27 9 月 2018

Daily Market View

              

Daily Market View

Thursday, September 27, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26420 2911.50 7590.00
-0.01% +0.03% +0.13%

U.S stocks fell and Treasuries rose after the Federal Reserve signaled it’ll keep raising interest rates even as inflation remains tepid. The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent, with the bulk of losses coming in the final 20 minutes of trading. Equities earlier gained after the central bank suggested inflation remained tepid, only to reverse as Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed could raise rates past the perceived neutral level. He also raised concern about fiscal policy, calling its path “unsustainable.” The dollar was little changed after swinging between small gains and losses. Powell addressed financial markets directly in his comments, saying that officials “judged the overall vulnerabilities to be moderate” while acknowledging some asset prices are in the “upper reach of their historical ranges.” American equities closed Friday at a record, while the 10-year yield rose to near its highest of the year. Oil prices hit a four-year high before pulling back. The Fed’s statement provided ammunition for hawks and doves alike as investors parsed the language for clues on monetary policy.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo 06:35    

sep

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:00 2.0% 2.0%

aug

U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance 12:30 -$70.6b -$72.2b

2Q

U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) 12:30 4.2% 4.2%

2Q

U.S Personal Consumption 12:30 3.8% 3.8%

aug

U.S Durable Goods Orders 12:30 1.9% -1.7%

 

ECB President Draghi Addresses ESRB Conference in Frankfurt 13:30    

 

BOE’s Carney chairs panel in Frankfurt 14:00    

aug

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 14:00   -0.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.40%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were International Business Machines, which rose 1.81% or 2.70 points to trade at 151.61 at the close. Meanwhile, Walt Disney Company added 1.39% or 1.58 points to end at 115.21 and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. was up 1.04% or 0.75 points to 72.96 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were American Express Company, which fell 1.69% or 1.86 points to trade at 108.01 at the close. Dow DuPont Inc. declined 1.56% or 1.06 points to end at 66.89 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was down 1.56% or 3.62 points to 228.88.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 0.21%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were CDTi Advanced Materials Inc. which rose 47.37% to 2.8000, Sphere 3D Corp which was up 37.18% to settle at 0.380 and Aldeyra which gained 34.85% to close at 13.35. The worst performers were Jaguar Health Inc. which was down 36.90% to 1.060 in late trade, FlexShopper Inc. which lost 27.23% to settle at 0.851 and Ultra Petroleum Corp which was down 23.22% to 0.975 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices eased yesterday after U.S data showed a surprise build in domestic crude inventories, but an impending drop in Iranian exports kept Brent futures above $80 a barrel and on track for a fifth straight quarterly gain. U.S. crude futures ended Wednesday’s session down 71 cents, or 1 percent, at $71.57 a barrel. U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week to Sept. 21, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Analysts had expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Refinery crude runs fell by 901,000 barrels per day, EIA data showed. Still, the oil market is bracing for a hit to global supplies from renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran. Brent remains on course for its fifth consecutive quarterly increase, the longest stretch since early 2007 when a six-quarter run led to a record-high price of $147.50 a barrel. We continue to expect that the decline in Iran exports will reach 1.4 million barrels per day.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices rose today as investors looked for bargains after the metal fell to a two-week low in the previous session following a U.S interest rate hike and as limited gains in the dollar after the decision supported demand for the metal. Spot gold had risen 0.4 percent to $1,198.22 an ounce. On Wednesday, the metal touched its lowest since Sept. 11 at $1,190.13 an ounce. Spot gold prices have closed in a range between $1,210 and $1,190 an ounce since Aug. 28. U.S. gold futures were up 0.3 percent at $1,202.10 an ounce. As expected the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year yesterday and left intact its plans to steadily tighten monetary policy, as it forecast that the U.S. economy would enjoy at least three more years of growth. The fact that the Fed didn’t come out as overly hawkish meant there was some positivity felt through emerging market currencies. This may be playing in gold being gingerly bought. Meanwhile, the dollar steadied against its peers as the small boost it received from the Fed interest rate hike faded, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields reducing support for the greenback. The Fed statement did not have much of an impact on the dollar and so we would venture to guess that the greenback could resume a little lower over the course of the next week or two, possibly giving gold an element of support. However, there is little evidence that gold’s tight trading range will change anytime soon. Gold is sensitive to higher interest rates because they boost the dollar, making bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Gold has fallen more than 12 percent since hitting a peak in April against a backdrop of trade disputes and as the rising U.S. interest rates have cut demand for non-interest bearing bullion. Meanwhile, China on Wednesday unveiled plans to cut tariffs for products including machinery, electrical equipment, and textile products beginning on Nov. 1, as the country braces for an escalating trade war with the United States. Silver rose 1.1 percent to $14.44 an ounce.

 

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybeans are recovering after it fell last week to its lowest price in nearly 10 years. Bargain buying and a major sale of American soy to Mexico yesterday helped lift U.S soybean futures for the second day.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, September 26, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26521 26624 26366 26420 -99
S & P 500 SPM18 2922.25 2935.75 2907.5 2911.5 -9.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7597.75 7667.5 7577 7590 -5.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27534 28032 27534 27814 351
Nikkei 225 NKH18 23840 24025 23825 23985 245
FTSE 100 FTH18 7466.5 7484.5 7448 7448.5 8
Gold GCJ18 1205.6 1206.7 1194.4 1198.2 -7.2
Silver SIK18 1448.5 1453 1433 1434 -14
Copper HGK18 282.3 284.15 281.2 281.8 -0.35
Crude Oil CLK18 72.06 72.34 71.44 72 -0.04
Wheat WK18 522 526.5 516.5 517.25 -3
Soybeans SK18 848.25 853.5 845.75 849.5 4.25
Corn CK18 363 364.25 360.75 362.25 -1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 26058 26212 26316 26470 26574 26728 26832
SPM18 2872.50 2890.00 2900.75 2918.25 2929.00 2946.50 2957.25
NDM18 7465.00 7521.00 7555.50 7611.50 7646.00 7702.00 7736.50
HSH18 27057 27295 27555 27793 28053 28291 28551
NKH18 23665 23745 23865 23945 24065 24145 24265
FTH18 7399.67 7423.83 7436.17 7460.33 7472.67 7496.83 7509.17
GCJ18 1180.53 1187.47 1192.83 1199.77 1205.13 1212.07 1217.43
SIK18 1407.00 1420.00 1427.00 1440.00 1447.00 1460.00 1467.00
HGK18 277.67 279.43 280.62 282.38 283.57 285.33 286.52
CLK18 70.61 71.03 71.51 71.93 72.41 72.83 73.31
WK18 503.67 510.08 513.67 520.08 523.67 530.08 533.67
SK18 837.92 841.83 845.67 849.58 853.42 857.33 861.17
CK18 357.08 358.92 360.58 362.42 364.08 365.92 367.58

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

英国city credit capital很自豪的宣布我们在2018年UK FOREX AWARD(英国外汇年度盛典)中荣获最佳外汇介绍经纪商奖项。该荣誉是在9月26日在伦敦举行的颁奖庆祝活动仪式上宣布的。

 

这是City Credit Capital连续第七次在UK FOREX AWARD(英国外汇年度盛典) 中获奖。在2017年,我们赢得了最佳客服奖项。

 

英国City Credit Capital为在该外汇年度盛典中所获得的奖项感到自豪,因为它是对公司员工和合作伙伴在现今极具竞争性和苛刻的金融环境中实现最高标准的努力的证明和认可。

 

UK FOREX AWARD(英国外汇年度盛典)旨在表彰全球市场表现最佳的外汇经纪商和公司。该盛典中颁布的奖项旨在奖励那些支持尖端技术,低成本交易,提供全面的市场研究工具,高级教育计划和世界级客户服务的公司。

27 9 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

September 27, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year by 25bp

·      USD/CAD broke to the upside following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement

·      After consolidating for 4 consecutive trading sessions, EUR/USD is prime for a breakout

·      Sterling, on the other hand, was surprisingly resilient due largely to the massive short exposure

 

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year by 25bp. The U.S dollar appreciated against all of the major currencies after the rate decision except for the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The inconsistency in the Dollar’s performance is a sign of risk aversion. The Dow dropped more than 100 points today while 10-year yields fell nearly 5bp. The Fed’s rate hike should have driven Treasury yields higher especially after they said not much has changed since June, but the fact that it indicates that Chairman Powell failed to satisfy the bulls. Between the central bank’s economic projections, the dot plot and Powell’s comments on the economy, there’s no question that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. Fed fund futures were unchanged after the rate decision with the market pricing in 77% chance of a follow-up move in December. Powell described the economy as strong and said he’s positive on growth. Investors were hoping for unambiguously hawkish comments from the Fed Chair and while he had a lot of good things to say, the mere mention of the possibility of rate cuts capped the rally. According to Powell, if inflation surprises to the upside, they could move faster but if the economy slows they would probably cut rates. They also oppose taking away more of their tools (in case there’s a need for them). While the risk of easing is minimal, because of these comments today’s move can’t be described as a hawkish hike (it wasn’t a dovish one either). Looking ahead, 113 could turn into a double top for USD/JPY. After consolidating for 4 consecutive trading sessions, EUR/USD is prime for a breakout. Although tomorrow’s ECB economic bulletin and Eurozone consumer confidence report are likely to be positive, we think EUR/USD is vulnerable to a correction. Shorter term charts show a strong rejection of 1.18 and if EUR/USD breaks below 1.1725, we could see a swift sell-off towards 1.1670.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) Medium   10.5 10.5
06:35 BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo High      
08:00 ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin Medium      
12:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) High   2.0% 2.0%
12:30 U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance (AUG) High   -$70.6b -$72.2b
12:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (2Q) High   4.2% 4.2%
12:30 U.S Personal Consumption (2Q) Medium   3.8% 3.8%
12:30 U.S Durable Goods Orders (AUG ) High   1.9% -1.7%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 22) Medium   210k 201k
13:30 ECB President Draghi Addresses ESRB Conference in Frankfurt High      
14:00 BOE’s Carney chairs panel in Frankfurt. High      
14:00 U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) (AUG) Medium     -0.5%
20:30 U.S Powell Makes Brief Remarks on U.S Economy at Senate Event High      
21:45 Canada Poloz Speech in New Brunswick High      
23:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (SEP) Medium   -8 -7

 

Euro

The single currency ended yesterday’s trading session lower as the dollar gained in choppy trading after the Federal Reserve raised U.S interest rates as expected for the eighth time, flagged more rate hikes and signaled the end of the “accommodative” policy era. The statement said the Fed still foresees another rate hike in December. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1724 and a high of 1.1796 before closing the day around 1.1737 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen spiked higher shortly after the release of the U.S Fed interest rate decision in reaction to the central bank’s monetary policy statement and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. That move raised the most questions with some traders saying this likely means that the Fed no longer believes its policy is accommodative. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.61 and a high of 113.11 before closing the day around 112.70 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound slipped as investors remained cautious about negotiations between Britain and the EU on a Brexit deal and as broader currency markets waited for an expected Fed interest rate hike. With little in the way of big market-moving economic data in the near-term, domestic politics and sentiment around Brexit talks remain the driver for the pound. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3136 and a high of 1.3215 before closing the day at 1.3164 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to its lowest in more than a week against the greenback as the Fed hiked interest rates and investors worried that Canada would be left out of a trade deal with its NAFTA counterparts. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shrugged off U.S pressure to quickly agree to a deal on the North American Free Trade Agreement. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2942 and a high of 1.3022 before closing the day at 1.3016 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar held firm ahead of what should be a well-flagged rise in US interest rates. The Australian Dollar traded slightly lower today in Asian session as ABS job vacancy data softened and Chinese industrial profits pulled back sharply. The US Federal Open Market Committee raised its interest rates yesterday. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7238 and a high of 0.7313 before closing the day at 0.7255 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 764 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.44%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.34%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.11%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.09%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.02%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 26, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.17636 1.17964 1.17245 1.17379 -0.0027
USD/JPY 112.958 113.117 112.613 112.709 -0.2420
GBP/USD 1.3181 1.32159 1.31363 1.31643 -0.0016
USD/CHF 0.96479 0.96998 0.96215 0.96582 0.0011
USD/CAD 1.29525 1.30229 1.29426 1.30164 0.0065
EUR/JPY 132.907 133.093 132.208 132.318 -0.5850
GBP/JPY 148.911 149.07 148.256 148.392 -0.5020
CHF/JPY 117.048 117.178 116.426 116.667 -0.3770
AUD/JPY 81.878 82.472 81.738 81.774 -0.0910
EUR/GBP 0.89217 0.89441 0.8899 0.89156 -0.0008
EUR/CHF 1.13505 1.13825 1.133 1.13387 -0.0014
GBP/CHF 1.27188 1.27773 1.26861 1.27162 -0.0002

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1638 1.1681 1.1709 1.1753 1.1781 1.1825 1.1853
USD/JPY 112.01 112.31 112.51 112.81 113.01 113.32 113.52
GBP/USD 1.3049 1.3093 1.3128 1.3172 1.3208 1.3252 1.3288
USD/CHF 0.9542 0.9582 0.9620 0.9660 0.9698 0.9738 0.9776
USD/CAD 1.2885 1.2914 1.2965 1.2994 1.3045 1.3074 1.3126
EUR/JPY 131.10 131.65 131.99 132.54 132.87 133.42 133.76
GBP/JPY 147.26 147.76 148.08 148.57 148.89 149.39 149.70
CHF/JPY 115.58 116.01 116.34 116.76 117.09 117.51 117.84
AUD/JPY 80.78 81.26 81.52 81.99 82.25 82.73 82.99
EUR/GBP 0.8850 0.8874 0.8895 0.8920 0.8940 0.8965 0.8985
EUR/CHF 1.1266 1.1298 1.1318 1.1350 1.1371 1.1403 1.1423
GBP/CHF 1.2585 1.2635 1.2676 1.2727 1.2767 1.2818 1.2858

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-09-27

 

   
Market Summary
週三(9月26日)美元指數震盪收漲。因美聯儲一如市場預期宣布加息,將基準利率上調25個基點,此次決議中的一大變化為美聯儲刪除了“貨幣政策的立場仍然是寬鬆的”這一措辭。利率決議公佈之後,美元指數在急跌急漲之間來回拉鋸,一度跌破94.00關口,最低觸及93.95,但隨後急劇反彈,再次觸及日高94.41。數據方面,美國8月新屋銷售為62.9萬戶,高於前值的62.7萬戶;MBA抵押貸款申請活動指數為2.9%,也高於前值的1.6%。最終美元指數收於94.30。

現貨黃金週三在美聯儲如期加息25個基點後短線巨震,重返1200關口下方。亞市早盤開於1200.90美元/金衡盎司後金價小幅走高,錄得日內高點1202.20美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行。歐市金價加大跌幅,延續跌勢。美市多頭反攻,金價反彈,短線巨震,衝擊高位後回落,金價跌宕起伏,之後返回跌勢,終收於1194.05美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三小幅收跌0.03美元,或0.04%,報71.97美元/桶。因美國原油庫存報告偏向利空,同時美元在美聯儲會議決議後觸低反彈也令油價承壓。數據顯示,美國EIA・周度原油庫存意外增加,為增加185.2萬桶;汽油庫存增幅也超過預期,為增加153萬桶;但餾分油庫存意外下降,為減少224.1萬桶。

美國股市週三走低,回吐稍早漲幅。因美聯儲主席鮑威爾在貨幣政策宣布後發表的言論導致利率走低,銀行股隨之走低。道瓊工業指數收跌106.93點,或0.40%,至26,385.28點;標準普爾500指數收低9.59點,或0.33%,至2,905.97點;納斯達克指數收低17.10點,或0.21%,至7,990.37點。

個股方面,標普500金融股指數 .SPSY 跌1.27%,領跌各板塊。對利率敏感的標普500公用事業股指數 .SPLRCU 和地產股指數 .SPLRCR 均下挫逾1%。而二十一世紀福克斯FOXA.O 收高1.02%,該公司將出脫手中英國天空公司(Sky)39%的持股,給美國有線電視巨擘康凱斯特(Comcast),交易金額約150億美元,歐洲最大付費電視集團全數落在康凱斯特手中。

日本股市週三收高,有關美國升息的預期提振了期貨以及迅銷和軟銀等大盤股,抵消了除權的汽車製造商等高收益類股的疲勢。日經225指數終場收漲0.39%或93.53點,至24,033.79點。

個股方面,重股迅銷及軟銀,分別上漲1.63%及1.07%。武田藥品工業勁漲1.64%,因之前大和證券將該股評級從“中性”上調至“表現優於大盤”。而汽車、銀行及券商股表現落後,豐田汽車跌1.26%,日產汽車大跌3.96%,瑞穗金融集團跌2.45%,三井住友金融集團跌2.38%,野村控股跌1.53%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜下跌,跌破113.000關口。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於112.100一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標考驗113.100一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜收跌,最低下探至1.17248一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標下行至58。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.17000一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標指向1.18300一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜震盪收跌,最低下探至1.31369一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.31300一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標位於1.32700一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜收出陰線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標位於44。後市來看,金價有下跌的可能,上方阻力位於1205.00一線,下行支撐位於1185.00一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜收出十字線,最低下探至71.47一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標位於62。後市來看,油價有可能持續區間震盪,下方支撐位於71.50一線,上方阻力位於73.00一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜收出陰線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標位於60。後市來看,價格仍有下跌的可能,上方阻力位於26600一線,下行支撐位於26300一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜收出墓碑線,最高上探至24025一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微幅縮減,RSI指標位於71。後市來看,價格仍有上漲的可能,下方支撐位於23800一線,上方阻力位於24100一線。

 

 

26 9 月 2018

Daily Market View

   

 Daily Market View

 Wednesday, September 26, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26519 2921.00 7595.25
-0.23% -0.12% +0.16%

U.S stocks edged lower as oil drillers rallied with crude while industrial shares lagged behind. Treasuries fell as the Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting. U.S benchmarks were mixed, with automobile and utility shares weighing on indexes as consumer companies gained. Stocks dipped after President Donald Trump told the United Nations that the trade deficit with China “is just not acceptable,” speaking fears of greater trade tensions, before mostly recovering. Brent oil climbed to a four-year high as benchmark Treasury yields touched 3.1 percent. Riskier assets are drifting in the face of mounting political, trade and policy headwinds and investors look toward what could be a long and bruising conflict between the U.S and China following the Asian nation’s decision to call off planned talks after the latest round of tariffs. Investors are also looking forward to the Federal Reserve. The central bank’s policy meeting this week will likely see interest rates increased for the third time in 2018 and feature fresh projections for the next few years.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook 01:00   3.8

aug

U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase 08:30 39700 39584

sep

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00   1.6%

aug

U.S New Home Sales (MoM) 14:00 0.5% -1.7%

sep

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 14:30   -2057k

sep

FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 18:00 2.25% 2.00%

sep

FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 18:00 2.00% 1.75%

 

Fed’s Powell Holds Press Conference Following FOMC Decision 18:30    

sep

RBNZ Official Cash Rate 21:00 1.75% 1.75%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were McDonald’s Corporation, which rose 1.90% or 3.10 points to trade at 166.41 at the close. Meanwhile, Walt Disney Company added 0.76% or 0.86 points to end at 113.63 and Apple Inc. was up 0.63% or 1.40 points to 222.19 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation which fell 2.13% or 1.00 points to trade at 45.91 at the close. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated declined 1.44% or 3.85 points to end at 263.51 and Procter & Gamble Company was down 1.36% or 1.15 points to 83.12.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.18%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Jaguar Health Inc. which rose 158.46% to 1.680, Optical Cable Corporation which was up 30.95% to settle at 5.500 and Oasmia Pharmaceutical AB which gained 29.53% to close at 4.650. The worst performers were SAExploration Holdings Inc. which was down 51.76% to 13.850 in late trade, TG Therapeutics Inc. which lost 44.32% to settle at 5.15 and FlexShopper Inc. which was down 37.10% to 1.170 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices rose yesterday but eased off a four-year high after U.S President Donald Trump called on OPEC to increase crude output, even he as called for heavier sanctions on major oil producer Iran. Trump reiterated calls on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to pump more oil and stop raising prices in a speech before the United Nations. The so-called “OPEC+” group, which includes the likes of Russia, Oman and Kazakhstan, had met at the weekend to discuss a possible increase in crude output, but the upshot of the gathering was that the group was in no rush to do so. OPEC secretary general, said in Madrid yesterday that it is important for OPEC and its partners to cooperate to ensure they do not “fall from one crisis to another.” Prior to Trump’s remarks, oil had headed higher, with Brent hitting $82.55 per barrel, its highest since Nov. 10, 2014, on concerns about global supply shortages in the wake of U.S sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, which go into effect Nov. 4.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold edged higher yesterday as the dollar drifted ahead of a U.S Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, but bullion’s upside remained capped by strong U.S economic data that continues to underpin the greenback. The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of currencies, with an expected Federal Reserve rate rise mostly priced in by traders, who will be looking for clues on the future pace of rate hikes from the central bank. Upside scenarios for gold are if the Fed sounds a bit more dovish, but there’s not a lot of room for that at the moment. U.S data hasn’t weakened and market positioning for rate hikes is not excessively hawkish compared to the Fed. In general, market dynamics are quite weak for gold. A strong dollar makes dollar-priced gold costlier for non-U.S investors, hile rising U.S interest rates typically deter investors from buying a non-yielding asset such as gold. Spot gold gained 0.2 percent at $1,200.60 per ounce. U.S gold futures for December delivery settled up 70 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $1,205.10 per ounce. The Fed is scheduled to complete its two-day policy meeting today. Gold has fallen around 12 percent since April, hit by rising U.S. interest rates and a global trade war that threatens growth and has led investors to choose the dollar as a safe haven rather than gold. A senior Chinese official said it was difficult to proceed with trade talks with the United States while Washington was putting “a knife to China’s neck”, a day after both sides heaped fresh tariffs on each other’s goods. In wider markets, European shares and Wall Street got a lift as oil’s rise boosted energy equities. Oil’s rise will fan inflation and growth concerns in many countries, and could in the long run benefit gold. Silver gained 1.6 percent at $14.45 an ounce, earlier reaching $14.56, its highest since Aug. 31. Spot palladium increased 0.3 percent at $1,062.20 per ounce after hitting $1,068.50, its highest since late January.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures climbed to their highest prices in more than a month yesterday in a turnaround from recent declines that were driven by concerns about the U.S-China trade dispute hurting American exports. Corn and wheat pulled back after exceeding one-month highs on Monday.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, September 25, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 6620 26701 26499 26519 -89
S & P 500 SPM18 2926.5 2934 2918.25 2921 -4.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7590.5 7603 7550.25 7595.25 9.75
Hang Seng HSH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Nikkei 225 NKH18 23680 23790 23650 23740 10
FTSE 100 FTH18 7412.5 7478 7412.5 7440.5 27.5
Gold GCJ18 1203.2 1207.7 1201 1205.4 2.2
Silver SIK18 1428.5 1458.5 1423.5 1448 21
Copper HGK18 282.35 284.8 278.9 282.15 -0.15
Crude Oil CLK18 72.21 72.72 71.86 72.04 -0.19
Wheat WK18 525 525.25 516 520.25 -6
Soybeans SK18 840.25 857.75 837 845.25 4.5
Corn CK18 360 363.75 357 363.25 3

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 26243 26371 26445 26573 26647 26775 26849
SPM18 2899.08 2908.67 2914.83 2924.42 2930.58 2940.17 2946.33
NDM18 7509.92 7530.08 7562.67 7582.83 7615.42 7635.58 7668.17
HSH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
NKH18 23523 23587 23663 23727 23803 23867 23943
FTH18 7343.83 7378.17 7409.33 7443.67 7474.83 7509.17 7540.33
GCJ18 1195.00 1198.00 1201.70 1204.70 1208.40 1211.40 1215.10
SIK18 1393.17 1408.33 1428.17 1443.33 1463.17 1478.33 1498.17
HGK18 273.20 276.05 279.10 281.95 285.00 287.85 290.90
CLK18 70.83 71.35 71.69 72.21 72.55 73.07 73.41
WK18 506.50 511.25 515.75 520.50 525.00 529.75 534.25
SK18 814.83 825.92 835.58 846.67 856.33 867.42 877.08
CK18 352.17 354.58 358.92 361.33 365.67 368.08 372.42

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

26 9 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

 September 26, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar slid to the lowest levels of the day ahead of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting

·      Data yesterday showed that confidence among U.S consumers rose to its highest level in 18 years

·      Trade concerns remained to the fore after the U.S and China imposed tariffs on each other’s imports

·      ECB President Mario Draghi said the pickup in inflation in the euro zone was “relatively vigorous”

The market is pricing in a 100% chance of a quarter point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve today, which would be the third round of tightening for the central bank this year. Normally rate hikes are positive for the currency but this month their guidance could send the dollar spiraling lower. The Federal Reserve has been the most aggressive central bank this year and many investors are wondering if they’ll give consumers a break before taking rates towards 3% in 2019. Based on the futures markets, which is discounting 75% chance of another 25bp hike in December, investors don’t expect the central bank to slow down. The stock market is at a record high, the labor market is strong and so far, the impact of trade tensions has been limited. However, we are beginning to see signs of weakness. Since the central bank last met, retail sales, inflation, housing and manufacturing activity slowed. So it would behoove the Fed to take a break before barreling ahead in 2019 especially with 10-year yields hovering near 1-year highs. Since rate hike is a done deal and we don’t expect any major changes to the Fed’s forecasts. If a change were to be made, it would most likely be in an upgrade. The median forecast should stay unchanged, signaling 3 more hikes in 2019. The main question will be the pace of tightening beyond September. If Fed Chair Powell suggests that its time to slow down, the dollar could descend quickly from its highs as it would cast doubt about the rate hike in December. However, if he is unambiguously hawkish the dollar will soar against all of the major currencies. In the event of a dovish hike, the best currencies to trade will be USD/JPY and EUR/USD. For USD/JPY 113 would become a double top as the pair heads back below 112. The euro is attractive because ECB President Draghi thinks inflation is on the rise. In the event of a hawkish hike, the best currencies to trade should be AUD/USD, USD/CAD and GBP/USD. The RBA has no plans to raise interest rates this year, sterling is still vulnerable to Brexit risks and it is becoming increasingly clear that Canada won’t be able to strike a trade deal with the U.S. before the September 30th deadline. The only risk for the USD/CAD trade is that President Trump plans to hold a press conference today. He’ll be talking about the “news of the day,” which could mean either the Canada-Mexico trade deal, Kavanaugh nomination, Rosenstein’s fate or all of the above.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:00 New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook (SEP) Medium     3.8
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG) Low     5.3%
08:30 U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG) Medium   39700 39584
11:00 U MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 21) Medium     1.6%
14:00 U New Home Sales (MoM) (AUG) Medium   0.5% -1.7%
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 21) Medium     -2057k
18:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (SEP 26) High   2.25% 2.00%
18:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (SEP 26) High   2.00% 1.75%
18:30 U Fed’s Powell Holds Press Conference Following FOMC Decision High      
21:00 NRBNZ Official Cash Rate (SEP 27) High   1.75% 1.75%

 

Euro

The single currency bears are holding tight, setting the common currency up for a potential short squeeze that could turbocharge a burgeoning rally. Euro gained as the Dollar weakened ahead of a Fed meeting that is widely expected to end with an interest rate hike, as investors already have priced in two more rate increases this year and some in 2019. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1729 and a high of 1.1791 before closing the day around 1.1765 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen continued sliding against the US dollar yesterday after the BOJ released its minutes for the previous meeting. The minutes showed that a few officials are concerned about the dangers of the ongoing ultra-easy policies. The bank has retained negative interest rates for years in a bid to increase activity in the country. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.72 and a high of 112.96 before closing the day around 112.95 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound continued to gain against the US dollar yesterday, although compared to Monday the latest pound US dollar exchange rate advance is smaller. This is a continuation of the relief rally that started yesterday when Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab spoke of continuing negotiations in good faith. There was limited US economic news out yesterday. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3093 and a high of 1.3191 before closing the day at 1.3180 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher yesterday as oil prices rose, but the currency traded in a narrow range amid slow progress on talks to renew the NAFTA trade deal ahead of a U.S.-imposed deadline of the end of September. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a cautious line over talks to update the North American Free Trade Agreement. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2933 and a high of 1.2970 before closing the day at 1.2951 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has been among the hardest hit by President Donald Trump’s so-called trade war against China, given that it’s underwritten by the nation’s commodity trade with the world’s second largest economy and often serves as a surrogate for speculators seeking to express bearish views about China’s own state-managed currency.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7234 and a high of 0.7261 before closing the day at 0.7247 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.33%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.65%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.12%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.33%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.54%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 25, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.17472 1.17911 1.17295 1.17653 0.0019
USD/JPY 112.759 112.961 112.722 112.951 0.1650
GBP/USD 1.31182 1.31919 1.30931 1.31801 0.0064
USD/CHF 0.96437 0.96692 0.96341 0.96474 0.0001
USD/CAD 1.29523 1.29704 1.29337 1.29511 -0.0002
EUR/JPY 132.47 133.087 132.347 132.903 0.4350
GBP/JPY 147.953 148.997 147.784 148.894 0.9590
CHF/JPY 116.897 117.149 116.68 117.044 0.1420
AUD/JPY 81.772 82.009 81.63 81.865 0.0960
EUR/GBP 0.89533 0.89734 0.89188 0.89239 -0.0029
EUR/CHF 1.13304 1.138 1.13243 1.13524 0.0024
GBP/CHF 1.2649 1.27257 1.26425 1.27183 0.0068

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1671 1.1700 1.1733 1.1762 1.1794 1.1824 1.1856
USD/JPY 112.56 112.64 112.80 112.88 113.03 113.12 113.27
GBP/USD 1.3019 1.3056 1.3118 1.3155 1.3217 1.3254 1.3316
USD/CHF 0.9596 0.9615 0.9631 0.9650 0.9666 0.9685 0.9701
USD/CAD 1.2896 1.2915 1.2933 1.2952 1.2970 1.2988 1.3006
EUR/JPY 131.73 132.04 132.47 132.78 133.21 133.52 133.95
GBP/JPY 146.91 147.35 148.12 148.56 149.33 149.77 150.55
CHF/JPY 116.30 116.49 116.77 116.96 117.24 117.43 117.70
AUD/JPY 81.28 81.46 81.66 81.83 82.04 82.21 82.42
EUR/GBP 0.8849 0.8884 0.8904 0.8939 0.8959 0.8993 0.9013
EUR/CHF 1.1269 1.1297 1.1324 1.1352 1.1380 1.1408 1.1436
GBP/CHF 1.2582 1.2612 1.2665 1.2696 1.2749 1.2779 1.2832

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-09-26

 

   
Market Summary
週二(9月25日)美市盤中,美元指數下滑,日內最低觸及94.01,險些跌破94.00關口。全球市場聚焦美聯儲利率決議,9月加息板上釘釘,且市場似乎已經完全消化。眼下關注的則是12月加息的信號。一旦美聯儲釋放鷹派言論,美元指數恐上演絕地反擊。數據方面,美國公佈的7月房屋價格指數月率為0.2%,與前值和預期相同;9月消費者信心指數為138.4,高於預期與前值。最終美元指數收於94.15。

現貨黃金週二小幅收漲,亞市早盤開於1198.50美元/金衡盎司後金價震盪下行,錄得日內低點1196.85美元/金衡盎司後反彈,金價小幅攀升。歐市多頭上攻,延續漲勢。美市多頭加大上攻力度,錄得日內高點1203.10美元/金衡盎司後回落震盪下行,逐步走低,抹平部分漲幅,終收於1200.90美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二小幅收跌0.24美元,或0.33%,報72.00美元/桶。美國總統特朗普的言論再度令油市波動。此外,根據國際能源署(IEA)月報顯示,OPEC原油產量增幅超過伊朗因原油製裁可能出現的產量降幅,這令原油供應整體上升。

美國股市週二漲跌不一,其中石油和天然氣、消費服務和科技等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高;與此同時,公用事業、生活消費品和電信板塊等下跌的使股指走低。道瓊工業指數收跌69.84點,或0.26%,至26,492.21點;標準普爾500指數收低3.81.點,或0.13%,至2,915.56點;納斯達克指數收高14.22點,或0.18%,至8,007.47點。

個股方面,標普能源指數 .SPNY 上漲1.47%,因布蘭特原油觸及四年高位,受助於美國對伊朗出口的製裁即將生效,以及石油輸出國組織(OPEC)和俄羅斯不願意增產。而公用事業股 .SPLRCU 下滑0.88%。公用事業在低利率的環境中往往受到青睞,因為其派息穩健。費城半導體指數 .SOX 下跌1.70%,重壓標普科技指數 .SPLRCT ,此前券商Raymond James和KeyBanc下調其對一系列芯片製造商的評級。英特爾 INTC.O 跌2.13%,此前Raymond James下調其評級。

日本股市週二收高,目前市場擔心美中新一輪互徵關稅會損及全球需求,造成建築設備製造商股下挫。但芯片相關類股的漲勢抵消了建築設備製造類股的疲勢,從而扶助日經指數225上揚。日經225指數終場收漲0.29%或70.33點,至23,940.26點。

個股方面,Sony飆漲3.32%。日立將在日本停售自家品牌薄型電視、改賣Sony BRAVIA。另外,8月份日本OLED電視出貨量飆增1.5倍。東京電子(東京威力科創)和愛德萬測試(Advantest)分別大漲2.42%和3.45%,追隨隔夜美國科技股的穩健走勢。而建築設備生產商小松製作所跌1.25%,日立建機跌2.60%,因投資者對這些股票過去一週的漲幅進行獲利了結。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收漲,逼近113.000關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱溫和擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於112.400一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標考驗113.200一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,交投於1.17600一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.17000一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標指向1.18300一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜延續反彈,最高探至1.31923一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.31300一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標位於1.32700一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜微幅收漲,溫和站上1200關口。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,金價阻力目標指向1208一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐考驗1193一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收跌,最高觸及72.74一線後回落走低。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價支撐位於71.00一線。上行方面,油價初步阻力位指向73.00一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續回落,進一步技術性修正。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力目標考驗26900一線。下行方面,價格支撐看向26300一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收漲,刷新近期新高至23865一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標超買。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力目標考驗24000關口。下行方面,價格支撐看向23360一線。

 

 

 

25 9 月 2018

Daily Market View

         

Daily Market View

Tuesday, September 25, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26608 2925.50 7585.50
-0.61% -0.36% -0.01%

U.S stock index futures dropped yesterday as the latest round of Sino-U.S tariffs kicked in, with neither showing signs of backing down from a protracted trade war. The markets could be volatile and trading volumes higher as the S&P 500 sector shuffle takes effect, with the telecoms being folded into a new communications services index that will now include heavy-hitting technology stocks such as Facebook Inc., Twitter, and Alphabet. Shares of the three companies fell between 0.5 and 1 percent in premarket trading, also on renewed fears of higher regulation after a report that the White House has drafted a preliminary order to direct federal agencies to probe the business practices of social media and internet firms. U.S tariffs on some $200 billion worth of Chinese goods took effect on Monday, along with Beijing’s retaliatory duties on $60 billion worth of U.S products, which pressured trade-sensitive stocks. Boeing, the biggest U.S exporter to China, dropped 0.5 percent and Caterpillar 0.3 percent, leading the losers on the Dow Industrials before the bell.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

BOJ Kuroda speaks in Osaka 05:30    

aug

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) 06:00   3.5%

jul

U.S House Price Index (MoM) 13:00 0.3% 0.2%

jul

S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM) SA 13:00 0.1% 0.11%

jul

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) 13:00 6.2% 6.31%

jul

S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) 13:00   6.2%

sep

U.S Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 14:00 21 24

sep

U.S Consumer Confidence Index 14:00 132 133.4

sep

U.S Conf. Board Present Situation 14:00   172.2
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.68%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walt Disney Company, which rose 2.15% or 2.37 points to trade at 112.77 at the close. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil Corp added 1.68% or 1.43 points to end at 86.60 and Apple Inc. was up 1.44% or 3.13 points to 220.79 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Dow DuPont Inc., which fell 2.14% or 1.49 points to trade at 68.20 at the close. Home Depot Inc. declined 2.07% or 4.40 points to end at 207.99 and Procter & Gamble Company was down 1.81% or 1.55 points to 84.27.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.08%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Amarin Corporation PLC which rose 314.72% to 12.400, SAExploration Holdings Inc. which was up 284.34% to settle at 28.710 and TMSR Holding Company Ltd which gained 65.00% to close at 3.30. The worst performers were Altimmune Inc. which was down 46.93% to 13.900 in late trade, Astrotech Corp which lost 40.43% to settle at 3.330 and Cool Holdings Inc. which was down 36.37% to 12.090 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices jumped more than 2 percent to a four-year high yesterday after OPEC declined to announce an immediate increase in production despite calls by U.S President Donald Trump for action to raise global supply. U.S light crude was $1.25 higher at $72.03. This is the oil market’s response to the OPEC+ group’s refusal to step up its oil production. OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and its biggest oil-producer ally outside the group, Russia, on Sunday ruled out any immediate extra increase in output, effectively rebuffing a call by Trump for action to cool the market. Trump said last week that OPEC “must get prices down now!” but Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said yesterday OPEC had not responded positively to Trump’s demands. J.P. Morgan said U.S. sanctions on Iran could lead to a loss of 1.5 million bpd, while Mercuria warned that as much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market. U.S commercial crude oil inventories are at their lowest since early 2015.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold edged higher yesterday after the dollar dropped following remarks by the head of the European Central Bank, although activity was muted ahead of a U.S central bank meeting this week. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,202.59 an ounce, after declining as much as 1.3 percent on Friday. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5 percent to $1,207 an ounce. Liquidity was thin during Asian trading hours on Monday as markets in Japan and China were closed for a holiday. The dollar index fell after comments by ECB President Mario Draghi on wage growth and vigorous inflation lifted the euro. Investors remain constructive on gold after we’ve seen it consolidate for the past month. The risk to the dollar is some additional weakness, but at this stage we, have to maintain a neutral stance. Gold needed to break above $1,212 to make further progress on the upside. Investors are awaiting details from the two-day Federal Reserve meeting concluding on Wednesday, when the U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark interest rates and shed light on the path for future rate hikes. The question is what kind of wording is going to accompany that hike. Based on that, gold is unlikely to make much of a move ahead of that meeting. Gold has fallen more than 12 percent since a peak in April against a backdrop of trade disputes and as rising U.S. interest rates diminish demand for non-interest bearing bullion. The United States and China imposed fresh tariffs on each other’s goods on Monday as the world’s biggest economies showed no signs of backing down from a trade dispute that is expected to knock global economic growth. Meanwhile, speculators increased their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 18, U.S. data showed on Friday. The price would rise noticeably if sentiment were to turn and short positions were to be covered. This may happen following the Fed rate hike expected on Wednesday, as gold has often gained following a Fed rate hike in the past. Spot silver rose 0.2 percent to $14.28 an ounce.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Corn and wheat futures jumped yesterday to their highest levels in over a month amid technical buying as well as concerns about rain stalling the country’s autumn harvests.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, September 24, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26707 26737 26574 26608 -147
S & P 500 SPM18 2929.5 2930 2917.5 2925.5 -8.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7539.25 7587.25 7473.5 7585.5 34.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27787 27787 27384 27463 -470
Nikkei 225 NKH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FTSE 100 FTH18 7431 7448.5 7411 7413 -27.5
Gold GCJ18 1201.2 1208.5 1198.4 1203.2 2.2
Silver SIK18 1426 1441 1421 1427 -7.5
Copper HGK18 283.65 286.7 282.25 282.3 -3.2
Crude Oil CLK18 71.44 72.7 71.41 72.23 1.45
Wheat WK18 520.75 530.75 519.75 526.25 4.75
Soybeans SK18 840 845 838 840.75 -6.25
Corn CK18 356.25 361.5 355.5 360.25 3.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 26379 26477 26542 26640 26705 26803 26868
SPM18 2906.17 2911.83 2918.67 2924.33 2931.17 2936.83 2943.67
NDM18 7396.50 7435.00 7510.25 7548.75 7624.00 7662.50 7737.75
HSH18 26899 27142 27302 27545 27705 27948 28108
NKH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FTH18 7362.33 7386.67 7399.83 7424.17 7437.33 7461.67 7474.83
GCJ18 1188.13 1193.27 1198.23 1203.37 1208.33 1213.47 1218.43
SIK18 1398.33 1409.67 1418.33 1429.67 1438.33 1449.67 1458.33
HGK18 276.35 279.30 280.80 283.75 285.25 288.20 289.70
CLK18 70.24 70.82 71.53 72.11 72.82 73.40 74.11
WK18 509.42 514.58 520.42 525.58 531.42 536.58 542.42
SK18 830.50 834.25 837.50 841.25 844.50 848.25 851.50
CK18 350.67 353.08 356.67 359.08 362.67 365.08 368.67

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

25 9 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

September 25, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Traders are expecting a rate hike for the third time this year as Fed meets today and tomorrow

·      The Euro rose to more than a three-month high against the dollar earlier yesterday

·      The pound gained ground as investors awaited an interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve

·      The Dollar rose against the safe-haven yen, with USD/JPY inching up 0.02% to 112.61

 

The U.S Dollar ended the day higher against some currencies and lower versus others but during the NY session investors spent most of their time buying U.S Dollars. The greenback hit low of 1.1815 versus the Euro shortly after equities opened but ended up settling the day near 1.1750. A similar reversal can be seen in sterling while USD/JPY and USD/CHF bounced off their lows to end the day at their highs. However, the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week could be helping the dollar. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates but it could be a dovish or hawkish hike. The outcome could have a lasting impact on all of the major currencies. At the same time, however, since U.S stocks hit record highs this quarter, portfolio rebalancing will be negative for the dollar. We may have already seen some of those transactions happen earlier this month but we cannot preclude the possibility of additional adjustments this week. The Reserve Bank also has a monetary policy announcement and as usual, the RBNZ’s outlook could have a significant impact on NZD. Canada-U.S trade talks will be in focus as the next major NAFTA deadline looms. The U.S wanted a deal closed by September 30th to abide by the fast track law that requires the agreement to be publicly available for 60 days before it is signed. September 30th is important because Mexico’s president steps down on December 1st and President Trump wants the deal signed with the outgoing and not incoming President. Draghi sent EUR/USD soaring above 1.18 when he said there’s a relatively vigorous pickup in underlying inflation. Although the pair receded from its highs on the back of U.S Dollar strength, the euro should outperform other major currencies on the back of the ECB’s brighter inflation outlook and stronger data. Despite ongoing trade tensions, German business confidence improved in the month of September, reinforcing the increase in investor sentiment reported earlier this month. German CPI is due for release later this week and given Draghi’s comments, the risk is to the upside for this report. Sterling, on the other hand, declined for legitimate reasons. Not only did the CBI’s industrial trends survey turn negative in September but Brexit negotiations are getting harder. There was talk that a deal could still be reached by November but there was no material progress. Instead, both UK Brexit Secretary Raab and Prime Minister May said they are going to hold their nerve today, which suggests that they are not going to bend easily to the EU’s demands.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
05:30 BOJ Kuroda speaks in Osaka High      
06:00 German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Low     3.5%
13:00 U.S House Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Medium   0.3% 0.2%
13:00 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM) SA (JUL) Medium   0.1% 0.11%
13:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL) Medium   6.2% 6.31%
13:00 S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Medium     6.2%
14:00 U.S Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (SEP) Low   21 24
14:00 U.S Consumer Confidence Index (SEP) High   132 133.4
14:00 U.S Conf. Board Present Situation (SEP) Medium     172.2

 

 

Euro

The single currency gained yesterday as Eurozone bond yields rose, with Germany’s 10-year Bund yield hitting its highest since mid-June, with analysts citing European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s comments on wage growth and vigorous inflation. Germany’s 10-year yield rose to 0.51 percent, up more than 5 basis points. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1722 and a high of 1.1813 before closing the day around 1.1746 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen weakened against all major currencies yesterday except the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. Last week, the yen continued to weaken against the US dollar. Trading volumes in Japanese yen futures decelerated week-over-week, albeit to a fairly small degree. Looking at this week’s economic calendar, there is a range of upcoming figures. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.43 and a high of 112.82 before closing the day around 112.78 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound edged higher against the U.S Dollar yesterday but remains in a precarious position following on from the beating it took at the end of last week’s session. The pound US Dollar exchange rate nosedived over two cents on Friday, suffering its largest single day losses so far this year following a breakdown in Brexit negotiations. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3061 and a high of 1.3165 before closing the day at 1.3116 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was little changed as oil prices rose and the greenback fell broadly, while domestic data showed a stronger-than-expected increase in wholesale trade. Canadian wholesale trade rose 1.5 per cent in July from June, a bigger increase than the 0.5 per cent gain expected by analysts, data from Statistics Canada showed. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2906 and a high of 1.2953 before closing the day at 1.2952 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar sold off against all major currencies. Last week, the currency moved up sharply against the US dollar. Notably, trading volumes in Australian dollar decelerated last week. This is a sign that traders did not buy last week’s rebound. There were no significant domestic developments yesterday instead the Australian dollar is tracking developments across financial markets.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7250 and a high of 0.7279 before closing the day at 0.7257 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 67 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.13%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.45%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.31%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.96%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 24, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.17459 1.18137 1.17227 1.17463 -0.0005
USD/JPY 112.517 112.82 112.413 112.786 0.2220
GBP/USD 1.30811 1.3165 1.3061 1.31164 0.0035
USD/CHF 0.95804 0.96483 0.95778 0.96463 0.0069
USD/CAD 1.29182 1.29535 1.29066 1.29526 0.0038
EUR/JPY 132.178 133.05 131.879 132.468 0.1670
GBP/JPY 147.204 148.277 146.92 147.935 0.6640
CHF/JPY 117.411 117.533 116.823 116.902 -0.6090
AUD/JPY 81.789 81.978 81.557 81.769 -0.2260
EUR/GBP 0.89771 0.89849 0.89331 0.89531 -0.0028
EUR/CHF 1.12546 1.13341 1.12536 1.13287 0.0073
GBP/CHF 1.25339 1.26558 1.25251 1.26502 0.0121

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1617 1.1670 1.1708 1.1761 1.1799 1.1852 1.1890
USD/JPY 112.12 112.27 112.53 112.67 112.93 113.08 113.34
GBP/USD 1.2959 1.3010 1.3063 1.3114 1.3167 1.3218 1.3271
USD/CHF 0.9529 0.9554 0.9600 0.9624 0.9670 0.9695 0.9741
USD/CAD 1.2875 1.2891 1.2922 1.2938 1.2969 1.2984 1.3015
EUR/JPY 130.71 131.29 131.88 132.47 133.05 133.64 134.22
GBP/JPY 145.79 146.35 147.14 147.71 148.50 149.07 149.86
CHF/JPY 115.93 116.38 116.64 117.09 117.35 117.80 118.06
AUD/JPY 81.14 81.35 81.56 81.77 81.98 82.19 82.40
EUR/GBP 0.8877 0.8905 0.8929 0.8957 0.8981 0.9009 0.9033
EUR/CHF 1.1196 1.1225 1.1277 1.1305 1.1357 1.1386 1.1438
GBP/CHF 1.2434 1.2480 1.2565 1.2610 1.2696 1.2741 1.2826

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-09-25

 

   
Market Summary
週一(9月24日)美元指數因歐洲央行行長德拉基在歐洲議會發表證詞時稱,潛在通脹出現相對有利的回升,並暗示QE計劃終止的必要,歐元聞訊急漲,美元指數則短線下跌近40點。就在這之後不久,美國方面也傳來一則重要消息,美國司法部副部長羅森斯坦據悉已向白宮幕僚長進行了口頭辭職,不過有其他媒體報導稱其並未辭職。市場預計美聯儲本週將加息,12月還會再加一次,明年將加息兩到三次,這與美聯儲政策制定者的預期大致相符。最終美元指數報收於94.27。

現貨黃金週一溫和收跌,亞市早盤開於1197.50美元/金衡盎司後金價震盪下行,錄得日內低點1194.20美元/金衡盎司後反彈,金價轉漲。歐市多頭上攻,金價走出一波上漲行情。美市多頭加大上攻力度,錄得日內高點1203.90美元/金衡盎司後回落震盪下行,逐步走低,抹平部分漲幅,終收於1198.50美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收漲1.44美元,或2.03%,報72.24美元/桶。伊朗駐石油輸出國組織(OPEC)官員日內表示,沙特和俄羅斯沒有足夠的空閒產能,他們無法像所說的那樣繼續推高產量,並且會繼續推高油價。這令原油多頭信心大受提振,同時美元承壓也為油價帶來支撐。

美國股市週一收盤標普500和道瓊工業指數下跌,因美中開始實施新一輪貿易關稅,打擊了上週對達成解決方案的希望,投資者等待美國聯邦儲備理事會(FED/美聯儲)政策會議,廣泛預期將宣布升息。道瓊工業指數收跌181.45點,或0.68%,至26,562.05點;標準普爾500指數收低10.30點,或0.35%,至2,919.37點;納斯達克指數收高6.29點,或0.08%,至7,993.25點。

個股方面,百分比漲幅最大的標普類股為能源股 .SPNY ,因油價升至四年高位,升穿每桶80美元,此前沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯排除了馬上增產的可能性。 Facebook Inc FB.O 收高1.52%,對涵蓋媒體和電信股的新指數貢獻最大。而陶氏杜邦公司 DWDP下跌2.14%,家得寶公司 HD下跌2.07%,寶潔公司 PG下挫1.81%。

日本股市週一因國定假日秋分日,休市一天。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收漲,溫和探高至112.800一線上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱溫和擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐位於112.300一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標依舊考驗113.000關口附近。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜震蕩收平,最高探至1.18137一線後全數回吐。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標走平。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.16800一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標指向1.18000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,持穩1.30000關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格關鍵支撐考驗1.30000一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標位於1.32400一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜震蕩收平,窄幅交投於1198一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標走平。後市來看,金價阻力目標指向1208一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐考驗1190一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜延續走高,最高觸及72.72一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於71.00一線。上行方面,油價阻力位指向前高74.00一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,日內下跌屬於技術性調整。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下脫離超買區。後市來看,價格阻力目標考驗26900一線。下行方面,價格支撐看向26300一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜高位震蕩收平,橫盤整理於23700一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標超買。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向前高23900一線。下行方面,價格支撐看向23500一線。