06 7 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter


FOREX Newsletter

July 06, 2018


Pulse of the Market

·      U.S jobs rose less than expected in June reined in the greenback’s recent rally

·      The euro climbed after German industrial orders had a higher-than-expected jump in May

·      Another key Brexit meeting will take place in today’s trading session

·      The British Pound continues to find support and traded higher against the US Dollar

The U.S Dollar moved off its lows against its rivals but remained under pressure amid mixed U.S economic data and a stronger euro ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.11% to 94.09. ISM nonmanufacturing data for June showed an uptick to 59.1, beating expectations of 58.3. The services sector is a critical component of the US economy, accounting for roughly 80% of U.S. private-sector gross domestic product (GDP). A duo of reports, meanwhile, showed a mixed backdrop for the U.S. labor market as private payrolls fell short of forecasts, while initial jobless claims were in-line. Private payrolls grew by 177,000 for June, a decline from 189,000 in May, according to a report released Wednesday by ADP and Moody’s Analytics. That missed a economists’ forecast for an increase of 190,000. The U.S. Department of Labor reported yesterday that initial jobless claims for the week ended June 30 came in at a seasonally adjusted 231,000. The subdued post-holiday start for the greenback comes ahead of the minutes of Federal Reserve’s June meeting expected to reveal clues on the central bank’s monetary policy outlook. A rising euro also added pressure on the greenback amid better-than-expected German factory orders and signs that the U.S. was easing its tough stance on tariffs towards European Union carmakers. The U.S. ambassador to Germany reportedly said that President Donald Trump would suspend threats to impose tariffs on cars imported from the EU if the bloc axed duties on U.S cars. The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc were out of favor, however, despite looming U.S. and China trade tariffs expected to take effect today.
Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY) Medium   0.9% 0.8%
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (MAY) Medium   116.1 117.5
06:00 German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) Medium   1.5% 2.0%
07:30 U.K Halifax House Prices (MoM) (JUN) Low   0.2% 1.5%
08:30 U.K Unit Labor Costs (YoY) (1Q) Medium     2.1%
12:30 Canada Net Change in Employment (JUN) High   20.0k -7.5k
12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (JUN) High   5.8% 5.8%
12:30 Canada Hourly Earnings Permanent Employees (YoY) (JUN) Medium   3.7% 3.9%
12:30 U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JUN) High   195k 223k
12:30 U.S Change in Private Payrolls (JUN) Medium   190k 218k
12:30 U.S Unemployment Rate (JUN) High   3.8% 3.8%
12:30 U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) Medium   2.8% 2.7%
12:30 U.S Average Weekly Hours All Employees (JUN) Medium   34.5 34.5
12:30 U.S Trade Balance (MAY) Medium   -$43.6b -$46.2b
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (JUN) Low     62.5
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (JUL 06) Medium     1047


The single currency climbed half a per cent to near three-week highs following strong German data, though gains were capped before the release of Fed minutes later in the day. German industrial orders bounced back in May with a stronger-than-expected jump after four consecutive monthly drops, as demand from domestic customers picked up. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1648 and a high of 1.1718 before closing the day around 1.1692 in the New York session.



The Japanese Yen pair held firm supported by quarter-end buying as well as an absence of any fresh escalation in trade-related tensions between the United States and its major trading partners. Still, trade worries look set to dominate the market with traders increasingly worried about the impact of trade disputes. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.26 and a high of 110.70 before closing the day around 110.64 in the U.S session.


British Pound

The British Pound erased an earlier advance to slip as Chancellor Merkel’s government is said to see the U.K’s Brexit customs plan as unworkable. Sterling fell on the news, which may undermine May’s proposal on how customs will operate ahead of a meeting with her own cabinet. The pound had earlier climbed as BOE Governor said the U.K economy is supporting the case for higher rates. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3202 and a high of 1.3272 before closing the day at 1.3225 in the New York session.


Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher against its U.S counterpart yesterday, holding near its strongest in nearly three weeks, as the greenback broadly fell and investors’ hopes rose that European car makers could be spared from U.S. tariffs. Canada runs a current account deficit so its economy could be hurt if the flow of trade or capital slows. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3113 and a high of 1.3158 before closing the day at 1.3132 in the New York session.


Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar ambled its way through yesterday’s trading session, lifting modestly in Asia before giving back those gains in Europe. As has been the case throughout the week, it continues to be highly influenced by the gyrations in the Chinese Yuan. Conflicting reports about China’s intentions with regard to the currency have circulated in the last 36 hours, Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7359 and a high of 0.7406 before closing the day at 0.7374 in the New York session.



EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.43%.



Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.09%.



Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.20%.




This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.36%.



This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.03%.




FOREX Closing Prices for July 05, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16557 1.17188 1.16484 1.16924 0.0034
USD/JPY 110.487 110.706 110.269 110.645 0.1370
GBP/USD 1.32313 1.32728 1.32022 1.32254 -0.0007
USD/CHF 0.99234 0.99443 0.99082 0.99353 0.0005
USD/CAD 1.31403 1.31581 1.3113 1.31321 -0.0013
EUR/JPY 128.767 129.608 128.552 129.358 0.5540
GBP/JPY 146.241 146.844 145.813 146.35 0.1330
CHF/JPY 111.266 111.641 110.981 111.394 0.0780
AUD/JPY 81.541 81.9 81.242 81.752 0.1600
EUR/GBP 0.88098 0.88558 0.88051 0.88441 0.0032
EUR/CHF 1.15662 1.16173 1.15654 1.16148 0.0040
GBP/CHF 1.31359 1.31671 1.31072 1.31353 -0.0003




Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1584 1.1616 1.1654 1.1687 1.1725 1.1757 1.1795
USD/JPY 109.94 110.10 110.37 110.54 110.81 110.98 111.25
GBP/USD 1.3124 1.3163 1.3194 1.3233 1.3265 1.3304 1.3335
USD/CHF 0.9878 0.9893 0.9914 0.9929 0.9950 0.9965 0.9986
USD/CAD 1.3066 1.3089 1.3111 1.3134 1.3156 1.3180 1.3201
EUR/JPY 127.68 128.12 128.74 129.17 129.79 130.23 130.85
GBP/JPY 144.80 145.30 145.83 146.34 146.86 147.37 147.89
CHF/JPY 110.38 110.68 111.04 111.34 111.70 112.00 112.36
AUD/JPY 80.70 80.97 81.36 81.63 82.02 82.29 82.68
EUR/GBP 0.8764 0.8784 0.8814 0.8835 0.8865 0.8886 0.8916
EUR/CHF 1.1529 1.1547 1.1581 1.1599 1.1633 1.1651 1.1685
GBP/CHF 1.3046 1.3077 1.3106 1.3137 1.3166 1.3196 1.3226

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)




This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.



 證券 CFD 亞洲                2018-07-06



就類股表現來看,全部33類股中、有27類股上揚,其中以醫藥品類股漲幅最大,其次為電氣機器、批發業和玻璃土石製品。夏普跌0.59%,收2,356日元,連續第5個交易日走跌,夏普於6月29日宣布撤回增資後、當天飆漲15%,不過該漲幅已幾乎快全數吐光。信評公司標準普爾日前以夏普撤回增資計畫為由,調降夏普展望。任天堂跌0.09%。 Switch日本銷售量連7週增長、累銷突破450萬台,不過市場謹慎看待任天堂上季業績表現,憂心營益恐陷入萎縮。蘋果液晶面板(LCD)供應商飆漲5.51%。








產品 開盤價 最高價 最低價 收盤價
HS_ 28198 28489 27818 28216










從4小時圖上看,歐元/美元日內上漲。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱縮減,快線與慢線趨勢向上,RSI指標上行至63。後市來看,價位有可能持續上漲,匯價阻力目標指向 1.17400一線。下行方面,匯價初步支撐考驗1.16800一線。






證券 CFD 歐美                   2018-07-06


產品 開盤價 最高價 最低價 收盤價
DJ_ 24196 24360 24113 24339
SP_ 2721.75 2739.25 2712.50 2738.50
ND_ 7042.75 7126.50 7016.75 7125.25
FT_ 7517.5 7564.0 7510.0 7561.0
美國股市週四(7月5日)收高,但投資者仍處於緊張狀態,因美國準備對從中國進口的商品加徵關稅。道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲181.92點,至24,356.74點,英特爾和Walgreens Boots Alliance表現優於其他公司。標準普爾500指數上漲0.9%,收於2736.61點,科技股攀升1.5%。納斯達克綜合指數上漲1.1%,至7586.43點,Facebook、亞馬遜、Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet均出現上漲。最近,由於投資者擔心關稅對企業利潤和更廣泛的全球經濟的影響,貿易緊張局勢一直在抑制股市上漲。報導稱,美國駐德國大使告訴業內高管,美國總統特朗普可能會推遲對歐洲汽車實施關稅,以換取讓步,這讓圍繞貿易的情緒略有提升。通用汽車股價上漲了2.6%,收盤上漲1.3%。菲亞特克萊斯勒也上漲了6個百分點。

英國股市5日報收於7603.22點,比前一交易日上漲30.13點,漲幅為0.40%。個股方面,當天倫敦股市成分股中資源類個股領漲,位於漲幅前五位的個股分別為:礦業公司耶弗拉茲集團股價上漲2.98%,英美資源股價上漲2.82%,國際設備租賃商Ashtead集團股價上漲2.11%,嘉能可股價上漲2.08%,在線餐飲外賣公司JUST EAT股價上漲1.82%。當天倫敦股市成分股中房地產類個股領跌,位於跌幅前五位的個股分別為:英國聯合食品集團股價下跌4.16%,住宅開發商伯克利控股集團股價下跌2.17%,商用物業公司土地證券集團股價下跌1.80%,在線零售商Ocado集團股價下跌1.63%,房地產商泰勒溫佩公司股價下跌1.41%。








從ND_日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至7126.50一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱緊縮, RSI指標位於平衡區50。後市來看,價格將區間震盪,價格阻力目標指向7200.00一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向6900.00一線。





商品 CFD 日報                    2018-7-6

美元指數週四(7月5日) 震盪,備受關注的美聯儲會議紀要如期揭開面紗。美聯儲會議紀要顯示,美聯儲官員擔心,如果不加控制,讓美國經濟運行過於強勁,可能會導致重大問題。週四發佈的會議紀要稱,一些成員表示“擔心經濟長期運行超出潛能可能會導致通脹壓力加劇或金融失衡,最終可能導致嚴重的經濟衰退。”美聯儲官員也表達了對海外形勢的擔憂。整體而言美聯儲漸進加息的預期並未改變,年內也很有可能會完成兩次加息,但貿易風險的存在令不確定性有所上升,未來還需繼續關注經濟數據的表現,例如明日即將公佈的非農報告。目前市場普遍預期6月非農就業人數將增加20萬,將略低於前值,失業率則將維持在3.8%低位,不過多數分析師認為失業率有望在近期進一步跌至1960年代以來最低的3.5%。


原油市場週四小幅下跌,報73.14美元/桶,因美國原油庫存意外增長,但庫欣庫存繼續大降以及美國產量連續三周維持不變,同時美元走弱也為油價帶來部分支撐。美國能源資訊署(EIA)最新報告顯示,截至6月29日當周,美國原油庫存意外增長124.5萬桶,市場預期為減少逾500萬桶,而週二美國石油學會(API)公佈的降幅達到450萬桶。儘管如此,美國原油主要交割地庫欣地區原油庫存減少211.3萬桶,連續7周錄得下滑且降至2014年2月以來最低水準。不過能源諮詢機構Energy Aspects表示,庫欣原油庫存嚴重短缺造成了額外問題,如果無法及時補充,我們將在7月份看到油罐底部。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)大豆期貨週四再度走跌,所有交投活躍的合約均創新低,因交易商緊張地等待著中國從週五開始實施進口關稅。中國是世界最大的油籽進口國。交易商稱,市場昔遍預計美國和中國將從週五淩晨開始相互徵收關稅,打壓了大豆產品價格,扶助拖累玉米價格下跌。民間分析公司Informa Economics亦上調其對美國玉米和大豆產量的單產預估,亦令價格承壓。




















歐元方面,歐元/美元週四上漲,最高至1.17188。一些歐銀委員們表示,至明年年末才作出加息的時間過晚,據可靠消息指出,歐洲央行貨幣政策制定者們對投資者押注歐洲央行直到2019年12月才會上調利率的預期感到不安。歐洲央行首席經濟學家Peter Praet週四著重強調的話語,暗示其對歐元區通脹攀升和通縮風險的消失保持信心。與此同時,德國5月份工業訂單數據月率上揚2.6%,年率上揚4.4%,均好於此前預期,這對歐元區一大支柱經濟體的未來經濟形勢增加了信心。


從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜上漲。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,快線及慢線位於零軸下方, RSI指標位於平衡區50上方。後市看來價位將上漲,價格阻力初步考驗1.17600一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位1.16300一線。



從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜上漲。技術指標上, MACD快線及慢線位於零軸上方, RSI指標位於平衡區50上方。後市看來價位將區間震盪,價格支撐目標考驗110.000一線。上行方面,價格關鍵阻力位111.000一線。