29 6 月 2018

Daily  Market View

             

   Daily  Market View

  Friday, June 29, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24225 2719.50 7060.50
+0.41% +0.62% +0.79%

U.S stock-market indexes closed higher yesterday, with broad-based gains led by a rally in financials and technology sectors. The S&P 500 financials sector rose nearly 1% and snapped a 13-day slump, its longest losing streak ever. The S&P 500 index rose 16.68 points, a rise of 0.6%. The NASDAQ added 58.60 points, or 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 98.46 points, a gain of 0.4%. The blue-chip average remained below its 200-day moving average as it came off its lowest close since early May. Equities have been volatile, with major indexes seeing big swings in both directions, often in the same session, and usually in response to changing headlines about trade policy. However, they remain in the fairly tight trading range that indexes have been mired in for months. Thus far this week, the Dow is off 1.4%, the S&P has lost 1.6%, and the NASDAQ has lost 2.5%. For the second quarter, the Dow is up 0.5%, the S&P has gained 2.9%, and the NASDAQ is up 6.2%. For 2018, the Dow has lost 2%, the S&P has gained 1.6%, and the NASDAQ has surged 8.7%.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

may

German Retail Sales (YoY) 06:00 1.8% 1.2%

jun

German Unemployment Change (000’s) 07:55 -8k -11k

jun

German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. 07:55 5.2% 5.2%

1Q

U.K Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 08:30 1.2% 1.2%

jun

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 09:00 1.0% 1.1%

apr

Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 12:30 2.6% 2.9%

may

U.S Personal Spending 12:30 0.4% 0.6%

may

U.S PCE Core (YoY) 12:30 1.9% 1.8%

jun

U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager 13:45 60.0 62.7
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 3.14% or 1.55 points to trade at 50.86 at the close. Meanwhile, International Business Machines added 1.86% or 2.56 points to end at 140.04 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was up 1.64% or 1.69 points to 104.93 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, which fell 1.32% or 3.27 points to trade at 244.90 at the close. Walmart Inc. declined 1.19% or 1.03 points to end at 85.86 and General Electric Company was down 0.93% or 0.13 points to 13.83.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index added 0.79% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were MagneGas Corp which rose 51.92% to 0.562, VivoPower International PLC which was up 61.38% to settle at 2.34 and Leading Brands Inc. which gained 28.07% to close at 1.460. The worst performers were Arsanis Inc. which was down 78.01% to 4.00 in late trade, China Advanced Construction Materials which lost 29.79% to settle at 4.950 and Differential Brands Group Inc. which was down 26.61% to 4.000 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices climbed yesterday, with U.S. crude hitting a three-and-a-half year high, bolstered by supply concerns due to U.S sanctions that could cause a large drop in crude exports from Iran. Crude futures rose 69 cents, nearly 1 percent, to settle at $73.45 a barrel. It reached $74.03 earlier in the session, the highest since Nov. 26, 2014. The United States this week demanded countries halt imports of Iranian oil from November; a hardline position the Trump administration hopes will cut off funding to Tehran. Yesterday, officials said they would work with countries on a case-by-case basis. China, the biggest importer of Iran’s oil, has not committed to the U.S. position. The U.S. demands follow a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week to increase production to try to moderate oil prices that have rallied more than 40 percent over the last year.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold fell to its lowest in more than six months yesterday as the dollar held near a one-year high, propelled by mounting pressure from a U.S.-driven trade dispute that has led investors to dump equities. Global equities slipped to their lowest in almost three months, buffeted again after U.S. President Donald Trump and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow outlined plans to clamp down on Chinese acquisitions of sensitive American technologies. The trade tensions pushed the dollar to test a one-year high against a currency basket. A strong dollar makes dollar-priced gold costlier for non U.S. investors and while falling equities, seen as risky assets, usually help safe-haven gold, they have failed to do so this time. There is some safe-haven demand going into gold but not as much as is going elsewhere, like the dollar or treasuries or safe-haven currencies like the franc. Spot gold was flat at $1,250.80 an ounce. Earlier, it touched $1,248.21, its lowest since mid-December.  U.S. gold futures for August delivery dropped 0.3 percent at $1,252.70 an ounce. Investors are positioning for a potentially fraught meeting of European Union leaders to discuss issues such as migration, Brexit and trade. They are also looking for indications on the survival prospects for the fractious new German coalition. Nowadays, there is no safe-haven appeal for gold; people are tracking other assets as safe havens. In a nod to dollar bulls, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren on Wednesday said the central bank should continue to raise interest rates gradually to lower the risk of a major policy error. The dollar index’s strength is mainly powered by hopes for higher rates and rising yields and there seems to be no change in this any time soon.  Indicating falling demand for gold, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped 0.36 percent to 821.69 tonnes on Wednesday. In other precious metals, spot silver was 0.3 percent higher at $16.10 an ounce. In the prior session, it touched its lowest since mid-December at $15.94.

 

 

 

Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

Wheat futures edged lower falling for four in five sessions as ample global supplies and pressure from harvest of the U.S winter crop weighed on the market.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, June 28, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24135 24292 23976 24225 81
S & P 500 SPM18 2705 2726.25 2693 2719.5 13.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6988.25 7075.5 6955.75 7060.5 59.5
Hang Seng HSH18 28184 28383 27959 28265 95
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22175 22275 22015 22245 0
FTSE 100 FTH18 7530 7594.5 7512 7585.5 74
Gold GCJ18 1253.5 1255.5 1247 1249.8 -4.3
Silver SIK18 1603 1608 1586.5 1597.5 -7
Copper HGK18 297.8 298.1 292.95 295.65 -2.45
Crude Oil CLK18 72.23 73.99 72.17 73.35 0.98
Wheat WK18 487.5 492.25 482.5 484 -4.75
Soybeans SK18 871.5 874.75 864.75 867.25 -6.25
Corn CK18 360.75 361.25 353.75 `355.00 -7.25

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23721 23848 24037 24164 24353 24480 24669
SPM18 2666.33 2679.67 2699.58 2712.92 2732.83 2746.17 2766.08
NDM18 6865.92 6910.83 6985.67 7030.58 7105.42 7150.33 7225.17
HSH18 27598 27778 28022 28202 28446 28626 28870
NKH18 21822 21918 22082 22178 22342 22438 22602
FTH18 7451.00 7481.50 7533.50 7564.00 7616.00 7646.50 7698.50
GCJ18 1237.53 1242.27 1246.03 1250.77 1254.53 1259.27 1263.03
SIK18 1565.17 1575.83 1586.67 1597.33 1608.17 1618.83 1629.67
HGK18 287.88 290.42 293.03 295.57 298.18 300.72 303.33
CLK18 70.53 71.35 72.35 73.17 74.17 74.99 75.99
WK18 470.50 476.50 480.25 486.25 490.00 496.00 499.75
SK18 853.08 858.92 863.08 868.92 873.08 878.92 883.08
CK18 344.58 349.17 352.08 356.67 359.58 364.17 367.08

 

  Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

29 6 月 2018

                      證券CFD亞洲                2018-06-29

 

 
市場綜述
日本股市週五(6月29日)小幅上漲,因亞洲股市從九個月低點反彈,日元兌美元走軟也提供了支撐。日經指數本周仍下跌0.95%,本周有關美國及其主要交易夥伴國之間貿易衝突的疑慮打擊投資者冒險意願。截至收盤,日經225指數收盤漲0.15%至22,304.51點,盤中一度跌至22,145.48點低位。東證股價指數漲0.23%報1,730.89點。

日股33個分類指數中有22個上漲,醫藥和食品等防禦類股領漲;油煤產品類股下跌,因原油價格從三年半高位回落。夏普跳漲15.19%,百分比漲幅居大盤之冠,因該公司宣佈取消發行不超過20億美元新股的計畫,稱中美貿易摩擦加大了股市的波動性。此舉緩解了股票稀釋疑慮。

港股方面,今日早盤,恒指低開高走,三大股指集體漲超1%。午後恒指漲幅進一步擴大,一度高見28962.29點。截至收盤,恒指漲1.61%,報28955.11點;國企指數漲1.88%,報11073點;紅籌指數漲2.85%,報4376.51點。今日為港股月結,季結及半年結日,恒指指數月跌4.97%,半年跌3.22%。

個股方面,今日醫藥股、科網股、地產股走高。其中,龍頭房企融創漲9.8%,碧桂園漲11.29%,中國恒大漲8.58%。今年以來,藍籌股是要集團暴漲51%,為今年表現最佳藍籌;舜宇光學漲46.89%,中石化漲30.46%,中海油漲23.39%。

技術分析
NK_

觀察SGX日本225股指期貨CFD4H圖,日內價格震盪走跌,一度觸及22120一線後反彈。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱溫和,RSI指標走平。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力目標22500一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐考驗22000一線。

 

HS_

產品 開盤價 最高價 最低價 收盤價
HS_ 28277 28761 28247 28724

觀察香港50股指期貨CFD日線圖,價格日內反彈收漲,最高探至28761一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,RSI指標向上。後市來看,價格初步阻力指向29100一線。下行方面,價格支撐目標考驗28000關口。

 

                        2018-06-29

 

 
市場綜述
週五(6月29日)亞市盤中,美元指數大幅回落跌破95整數關,最低至94.73。因歐盟峰會達成移民協議大幅提振歐元。受此影響,市場風險情緒回歸,非美貨幣普遍上漲。分析師指出,隨著其他主要央行開始在利率正常化方面趕上美聯儲,全球經濟增長面臨的威脅得到遏制,美元不太可能進一步走強。北京時間週五20:30將公佈美國個人支出、PCE通脹等數據,這些數據都是美聯儲加息的重要參考依據,如果公佈的數據好於預期,那麼美元指數晚間將很有可能再度收復95關口並繼續走高,反之,美指可能會隨著美債收益率的回落而展開回調,美元指數短期內測試96關口的希望也將破滅。

英鎊方面,英鎊/美元週五亞市盤中上漲,最高至1.31277。英國公佈第一季GDP公佈值為0.2%,優於市場預期的0.1%。另外因歐盟達成移民協議提振了歐元以及英鎊,此外美元指數大跌也是使得英鎊的漲幅進一步擴大。市場認為,鑑於歐盟領導人淡化英國脫歐取得進展的預期,且英國脫歐問題在峰會議程上算不上最重要的,分析師認為英鎊不太可能從峰會得到顯著提振。考慮到下週的內閣會議以及北愛爾蘭邊界仍構成問題,兩天的峰會似乎難以達成什麼共識。未來英國脫歐談判缺乏進展將可能會導致英鎊走弱。

日元方面,美元/日元週五亞市盤中上漲,最高至110.775。亞市早盤日本公佈5月失業率,公佈值為2.2%,低於4月以及市場預期的2.5%,另外因歐盟峰會達成移民協議,這使得市場避險情緒快速降溫。據消息顯示,歐盟領導人已經達成移民協議,受此影響,風險資產普遍提振,避險資產如日元等貨幣回落。

歐元方面,歐元/美元週四亞市盤中上漲,最高至1.16650。歐盟領導人在峰會上就移民問題​​達成協議!據外媒報導,歐盟各成員國領導人在峰會上就移民問題​​達成協議,避免歐盟峰會出現危機。歐盟官員表示,領導人同意新的地中海移民接納中心將由歐盟成員國以自願為基礎進行管理。法國總統馬克龍表示,歐盟領導人同意就移民問題​​採取一致的舉措,歐洲各國的合作帶來了今天的勝利,不過馬克龍預計歐洲面臨的移民壓力還將持續很長時間。晚些時間歐元區將公佈6月消費者物價指數(年率),分析師預計數據公佈對於目前歐元區影響不大。

技術分析
EURUSD

從4小時圖上看,歐元/美元日內上漲。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於平衡區50上方。後市來看,價位將上漲,匯價阻力目標指向 1.17000一線。下行方面,匯價初步支撐考驗1.15600一線。

 

USDJPY

從4小時圖上看,美元/日元日內上漲。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱緊縮,RSI指標位於平衡區50上方。後市來看,價位將上漲,匯價阻力位考驗111.300。下行方面,匯價支撐看向110.100一線。

 

 

 證券 CFD 歐美                   2018-06-29

 

產品 開盤價 最高價 最低價 收盤價
DJ_ 24135 24292 23976 24218
SP_ 2705.00 2726.25 2693.00 2719.00
ND_ 6998.00 7075.50 6955.75 7059.50
FT_ 7531.0 7595.5 7513.0 7583.5
市場綜述
美國股市週四隨著銀行和科技股領漲三大股指,美國股市從早先的跌勢中反彈。道瓊斯工業平均指數反彈98.46點,收於24216.05點,此前該指數曾短暫下跌100點。標準普爾500指數收高0.62%,報2,716.31點。納斯達克綜合指數收盤上漲0.79%,至7503.68點。

個股方面,波音成為表現最好的道指成份股。標普500指數的11大組成板塊中,金融、科技與電訊板塊漲幅領先。亞馬遜股價收高2.47%,該公司宣佈將收購在線藥房初創公司PillPack,從而進軍醫療保健市場。摩根大通、高盛、花旗集團、摩根士丹利和美國銀行的股價均上漲逾1%,提振了金融類股。在週四之前,銀行板塊已經連續13個交易日下跌。

英國股市週四報收於7615.63點,比前一交易日下跌6.06點,跌幅為0.08%。歐洲三大股指當天全線下跌,其他兩大主要股指方面,法國巴黎股市指數報收於5275.64點,跌幅為0.97%;德國法蘭克福股市指數報收於12177.23點,跌幅為1.39%。

個股方面,當天倫敦股市成分股中煙草類個股領漲,位於漲幅前五位的個股分別為:英美煙草股價上漲3.85%,希爾制藥股價上漲3.10%,煙草集團帝國品牌公司股價上漲2.83% ,在線餐飲外賣公司JUST EAT股價上漲2.07%,水務公司Severn Trent股價上漲1.62%。而成分股中資源類個股則領跌,位於跌幅前五位的個股分別為:軟件和信息服務商微聚國際股價下跌3.70%,投資公司梅爾羅斯工業公司股價下跌3.16%,化學品公司莊信萬豐股價下跌2.96%,嘉能可股價下跌2.80%,在線零售商Ocado集團股價下跌2.73%。

技術分析
DJ_

從DJ_日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至24292一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標上行至37。後市來看,價格初步阻力目標指向24500一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向24000一線。

 

SP_

從SP_日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至2726.25一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標上行至44。後市來看,價格初步阻力目標指向2740.00一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向2700.00一線。

 

 ND_

從ND_日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至7075.50一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標上行。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向7140.00一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向7000.00一線。

 

 FT_

從FT_日線圖上看,價格隔夜上漲,最高探至7595.5一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,快線與慢線拉近間距,RSI指標向上延伸。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向7680.0一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向7540.0一線。

 

 商品 CFD 日報                    2018-06-29

 
市場綜述
週四(6月28日)美元指數從高位回落,雖因美聯儲和其他主要發達經濟體央行的貨幣政策分化,美元指數一度上漲至95.54為去年7月中旬以來的新高。但美國數據意外表現疲弱,最終報收於95.28 。日內公佈的美國GDP終值以及初請數據均表現不及預期,且前者的表現與美國總統特朗普和財長努欽近日言論相悖。

現貨黃金週四持續下挫,美市盤中最低下探至 1245.70 美元/金衡盎司。數據方面,日內公佈的上週初請失業救濟金人數為22.7萬人,略高於前值的21.8萬人。初請失業金人數增幅大於預期,而失業金申請人數已連續四周下降,報告中稱趨勢仍與勞工市場收緊保持一致。美國第一季度實際GDP年化季率終值為2%,低於前值的2.2%。個人消費支出的表現錄得0.9%,是近5年來最差水平,表明市場對貿易戰的恐慌,給未來美國經濟前景帶來陰影。有分析師指出,美元可能會繼續走強,受到利率和債券收益率走高的帶動,都是導致黃金變得沒那麼吸引人的關鍵原因。

國際原油週四收漲0.69美元,報73.16美元/桶。因美國原油庫存報告的利好影響仍在發酵,同時伊朗原油出口危機也有效抵消了石油輸出國組織(OPEC)增產帶來的逆風因素。此外,根據美國油服公司公佈的數據顯示,美國石油活躍鑽井數減少1座至862座,連續12週增加後首次錄得下降。本月迄今,美國石油活躍鑽井數僅增加3座,為3月份減少2座以來最小月度增幅,印證了分析師認為美國石油活躍鑽井數增加潛力已經耗盡的看法。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)大豆期貨週四小幅收跌,因美國中西部作物帶近期迎來充沛降雨後,今年美豆豐產預期令市場進一步承壓。CBOT 8月大豆期貨合約收跌6-1/4美分,報每蒲式耳8.66-3/4美元。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)玉米期貨週四小幅收漲,因美國農業部發布的周度出口銷售數據優於預期。目前市場在靜候週五美國政府發布報告,預計報告將顯示玉米播種面積增加,庫存充裕。CBOT 9月玉米合約報每蒲式耳3.54-1/4美元。

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)小麥期貨週四收低,因美國冬麥收割加速,以及在周五美國農業部(USDA)作物報告出爐前交易商軋平頭寸,對小麥市場帶來壓力。CBOT 9月軟紅冬麥期貨收低5美分,結算價報每蒲式耳4.83-1/2美元。

COMEX期銅週四下跌,報收於297.40美分/磅。因擔心美國政府在限制中國投資問題上發出矛盾信號,令美中貿易緊張局勢存在較大變數而拖累經濟增長和工業金屬需求。

技術分析
XAUUSD

日線圖顯示,金價隔夜下跌,最低探至1245.70。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標於超賣區22。後市來看,上行方面,金價初步阻力考驗1255.00一帶。下行方面,金價目標支撐考驗1240.00一帶。

 

XAGUSD

日線圖顯示,銀價隔夜震盪收跌,最低探至15.893。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標接近36。後市來看,上行方面,銀價初步阻力考驗16.150一帶,下行方面,銀價目標支撐考驗15.850一帶。

 

 CL_

日線圖顯示,油價隔夜上漲,最高探至73.99。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向上,RSI指標上行至超買區下方。後市來看,上行方面,油價初步阻力考驗74.50一帶,下行方面,油價目標支撐考驗72.50一帶。

 

 HG_

日線圖顯示,銅價隔夜下跌,最低探至292.85。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標下行至超賣區上方。後市來看,上行方面,銅價初步阻力考驗300.00一帶,下行方面,銅價目標支撐考驗293.00一帶。

 

 

 

 

 

                           2018-06-29

   
市場綜述
週四(6月28日)日內公佈的數據顯示,美國至6月23日當周初請失業金人數錄得22.7萬人,高於預期22萬人,而美國財長努欽週三曾表示對美國債務/GDP比例感到安心,但美國實際GDP年化季率公佈值2.0%,不及預測值的2.2%,與財長努欽近日言論相悖。整體數據意外令人失望,不過在數據出爐後,美元指數波動不大,仍維持在95.00關鍵關口之上。

歐元方面,歐元/美元早盤開於1.15524後於區間內震盪,而日內公佈的數據顯示,歐元區經濟景氣指數公佈值112.3,好於預測值112.0;歐元區工業景氣指數公佈值6.9,好於預測值6.5;歐元區消費者信心指數公佈值-0.5,與預測值一致,在數據公佈之後,歐元/美元開始一路走高,與此同時,令人失望的美國一季度GDP數據更是讓歐元/美元一度反彈至1.16000關口附近,錄得日內高點1.15991。不過隨後歐元/美元的走勢因愛爾蘭總理而遭到拖累,自1.16000關口處下跌至1.15500一帶,終收於1.15673。

英鎊方面,歐盟在布魯塞爾舉行夏季峰會,就在峰會召開之際,愛爾蘭總理稱,必須開始為不大可能出現的英國在達不成協議的情況下離開歐盟的情境做準備,而愛爾蘭不會為硬邊境作準備。在愛爾蘭總理的講話之後,市場對英國脫歐憂慮的升溫,再加上美元指數企穩於95關口上方進一步加強了英鎊的跌勢,英鎊/美元短線急挫,最低跌至1.30483。不過隨後,英國央行首席經濟學家霍爾丹稱,即使加息25個基點,英國貨幣政策狀況依舊史無前例的“極度寬鬆”;為加息25個基點投票“既不令人驚訝也不會感到激進”。受霍爾丹言論提振,英鎊/美元自低位急劇反彈約60點,至1.30900一帶,終收於1.30765。

 

技術分析
EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜收出陽線。技術指標上,EMA(9,15,30)呈空頭排列,MACD看漲動能柱微縮,快線及慢線位於零軸下方,並交疊在一起,RSI指標位於平衡區39。後市看來,價格阻力初步考驗1.16000一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位1.15000一線。

 

USDJPY

從日線圖上看,美元/日元隔夜收出陽線。技術指標上,EMA(9,15,30)呈現多頭排列,MACD看跌動能柱微縮,快線及慢線位於零軸上方,並交疊在一起,RSI指標位於平衡區57。後市看來,價格阻力目標依舊考驗111.000一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位110.000一線。

 

GBPUSD

從日線圖上看,英鎊/美元隔夜收出陰線。技術指標上,EMA(9,15,30)呈空頭排列,MACD快線及慢線位於零軸下方,並呈下行趨勢,RSI指標位於超賣區27。後市看來,價格阻力目標依舊考驗1.31000一線。下行方面,價格關鍵支撐位1.30100一線。

 

 

28 6 月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

FOREX Newsletter

June 28, 2018

 

     
Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar rose broadly yesterday, including against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen

·      Sterling weakened as imminent Brexit talks and doubts the BOE will raise interest rates this year

·      The euro fell from the threat of a political crisis in Germany and uncertainty over EU summit

·      Despite easing in trade tensions, the trade-sensitive Australian dollar remained under pressure

 

The U.S dollar rose sharply against its rivals yesterday, as a rout of safe-haven currencies prompted traders to pile into the greenback after the White House softened its stance on restricting foreign investment. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.48% to 94.81. U.S President Donald Trump said he would back Congress’ passage of the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA), which would expand the powers of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), helping it combat alleged theft of U.S. intellectual property by China. The decision to back CFIUS not the somewhat harsher International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 – which would have allowed Trump to unilaterally impose restrictions – sparked risk appetite, sending safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc sharply lower against the greenback. USD/JPY rose 0.25% to Y110.34, while USD/CHF rose 0.50% 0.9962. Mixed U.S. economic data showing an unexpected narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit and weaker durable goods orders did little to curb demand for the dollar. The Commerce Department said yesterday Core Durable Goods Orders fell 0.3% last month, missing economist forecast for a 0.5% rise. The US trade deficit narrowed to $64.85 billion, well below economists’ forecasts of $68.9 billion, from a revised $67.34 billion. The dollar’s move higher was also supported by a slump in both the euro and sterling as the latter was weighed down by Brexit angst, and uncertainty as to whether the Bank of England would hike interest rates this year. USD/CAD rose 0.02% to C$1.3309 as rallying oil prices continued to support the loonie, limiting gains in the currency pair, after the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report showed a massive draw in domestic crude supplies.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL) Medium   10.6 10.7
08:00 ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin Medium      
09:00 Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUN) Low   112 112.5
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN) Low   -0.5 -0.5
10:00 BOE’s Bailey Speaks on the Future of Payments in London Low      
12:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) High   2.2% 2.2%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 23) Medium   220k 218k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (JUN 16) Medium   1718k 1723k
12:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (1Q) High   2.2% 2.2%
12:30 U.S Personal Consumption (1Q) Medium   1.0% 1.0%
12:30 U.S Core PCE (QoQ) (1Q) Medium     2.3%
13:30 BOE Chief Economist Andy Haldane Speaks in London Medium      
22:45 New Zealand Building Permits (MoM) (MAY) Medium     -3.7%
23:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (JUN) Medium   -7 -7
23:30 Japan Jobless Rate (MAY) Medium   2.5% 2.5%

 

Euro

The single currency was under pressure from worries about the trade conflict, the threat of a political crisis in Germany, and uncertainty over a European Union summit dealing with immigration. The U.S. dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies was up 0.65 percent at 95.274, on pace for its second day of gains. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1539 and a high of 1.1670 before closing the day around 1.1555 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair rallied after a moderation in the U.S administration’s approach to Chinese investment. The dollar was up 0.15 percent against the yen at 110.21 yen and advanced 0.64 percent against the franc. The Japanese and Swiss units tend to benefit at the dollar’s expense in times of geopolitical and financial tensions. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 109.66 and a high of 110.47 before closing the day around 110.27 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound hit lows of $1.31 against the US dollar as investors digested recent dovish comments from MPC member-in-waiting Johnathan Haskel. Investors haven’t had much in the form of significant UK data releases to assess this week, but Sterling has seen some movement as markets reacted to a range of combative statements from the Bank of England (BoE). Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3104 and a high of 1.3231 before closing the day at 1.3114 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar continues to have an uneventful week. Yesterday Canadian Dollar fell on the release front; the sole Canadian event was a speech from BoC Governor Stephen Poloz. In the U.S, the focus was on durable goods orders. Today, the U.S will publish Final GDP for the first quarter and unemployment claims. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3274 and a high of 1.3384 before closing the day at 1.3344 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continued to edge lower yesterday Despite the slight easing in trade policy tensions, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, which are dependent on trade with China, remained under pressure. If you look at the broader trade policy backdrop it is still fluid and still uncertain. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7321 and a high of 0.7405 before closing the day at 0.7337 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.57%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.08%.

 

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.48%.

 

 Euro-Sterling

 

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.07%.

  

 Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.18%.

 

 Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for June 27, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1645 1.16708 1.15392 1.15559 -0.0090
USD/JPY 110.028 110.471 109.667 110.272 0.2560
GBP/USD 1.32205 1.32319 1.31047 1.31144 -0.0107
USD/CHF 0.99076 0.99746 0.98895 0.99734 0.0069
USD/CAD 1.32991 1.3384 1.32748 1.33445 0.0040
EUR/JPY 128.144 128.322 127.236 127.424 -0.7340
GBP/JPY 110.519 110.634 110.342 110.589 0.0860
CHF/JPY 110.998 111.118 110.494 110.593 -0.4250
AUD/JPY 81.312 81.608 80.722 80.947 -0.3900
EUR/GBP 0.88054 0.88261 0.87952 0.88132 0.0006
EUR/CHF 1.15391 1.15528 1.15074 1.15237 -0.0013
GBP/CHF 1.31037 1.31114 1.30581 1.3078 -0.0023

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1375 1.1457 1.1506 1.1589 1.1638 1.1720 1.1770
USD/JPY 109.00 109.33 109.80 110.14 110.61 110.94 111.41
GBP/USD 1.2942 1.3023 1.3069 1.3150 1.3196 1.3278 1.3323
USD/CHF 0.9832 0.9861 0.9917 0.9946 1.0002 1.0031 1.0087
USD/CAD 1.3176 1.3225 1.3285 1.3334 1.3394 1.3444 1.3503
EUR/JPY 125.91 126.57 127.00 127.66 128.09 128.75 129.17
GBP/JPY 110.12 110.23 110.41 110.52 110.70 110.81 110.99
CHF/JPY 109.73 110.11 110.35 110.74 110.98 111.36 111.60
AUD/JPY 79.69 80.21 80.58 81.09 81.46 81.98 82.35
EUR/GBP 0.8766 0.8781 0.8797 0.8812 0.8828 0.8842 0.8859
EUR/CHF 1.1458 1.1483 1.1503 1.1528 1.1549 1.1573 1.1594
GBP/CHF 1.3000 1.3029 1.3054 1.3083 1.3107 1.3136 1.3160

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

證券 CFD 亞洲                2018-06-28

 

 
市場綜述
日本股市週四(6月28日)收平,但接近一個月低點,受美股疲弱影響,因美國和中國貿易爭端延燒損及投資人的冒險意願。關於日本央行將購買上市交易基金(ETF)以支撐市場的樂觀情緒,激發股指期貨買盤,這抑制了早盤跌幅。截至收盤,日經225指數收跌1.38點至22,270.39點,創6月1日以來最低收位。指數早盤一度下跌多達1%,午後則是回到平盤上下。東證股價指數下跌0.3%至1,727.00,創4月中旬以來最低收位。

週四下跌的個股包括零售商和製藥商類股,高島屋跌1.3%,安斯泰來製藥(Astellas)跌2.2%,大塚製藥挫跌2.9%。與其他很多市場一樣,美國同主要國家的貿易戰憂慮亦衝擊日股。日經波動率指數週四漲至21.24,為4月初以來最高。美國總統特朗普週三表示,將使用強化後的國家安全審查程式來阻止中國收購美國敏感技術。較之實施專門針對中國的投資限制,其立場有所軟化。

港股方面,美國三大股指全面收跌,納指跌幅超1.5%;原油價格受地緣政治以及美國庫存資料下降影響,再度飆升;6月28日,人民幣兌美元中間價調貶391個基點,報6.5960,連續七日調貶,再創逾一年半以來最低。今日早盤,恒指高開高走,午後一度大跌超0.5%,尾盤重回升勢。截至收盤,恒生指數高漲0.5%,報28497.32點;國企指數跌0.1%,報10868.45點;紅籌指數漲0.09%,報4255.15。大市成交1172.51億港元。

個股方面,重磅股走勢回暖,友邦保險漲2.87%,騰訊控股漲0.42%,港交所漲0.87%,滙豐控股漲0.55%。內房股再度走低,龍湖地產大跌超7%,世茂跌4.75%,中國恒大跌4.56%,碧桂園跌2.67%。政策規範房企海外融資也進一步利空地產。發改委昨日宣佈,要規範房地產企業境外發債資金投向,房地產企業境外發債主要用於償還到期債務,避免產生債務違約,限制房地產企業外債資金投資境內外房地產項目、補充運營資金等。

技術分析
NK_

觀察SGX日本225股指期貨CFD4H圖,日內價格探底回升,一度回撤至22015一線後反彈。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱微增,RSI指標小幅向上。後市來看,價格關鍵阻力目標22780一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐考驗22000一線。

 

HS_

產品 開盤價 最高價 最低價 收盤價
HS_ 28995 29043 28272 28371

觀察香港50股指期貨CFD日線圖,價格日內低位震盪,交投於28200一線附近。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標超賣。後市來看,價格初步阻力指向29000關口。下行方面,價格支撐目標考驗27900一線。

 

                        2018-06-28

 

 
市場綜述
週四(6月28日)亞市盤中,美元指數上漲,並刷新本周高點,目前來到95.54。受此影響,非美貨幣普遍承壓,本交易日,投資者將目光轉移至即將召開的歐盟峰會以及晚些時間公佈的美國第一季度實際GDP年化季率終值、美國第一季度實際個人消費支出季率終值、美國第一季度核心PCE物價指數年化季率終值以及美國至6月23日當周初請失業金人數等重要數據。其中GDP數據被視為重中之重,美國第一季度實際GDP年化季率終值的前值與預測值均為2.2%。也預料對金融市場將迎來更大的震盪。分析師認為,美元指數目前已經升破了95整數關口並且仍在繼續走高,美指在96整數關口目前仍有阻力。本交易日的數據將關係到美元指數能否再本週上探至96這個重要關口。

歐元部分,歐元/美元週四盤中震盪,最低至1.15268,歐盟峰會將於6月28日至6月29日召開,此次歐盟峰會對於歐元區來說有著極為重要的影響,目前歐元區正處於風雨飄搖之際,難民問題、和美國的貿易摩擦、英國脫歐問題、財政預算統一以及債務問題等都是歐盟當前的主要麻煩。此次歐盟峰會,難民問題是關注的重點之一,德國總理默克爾2015年下令收容了110萬名難民,使她在國內的聲望至今尚未完全恢復。它不僅給歐洲帶來極大的經濟負擔,而且還造成社會分裂,極右翼政黨崛起。歐盟峰會召開在即,投資者擔心歐盟峰會的失敗將使歐元遭受致命性的打擊,此外,美指的強勢也是匯價跌跌不休的主因之一。與此同時英國將會公佈脫歐白皮書,同時將在歐盟峰會上拿出脫歐後的關稅安排與建議,並於歐盟峰會時討論。英國關稅安排主要集中在與愛爾蘭的關稅邊界上,愛爾蘭外長科尼夫在歐盟峰會召開前夕表示,愛爾蘭邊界擔保方案仍在討論中,無協議脫歐的可能性不大,希望脫歐談判能在7月加快,這對於陷入泥潭的脫歐談判而言無疑是一個利好的消息。

日元方面,美元/日元週四上漲,最高至110.404,亞市早盤日本公佈5月季調後零售銷售(月率)初值,公佈後為-1.7%,低於市場預期的-0.8%,分析師指出,美元指數近期上漲,美元/日元已經突破本週新高,加上日本央行(BOJ)副總裁雨宮正佳表示,BOJ未來可能調整超寬鬆貨幣政策,日本首相安倍晉三也表示,除非發生雷曼兄弟式危機,日本政府仍準備按計劃上調消費稅,增添日本經濟復甦的不確定性。

技術分析
EURUSD

從4小時圖上看,歐元/美元日內震盪。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱緊縮,RSI指標位於強勢回轉點。後市來看,價位短期將持續震盪,匯價支撐目標指向 1.16000一線。上行方面,匯價初步阻力考驗1.15000一線。

 

USDJPY

從4小時圖上看,美元/日元日內上漲。技術指標上,MACD看漲動能柱擴張,RSI指標位於平衡區50上方。後市來看,價位將上漲,匯價阻力位考驗111.000。下行方面,匯價支撐看向109.800一線。

 

 

證券 CFD 歐美                   2018-06-28

 

產品 開盤價 最高價 最低價 收盤價
DJ_ 24277 24562 24076 24137
SP_ 2726.50 2747.75 2700.75 2705.50
ND_ 7097.75 7151.00 6987.75 7000.00
FT_ 7492.5 7574.5 7447.0 7509.5
市場綜述
美國股市週三收盤走低,抹去了大幅上漲,因美國對中國投資其科技企業的立場再度變得撲朔迷離。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌165.52點,收於24,117.59點,英特爾是該指數中表現最差的股票之一。標準普爾500指數回落0.9%至2,699.63點。納斯達克綜合指數下跌1.5%,至7,445.08點。

個股方面,金融類股回吐盤中稍早的反彈,創下連續13天的虧損紀錄。金融類股SPDR基金(XLF)收低1.3%。美國銀行、摩根大通、摩根士丹利和花旗集團均下跌至少1%。亞馬遜和Alphabet分別下跌1.8%和1.4%。 Facebook和Netflix的股價下跌也推動納斯達克指數走低。標普科技指數下跌1.5%,對標普500指數帶來最大的拖累。營收依賴中國的晶片製造商跌幅更大。費城半導體指數下滑2.5%。

英國股市週三報收於7621.69點,比前一交易日上漲83.77點,漲幅為1.11%。歐洲三大股指當天全線上漲,其他兩大主要股指方面,法國巴黎股市指數報收於5327.20點,漲幅為0.87%;德國法蘭克福股市指數報收於12348.61點,漲幅為0.93%。

個股方面,當天倫敦股市成分股中消費類個股領漲,位於漲幅前五位的個股分別為:軟件和信息服務商微聚國際股價上漲4.67%,在線零售商Ocado集團股價上漲3.92%,餐飲及酒店集團惠特布雷德股價上漲3.44%,羅爾斯羅伊斯控股公司股價上漲3.35%,英國石油股價上漲3.35%。而成分股中金融類個股則領跌,位於跌幅前五位的個股分別為:在線餐飲外賣公司JUST EAT股價下跌7.11%,供應鏈服務商Bunzl股價下跌1.31%,蘇格蘭皇家銀行集團股價下跌1.09% ,耆衛保險公司股價下跌0.95%,英國聯合食品集團股價下跌0.85%。

技術分析
DJ_

從DJ_日線圖上看,價格隔夜震盪收跌,最低探至24076一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標下行。後市來看,價格初步阻力目標指向24400一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向23900一線。

 

SP_

從SP_日線圖上看,價格隔夜下跌,最低探至2700.75一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標下行至39。後市來看,價格初步阻力目標指向2730.00一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向2690.00一線。

  

ND_

從ND_日線圖上看,價格隔夜下跌,最低探至6987.75一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標下行至42。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向7080.00一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向6940.00一線。

 

 FT_

從FT_日線圖上看,價格隔夜小幅收漲,最高探至7574.5一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱縮減,快線與慢線趨勢向下,RSI指標接近44。後市來看,價格阻力目標指向7580.0一線。下行方面,價格初步支撐看向7440.0一線。