31 8 月 2018

Daily  Market View

 

Daily  Market View

Friday, August 31, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26008 2901.75 7648.25
-0.66% -0.59% -0.41%

Gains in U.S stocks came to a halt yesterday as concerns rose among investors that the U.S.-Chinese trade dispute will intensify, while economic turmoil in Turkey and Argentina sent those countries’ currencies tumbling. Stock markets and major government bond yields have risen in recent weeks on hopes that a global trade war can be averted, particularly with the leaders of the United States and Canada optimistic they could reach a new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) by today. Investor sentiment darkened, however, on the prospect that U.S. tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods may likely take effect in late September. U.S. Treasury yields fell yesterday morning after a measure of underlying inflation hit the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target for the third time this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 111.9 points, or 0.43 percent, the S&P 500 lost 8.55 points or 0.29 percent and the NASDAQ dropped 10.86 points, or 0.13 percent.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

China Non-manufacturing PMI 01:00 53.7 54

aug

China Manufacturing PMI 01:00 51 51.2

jul

Japan Housing Starts (YoY) 05:00 -4.3% -7.1%

jul

German Retail Sales (YoY) 06:00 1.3% 3.0%

jul

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 09:00 8.2% 8.3%

aug

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 09:00 1.1% 1.1%

aug

U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager 13:45 64 65.5

aug

U.S U of Mich. Sentiment 14:00 95.5 95.3

aug

Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count 17:00   1044
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Apple Inc., which rose 0.92% or 2.05 points to trade at 225.03 at the close. Meanwhile, Walmart Inc. added 0.48% or 0.46 points to end at 96.10 and Verizon Communications Inc. was up 0.33% or 0.18 points to 54.75 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Caterpillar Inc., which fell 1.97% or 2.80 points to trade at 139.06 at the close. Nike Inc. declined 1.68% or 1.39 points to end at 81.40 and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. was down 1.25% or 0.86 points to 67.80.

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 0.26%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Bridgeline Digital Inc. which rose 53.40% to 1.3800, CPI Card Group Inc. which was up 38.52% to settle at 3.74 and Insys Therapeutics Inc. which gained 34.05% to close at 10.67. The worst performers were Cronos Group Inc. which was down 28.41% to 9.1200 in late trade, GreenPro Capital Corp which lost 20.49% to settle at 6.000000 and Kirklands Inc. which was down 18.78% to 9.34 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose yesterday to the highest in more than a month, extending gains on growing evidence of disruptions to crude supply from Iran and Venezuela and after a fall in U.S crude inventories. U.S crude was 89 cents higher at $70.40, after earlier hitting a session high of $70.50. Both contracts were at their highest in more than one month. A rally that started earlier in the day accelerated as U.S crude rose above $70 a barrel, and more speculators entered the market. There are pretty good tailwinds here that will keep people jumping on board. Iranian crude exports are likely to drop to a little more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, against a peak of 3.1 million bpd in April, as importers bow to American pressure to cut orders. Crude exports from crisis-struck OPEC member Venezuela have also fallen sharply, halving in recent years to about 1 million bpd. Official U.S oil inventory data on Wednesday also helped the bullish trend. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by a larger than expected 2.6 million barrels.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold slid below key support of $1,200 an ounce yesterday, undermined by a firmer dollar following strong U.S economic data. Spot gold lost 0.6 percent to $1,198.84 an ounce, while December U.S gold futures settled down $6.50, or 0.5 percent, at $1,205. Spot gold hit a six-day low of $1,195.95. Although we have quite a high conviction for higher prices in the medium and long term, we see a little bit of a challenge in the short term as long as the dollar remains strong. The dollar index gained against a basket of major currencies after U.S. consumer spending increased in July, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Even with all of the geopolitical and trade tensions, we’re still seeing good earnings by companies and that’s supporting higher equity markets too pressuring gold. Spot gold has been trading within an $8 range over the past two sessions, with investors keenly watching the psychological $1,200 level after the metal broke below that mark and hit a 1-1/2 year low of $1,159.96 early this month. The greenback’s strength against the yuan was making bullion expensive for buyers in the world’s biggest bullion consumer, China, yesterday. Gold investors also trimmed positions ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend. While a relatively stronger Dollar and U.S economic growth are hurting the bullion’s appeal, concerns that Turkey’s financial crisis could spread may give the metal a reversal of fate. Spot silver fell 1.2 percent at $14.54 an ounce, earlier sliding to $14.47, a six-day low. Platinum lost 0.7 percent at $790.49 per ounce, while palladium was unchanged at percent at $965 after hitting its highest since June 19 at $983.75. Copper prices fell for the second straight session yesterday, with some investors still nervous about the impact of recent trade tensions on global growth.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures rose for a third consecutive session yesterday, adding to a steep rise the day before on concerns that Russia may curb exports after a drought pushed prices higher. Wheat closed up 4.4 percent on Wednesday. Soybeans and corn rose, but gains were limited by expectations of all-time high output in the United States. Soybeans were up 0.5 percent while corn also added 0.5 percent.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, August 30, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26156 26166 25944 26008 -137
S & P 500 SPM18 2915.5 2916.25 2895.5 2901.75 -13
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7672.25 7696.75 7626 7648.25 -20.5
Hang Seng HSH18 28468 28510 28039 28065 -212
Nikkei 225 NKH18 23050 23070 22830 22880 25
FTSE 100 FTH18 7542 7546.5 7480.5 7490 -72
Gold GCJ18 1213 1213.8 1201.8 1205.6 -7
Silver SIK18 1467.5 1469.5 1441.5 1445 -23
Copper HGK18 270.8 271.35 265.5 267.35 -3.25
Crude Oil CLK18 69.68 70.46 69.52 70.01 0.35
Wheat WK18 546.25 549 529.75 535.25 -5.5
Soybeans SK18 838 844.25 828.75 831 -4.25
Corn CK18 357 358.5 355.5 356 0

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25691 25817 25913 26039 26135 26261 26357
SPM18 2872.00 2883.75 2892.75 2904.50 2913.50 2925.25 2934.25
NDM18 7546.50 7586.25 7617.25 7657.00 7688.00 7727.75 7758.75
HSH18 27428 27734 27899 28205 28370 28676 28841
NKH18 22543 22687 22783 22927 23023 23167 23263
FTH18 7398.83 7439.67 7464.83 7505.67 7530.83 7571.67 7596.83
GCJ18 1188.33 1195.07 1200.33 1207.07 1212.33 1219.07 1224.33
SIK18 1406.50 1424.00 1434.50 1452.00 1462.50 1480.00 1490.50
HGK18 258.93 262.22 264.78 268.07 270.63 273.92 276.48
CLK18 68.59 69.06 69.53 70.00 70.47 70.94 71.41
WK18 507.75 518.75 527.00 538.00 546.25 557.25 565.50
SK18 809.58 819.17 825.08 834.67 840.58 850.17 856.08
CK18 351.83 353.67 354.83 356.67 357.83 359.67 360.83

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-31

     
Market Summary
週四(8月30日)美元指數止跌反彈,晚間全球市場短線波動劇烈。因接連出現了許多重要數據,日內公佈的美國上週初請失業救濟金人數為21.3萬人,高於前值的21.0萬人,而7月核心PCE指數年率為2%,高於預期的1.9 %並且升至6年高位,提振美聯儲12月加息的可能性。與此同時,加拿大公佈的6月GDP不及預期,使得美元短線反彈,再度逼近95.00關口,最終收於94.70。

現貨黃金週四轉跌,亞市早盤開於1206.20美元/金衡盎司後金價短暫上漲,錄得日內高點1207.55美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價震盪下行。歐市金價反彈,多頭上攻,觸及高位後回落。美市金價跌幅加大,出現跳水行情,觸及日內低點1195.95美元/金衡盎司後反彈,金價再度小幅上漲,終收於1199.40美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週四收漲0.41美元,或0.59%,報70.11美元/桶。因美國原油庫存報告利多影響仍在發酵,同時伊朗制裁也繼續為油價帶來支撐,不過美元反彈限制了油價的上行空間。

美國股市在週四結束了連漲走勢收低,因貿易不安情緒加重,投資者在勞工節長週末前的避險交易加速。其中基礎材料、生活消費品和工業等下跌的板塊帶領股指走低。截至收盤,道瓊工業指數下跌137.65點,或0.53%,至25,986.92點;標準普爾500指數下跌12.91點,或0.44%,至2,901.13點;納斯達克指數收挫21.32點,或0.26%,至8,088.36點。

個股方面,蘋果 AAPL.O 創下紀錄收盤新高,上漲0.92%,此前公佈將在9月12日發布新款iPhone。同時,沃爾瑪公司 WMT上漲了0.48%,威訊通信公司 VZ漲0.33%。而卡特彼勒公司 CAT,下跌1.97%。耐克公司 NKE下跌1.68%,沃博聯 WBA收盤時跌1.25%。

日本股市週四小幅收高,因貿易協商的積極進展支撐人氣,但投資者在尾盤時段迅速了結獲利。其中造船業、銀行和化工、石油和塑料等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高。日經指數終場上漲0.09%或21.28點,收22,869.50點。

個股方面,創業板吸引買盤,新興企業市場上漲1.04%,嘉斯達克市場上漲0.52%。權重股領漲,迅銷上漲0.76%,軟銀集團漲0.84%。而礦業類股為漲幅第二大的板塊,此前油價在週四延續漲勢,因美國原油庫存下降且伊朗和委內瑞拉的供應預計會受到影響。日本國際石油開發帝石上漲1.45%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收跌,最低探至110.941一線,全數回吐前一交易日升幅。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗110.600一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標指向111.500一線。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收跌,震蕩交投於1.17一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.16100一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標看向1.17700一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜震蕩收平,窄幅交投於1.30關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.28800一線。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.31000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收跌,失守1200關口。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力目標指向1214一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐考驗1190一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜延續收漲,小幅探高至70關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於69.40一線。上行方面,油價關鍵阻力位於71一線。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜高位回落收跌,一度下破26000關口後 收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標向下。後市來看,價格阻力目標考驗26200一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25800一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅收跌,一度從23065一線高位跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,RSI指標拐頭向下。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22600一線,上方阻力位看向22900一線。

 

 

30 8 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

         

FOREX Newsletter

August 30, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Dollar gained against most currencies yesterday especially those in emerging markets

·      The Pound rallied after comments on Brexit by European Union negotiator Michel Barnier

·      The Single Currency was sharply lower against the British Pound yesterday

·      Market sentiment was supported by hopes that Canada will join the new trade agreement

It has been a week of good news in the financial markets and the record-breaking levels in U.S. stocks tell us that investors are pleased with the recent developments. Particularly the fact that the U.S reached a trade deal with Mexico, talks with Canada are going well and the EU is willing to work with the UK. It remains to be seen whether these talks will turn into paper agreements but the hope that it will have enough to drive currencies and equities sharply higher. As long as the positive headlines continue to flow in, the risk rally should continue. USD/JPY is finally participating in the move thanks to a stronger Q2 GDP report. Economists were looking for growth to be revised lower but instead, it was revised up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Today’s personal income and personal spending reports should also be stronger as earnings and retail sales increased last month. Sterling was the best performer yesterday gaining more than 1% against all of the major currencies. According to the European Union’s Chief Brexit negotiator Barnier, the EU is ready to offer the UK a deal that it hasn’t had with any other country. Coming hours after Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab complained about his availability for talks, the possibility of an unprecedented offer sent sterling sharply higher. GBP/USD broke out of a 5-day long consolidation to trade above 1.30 while EUR/GBP experienced its strongest one day decline in more than 2 months. Raab is heading back to Brussels on Friday to the resume negotiations with the goal of reaching an agreement by November. This type of news is exactly what sterling traders have been waiting for. The Euro pulled back and it came off its highs to hit a low of 1.1650 but with all of the good news, EURUSD found itself back at 1.17. The rally occurred despite weaker German consumer confidence and softer French consumer spending. One of the worst performing currencies yesterday was the Australian dollar.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL) Medium   -3.0% 1.6%
07:55 German Unemployment Change (000’s) (AUG) High   -8k -6k
07:55 German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (AUG) High   5.2% 5.2%
08:30 U.K Net Consumer Credit (JUL) Medium   1.5b 1.6b
08:30 U.K Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL) Medium   3.9b 3.9b
08:30 U.K Mortgage Approvals (JUL) Medium   65.0k 65.6k
12:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) High   2.0% 2.0%
12:30 Canada Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q) High   3.1% 1.3%
12:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN) High   2.3% 2.6%
12:30 U.S Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL) High   2.0% 1.9%
12:30 U.S Personal Income (JUL) Medium   0.4% 0.4%
12:30 U.S Personal Spending (JUL) Medium   0.4% 0.4%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 25) Medium   213k 210k
23:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG) Medium   -10 -10
23:30 Japan Jobless Rate (JUL) Medium   2.4% 2.4%

 

Euro

The single currency was flat to lower yesterday, with peripheral markets outperforming on a pick-up in risk appetite after Canada’s plans to rejoin NAFTA talks eased concerns about global trade. The U.S., Canada a, d Mexico have until Friday to reach a deal to update the North America Free Trade Agreement. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1650 and a high of 1.1708 before closing the day around 1.1706 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded lower against the U.S Dollar yesterday. On the release front, Japanese consumer confidence edged lower to 43.3, just below the estimate of 43.4 points. In the U.S, Preliminary GDP jumped 4.2%, beating the estimate of 4.1%. Pending Home Sales disappointed with a reading of -0.7%, well off the estimate of 0.3%. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.10 and a high of 111.80 before closing the day around 111.65 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound surged against the U.S Dollar yesterday after an official from the European Union indicated that progress has been made in the Brexit negotiations. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said Europe is prepared to offer an unprecedented partnership to the UK. The news had been positive for the currency. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2843 and a high of 1.3030 before closing the day at 1.3023 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar gained slightly against the U.S Dollar yesterday. Canada’s top trade negotiator praised Mexico’s trade concessions on autos and labor rights on Tuesday as she rejoined NAFTA talks, while U.S. lawmakers warned that a bilateral U.S.-Mexico trade deal would struggle to win approval in Congress. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2900 and a high of 1.2960 before closing the day at 1.2904 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has fallen sharply in yesterday’s trading session in response to news that Westpac Bank, Australia’s second-largest lender, has hiked mortgage rates for both owner-occupier and investor borrowers. The bank cited a “sustained increase in wholesale funding costs” as the reason behind the out-of-cycle move.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7273 and a high of 0.7347 before closing the day at 0.7297 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 65 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.55%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.64%.

   

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 1.08%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.58%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 29, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16956 1.17084 1.16505 1.1706 0.0013
USD/JPY 111.172 111.809 111.103 111.659 0.4870
GBP/USD 1.28663 1.30307 1.28435 1.30236 0.0154
USD/CHF 0.9757 0.97741 0.97003 0.97032 -0.0057
USD/CAD 1.29252 1.29606 1.29008 1.29048 -0.0025
EUR/JPY 130.034 130.825 129.56 130.721 0.7180
GBP/JPY 143.053 145.542 142.798 145.439 2.3410
CHF/JPY 113.911 115.089 113.707 115.043 1.1700
AUD/JPY 81.529 81.764 81.018 81.605 0.0480
EUR/GBP 0.90882 0.90898 0.89813 0.89846 -0.0098
EUR/CHF 1.14145 1.14215 1.13419 1.13597 -0.0055
GBP/CHF 1.25544 1.26644 1.25087 1.26393 0.0073

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1610 1.1630 1.1668 1.1688 1.1726 1.1746 1.1784
USD/JPY 110.53 110.82 111.24 111.52 111.94 112.23 112.65
GBP/USD 1.2714 1.2779 1.2901 1.2966 1.3088 1.3153 1.3276
USD/CHF 0.9604 0.9652 0.9678 0.9726 0.9751 0.9800 0.9825
USD/CAD 1.2824 1.2862 1.2884 1.2922 1.2943 1.2982 1.3003
EUR/JPY 128.65 129.10 129.91 130.37 131.18 131.63 132.44
GBP/JPY 140.90 141.85 143.64 144.59 146.39 147.34 149.13
CHF/JPY 112.76 113.23 114.14 114.61 115.52 116.00 116.90
AUD/JPY 80.41 80.72 81.16 81.46 81.91 82.21 82.65
EUR/GBP 0.8839 0.8910 0.8947 0.9019 0.9056 0.9127 0.9164
EUR/CHF 1.1248 1.1295 1.1327 1.1374 1.1407 1.1454 1.1486
GBP/CHF 1.2388 1.2448 1.2544 1.2604 1.2700 1.2760 1.2855

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-30

     
Market Summary
週三(8月29日)美元指數下跌,因兩則數據掀起市場波瀾。雖然最新出爐的美國二季度GDP修正值創下四年新高,為4.2%。但隨後公佈的新屋銷售指數月率下降0.7%,低於前值0.9%和預期0.3%,延續了近幾個月的下滑趨勢,反映房市供應不足。這一降幅表明供應的限制和強勁的就業市場在推高價格。由於就業市場增長強勁,同時市場多年來供應不足,共同推高了房價,導致越來越多的潛在買家無法負擔。最終美元指數收於94.55。此外,歐盟首席脫歐談判官巴尼耶一句“歐洲準備向英國提供前所未有的合作夥伴關係”令英鎊/美元多頭備受鼓舞,飆升逾140點。

現貨黃金週三上漲,亞市早盤開於1200.50美元/金衡盎司後金價短暫下挫,錄得日內低點1200.20美元/金衡盎司後轉漲,金價震盪上行。歐市金價陷入盤整,多空爭奪激烈。美市多頭加大進攻力度,空方有所退縮,金價錄得日內高點1207.00美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,終收於1206.35美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週三收漲1.20美元,或1.75%,報69.70美元/桶。因美國原油庫存報告整體利多,同時伊朗原油出口預計因制裁重啟而大幅下降,這也加劇了原油供應缺口擴大的風險,從而為油價帶來有效提振。

美國股市在週三收高,其中科技、消費服務和石油和天然氣等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高。道瓊工業指數上漲60.55點,或0.23%,至26,124.57點;標準普爾500指數上升16.52點,或0.57%,至2,914.04點;納斯達克指數上升79.65點,或0.99%,至8,109.69點。

個股方面,微軟公司 MSFT上漲1.60%。同時,蘋果公司 AAPL上漲了1.49%;維薩卡公司 V漲1.26%。馬拉松油料公司 MRO,上漲5.17%;再生元製藥公司 REGN收盤時漲4.25%。亞馬遜公司 AMZN上升3.38%,領升非必需性消費類股 .SPLRCD ,亞馬遜有望繼蘋果之後,成為第二家市值達到1萬億美元的美國公司。

日本股市週三收高,其中造船業、橡膠和汽車和零件等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高。日經指數終場上漲0.18%或41.03點,收22,854.50點。

個股方面,東京電子漲0.87%,愛德萬測試漲1.95%,勝高攀升1.49%,思可林集團勁揚2.44%。而汽車股則漲跌不一,因美國和墨西哥之間達成北美自由貿易協定(NAFTA)修訂協議,預計會影響美國以外汽車商的區域戰略。豐田汽車漲0.60%,馬自達跌0.46%,日產汽車小跌0.17%,本田汽車漲0.53%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至111.800一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐考驗111.100一線。上行方面,價格阻力目標進一步指向112關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,一度觸及日低至1.16505一線後反彈走高。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.16100一線。上行方面,價格阻力進一步看向1.17800一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜大幅收漲,上破1.30關口。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標大幅向上。後市看來,價格考驗1.30關口支撐力度。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.31000一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,持穩1200關口上方。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,金價阻力目標指向1216一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐考驗1200關口。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜大幅收漲,最高探至69.74一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於67.50一線。上行方面,油價關鍵阻力位於70關口。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜高位震蕩收漲,窄幅交投於26100一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標超買。後市來看,價格阻力目標進一步指向26300一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25900一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜反彈收漲,全數收復前一交易日跌幅並探高至22990一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22800一線,上方阻力位看向23000關口。

 

 

29 8 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

August 29, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      According to the Conference Board, in August consumer sentiment, hit its strongest level in 17 years

·      The Euro appreciated more than 4 cents in a move that took the pair from its 1-year low

·      The latest Brexit headlines suggest that negotiations aren’t going as well as the UK hopes

·      Canadian Foreign Minister is in Washington right now for high-stakes trade talks with the U.S

The U.S Dollar ended the session lower against some currencies and higher versus others, there’s no question that the sell-off is beginning to lose momentum. Consumer confidence beat expectations but higher interest rates caused house prices to rise less than anticipated and the stronger dollar contributed to the wider trade deficit. Revisions to second quarter GDP report is due for release today along with pending home sales but the dollar should take its cue from stocks, risk appetite and ultimately Canadian-US trade headlines. USD/JPY has been hovering above 111 since the beginning of the week. The only currency that has consistently performed worse than the dollar was the Japanese Yen and the only reason for that is the recovery in risk. If USD/JPY drops below 110.80, the next stop should be 110. In the past 2 weeks, we’ve seen a dramatic recovery in the euro. The single currency appreciated more than 4 cents in a move that took the pair from its 1-year low of 1.13 to a 3 week high of 1.1733. The recovery was driven by the decline in the U.S. dollar, improvement in risk appetite, softer U.S. economic reports, stronger German data and short covering. However, now that EUR/USD breached 1.17 and came within 17 pips of our 1.1750 target it may be time to start looking at selling euros. On a fundamental basis, the record-breaking moves in U.S stocks will boost business and consumer confidence. In fact according to the Conference Board, in August consumer sentiment hit its strongest level in 17 years. This positive attitude should translate into more spending especially after the confidence report showed more respondents preparing to make big-ticket purchases over the next 6 months. With more spending come more growth and healthier U.S. data. German data has also been decent as shown by German IFO report but the real problem for the euro is Italy. Italian 10-year bond yields hit 4-year highs yesterday reflecting renewed concerns about the country’s budget. Right now investors are looking at it as a localized problem as they’ve sold Italian bonds but not the euro. Sterling turned lower yesterday on the back of the recovery in the Dollar. The latest Brexit headlines also suggest that negotiations aren’t going as well as the UK hopes. Prime Minister May said a no deal Brexit is not the end the world.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (AUG) Medium   43.3 43.5
06:00 German GfK Consumer Confidence (SEP) Medium   10.6 10.6
06:45 French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) Medium   1.7% 1.7%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 24) Medium      
12:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (2Q) High   4.0% 4.1%
12:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q) High   3.0% 3.0%
12:30 U.S Personal Consumption (2Q S) Medium   3.9% 4.0%
12:30 U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q) Medium   2.0% 2.0%
14:00 U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium     -4.0%
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 24) Medium      
23:50 Japan Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) Medium   1.2% 1.8%

 

Euro

The single currency traded higher yesterday. Lending growth to euro zone companies and households held steady at a post-crisis high last month while an indicator of money circulating in the euro area, which often foreshadows future activity, slowed unexpectedly, the ECB said. Lending growth to non-financial corporations expanded by 4.1 percent in July. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1661 and a high of 1.1732 before closing the day around 1.1693 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded little changed yesterday. On the release front, BoJ Core CPI edged up to 0.5%, above the estimate of 0.3%. In the U.S, manufacturing and consumer confidence data was stronger than expected. CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 133.4, crushing the estimate of 126.6 points. Today, Japan releases consumer confidence. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.93 and a high of 111.33 before closing the day around 111.17 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound was unchanged yesterday. U.S manufacturing and consumer confidence data was stronger than expected. CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 133.4. Today, the U.S publishes Preliminary GDP and Pending Home Sales. With the negotiations over Brexit stalled, there is an increasing likelihood of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2859 and a high of 1.2930 before closing the day at 1.2870 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to a nearly three-month high on the prospect of Canada reaching a deal this week to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he believed the United States can reach a trade deal with Canada this week after coming to an agreement with Mexico. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2885 and a high of 1.2980 before closing the day at 1.2930 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar traded slightly lower. With the new Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison having filled most of the cabinet roles, attention should turn back to economics, commodities and global investor sentiment as the main driver of AUD this week. Research from Australian lender ANZ meanwhile suggests there is some evidence that businesses are reacting negatively to political uncertainty. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7319 and a high of 0.7360 before closing the day at 0.7332 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 73 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 22 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.51%.

 

Appendix

 

 

FOREX Closing Prices for August 28, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16772 1.17321 1.16611 1.1693 0.0017
USD/JPY 111.059 111.337 110.935 111.172 0.1130
GBP/USD 1.28922 1.293 1.28597 1.2870 -0.0021
USD/CHF 0.97938 0.98074 0.97434 0.97598 -0.0037
USD/CAD 1.2966 1.29802 1.2885 1.2930 -0.0036
EUR/JPY 129.706 130.251 129.625 130.003 0.3100
GBP/JPY 143.191 143.641 143.021 143.098 -0.0940
CHF/JPY 113.372 113.941 113.261 113.873 0.5440
AUD/JPY 81.595 81.744 81.369 81.557 -0.0570
EUR/GBP 0.90545 0.90967 0.90516 0.90824 0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.14372 1.14518 1.14144 1.14148 -0.0025
GBP/CHF 1.2627 1.26363 1.25554 1.25658 -0.0064

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1588 1.1624 1.1659 1.1695 1.1730 1.1766 1.1801
USD/JPY 110.56 110.75 110.96 111.15 111.36 111.55 111.76
GBP/USD 1.2773 1.2816 1.2843 1.2887 1.2913 1.2957 1.2984
USD/CHF 0.9669 0.9706 0.9733 0.9770 0.9797 0.9834 0.9861
USD/CAD 1.2788 1.2837 1.2883 1.2932 1.2978 1.3027 1.3074
EUR/JPY 129.04 129.33 129.67 129.96 130.29 130.59 130.92
GBP/JPY 142.25 142.63 142.87 143.25 143.49 143.87 144.11
CHF/JPY 112.76 113.01 113.44 113.69 114.12 114.37 114.80
AUD/JPY 80.99 81.18 81.37 81.56 81.74 81.93 82.12
EUR/GBP 0.9012 0.9032 0.9057 0.9077 0.9102 0.9122 0.9147
EUR/CHF 1.1365 1.1390 1.1402 1.1427 1.1440 1.1464 1.1477
GBP/CHF 1.2454 1.2505 1.2535 1.2586 1.2616 1.2667 1.2697

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

29 8 月 2018

 Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Wednesday, August 29, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26085 2899.25 7578.25
+0.11% +0.06% +0.21%

U.S stocks were little changed yesterday, with the benchmark S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hovering at all-time highs, a day after the United States and Mexico reached an agreement on an overhaul of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The two countries agreed on Monday to overhaul NAFTA and U.S. officials expressed optimism a deal could be reached this week. The benchmark S&P 500 and the NASDAQ indexes started the session strongly to hit fresh all-time highs, as they did on Monday after the trade deal was announced, before pulling back. After the initial surge to the top of the range you tend to get a little bit of a pullback. You catch people taking profits at the all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 14.73 points, or 0.06 percent, the S&P 500 was down 1.00 points, or 0.03 percent and the NASDAQ was down 0.46 points, or 0.01 percent. Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were lower, though five of them were down less than 0.1 percent.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

Japan Consumer Confidence Index 05:00 43.3 43.5

        sep

German GfK Consumer Confidence 06:00 10.6 10.6

2Q

French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 06:45 1.7% 1.7%

aug

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00    

2Q

U.S Gross Domestic Product Price Index 12:30 3.0% 3.0%

2Q

U.S Personal Consumption 12:30 3.9% 4.0%

jul

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 14:00   -4.0%

aug

DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories 14:30    

jul

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) 23:50 1.2% 1.8%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.06% to hit a new 6-months high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walmart Inc., which rose 1.62% or 1.53 points to trade at 96.07 at the close. Meanwhile, Apple Inc. added 0.81% or 1.76 points to end at 219.70 and Cisco Systems Inc. was up 0.77% or 0.36 points to 46.95 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 0.72% or 2.53 points to trade at 351.21 at the close. Coca-Cola Company declined 0.70% or 0.32 points to end at 45.37 and United Technologies Corporation was down 0.64% or 0.86 points to 134.50.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index climbed 0.15%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Affirmed NV which rose 246.88% to 5.550, Asta Funding Inc. which was up 31.58% to settle at 3.75 and Brooks Automation Inc. which gained 30.91% to close at 39.60. The worst performers were Akcea Therapeutics Inc. which was down 25.33% to 24.73 in late trade, Regulus Therapeutics Inc. which lost 19.56% to settle at 0.246 and Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc. which was down 18.18% to 4.050 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday as some investors took profits on recent strong gains, but losses were limited the day after a U.S-Mexico trade agreement eased worries about tensions between the two countries. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 48 cents to $68.39 a barrel. Last week Brent marked a 5.6 percent gain, while WTI increased 4.3 percent. Market participants awaited industry data on U.S oil inventories that were expected to show a weekly drop in crude stocks. Official data is due today. Boosting market sentiment was news that the United States and Mexico agreed on Monday to overhaul the NAFTA. Canada’s top trade negotiator joins her Mexican and U.S. counterparts in Washington on Tuesday in a bid to remain part of the trilateral pact. Prices also drew support from findings of the monitoring committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Investors are more confident that supply should fall short of demand in the coming months.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold turned negative yesterday as U.S Treasuries rose after the United States and Mexico struck a trade deal, with analysts saying ongoing U.S-China tensions would continue to weigh. U.S Treasury yields rose across maturities to weekly highs as global trade war fears abated a day after the United States and Mexico reached agreement on an overhaul of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). On the margin, it’s not much, but real rates rose and that took some of the wind out of gold sails. The easing of trade tensions prompted investors to reduce safe-haven positions in U.S. government debt. Sales of long-term Treasuries, in particular, pressured prices and drove yields up more at the long end of the curve, indicating bullishness about the economic outlook. Spot gold lost 0.4 percent to $1,206.39 per ounce, earlier touching $1,214.28, its highest level since Aug. 10. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $1.60, or 0.1 percent, at $1,214.40 per ounce. Often purchased as a hedge against geopolitical risk, gold is highly sensitive to rising yields, because it pays no yield, yet costs to insure and store. In recent months, investors have sought safety from the trade disputes in U.S. Treasuries, which entails buying dollars. But a weaker U.S dollar kept gold supported yesterday, as it generally boosts demand for dollar-denominated commodities. The U.S.-Mexico deal pushed the dollar lower against a basket of major currencies as investors sought alternative assets and the greenback’s safe-haven appeal declined. The main trade dispute, meaning U.S.-China conflict, is still going on so this NAFTA deal is just a small aspect. Net short positions in COMEX gold contracts increased for a sixth straight week to a new record. Spot silver declined 0.2 percent to $14.82 an ounce, after hitting $14.99, a nearly two-week high, while platinum lost 1.1 percent to $790.74, after touching a two-week high of $810.

 

 

Traditional AgricultureCorn futures edged down yesterday to extend losses into a second session, with ample global supply keeping prices near their lowest in six weeks. Soybean prices have been weighed down amid an outbreak of African swine flu China that could threaten demand for animal feed.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, August 27, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26079 26153 26041 26085 11
S & P 500 SPM18 2899 2906 2894.25 2899.25 0.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7568 7596.75 7564 7578.25 10.5
Hang Seng HSH18 28454 28545 28197 28286 38
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22940 22980 22775 22775 -10
FTSE 100 FTH18 7621.5 7632 7587.5 7608 38.5
Gold GCJ18 1217.1 1220.4 1205.6 1206.9 -10.5
Silver SIK18 1483.5 1494 1459.5 1462.5 -22
Copper HGK18 270.75 274.55 269.05 272.2 1.5
Crude Oil CLK18 68.9 69.16 68.18 68.49 -0.39
Wheat WK18 500 504 494.25 498 -1.25
Soybeans SK18 835 836.5 820 820.5 -13.75
Corn CK18 345.5 347.25 340.5 341 -5.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25921 25981 26033 26093 26145 26205 26257
SPM18 2881.92 2888.08 2893.67 2899.83 2905.42 2911.58 2917.17
NDM18 7529.83 7546.92 7562.58 7579.67 7595.33 7612.42 7628.08
HSH18 27792 27995 28140 28343 28488 28691 28836
NKH18 22502 22638 22707 22843 22912 23048 23117
FTH18 7541.83 7564.67 7586.33 7609.17 7630.83 7653.67 7675.33
GCJ18 1186.73 1196.17 1201.53 1210.97 1216.33 1225.77 1231.13
SIK18 1415.50 1437.50 1450.00 1472.00 1484.50 1506.50 1519.00
HGK18 263.82 266.43 269.32 271.93 274.82 277.43 280.32
CLK18 67.08 67.63 68.06 68.61 69.04 69.59 70.02
WK18 483.75 489.00 493.50 498.75 503.25 508.50 513.00
SK18 798.33 809.17 814.83 825.67 831.33 842.17 847.83
CK18 331.83 336.17 338.58 342.92 345.33 349.67 352.08

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-29

 

   
Market Summary
週二(8月28日)美元指數持續下跌,但跌勢已較昨日有所緩解。因美國和墨西哥達成貿易協議,市場風險情緒回升,美元因此承壓。數據方面,日內公佈的美國6月S&P/CS房價指數年率為6.31%,低於前值的6.51%。但美國8月諮商會消費者信心指數升至133.4,創下近18年新高,因消費者在近期對經濟表現出更好的感覺,而對長期增長的樂觀情緒有所減弱。受此提振,美元指數基本收復日內跌幅,終收於94.72。

現貨黃金週二大幅下挫,亞市早盤開於1210.90美元/金衡盎司後金價小幅上漲後轉跌,震盪下行,之後又小幅反彈。歐市金價繼續上漲,錄得日內高點1214.00美元/金衡盎司後轉跌。美市金價出現跳水,直線墜落,下破1200關口,錄得日內低點1199.35美元/金衡盎司後企穩,終收於1200.85美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週二收跌0.42元,或0.61%,報68.50美元/桶。因石油輸出國組織(OPEC)增產行動仍在穩步推進,這令供應面擔憂情緒有所增加,加上伊朗制裁仍未對油價帶來穩固支撐。

美國股市在週二收高,其中消費服務、科技和金融等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高。道瓊工業指數上漲14.38點,或0.06%,至26,064.02點;標準普爾500指數上升0.78點,或0.03%,至2,897.52點;納斯達克指數上升12.14點,或0.15%,至8,030.04點。

個股方面,高通公司 QCOM股票大漲至一年高點,漲幅為3.62%。蘋果公司 AAPL股票大漲至歷史高點,拉升0.81%。思科系統公司 CSCO股票大漲至高點,漲幅為0.77%。 Affimed NV AFMD股票大漲至一年高點,漲幅為246.88%。布魯克自動化BRKS股票大漲至高點,漲幅為30.91%。

日本股市週二收高,因先前美國和墨西哥達成貿易協議,提振了投資者的風險信心,並刺激汽車類股買盤。日經指數終場小漲0.06%或13.83點,收22,813.47點。

個股方面,豐田汽車漲0.86%。豐田擴大與優步的合作、將追加出資5億美元,攜手研發自動駕駛車。蘋果液晶面板供應商Japan Display Inc大漲2.42%,收169日元。而夏普則下跌0.81%,收2,695日元,創4週來收盤新低水準。夏普睽違5年、重返可攜式液晶電視市場,力拼拿下日本5成市佔。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收漲,窄幅交投於111.100一线附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市看來,價格支撐目標考驗110.800一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於111.600一線,突破則進一步指向112關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至1.17320一線後有所收窄。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.16100一線。上行方面,價格阻力進一步看向1.17700一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收低,橫盤整理於1.28700一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格初步支撐依舊考驗1.28000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.29700一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜回落收跌,從日高1214一線承壓走低。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱温和,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,金價阻力目標指向1215一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐目標下看1190一線。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收跌,窄幅交投於68.60一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱温和,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於67.00一線。上行方面,油價關鍵阻力位於70關口。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜震盪收平,高位交投於26100一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸逼近超買區。後市來看,價格阻力目標進一步指向26200一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25700一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜回落收跌,一度逼近23000關口後跳水。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22600一線,上方阻力位看向23000關口。

 

 

市場報告                     2018-08-28

 

     
Market Summary
週一(8月27日)美元指數下跌。因市場再起波瀾,美墨達成自貿協議的消息大大提振市場。根據報導,美國與墨西哥正式達成貿易協議以取代NAFTA,協議料將於11月簽署;而美國與加拿大也將展開談判,美國總統特朗普稱預計協議將很快達成。消息傳來之後,美元指數下破95.00關口,終收於94.79。

現貨黃金週一持續反彈,亞市早盤開於1206.20美元/金衡盎司後金價小幅上漲後轉跌,震盪下行,漲跌不定。歐市金價繼續下挫,錄得日內低點1202.80美元/金衡盎司後反彈,多頭上攻。美市金價再現直線拉升,金價跳漲,錄得日內高點1212.20美元/金衡盎司後轉跌又小幅反彈,終收於1210.85美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週一收漲0.22元,或0.32%,報68.92美元/桶。因美墨貿易協議達成為原油等風險資產帶來支撐。此外,美國油服公司貝克休斯上週五公佈數據顯示,截至8月24日當週,美國石油活躍鑽井數銳減9座至860座,創為2016年5月以來最大單週降幅。

美國股市在週一收高,其中基礎材料、工業和科技等上漲的板塊帶領股指走高。道瓊工業指數收高259.29點,或1.01%,至26,049.64點;標準普爾500指數 上升22.05點,或0.77%,至2,896.74點;納斯達克指數上升71.92點,或0.91%,至8,017.90點。

個股方面,高盛集團GS,上漲3.19%。同時,卡特彼勒公司CAT上漲了2.77%,陶氏杜邦公司DWDP漲2.31%。美國超微公司AMD,上漲5.34%,通用汽車公司GM漲4.83%,堪薩斯南方鐵路KSU上升4.69%。

日本股市週一收高,因追隨美股向好走勢,除礦業、船運和航空板塊之外全部上漲。汽車製造企業等出口商類股及科技類股領漲。日經指數終場上漲0.88%或197.87點,收22,799.64點。

個股方面,豐田汽車攀升2.0%,本田汽車上漲1.4%,東京電子漲2.0%,東電化上揚2.7%。防禦設備製造商股票亦受追捧,因投資者認為特朗普先前突然取消國務卿訪朝計劃之後,地緣政治緊張局勢可能升級。 IHI 大漲3.3%,細谷火工 漲2.9%,石川製作所收高0.2%,盤中一度大漲4.4%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,交投於111關口附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱顯現,RSI指標小幅向下。後市看來,價格支撐目標考驗110.800一線。上行方面,價格初步阻力位於111.600一線,突破則進一步指向112關口。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續收漲,最高探至1.16922一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市看來,價格支撐考驗1.16100一線。上行方面,價格阻力進一步看向1.17600一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜小幅收漲,窄幅交投於1.28700一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市看來,價格初步支撐依舊考驗1.28000一線。上行方面,價格阻力位於1.29600一線。

 

XAUUSD

從日線圖上看,金價隔夜小幅收漲,高位交投於1208一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,金價阻力目標進一步指向1218一線。下行方面,金價初步支撐目標下看1200關口。

 

CL_

從日線圖上看,油價隔夜小幅收漲,窄幅交投於68.80一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向上延伸。後市來看,油價初步支撐位於68.00一線。上行方面,油價關鍵阻力位於70關口。

 

DJ_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜大幅收漲,刷新新高至26078一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸逼近超買區。後市來看,價格阻力目標進一步指向26200一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向25700一線。

 

NK_

從日線圖上看,價格隔夜延續收漲,最高探至22895一線。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,價格初步支撐位考驗22620一線,上方阻力位看向23000關口。

 

 

27 8 月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Monday, August 27, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25797 2877.25 7496.75
+0.53% +0.65% +0.97%

U.S stocks rose Friday, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closing at records, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed the central bank’s strategy of gradually normalizing monetary policy, highlighting the strength in the economy and robust corporate results that have helped to support investment appetite for equities. The S&P 500 index added 17.71 points, or 0.6%, its first since record since Jan. 26. The NASDAQ climbed 67.52 points, or 0.9%, carving out its first all-time high since July 25. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 133.37 points, or 0.5%, 3.2% away from its record close on Jan. 26. For the week, the S&P logged a 0.9% gain—a second straight weekly rise. The NASDAQ advanced by 1.7% for the period, while the Dow booked a 0.5% climb. At the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Powell said he sees two risks surrounding rate hikes, which he outlined as “moving too fast and needlessly shortening the expansion, versus moving too slowly and risking a destabilizing overheating.”

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        jul

German Retail Sales (YoY)     3.0%

jul

China Industrial Profits (YoY) 01:30   20.0%

aug

German IFO Business Climate 08:00   101.7

aug

German IFO Expectations 08:00   98.2

aug

German IFO Current Assessment 08:00   105.3

aug

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits CHF 08:00    

jul

U.S Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 12:30   0.43

aug

U.S Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity 14:30   32.3

aug

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 23:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.52% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were DowDuPont Inc., which rose 1.61% or 1.10 points to trade at 69.21 at the close. Meanwhile, Visa Inc. added 1.48% or 2.10 points to end at 144.20 and Intel Corporation was up 1.45% or 0.68 points to 47.66 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 0.55% or 0.46 points to trade at 82.45 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declined 0.52% or 1.23 points to end at 235.11 and Walmart Inc. was down 0.24% or 0.23 points to 94.95.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.86% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Alliance MMA Inc. which rose 110.32% to 0.42, Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc. which was up 38.97% to settle at 5.420 and Geron Corporation which gained 28.78% to close at 5.190. The worst performers were Hibbett Sports Inc. which was down 30.19% to 20.52 in late trade, China Biologic Products Inc. which lost 15.85% to settle at 84.91 and TMSR Holding Company Ltd which was down 15.59% to 4.06 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices gained more than 1 percent on Friday, ending a run of weekly declines on signs that Iran sanctions may limit global supply and that a trade war may not curb China’s appetite for U.S crude. U.S crude was up 89 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $68.72. U.S crude rose more than 4 percent on the week, after seven consecutive declines, and Brent rose 5.3 percent after three weeks of falling prices. Concerns that an escalating trade war between China and the U.S. could slow economic growth and weigh on crude purchases eased slightly after sources told Reuters that China’s Unipec will resume purchases of U.S. crude oil in October, after a two-month halt due to the fight. Worries that Mexico’s incoming administration would not strike a bilateral agreement over NAFTA with the U.S. also weighed on the market, traders said. A dispute over opening up the oil and gas sector is weighing on the talks, Bloomberg reported, citing two people familiar with negotiations.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices rose on Friday as the Dollar came under pressure from clues about the direction of U.S monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which market watchers interpreted as dovish. The greenback weakened as Powell, speaking in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said a gradual approach to raising rates remained appropriate to protect the U.S. economy and keep job growth as strong as possible with inflation under control. It sounds like the Fed is starting to lean a little bit dovish and that is taking the wind out of the U.S. dollar’s sail now. Spot gold had increased 1.8 percent to $1,206.14 an ounce, heading for a 1.9 percent weekly gain. U.S gold futures for December delivery settled up $19.30, or 1.6 percent, at $1,213.30 per ounce. U.S political uncertainty, heightened by the legal woes of two of U.S. President Donald Trump’s former advisers this week, is keeping the dollar under pressure despite tighter U.S. monetary policy, analysts say. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, which could boost demand and prices. A Reuters survey published on Thursday showed analysts expecting U.S. rates to rise twice more this year and twice next year. The Fed next meets over Sept. 25-26. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can be costly to store and insure. Investor appetite for gold has been in the doldrums in recent months. Rate hikes, low inflation, rising equity markets and a strong dollar have significantly diminished the appeal of gold. Last week’s data showed hedge funds and money managers raising their net short position for the sixth straight week to another record in the week to Aug. 14. Spot silver was up 2 percent at $14.76 an ounce, barely changed from last week’s close. Copper rose on Friday, clocking its first weekly gain in four on a softer dollar, though worries about Chinese demand are expected to cap gains as the country’s trade dispute with the United States drags on.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures dropped for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, touching a one-month low on sluggish export demand for U.S wheat despite tightening global supplies. Corn and soybean futures stabilized on Friday after sharp declines.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, August 24, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25677 25826 25651 25797 129
S & P 500 SPM18 2858 2877.25 2856.25 2877.25 19.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7426.25 7499 7422.25 7496.75 72.5
Hang Seng HSH18 27538 27776 27443 27602 -85
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22460 22590 22435 22575 165
FTSE 100 FTH18 7551 7581.5 7541.5 7569.5 33
Gold GCJ18 1191.5 1215 1189.2 1213.5 21.9
Silver SIK18 1445.5 1484 1444 1481 35
Copper HGK18 264.5 271.65 264.1 270.45 6.1
Crude Oil CLK18 67.86 69.28 67.75 68.78 0.96
Wheat WK18 519.75 521.25 512.5 515.5 -6.5
Soybeans SK18 841.75 848 841 842.75 0.75
Corn CK18 346.25 349.5 346 349 2.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25515 25583 25690 25758 25865 25933 26040
SPM18 2842.25 2849.25 2863.25 2870.25 2884.25 2891.25 2905.25
NDM18 7369.58 7395.92 7446.33 7472.67 7523.08 7549.42 7599.83
HSH18 27105 27274 27438 27607 27771 27940 28104
NKH18 22322 22378 22477 22533 22632 22688 22787
FTH18 7506.83 7524.17 7546.83 7564.17 7586.83 7604.17 7626.83
GCJ18 1171.00 1180.10 1196.80 1205.90 1222.60 1231.70 1248.40
SIK18 1415.33 1429.67 1455.33 1469.67 1495.33 1509.67 1535.33
HGK18 258.27 261.18 265.82 268.73 273.37 276.28 280.92
CLK18 66.40 67.07 67.93 68.60 69.46 70.13 70.99
WK18 502.83 507.67 511.58 516.42 520.33 525.17 529.08
SK18 832.83 836.92 839.83 843.92 846.83 850.92 853.83
CK18 343.33 344.67 346.83 348.17 350.33 351.67 353.83

 

  

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

27 8 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

August 27, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Investors focused on Powell comment that there’s no sign of inflation accelerating

·      The Single Currency climbed to its strongest level in 3 weeks on Friday

·      Sterling extended its recovery but the lackluster rally signals that investors are worried about Brexit

·      NZD was supported by this week’s stronger than expected second quarter retail sales

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole sent the U.S Dollar lower against all of the major currencies on Friday. Powell confirmed that further gradual tightening will be needed but investors were not impressed and instead focused on his comment that there’s no sign of inflation accelerating and no elevated risk of it overheating. This along with the Fed minutes which showed concerns about trade, housing and emerging markets casted doubt on a December. Every piece of U.S data released last week also deteriorated with durable goods, existing and new home sales falling. Revisions to Q2 GDP, personal income, spending, Chicago PMI and the trade balance are due for release this week but we don’t think they will help the Dollar. Looking ahead it’s the end of the summer in Europe and North America and the week before a major holiday in the U.S. Most of the major event risks are behind us and with minimal data on the calendar liquidity will truly subside. Euro climbed to its strongest level in 3 weeks. Despite the persistent rise in Italian yields, U.S Dollar flows and short covering has taken the pair sharply higher. Sterling also extended its recovery but the lackluster rally signals that investors are still worried about Brexit. They are skeptical of the recent progress and unhappy about the reports that the October deadline for a Brexit deal could be pushed out by 4 weeks. Nonetheless, Michel Barnier the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator said negotiations have reached the final stage and they will hold continuous talks from here forward. Barnier’s eagerness to cooperate is a breath of fresh air but the Irish border and other issues are difficult ones and until real agreements are made, investors could refrain from buying the currency. There were no major economic reports released last week and nothing substantial on the calendar last week. Technically, GBP/USD is in a downtrend as long as it remains below 1.2950. The New Zealand and Canadian Dollars also extended higher. NZD was supported by this week’s stronger than expected second quarter retail sales and a smaller than anticipated trade deficit but the data isn’t great because the annual trade deficit hit its largest level since March 2009. Dairy prices also fell further, which could reduce the value of dairy exports going forward. Central Bank Governor Orr said this past week their biggest challenge is getting inflation to rise and they haven’t ruled out cutting interest rates to achieve its target. Even if NZD/USD continues to recover, it may find it difficult to rise above the July high of .6860.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium     3.0%
01:30 China Industrial Profits (YoY) (JUL) Low     20.0%
08:00 German IFO Business Climate (AUG) Medium     101.7
08:00 German IFO Expectations (AUG) Medium     98.2
08:00 German IFO Current Assessment (AUG) Medium     105.3
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (AUG 24) Low      
12:30 U.S Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JUL) Low     0.43
14:30 U.S Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (AUG) Low     32.3
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 26) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency has been somewhat noisy during the session but in a good way. The market had beaten this currency down but it seems like fears about the Turkish lira and contagion are starting to drop off a bit. That’s a good sign, and it seems as if the attitude of traders around the world is the step back a bit. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1533 and a high of 1.1638 before closing the day around 1.1623 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair retreated further from 2-week highs amid a US dollar sell-off following Fed’s Powell speech at Jackson Hole. Earlier rose to 111.48, the strongest level since August 6 and recently printed a fresh daily low at 111.10. It was hovering near the lows, with the intraday bias pointing to the downside.  Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.08 and a high of 111.46 before closing the day around 111.25 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has reversed direction on Friday and posted gains. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2845, up 0.26% on the day. On the release front, the number of mortgages approved by major UK banks dropped to 39.6 thousand, shy of the estimate of 40.6 thousand. Brexit continues to hover over the British economy like a dark cloud. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2797 and a high of 1.2879 before closing the day at 1.2849 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened on Friday, recovering from an earlier one-week low as oil prices rose and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell helped boost stocks and weaken the greenback. Powell outlined a steady, surprise-free course for monetary policy in a speech at the annual central banker’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3008 and a high of 1.3101 before closing the day at 1.3035 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar got a little boost at the end of the week as its home country got a new Prime Minister, but AUD/USD remains severely battered and, indeed, at lows not seen since the start of 2016.  Former Treasurer Scott Morrison has replaced Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Liberal Party which governs in a coalition. Turnbull lost the confidence of his party so Morrison becomes Australia’s sixth Prime Minister since 2007. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7236 and a high of 0.7342 before closing the day at 0.7327 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.71%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.27%.

  

Aussie-Yen

 

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.09%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.46%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.01%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 24, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15376 1.16384 1.15334 1.16232 0.0085
USD/JPY 111.236 111.468 111.085 111.252 -0.0180
GBP/USD 1.28137 1.28792 1.27976 1.28493 0.0038
USD/CHF 0.9857 0.98635 0.98091 0.98319 -0.0028
USD/CAD 1.30791 1.3101 1.30089 1.30359 -0.0043
EUR/JPY 128.375 129.396 128.366 129.298 0.9060
GBP/JPY 142.563 143.214 142.493 142.941 0.3910
CHF/JPY 112.842 113.279 112.762 113.176 0.3560
AUD/JPY 80.614 81.67 80.567 81.508 0.8820
EUR/GBP 0.90036 0.90503 0.89999 0.90471 0.0041
EUR/CHF 1.13776 1.14273 1.13721 1.1427 0.0049
GBP/CHF 1.26289 1.26479 1.26071 1.26322 0.0001

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1453 1.1493 1.1558 1.1598 1.1663 1.1703 1.1768
USD/JPY 110.69 110.89 111.07 111.27 111.45 111.65 111.83
GBP/USD 1.2723 1.2760 1.2805 1.2842 1.2886 1.2924 1.2968
USD/CHF 0.9752 0.9780 0.9806 0.9835 0.9861 0.9889 0.9915
USD/CAD 1.2904 1.2957 1.2996 1.3049 1.3088 1.3141 1.3180
EUR/JPY 127.61 127.99 128.64 129.02 129.67 130.05 130.70
GBP/JPY 141.83 142.16 142.55 142.88 143.27 143.60 143.99
CHF/JPY 112.35 112.56 112.87 113.07 113.38 113.59 113.90
AUD/JPY 79.72 80.15 80.83 81.25 81.93 82.35 83.03
EUR/GBP 0.8964 0.8982 0.9015 0.9032 0.9065 0.9083 0.9115
EUR/CHF 1.1335 1.1354 1.1390 1.1409 1.1446 1.1464 1.1501
GBP/CHF 1.2569 1.2588 1.2610 1.2629 1.2651 1.2670 1.2692

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

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