27 9 月 2018

Daily Market View

              

Daily Market View

Thursday, September 27, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26420 2911.50 7590.00
-0.01% +0.03% +0.13%

U.S stocks fell and Treasuries rose after the Federal Reserve signaled it’ll keep raising interest rates even as inflation remains tepid. The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent, with the bulk of losses coming in the final 20 minutes of trading. Equities earlier gained after the central bank suggested inflation remained tepid, only to reverse as Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed could raise rates past the perceived neutral level. He also raised concern about fiscal policy, calling its path “unsustainable.” The dollar was little changed after swinging between small gains and losses. Powell addressed financial markets directly in his comments, saying that officials “judged the overall vulnerabilities to be moderate” while acknowledging some asset prices are in the “upper reach of their historical ranges.” American equities closed Friday at a record, while the 10-year yield rose to near its highest of the year. Oil prices hit a four-year high before pulling back. The Fed’s statement provided ammunition for hawks and doves alike as investors parsed the language for clues on monetary policy.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo 06:35    

sep

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:00 2.0% 2.0%

aug

U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance 12:30 -$70.6b -$72.2b

2Q

U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) 12:30 4.2% 4.2%

2Q

U.S Personal Consumption 12:30 3.8% 3.8%

aug

U.S Durable Goods Orders 12:30 1.9% -1.7%

 

ECB President Draghi Addresses ESRB Conference in Frankfurt 13:30    

 

BOE’s Carney chairs panel in Frankfurt 14:00    

aug

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 14:00   -0.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.40%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were International Business Machines, which rose 1.81% or 2.70 points to trade at 151.61 at the close. Meanwhile, Walt Disney Company added 1.39% or 1.58 points to end at 115.21 and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. was up 1.04% or 0.75 points to 72.96 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were American Express Company, which fell 1.69% or 1.86 points to trade at 108.01 at the close. Dow DuPont Inc. declined 1.56% or 1.06 points to end at 66.89 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was down 1.56% or 3.62 points to 228.88.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 0.21%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were CDTi Advanced Materials Inc. which rose 47.37% to 2.8000, Sphere 3D Corp which was up 37.18% to settle at 0.380 and Aldeyra which gained 34.85% to close at 13.35. The worst performers were Jaguar Health Inc. which was down 36.90% to 1.060 in late trade, FlexShopper Inc. which lost 27.23% to settle at 0.851 and Ultra Petroleum Corp which was down 23.22% to 0.975 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices eased yesterday after U.S data showed a surprise build in domestic crude inventories, but an impending drop in Iranian exports kept Brent futures above $80 a barrel and on track for a fifth straight quarterly gain. U.S. crude futures ended Wednesday’s session down 71 cents, or 1 percent, at $71.57 a barrel. U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week to Sept. 21, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Analysts had expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Refinery crude runs fell by 901,000 barrels per day, EIA data showed. Still, the oil market is bracing for a hit to global supplies from renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran. Brent remains on course for its fifth consecutive quarterly increase, the longest stretch since early 2007 when a six-quarter run led to a record-high price of $147.50 a barrel. We continue to expect that the decline in Iran exports will reach 1.4 million barrels per day.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices rose today as investors looked for bargains after the metal fell to a two-week low in the previous session following a U.S interest rate hike and as limited gains in the dollar after the decision supported demand for the metal. Spot gold had risen 0.4 percent to $1,198.22 an ounce. On Wednesday, the metal touched its lowest since Sept. 11 at $1,190.13 an ounce. Spot gold prices have closed in a range between $1,210 and $1,190 an ounce since Aug. 28. U.S. gold futures were up 0.3 percent at $1,202.10 an ounce. As expected the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year yesterday and left intact its plans to steadily tighten monetary policy, as it forecast that the U.S. economy would enjoy at least three more years of growth. The fact that the Fed didn’t come out as overly hawkish meant there was some positivity felt through emerging market currencies. This may be playing in gold being gingerly bought. Meanwhile, the dollar steadied against its peers as the small boost it received from the Fed interest rate hike faded, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields reducing support for the greenback. The Fed statement did not have much of an impact on the dollar and so we would venture to guess that the greenback could resume a little lower over the course of the next week or two, possibly giving gold an element of support. However, there is little evidence that gold’s tight trading range will change anytime soon. Gold is sensitive to higher interest rates because they boost the dollar, making bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Gold has fallen more than 12 percent since hitting a peak in April against a backdrop of trade disputes and as the rising U.S. interest rates have cut demand for non-interest bearing bullion. Meanwhile, China on Wednesday unveiled plans to cut tariffs for products including machinery, electrical equipment, and textile products beginning on Nov. 1, as the country braces for an escalating trade war with the United States. Silver rose 1.1 percent to $14.44 an ounce.

 

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybeans are recovering after it fell last week to its lowest price in nearly 10 years. Bargain buying and a major sale of American soy to Mexico yesterday helped lift U.S soybean futures for the second day.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, September 26, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26521 26624 26366 26420 -99
S & P 500 SPM18 2922.25 2935.75 2907.5 2911.5 -9.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7597.75 7667.5 7577 7590 -5.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27534 28032 27534 27814 351
Nikkei 225 NKH18 23840 24025 23825 23985 245
FTSE 100 FTH18 7466.5 7484.5 7448 7448.5 8
Gold GCJ18 1205.6 1206.7 1194.4 1198.2 -7.2
Silver SIK18 1448.5 1453 1433 1434 -14
Copper HGK18 282.3 284.15 281.2 281.8 -0.35
Crude Oil CLK18 72.06 72.34 71.44 72 -0.04
Wheat WK18 522 526.5 516.5 517.25 -3
Soybeans SK18 848.25 853.5 845.75 849.5 4.25
Corn CK18 363 364.25 360.75 362.25 -1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 26058 26212 26316 26470 26574 26728 26832
SPM18 2872.50 2890.00 2900.75 2918.25 2929.00 2946.50 2957.25
NDM18 7465.00 7521.00 7555.50 7611.50 7646.00 7702.00 7736.50
HSH18 27057 27295 27555 27793 28053 28291 28551
NKH18 23665 23745 23865 23945 24065 24145 24265
FTH18 7399.67 7423.83 7436.17 7460.33 7472.67 7496.83 7509.17
GCJ18 1180.53 1187.47 1192.83 1199.77 1205.13 1212.07 1217.43
SIK18 1407.00 1420.00 1427.00 1440.00 1447.00 1460.00 1467.00
HGK18 277.67 279.43 280.62 282.38 283.57 285.33 286.52
CLK18 70.61 71.03 71.51 71.93 72.41 72.83 73.31
WK18 503.67 510.08 513.67 520.08 523.67 530.08 533.67
SK18 837.92 841.83 845.67 849.58 853.42 857.33 861.17
CK18 357.08 358.92 360.58 362.42 364.08 365.92 367.58

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

英国city credit capital很自豪的宣布我们在2018年UK FOREX AWARD(英国外汇年度盛典)中荣获最佳外汇介绍经纪商奖项。该荣誉是在9月26日在伦敦举行的颁奖庆祝活动仪式上宣布的。

 

这是City Credit Capital连续第七次在UK FOREX AWARD(英国外汇年度盛典) 中获奖。在2017年,我们赢得了最佳客服奖项。

 

英国City Credit Capital为在该外汇年度盛典中所获得的奖项感到自豪,因为它是对公司员工和合作伙伴在现今极具竞争性和苛刻的金融环境中实现最高标准的努力的证明和认可。

 

UK FOREX AWARD(英国外汇年度盛典)旨在表彰全球市场表现最佳的外汇经纪商和公司。该盛典中颁布的奖项旨在奖励那些支持尖端技术,低成本交易,提供全面的市场研究工具,高级教育计划和世界级客户服务的公司。

27 9 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

September 27, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year by 25bp

·      USD/CAD broke to the upside following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement

·      After consolidating for 4 consecutive trading sessions, EUR/USD is prime for a breakout

·      Sterling, on the other hand, was surprisingly resilient due largely to the massive short exposure

 

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year by 25bp. The U.S dollar appreciated against all of the major currencies after the rate decision except for the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The inconsistency in the Dollar’s performance is a sign of risk aversion. The Dow dropped more than 100 points today while 10-year yields fell nearly 5bp. The Fed’s rate hike should have driven Treasury yields higher especially after they said not much has changed since June, but the fact that it indicates that Chairman Powell failed to satisfy the bulls. Between the central bank’s economic projections, the dot plot and Powell’s comments on the economy, there’s no question that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. Fed fund futures were unchanged after the rate decision with the market pricing in 77% chance of a follow-up move in December. Powell described the economy as strong and said he’s positive on growth. Investors were hoping for unambiguously hawkish comments from the Fed Chair and while he had a lot of good things to say, the mere mention of the possibility of rate cuts capped the rally. According to Powell, if inflation surprises to the upside, they could move faster but if the economy slows they would probably cut rates. They also oppose taking away more of their tools (in case there’s a need for them). While the risk of easing is minimal, because of these comments today’s move can’t be described as a hawkish hike (it wasn’t a dovish one either). Looking ahead, 113 could turn into a double top for USD/JPY. After consolidating for 4 consecutive trading sessions, EUR/USD is prime for a breakout. Although tomorrow’s ECB economic bulletin and Eurozone consumer confidence report are likely to be positive, we think EUR/USD is vulnerable to a correction. Shorter term charts show a strong rejection of 1.18 and if EUR/USD breaks below 1.1725, we could see a swift sell-off towards 1.1670.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) Medium   10.5 10.5
06:35 BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo High      
08:00 ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin Medium      
12:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) High   2.0% 2.0%
12:30 U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance (AUG) High   -$70.6b -$72.2b
12:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (2Q) High   4.2% 4.2%
12:30 U.S Personal Consumption (2Q) Medium   3.8% 3.8%
12:30 U.S Durable Goods Orders (AUG ) High   1.9% -1.7%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 22) Medium   210k 201k
13:30 ECB President Draghi Addresses ESRB Conference in Frankfurt High      
14:00 BOE’s Carney chairs panel in Frankfurt. High      
14:00 U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) (AUG) Medium     -0.5%
20:30 U.S Powell Makes Brief Remarks on U.S Economy at Senate Event High      
21:45 Canada Poloz Speech in New Brunswick High      
23:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (SEP) Medium   -8 -7

 

Euro

The single currency ended yesterday’s trading session lower as the dollar gained in choppy trading after the Federal Reserve raised U.S interest rates as expected for the eighth time, flagged more rate hikes and signaled the end of the “accommodative” policy era. The statement said the Fed still foresees another rate hike in December. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1724 and a high of 1.1796 before closing the day around 1.1737 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen spiked higher shortly after the release of the U.S Fed interest rate decision in reaction to the central bank’s monetary policy statement and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. That move raised the most questions with some traders saying this likely means that the Fed no longer believes its policy is accommodative. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.61 and a high of 113.11 before closing the day around 112.70 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound slipped as investors remained cautious about negotiations between Britain and the EU on a Brexit deal and as broader currency markets waited for an expected Fed interest rate hike. With little in the way of big market-moving economic data in the near-term, domestic politics and sentiment around Brexit talks remain the driver for the pound. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3136 and a high of 1.3215 before closing the day at 1.3164 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to its lowest in more than a week against the greenback as the Fed hiked interest rates and investors worried that Canada would be left out of a trade deal with its NAFTA counterparts. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shrugged off U.S pressure to quickly agree to a deal on the North American Free Trade Agreement. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2942 and a high of 1.3022 before closing the day at 1.3016 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar held firm ahead of what should be a well-flagged rise in US interest rates. The Australian Dollar traded slightly lower today in Asian session as ABS job vacancy data softened and Chinese industrial profits pulled back sharply. The US Federal Open Market Committee raised its interest rates yesterday. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7238 and a high of 0.7313 before closing the day at 0.7255 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 764 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.44%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.34%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.11%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.09%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.02%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 26, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.17636 1.17964 1.17245 1.17379 -0.0027
USD/JPY 112.958 113.117 112.613 112.709 -0.2420
GBP/USD 1.3181 1.32159 1.31363 1.31643 -0.0016
USD/CHF 0.96479 0.96998 0.96215 0.96582 0.0011
USD/CAD 1.29525 1.30229 1.29426 1.30164 0.0065
EUR/JPY 132.907 133.093 132.208 132.318 -0.5850
GBP/JPY 148.911 149.07 148.256 148.392 -0.5020
CHF/JPY 117.048 117.178 116.426 116.667 -0.3770
AUD/JPY 81.878 82.472 81.738 81.774 -0.0910
EUR/GBP 0.89217 0.89441 0.8899 0.89156 -0.0008
EUR/CHF 1.13505 1.13825 1.133 1.13387 -0.0014
GBP/CHF 1.27188 1.27773 1.26861 1.27162 -0.0002

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1638 1.1681 1.1709 1.1753 1.1781 1.1825 1.1853
USD/JPY 112.01 112.31 112.51 112.81 113.01 113.32 113.52
GBP/USD 1.3049 1.3093 1.3128 1.3172 1.3208 1.3252 1.3288
USD/CHF 0.9542 0.9582 0.9620 0.9660 0.9698 0.9738 0.9776
USD/CAD 1.2885 1.2914 1.2965 1.2994 1.3045 1.3074 1.3126
EUR/JPY 131.10 131.65 131.99 132.54 132.87 133.42 133.76
GBP/JPY 147.26 147.76 148.08 148.57 148.89 149.39 149.70
CHF/JPY 115.58 116.01 116.34 116.76 117.09 117.51 117.84
AUD/JPY 80.78 81.26 81.52 81.99 82.25 82.73 82.99
EUR/GBP 0.8850 0.8874 0.8895 0.8920 0.8940 0.8965 0.8985
EUR/CHF 1.1266 1.1298 1.1318 1.1350 1.1371 1.1403 1.1423
GBP/CHF 1.2585 1.2635 1.2676 1.2727 1.2767 1.2818 1.2858

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-09-27

 

   
Market Summary
週三(9月26日)美元指數震盪收漲。因美聯儲一如市場預期宣布加息,將基準利率上調25個基點,此次決議中的一大變化為美聯儲刪除了“貨幣政策的立場仍然是寬鬆的”這一措辭。利率決議公佈之後,美元指數在急跌急漲之間來回拉鋸,一度跌破94.00關口,最低觸及93.95,但隨後急劇反彈,再次觸及日高94.41。數據方面,美國8月新屋銷售為62.9萬戶,高於前值的62.7萬戶;MBA抵押貸款申請活動指數為2.9%,也高於前值的1.6%。最終美元指數收於94.30。

現貨黃金週三在美聯儲如期加息25個基點後短線巨震,重返1200關口下方。亞市早盤開於1200.90美元/金衡盎司後金價小幅走高,錄得日內高點1202.20美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行。歐市金價加大跌幅,延續跌勢。美市多頭反攻,金價反彈,短線巨震,衝擊高位後回落,金價跌宕起伏,之後返回跌勢,終收於1194.05美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三小幅收跌0.03美元,或0.04%,報71.97美元/桶。因美國原油庫存報告偏向利空,同時美元在美聯儲會議決議後觸低反彈也令油價承壓。數據顯示,美國EIA・周度原油庫存意外增加,為增加185.2萬桶;汽油庫存增幅也超過預期,為增加153萬桶;但餾分油庫存意外下降,為減少224.1萬桶。

美國股市週三走低,回吐稍早漲幅。因美聯儲主席鮑威爾在貨幣政策宣布後發表的言論導致利率走低,銀行股隨之走低。道瓊工業指數收跌106.93點,或0.40%,至26,385.28點;標準普爾500指數收低9.59點,或0.33%,至2,905.97點;納斯達克指數收低17.10點,或0.21%,至7,990.37點。

個股方面,標普500金融股指數 .SPSY 跌1.27%,領跌各板塊。對利率敏感的標普500公用事業股指數 .SPLRCU 和地產股指數 .SPLRCR 均下挫逾1%。而二十一世紀福克斯FOXA.O 收高1.02%,該公司將出脫手中英國天空公司(Sky)39%的持股,給美國有線電視巨擘康凱斯特(Comcast),交易金額約150億美元,歐洲最大付費電視集團全數落在康凱斯特手中。

日本股市週三收高,有關美國升息的預期提振了期貨以及迅銷和軟銀等大盤股,抵消了除權的汽車製造商等高收益類股的疲勢。日經225指數終場收漲0.39%或93.53點,至24,033.79點。

個股方面,重股迅銷及軟銀,分別上漲1.63%及1.07%。武田藥品工業勁漲1.64%,因之前大和證券將該股評級從“中性”上調至“表現優於大盤”。而汽車、銀行及券商股表現落後,豐田汽車跌1.26%,日產汽車大跌3.96%,瑞穗金融集團跌2.45%,三井住友金融集團跌2.38%,野村控股跌1.53%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜下跌,跌破113.000關口。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於112.100一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標考驗113.100一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜收跌,最低下探至1.17248一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標下行至58。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.17000一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標指向1.18300一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜震盪收跌,最低下探至1.31369一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.31300一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標位於1.32700一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜收出陰線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標位於44。後市來看,金價有下跌的可能,上方阻力位於1205.00一線,下行支撐位於1185.00一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜收出十字線,最低下探至71.47一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標位於62。後市來看,油價有可能持續區間震盪,下方支撐位於71.50一線,上方阻力位於73.00一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜收出陰線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標位於60。後市來看,價格仍有下跌的可能,上方阻力位於26600一線,下行支撐位於26300一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜收出墓碑線,最高上探至24025一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微幅縮減,RSI指標位於71。後市來看,價格仍有上漲的可能,下方支撐位於23800一線,上方阻力位於24100一線。