budget and worries that world economic growth is losing steam. Gold is focusing on the risk aversion creeping into the market, especially reflected in the weakness seen in global stock markets. Dollar-denominated gold is often used as an alternative investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. If there is a correction, then $1,210 is a good support zone; breaching this support may lead gold to fall further towards $1,195, which is less likely in the current scenario. Silver was down 0.5 percent at $14.66 an ounce, while platinum slid 0.9 percent to $823 an ounce.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures fell 2 percent yesterday, dropping below $5 a bushel for the first time in nearly six weeks as analysts cited technical selling mixed with worries about U.S export prospects.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25239 25335 24508 24615 -630
S & P 500 SPM18 2745 2749.75 2652.25 2665 -81.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7135.75 7174 6785.5 6837.5 -303.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25391 25649 25173 25208 -122
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22145 22205 21885 22045 115
FTSE 100 FTH18 6977.5 7022.5 6863.5 6867 -109.5
Gold GCJ18 1233.7 1237.2 1228.1 1236.3 3.4
Silver SIK18 1476.5 1482 1465 1469 -5.5
Copper HGK18 276.15 280.35 274.3 274.55 -1.45
Crude Oil CLK18 66.12 67.68 66.01 66.36 0.31
Wheat WK18 509.75 510.25 496.5 499 -9.75
Soybeans SK18 855.5 856.5 849.75 850.25 -6.25
Corn CK18 369 369 367.5 367.75 -2

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 23477 23992 24304 24819 25131 25646 25958
SPM18 2530.75 2591.50 2628.25 2689.00 2725.75 2786.50 2823.25
NDM18 6302.17 6543.83 6690.67 6932.33 7079.17 7320.83 7467.67
HSH18 24562 24867 25038 25343 25514 25819 25990
NKH18 21565 21725 21885 22045 22205 22365 22525
FTH18 6653.83 6758.67 6812.83 6917.67 6971.83 7076.67 7130.83
GCJ18 1221.43 1224.77 1230.53 1233.87 1239.63 1242.97 1248.73
SIK18 1445.00 1455.00 1462.00 1472.00 1479.00 1489.00 1496.00
HGK18 266.40 270.35 272.45 276.40 278.50 282.45 284.55
CLK18 64.02 65.01 65.69 66.68 67.36 68.35 69.03
WK18 479.83 488.17 493.58 501.92 507.33 515.67 521.08
SK18 841.08 845.42 847.83 852.17 854.58 858.92 861.33
CK18 365.67 366.58 367.17 368.08 368.67 369.58 370.17

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)     

                                                              

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-10-25

 

   
Market Summary
美元指數週三(10月24日)強勢反彈,盤中最高觸及96.54,但一則消息令多頭銳氣受挫。因加拿大央行宣布加息25個基點,並從聲明中刪除了有關“漸進”的措辭,暗示12月份有可能會再次加息。決議公佈之後,美元/加元重挫逾百點至1.30關口下方。數據方面,美國日內公佈的9月新屋銷售銷售為55.3萬戶,創2016年12月以來新低,低於預期和前值,新屋銷售環比連降四個月。而美國10月Markit服務業PMI初值為54.7,以及美國10月Markit製造業PMI初值為55.9,皆高於前值與預期,Markit首席經濟學家威廉姆森稱PMI數據顯示美國經濟再度獲得增長勢頭,主要PMI表現與經濟增速大體相符,預計下一季度將繼續迎來穩健的增長,最終美元指數報收於96.43。

現貨黃金週三收漲,亞市早盤開於1230.20美元/金衡盎司後金價小幅上漲,之後轉盤整。歐市金價轉跌,錄得日內低點1225.35美元/金衡盎司後反彈,金價震盪上行。美市多頭加大上攻力度,錄得日內高點1233.40美元/金衡盎司後轉盤整,終收於1233.10美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收漲0.33美元,或0.50%,報66.40美元/桶。美國原油庫存報告好壞參半,但股市下跌以及美元強勢走高依然令油價承壓。此外,沙特失踪記者事件令其與美國關係迅速惡化,市場擔心可能會引發經濟制裁,這令中東地區的原油供應面臨威脅。

美國股市週三收盤重挫,道指和標普500指數悉數回吐年內漲幅,因芯片生產商公佈的財測令人失望,且新屋銷售數據疲弱,引發對經濟和企業獲利增長的擔憂。道瓊工業指數收跌608.01點,或2.41%,至24,583.42點;標普500指數收跌84.59點,或3.09%,至2,656.10點;納斯達克指數下跌329.14點,或4.43%,至7,108.40點。

個股方面,德州儀器TXN重挫8.22%及AT&T T重挫8.08%,因受到財報不佳影響重挫,而波音BA則因財報優於預期,帶動道瓊早盤上揚,該公司調高全年獲利與銷售前瞻指引,促使股價收漲1.31%。Netflix NFLX因為開支不斷增加、舉債引發市場疑慮,加上蘋果、亞馬遜等各大企業紛紛搶食影音串流市場,拖累該公司股價重跌9.40%。

日本股市週三收漲,因前日(10月23日)暴跌,吸引低接買盤湧入,且中國上證指數今日走揚,改善投資人信心,提振日經指數上漲,最終收漲0.37%或80.40點,收22,091.18點。

個股方面,日本電產Nidec勁揚1.60%,因應貿易戰,Nidec車用/家電用零件部分生產將從中國轉移至墨西哥。日本工具機廠走跌,其中Makino重挫1.88%、Okuma下跌0.70%、DMG森精機重挫2.37%,因日本9月來自中國的工具機訂單額掉2成。自行車零組件巨擘Shimano下跌1.04%,因供應不足,Shimano下砍今年度營收目標。SUMCO則狂瀉10.80%,因矽晶圓廠商擴產超預期,恐陷入供應過剩,SUMCO評等遭降、目標價被大砍。夏普漲0.38%、Sony漲0.39%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續回落,一度反彈至112.728一線後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市看來,價格依舊考驗關鍵支撐112.000關口,跌破則進一步下看111.700一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力目標112.800一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜大幅收跌,刷新兩個月低位至1.13780一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐進一步考驗1.13400一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標看向1.14900一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜大幅收跌,最低探至1.28659一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格支撐下看1.28000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力目標看向1.29700一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,高位交投於1233一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱溫和,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,金價阻力目標依舊指向1240一線。下行方面,金價關鍵支撐考驗1210一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收升,一度反彈至67.70一線后收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價支撐目標考驗64.70一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位看向67.40一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅跳水,最低探至24508一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,價格初步阻力目標考驗25000關口。下行方面,價格支撐下看前低24100一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收跌,刷新新低至21340一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下逼近超賣區。後市來看,價格初步支撐依舊考驗21100一線,上方阻力位看向22200一線。

 

 

24 10 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 24, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Yen strengthened yesterday as a slew of geopolitical risk factors bolstered safe haven demand

·      The euro fell after the European Commission rejected Italy’s 2019 budget

·      The British Pound traded up in the European session before retracing those gains later in the day

·      The Canadian dollar traded sideways within a well-defined range yesterday

The U.S Dollar fell yesterday after Wall Street opened lower, spurring a risk-off move that benefited the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc against the greenback. The stock market has everyone’s attention. The dollar/yen is moved tick-to-tick with stocks. Although the dollar is also considered a safe-haven currency, weakness in U.S. markets will nevertheless disadvantage the greenback against other safe havens. Markets are starting to wonder if the good times generated from Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation are in the rear view mirror and what’s ahead is fallout from protectionist policies, and that has started to eat into corporate earnings. The euro fell after the European Commission rejected Italy’s 2019 budget and said it will ask Rome to present a new document within three weeks, according to reports from Italian news agency AGI, citing EU sources. The dispute over Italy’s spending plans and doubts about the leadership of Britain’s prime minister, who is mired in a stalemate over Brexit, has investors focusing on the likelihood of further political turmoil in Europe. Worries about Italy’s spending have bred some doubt about the European Central Bank’s plan to raise interest rates next summer, and that too has hurt the euro. Britain’s pound traded up in the European session before retracing those gains after falling precipitously on Monday over fears that the Northern Ireland border issue and disagreements within Britain’s ruling Conservatives over Brexit could cause Prime Minister Theresa May to face a serious leadership challenge. The yen strengthened yesterday as a slew of geopolitical risk factors bolstered safe haven demand for the Japanese currency, while the dollar dipped against a currency basket. A rally in Chinese equities reversed overnight, pulling down European stocks and U.S futures amid renewed worries over a host of economic and geopolitical issues. Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war and political uncertainty in Europe also weighed. The Japanese currency is often sought by investors for its relative safety during periods of economic or geopolitical uncertainty.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
07:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (OCT) Medium   53.4 53.7
07:30 Markit Germany Services PMI (OCT) Medium   55.5 55.9
08:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (OCT) Medium   53 53.2
08:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (OCT) Medium   54.5 54.7
08:30 U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase (SEP) Medium   39000 39402
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 19) Medium     -7.1%
13:00 U.S House Price Index (MoM) (AUG) Medium   0.3% 0.2%
13:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (OCT) Medium   55.5 55.6
13:45 Markit US Services PMI (OCT) Medium   54 53.5
14:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision (OCT 24) High   1.75% 1.50%
14:00 U.S New Home Sales (MoM) (SEP) Medium   -0.6% 3.5%
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (OCT 19) Medium   3000k 6490k
18:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Medium      
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance (SEP) Medium   -1365m -1484m

 

Euro

The single currency ended yesterday’s session slightly higher. Euro zone consumer sentiment rose slightly in October, against expectations of a decline, according to figures released yesterday. The European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale increased to -2.7 points in October from -2.9 points in September. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1438 and a high of 1.1492 before closing the day around 1.1469 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair came under a renewed selling pressure in the early trading hours yesterday and fell to a fresh five-day low before recovering slightly. With the flight-to-safety becoming the primary driver of the market action yesterday, the JPY stays strong against its peers. The US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in a tight range Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.93 and a high of 112.82 before closing the day around 112.42 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rallied to the top of the leaderboard yesterday as the pendulum swung back in favor of a Brexit deal being struck by year-end. The British Pound remains highly attuned to sentiment on Brexit talks, and news of progress inevitably has seen the currency attract a bid. The market is again showing Brexit deal optimism. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2935 and a high of 1.3042 before closing the day at 1.2928 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower earlier yesterday as oil and stock prices declined, although the loonie traded in a narrow range ahead of a Bank of Canada interest rate decision today. Canada runs a current account deficit and exports many commodities, including oil, so its economy could be hurt if the global flow of trade or capital slows. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3073 and a high of 1.3120 before closing the day at 1.3081 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has endured a soft start to the week after the government lost a one-seat majority in parliament and as the U.S criticized China’s response to efforts at de-escalating the so called trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Australia’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives Saturday. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7053 and a high of 0.7088 before closing the day at 0.7086 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.27%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.20%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.29%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.01%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 23, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14644 1.14923 1.14381 1.14697 0.0007
USD/JPY 112.807 112.822 111.934 112.424 -0.3800
GBP/USD 1.29589 1.30425 1.29352 1.29822 0.0018
USD/CHF 0.99577 0.99687 0.9936 0.9947 -0.0012
USD/CAD 1.30988 1.312 1.30737 1.30817 -0.0016
EUR/JPY 129.341 129.357 128.189 128.966 -0.3510
GBP/JPY 146.227 146.38 145.265 145.967 -0.2890
CHF/JPY 113.247 113.275 112.454 112.991 -0.2440
AUD/JPY 79.585 79.884 79.01 79.637 -0.2290
EUR/GBP 0.88408 0.88457 0.87964 0.88338 -0.0005
EUR/CHF 1.14171 1.14278 1.1395 1.14103 -0.0006
GBP/CHF 1.29083 1.29801 1.28912 1.29144 0.0001

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1387 1.1413 1.1441 1.1467 1.1495 1.1521 1.1550
USD/JPY 111.08 111.51 111.96 112.39 112.85 113.28 113.74
GBP/USD 1.2823 1.2879 1.2931 1.2987 1.3038 1.3094 1.3145
USD/CHF 0.9900 0.9918 0.9932 0.9951 0.9965 0.9983 0.9998
USD/CAD 1.3017 1.3046 1.3064 1.3092 1.3110 1.3138 1.3156
EUR/JPY 127.15 127.67 128.32 128.84 129.49 130.01 130.65
GBP/JPY 144.25 144.76 145.36 145.87 146.48 146.99 147.59
CHF/JPY 111.72 112.09 112.54 112.91 113.36 113.73 114.18
AUD/JPY 78.26 78.64 79.14 79.51 80.01 80.38 80.88
EUR/GBP 0.8756 0.8776 0.8805 0.8825 0.8854 0.8875 0.8904
EUR/CHF 1.1361 1.1378 1.1394 1.1411 1.1427 1.1444 1.1460
GBP/CHF 1.2788 1.2840 1.2877 1.2929 1.2966 1.3017 1.3055

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

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