市場報告                     2018-08-27

     
Market Summary
週五(8月24日)美元指數下跌,因美聯儲主席鮑威爾週五表示,他預計利率將緩慢而穩定地繼續下去,央行希望在促進增長和控制過度行為之間找到正確的方法。鮑威爾表示沒有跡象表明通脹將加速升至2%上方,正是這句話令美元指數多頭不寒而慄。鮑威爾話音剛落,美元指數短線下跌約30點並逼近95關口,終收於95.17。

現貨黃金週五收漲,亞市早盤開於1185.10美元/金衡盎司後即下挫,金價震蕩下行,錄得日內低點1182.90美元/金衡盎司。歐市金價反彈,多頭轉上攻,金價攀升。美市盤中出現大力拉升,金價直線上揚,盤中連破兩關,錄得日內高點1208.20美元/金衡盎司後回落,金價轉跌後再轉盤整,終收於1205.20美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五收漲0.83美元,或1.22%,報68.70美元/桶。因美國石油活躍鑽井數大幅下降為油價帶來支撐,同時伊朗制裁引發的供應面憂慮也抵消了中美貿易不確定性增加的利空影響。

美國股市週五收高,其中基礎材料、科技、石油和天然氣等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高。道瓊工業股指數上漲133.37點,或0.52%,至25,790.35点;標準普爾500指數上升17.71點,或0.62%,至2,874.69點;納斯達克指數上升67.52點,或0.86%,至7,945.98點。

個股方面,陶氏杜邦公司DWDP,上漲1.61%;維薩卡公司V上漲了1.48%;英特爾公司INTC漲1.45%。歐特克公司ADSK,上漲15.33%;美國超微公司AMD收盤時漲7.58%;奈飛公司NFLX上升5.79%。

日本股市週五升至兩週高位,受日元貶值及製藥股漲勢提振。此前一篇報導稱製藥商衛材將中期獲利目標提前一年,激勵製藥股上漲。日經指數收漲0.9%,至22,601.77點。

個股方面,製造商衛材揚升2.7%,日本經濟新聞報導稱,截至2020年3月底的財年,該公司的營業利潤料將達到1,020億日元(約9.23億美元),中期業務目標提前一年實現。其他製藥類股也上漲,中外製藥跳漲2.4%;第一三共上漲2.8%。紙漿和紙品生產商類股也吸引到買盤,上漲2.7%,其中日本製紙升1.7%。但日本服裝連鎖店島村因公司8月同店銷售同比下降5.6%,及颱風來襲影響消費者購物,最終收盤大跌3.7%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜震蕩收低,持穩111關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,雙線金叉,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐目標考驗111關口。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於111.600一線,突破則進一步指向112.200一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜反彈收漲,收復 1.16一線失地。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標向上。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.14700一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力看向1.17200一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,交投于1.28400一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.28000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.29500一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至1208一線,重回1200關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標大幅向上。後市來看,金價阻力目標進一步指向1211一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐目標下看1200關口。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,最高觸及69.29一線后有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於66.70一線。上行方面,油價關鍵阻力位於69關口。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收漲,高位交投于25800一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力目標指向26000一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25600一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收漲,最高探至22630一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22360一線,上方阻力位看向22800一線。

 

 

24 8 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

FOREX Newsletter

August 24, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The main focus will be the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole today

·      There was no specific driver for the slide in the British pound

·      Economic activity in the Eurozone expanded at a faster pace in August according to the PMIs

·      Political troubles in Australia sent the Australian dollar tumbling more than 1%

The U.S Dollar is back but the Australian Dollar is in trouble. After falling in the front of the week, the greenback regained momentum yesterday to trade higher against all of the major currencies. Nothing came out of trade talks between the U.S. and China – both parties moved ahead with tariffs on $16B worth of goods so the focus shifts to the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole. It’s a 3-day meeting that begins tonight and all of the major speeches will be made today starting with Jerome Powell’s remarks. This will be his first symposium as Fed Chair. We know BoC Governor Poloz will be attending but BoJ Governor Kuroda will be skipping the event and its not clear whether BoE Governor Carney, who did not attend last year will appear at the event. Earlier this week, President Trump sent the Dollar tumbling when he lamented about Fed tightening. It is not the first time that we’ve heard the President criticize his Fed Chief and it won’t be his last. However, the best way for Powell to handle Trump’s comments is to ignore them. There’s no winning in going against his boss or agreeing with him which would suggest that the central bank has lost its independence. So the only response is no response at all. The Fed may slow down tightening, but it won’t be because of Presidential pressure. On the other hand, Powell could have a lot to say about trade and the global economic outlook which is slowing. According to the FOMC minutes, even before Jackson Hole, policymakers were worried about trade, housing, and emerging markets. If Powell suggests that this could affect the U.S’ economy outlook, the Dollar could take a hit. Investors will be looking for any indication of a possible slowing of Fed tightening. Not only could it be necessary because of slower growth but the yield curve is at risk of inverting which is troubling for many businesses and policymakers. Meanwhile, political troubles in Australia sent the Australian Dollar tumbling more than 1%. Prime Minister Turnbull faces another leadership challenge tonight or over the weekend after his own party pulled their support. Adding fuel to the fire was the Australian government’s decision to ban Chinese maker Huawei from participating in the build-out of the 5G infrastructure on security grounds. The news is sure to further aggravate the already shaky Sino-Australian relations and could be a source of constant pressure on Aussie. The pair dropped below the .7300 figure and appears poised for a test of .7200. The recovery in the U.S. dollar also sent euro and sterling lower but the euro was the day’s most resilient currency thanks to comments from BUBA President Jens Weidmann and economic data.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German Domestic Demand (2Q) Low   0.6% 0.4%
06:00 German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q) Medium   2.3% 2.3%
08:30 U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUL) Medium   40500 40541
12:30 U.S Durable Goods Orders (JUL) High   -0.5% 0.8%
12:30 U.S Durables Ex Transportation (JUL) Medium   0.5% 0.2%
14:00 U.S Fed Hosts Annual Jackson Hole Central Banking Symposium High      
14:00 U.S Powell to Discuss Economy and Monetary Policy at Jackson Hole High      
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (AUG 24) Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency turned lower against the US Dollar Thursday after ISH Markit surveys revealed a further slowdown in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector during August, suggesting the continental economy is yet to rebound from the slowdown seen at the start of the year. IHS Markit’s Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 in August. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1528 and a high of 1.1598 before closing the day around 1.1537 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair has posted broad gains in yesterday’s session. In the U.S, employment claims edged lower to 210 thousand, beating the estimate of 215 thousand. New Home Sales fell to 627 thousand, well short of the estimate of 641 thousand. This was the second housing report in as many days to miss expectations.  Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.50 and a high of 111.29 before closing the day around 111.27 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound dropped against the dollar and euro in yesterday’s trading session, after Brexit secretary Dominic Raab unveiled the first of his department’s contingency plans for a no-deal exit from the EU. As it has been stated by European officials that the Brexit talks are heading into their final chapter. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2803 and a high of 1.2917 before closing the day at 1.2811 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened, pulling back from a two-week high the day before, as the greenback rose broadly ahead of a speech today by Fed Chairman. The U.S dollar snapped a five-day losing streak, as a new round of U.S-Chinese punitive trade tariffs boosted the greenback and the annual Federal Reserve conference began in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2990 and a high of 1.3096 before closing the day at 1.3079 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell sharply as leadership jostling reached fever pitch in yesterday’s session, undermining confidence in the government and Australian assets in the eyes of global investors. Markets are used to political turmoil and dysfunction in Australia, but certain developments may have prompted a knee-jerk reaction yesterday, Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7238 and a high of 0.7354 before closing the day at 0.7247 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.13%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.16%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.18%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.27%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.51%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 23, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15955 1.15981 1.15285 1.15378 -0.0061
USD/JPY 110.556 111.298 110.5 111.27 0.7010
GBP/USD 1.29078 1.29174 1.2803 1.28111 -0.0103
USD/CHF 0.98302 0.98647 0.98202 0.98599 0.0028
USD/CAD 1.29926 1.30969 1.29905 1.30793 0.0079
EUR/JPY 128.209 128.744 127.894 128.392 0.1680
GBP/JPY 142.708 142.986 142.398 142.55 -0.2270
CHF/JPY 112.423 112.939 112.354 112.82 0.3430
AUD/JPY 81.227 81.31 80.54 80.626 -0.6470
EUR/GBP 0.8982 0.90216 0.89682 0.90059 0.0024
EUR/CHF 1.14008 1.14057 1.13626 1.13785 -0.0024
GBP/CHF 1.26896 1.26967 1.26228 1.26308 -0.0065

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1442 1.1485 1.1512 1.1555 1.1581 1.1624 1.1651
USD/JPY 109.95 110.22 110.75 111.02 111.55 111.82 112.34
GBP/USD 1.2656 1.2729 1.2770 1.2844 1.2885 1.2958 1.2999
USD/CHF 0.9787 0.9804 0.9832 0.9848 0.9876 0.9893 0.9921
USD/CAD 1.2908 1.2949 1.3014 1.3056 1.3121 1.3162 1.3227
EUR/JPY 127.09 127.49 127.94 128.34 128.79 129.19 129.64
GBP/JPY 141.72 142.06 142.30 142.64 142.89 143.23 143.48
CHF/JPY 111.88 112.12 112.47 112.70 113.05 113.29 113.64
AUD/JPY 79.57 80.06 80.34 80.83 81.11 81.60 81.88
EUR/GBP 0.8922 0.8945 0.8976 0.8999 0.9029 0.9052 0.9082
EUR/CHF 1.1316 1.1339 1.1359 1.1382 1.1402 1.1425 1.1445
GBP/CHF 1.2530 1.2576 1.2604 1.2650 1.2677 1.2724 1.2751

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-24

     
Market Summary
週四(8月23日)美元指數連續5天的下跌勢頭暫停。因政治不確定性、新一輪貿易關稅和美聯儲最新政策會議紀要共同提振了美元指數。數據方面,美國日內公佈的經濟數據表現良莠不齊,美國上週初請失業金人數為21萬人,低於前值的21.2萬人。預示著儘管貿易不確定性尚存,但勞工市場仍保持強勁。美國勞工市場的表現或是美聯儲加息背後的關鍵因素。經濟學家表示,強勁的經濟助益勞工市場承受貿易方面帶來的挑戰。而7月新屋銷售為62.7萬戶,低於前值的63.1萬戶。受建築材料成本增加,土地和勞工短缺影響,樓市數據在近幾個月均表現疲軟,新屋銷售已連續四個月減少。儘管樓市放緩是因供應端限制所致,市場擔憂這種持續性放緩將最終擴散至其他經濟領域。數據公佈後,對市場影響不明顯,最終美元指數收於95.64。

現貨黃金週四下跌,亞市早盤開於1195.30美元/金衡盎司後短線衝高,錄得日內高點1196.35美元/金衡盎司後回落,金價轉盤整後下跌。歐市金價波動加大,跌宕起伏。美市多頭在小幅上攻後失敗,金價震盪下行,錄得日內低點1183.60美元/金衡盎司後收於1185.10美元/金衡盎司的低位。

國際原油週四收跌0.24元,或0.35%,報67.87美元/桶。雖然美國原油庫存報告利好影響仍在發酵,但中美貿易緊張局勢再度升溫令投資者擔憂加重,同時美元強勢反彈也令油價承壓。

美國股市在週四下跌,因美國和中國的貿易爭端升級,兩國對新一輪商品徵收關稅,打壓對貿易敏感的類股。道瓊工業指數下跌76.62點,或0.3%,至25,656.98點;標準普爾500指數挫4.84點,或0.17%,至2,856.98點;納斯達克指數下跌10.64點,或0.13%,至7,878.46點。

個股方面,能源股指數 .SPNY 下跌0.5%,材料股指數 .SPLRCM 下跌0.7%,為標普主要類股中百分比跌幅最大的板塊,因對貿易戰的擔憂拖累原油和金屬價格下跌。美國肉類生產商荷美爾食品公司 HRL.N 下跌,此前該公司將季度業績不佳歸咎於中國的關稅。荷美爾表示,中國的關稅導致了國內供應過剩和價格下跌。該股收盤下跌3.1%。維多利亞的秘密的母公司有限品牌公司 LB.N 重挫11.4%,觸及2011年3月以來最低,之前該公司下調全年財測。

日本股市週四收盤小升,日元走弱支撐大盤信心,但德國大陸集團(Continental)發布獲利預警,拖累汽車及輪胎股。日經指數終場上漲0.22%或48.27點,收22,410.82點。

個股方面,汽車股、輪胎生產商和汽車配件生產商股票都下跌,因德國汽車零部件供應商大陸集團發布獲利預警,導致股價大跌13%。豐田汽車和日產汽車分別跌1.1%和2.0%,普利司通下滑2.0%。而折扣家具店運營商Nitori Holdings 跳漲3.9%,因8月同店銷售增長0.7%,超過預期。其它零售類股也上漲,日本永旺漲1.6%,迅銷升2.8%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收漲,重回111關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐目標考驗111關口。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於111.600一線,突破則進一步指向112.200一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅回落,承壓於1.16一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.14500一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力看向1.16100一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜回落收跌,回撤至1.28一線附近尋求支撐。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱溫和,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.27800一線,跌破則進一步看向1.27一線。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力位於1.29000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,交投於1190一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價初步阻力依舊考驗1200心理關口。下行方面,金價支撐目標下看1170一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收跌,一度觸及日低至67.31一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於66.50一線。上行方面,油價阻力位於68.90一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收低,窄幅交投與25700一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下延伸。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25900一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25500一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收漲,最高探至22515一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22360一線,上方阻力位看向22680一線。

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-23

   

 

 
Market Summary
週三(8月22日)美元指數持續下跌。備受關注的美聯儲會議紀要如期揭開面紗,紀要顯示,儘管美聯儲官員們對貿易戰感到擔憂,稱持續的全球貿易緊張是美國經濟增長強勁的最大威脅,但與此同時,暗示再一次加息將很快到來。此外,許多委員認為,在不遠的將來將不再用“寬鬆”形容立場,鮑威爾暗示秋季重新討論政策操作框架。紀要出爐之後,雖然美聯儲9月和12月加息預期小幅升溫,但美元指數短線一度跌破95.00關口,隨後觸底反彈,最終美元指數收於95.10。數據方面,美國公佈的7月成屋銷售總數年化為534萬戶,低於前值和預期,年化戶數環比連降四個月,創近兩年半新低,錄得五年來最長連跌,因供應短缺推升了房價,讓一些潛在買家望而卻步。

現貨黃金週三亞市早盤開於1196.00美元/金衡盎司後小幅下跌,錄得日內低點1192.30美元/金衡盎司後轉漲,金價震盪上行。歐市金價轉盤整,多空激戰後多頭獲勝,金價重拾升勢。美市多頭加大攻勢,金價錄得日內高點1201.25美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行,之後再轉盤整,終收於1195.30美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收漲2.06美元,或3.12%,報68.11美元/桶。美國原油庫存報告整體利多,雖然美國原油產量仍在攀升,但美元回落則為油價反彈提供了助力。

美國股市在週三收盤漲跌不一,其中石油和天然氣、科技和衛生保健等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高;與此同時,電信、生活消費品和公用事業板塊等下跌的使股指走低。截至收盤,瓊工業指數下跌88.69點,或0.34%,至25,733.60點;標準普爾500指數挫1.14點,或0.04%,至2,861.82點;納斯達克指數漲29.92點,或0.38%,至7,889.10點。

個股方面,能源股 .SPNY 上漲1.2%,因油價跳升。零售商塔吉特(Target)觸及紀錄新高,收盤上漲3.2%,此前發布的季度業績好於預期,且上調了其全年盈利預估。家居修繕用品零售商家勞氏(Lowe’s)也觸及紀錄新高,收盤勁升5.8%,此前該公司承諾削減銷售緩慢的產品和不成功的商業項目。科技股 .SPLRCT 升0.5%,給標普500指數帶來的提振最大。

日本股市週三收高,得益於科技股追隨美國同業上漲。不過電信類股走勢震盪,因有消息稱政府希望調降移動電話費率並停止手機捆綁服務。日經指數終場上漲0.58%或127.77點,收22,347.50點。

個股方面,科技股表現超群,Advantest大漲1.6%,東京電子勁升2.4%。出口股上揚,本田汽車揚升1.9%,小松製作所大漲2.4%。而KDDI電信收盤下滑1.9%。 NTT Docomo一度大跌3.3%,之後扳回跌幅收低0.6%。軟銀集團最多下挫3.1%,但收高1.3%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收漲,持穩110關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐目標考驗110關口。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於111關口,突破則進一步指向111.400一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜震蕩收漲,窄幅交投於1.16一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐依舊考驗1.15000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力看向1.16400一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜窄幅震蕩,交投於1.29000一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.27800一線。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力位於1.30關口。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜震蕩收平,一度探高至1200關口上方後回落。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價初步阻力依舊考驗1200心理關口。下行方面,金價支撐目標下看1180一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜大幅飆升,最高探至68.12一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於66.40一線。上行方面,油價阻力位於68.90一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜低開收平,一度探高至25833一線後回吐升幅。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25900一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25500一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜低開高走,最高觸及22445一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22200一線,上方阻力位看向22500一線。

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-22

     
Market Summary
週二(8月21日)美元指數持續下挫,美市擴大跌幅,因仍受到美國總統特朗普對美聯儲的批評的不利影響,加上投資者在中美兩國本週舉行的談判開始前,紛紛撤出美元,日內無重大數據公佈,最終美元指數收於95.26。

現貨黃金週二亞市早盤開於1190.20美元/金衡盎司後小幅攀升,不斷上漲。歐市金價延續漲勢,但在觸及高位後回落,金價震盪下行,盤中出現跳水。美市金價進一步下挫,但在錄得日內低點1187.40美元/金衡盎司後呈V型反彈,金價重拾升勢,不斷走高,錄得日內高點1196.75美元/金衡盎司後小幅回落,終收於1196.00美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收漲0.60美元,或0.92%,報66.05美元/桶。伊朗原油供應恐受到進一步打壓為油價提供有效支撐,即使美國計劃出售戰略儲備原油來穩定油市,同時美元的走弱也提振原油多頭信心。

美國股市在週二收高,因消費類板塊的季報令人鼓舞,美國和中國之間持續的貿易戰相對平靜。道瓊工業指數上漲63.60點,或0.25%,至25,822.29點;標準普爾500指數漲5.91點,或0.21%,至2,862.96點;納斯達克指數漲38.17點,或0.49%,至7,859.17點。

個股方面,標普非必需消費品類股.SPLRCD 攀升0.9%,因折扣零售商TJX Companies TJX.N 發布強勁業績後上漲,Toll Brothers TOL.N 發布令人鼓舞的季度業績,提振房屋建築商類股股價走高。但美容產品製造商Coty Inc COTY.N 季度營收不及預期,這是六個季度以來首次,拖累股價急跌7.1%。

日本股市週二扳回跌幅收高,因此前日元走低引發期貨買盤,但移動運營商板塊下挫,因有媒體援引一名日本官員的話報導稱該行業亟待改革。日經指數終場小漲0.09%或20.73點,收22,219.73點。

個股方面,KDDI電信大跌5.2%,NTT Docomo重挫4.0%,軟銀集團股份有限公司 下跌1.6%,計劃推出移動通訊業務的電子商務業者樂天大跌3.6%。電子類股也下跌,其中Panasonic下跌2.1%,阿爾卑斯電氣下跌1.4%。東京製鐵大跌2.86%。東京製鐵連7個月維持鋼價不變。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜震蕩收漲,一度下破110關口後反彈走高。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐目標考驗110關口,跌破則進一步指向108.700一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於111關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續收漲,逼近1.16一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,雙線金叉,RSI指標大幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.15000一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力看向1.16400一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜大幅飆升,最高探至1.29233一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,雙線金叉,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗1.27800一線。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力位於1.30關口。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜延續反彈,小幅探高至1196一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減殆盡,雙線金叉,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,金價初步阻力考驗1200心理關口。下行方面,金價支撐目標下看1180一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,最高觸及66.47一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於64.60一線。上行方面,油價阻力位於67.90一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收漲,一度觸及新高至25883一線後收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25900一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25490一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收漲,一度觸及日低至22030一線後反彈走高。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22000關口,上方阻力位看向22400一線。

 

 

21 8 月 2018

Daily  Market View

    

Daily  Market View

Tuesday, August 21, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25761 2859.00 7388.00
+0.13% +0.08% +0.13%

U.S stocks closed higher for a third session yesterday as a pair of billion-dollar deals reaffirmed confidence that the U.S economy continues its steady expansion. Optimism that progress would be made toward resolving contentious trade disputes between the U.S and China also bolstered sentiment.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 89.37 points, or 0.4%, with Nike Inc. rising 3.1% to hit a 52-week high. The S&P 500 index climbed 6.92 points, or 0.2%, led by materials and energy sectors. The NASDAQ Index reversed earlier losses to advance 4.68 points. U.S. equities rose sharply last week, on hopes for improving trade relations, as well as signs of stabilization in Turkey’s currency market. The Dow jumped 1.4%, a move that took it to its highest close since February. The S&P 500 added 0.6% and is within 1% of its record. The NASDAQ dipped 0.3% over the course of last week, but it is also within striking distance of its record. However, this week will also see the imposition of 25% tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese imports.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

RBA Meeting Minutes 01:30    

jul

New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) 03:00   5.7%

jul

Japan Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) 05:30   3.1%

jul

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 06:00   13.0%

jul

U.K Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) 08:30   13.3b

jul

U.K Central Government NCR 08:30   13.6b

jul

U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing 08:30 -2.2b 4.5b

jun

Canada Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 12:30 0.7% 1.2%

2Q

New Zealand Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) 22:45 0.3% 0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.35% to hit new 6-months high yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Nike Inc., which rose 3.05% or 2.43 points to trade at 82.18 at the close. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson added 1.79% or 2.41 points to end at 136.88 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 1.61% or 1.11 points to 70.17 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 1.89% or 1.85 points to trade at 96.00 at the close. Intel Corporation declined 1.27% or 0.60 points to end at 46.50 and Apple Inc. was down 0.97% or 2.12 points to 215.46.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.06% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc. which rose 52.53% to 3.020, China Commercial Credit Inc. which was up 30.53% to settle at 0.7700 and Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd which gained 30.34% to close at 11.60. The worst performers were NF Energy Saving Corporation which was down 21.26% to 4.3700 in late trade, Aralez Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 19.58% to settle at 0.03 and Zion Oil & Gas Inc. which was down 16.85% to 1.530 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices edged higher today as U.S fuel markets were seen to be tightening while looming American sanctions against Iran were expected to cut supply out of global markets. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery were up 27 cents, or 0.4 percent. Traders said U.S. markets were lifted by a tightening outlook for fuel markets in the coming months. Inventories in the United States for refined products such as diesel and heating oil for this time of year are at their lowest in four years. This is occurring just ahead of the peak demand period for these fuels, with diesel needed for tractors to harvest crops and the arrival of colder weather during the Northern Hemisphere autumn raising consumption of heating oil. Outside the United States, markets focused on U.S. sanctions against Iran, which from November will target its oil sector. The impact of the Iran sanctions is not yet clear.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices climbed on the back of a weaker dollar today, extending gains into a third session, after U.S President Donald Trump said he was “not thrilled” with the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,193.92 an ounce after gaining 0.5 percent in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were up 0.5 percent at $1,200.6 an ounce. Trump’s remarks are having a negative effect on the U.S. dollar, and in turn, lending support to gold prices. The dollar sagged against major peers and the yen today after Trump criticized his own appointee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for raising interest rates. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. rates, as these increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. The U.S central bank has raised rates twice this year and targets two more hikes, with the next one slated in September. However, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said he was maintaining his expectation for one more interest rate hike this year. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to the release of Fed’s August meeting minutes on Wednesday and the bank’s annual policy symposium at Jackson Hole later this week. Until there is a sustained sell-off in the dollar, speculators will be more prone to sell upticks in gold. In equity markets, Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, supported by hopes that Beijing and Washington would dial back trade hostilities ahead of a U.S.-China meeting this week, but comments from Trump about manipulation of the yuan and the Federal Reserve policy capped gains. Among other precious metals, spot silver climbed 0.3 percent to $14.75 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.6 percent to $798.50, while palladium remained steady at $910.50. Copper rebounded from three straight weekly declines as U.S-China trade tensions eased and a jump in orders for the metal pointed to stronger demand.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures fell three per cent yesterday on expectations of a pickup in Russian wheat exports in the next few months as shippers try to get ahead of potential export curbs, traders said, while soybeans clung to modest advances. Corn followed wheat lower yesterday.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, August 20, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25699 25788 25660 25761 83
S & P 500 SPM18 2851.5 2860.5 2850 2859 6.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7390.25 7420.5 7351.25 7388 -0.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27194 27549 27135 27520 379
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22240 22265 22125 22180 -90
FTSE 100 FTH18 7548.5 7608 7547 7583 28
Gold GCJ18 1190.8 1197.5 1189.6 1197.5 13.1
Silver SIK18 1475 1482 1461.5 1475.5 11
Copper HGK18 265.3 268.2 264.15 267.05 3.7
Crude Oil CLK18 65.12 65.59 64.81 65.51 0.21
Wheat WK18 558.25 559 540.25 543.25 -16.5
Soybeans SK18 886.5 894.25 880.25 883.5 0.25
Corn CK18 363.75 365.25 359.25 363 -2

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25557 25608 25685 25736 25813 25864 25941
SPM18 2842.00 2846.00 2852.50 2856.50 2863.00 2867.00 2873.50
NDM18 7283.42 7317.33 7352.67 7386.58 7421.92 7455.83 7491.17
HSH18 26840 26987 27254 27401 27668 27815 28082
NKH18 21975 22050 22115 22190 22255 22330 22395
FTH18 7489.67 7518.33 7550.67 7579.33 7611.67 7640.33 7672.67
GCJ18 1184.33 1186.97 1192.23 1194.87 1200.13 1202.77 1208.03
SIK18 1443.50 1452.50 1464.00 1473.00 1484.50 1493.50 1505.00
HGK18 260.68 262.42 264.73 266.47 268.78 270.52 272.83
CLK18 64.24 64.52 65.02 65.30 65.80 66.08 66.58
WK18 517.25 528.75 536.00 547.50 554.75 566.25 573.50
SK18 863.75 872.00 877.75 886.00 891.75 900.00 905.75
CK18 353.75 356.50 359.75 362.50 365.75 368.50 371.75

 

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

21 8 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

   

FOREX Newsletter

August 21, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      President Trump complained about the Fed’s rate hikes at a Hamptons fundraiser this weekend

·      China – U.S trade talks and the Jackson Hole summit could affect all of the major currencies

·      As for Brexit, investors don’t expect any significant progress with the deadline quickly approaching

·      The rally in the Euro was driven by the combination of U.S Dollar selling and short covering

The U.S Dollar started this new trading week with another day of losses. The greenback either held steady or extended its slide against all of the major currencies. While there were no buyers at the start of the NY session, the selling only gained momentum on reports that President Trump complained about the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes at a Hamptons fundraiser this weekend. This is the second time that we’ve heard the President lament about Fed tightening and theoretically, his views are not supposed to affect monetary policy. However, if the central bank raises interest rates next month but fails to commit to a fourth hike, there’s no doubt that some market participants will attribute that to pressure from the President regardless of whether its true. Yet, the real reason why the dollar was down yesterday is because Treasury yields continued to fall and Fed President Bostic said he favors only 3 rate hikes this year, encouraging traders to cover their short positions in euro, sterling and other beta currencies.  The market’s reaction to President Trump’s comments gave investors a taste of what could drive FX flows this week. There are no major U.S economic reports on the calendar and the only pieces of potentially market moving data from other parts of the world are Eurozone PMIs along with Canada and New Zealand’s retail sales reports. As for Brexit, we don’t expect any significant progress but with the October deadline quickly approaching, a lack of positive developments could be perceived as negative for the currency. About 2 years ago, the European Commission’s Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier gave the UK 18 months to negotiate the terms of exit. The European Union, on the other hand, see the deadline as a way to get the UK to bend so as the clock ticks, not only could the deadline get pushed to November but the chance of no deal increases exponentially. None of this is good for sterling and this explains the restrained rally in GBP/USD despite hefty short positions and decent data. Euro, on the other hand, closed at 1.15. The rally was driven by the combination of U.S. Dollar selling, short covering and the relief that Italian bond yields fell sharply after rising steadily for the past 2 months. According to last week’s CFTC data, speculators are short euros for the first time in over a year. While this may not be surprising or seem significant, it is a big change from April, when euro positions were net long and at their highest level in 2 decades.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 RBA Meeting Minutes (AUG 7) Medium      
03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUL) Medium 3.2%   5.7%
05:30 Japan Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium -6.1%   3.1%
05:30 Japan Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium -4.5%   6.9%
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUL) Low 13.1%   13.0%
08:30 U.K Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUL) Medium     13.3b
08:30 U.K Central Government NCR (JUL) Medium     13.6b
08:30 U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUL) Medium   -2.2b 4.5b
12:30 Canada Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low   0.7% 1.2%
22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (2Q) Medium   0.3% 0.1%

 

Euro

The single currency has been somewhat noisy during the session but in a good way. The market had beaten this currency down but it seems like fears about the Turkish lira and contagion are starting to drop off a bit. That’s a good sign, and it seems as if the attitudes of traders around the world is the step back a bit. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1393 and a high of 1.1483 before closing the day around 1.1483 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair finished lower last week for the fourth week out of five as investors pumped money in the Japanese Yen due to safe-haven buying related to the financial crisis in Turkey and its impact on emerging markets. Falling U.S Treasury yields helped tighten the spread between U.S. Government bond yields and Japanese Government bond yields. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.00 and a high of 110.66 before closing the day around 110.08 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

 

The British Pound continues to get punished for all things Brexit and of course an inability of Conservative Party members in the U.K to get it together and present a united front. People are starting to price in the idea of a “no deal Brexit”, so things are becoming much more negative. At this point, the trade of the century might be buying the Pound at low levels. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2727 and a high of 1.2797 before closing the day at 1.2797 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar rose to a 10-day high against its U.S counterpart yesterday, as oil prices climbed and U.S President Donald Trump said he disagreed with the U.S Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The U.S Dollar fell against a basket of major currencies as Trump showed his displeasure with Fed tightening. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3037 and a high of 1.3090 before closing the day at 1.3046 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar finished higher last week. Aussie was driven sharply lower early in the last week by a stronger U.S Dollar before reversing to the upside. Some of the pressure came from spillover selling related to the previous week’s dovish monetary policy statements. There were also concerns raised over a weakening China economy. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7293 and a high of 0.7342 before closing the day at 0.7340 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.05%.

 

  

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 29 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.08%.

 

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.02%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 29 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.03%.

 

 

Appendix

 

 

FOREX Closing Prices for August 20, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14352 1.14836 1.1393 1.14836 0.0042
USD/JPY 110.499 110.665 110.002 110.084 -0.4560
GBP/USD 1.27432 1.27978 1.27276 1.27971 0.0045
USD/CHF 0.99507 0.99667 0.99089 0.99166 -0.0039
USD/CAD 1.30551 1.30904 1.30374 1.30463 -0.0016
EUR/JPY 126.374 126.441 126.052 126.4 -0.0610
GBP/JPY 140.828 141.195 140.694 140.865 -0.0920
CHF/JPY 111.016 111.21 110.915 111.03 -0.0240
AUD/JPY 80.788 80.921 80.559 80.79 -0.0660
EUR/GBP 0.89716 0.89743 0.89377 0.89743 0.0002
EUR/CHF 1.138 1.1386 1.13516 1.1386 -0.0004
GBP/CHF 1.26819 1.27094 1.26637 1.26918 -0.0004

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1333 1.1363 1.1423 1.1453 1.1514 1.1544 1.1604
USD/JPY 109.17 109.59 109.84 110.25 110.50 110.91 111.16
GBP/USD 1.2680 1.2704 1.2751 1.2774 1.2821 1.2844 1.2891
USD/CHF 0.9837 0.9873 0.9895 0.9931 0.9953 0.9989 1.0010
USD/CAD 1.2973 1.3005 1.3026 1.3058 1.3079 1.3111 1.3132
EUR/JPY 125.77 125.91 126.15 126.30 126.54 126.69 126.93
GBP/JPY 140.14 140.42 140.64 140.92 141.14 141.42 141.64
CHF/JPY 110.60 110.76 110.89 111.05 111.19 111.35 111.48
AUD/JPY 80.23 80.39 80.59 80.76 80.95 81.12 81.32
EUR/GBP 0.8913 0.8926 0.8950 0.8962 0.8987 0.8999 0.9023
EUR/CHF 1.1329 1.1340 1.1363 1.1375 1.1397 1.1409 1.1432
GBP/CHF 1.2622 1.2643 1.2667 1.2688 1.2713 1.2734 1.2759

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-21

     
Market Summary
週一(8月20日)美元指數於美市盤中短線下滑。因對即將舉行的美中貿易磋商的樂觀情緒與日俱增,加上美國總統特朗普表示反對美聯儲進一步加息的言論打壓下,美元指數擴大跌幅,跌破96.00關口。日內無重大數據公佈,市場較為平靜,最終美元指數收於95.79。

現貨黃金週一小幅上漲,亞市早盤開於1182.90美元/金衡盎司後持穩,歐市金價漲跌不定,窄幅波動。而美市金價加大波動,多空博弈加劇,多頭上攻錄得日內高點1190.55美元/金衡盎司後轉盤整,終收於1190.20美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一小幅收跌0.48美元,或0.73%,報65.45美元/桶。貿易緊張情緒有所緩解提振原油多頭信心,同時伊朗制裁影響發酵令原油供應蒙上陰影,加上美元回落也為油價帶來了支撐。

美國股市在週一收高,因美中磋商的樂觀情緒提振工業、能源和材料等對貿易敏感類股上漲。道瓊工業指數上漲89.37點,或0.35%,至25,758.69點;標準普爾500指數上漲6.92點,或0.24%,至2,857.05點;納斯達克指數漲4.68點,或0.06%,至7,821.01點。

個股方面,百事公司同意以32億美元的價格收購SodaStream,即每股144美元。該交易預計將在明年1月前完成。 SodaStream股價上漲約9.4%。而Facebook股價下跌0.8%,此前有報導稱,美國政府正試圖迫使該公司破解其在Messages應用上的加密功能。

日本股市週一收低,因芯片相關類股走弱,追隨美國同業週五的跌勢。目前市場交投淡靜,投資人靜待本週中美貿易談判的進展。日經指數終場收低0.32%或71.38點,收22,199.00點。

個股方面,SUMCO大跌3.0%、設備商東京威力科創跌1.0%、Advantest跌1.1%。 FamilyMart UNY Holdings狂瀉11.27%。伊藤忠商事宣布已完成對FamilyMart的TOB,持股比重提高至50.1%、將FamilyMart收編為旗下子公司。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜延續收跌,最低探至110關口附近,刷新近兩個月低位。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市看來,價格支撐目標考驗110關口,跌破則進一步指向108.700一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於110.800一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜進一步反彈,最高探至1.14836一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.14500一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力看向1.16400一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜溫和收漲,小幅探高至1.27983一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標離開超賣區。後市看來,價格依舊考驗1.27000一線支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.29300一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜延續反彈,小幅探高至1190一線上方。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,金價初步阻力考驗1200心理關口。下行方面,金價支撐目標下看1170一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜低開收漲,窄幅交投于65.10一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於64.20一線。上行方面,油價阻力位於66.60一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震蕩收漲,高位交投于25700一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向25840一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25470一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收跌,最低探至22125一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22000關口,上方阻力位看向22300一線。

 

 

20 8 月 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Monday, August 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25678 2852.75 7388.25
+0.43% +0.33% +0.13%

The U.S stock market is well on its way to better-than-average gains this year, but a quick glance at overseas markets reveals a more sobering story. Global stock markets are having a tough 2018. While the S&P 500 is up more than 6 percent and less than 1 percent away from new highs. Although some have speculated that fears of slower economic growth in China may be partly responsible for feeble stock performance there, Hong Kong and Shanghai are by no means alone. Ever since the Federal Reserve began unwinding its massive balance sheet and hiking interest rates, the U.S. dollar has gradually climbed against a basket of other currencies. All else equal, higher interest rates in a country increase the value of that country’s currency as foreigners flock to take advantage of better yields. A weak dollar tends to juice emerging markets as debt denominated in U.S. dollars becomes easier to repay with local-currency revenue. A stronger greenback, on the other hand, can drive investors back to the dollar.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

New Zealand Dairy Auction Whole Milk Powder MT     $2958

jul

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 06:00   3.0%

jul

Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) 07:00   1.1%

aug

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits CHF 08:00    

jun

Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) 09:00   1.8%

 

Fed’s Bostic Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Tennessee 15:00    

 

U.S. to Sell 3-Month Bills 15:30    

jul

New Zealand Net Migration s.a. (JUL) 22:45   4840

aug

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 23:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.43% to hit a new 3-month high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Caterpillar Inc., which rose 2.25% or 3.06 points to trade at 139.32 at the close. Meanwhile, Apple Inc. added 2.00% or 4.26 points to end at 217.58 and Pfizer Inc. was up 1.59% or 0.66 points to 42.08 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 0.80% or 0.79 points to trade at 97.85 at the close. Nike Inc. declined 0.39% or 0.31 points to end at 79.74 and McDonald’s Corporation was down 0.35% or 0.57 points to 161.16.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index gained 0.13% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Izea Inc. which rose 33.33% to 1.4600, Sigma Designs Inc. which was up 24.24% to settle at 0.25 and Bellerophon Therapeutics Inc. which gained 22.81% to close at 0.798. The worst performers were Zion Oil & Gas Inc. which was down 27.13% to 1.840 in late trade, Boxlight Corp Class A which lost 18.78% to settle at 3.98 and US Energy Corp which was down 15.69% to 0.8600 at the close.

Oil

Crude prices rose on Friday, but declined on the week on worries that oversupply would weigh on the U.S market while trade disputes and slowing global economic growth would dampen demand for oil. U.S crude declined for the seventh consecutive week, and global benchmark Brent was dropped for a third week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 45 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $65.91, after touching a session high of $66.39. For the week, Brent was down 1.4 percent, and U.S crude fell 2.6 percent. Falling prices have weighed on funds with oil exposure. Money managers cut their net long U.S crude futures and options positions to the lowest in nearly two months in the week to Aug. 14, the U.S Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. U.S government data this week showed a large buildup in crude inventories, with production also increased. Investors remain cautious as Wednesday’s surprise gain in U.S. stockpiles remained fresh in their minds.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold recovered some ground on Friday as a weakening U.S Dollar relieved pressure on prices, but the precious metal remained near 19-month lows and looked poised for its biggest weekly drop since May 2017. Spot gold added 0.31 percent to $1,177.21 ounce but was down 2.7 percent this week in its sixth consecutive weekly loss. On Thursday, it touched $1,159.96, the lowest since January 2017. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up 20 cents, or 0.02 percent, at $1,184.20 per ounce. The markets are much oversold and the dollar is overbought. From a 13-month high on Wednesday against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar has weakened against the currencies of key gold markets, the eurozone and China, helping gold regain its footing.  I expect the dollar to peak in the coming weeks … Gold should bottom out here. Gold has tumbled 14 percent from its April high as a rally in the greenback made dollar-priced bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Investors seeking a safe place to store assets amid trade disputes and a Turkish currency crisis have preferred the dollar to gold, undermining the reputation of bullion as a safe haven. But news of planned U.S.-China trade talks and a partial recovery of Turkey’s lira have steadied investors’ nerves slightly. Bets on lower prices on the Comex exchange continue to build and now outweigh bets on higher prices by the largest quantity ever recorded. Meanwhile, silver gained 0.3 percent to $14.66 an ounce, but was down more than 4 percent on the week, the biggest weekly loss since February. On Thursday it touched its lowest since February 2016. Platinum increased 0.2 percent to $778.40 an ounce and was set for its biggest weekly drop since November 2015 of about 6 percent. It hit a 10-year low on Thursday. Palladium gained 1.1 percent to $898.90 per ounce but was down 1.4 percent this week having struck a one-year low.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures jumped to their highest prices in more than a week on Friday on concerns that top-exporter Russia may curb grain exports. Russia will consider restricting 2018-19 shipments once they reach 30 million tonnes, following a request from the meat-producing region.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, August 17, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25575 25729 25504 25678 86
S & P 500 SPM18 2843.25 2857 2835 2852.75 7.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7382 7406.5 7321.5 7388.25 -2
Hang Seng HSH18 27210 27328 27001 27141 103
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22250 22325 22220 22270 120
FTSE 100 FTH18 7550 7572.5 7504 7555 17.5
Gold GCJ18 1180.4 1187.1 1178.5 1184.4 3.7
Silver SIK18 1462.5 1474 1456.5 1464.5 2
Copper HGK18 260.55 263.85 259.85 263.35 2.6
Crude Oil CLK18 65.43 66.35 65.27 66.01 0.58
Wheat WK18 541.75 562.5 534.75 559.75 18.5
Soybeans SK18 885.75 886.25 870.5 883.25 -2
Corn CK18 364.5 367.5 361.5 365 0

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25320 25412 25545 25637 25770 25862 25995
SPM18 2817.50 2826.25 2839.50 2848.25 2861.50 2870.25 2883.50
NDM18 7252.67 7287.08 7337.67 7372.08 7422.67 7457.08 7507.67
HSH18 26658 26830 26985 27157 27312 27484 27639
NKH18 22113 22167 22218 22272 22323 22377 22428
FTH18 7446.67 7475.33 7515.17 7543.83 7583.67 7612.33 7652.17
GCJ18 1170.97 1174.73 1179.57 1183.33 1188.17 1191.93 1196.77
SIK18 1438.50 1447.50 1456.00 1465.00 1473.50 1482.50 1491.00
HGK18 256.85 258.35 260.85 262.35 264.85 266.35 268.85
CLK18 64.32 64.80 65.40 65.88 66.48 66.96 67.56
WK18 514.42 524.58 542.17 552.33 569.92 580.08 597.67
SK18 858.00 864.25 873.75 880.00 889.50 895.75 905.25
CK18 355.83 358.67 361.83 364.67 367.83 370.67 373.83

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 8 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

August 20, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      Dollar fell against the major currencies following softer than expected U.S consumer confidence

·      Slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the Euro

·      Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery

·      Canadian Dollar benefitted from stronger than expected consumer price growth

  

The second full week in August was a good one for the U.S Dollar. The greenback extended its gains against most of the major currencies but the rally is slowing as investors cover their shorts in EUR/USD, AUD/USD and other major currencies. Softer than expected U.S consumer confidence helped to fuel their recoveries but the prospect of 2 relatively quiet data weeks and the potential for a disruptive trade meeting between the U.S. and China also encouraged investors to reduce their short positions. The most important event risk next week will be the U.S. and China’s trade talks on August 21 and 22. If the talks go well, risk appetite will improve allowing deeply oversold currencies like the Australian dollar to recover. However if the U.S. and China continue to bump heads, we could see renewed losses for euro, sterling and Aussie along with gains for the U.S Dollar. U.S fundamentals are still sound and next week’s FOMC minutes will remind us that the Fed is on course to raise rates in September. So at most we expect the pullback in USD/JPY to take the pair to 109.90 or 110. After hitting a low of 1.13 on Wednesday, EUR/USD ended the week near 1.14. Like the U.S., slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the currency. Eurozone PMIs are due for release in the week ahead and of all the economic reports on the calendar, these are the most important because previously, we’ve seen very little sign of trade tensions impacting the Eurozone economy but if the August numbers show a slowdown, euro will resume its slide. If the data shows that manufacturing and service sector activity continued to expand at a faster pace, EUR/USD could extend its gains to 1.15. Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery. With short positions at their highest level since May 2017, GBP/USD was at the greatest risk of a short covering rally. Consumer spending rose 3 times more than expected in July, year over year CPI growth accelerated to 2.5%, well above the central bank’s 2% target and the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 43 years. There was a slowdown in wage growth and zero price growth on a month to month basis, but the improvements should have overshadowed the deterioration. Yet it did not, which shows how strong the selling pressure really is. The problem is that the risk of a no-deal Brexit is growing but taking a look at the GBP/USD daily chart – higher highs and higher lows suggest that a stronger recovery is brewing. If it happens, it would be driven by Brexit headlines or a deeper pullback in the U.S Dollar because there are no major UK economic reports for the rest of the month. All three of the commodity currencies traded higher today with the Canadian leading the gains.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low     3.0%
07:00 Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) Low     1.1%
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (AUG 17) Low      
09:00 Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN) Low     1.8%
15:00 U.S Fed’s Bostic Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Tennessee Low      
22:45 New Zealand Net Migration s.a. (JUL) Low     4840
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 19) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency traded better against the U.S. Dollar on Friday. The single currency continues to be supported by the announcement of renewed trade talks between the United States and China later this month. Considering the limited impact on European banks, the recent sell-off in the Euro appears to have been overdone. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1365 and a high of 1.1443 before closing the day around 1.1441 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair was under pressure last week on trade tensions and on revelations the Bank of Japan is under pressure to move away from its accommodative policy. Early in the week, the Yen was supported by solid domestic data. Late in the week, geopolitical tensions sparked a flight-to-safety rally into the Japanese Yen. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.29 and a high of 111.03 before closing the day around 110.54 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound struggled during the last week, as we reached down to the next support level. People are starting to price in the idea of a “no deal Brexit”, so things are becoming much more negative. At this point, the trade of the century might be buying the British pound at low levels, but clearly you need a longer-term signal to start doing that. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2695 and a high of 1.2752 before closing the day at 1.2752 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart on Friday after data showed a surge in domestic inflation triggered increased bets on another Bank of Canada interest rate hike as soon as September. Canada’s annual inflation rate surged to 3.0 per cent in July, its highest in nearly seven years, versus 2.5 per cent the previous month. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3049 and a high of 1.3167 before closing the day at 1.3062 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar broke sharply last week amid expectations that domestic interest rates would remain at historical lows longer than expected and rising geopolitical turmoil that dampened demand for higher-yielding currencies. The Australian Dollar weakened as the central bank showed no intention of raising rates over the near future. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7250 and a high of 0.7317 before closing the day at 0.7315 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.26%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.46%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.19%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 17, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1375 1.14435 1.1365 1.14414 0.0066
USD/JPY 110.867 111.033 110.296 110.54 -0.3420
GBP/USD 1.27109 1.2752 1.26959 1.2752 0.0039
USD/CHF 0.99665 0.9976 0.9931 0.99558 -0.0010
USD/CAD 1.31553 1.31672 1.30497 1.30621 -0.0092
EUR/JPY 126.127 126.584 125.555 126.461 0.3220
GBP/JPY 140.985 141.143 140.202 140.957 -0.0160
CHF/JPY 111.206 111.29 110.787 111.054 -0.1620
AUD/JPY 80.468 80.938 80.071 80.856 0.3710
EUR/GBP 0.89465 0.89759 0.8934 0.89726 0.0026
EUR/CHF 1.13385 1.13921 1.13277 1.13899 0.0051
GBP/CHF 1.26656 1.26992 1.26485 1.26954 0.0023

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1311 1.1338 1.1390 1.1417 1.1468 1.1495 1.1547
USD/JPY 109.48 109.89 110.21 110.62 110.95 111.36 111.69
GBP/USD 1.2659 1.2677 1.2715 1.2733 1.2771 1.2789 1.2827
USD/CHF 0.9888 0.9909 0.9933 0.9954 0.9978 0.9999 1.0023
USD/CAD 1.2901 1.2976 1.3019 1.3093 1.3136 1.3211 1.3254
EUR/JPY 124.79 125.17 125.82 126.20 126.85 127.23 127.87
GBP/JPY 139.45 139.83 140.39 140.77 141.33 141.71 142.27
CHF/JPY 110.29 110.54 110.80 111.04 111.30 111.55 111.80
AUD/JPY 79.44 79.75 80.31 80.62 81.17 81.49 82.04
EUR/GBP 0.8904 0.8919 0.8946 0.8961 0.8988 0.9003 0.9030
EUR/CHF 1.1283 1.1306 1.1348 1.1370 1.1412 1.1434 1.1477
GBP/CHF 1.2612 1.2630 1.2663 1.2681 1.2714 1.2732 1.2764

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

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