商品 CFD 日報                    2018-06-28

 
市場綜述
週三(6月27日)美元指數走高,因美總統特朗普27日發表聲明說,他支持通過落實目前美國國會審議的《外國投資風險評估現代化法》來限制外國實體收購美國關鍵技術。這意味著美政府暫時不會單獨出台限制外國投資的額外行政措施。消息傳來之後,市場風險情緒急劇抬頭,美股高開高走,不過,白宮經濟顧問庫德洛隨後表示,政府對中國的修訂方針不應被描述為“撤退”。美股隨即回吐部分漲幅,美元指數則延續漲勢刷新日高至95.43。

現貨黃金週三持續下跌至日內低位,美市盤中最低下探至 1250.60 美元/金衡盎司,因美元指數已站上95關口,繼續施壓黃金。數據方面,日內公佈的美國5月成屋簽約銷售指數月率為下跌0.5%,高於前值但低於預期,美國5月耐用品訂單月率為下跌0.6%,也高於前值及預期,這是自2016年6月以來,美國耐用品訂單連續兩個月出現下跌。有分析師指出,儘管全球貿易緊張,早些時候的美聯儲加息,以及歐元區實際利率為負值等因素都應該有助於黃金,但黃金不漲反跌,讓人懷疑黃金是否失去了避險的吸引力。

國際原油週三收漲2.23美元,報72.24美元/桶。因數據報告全面利好,美國原油庫存減少989.1萬桶至4.166億桶,連續3週錄得下滑,且創2016年9月9日當週(94週)以來最大降幅,市場預估為減少257.2萬桶。美國精煉油庫存增加1.5萬桶,市場預估為增加77.4萬桶。美國汽油庫存增加115.6萬桶,市場預估為增加131.3萬桶。這令原油多頭信心大受提振,儘管石油輸出國組織(OPEC)已經明確將逐步增產,但伊朗和利比亞原油供應下降料將抵消這一利空。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)大豆期貨週三基本持平,雖在盤中上漲,但尾盤漲幅消失殆盡,儘管白宮宣布的對中國收購美國敏感技術的態度有所軟化。CBOT 8月大豆期貨合約持平於每蒲式耳8.73美元。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)玉米期貨週三漲跌互現,盤中走勢反覆,在美國農業部關鍵的兩份作物報告發布前,交易商糾結於不同的信號。CBOT 9月玉米合約收高1/2美分,報每蒲式耳3.61-3/4美元。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)小麥期貨週三收高,因三日連跌令9月合約挫至一周低位後,投資者逢低吸納。CBOT 9月軟紅冬麥期貨收高5-1/2美分,報每蒲式耳4.88-1/2美元。

COMEX期銅週三下跌,報收於297.40美分/磅。受美元上漲的影響,加之投資者擔心中美兩國貿易爭端愈演愈烈。此外,投資者還將密切關注本週末中國將公佈的製造業採購經理人指數(PMI),從中觀察面對增長的貿易問題憂慮中國經濟是否依然具有韌性。

技術分析
XAUUSD

日線圖顯示,金價隔夜下跌,最低探至1250.60。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標於超賣區23。後市來看,上行方面,金價初步阻力考驗1260.00一帶。下行方面,金價目標支撐考驗1245.00一帶。

 

XAGUSD

日線圖顯示,銀價隔夜大幅下跌,最低探至15.933。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標下行至36。後市來看,上行方面,銀價初步阻力考驗16.200一帶,下行方面,銀價目標支撐考驗15.900一帶。

 

 CL_

日線圖顯示,油價隔夜上漲,最高探至73.02。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向上,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,上行方面,油價初步阻力考驗73.50一帶,下行方面,油價目標支撐考驗71.50一帶。

 

 HG_

日線圖顯示,銅價隔夜收跌,最低探至295.95。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標下行至33。後市來看,上行方面,銅價初步阻力考驗301.00一帶,下行方面,銅價目標支撐考驗294.00一帶。

 

 

 

 

 

                           2018-06-28

   
市場綜述
週三(6月27日)美國總統特朗普針對中國的投資限制,其立場有所軟化,因此美元震盪走高。而日內公佈的數據顯示,美國5月扣除運輸的耐用品訂單月率初值意外下降0.3%,低於預期增長0.5%,不過4月數據由0.9%向上修正為年內最高1.9%,表明需求具有彈性。與此同時,美國5月貿易帳赤字由673億美元縮窄至648億美元。不過美國5月關鍵的資本商品等數據卻意外下滑,但前月數據有所上修,表明美國第二季度企業設備開支溫和增長。數據公佈後,美元指數刷新日高至95.05。

加元方面,加拿大央行行長波洛茲在週三表示,在一個更加不確定的世界裡,金融市場為經濟提供了重要信號,而這些不確定性包括美國鋼鐵關稅和更嚴格的抵押貸款資格等近期動態,稱經濟表現將為升息提供理據,並確保將漸進升息,此番話使得美元/加元短線暴拉100點,刷新日高至1.33839。

英鎊方面,因英國央行官員對英國準備加息以及退歐對經濟影響的不確定性表達謹慎立場之後,英國央行總裁卡尼在週三表示,英國的銀行對無序退歐的局面有充分的準備,但對央行是否會在下一次在8月政策會議上加息則三緘其口,這一鴿派言論引發英鎊跳水,英鎊/美元擴大跌幅,下挫至一週低點1.31061。

 

技術分析
EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜收出陰線。技術指標上,EMA(9,15,30)呈空頭排列,MACD快線及慢線位於零軸下方,並交疊在一起,RSI指標位於平衡區38。後市看來,價格阻力初步考驗1.16000一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位1.15000一線。

 

USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜收出陽線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,快線及慢線位於零軸上方,並呈下行趨勢,RSI指標位於平衡區55。後市看來,價格阻力目標依舊考驗110.700一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位109.800一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜收出陰線。技術指標上,EMA(9,15,30)呈空頭排列,MACD快線及慢線位於零軸下方,RSI指標位於弱勢區30。後市看來,價格阻力目標依舊考驗1.31700一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位1.30400一線。

 

 

27 6 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

  FOREX Newsletter

  June 27, 2018

  Pulse of the Market

·      Markets regained composure after remarks by White House trade adviser Peter Navarro

·      The Treasury Department is due to announce restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S by Friday

·      Incoming BOE policymaker Jonathan Haskel said that there may be slacker in the UK economy

·      Trade tensions and NAFTA tape bombs are the fastest growing risks , leaving the loonie sensitive

The U.S Dollar rose to the day’s highs against a currency basket yesterday as market sentiment recovered a day after mounting trade tensions sparked a selloff in risky assets. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.32% to 94.25 after ending the previous session down 0.24%. The greenback had been pressured lower as long-term U.S. Treasury yields slid amid heightened risk aversion in financial markets. Markets regained composure after remarks by White House trade adviser Peter Navarro Monday helped ease some investor concerns about U.S. trade policy. Navarro indicated that plans to bar Chinese companies from investing in U.S. technology firms won’t be as damaging to the economy as markets are anticipating. The Treasury Department is due to announce restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S by Friday. Such a move would counter a Chinese initiative to be a global leader in technology and mark another escalation in the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, following the threat of tit-for-tat tariffs. Besides the trade dispute with China, U.S. President Donald Trump has ratcheted up trade tensions with the European Union by threatening tariffs on cars imported from the bloc. The dollar was still a touch lower against the yen, with USD/JPY last at 109.72, having fallen to a two-week low of 109.36 on Monday. The safe haven yen is often sought by investors in times of geopolitical tensions and market turmoil. The euro fell to the day’s lows, with EUR/USD down 0.38% to 1.1658 after edging up to a two-week high. Sterling was also lower against the firmer dollar, with GBP/USD sliding 0.35%. The pound came under pressure after incoming Bank of England policymaker Jonathan Haskel said that there may be slacker in the UK economy, which would weaken the case for interest rate hikes. He added that the central bank has scope to cut rates slightly lower in case of an economic downturn. The Canadian Dollar is on the verge of another leg down that could see it reach fresh multi-year lows against the US Dollar in the weeks ahead.

 

  
Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:00 New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook (JUN) Medium     13.6
08:30 BOE’s Carney Speaks About Financial Stability Report High      
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 22) Medium     5.1%
12:30 U.S Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (MAY) Medium   0.2% 0.1%
12:30 U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance (MAY) High   -$69.0b -$68.2b
12:30 U.S Durable Goods Orders (MAY) High   -0.9% -1.6%
12:30 U.S Durables Ex Transportation (MAY) Medium   0.5% 0.9%
14:00 U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) (MAY) Medium     0.4%
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUN 22) Medium     -5914k
16:15 U.S Fed’s Rosengren Speaks on Ethics and Economics Low      
19:00 Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz Gives Speech in Victoria High      
21:00 RBNZ Official Cash Rate (JUN 28) High   1.75% 1.75%

 

Euro

The single currency ended yesterday’s trading session lower. EU summit that was supposed to be dominated by unity on a common problem has instead turned into discord. As of a month ago, this week’s gathering of EU heads of government in Brussels was set to focus on Brexit. The UK was expected to finally present its plans for the future relationship. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1633 and a high of 1.1719 before closing the day around 1.1646 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair built on its intraday recovery from two-week lows and is now looking to build on its momentum back above the key 110.00 psychological mark. Against the backdrop of a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand, a positive opening across the US equity markets weighed on the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven appeal. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 109.35 and a high of 110.19 before closing the day around 110.01 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell after comments by John Haskel, an incoming member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. Haskel was a relatively unknown voice until now, and his dovish commentary and the concerns he voiced for the possible impact on the British economy after the Brexit resulted in a swift sell off for the Pound. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3190 and a high of 1.3290 before closing the day at 1.3221 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar continues to have a quiet week. Yesterday North American session, USD/CAD is traded up 0.19% on the day. On the release front, there were no Canadian events until Thursday, so U.S indicators will have an added impact on the movement of USD/CAD. The Bank of Canada has dropped hints that it is ready to raise rates in the second half of 2018. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3278 and a high of 1.3327 before closing the day at 1.3304 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continued to struggle through yesterday as a lack of any meaningful data for release to start of the week hindered any chance of movements higher. The Aussie dollar was dragged down once again by ongoing trade tensions and a drop-in equity prices. Aussie was one of the worst performing currencies of the day. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7378 and a high of 0.7421 before closing the day at 0.7388 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.18%.

  

Aussie-Yen

 

 

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.08%.

 

 Euro-Sterling

 

 

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

 Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for June 26, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.17018 1.1719 1.16335 1.16461 -0.0059
USD/JPY 109.751 110.197 109.35 110.016 0.2420
GBP/USD 1.32777 1.32901 1.31906 1.32211 -0.0060
USD/CHF 0.98675 0.99213 0.98565 0.99047 0.0034
USD/CAD 1.32925 1.3327 1.32785 1.33048 0.0006
EUR/JPY 128.46 128.481 127.777 128.158 -0.3550
GBP/JPY 145.752 145.778 144.948 145.503 -0.2690
CHF/JPY 111.182 111.231 110.74 111.018 -0.2230
AUD/JPY 81.339 81.425 80.935 81.337 -0.0650
EUR/GBP 0.88103 0.88207 0.87965 0.88073 -0.0006
EUR/CHF 1.15515 1.15626 1.15226 1.15365 -0.0017
GBP/CHF 1.31045 1.31266 1.30648 1.31014 -0.0008

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1528 1.1581 1.1613 1.1666 1.1699 1.1752 1.1784
USD/JPY 108.66 109.01 109.51 109.85 110.36 110.70 111.21
GBP/USD 1.3078 1.3134 1.3178 1.3234 1.3277 1.3333 1.3377
USD/CHF 0.9802 0.9829 0.9867 0.9894 0.9932 0.9959 0.9997
USD/CAD 1.3231 1.3255 1.3280 1.3303 1.3328 1.3352 1.3377
EUR/JPY 127.09 127.43 127.80 128.14 128.50 128.84 129.20
GBP/JPY 144.21 144.58 145.04 145.41 145.87 146.24 146.70
CHF/JPY 110.27 110.51 110.76 111.00 111.25 111.49 111.74
AUD/JPY 80.55 80.74 81.04 81.23 81.53 81.72 82.02
EUR/GBP 0.8771 0.8784 0.8796 0.8808 0.8820 0.8832 0.8844
EUR/CHF 1.1479 1.1501 1.1519 1.1541 1.1559 1.1581 1.1599
GBP/CHF 1.3007 1.3036 1.3069 1.3098 1.3130 1.3159 1.3192

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

證券 CFD 亞洲                2018-06-27

 

 
市場綜述
日本股市週三(6月27日)收低,此前油價上漲損及橡膠產品製造商、航空公司和船運商,與此同時多家公司將進行除息,加重了大盤的疲勢。不過日股脫離早前觸及的低點,交易員懷疑這與日本央行買入上市交易基金(ETF)有關。截至收盤,日經225指數收低0.3%至22,271.77點。東證股價指數微幅收高0.02%,報1,731.45點。

週三除息的日經指數成份股有日本煙草(JT) 、佳能、普利司通,股價分別下挫3.9%、3.0%及3.0%。投資人仍對美國與其交易夥伴的貿易緊張局勢保持警惕,這在過去一周令市場受到打壓。出光興產和昭和殼牌石油逆市上揚,此前日本經濟新聞報導稱,出光興產的創始家族同意了與昭和殼牌石油合併的計畫。

港股方面,美國禁止各國進口伊朗石油,再加上原油庫存減少,原油期貨價格飆升。人民幣兌美元匯率連日大跌,離岸人民幣(CNH)昨跌逾500點子,跌穿6.59,逼近6.6關,連跌9天。今日早盤,恒指高開低走,盤中轉跌,午後恒指跌幅進一步擴大,不僅跌超1%,更是接近跌2%。截至收盤,恒指跌1.82%,報28356.26點;國企指數跌2.16%,報10879.17點;紅籌指數漲1.99%,報4251.18點。大市成交1212.97億港元。

個股方面,地產股繼續下挫行情,其中,中國恒大跌7.43%,融創跌8.66%,萬科企業跌5.23%,碧桂園跌7.41%。昨日有市場傳聞稱,國開行總行棚改專案合同簽訂審批權回收總行,過去執行的貨幣化拆遷安置方式,將改為實物安置為主。簡單的說,政策會大幅度收緊,只有總行有權利批錢,流入房地產的國開行資金會大幅減少。科網股集體走低,華虹半導體跌10.76%,中芯國際跌9.22%,比亞迪電子跌7.85%,瑞聲科技跌7.31%。

技術分析
NK_

觀察SGX日本225股指期貨CFD4H圖,日內價格回落走低,回吐前一交易日升幅。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱微增,RSI指標向下。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力目標22500一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐考驗22000一線。

 

HS_

產品 開盤價 最高價 最低價 收盤價
HS_ 28995 29043 28272 28371

觀察香港50股指期貨CFD日線圖,價格日內再創新低,最低探至28272一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下延伸。後市來看,價格初步阻力指向29000關口。下行方面,價格支撐目標考驗28100一線。

 

                        2018-06-27

 

 
市場綜述
週三(6月27日)亞市盤中,美元指數震盪走低,最低至94.52。分析師指出,美國眾議院週二以壓倒性優勢通過一項收緊外國投資規定的議案,兩黨議員對中國收購美國先進技術的擔憂推動了這項議案,讓貿易戰的情緒再度升溫。美盤時段,投資者還需關注美國耐用品訂單以及成屋簽約銷售數據。

英鎊方面,英鎊/美元週三亞市盤中震盪交投於1.32整數關上方附近,最低至1.32005。分析師指出,美元指數的下跌並沒有讓英鎊/美元上漲,在英國央行行長卡尼講話之前,英鎊整體仍然傾向承壓。週三北京時間16:30,英國央行行長卡尼將就金融穩定報告發表講話。投資者需關注英國央行行長看你的講話,英國央行將於北京時間16:30公佈最新的金融穩定性報告。

歐元方面,歐元/美元週三亞市盤中震盪,最低至1.16383。隨著歐盟峰會將於週四召開,有關歐盟內部在移民等問題上的分歧能否得到妥善處置將受到關注,因談判結果可能會影響到日後歐元區的穩定性。分析師表示,本週四至週五的歐盟峰會可能是本週最重要的事情,因為歐盟領導人將開會討論許多有爭議的問題,如移民、貿易戰、英國脫歐以及歐盟的長期預算。數據方面,週五將是個“大通脹日”,因歐元區和美國核心物價指數都會公佈。預計歐元區核心通脹率不會出現任何加速,而美國的通脹率仍將接近目標水平。

技術分析
EURUSD

從4小時圖上看,歐元/美元日內震盪。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於平衡區50下方。後市來看,價位短期將持續震盪,匯價支撐目標指向 1.15800一線。上行方面,匯價初步阻力考驗1.17000一線。

 

USDJPY

從4小時圖上看,美元/日元日內震盪走低。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱緊縮,RSI指標位於平衡區50下方。後市來看,價位將上漲,匯價阻力位考驗110.500。下行方面,匯價支撐看向109.200一線。

 

 

 證券 CFD 歐美                   2018-06-27

 

產品 開盤價 最高價 最低價 收盤價
DJ_ 24268 24372 24215 24300
SP_ 2721.50 2735.00 2714.75 2728.50
ND_ 7066.50 7129.50 7040.00 7104.00
FT_ 7460.0 7516.5 7447.0 7501.0
市場綜述
美國股市週二收盤小幅走高,因能源股從上一交易日的大幅下跌中反彈,但特朗普政府關於貿易的喜憂參半的信息抑制了股市上漲。道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲30.31點,收於24283.11點,蘋果和雪佛龍均上漲1.2%。標普500指數上漲0.2%,收於2723.06點。納斯達克綜合指數上漲0.4%,至7561.63點。

個股方面,能源股在標普500指數各類股中漲幅最大,上揚1.4%,因美國政府敦促盟國暫停從伊朗進口原油,油價應聲大漲逾2%。科技股走高,蘋果結束三連跌,收漲1.2%。 FANG股票有三家上漲,推升標普500指數。臉書漲1.4%,亞馬遜漲1.7%,Netflix漲3.9%,僅字母收跌0.6%。

英國股市週二報收於7537.92點,比前一交易日上漲28.08點,漲幅為0.37%。歐洲三大股指當天漲跌不一,其他兩大主要股指方面,法國巴黎股市指數報收於5281.29點,跌幅為0.05%;德國法蘭克福股市指數報收於12234.34點,跌幅為0.29%。

個股方面,當天倫敦股市成分股中資源類個股領漲,位於漲幅前五位的個股分別為:郵輪公司嘉年華公司股價上漲3.13%,必和必拓股價上漲2.51%,服裝零售商Next股價上漲2.42%,包裝企業戴維·所羅門·史密斯公司股價上漲2.23%,倫敦證交所集團股價上漲2.11%。而成分股中消費類個股則領跌,位於跌幅前五位的個股分別為:國際聯合航空集團股價下跌3.53%,餐飲服務公司金巴斯集團股價下跌2.26%,軟件和信息服務商微聚國際股價下跌2.24%,森寶利超市集團股價下跌2.21%,餐飲及酒店集團惠特布雷德股價下跌1.69%。

技術分析
DJ_

從DJ_日線圖上看,價格隔夜震盪收漲,最高探至24372一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標上行。後市來看,價格初步阻力目標指向24550一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向24050一線。

 

SP_

從SP_日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至2735.00一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標上行至45。後市來看,價格初步阻力目標指向2750.00一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向2710.00一線。

 

 ND_

從ND_日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至7129.50一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標上行至49。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向7170.00一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向7030.00一線。

 

 FT_

從FT_日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至7516.5一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標上行至43。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向7580.0一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向7430.0一線。

 

                     商品 CFD 日報                    2018-06-27

 
市場綜述
週二(6月26日)儘管美國與盟國的貿易紛爭持續發酵,但美元指數仍終止跌勢反彈走強,報收於94.69。因全球貿易緊張局勢持續,促使交易員拋棄大多數高收益率貨幣,投資者聚焦美國聯邦儲備理事會(FED/美聯儲)繼續升息預期。

現貨黃金週二持續下挫,跌破1260.00關口,並處於6個月的低位,美市盤中最低下探至 1254.50 美元/金衡盎司。儘管世界貿易大戰即將來臨,但市場並未看到強烈的避險情緒,至少不足以提振避險金屬。相反,如果美國和世界其他主要經濟體之間爆發全面的貿易戰,黃金和白銀的原材料商品價格走低,因為擔心原料商品的世界貿易減少。數據方面,日內公佈的4月S&P/CS房價指數年率為6.56%,不如前值的6.79%,增幅創2011年來新低,多數大城市的房價增幅仍明顯超過民眾收入增長;美國6月諮商會消費者信心指數為126.4,也低於前值的128。

國際原油週二收漲2.45美元,報70.75美元/桶。因利比亞國家石油公司的重要出口終端再次被武裝組織控制,這令該國出口水平存在較大的不確定性。加上加拿大最大的油砂設施出現生產問題,這幫助油價帶來強勁支撐。此外,日內美國國務院命令各公司將從伊朗進口的所有進口產品從11月起降至零,也使油價受到提振大幅上漲。據外媒報導,美國國務院官員表示,要求同盟國在11月4日之前將從伊朗進口原油的​​數量降至零。如果在11月4日之後依舊購買伊朗的原油,企業將面臨二級制裁。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)大豆期貨週二下跌,交易商表示,因美國作物評級良好,提振收成前景,加上擔憂美中貿易緊張關係。CBOT 8月大豆期貨合約收低7美分,報每蒲式耳8.73美元。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)玉米期貨週二收高,交易商解釋稱,因市場在震盪交投後出現低吸買盤,交易商在本週晚些時候關鍵的美國農業部(USDA)種植面積和庫存報告出爐前調整頭寸。CBOT 9月玉米合約收高1-3/4美分,結算價報每蒲式耳3.61-1/4美元。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)小麥期貨週二觸及兩個月低位,因基金驅動多頭結清頭寸,以及南部大平原收割帶來的壓力。CBOT 9月軟紅冬麥期貨收跌7-1/2美分,結算價報每蒲式耳4.83美元。

COMEX期銅週二收漲,報收於299.25美分/磅。因貿易緊張局勢升級再次打壓基本金屬市場,而市場的進一步壓力來自美元強勁,限制了銅價漲幅。

技術分析
XAUUSD

日線圖顯示,金價隔夜下跌,最低探至1254.50。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標於超賣區。後市來看,上行方面,金價初步阻力考驗1264.00一帶。下行方面,金價目標支撐考驗1248.00一帶。

 

 XAGUSD

日線圖顯示,銀價隔夜震盪收跌,最低探至16.123。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標下行至42。後市來看,上行方面,銀價初步阻力考驗16.400一帶,下行方面,銀價目標支撐考驗16.100一帶。

 

  CL_

日線圖顯示,油價隔夜大幅上漲,最高探至70.87。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向上,RSI指標上行至64。後市來看,上行方面,油價初步阻力考驗72.00一帶,下行方面,油價目標支撐考驗69.50一帶。

  

HG_

日線圖顯示,銅價隔夜收漲,最高探至299.70。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標上行。後市來看,上行方面,銅價初步阻力考驗304.00一帶,下行方面,銅價目標支撐考驗297.00一帶。

 

 

 

 

 

                           2018-06-27

   
市場綜述
週二(6月26日)在爆出將對中國投資設限後,白宮貿易顧問納瓦羅表示,限制中國公司投資美國公司的計劃不會像市場預期的那樣損害美國經濟,美元因此受到些許提振,最高升至94.67。

歐元方面,盤初歐元/美元測試了1.17200一帶,不過美國日內公佈的數據總體上表現積極,標普S&P/CS20座大城市房價指數是衡量美國房價的主要指標,略低於預期的6.8%,但仍顯示出上升趨勢。里奇蒙聯儲製造業指數6月升至20,5月為16,在三個分項指數中,發貨量、新訂單和就業均有所增加。美元從可靠的本地數據中獲得了一些動力,因此歐元/美元隨後回落至1.16400水平附近。而周三將公佈一些更有趣的數據,其中包括美國耐用品訂單。

英鎊方面,有消息稱,英國央行貨幣政策委員會委員麥卡弗蒂將被不那麼鷹派的哈克爾取代,而哈克爾教授被任命為英國央行的外部成員,任期三年9月開始,雖然他支持當前央行的路徑,但他表示,“當前階段,我只會說,鑑於目前的條件和當前的經濟數據,我同意大方向上的路徑,”市場急於消化新官員的不那麼激進的姿態。他還在議員面前提到了英國退歐,稱這可能會導致“經濟暫時停滯”。此番話推動英鎊/美元跌至日低1.31911,並收於1.32213。

 

技術分析
EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜收出陰線。技術指標上,EMA(9,15,30)呈空頭排列,MACD快線及慢線位於零軸下方,並呈上行趨勢,RSI指標位於平衡區44。後市看來,價格阻力初步考驗1.17000一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位1.16000一線。

 

USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜收出陽線。技術指標上,MACD快線及慢線位於零軸上方,並呈下行趨勢,RSI指標位於平衡區52。後市看來,價格阻力目標依舊考驗110.500一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位109.500一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜收出陰線。技術指標上,EMA(9,15,30)呈空頭排列,MACD快線及慢線位於零軸下方,RSI指標位於弱勢區36。後市看來,價格阻力目標依舊考驗1.32800一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位1.31500一線。

 

 

26 6 月 2018

Daily  Market View

    Daily Market View

  Tuesday, June 26, 2018

 

          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24281 2722.25 7073.00
-1.33% -1.37% -2.09%

U.S stocks plummeted yesterday, with major indexes seeing their biggest one-day drop in months and the Dow set to close below a closely watched level as fresh threats from President Donald Trump against the U.S.’s trading partners undercut investor sentiment. The day’s losses were widespread, with 26 of the Dow’s 30 components trading lower, along with nine of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors. Tech was the biggest decliner of the day, however, dropping 3% in its biggest one-day decline since March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 420 points, or 1.7%. The blue-chip average was on track for its biggest one-day drop since April 6, and the day’s decline put it on track to at its lowest level since May 3. The Dow is also set to end below its 200-day moving average for the first time in about two years. The moving average is a closely watched gauge of an asset’s long-term momentum trends, and while the Dow has dipped below it on an intraday basis two other times in 2018, it rebounded above it both times. Finishing below it could be a sign that more selling is in store.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

may

U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase 08:30 38250 38049

jun

U.K CBI Reported Sales 10:00 11 11

 

ECB Vice President De Guindos Speaks in Frankfurt 12:00

apr

S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM) SA 13:00 0.4% 0.53%

apr

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) 13:00 6.8% 6.79%

apr

S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) 13:00 6.53%

jun

U.S Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 14:00 15 16

jun

U.S Consumer Confidence Index 14:00 128 128

jun

U.S Conf. Board Present Situation 14:00 161.7
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.33% to hit a new 1-month low yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walmart Inc., which rose 1.95% or 1.65 points to trade at 86.47 at the close. Meanwhile, American Express Company added 1.35% or 1.31 points to end at 98.54 and Coca-Cola Company was up 0.76% or 0.33 points to 43.58 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 3.41% or 1.79 points to trade at 50.71 at the close. Visa Inc. declined 3.25% or 4.40 points to end at 130.93 and McDonald’s Corporation was down 2.88% or 4.74 points to 159.81.

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index lost 2.09% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Xenetic Biosciences Inc. which rose 103.90% to 5.750, Ability Inc. which was up 98.41% to settle at 10.00 and Innovate Biopharmaceuticals Inc. which gained 39.48% to close at 18.76. The worst performers were Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 43.83% to 5.140 in late trade, Sophiris Bio Inc. which lost 40.27% to settle at 2.240 and Erytech Pharma SA ADR which was down 28.97% to 12.75 at the close.

Oil

Oil fell yesterday as investors prepared for an extra 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil to hit the markets after OPEC agreed to raise production and as U.S equity markets slipped on trade war fears. U.S. light crude retreated after an early rise to trade down 41 cents to $68.17 a barrel. Losses in U.S. crude prices were limited by the likelihood that an outage at Syncrude Canada’s 360,000 barrel per day oil sands facility would last through July. The outage is expected to limit crude arriving at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point of the U.S. futures contract.  This helped further shrink U.S. crude’s discount to global benchmark Brent to as small as $4.78. The spread had widened to as much as $11.57 on June 1, but had been contracting ahead of OPEC’s expected supply increase, analysts said. The slide on Wall Street pressured oil, analysts said. All three major stock indexes were down on escalating U.S.-China trade tensions.

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hovered near last week’s six-month low yesterday as investors flocked to U.S Treasuries rather than bullion, amid concerns over a global trade war ratcheting higher after a report said the United States plans to bar Chinese companies from investing in its technology firms. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,266.29 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled down $1.80, or 0.1 percent, at $1,268.90 per ounce. The U.S. Treasury Department is crafting rules that would block firms with at least 25 percent Chinese ownership from buying U.S. companies involved in “industrially significant technology,” The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. Gold, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty, has failed to benefit as investors poured into U.S. Treasury debt. Right now, the flight-to-quality money is going into the bonds. Commodities on a whole are being pulled back with the threat of tariffs. The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened to its lowest level in over 10 years as concerns about trade wars and divisions within the euro zone boosted demand for longer-dated, safe-haven debt. Higher U.S. bond yields make gold a less attractive investment since it does not bear interest. But some analysts say the standoff between the world’s two largest economies, which threatens to limit global economic growth, could eventually benefit gold. Today on a relative basis, gold is performing better than commodities and equities. Global shares fell on escalating trade tensions and the dollar index turned softer against a basket of currencies. The fundamental dynamics suggest gold will remain under pressure until there is a discernible reversal in dollar sentiment. We are seeing some support lining up at the $1,265 level, with upward momentum capped at the $1,278 area. Meanwhile, silver fell 0.8 percent at $16.31 an ounce. Copper prices fell to the lowest close in almost three months as tension between the U.S. and China continued to unsettle investors.

 

 

Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

Wheat slid 2 percent yesterday as rain expected in parched growing belts in Australia tempered concerns about global supply risks and shifted attention to broader worries about trade tensions.

 

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, June 25, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24595 24612 24075 24281 -326
S & P 500 SPM18 2756.75 2757.75 2700.5 2722.25 -37.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7222 7222.25 6995.25 7073 -151
Hang Seng HSH18 29410 29447 28860 28958 -388
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22475 22520 22260 22325 -145
FTSE 100 FTH18 7576 7599.5 7420 7432 -172
Gold GCJ18 1272.2 1273.2 1265.6 1267.5 -3.5
Silver SIK18 1640.5 1643 1627.5 1634 -14
Copper HGK18 303.55 304.45 296.8 298.85 -4.3
Crude Oil CLK18 68.62 69.4 67.75 68.28 -0.37
Wheat WK18 486.75 487.75 473.25 477.5 -14
Soybeans SK18 894.5 896 871.25 875 -20
Corn CK18 357.75 358.5 349.25 351.25 -6.75

 

 

 

 

                                              Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

 

DJM18 23496 23786 24033 24323 24570 24860 25107
SPM18 2638.67 2669.58 2695.92 2726.83 2753.17 2784.08 2810.42
NDM18 6744.42 6869.83 6971.42 7096.83 7198.42 7323.83 7425.42
HSH18 28143 28501 28730 29088 29317 29675 29904
NKH18 21957 22108 22217 22368 22477 22628 22737
FTH18 7188.67 7304.33 7368.17 7483.83 7547.67 7663.33 7727.17
GCJ18 1256.73 1261.17 1264.33 1268.77 1271.93 1276.37 1279.53
SIK18 1611.17 1619.33 1626.67 1634.83 1642.17 1650.33 1657.67
HGK18 287.97 292.38 295.62 300.03 303.27 307.68 310.92
CLK18 65.90 66.83 67.55 68.48 69.20 70.13 70.85
WK18 456.75 465.00 471.25 479.50 485.75 494.00 500.25
SK18 840.75 856.00 865.50 880.75 890.25 905.50 915.00
CK18 338.25 343.75 347.50 353.00 356.75 362.25 366.00

 

  Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

證券 CFD 亞洲                2018-06-26

 

 
市場綜述
日本股市週二(6月26日)跌至三周半低點後回升,空頭回補操作推動近期受打壓的股票上漲,儘管圍繞全球貿易緊張局勢存在擔憂。截至收盤,日經225指數收平報22,342.00點,早盤跌1%至22,104.12點,為6月1日以來最低。東證股價指數上漲0.2%至1,731.07點。

個股方面,銀行和船運股上漲,三菱日聯金融集團(MUFG)漲1.0%,三井住友金融集團漲0.9%。近期有所下滑的船運股回升。商船三井大漲2.4%,川崎汽船上漲1.0%。東京電子(東京威力科創)保持在八個月低點附近,愛德萬測試(Advantest)保持在兩個月低點左右,與此同時美國晶片設備廠商應用材料(Applied Materials)則徘徊在逾四個月低點附近。

港股方面,週一美國三大股指集體下跌,道指收跌逾320點或1.33%,報24252.80點,為近兩年來首次收於200日均線下方,全球貿易衝突持續升級。今日早盤,恒指低開低走,一度跌超1%,此後跌幅收窄。午後恒指一度翻紅。截至收盤,恒生指數跌0.28%,報28881.4點;國企指數跌開0.8%,報11118.89點;紅籌指數跌0.68%,報4337.39點。大市成交1247.72億港元。

個股方面,內房股遭遇重挫,其中,碧桂園大跌超6.65%,融創中國跌4.81%,富力地產跌3.41%。昨日有市場傳聞稱,國開行總行棚改專案合同簽訂審批權回收總行,過去執行的貨幣化拆遷安置方式,將改為實物安置為主。簡單的說,政策會大幅度收緊,只有總行有權利批錢,流入房地產的國開行資金會大幅減少。人民幣不斷貶值,離岸人民幣跌破6.56關口,刷新半年新低。今日航空股繼續受挫,其中,南方航空跌4.14%,國際航空跌2.85%,東方航空跌0.53%。

技術分析
NK_

觀察SGX日本225股指期貨CFD4H圖,日內價格小幅反彈,觸及22050一線後走高。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力目標22500一線。下行方面,價格支撐考驗22000一線。

 

HS_

產品 開盤價 最高價 最低價 收盤價
HS_ 28890 29029 28473 28940

觀察香港50股指期貨CFD日線圖,價格日內探底回升,一度失守29000關口。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標小幅向下。後市來看,價格初步阻力指向29800一線。下行方面,價格支撐目標考驗28400一線。