市场报告                     2018-12-20

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周三(12月19日)收跌,亚市盘中美元指数位于96.8附近做区间震荡,美市盘中美国公布 11月成屋销售年化总数(万户)公布值为532万户,高于前值522万户和市场预测的520万户,美元指数并没有因此受到提振,因中东传来消息,特朗普下令从叙利亚全面撤军。消息传来之后美元受到打压下跌,盘中最低来到96.56,紧接着美联储公布利率决定宣布加息25个基点,将联邦基金利率目标区间由原本的2.00-2.25%上调至2.25-2.50%,和市场预测相同,美元指数闻讯上涨盘中最高来到97.10,美元指数最终收在97.03。

现货黄金周三收跌,亚市早盘开于1249.20美元/金衡盎司后,金价位于1249.00美元/金衡盎司左右区间震荡,美市开盘受到美元指数下跌影响,资金纷纷流入黄金,盘中最高来到1257.75美元/金衡盎司,美市盘中美联储宣布加息,美元指数受到提振,黄金受到打压下跌,盘中最低来到1241.50美元/金衡盎司,黄金最终收在1242.85美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周三收涨1.15美元,或2.49%,报47.37美元/桶。美国能源信息署(EIA)周三公布报告显示,截至12月14日当周,美国原油库存减少49.7万桶,低于前值减少的120.8万桶,虽然美国原油库存报告整体利空,但美联储暗示明年加息次数将减少,从而帮助油价在18日大跌之后收复部分失地。

美国股市周三大幅下挫,此前尽管美联储预计明年可能放慢升息步伐,但投资者原本预期联储货币政策会更偏鸽派,鲍威尔在讲话表示,他认为美联储不会改变让资产负债表继续自动缩减的政策,这使投资者担心金融环境收紧将令金融市场进一步承压。道琼工业指数收挫351.98点,或1.49%,报23323.66点;标普500指数收跌39.2点,或1.54%,报2506.96点;那斯达克指数收低147.08点,或2.17%,报6636.83点。

个股方面,Facebook(FB)股价跌7.25%,为7月来最大百分比跌幅。纽约时报报导,该公司允许一些企业获得用户信息的程度超过披露情况,公司称,只有在使用者允许的情况下,其他企业才可以获得用户信息。联邦快递(FDX)股价重挫12.33%,创10年来最大单日跌幅,之前该公司调降2019年业绩预估。美光(MU)股价也大跌7.92%,之前该公司的温和财测加剧了对行业荣景消散的担忧。

日本股市周三下跌,因市场静待美国联邦公开市场委员会会议结果,加上19日正式挂牌上市的电信大厂软银没蜜月行情,首日表现惨,冲击投资人信心,也拖累日经225指数19日持续走跌、失守21000点整数关卡,终场跌0.60%或127.53点,收20987.92点。

个股方面,软银集团下挫0.91%,SBG旗下电信大厂软银19日正式挂牌,惟挂牌首日没出现蜜月行情。丰田汽车跌0.19%,丰田冲刺电动化车款销售,力拼2020年销售量增4成、占整体新车销售量比重约1/4。工具机厂DMG森精机大涨2.24%,美中贸易摩擦、导致中国工具机需求失速,森精机传出将首度把在中国生产的工具机出口至印度贩卖。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收跌,震荡交投于112.400一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格进一步考验112.100一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧指向113关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至1.14379一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能扩张,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑位看向1.13500一线。上行方面,价格阻力位进一步考验1.14200一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收跌,一度冲高至1.26774一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.25000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜冲高回落,一度触及日高至1257一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标拐头向下。后市来看,金价初步阻力位指向1250一线。下行方面,金价支撑位考验1236一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,低位交投于47一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向上脱离超卖区。后市来看,油价依旧考验46关口支撑力度。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向50.50一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续回落,盘中一度反弹至24064一线后跳水走低。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标进入超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24000关口。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23000一线。

 

NK_

 

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收跌,最低探至20525一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向下逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21200一线,下行支撑位看向20400一线。

 

19 12月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 19, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar slid lower against a currency basket ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting

·      The Japanese Yen remained supported amid concerns over the outlook for global growth

·      The pound was higher amid an ongoing political deadlock over Britain’s efforts to exit the EU

·      Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz left the door open to a slower pace of interest rate hikes

 

 

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday as investors waited for news from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.14% to 96.41, after an overnight high of 96.63. With the Fed expected to increase rates by 25 basis points for the fourth time this year today, investors will be watching for any new comments on possible policy changes in 2019. Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, have said interest rates are nearing neutral and have become more cautious about FOMC tightening policy amid worry of slowing global growth. U.S. President Donald Trump’s critical comments on the Fed did not help the dollar’s cause either. In a tweet overnight, Trump took another swipe at the Fed, saying it was “incredible” for the central bank to even consider tightening policy given the global economic and political uncertainties. While the Fed remaining on hold would be a significant surprise and a significant U.S Dollar-negative, there is little doubt that equity market volatility is creating some headaches for policymakers. Osborne noted that Fed rate hike expectations have slipped, with markets now pricing in a 70 percent chance of a rate increase, down from a 78 percent chance on Monday. Investor confidence has deteriorated, leading to the gloomiest outlook for the world economy in a decade. The Dollar has replaced technology stocks as the most crowded trade for the first time since January. Risk-off sentiment yesterday lifted the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Yen traders are also focusing on the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Dec. 19-20, at which it is widely expected to keep policy ultra-loose as inflation remains well below its target. The Pound Sterling continues to move off of the recently struck 20-month trough after it was confirmed that the Prime Minister will ask for the British Parliament to approve her latest Brexit proposal next month. The Canadian Dollar fell against the U.S Dollar yesterday.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
07:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Low   3.1% 3.3%
09:30 U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   2.3% 2.4%
09:30 U.K Retail Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Low   3.2% 3.3%
09:30 U.K House Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium   3.3% 3.5%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (DEC 14) Medium     1.6%
13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   1.8% 2.4%
15:00 U.S Existing Home Sales (MoM) (NOV) Medium   -0.4% 1.4%
15:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (DEC 14) Medium     -1208k
19:00 U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (DEC 19) High   2.50% 2.25%
19:00 U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (DEC 19) High   2.25% 2.00%
19:00 U.S Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (DEC 20) High   2.40% 2.20%
19:30 Fed’s Powell Holds Press Conference Following FOMC Decision Medium      
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance (NOV) Medium   -880m -1295m
21:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High   2.8% 2.8%

Euro

The single currency rose yesterday as the dollar weakened, with investors betting that growth concerns will prompt the Fed to slow its pace of interest rate hikes at this week’s meeting. A rout on Wall Street following a spate of weak data globally has strengthened the view that the Fed’s widely-expected rate hike today will usher in a slowdown. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1335 and a high of 1.1401 before closing the day around 1.1359 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair remained heavily offered through the European session yesterday and tumbled to over one-week lows in the last hour. A combination of negative forces kept exerting downward pressure for the third consecutive session. The concerns were evident from the recent fall in the US Treasury bond yields. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.23 and a high of 112.84 before closing the day around 112.50 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound continues to move off of the recently struck 20-month trough after it was confirmed that the Prime Minister will ask for the British Parliament to approve her latest Brexit proposal next month. Analysts caution that Theresa May will be fighting the fight of her life in order to get her deal through to find the backing of members from her own party. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2608 and a high of 1.2703 before closing the day at 1.2638 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar steadied against its U.S counterpart yesterday, underperforming other G10 currencies as oil prices fell and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz left the door open to a slower pace of interest rate hikes. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell to its lowest since September of last year after reports of swelling inventories. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3387 and a high of 1.3494 before closing the day at 1.3462 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained earlier in yesterday’s trading session but reversed almost all the gains to end the day slightly lower. Australian Dollar has been put on the defensive by worries about slowing growth in China. The currency had been sideswiped by disappointing Chinese economic data, which in turn rippled through markets globally sending stocks sharply lower. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7164 and a high of 0.7201 before closing the day at 0.7166 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.16%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.25%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.05%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.13%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 18, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13463 1.14011 1.1335 1.13595 0.0013
USD/JPY 112.819 112.842 112.231 112.508 -0.3050
GBP/USD 1.26188 1.27039 1.2608 1.2638 0.0017
USD/CHF 0.99284 0.99357 0.98978 0.99252 -0.0002
USD/CAD 1.3405 1.34944 1.3387 1.34628 0.0059
EUR/JPY 128.025 128.09 127.619 127.808 -0.2060
GBP/JPY 142.348 142.63 141.907 142.197 -0.1420
CHF/JPY 113.596 113.648 113.231 113.318 -0.2720
AUD/JPY 80.963 81.176 80.633 80.751 -0.2040
EUR/GBP 0.89888 0.9009 0.89612 0.89869 -0.0005
EUR/CHF 1.12668 1.12947 1.2582 1.1277 0.0012
GBP/CHF 1.25292 1.25851 1.25159 1.25448 0.0016

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1263 1.1299 1.1329 1.1365 1.1395 1.1431 1.1462
USD/JPY 111.60 111.92 112.21 112.53 112.82 113.14 113.43
GBP/USD 1.2500 1.2554 1.2596 1.2650 1.2692 1.2746 1.2788
USD/CHF 0.9866 0.9882 0.9903 0.9920 0.9941 0.9957 0.9979
USD/CAD 1.3294 1.3341 1.3402 1.3448 1.3509 1.3555 1.3617
EUR/JPY 127.12 127.37 127.59 127.84 128.06 128.31 128.53
GBP/JPY 141.14 141.52 141.86 142.24 142.58 142.97 143.31
CHF/JPY 112.73 112.98 113.15 113.40 113.57 113.82 113.98
AUD/JPY 79.99 80.31 80.53 80.85 81.07 81.40 81.62
EUR/GBP 0.8915 0.8938 0.8962 0.8986 0.9010 0.9034 0.9058
EUR/CHF 1.3428 1.3005 1.2141 1.1718 1.0854 1.0431 0.9567
GBP/CHF 1.2443 1.2479 1.2512 1.2549 1.2581 1.2618 1.2651

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-19

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周二(12月18日)收跌,亚市盘中区间震荡,录得日内高点97.17。欧式盘中转跌,一路下滑,录得日内低点96.70后反转上涨。美市盘中因美联储将进行为期两日的利率会议,市场预期美联储将加息,使得美国总统特朗普再度呼吁美联储停止升息。数据方面,美国11月营建许可年化总数为132.8万户,高于前值126.5万户,显示房贷利率走高和劳动力收紧,限制房地产市场发展,且房地产市场的持续疲软可能是经济放缓的信号。数据公布后,美元指数持续上涨,最终报收97.06。

现货黄金周二收涨,亚市早盘开于1245.80美元/金衡盎司后,金价区间震荡,录得日内低点1244.80美元/金衡盎司后反弹,金价震荡上行。欧市盘中金价延续涨势,不断走高,录得日内高点1250.10美元/金衡盎司后回落。美市盘中金价再反弹,多头奋力上攻,终收于1249.20美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周二收跌2.90美元,或5.90%,报46.22美元/桶。美国和俄罗斯产量维持纪录高位,且虽然主要产油国可以协同进行减产,但各国最终都会以自身利益为主,令原油供应过剩的担忧日益加重。原油盘中录得日内低点46.10美元/桶,刷新2017年8月以来新低。

美国股市周二上涨,由于美墨边境兴建围墙预算问题僵持不下,导致美政府运作可能停摆、油价大幅下跌引发能源股抛售。道琼工业指数收高82.66点,或0.35%,报23675.64点;标普500指数收高0.22点,或0.01%,报2546.16点;那斯达克指数收涨30.18点,或0.45%,报6783.91点。

个股方面,亚马逊(AMZN)上涨2.01%;Netflix(NFLX)上涨3.10%;脸书(FB)股价上涨2.48%;Alphabet(GOOGL)上涨1.73%;苹果(AAPL)上涨1.30%;美国石油工业之王埃克森美孚(XOM)下跌2.76%,雪佛龙(CVX)下跌2.41%;IBM(IBM)上涨0.47%;美光(MU)上涨0.68%。

日本股市周二下跌,因美股17日重挫,加上中国在18日举行的改革开放40周年纪念日的演说上未提到如何化解中美冲突,拖累日经225指数18日重挫、创低,终场下挫1.82%或391.43点,收21115.45点。

个股方面,日本中小尺寸液晶面板大厂Japan Display Inc重挫3.49%,美中贸易摩擦影响JDI重建之路,传出若JDI引进陆资、苹果恐将拒用JDI液晶面板。日本武田药品工业暴跌8.95%,收购Shire恐让武田有息负债狂飙,穆迪大砍武田评等。FDK狂飙9.52%。FDK发表IoT用全固态电池,将在12月20日开始送样。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续收跌,最低探至112.247一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格进一步考验112.200一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格初步阻力位指向113关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收涨,一度探高至1.14000一线上方后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能扩张,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑位看向1.13000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.14000一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至1.27044一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减殆尽,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.25000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收涨,温和探高至1250一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市来看,金价阻力位进一步指向1252一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1244一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜延续下跌,最低探至46.10一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减殆尽,RSI指标超卖。后市来看,油价考验46关口支撑力度,跌破将打开更多下行空间。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向50.40一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投于23600一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24400一线。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23400一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜窄幅震荡,交投于21000关口附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21500一线,下行支撑位看向20800一线。

 

市场报告                     2018-12-18

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周一(12月17日)收跌,日内公布的数据较弱。数据显示,美国12月纽约联储制造业指数为10.9,远低于前值23.3和预期值20.2。美国12月NAHB房产市场指数为56,低于前值60和预期值61,因缺乏可建土地及建筑材料成本增加,使得房屋供给受到抑制,同时贷款成本也提高,减少了潜在的买家。数据公布后,并未对美元指数带来提振,反而持续下跌,录得日内低点97.05后,但在收盘前上涨,最终报收97.13。

现货黄金周一亚市早盘开于1238.70美元/金衡盎司后,金价短暂下挫,录得日内低点1235.50美元/金衡盎司后转涨,金价震荡上行。欧市金价延续涨势,不断走高。美市多头加大上攻力度,盘中出现直线拉升,录得日内高点1247.80美元/金衡盎司后回落,终收于1245.70美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周一收跌2.23美元,或4.34%,报49.12美元/桶。因市场担心经济增长速度加剧放缓,恐拖累原油的需求面表现,且市场对产油国能否严格执行减产还存在疑虑,使得油价承压下跌,不过美元指数大跌为油价带来了一定支撑。

美国股市周一下跌,由于市场越来越担心联准会(Fed)升息计划可能对经济和股市造成过大影响,推动S&P500指数创下年内新低。道琼工业指数收低507.53点,或2.11%,报23592.98点;标普500指数收跌54.01点,或2.08%,报2545.94点;纳斯达克指数收跌156.93点,或2.27%,报6753.73点。

个股方面,亚马逊(AMZN)下跌4.46%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌 1.51%;脸书(FB)股价下跌2.69%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.48%;苹果(AAPL)下跌 0.93%;美国银行(BAC)下跌0.04%;高盛(GS)下跌 2.72%;富国银行(WFC)上扬0.13%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌 1.35%。

日本股市周一上涨,因日经225指数14日暴跌逾400点,吸引低接买盘涌入,也提振日经指数17日反弹走扬,终场涨0.62%或132.05点,收21,506.88点。

个股方面,日本印刷电路板大厂CMK狂崩17.63%亮灯跌停,CMK 14日坦承,在未获得顾客端同意的情况下,为了赶交期,擅自变更制造工程、生产据点,甚或委由外部企业生产顾客所下的订单。CMK表示,上述不正当行为恐自十几年前就已开始。Sony跌0.27%、Panasonic跌0.41%。日本电视厂商明年OLED电视销售量有望首度突破100万台,Sony、Panasonic传出2019年对LGD所下的OLED面板订单较2018年飙增6成。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续收跌,下破113关口。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱显现,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格进一步考验112.400一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格初步阻力位指向113.100一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜反弹收涨,持稳1.13000一线上方。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能微增,RSI指标拐头向上。后市看来,价格支撑位依旧看向1.13000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位考验1.14000一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,小幅探高至1.26454一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.24700一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜大幅收涨,最高探至1247一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱温和,RSI指标拐头向上。后市来看,金价阻力位进一步指向1250一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1234一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜破位下跌,失守50关口。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标向下延伸。后市来看,油价支撑位进一步考验46一线。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向51.40一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续回落,刷新近期新低至23463一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24500一线。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23400一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收跌,一度反弹至21490一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下延伸。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21500一线,下行支撑位看向20900一线。

 

市场报告                     2018-12-17

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周五(12月14日)收涨,日内公布的数据喜忧参半。数据显示,美国11月零售销售月率为0.2%,低于前值0.8%;美国11月核心零售销售月率为0.2%,低于前值0.7%,显示美国11月消费者支出动能似乎增强,可能进一步缓解市场对经济放缓的担忧。美国11月工业产出月率为0.6%,高于前值0.1%和预期值0.3%,显示美国11月工业产出月率上涨0.6%,此数据强劲增长掩盖制造业数据持平的事实。美国12月Markit服务业采购经理人指数初值为53.4,低于前值54.7和预期值54.6;制造业PMI初值为53.9,低于前值55.3和预期值55.0,显示尽管经济增速保持相对稳健,进入2019年以后,动能正将有所损失,并很可能会消退。数据公布后,美元指数最高触及97.71,但在收盘前回落,最终报收97.45。

现货黄金周五亚市早盘开于1241.80美元/金衡盎司后,金价震荡上涨,录得日内高点1242.80美元/金衡盎司后转跌,金价震荡下行。欧市延续跌势,先转入盘整后再度下挫。美市盘中出现大幅抛压,金价跳水,录得日内低点1232.55美元/金衡盎司后,多头反攻,金价震荡上行,终收于1238.00美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周五收跌1.49美元,或2.82%,报51.35美元/桶。由于悲观情绪蔓延,因此在原油供应量出现实质性下降前,油价的任何反弹都可能触发获利了结或是多头回补,使得油价暂时很难出现实质性上涨。

美国股市周五下跌,由于担心全球经济增长放缓,美股金融股受银行股拖累,加入了能源股和材料股的熊市行列。中国消费和工业生产数据放缓后,尽管美国零售销售强劲,经济学家将美国第四季经济增长预期上调至3%,但美股依旧大跌。道琼工业指数收低496.87点,或2.02%,报24,100.51点;标普500指数收跌50.59点,或1.91%,报2,599.95点;纳斯达克指数收挫159.67点,或2.26%,报6,910.66点。

个股方面,脸书(FB)下跌0.66%。亚马逊(AMZN)领跌,跌幅达4.01%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌3.33%;苹果(AAPL)下跌3.20%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.03%,美国医疗保健大厂「娇生」周五传出早在47年前就知道婴儿爽身粉中含致癌石绵(Asbestos),受此消息拖累,娇生(JNJ) 惨跌10.04%。

日本股市周五下跌,因日经225指数12月12-13日飙涨约670点,加上市场静待美国即将公布的经济数据,引发了结获利的卖压涌现,拖累日经225指数14日以低盘开出后、指数跌幅就一路扩大,开低走低,终场重挫2.02%或441.36点,收21,374.83点。

个股方面,Sony下跌1.66%,降价活动奏功,Sony PS4游戏机上周日本销售量飙增4.4倍、创10个月高,不过仍不敌任天堂Switch游戏机。日本邮政传出将出资3,000亿日元、取得美国寿险公司Aflac 7-8%股权,且最终有望成为最大股东。于日本挂牌的Aflac飙涨4.93%、日本邮政跌1.08%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,最低探至113.205一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱萎靡,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格关键支撑考验113关口。上行方面,价格初步阻力位指向113.800一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低触及1.12686一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能缩减殆尽,双线死叉,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格支撑位进一步下看1.12000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力位考验1.13500一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜回落收跌,最低探至1.25281一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.24800一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.27000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜延续回落,最低触及1232一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下延伸。后市来看,金价阻力位指向1249一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1230一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜回落收跌,基本回吐前一交易日升幅。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标向下。后市来看,油价依旧考验50关口支撑力度。上行方面,油价阻力位看向53.70一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜回落收跌,回撤至24000关口附近寻求支撑。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24700一线。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23800一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜收跌,最低探至21180一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21800一线,下行支撑位看向21000关口。

 

 

14 12月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 14, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S unemployment claims dropped to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand

·      U.S inflation was flat in November, dropping from 0.3 percent a month earlier

·      UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence yesterday

·      ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent and marked down its outlook on regional growth

The U.S Dollar was higher yesterday, as the number of people who filed for first-time unemployment benefits hit a two-and-a-half month low. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.19% to 97.20. The dollar was boosted after the U.S Department of Labor said that the number of individuals applying for initial jobless benefits in the seven days ended Dec. 8 decreased by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000. Meanwhile the pound was slightly higher after UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening. Brexit woes continue despite the victory, as it seems unlikely that May’s party will support her agreement with Brussels on leaving the European Union in March. The euro fell against the dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. On the other hand, ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Sterling held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. Traders’ attempt to extend sterling’ gains faded on uncertainty on what more May, who is currently in Brussels, could get from EU leaders to improve on her Brexit proposal. On Monday, May scrapped a parliamentary vote on her current plan, sending the pound to a 20-month low against the dollar and triggering a no-confidence vote on her leadership. The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell after data on Wednesday showed a smaller-than-expected drawdown in U.S crude stockpiles. U.S crude oil futures were down 0.6 per cent at $50.86 a barrel.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  Summit of EU Leaders High      
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (DEC) Medium     52.2
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV) Medium   8.8% 8.6%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) Medium   5.9% 5.9%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) Medium     4.2%
08:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.7 51.8
09:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.8 51.8
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (NOV) High   0.1% 0.8%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (NOV) Medium   0.4% 0.3%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Control Group (NOV) Medium   0.5% 0.3%
14:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.1%
14:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.3%
14:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   55.1 55.3
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (DEC) Medium   55 54.7
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (DEC 14) Medium     1075

 

Euro

The single currency fell against the Dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40%. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1329 and a high of 1.1392 before closing the day around 1.1356 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen moved lower in yesterday’s trading session. In the U.S, unemployment claims dropped sharply to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand. Japan’s manufacturing sector is being squeezed by the ongoing U.S-China trade war, which is having a chilling effect on the Japanese economy. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.18 and a high of 113.68 before closing the day around 113.59 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. It had rallied on Wednesday in anticipation as traders bet her win might allow her to negotiate more generous terms for Britain in its exit from the European Union in March. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2608 and a high of 1.2684 before closing the day at 1.2657 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The U.S dollar rose against a basket of major currencies after the European Central Bank trimmed its growth and inflation projections for next year, pressuring the euro. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3336 and a high of 1.3381 before closing the day at 1.3351 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is holding near a one-week high as riskier assets are boosted by signs of progress in Sino-US trade relations. But most of the action in the forex world was in the British pound with most other currencies bystanders amid high political drama in Britain, where Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote on her leadership. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7210 and a high of 0.7244 before closing the day at 0.7228 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.22%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.57%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.40%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.30%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.31%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1368 1.1392 1.13297 1.13563 -0.0011
USD/JPY 113.291 113.689 113.186 113.597 0.3320
GBP/USD 1.26258 1.26846 1.26083 1.26577 0.0032
USD/CHF 0.99334 0.99525 0.99098 0.9938 0.0005
USD/CAD 1.33487 1.33816 1.3336 1.33514 0.0003
EUR/JPY 128.802 129.231 128.685 129.048 0.2840
GBP/JPY 143.056 143.909 142.867 143.803 0.8110
CHF/JPY 114.027 114.418 113.937 114.256 0.2620
AUD/JPY 81.797 82.174 81.657 82.066 0.3300
EUR/GBP 0.90025 0.90129 0.89504 0.89733 -0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.12937 1.12999 1.12637 1.12924 0.0000
GBP/CHF 1.25425 1.25897 1.25289 1.25822 0.0039

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1264 1.1297 1.1327 1.1359 1.1389 1.1422 1.1451
USD/JPY 112.79 112.99 113.29 113.49 113.80 113.99 114.30
GBP/USD 1.2540 1.2574 1.2616 1.2650 1.2692 1.2727 1.2768
USD/CHF 0.9872 0.9891 0.9914 0.9933 0.9957 0.9976 1.0000
USD/CAD 1.3285 1.3311 1.3331 1.3356 1.3377 1.3402 1.3422
EUR/JPY 128.20 128.44 128.75 128.99 129.29 129.53 129.84
GBP/JPY 142.10 142.48 143.14 143.53 144.19 144.57 145.23
CHF/JPY 113.51 113.72 113.99 114.20 114.47 114.68 114.95
AUD/JPY 81.24 81.45 81.76 81.97 82.27 82.48 82.79
EUR/GBP 0.8882 0.8916 0.8945 0.8979 0.9007 0.9041 0.9070
EUR/CHF 1.1235 1.1249 1.1271 1.1285 1.1307 1.1322 1.1343
GBP/CHF 1.2483 1.2506 1.2544 1.2567 1.2605 1.2628 1.2666

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-14

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周四(12月13日)收涨,欧市盘中欧洲央行宣布利率维持不变,使得欧元应声下滑,美元趁机攀升。美市盘中日内公布的上周初请失业救济金人数为20.6万人,低于前值23.1万人,及预期值22.5万人,为美元指数上涨带来助力,录得日内高点97.29。但在收盘前回落,收回日内涨幅,最终报收97.09。

现货黄金周四亚市早盘开于1245.30美元/金衡盎司后,金价区间震荡,录得日内高点1246.50美元/金衡盎司后转跌。欧市金价转入盘整后再度下挫,盘中出现大幅抛压,金价跳水。美市多头反攻多空激烈交战,振幅加大,录得日内低点1239.90美元/金衡盎司后盘整,终收于1241.90美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油收涨1.67美元,或3.26%,报52.84美元/桶。国际能源署(IEA)表示,鉴于伊朗和委内瑞拉等国的产量下滑,石油输出国组织(OPEC)的实际减产幅度可能是计划中的两倍,且中美贸易谈话透露出利好迹象,使得风险情绪好转,为油价提供有效支撑。但欧洲央行宣布维持利率不变,使得欧元应声下滑,美元指数趁机攀升,限制了油价的上行空间。

美国股市周四涨跌不一,其中公用事业、石油和天然气和生活消费品等上涨的板块带领股指走高;与此同时,基础材料、电信和消费服务板块等下跌的使股指走低。道琼工业指数上涨70.11点,或0.29%,报24,597.38点;标普500指数收跌0.53点或0.02%,报2,650.54点;纳斯达克指数收跌27.98点,或0.39%,报7,070.33点。

个股方面,Netflix(NFLX)上涨0.41%;脸书(FB)股价上涨0.35%;亚马逊(AMZN)下跌0.31%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌0.02%;苹果(AAPL)上涨 1.09%;美国银行(BAC)下跌0.53%;高盛(GS)下跌0.46%;富国银行(WFC)下跌 1.49%;摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.10%。

日本股市周四上涨,因中美贸易谈判有进展,海运、钢铁等今年来跌幅颇大的景气敏感类股大涨,也激励日经225指数13日持续走扬,终场涨0.99%或213.44点,收21,816.19点。

个股方面,新日铁住金大涨2.13%、JFE Holdings劲扬1.79%、商船三井大涨2.05%、日本邮船劲扬1.64%。软银下挫1.30%。软银传出将舍弃华为,计划将华为等中国制基地台自现行的4G设备中移除、更换成欧厂产品,且5G基地台也将向欧厂下单。任天堂上扬0.46%,新游戏软件「任天堂明星大乱斗 特别版」夯爆,Switch日本销量飙增1.6倍,累计销售量突破600万台、破600万台的速度比PS4快上一倍。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜温和收涨,最高探至113.694一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验113.200一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧指向113.900一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜震荡微跌,交投于1.13600一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能微缩,RSI指标走平。后市看来,价格支撑位看向1.13000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位考验1.14000一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,小幅探高至1.26856一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.26000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收跌,温和回撤至1239一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价阻力位指向1253一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1230一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜反弹收涨,最低触及50.34一线后走高。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上。后市来看,油价依旧考验50关口支撑力度。上行方面,油价阻力位进一步看向53.80一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜基本收平,震荡交投于24560一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标走平。后市来看,价格关键阻力位依旧考验25000关口。下行方面,价格支撑位下看24200一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜低开收涨,最高探至21845一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格阻力位考验22100一线,下行支撑位看向21000关口。

 

13 12月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 13, 2018


 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates

·      The ongoing U.S-China trade war has had a chilling effect on the Japanese manufacturing sector

·      The likely outcome of Friday’s summit are a blow to German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz

·      The Canadian Dollar gained against the U.S Dollar, boosted by higher oil prices

 

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday, as inflation data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes in 2019. The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, slowing from the 0.3% increase seen in October. Analysts had forecast a 0.1% increase. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 97.09. The dollar has been under pressure recently amid expectations that the Fed will pause its pace of interest rate hikes next year, despite an expected rate increase next week. The British pound has rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. In the latest twist for sterling in a turbulent week, the pound rose to $1.2620 against the dollar and €1.1121 against the euro, as more than 150 Conservative MPs said they would vote for the PM. Business leaders reacted angrily to the fresh turmoil in Westminster, saying the latest uncertainty was bad for the economy. The US Dollar has been grinding higher against the Japanese yen for some time, but every time we get close to the ¥114 level, we pull back a bit and it looks likely that the uptrend underneath should continue to offer support. Ultimately, this is a market that should eventually make a decision, but it may not be until 2019 that it happens. Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. This missed the estimate of 2.4%. The Canadian Dollar was boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy stands to benefit if the outlook improves for the global flow of trade and capital.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (DEC) Medium 3.6%
00:01 U.K RICS House Price Balance (NOV) Medium -10.0% -10.0%
07:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 2.3% 2.3%
08:30 SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate (DEC 13) High -0.75% -0.75%
09:00 SNB’s Jordan Speaks at Press Conference in Bern High
12:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (DEC 13) High 0.00% 0.00%
12:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility (DEC 13) High 0.25% 0.25%
12:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DEC 13) High -0.40% -0.40%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium 0.1% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Export Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 3.1%
13:30 U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (NOV) Medium 0.0% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 8) Medium 225k 231k
19:00 U.S Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) Medium -$197.0b -$100.5b
23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (4Q) Medium 18 19

Euro

The single currency gained in yesterday’s session. European Union leaders will ditch proposals to use a euro zone budget for economic stabilization and restrict any funds to long-standing EU goals of convergence among their economies and increasing competitiveness, draft summit conclusions showed yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1313 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1366 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted small gains yesterday. On the release front, Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. In the U.S, consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.12 and a high of 113.50 before closing the day around 113.26 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. Sterling rose by more than 1% against the dollar and by 0.8% against the euro yesterday after Tory rebels triggered the vote on May’s leadership of their party. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2475 and a high of 1.2670 before closing the day at 1.2625 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart, boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with Reuters, said that trade talks with Beijing were under way by telephone, with more meetings likely between U.S and Chinese officials.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3320 and a high of 1.3395 before closing the day at 1.3348 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar rose along with global equities as tentative signs of easing Sino-US trade tensions whetted risk appetite. A gauge of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 0.9 per cent while US stock futures were upbeat too. Risk appetite got a boost after U.S President Donald Trump said trade talks with Beijing were already underway, with more meetings likely among US and Chinese officials. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7196 and a high of 0.7236 before closing the day at 0.7217 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.00%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.09%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.67%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.15%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 12, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13153 1.1386 1.13137 1.13669 0.0051
USD/JPY 113.356 113.502 113.121 113.265 -0.0900
GBP/USD 1.2485 1.26704 1.24753 1.26256 0.0139
USD/CHF 0.9931 0.99637 0.99112 0.99331 0.0002
USD/CAD 1.339 1.33951 1.332 1.33485 -0.0039
EUR/JPY 128.29 128.842 128.275 128.764 0.4910
GBP/JPY 141.536 143.421 141.497 142.992 1.4210
CHF/JPY 114.111 114.362 113.796 113.994 -0.1190
AUD/JPY 81.628 82.029 81.589 81.736 0.0750
EUR/GBP 0.90612 0.90673 0.89668 0.90005 -0.0061
EUR/CHF 1.12397 1.12952 1.12325 1.1292 0.0053
GBP/CHF 1.24002 1.258 1.23961 1.25432 0.0142

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1253 1.1283 1.1325 1.1356 1.1397 1.1428 1.1470
USD/JPY 112.71 112.92 113.09 113.30 113.47 113.68 113.85
GBP/USD 1.2315 1.2395 1.2510 1.2590 1.2706 1.2786 1.2901
USD/CHF 0.9856 0.9884 0.9908 0.9936 0.9961 0.9989 1.0013
USD/CAD 1.3239 1.3279 1.3314 1.3355 1.3389 1.3430 1.3464
EUR/JPY 127.85 128.06 128.41 128.63 128.98 129.19 129.55
GBP/JPY 139.93 140.71 141.85 142.64 143.78 144.56 145.70
CHF/JPY 113.17 113.48 113.74 114.05 114.31 114.62 114.87
AUD/JPY 81.10 81.34 81.54 81.78 81.98 82.22 82.42
EUR/GBP 0.8855 0.8911 0.8956 0.9012 0.9056 0.9112 0.9157
EUR/CHF 1.1189 1.1211 1.1251 1.1273 1.1314 1.1336 1.1377
GBP/CHF 1.2249 1.2323 1.2433 1.2506 1.2617 1.2690 1.2801

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-13

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周三(12月12日)下跌,今年早些发布的美国经济数据,引发对通膨上升的担忧,但近期美国通膨报告显示出通膨非常温和。数据显示,11月消费者物价指数年率为2.2%,低于前值2.5%,符合预期;11月核心消费者物价指数年率为2.2%,高于前值2.1%,符合预期。数据公布后,美元指数转跌,跌破97关口,录得日内低点96.90,在收盘前回升,最终报收97.05。

现货黄金周三亚市早盘开于1242.70美元/金衡盎司后金价下跌,录得日内低点1241.75美元/金衡盎司。欧市盘中金价震荡上行,多空陷入激战。美市多头再度上攻,录得日内高点1247.00美元/金衡盎司后,先下跌再转盘整,终收于1245.20美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周三收跌0.78美元,或1.50%,报51.17美元/桶。美国能源信息署(EIA)周三公布报告显示,截至12月7日当周,美国原油库存减少120.8万桶至4.42亿桶;美国周度馏分油库存减少147.5万桶,市场预估为增加180.1万桶。数据公布后,虽然美国原油库存和产量齐降为油价带来有效支撑,但石油输出国组织(OPEC)内部分歧,恐影响未来的减产行动,也使得市场忧虑加剧,令油价回吐日内涨幅并最终收跌。

美国股市周三上涨,受到美中利多消息频传,贸易乐观情绪激励美股三大指数全面开涨,科技股领涨,道琼盘中一度大涨逾 450 点,尔后尾盘收敛涨幅。道琼工业指数上涨157.03点,或0.64%,报24,527.27点;标普500指数收高14.29点,或0.54%,报2,651.07点;纳斯达克指数收高66.48点,或0.95%,报7,098.31点。

个股方面,Netflix(NFLX)上涨3.60%;脸书(FB)股价上涨1.70%;亚马逊(AMZN)上涨1.24%;Alphabet(GOOGL)上涨1.14%;苹果(AAPL)上涨0.28%、美国银行(BAC)下跌0.24%;高盛(GS) 下跌0.06%;富国银行(WFC)下跌0.04%;摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.65%。

日本股市周三上涨,因华为副董事长兼财务长获得保释,市场期待美中紧张情势有望因此舒缓,提振大金等中国相关类股飙涨,加上日元走贬,激励日经225指数12日开盘后指数随即跳空大涨200点,且之后涨幅一路扩大,终场大涨2.15%或454.73点,收21,602.75点。

个股方面,积极抢攻中国市场的婴童用品大厂Pigeon暴涨6.14%,空调大厂大金飙涨5.36%,Fanuc劲扬1.20%,DMG森精机大涨2.11%,Okuma大涨2.33%,Panasonic大涨3.19%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,窄幅交投于113.300一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑依旧考验113关口。上行方面,价格阻力指向113.900一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜反弹收涨,最高探至1.13859一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能微增,RSI指标拐头向上。后市看来,价格支撑位看向1.13000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位考验1.14100一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜反弹收涨,最高探至1.26705一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标拐头向上。后市看来,价格关键支撑位指向1.25000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.26800一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收涨,窄幅交投于1244一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,金价阻力位指向1254一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1237一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收跌,最高触及52.81一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,油价考验50关口支撑力度。上行方面,油价阻力位进一步看向53.60一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至24842一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格关键阻力位考验25000关口。下行方面,价格支撑位下看24200一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜大幅收涨,最高探至21820一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标大幅向上。后市来看,价格阻力位考验22100一线,下行支撑位看向21000关口。

 

市场报告                     2018-12-12

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周二(12月11日)收涨,欧市盘中受到英国脱欧不确定因素加上中美贸易战使美元指数下跌,盘中最低来到96.87,美市开盘美国公布11月生产者物价指数月率为0.1%,低于前值0.6%,高于预期值0.0%;11月生产者物价指数年率为2.5%,低于前值2.9%,与预期值相同;11月核心生产者物价指数月率为0.3%,低于前值0.5%,高于预测值0.1%;11月核心生产者物价指数年率为2.7%,高于前值2.6%及预测值2.5%。数据公布后,美元指数上涨,最终报收97.47。

现货黄金周二亚市早盘开于1243.90美元/金衡盎司后金价小幅攀升,不断走高。欧市盘中金价延续涨势,录得日内高点1249.30美元/金衡盎司后转跌,金价震荡下行。美市盘中金价下跌,多空交锋激烈,空方终占优,录得日内低点1240.80美元/金衡盎司后反弹,终收于1242.70美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周二收涨1.13美元,或2.22%,报51.95美元/桶。因利比亚的重要油田被武装占领而被迫关闭,令市场供应过剩忧虑有所缓解,为多头带来喘息,但美元指数继续走高,依然限制油价的上行空间。

美国股市周二涨跌互见,由于中国传出将削减美输中汽车关税影响,激励早盘汽车类股大涨,但贸易乐观情绪被美国总统川普威胁关闭美国政府、谴责中国黑客攻击和经济间谍活动的政治不确定性所抵消,终场S&P500和道琼指数小幅震荡收跌。道琼工业指数下跌53.02点,或0.22%,至24,370.24点;标普500指数下跌0.94点,或0.04%,至2,636.78;纳斯达克指数上涨11.31点,或0.16%,至7,031.83。

个股方面,科技股涨跌互见,苹果(AAPL)下跌0.57%、Netflix(NFLX)下跌1.62%;脸书(FB)股价上涨0.16%,亚马逊(AMZN)上涨0.13%、和Alphabet(GOOGL)上涨0.80%,美国银行(BAC)下跌0.71%;高盛(GS)下跌1.14%;富国银行(WFC)下跌2.13%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌0.96%。

日本股市周二下跌,因日元10日走贬,提振日经225指数11日以红盘21,273点开出,之后因市场忧心美中贸易摩擦,电子零件、半导体等景气敏感类股下挫,也拖累日经指数翻黑走跌,终场跌0.34%或71.48点,收21,148.02点。

个股方面,日本电子零件股走跌。村田制作所下挫1.25%、TDK重挫2.27%、太阳诱电惨跌4.30%。三井高科技暴跌18.78%,创2017年2月27日以来收盘新低纪录。半导体库存调整扩大,电子零件事业销售逊色,三井高科技下砍财测,华为通讯机器竞争对手富士通逆势上扬0.20%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收涨,震荡交投于113.300一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑依旧考验113关口。上行方面,价格阻力进一步指向113.900一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜延续收跌,一度尝试反弹至1.14000一线附近后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能缩减,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格支撑位看向1.12600一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.14000一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜延续收跌,最低探至1.24788一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸逼近超卖区。后市看来,价格支撑位下看1.24000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位指向1.26800一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收跌,一度冲高至1249一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价阻力位指向1252一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1230一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,交投于51关口附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,油价考验50关口支撑力度。上行方面,油价阻力位进一步看向54.30一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收跌,最高探至24820一线后回吐升幅。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格阻力位考验25100一线。下行方面,价格支撑位下看24000关口。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜微幅收涨,交投于21300一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21800一线,下行支撑位看向21000关口。