20 12月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, December 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23312 2504.75 6352.50
+0.95% +0.54% +0.93%

U.S stocks gained earlier in yesterday’s trading session before the outcome of a key policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 193 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 index rose 20 points, or 0.8%. The NASDAQ climbed 48 points, or 0.7%. Investors are expecting the Fed to help assuage brewing anxieties that have underpinned a recent bout of market tumult as the central bank’s interest-rate setting committee. Meanwhile, U.S Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gave investors reason for optimism regarding U.S-China trade relations, when he said the U.S and China will meet in January to broker a trade-war truce, in an interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday. Previously, the Trump administration hadn’t given a specific timetable for face-to-face negotiations. With volume so light this time of year, investors should brace for more volatility. Existing home sales rose 1.9%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.32 million from October to November, according to the National Association of Realtors.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target     0.00%

dec

BOJ Rate Decision     -0.10%

nov

Australia Employment Change 00:30 20.0k 32.8k

nov

Australia Unemployment Rate 00:30 5.0% 5.0%

dec

Bank of England Bank Rate 12:00 0.75% 0.75%

dec

BOE Asset Purchase Target 12:00 435b 435b

dec

U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 13:30 15.5 12.9

dec

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 219k 206k

nov

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) 23:30 0.8% 1.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.49% to hit a new 52-week low. The best performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 0.38% or 0.21 points to trade at 55.86 at the close. Meanwhile, The Travelers Companies Inc. fell 0.12% or 0.14 points to end at 119.16 and International Business Machines was down 0.19% or 0.22 points to 116.43 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 4.55% or 2.17 points to trade at 45.57 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 3.12% or 5.18 points to end at 160.89 and Nike Inc. was down 3.06% or 2.18 points to 68.97.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 2.17%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Marin Software Inc. which rose 78.76% to 6.650, China Automotive Systems Inc. which was up 42.06% to settle at 3.040 and Evine Live Inc. which gained 41.85% to close at 0.558. The worst performers were Surface Oncology Inc. which was down 47.50% to 3.89 in late trade, Biocept Inc. which lost 29.82% to settle at 0.800 and Toughbuilt Industries Inc. which was down 24.00% to 1.14 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose about 3 percent yesterday, recovering somewhat from a sharp sell-off during the previous session, after U.S data showed strong demand for refined products. Sentiment remains negative, however, as investors grapple with weakening demand and worries about oversupply. U.S light crude contract rose $1.44 a barrel to $48.04. The markets slumped on Tuesday, extending a recent run of poor performance. Global benchmark Brent tumbled 5.6 percent on Tuesday, just above a 14-month low reached during the session, while WTI lost 7.3 percent, falling to its lowest level since August 2017. Crude inventories fell by 497,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 14, smaller than the decrease of 2.4 million barrels analysts had expected. The decline was the third consecutive decrease, the U.S Energy Information Administration said. The OPEC and other oil producers including Russia agreed this month to curb output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in an attempt to drain tanks and boost prices.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose to a one-week high yesterday, helped by a weaker U.S dollar and a fall in global stock markets, but moves were limited as investors sought clarity on the path of U.S interest rates as concerns about a slowing global economy deepened. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,247.06 per ounce, having earlier touched its highest since Dec. 10 at $1,250.27, just short of a five-month peak of $1,250.55 hit last week. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,251.30 per ounce. There has been a slight increase in the minority view that the Fed might not raise rates, given the recent weakness in the equity markets. It would be quite a shock if they didn’t increase rates in this week’s meeting. Most of the attention will be on how many more interest rates rises there may be next year. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year at its two-day policy meeting ending today. But weak stock markets and slowing global growth may prompt the central bank to signal a slowdown in rate increases. We have seen quite a broad-based sell-off across many other markets, from equities to other commodity markets, and an increase in risk aversion. In that climate, gold is edging gradually higher towards a multi-months peak. World stock markets tumbled as fears about a slowing global economy gripped investors, while the dollar index slipped 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Gold tends to gain when interest rate hike expectations ease because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, in which it is priced. In euro terms, gold reached its highest since June at 1,100.57 euro an ounce. Gold, considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has risen more than 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. It is also set to post its biggest quarterly gains since March 2017. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent to $14.63.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures edged higher yesterday as the oilseed market awaited signs of further demand from China as part of a trade truce with Washington. Wheat eased after gaining ground on Monday while corn ticked upwards in cautious trading.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 23571 24073 23168 23312 -282
S & P 500 SPM18 2531.75 2590.25 2489.5 2504.75 -32.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6464 6601.5 6301 6352.5 -127.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25847 25935 25798 25919 103
Nikkei 225 NKH18 20985 21100 20805 20935 -170
FTSE 100 FTH18 6639 6723.5 6598 6613.5 -17
Gold GCJ18 1253.6 1261.9 1245.1 1246.4 -6.7
Silver SIK18 1470 1489 1460.5 1465 -4
Copper HGK18 265.45 271.9 265.4 267.5 2.3
Crude Oil CLK18 46.27 48.32 46.26 47.38 1.17
Wheat WK18 531.75 532 521.25 522.5 -9.75
Soybeans SK18 906.5 909.5 898.75 899.5 -7.75
Corn CK18 384.75 384.75 381.5 381.5 -3.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 22057 22613 22962 23518 23867 24423 24772
SPM18 2365.33 2427.42 2466.08 2528.17 2566.83 2628.92 2667.58
NDM18 5934.67 6117.83 6235.17 6418.33 6535.67 6718.83 6836.17
HSH18 25696 25747 25833 25884 25970 26021 26107
NKH18 20498 20652 20793 20947 21088 21242 21383
FTH18 6441.00 6519.50 6566.50 6645.00 6692.00 6770.50 6817.50
GCJ18 1223.57 1234.33 1240.37 1251.13 1257.17 1267.93 1273.97
SIK18 1425.50 1443.00 1454.00 1471.50 1482.50 1500.00 1511.00
HGK18 258.13 261.77 264.63 268.27 271.13 274.77 277.63
CLK18 44.26 45.26 46.32 47.32 48.38 49.38 50.44
WK18 507.75 514.50 518.50 525.25 529.25 536.00 540.00
SK18 884.92 891.83 895.67 902.58 906.42 913.33 917.17
CK18 377.17 379.33 380.42 382.58 383.67 385.83 386.92

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-20

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周三(12月19日)收跌,亚市盘中美元指数位于96.8附近做区间震荡,美市盘中美国公布 11月成屋销售年化总数(万户)公布值为532万户,高于前值522万户和市场预测的520万户,美元指数并没有因此受到提振,因中东传来消息,特朗普下令从叙利亚全面撤军。消息传来之后美元受到打压下跌,盘中最低来到96.56,紧接着美联储公布利率决定宣布加息25个基点,将联邦基金利率目标区间由原本的2.00-2.25%上调至2.25-2.50%,和市场预测相同,美元指数闻讯上涨盘中最高来到97.10,美元指数最终收在97.03。

现货黄金周三收跌,亚市早盘开于1249.20美元/金衡盎司后,金价位于1249.00美元/金衡盎司左右区间震荡,美市开盘受到美元指数下跌影响,资金纷纷流入黄金,盘中最高来到1257.75美元/金衡盎司,美市盘中美联储宣布加息,美元指数受到提振,黄金受到打压下跌,盘中最低来到1241.50美元/金衡盎司,黄金最终收在1242.85美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周三收涨1.15美元,或2.49%,报47.37美元/桶。美国能源信息署(EIA)周三公布报告显示,截至12月14日当周,美国原油库存减少49.7万桶,低于前值减少的120.8万桶,虽然美国原油库存报告整体利空,但美联储暗示明年加息次数将减少,从而帮助油价在18日大跌之后收复部分失地。

美国股市周三大幅下挫,此前尽管美联储预计明年可能放慢升息步伐,但投资者原本预期联储货币政策会更偏鸽派,鲍威尔在讲话表示,他认为美联储不会改变让资产负债表继续自动缩减的政策,这使投资者担心金融环境收紧将令金融市场进一步承压。道琼工业指数收挫351.98点,或1.49%,报23323.66点;标普500指数收跌39.2点,或1.54%,报2506.96点;那斯达克指数收低147.08点,或2.17%,报6636.83点。

个股方面,Facebook(FB)股价跌7.25%,为7月来最大百分比跌幅。纽约时报报导,该公司允许一些企业获得用户信息的程度超过披露情况,公司称,只有在使用者允许的情况下,其他企业才可以获得用户信息。联邦快递(FDX)股价重挫12.33%,创10年来最大单日跌幅,之前该公司调降2019年业绩预估。美光(MU)股价也大跌7.92%,之前该公司的温和财测加剧了对行业荣景消散的担忧。

日本股市周三下跌,因市场静待美国联邦公开市场委员会会议结果,加上19日正式挂牌上市的电信大厂软银没蜜月行情,首日表现惨,冲击投资人信心,也拖累日经225指数19日持续走跌、失守21000点整数关卡,终场跌0.60%或127.53点,收20987.92点。

个股方面,软银集团下挫0.91%,SBG旗下电信大厂软银19日正式挂牌,惟挂牌首日没出现蜜月行情。丰田汽车跌0.19%,丰田冲刺电动化车款销售,力拼2020年销售量增4成、占整体新车销售量比重约1/4。工具机厂DMG森精机大涨2.24%,美中贸易摩擦、导致中国工具机需求失速,森精机传出将首度把在中国生产的工具机出口至印度贩卖。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收跌,震荡交投于112.400一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格进一步考验112.100一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧指向113关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至1.14379一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能扩张,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑位看向1.13500一线。上行方面,价格阻力位进一步考验1.14200一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收跌,一度冲高至1.26774一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.25000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜冲高回落,一度触及日高至1257一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标拐头向下。后市来看,金价初步阻力位指向1250一线。下行方面,金价支撑位考验1236一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,低位交投于47一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向上脱离超卖区。后市来看,油价依旧考验46关口支撑力度。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向50.50一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续回落,盘中一度反弹至24064一线后跳水走低。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标进入超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24000关口。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23000一线。

 

NK_

 

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收跌,最低探至20525一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向下逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21200一线,下行支撑位看向20400一线。

 

19 12月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Wednesday, December 19, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23594 2537.00 6479.75
+0.95% +0.54% +0.93%

Stocks rebounded yesterday, recovering some of the steep losses of the prior trading session that sent both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 down more than 2 percent. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9 percent after falling to a new closing low and touching a new intraday low for 2018 on Monday on fears the Federal Reserve is going too far with its rate-hiking plans. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 300 points, led higher by gains in Boeing and Johnson & Johnson. A comeback in technology stocks led the NASDAQ to a 1.2 percent gain as Amazon, Apple and Netflix — which were hit hard on Monday — all traded higher. Facebook stock rallied 3.6 percent while Google-parent Alphabet added 3.1 percent. Also helping sentiment was White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders, who said that the Trump administration wants to avoid a partial government shutdown and has found alternative revenues to build President Donald Trump’s border wall. The Fed is widely expected to hike its benchmark lending rate for a fourth and final time of 2018.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 07:00 3.1% 3.3%

nov

U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) 09:30 2.3% 2.4%

oct

U.K House Price Index (YoY) 09:30 3.3% 3.5%

dec

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 12:00   1.6%

nov

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) 13:30 1.8% 2.4%

nov

U.S Existing Home Sales (MoM) 15:00 -0.4% 1.4%

dec

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 15:30   -1208k

dec

U.S FOMC Rate Decision 19:00 2.50% 2.25%

 

Fed’s Powell Holds Press Conference Following FOMC Decision 19:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.35%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Boeing Co, which rose 3.77% or 11.93 points to trade at 328.06 at the close. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added 2.08% or 3.49 points to end at 171.50 and Nike Inc. was up 1.79% or 1.25 points to 71.15 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Exxon Mobil Corp, which fell 2.76% or 2.04 points to trade at 72.00 at the close. Chevron Corp declined 2.41% or 2.71 points to end at 109.74 and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was down 1.98% or 5.10 points to 252.97.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 0.45%. The top performers were Biocept Inc. which rose 66.28% to 1.140, Marin Software Inc. which was up 30.07% to settle at 3.720 and Toughbuilt Industries Inc. which gained 22.04% to close at 1.55. The worst performers were Regulus Therapeutics Inc. which was down 24.09% to 1.040 in late trade, Dova Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 23.64% to settle at 6.88 and Champions Oncology Inc. which was down 23.04% to 7.3500 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices tumbled yesterday after reports of swelling inventories and forecasts that record U.S and Russian output will hit a market that may see weaker demand if global growth deteriorates as many expect. U.S crude oil fell $2.78, or 5.5 percent to trade at $47.10 a barrel. The session low was $46.97, its weakest since September 2017. World stock markets inched higher as investors looked ahead to whether the U.S Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates much further. Equity markets have had steep declines over the last two months. Investor confidence is deteriorating, with more fund managers expecting global growth to weaken over the next 12 months, the worst outlook in a decade, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s December investor survey showed. Britain’s largest oilfield restarted, increasing supply, the U.S government said output from shale would top 8 million barrels per day this year, and data suggested U.S. crude inventories would rise this week. Crude oil has slid more than 30 percent since early October.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose to a one-week high yesterday, helped by a weaker U.S dollar and a fall in global stock markets, but moves were limited as investors sought clarity on the path of U.S interest rates as concerns about a slowing global economy deepened. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,247.06 per ounce, having earlier touched its highest since Dec. 10 at $1,250.27, just short of a five-month peak of $1,250.55 hit last week. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,251.30 per ounce. There has been a slight increase in the minority view that the Fed might not raise rates, given the recent weakness in the equity markets. It would be quite a shock if they didn’t increase rates in this week’s meeting. Most of the attention will be on how many more interest rates rises there may be next year. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year at its two-day policy meeting ending today. But weak stock markets and slowing global growth may prompt the central bank to signal a slowdown in rate increases. We have seen quite a broad-based sell-off across many other markets, from equities to other commodity markets, and an increase in risk aversion. In that climate, gold is edging gradually higher towards a multi-months peak. World stock markets tumbled as fears about a slowing global economy gripped investors, while the dollar index slipped 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Gold tends to gain when interest rate hike expectations ease because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, in which it is priced. In euro terms, gold reached its highest since June at 1,100.57 euro an ounce. Gold, considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has risen more than 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. It is also set to post its biggest quarterly gains since March 2017. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent to $14.63.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures edged higher yesterday as the oilseed market awaited signs of further demand from China as part of a trade truce with Washington. Wheat eased after gaining ground on Monday while corn ticked upwards in cautious trading.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 23796 23947 23583 23594 -80
S & P 500 SPM18 2557 2577.5 2531 2537 -18.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6491.25 6577.25 6456.5 6479.75 -8
Hang Seng HSH18 25877 26188 25696 25816 -260
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21095 21265 21025 21105 -330
FTSE 100 FTH18 6668.5 6697.5 6616.5 6630.5 -32
Gold GCJ18 1249.5 1254.1 1248.8 1253.1 3.6
Silver SIK18 1472.5 1477.5 1466.5 1469 6
Copper HGK18 274.3 275.2 265.15 265.2 -9.1
Crude Oil CLK18 49.43 49.86 46.08 46.21 -3.22
Wheat WK18 533.25 535.75 529.5 532.25 -3
Soybeans SK18 903.5 911.75 902.75 907.25 3.5
Corn CK18 383.25 386 383 385 1.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23105 23344 23469 23708 23833 24072 24197
SPM18 2473.00 2502.00 2519.50 2548.50 2566.00 2595.00 2612.50
NDM18 6311.00 6383.75 6431.75 6504.50 6552.50 6625.25 6673.25
HSH18 25120 25408 25612 25900 26104 26392 26596
NKH18 20758 20892 20998 21132 21238 21372 21478
FTH18 6517.83 6567.17 6598.83 6648.17 6679.83 6729.17 6760.83
GCJ18 1244.60 1246.70 1249.90 1252.00 1255.20 1257.30 1260.50
SIK18 1453.50 1460.00 1464.50 1471.00 1475.50 1482.00 1486.50
HGK18 251.78 258.47 261.83 268.52 271.88 278.57 281.93
CLK18 41.13 43.60 44.91 47.38 48.69 51.16 52.47
WK18 523.00 526.25 529.25 532.50 535.50 538.75 541.75
SK18 893.75 898.25 902.75 907.25 911.75 916.25 920.75
CK18 380.33 381.67 383.33 384.67 386.33 387.67 389.33

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-19

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周二(12月18日)收跌,亚市盘中区间震荡,录得日内高点97.17。欧式盘中转跌,一路下滑,录得日内低点96.70后反转上涨。美市盘中因美联储将进行为期两日的利率会议,市场预期美联储将加息,使得美国总统特朗普再度呼吁美联储停止升息。数据方面,美国11月营建许可年化总数为132.8万户,高于前值126.5万户,显示房贷利率走高和劳动力收紧,限制房地产市场发展,且房地产市场的持续疲软可能是经济放缓的信号。数据公布后,美元指数持续上涨,最终报收97.06。

现货黄金周二收涨,亚市早盘开于1245.80美元/金衡盎司后,金价区间震荡,录得日内低点1244.80美元/金衡盎司后反弹,金价震荡上行。欧市盘中金价延续涨势,不断走高,录得日内高点1250.10美元/金衡盎司后回落。美市盘中金价再反弹,多头奋力上攻,终收于1249.20美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周二收跌2.90美元,或5.90%,报46.22美元/桶。美国和俄罗斯产量维持纪录高位,且虽然主要产油国可以协同进行减产,但各国最终都会以自身利益为主,令原油供应过剩的担忧日益加重。原油盘中录得日内低点46.10美元/桶,刷新2017年8月以来新低。

美国股市周二上涨,由于美墨边境兴建围墙预算问题僵持不下,导致美政府运作可能停摆、油价大幅下跌引发能源股抛售。道琼工业指数收高82.66点,或0.35%,报23675.64点;标普500指数收高0.22点,或0.01%,报2546.16点;那斯达克指数收涨30.18点,或0.45%,报6783.91点。

个股方面,亚马逊(AMZN)上涨2.01%;Netflix(NFLX)上涨3.10%;脸书(FB)股价上涨2.48%;Alphabet(GOOGL)上涨1.73%;苹果(AAPL)上涨1.30%;美国石油工业之王埃克森美孚(XOM)下跌2.76%,雪佛龙(CVX)下跌2.41%;IBM(IBM)上涨0.47%;美光(MU)上涨0.68%。

日本股市周二下跌,因美股17日重挫,加上中国在18日举行的改革开放40周年纪念日的演说上未提到如何化解中美冲突,拖累日经225指数18日重挫、创低,终场下挫1.82%或391.43点,收21115.45点。

个股方面,日本中小尺寸液晶面板大厂Japan Display Inc重挫3.49%,美中贸易摩擦影响JDI重建之路,传出若JDI引进陆资、苹果恐将拒用JDI液晶面板。日本武田药品工业暴跌8.95%,收购Shire恐让武田有息负债狂飙,穆迪大砍武田评等。FDK狂飙9.52%。FDK发表IoT用全固态电池,将在12月20日开始送样。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续收跌,最低探至112.247一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格进一步考验112.200一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格初步阻力位指向113关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收涨,一度探高至1.14000一线上方后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能扩张,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑位看向1.13000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.14000一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至1.27044一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减殆尽,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.25000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收涨,温和探高至1250一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市来看,金价阻力位进一步指向1252一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1244一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜延续下跌,最低探至46.10一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减殆尽,RSI指标超卖。后市来看,油价考验46关口支撑力度,跌破将打开更多下行空间。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向50.40一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投于23600一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24400一线。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23400一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜窄幅震荡,交投于21000关口附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21500一线,下行支撑位看向20800一线。

 

18 12月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Tuesday, December 18, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23674 2555.25 6487.75
-1.02% -1.16% -1.15%

Stocks sank yesterday as investors grew worried that the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates could be too much for the economy and stock market to handle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 250 points on the week’s first day of trading, with losses in UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson offsetting gains in Boeing and Apple. The S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent amid a 2.5 percent loss in utilities and a 1.7 percent loss in real estate investments. The Dow is now more than 11 percent off its 52-week high; the S&P 500 is 12 percent off its record high notched back in September. The tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 1 as Amazon fell 3.1 percent and Microsoft dropped 1.6 percent. All three major U.S indexes closed in correction territory for the first time since March 2016 in the prior trading session. Investors are also on edge ahead of the December meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking arm. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hike its benchmark overnight lending rate for a fourth and final time of 2018 this week.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook 00:00   7.6

dec

RBA Dec. Meeting Minutes 00:30    

dec

Switzerland SECO Dec. 2018 Economic Forecasts 06:45    

dec

German IFO Business Climate 09:00 101.7 102

dec

German IFO Expectations 09:00 98.3 98.7

dec

German IFO Current Assessment 09:00 104.9 105.4

nov

U.S Housing Starts (MoM) 13:30 0.2% 1.5%

nov

U.S Building Permits (MoM) 13:30 -0.4% -0.6%

nov

Japan Trade Balance 23:50 -¥630.0b -¥449.3b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.11% to hit a new 6-months low. The best performers of the session were The Travelers Companies Inc., which fell 0.51% or 0.62 points to trade at 119.93 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co fell 0.82% or 2.62 points to end at 316.13 and Apple Inc. was down 0.93% or 1.54 points to 163.94 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were American Express Company, which fell 4.28% or 4.52 points to trade at 101.18 at the close. Procter & Gamble Company declined 4.00% or 3.87 points to end at 92.77 and Nike Inc. was down 3.63% or 2.63 points to 69.90.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 2.27%. The top performers were Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 51.38% to 0.121, Riot Blockchain Inc. which was up 32.59% to settle at 1.7900 and Calyxt Inc. which gained 23.79% to close at 12.23. The worst performers were Sophiris Bio Inc. which was down 40.29% to 1.230 in late trade, Cancer Genetics Inc. which lost 40.04% to settle at 0.333 and Dova Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 39.16% to 9.01 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday on signs of oversupply in the United States and as investor sentiment remained under pressure from concern over the prospects for global economic growth and fuel demand. U.S light crude fell 88 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $50.32, after briefly dipping below $50 for the first time in two weeks. The contract hit a session high at $51.87 yesterday. U.S crude futures fell after inventories at the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma rose by more than 1 million barrels between Dec. 11 and Dec. 14, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. Traders and market participants closely watch supplies at the hub because it is the delivery point for the futures contract and underpins nearly all other regional crude grades. Some investors doubt planned supply cuts by OPEC and other producers such as Russia will be enough to rebalance markets. OPEC and its allies have agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January, in a move to be reviewed at a meeting in April.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose yesterday as a slide in the dollar made bullion more attractive for holders of other currencies, while some investors took cover as stocks globally slipped into the red ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. Palladium climbed to an all-time high of $1,269.50 on a prolonged deficit in the market and increased speculative interest, with prices trading at a premium to bullion. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,244.91 per ounce. The metal touched its lowest since Dec. 4 at $1,232.39 an ounce on Friday. U.S gold futures were 0.5 percent higher at $1,247.90 per ounce. The dollar slipped ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting ending on Wednesday. Investor focus will be on the central bank’s policy outlook for 2019 and future interest rate hikes. One of the drivers that is pushing gold higher right now is the flight to safety (due to lower equities), along with the dollar being sold-off a bit. Some traders are also positioning themselves so that if the Fed does not raise rates, gold might spike. Weak stock markets and slowing global growth have raised speculation that the Fed will need to pause its tightening cycle or risk harming the U.S economy. Stocks fell on concerns over global growth that sent world equity markets to 17-month lows last week. Markets were also concerned about a possible U.S. government shutdown. Investor sentiment toward gold showed signs of optimism. Speculators switched to a net long position in gold of 10,252 contracts, adding 11,791 contracts in the week to Dec. 11, data showed on Friday. This was the first time gold speculators have held a net long position since July, and the strongest since June. With increased volatility and geopolitical risk, macro asset allocation is becoming more gold-positive again, while we believe much of the dollar’s upward move is now behind us with rate hike expectations dropping. Silver was up 0.7 percent at $14.66 per ounce, while platinum rose 1.2 percent at $796.80 per ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures rebounded more than 1 percent in yesterday’s trading session after a sharp fall in the previous session, as a jump in prices in top exporter Russia improved U.S wheat’s competitiveness on world markets.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, December 17, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24016 24238 23474 23674 -449
S & P 500 SPM18 2594.75 2616.75 2533.5 2555.25 -49.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6598 6655.75 6422.75 6487.75 -133.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26151 26226 26006 26076 41
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21225 21490 21185 21435 120
FTSE 100 FTH18 6782.5 6787.5 6626 6662.5 -72.5
Gold GCJ18 1241.1 1251.9 1239.8 1249.5 8.7
Silver SIK18 1463 1463.5 1462.5 1463 0
Copper HGK18 275.3 275.9 272 274.3 -1.5
Crude Oil CLK18 51.25 51.84 48.99 49.13 -2.17
Wheat WK18 531 537.25 529.75 535.25 5.5
Soybeans SK18 903.25 909 901.75 903.75 3.75
Corn CK18 383.75 385.5 383 383.5 -0.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 22589 23031 23353 23795 24117 24559 24881
SPM18 2437.00 2485.25 2520.25 2568.50 2603.50 2651.75 2686.75
NDM18 6155.42 6289.08 6388.42 6522.08 6621.42 6755.08 6854.42
HSH18 25759 25883 25979 26103 26199 26323 26419
NKH18 20945 21065 21250 21370 21555 21675 21860
FTH18 6435.00 6530.50 6596.50 6692.00 6758.00 6853.50 6919.50
GCJ18 1230.13 1234.97 1242.23 1247.07 1254.33 1259.17 1266.43
SIK18 1461.50 1462.00 1462.50 1463.00 1463.50 1464.00 1464.50
HGK18 268.33 270.17 272.23 274.07 276.13 277.97 280.03
CLK18 45.28 47.14 48.13 49.99 50.98 52.84 53.83
WK18 523.42 526.58 530.92 534.08 538.42 541.58 545.92
SK18 893.42 897.58 900.67 904.83 907.92 912.08 915.17
CK18 380.00 381.50 382.50 384.00 385.00 386.50 387.50

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-18

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周一(12月17日)收跌,日内公布的数据较弱。数据显示,美国12月纽约联储制造业指数为10.9,远低于前值23.3和预期值20.2。美国12月NAHB房产市场指数为56,低于前值60和预期值61,因缺乏可建土地及建筑材料成本增加,使得房屋供给受到抑制,同时贷款成本也提高,减少了潜在的买家。数据公布后,并未对美元指数带来提振,反而持续下跌,录得日内低点97.05后,但在收盘前上涨,最终报收97.13。

现货黄金周一亚市早盘开于1238.70美元/金衡盎司后,金价短暂下挫,录得日内低点1235.50美元/金衡盎司后转涨,金价震荡上行。欧市金价延续涨势,不断走高。美市多头加大上攻力度,盘中出现直线拉升,录得日内高点1247.80美元/金衡盎司后回落,终收于1245.70美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周一收跌2.23美元,或4.34%,报49.12美元/桶。因市场担心经济增长速度加剧放缓,恐拖累原油的需求面表现,且市场对产油国能否严格执行减产还存在疑虑,使得油价承压下跌,不过美元指数大跌为油价带来了一定支撑。

美国股市周一下跌,由于市场越来越担心联准会(Fed)升息计划可能对经济和股市造成过大影响,推动S&P500指数创下年内新低。道琼工业指数收低507.53点,或2.11%,报23592.98点;标普500指数收跌54.01点,或2.08%,报2545.94点;纳斯达克指数收跌156.93点,或2.27%,报6753.73点。

个股方面,亚马逊(AMZN)下跌4.46%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌 1.51%;脸书(FB)股价下跌2.69%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.48%;苹果(AAPL)下跌 0.93%;美国银行(BAC)下跌0.04%;高盛(GS)下跌 2.72%;富国银行(WFC)上扬0.13%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌 1.35%。

日本股市周一上涨,因日经225指数14日暴跌逾400点,吸引低接买盘涌入,也提振日经指数17日反弹走扬,终场涨0.62%或132.05点,收21,506.88点。

个股方面,日本印刷电路板大厂CMK狂崩17.63%亮灯跌停,CMK 14日坦承,在未获得顾客端同意的情况下,为了赶交期,擅自变更制造工程、生产据点,甚或委由外部企业生产顾客所下的订单。CMK表示,上述不正当行为恐自十几年前就已开始。Sony跌0.27%、Panasonic跌0.41%。日本电视厂商明年OLED电视销售量有望首度突破100万台,Sony、Panasonic传出2019年对LGD所下的OLED面板订单较2018年飙增6成。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续收跌,下破113关口。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱显现,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格进一步考验112.400一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格初步阻力位指向113.100一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜反弹收涨,持稳1.13000一线上方。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能微增,RSI指标拐头向上。后市看来,价格支撑位依旧看向1.13000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位考验1.14000一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,小幅探高至1.26454一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.24700一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜大幅收涨,最高探至1247一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱温和,RSI指标拐头向上。后市来看,金价阻力位进一步指向1250一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1234一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜破位下跌,失守50关口。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标向下延伸。后市来看,油价支撑位进一步考验46一线。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向51.40一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续回落,刷新近期新低至23463一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24500一线。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23400一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收跌,一度反弹至21490一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下延伸。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21500一线,下行支撑位看向20900一线。

 

17 12月 2018

Daily Market View


Daily Market View

Monday, December 17, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24123 2605.00 6621.50
-2.02% -1.91% -2.26%

U.S stocks closed at their lowest level since April, with Treasuries rising alongside the yen, as mounting concern over the health of the global economy overshadowed positive trade developments and signs of strength from the American consumer. The S&P 500 Index tumbled 1.9 percent Friday, after testing February lows, erasing the week’s gains. Health-care and technology stocks were among the biggest decliners. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank almost 500 points, led by Johnson & Johnson’s biggest rout in years amid mounting legal peril. Retailers retreated even after monthly data indicated U.S. consumers are still spending. Oil and gold fell. The sour mood on Wall Street came after equities slumped from Asia to Europe on concern that Chinese growth is slowing. President Donald Trump attributed the latest data to his trade war, even suggesting a deal could come soon. Investors took little solace in that, and earlier signs that trade tension was easing didn’t do much to calm nerves. The Federal Reserve holds its final policy meeting of 2018 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

U.K Rightmove House Prices (YoY) 00:01    

dec

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits 09:00    

oct

Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) 10:00    

nov

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 10:00   2.2%

dec

Canada International Securities Transactions 13:30    

dec

U.S Empire Manufacturing 13:30    

nov

Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) 14:00    

dec

U.S NAHB Housing Market Index 15:00    

oct

U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows 21:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow fell sharply on Friday, ending the week on a bleak note and sending the index into correction territory after a batch of weaker-than-expected economic data out of China and Europe sparked fresh worries about the state of the world’s second-biggest economy and prospects for global growth. The Dow fell 496.87 points, or 2%, for its lowest close since May 3. The drop left the Dow more than 10% below its Oct. 3 record high, meeting the widely used definition of a correction. The blue-chip gauge joined the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ in correction territory. Fresh evidence that global trade tensions are hitting the world’s second-biggest economy emerged Friday.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ dropped 58.59 points, or 0.8%, marking its lowest close since Nov. 20. Shares of Costco Wholesale Corp. fell 8.6%, after a Thursday evening earnings release showed the retailer missed revenue expectations for the fiscal first quarter. Adobe Inc. stock fell more than 7%, after the software company missed earnings expectations for the fourth quarter. Retail sales rose 0.2% in November from the month previous, surpassing expectations of a 0.1% jump.

Oil

Oil traders will stay fixated on global growth prospects in the week ahead, after prices got hammered last week by worries that the ongoing U.S-China trade dispute will drag on global growth and, by extension, erode energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled $1.38, or roughly 2.6%, on Friday to settle at $51.20 a barrel by close of trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, WTI prices lost about 2.7%. With just about two weeks to the end of 2018, WTI remains down about 15% on the year and some 32% lower from four-year highs of nearly $77 per barrel hit in early October. Brent is down about 10% on the year and nearly 32% lower from four-year highs of nearly $87 per barrel hit two months ago. Fresh weekly data on U.S. commercial crude inventories to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer and whether output levels will continue to rise will capture the market’s attention this week.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eased for the second straight session to hit a one-week low on Friday as the dollar rose, putting the metal on track to post its biggest weekly fall in five ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Spot gold was 0.3 percent lower at $1,238.29 per ounce. Earlier in the session, prices hit their lowest since Dec. 6 at $1,236.80. The metal is down about 0.8 percent so far this week. U.S. gold futures were down 0.4 percent at $1,242.20 per ounce. The dollar gained as investors turned nervous about an economic slowdown in China and was further supported by weakness in the euro and pound. A firm dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. It seems to be a broader market sentiment as there is a drop across the precious complex. The dollar has strengthened and that’s being reflected in gold’s downward movement. Markets are awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18-19, where the U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year. The more interesting aspect would be what the indications are from the Fed for their plans for 2019 as we’ve seen a shift in market expectations on how much tightening we might see next year, so comments leading to that situation would be keenly watched. Gold has fallen around 9 percent since April, hit by rising U.S. interest rates and as investors chose the dollar as a safe haven rather than gold amid the U.S.-China trade dispute. Bullion is also on track to post an annual decline of about 5 percent, after rising for the previous two years. However, analysts are more optimistic on gold in 2019. Among other precious metals, spot palladium eased 1.2 percent to $1,245.30 per ounce, having hit an all-time high of $1,269.25 in the previous session. The metal was on track for its third week of gains, with prices up about 1.2 percent so far. Silver fell 1.1 percent to $14.60 per ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell on Friday for a second session as traders reacted to smaller-than-expected purchases this week by China coupled with ballooning global supplies. Corn futures firmed on prospects for China to start buying U.S supplies of the yellow grain, while wheat declined from a two-month high.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, December 14, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24607 24626 24054 24123 -450
S & P 500 SPM18 2649.25 2652.5 2597.25 2605 -42.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6774.25 6785.75 6608.5 6621.5 -152.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26208 26234 26016 26035 -492
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21625 21685 21270 21315 -475
FTSE 100 FTH18 6757.5 6801 6721.5 6735 -113
Gold GCJ18 1246 1247 1236.2 1240.8 -5.2
Silver SIK18 1481 1482.5 1454.5 1463 -19
Copper HGK18 276.75 277 272.8 275.8 -0.95
Crude Oil CLK18 52.78 52.91 50.81 51.3 -1.52
Wheat WK18 534.75 537.5 527.5 529.75 -5.75
Soybeans SK18 906.5 909.75 900 900 -6.5
Corn CK18 383.25 387 382.75 384.25 0.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23337 23696 23909 24268 24481 24840 25053
SPM18 2528.75 2563.00 2584.00 2618.25 2639.25 2673.50 2694.50
NDM18 6380.83 6494.67 6558.08 6671.92 6735.33 6849.17 6912.58
HSH18 25738 25877 25956 26095 26174 26313 26392
NKH18 20747 21008 21162 21423 21577 21838 21992
FTH18 6624.50 6673.00 6704.00 6752.50 6783.50 6832.00 6863.00
GCJ18 1224.87 1230.53 1235.67 1241.33 1246.47 1252.13 1257.27
SIK18 1422.83 1438.67 1450.83 1466.67 1478.83 1494.67 1506.83
HGK18 269.20 271.00 273.40 275.20 277.60 279.40 281.80
CLK18 48.34 49.57 50.44 51.67 52.54 53.77 54.64
WK18 515.67 521.58 525.67 531.58 535.67 541.58 545.67
SK18 887.00 893.50 896.75 903.25 906.50 913.00 916.25
CK18 378.08 380.42 382.33 384.67 386.58 388.92 390.83

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-17

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周五(12月14日)收涨,日内公布的数据喜忧参半。数据显示,美国11月零售销售月率为0.2%,低于前值0.8%;美国11月核心零售销售月率为0.2%,低于前值0.7%,显示美国11月消费者支出动能似乎增强,可能进一步缓解市场对经济放缓的担忧。美国11月工业产出月率为0.6%,高于前值0.1%和预期值0.3%,显示美国11月工业产出月率上涨0.6%,此数据强劲增长掩盖制造业数据持平的事实。美国12月Markit服务业采购经理人指数初值为53.4,低于前值54.7和预期值54.6;制造业PMI初值为53.9,低于前值55.3和预期值55.0,显示尽管经济增速保持相对稳健,进入2019年以后,动能正将有所损失,并很可能会消退。数据公布后,美元指数最高触及97.71,但在收盘前回落,最终报收97.45。

现货黄金周五亚市早盘开于1241.80美元/金衡盎司后,金价震荡上涨,录得日内高点1242.80美元/金衡盎司后转跌,金价震荡下行。欧市延续跌势,先转入盘整后再度下挫。美市盘中出现大幅抛压,金价跳水,录得日内低点1232.55美元/金衡盎司后,多头反攻,金价震荡上行,终收于1238.00美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周五收跌1.49美元,或2.82%,报51.35美元/桶。由于悲观情绪蔓延,因此在原油供应量出现实质性下降前,油价的任何反弹都可能触发获利了结或是多头回补,使得油价暂时很难出现实质性上涨。

美国股市周五下跌,由于担心全球经济增长放缓,美股金融股受银行股拖累,加入了能源股和材料股的熊市行列。中国消费和工业生产数据放缓后,尽管美国零售销售强劲,经济学家将美国第四季经济增长预期上调至3%,但美股依旧大跌。道琼工业指数收低496.87点,或2.02%,报24,100.51点;标普500指数收跌50.59点,或1.91%,报2,599.95点;纳斯达克指数收挫159.67点,或2.26%,报6,910.66点。

个股方面,脸书(FB)下跌0.66%。亚马逊(AMZN)领跌,跌幅达4.01%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌3.33%;苹果(AAPL)下跌3.20%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.03%,美国医疗保健大厂「娇生」周五传出早在47年前就知道婴儿爽身粉中含致癌石绵(Asbestos),受此消息拖累,娇生(JNJ) 惨跌10.04%。

日本股市周五下跌,因日经225指数12月12-13日飙涨约670点,加上市场静待美国即将公布的经济数据,引发了结获利的卖压涌现,拖累日经225指数14日以低盘开出后、指数跌幅就一路扩大,开低走低,终场重挫2.02%或441.36点,收21,374.83点。

个股方面,Sony下跌1.66%,降价活动奏功,Sony PS4游戏机上周日本销售量飙增4.4倍、创10个月高,不过仍不敌任天堂Switch游戏机。日本邮政传出将出资3,000亿日元、取得美国寿险公司Aflac 7-8%股权,且最终有望成为最大股东。于日本挂牌的Aflac飙涨4.93%、日本邮政跌1.08%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,最低探至113.205一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱萎靡,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格关键支撑考验113关口。上行方面,价格初步阻力位指向113.800一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低触及1.12686一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能缩减殆尽,双线死叉,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格支撑位进一步下看1.12000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力位考验1.13500一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低探至1.25281一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.24800一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.27000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜延续回落,最低触及1232一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下延伸。后市来看,金价阻力位指向1249一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1230一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜回落收跌,基本回吐前一交易日升幅。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标向下。后市来看,油价依旧考验50关口支撑力度。上行方面,油价阻力位看向53.70一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜回落收跌,回撤至24000关口附近寻求支撑。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24700一线。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23800一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜收跌,最低探至21180一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21800一线,下行支撑位看向21000关口。

 

 

14 12月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Friday, December 14, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24573 2647.75 6774.00
-0.04% -0.40% -0.77%

U.S stocks gave back most of their morning gains as of midday yesterday as investors continue to digest headlines surrounding the potential for a U.S-China trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3 points, or less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 index fell 6 points or 0.1%. The NASDAQ traded down 47 points, or 0.7%. At session highs early yesterday, the Dow was up 214 points, the S&P 15 points, while the NASDAQ briefly traded up 56 points. U.S.-China trade concerns remained at fore of investor minds, as they continue to digest headlines from earlier in the week that suggested the Chinese were ready to make significant concessions to their industrial policy and reduce tariffs on imported autos, while President Trump indicated he would intervene in the arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou if it would help ensure a trade deal with China. The perception of progress was tempered by news late Wednesday that China had arrested a second Canadian diplomat in apparent retaliation for Meng’s arrest.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

Summit of EU Leaders      

dec

Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing 00:30   52.2

nov

China Retail Sales (YoY) 02:00 8.8% 8.6%

oct

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) 04:30   4.2%

dec

Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI 08:30 51.7 51.8

dec

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 09:00 51.8 51.8

nov

U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) 13:30 0.1% 0.8%

nov

U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production 14:15 0.3% 0.3%

dec

Markit US Manufacturing PMI 14:45 55.1 55.3
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Procter & Gamble Company, which rose 2.62% or 2.46 points to trade at 96.49 at the close. Meanwhile, McDonald’s Corporation added 1.61% or 2.95 points to end at 186.43 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 1.28% or 1.00 points to 79.01 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 1.87% or 1.39 points to trade at 72.93 at the close. DowDuPont Inc. declined 1.05% or 0.57 points to end at 53.78 and American Express Company was down 0.73% or 0.78 points to 106.70.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 0.39%. The top performers were Adial Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 104.93% to 4.16, Cancer Genetics Inc. which was up 55.32% at 0.365 and Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc. which gained 22.86% to close at 0.430. The worst performers were Applied Genetic which was down 47.10% to 3.47 in late trade, CounterPath Corp which lost 22.53% to settle at 1.410 and LogicBio Therapeutics Inc. which was down 21.77% to 9.70 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose yesterday, after data showed inventory declines in the United States and as investors began to expect that the global oil market could have a deficit sooner than they had previously thought. OPEC’s output agreement with Russia and Canada’s decision to mandate production cuts could create an oil market supply deficit by the second quarter of next year, if the top producers stick to their deal, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report. U.S crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S crude futures, fell by nearly 822,000 barrels in the week through Dec. 11, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. Stockpiles fell by 1.2 million barrels in the week to Dec. 7, disappointing some investors who had expected a decrease of 3 million barrels. The data showed stockpiles jumping by 1.1 million barrels in Cushing during that week. U.S West Texas Intermediate light crude rose 86 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $52.01.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eased to its lowest in nearly one week yesterday as the dollar rose and investors latched on to gains in global stocks, while palladium touched record highs on expectations of higher demand. Spot gold eased 0.2 percent to $1,243.27 per ounce, while U.S gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,247.50 per ounce. The dollar gained against a basket of major currencies, helped by a dip in the euro after the European Central Bank reduced growth and inflation projections for next year and said the balance of risk was tilted toward the downside. It looks like ECB President Mario Draghi was a little more dovish than expected, so we are seeing the euro currency back off and the dollar strengthening, and this is weighing on gold prices. Also weighing on bullion was an upbeat sentiment for risk, with global stock markets receiving a boost on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. With equities rebounding this week, gold has fallen slightly out of favor as traders unwound their safe-haven bets. Markets would now be turning their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18-19, with the focus on the future path of interest rate hikes in 2019. If the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, we should see the dollar quickly retreat and that should give gold an opportunity to rally. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making it cheaper for holders of other currencies. Gold’s recent breakout above the $1,240 resistance means the path of least resistance is still to the upside and it should get a lift if the dollar were to fall on the back of a dovish Fed. Among other precious metals, spot palladium was down 0.7 percent at $1,253.24 per ounce. Silver was steady at $14.73 per ounce, having hit $14.81 earlier, its highest since Nov. 2. Platinum fell 0.6 percent to $793.60.

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell to a one-week low yesterday as confirmation of a 1.13 million-tonnes U.S soybean sale to China failed to impress traders who are shifting their focus to burdensome U.S and global supplies. Wheat futures neared a two-month top, supported by signs of rising global prices, while corn futures were little changed.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, December 13, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24591 24768 24499 24573 18
S & P 500 SPM18 2657.5 2675 2641 2647.75 -3.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6799.75 6864 6748.75 6774 8.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26384 26621 26308 26527 294
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21610 21800 21600 21790 170
FTSE 100 FTH18 6886 6911 6846 6848 -3.5
Gold GCJ18 1250.7 1251.4 1244.1 1246 -4.4
Silver SIK18 1483 1488.5 1475.5 1482 -0.5
Copper HGK18 276.7 280.35 276.3 276.75 0.4
Crude Oil CLK18 51.16 53.23 50.32 52.82 1.66
Wheat WK18 528.25 538.25 527 535.5 9.5
Soybeans SK18 918.5 919.5 904.75 906.5 -13
Corn CK18 384 385.75 382.25 383.75 -1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24190 24344 24459 24613 24728 24882 24997
SPM18 2600.17 2620.58 2634.17 2654.58 2668.17 2688.58 2702.17
NDM18 6611.92 6680.33 6727.17 6795.58 6842.42 6910.83 6957.67
HSH18 26037 26172 26350 26485 26663 26798 26976
NKH18 21460 21530 21660 21730 21860 21930 22060
FTH18 6760.67 6803.33 6825.67 6868.33 6890.67 6933.33 6955.67
GCJ18 1235.63 1239.87 1242.93 1247.17 1250.23 1254.47 1257.53
SIK18 1462.50 1469.00 1475.50 1482.00 1488.50 1495.00 1501.50
HGK18 271.20 273.75 275.25 277.80 279.30 281.85 283.35
CLK18 48.11 49.21 51.02 52.12 53.93 55.03 56.84
WK18 517.67 522.33 528.92 533.58 540.17 544.83 551.42
SK18 886.25 895.50 901.00 910.25 915.75 925.00 930.50
CK18 378.58 380.42 382.08 383.92 385.58 387.42 389.08

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-14

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周四(12月13日)收涨,欧市盘中欧洲央行宣布利率维持不变,使得欧元应声下滑,美元趁机攀升。美市盘中日内公布的上周初请失业救济金人数为20.6万人,低于前值23.1万人,及预期值22.5万人,为美元指数上涨带来助力,录得日内高点97.29。但在收盘前回落,收回日内涨幅,最终报收97.09。

现货黄金周四亚市早盘开于1245.30美元/金衡盎司后,金价区间震荡,录得日内高点1246.50美元/金衡盎司后转跌。欧市金价转入盘整后再度下挫,盘中出现大幅抛压,金价跳水。美市多头反攻多空激烈交战,振幅加大,录得日内低点1239.90美元/金衡盎司后盘整,终收于1241.90美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油收涨1.67美元,或3.26%,报52.84美元/桶。国际能源署(IEA)表示,鉴于伊朗和委内瑞拉等国的产量下滑,石油输出国组织(OPEC)的实际减产幅度可能是计划中的两倍,且中美贸易谈话透露出利好迹象,使得风险情绪好转,为油价提供有效支撑。但欧洲央行宣布维持利率不变,使得欧元应声下滑,美元指数趁机攀升,限制了油价的上行空间。

美国股市周四涨跌不一,其中公用事业、石油和天然气和生活消费品等上涨的板块带领股指走高;与此同时,基础材料、电信和消费服务板块等下跌的使股指走低。道琼工业指数上涨70.11点,或0.29%,报24,597.38点;标普500指数收跌0.53点或0.02%,报2,650.54点;纳斯达克指数收跌27.98点,或0.39%,报7,070.33点。

个股方面,Netflix(NFLX)上涨0.41%;脸书(FB)股价上涨0.35%;亚马逊(AMZN)下跌0.31%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌0.02%;苹果(AAPL)上涨 1.09%;美国银行(BAC)下跌0.53%;高盛(GS)下跌0.46%;富国银行(WFC)下跌 1.49%;摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.10%。

日本股市周四上涨,因中美贸易谈判有进展,海运、钢铁等今年来跌幅颇大的景气敏感类股大涨,也激励日经225指数13日持续走扬,终场涨0.99%或213.44点,收21,816.19点。

个股方面,新日铁住金大涨2.13%、JFE Holdings劲扬1.79%、商船三井大涨2.05%、日本邮船劲扬1.64%。软银下挫1.30%。软银传出将舍弃华为,计划将华为等中国制基地台自现行的4G设备中移除、更换成欧厂产品,且5G基地台也将向欧厂下单。任天堂上扬0.46%,新游戏软件「任天堂明星大乱斗 特别版」夯爆,Switch日本销量飙增1.6倍,累计销售量突破600万台、破600万台的速度比PS4快上一倍。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜温和收涨,最高探至113.694一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验113.200一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧指向113.900一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜震荡微跌,交投于1.13600一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能微缩,RSI指标走平。后市看来,价格支撑位看向1.13000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位考验1.14000一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,小幅探高至1.26856一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.26000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收跌,温和回撤至1239一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价阻力位指向1253一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1230一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜反弹收涨,最低触及50.34一线后走高。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上。后市来看,油价依旧考验50关口支撑力度。上行方面,油价阻力位进一步看向53.80一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜基本收平,震荡交投于24560一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标走平。后市来看,价格关键阻力位依旧考验25000关口。下行方面,价格支撑位下看24200一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜低开收涨,最高探至21845一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格阻力位考验22100一线,下行支撑位看向21000关口。