20 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

August 20, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      Dollar fell against the major currencies following softer than expected U.S consumer confidence

·      Slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the Euro

·      Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery

·      Canadian Dollar benefitted from stronger than expected consumer price growth

  

The second full week in August was a good one for the U.S Dollar. The greenback extended its gains against most of the major currencies but the rally is slowing as investors cover their shorts in EUR/USD, AUD/USD and other major currencies. Softer than expected U.S consumer confidence helped to fuel their recoveries but the prospect of 2 relatively quiet data weeks and the potential for a disruptive trade meeting between the U.S. and China also encouraged investors to reduce their short positions. The most important event risk next week will be the U.S. and China’s trade talks on August 21 and 22. If the talks go well, risk appetite will improve allowing deeply oversold currencies like the Australian dollar to recover. However if the U.S. and China continue to bump heads, we could see renewed losses for euro, sterling and Aussie along with gains for the U.S Dollar. U.S fundamentals are still sound and next week’s FOMC minutes will remind us that the Fed is on course to raise rates in September. So at most we expect the pullback in USD/JPY to take the pair to 109.90 or 110. After hitting a low of 1.13 on Wednesday, EUR/USD ended the week near 1.14. Like the U.S., slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the currency. Eurozone PMIs are due for release in the week ahead and of all the economic reports on the calendar, these are the most important because previously, we’ve seen very little sign of trade tensions impacting the Eurozone economy but if the August numbers show a slowdown, euro will resume its slide. If the data shows that manufacturing and service sector activity continued to expand at a faster pace, EUR/USD could extend its gains to 1.15. Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery. With short positions at their highest level since May 2017, GBP/USD was at the greatest risk of a short covering rally. Consumer spending rose 3 times more than expected in July, year over year CPI growth accelerated to 2.5%, well above the central bank’s 2% target and the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 43 years. There was a slowdown in wage growth and zero price growth on a month to month basis, but the improvements should have overshadowed the deterioration. Yet it did not, which shows how strong the selling pressure really is. The problem is that the risk of a no-deal Brexit is growing but taking a look at the GBP/USD daily chart – higher highs and higher lows suggest that a stronger recovery is brewing. If it happens, it would be driven by Brexit headlines or a deeper pullback in the U.S Dollar because there are no major UK economic reports for the rest of the month. All three of the commodity currencies traded higher today with the Canadian leading the gains.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low     3.0%
07:00 Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) Low     1.1%
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (AUG 17) Low      
09:00 Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN) Low     1.8%
15:00 U.S Fed’s Bostic Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Tennessee Low      
22:45 New Zealand Net Migration s.a. (JUL) Low     4840
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 19) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency traded better against the U.S. Dollar on Friday. The single currency continues to be supported by the announcement of renewed trade talks between the United States and China later this month. Considering the limited impact on European banks, the recent sell-off in the Euro appears to have been overdone. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1365 and a high of 1.1443 before closing the day around 1.1441 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair was under pressure last week on trade tensions and on revelations the Bank of Japan is under pressure to move away from its accommodative policy. Early in the week, the Yen was supported by solid domestic data. Late in the week, geopolitical tensions sparked a flight-to-safety rally into the Japanese Yen. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.29 and a high of 111.03 before closing the day around 110.54 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound struggled during the last week, as we reached down to the next support level. People are starting to price in the idea of a “no deal Brexit”, so things are becoming much more negative. At this point, the trade of the century might be buying the British pound at low levels, but clearly you need a longer-term signal to start doing that. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2695 and a high of 1.2752 before closing the day at 1.2752 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart on Friday after data showed a surge in domestic inflation triggered increased bets on another Bank of Canada interest rate hike as soon as September. Canada’s annual inflation rate surged to 3.0 per cent in July, its highest in nearly seven years, versus 2.5 per cent the previous month. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3049 and a high of 1.3167 before closing the day at 1.3062 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar broke sharply last week amid expectations that domestic interest rates would remain at historical lows longer than expected and rising geopolitical turmoil that dampened demand for higher-yielding currencies. The Australian Dollar weakened as the central bank showed no intention of raising rates over the near future. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7250 and a high of 0.7317 before closing the day at 0.7315 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.26%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.46%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.19%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 17, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1375 1.14435 1.1365 1.14414 0.0066
USD/JPY 110.867 111.033 110.296 110.54 -0.3420
GBP/USD 1.27109 1.2752 1.26959 1.2752 0.0039
USD/CHF 0.99665 0.9976 0.9931 0.99558 -0.0010
USD/CAD 1.31553 1.31672 1.30497 1.30621 -0.0092
EUR/JPY 126.127 126.584 125.555 126.461 0.3220
GBP/JPY 140.985 141.143 140.202 140.957 -0.0160
CHF/JPY 111.206 111.29 110.787 111.054 -0.1620
AUD/JPY 80.468 80.938 80.071 80.856 0.3710
EUR/GBP 0.89465 0.89759 0.8934 0.89726 0.0026
EUR/CHF 1.13385 1.13921 1.13277 1.13899 0.0051
GBP/CHF 1.26656 1.26992 1.26485 1.26954 0.0023

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1311 1.1338 1.1390 1.1417 1.1468 1.1495 1.1547
USD/JPY 109.48 109.89 110.21 110.62 110.95 111.36 111.69
GBP/USD 1.2659 1.2677 1.2715 1.2733 1.2771 1.2789 1.2827
USD/CHF 0.9888 0.9909 0.9933 0.9954 0.9978 0.9999 1.0023
USD/CAD 1.2901 1.2976 1.3019 1.3093 1.3136 1.3211 1.3254
EUR/JPY 124.79 125.17 125.82 126.20 126.85 127.23 127.87
GBP/JPY 139.45 139.83 140.39 140.77 141.33 141.71 142.27
CHF/JPY 110.29 110.54 110.80 111.04 111.30 111.55 111.80
AUD/JPY 79.44 79.75 80.31 80.62 81.17 81.49 82.04
EUR/GBP 0.8904 0.8919 0.8946 0.8961 0.8988 0.9003 0.9030
EUR/CHF 1.1283 1.1306 1.1348 1.1370 1.1412 1.1434 1.1477
GBP/CHF 1.2612 1.2630 1.2663 1.2681 1.2714 1.2732 1.2764

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-20

     
Market Summary
周五(8月17日)美元指数继续保持低迷态势。因受到日内公布的美加数据悲喜双重天,加拿大7月CPI飙升至2011年以来最高水平,使得加元受到提振急涨近百点,此数据公布后使得美元指数下挫至96.28。加上随后出炉的美国密歇根大学指数不及预期与前值,为95.3,并创下去年9月以来最低水准,导致美元指数进一步承压,而美国7月咨商会领先指标月率为0.6%,高于前值0.5%和预期0.4%。美元指数最终收于96.09。

现货黄金周五(8月17日)上涨,亚市早盘开于1173.80美元/金衡盎司后小幅震荡下行,录得日内低点1171.75美元/金衡盎司后反弹。因受到黄金正在亚洲吸引“强劲”的实物买盘,帮助金价在1172.00美元/金衡盎司附近的支撑位,吸引了支撑位的买单,在盘整之后大幅逆转并上破1180.00美元/金衡盎司。最终收在1184.00美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周五收涨0.45美元,或0.69%,报65.93美元/桶。因市场风险情绪改善为原油等风险资产带来支撑,同时美元承压重挫更是加大了油价的反弹动能。

美国股市在周五收高,因受到美国解决与中国和墨西哥之间的贸易纠纷并且取得进展。道琼工业指数上涨110.59点,或0.43%,至25,669.32点;标准普尔500指数上涨9.44点,或0.33%,至2,850.13点;纳斯达克指数上涨9.81点,或0.13%,至7,816.33点。

个股方面,在发布疲弱的财测后,英伟达 NVDA.O 跌4.9%,应用材料 AMAT.O 下跌7.7%,拖累费城半导体指数 .SOX 下滑0.7%。而Nordstrom Inc JWN.N 则暴涨13.2%,此前该公司公布同店销售好于预期并上调盈利预估,逆百货店财测疲弱的趋势。

日本股市周五收高,因中美贸易战露出转机,使得日经225指数走扬,但涨幅有限,主要受美国半导体设备厂应材展望不佳、相关晶片设备厂走跌影响,指数终场仅收涨0.35%,或78.34点,收22,270.38点。

个股方面,景气循环股如造船、金属加工与金融股表现优于大盘,日本海运业者商船三井收高2.5%、住友金属矿山与三菱日联金融集团均收涨1.9%。而芯片设备制造类股遭遇卖压,东京电子下跌1.4%,思可林下跌2.9%。此前全球最大的晶片制造设备供应商–美国应用材料对该公司当前季度的获利及营收预测均逊于分析师预期。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜回落收跌,最低触及110.302一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格支撑位于110.500一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标考验111关口,突破才有望进一步指向111.700一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜延续反弹,最高探至1.14434一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上延伸。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.14000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力看向1.16500一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,交投于1.27300一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标依旧超卖。后市看来,价格考验1.27000一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.28200一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜反弹收涨,最高探至1184一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,金价初步阻力考验1197一线。下行方面,金价支撑目标下看1167一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,最高触及66.37一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于64.40一线。上行方面,油价阻力位于68.60一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收高,一度刷新新高至25728一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25800一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25440一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收平,一度探低至22070一线后反弹。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22400一线。

 

 

17 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

       

 FOREX Newsletter

 August 17, 2018
 

 

    Pulse of the Market

·      Turkey secured a lifeline from Qatar and their steps to curb Lira selling are working

·      U.S data fell short of expectations but the impact was limited

·      Data had a very little impact on the Euro with the Eurozone’s trade balance declining slightly

·      Sterling seems very weak and had a very tough time rallying despite very good data

 

All of the major currencies traded higher as improved risk appetite drove traders back into high beta currencies. U.S Chief Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow confirmed that the trade talks with China will resume next week while U.S trade negotiator Lighthizer said he’s hopeful that there will be a breakthrough on NAFTA in the next few days. U.S data fell short of expectations but the impact was limited by the fact that these second-tier reports won’t affect Fed policy. President Trump also seems to have made a U-turn on Dollar policy. Demand for U.S Dollars is still very strong, which explains why Japanese Yen crosses performed particularly well yesterday. The Euro is still vulnerable to additional losses, having rejected a move above 1.14. Turkey is not out of the woods especially after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin threw out threats of more sanctions if the American pastor is not released. But investors are worried about Italy, who saw its markets go on a rollercoaster ride on the back of Turkey’s troubles. The Eurozone’s current account balance and revisions to July CPI data are due today and unless there is a big change, the impact should be limited as well. Sterling, on the other hand, is very weak. Unlike some other major currencies, it had a very tough time rallying despite very good data. Retail sales rose 0.7% in the month of July, 3 times more than anticipated. Excluding auto fuel, consumer spending growth was even stronger. This report should have sent GBP/USD sharply higher and while it did trigger a 30 pip knee-jerk rally, the pair nose-dived just as quickly. The selling pressure in the pound is very strong and there seem to be no signs of let up even though short positions are at their highest level since May 2017. As a result, the risk of a move down to 1.26 is significant. Along the same lines, EUR/GBP could revisit 90 cents. The Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their gains today while the Canadian dollar remained under pressure. After selling off aggressively this month, we believe AUD/USD has found a bottom. It is too early to say whether this will be a short or long-term bottom but either way, we see further gains ahead for the pair. Australia reported mixed labor market data. Job losses were reported but the market shrugged off the headline miss in favor of fulltime job growth and the best unemployment rate in 6 years. The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, extended its losses ahead of today’s CPI report. While Canadian data has been pretty good, today’s report could surprise to the downside because price pressures eased in the manufacturing sector according to IVEY PMI.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUL) Medium   1.1% 1.1%
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Medium   2.1% 2.0%
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High   2.5% 2.5%
14:00 U.S Leading Index (JUL) Medium   0.4% 0.5%
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (AUG) High   98 97.9
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Current Conditions (AUG) Low     114.4
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Expectations (AUG) Low     87.3
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (AUG 17) Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency gained slightly in yesterday’s session. On the release front, the German Wholesale Price Index dropped to 0.0%, short of the estimate of 0.5%. The Eurozone trade surplus narrowed to EUR 16.7 billion, missing the estimate of EUR 17.0 billion. The euro has endured a rough August, losing 2.7 percent in that time. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1334 and a high of 1.1407 before closing the day around 1.1375 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen had an uneventful week and that trend continued yesterday. On the release front, Japan’s trade surplus with the US dropped 22.1% in July. It was a busy day for U.S indicators. Building Permits improved to 1.31 million, matching the estimate. Housing starts remained at 1.17 million, short of the estimate of 1.27 million. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.44 and a high of 111.10 before closing the day around 110.88 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound advanced against rivals yesterday as traders responded to official data showing spending on the high street rising faster than was expected during July, drawing a line under the surprise slump seen back in June. UK retail sales rose by 0.4% during July, up from the -0.5% contraction seen back in June  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2683 and a high of 1.2752 before closing the day at 1.2713 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was nearly unchanged against its U.S counterpart yesterday after a planned oil pipeline from Alberta to Nebraska met with a setback, offsetting domestic data that showed a rise in factory sales. Canadian factory sales grew by 1.1 per cent in June from May, thanks largely to a rebound in petroleum and coal products. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3111 and a high of 1.3172 before closing the day at 1.3154 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar correlation with the tumbling offshore Yuan reached the strongest on record in August as investors entwine the two nations’ fortunes. It’s a clear sign of Australia’s vulnerability to a slowdown in China that’s being exacerbated by U.S tariffs. Australia’s currency is under fire as the economy caps a 27th recession-free year amid accelerating growth. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7213 and a high of 0.7284 before closing the day at 0.7259 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.24%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.37%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.11%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.43%.

 

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for August 16, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13446 1.14077 1.13344 1.13755 0.0029
USD/JPY 110.693 111.104 110.44 110.882 0.1270
GBP/USD 1.26966 1.27522 1.26836 1.27132 0.0015
USD/CHF 0.99374 0.99728 0.99914 0.99662 0.0029
USD/CAD 1.31397 1.31722 1.31116 1.31544 0.0011
EUR/JPY 125.602 126.467 125.26 126.139 0.4750
GBP/JPY 140.563 141.302 140.184 140.973 0.3440
CHF/JPY 111.361 111.783 111.166 111.216 -0.2650
AUD/JPY 80.11 80.797 79.806 80.485 0.2960
EUR/GBP 0.89337 0.89581 0.8932 0.89464 0.0010
EUR/CHF 1.1274 1.13454 1.12615 1.13384 0.0064
GBP/CHF 1.26182 1.26755 1.26024 1.26719 0.0054

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1264 1.1299 1.1337 1.1373 1.1411 1.1446 1.1484
USD/JPY 109.85 110.14 110.51 110.81 111.18 111.47 111.84
GBP/USD 1.2612 1.2648 1.2680 1.2716 1.2749 1.2785 1.2818
USD/CHF 0.9999 0.9995 0.9981 0.9977 0.9962 0.9958 0.9944
USD/CAD 1.3059 1.3085 1.3120 1.3146 1.3181 1.3207 1.3241
EUR/JPY 124.24 124.75 125.44 125.96 126.65 127.16 127.86
GBP/JPY 139.22 139.70 140.34 140.82 141.46 141.94 142.57
CHF/JPY 110.38 110.77 110.99 111.39 111.61 112.01 112.23
AUD/JPY 78.94 79.37 79.93 80.36 80.92 81.35 81.91
EUR/GBP 0.8907 0.8919 0.8933 0.8946 0.8959 0.8972 0.8985
EUR/CHF 1.1201 1.1231 1.1285 1.1315 1.1369 1.1399 1.1453
GBP/CHF 1.2551 1.2577 1.2624 1.2650 1.2697 1.2723 1.2771

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 市场报告                     2018-08-17

     
Market Summary
周四(8月16日)美元指数下跌,亚市盘中美元指数位于96.5震荡,美市开盘,日内公布的美国上周初请失业救济金人数为21万2千人,低于前值21万3千人,也低于市场预期21万5千人,另一个重要数据美国8月费城联储制造业指数为11.9,远低于前值25.7和市场预期22.0,数据显示虽然美国失业率降低,但制造业前景更令投资者担心,数据公布完后美元指数下跌,最低来到96.31,美市盘中美国财政部长努钦警告,华盛顿准备对土耳其实施更多制裁,土耳其里拉暴跌,资金开始逃窜并流入美元,美元指数上涨,最高来到96.7,随后美元指数转盘整,最终收在96.59。

现货黄金周四(8月16日)走势震荡,亚市早盘黄金突然暴跌,从开盘1174.60美元/金衡盎司,一路下跌至盘中最低1160.05美元/金衡盎司,但未能突破1160.00美元/金衡盎司,黄金随后开始反弹,日内最高触及1181.80美元/金衡盎司,美元于美市盘中走高后,黄金受承压最终收在1173.80美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周四收涨0.6美元,或0.92%,报65.48美元/桶。应美方邀请,中国商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表王受文拟于8月下旬率团访美,与美国财政部副部长马尔帕斯率领的美方代表团就双方各自关注的中美经贸问题进行磋商,这有效改善了市场的风险情绪,帮助原油等风险类资产获得支撑,同时美元走弱也为油价反弹创造条件。

美国股市在周四上涨,因企业发布乐观业绩,贸易不安情绪减弱提振投资者信心。道琼工业指数上涨396.32点,或1.58%,至25,558.73点;标准普尔500指数上涨22.32点,或0.79%,至2,840.69点;纳斯达克指数上涨32.41点,或0.42%,至7,806.52点。

个股方面,思科 CSCO.O 上扬3.0%,之前该公司公布的季度营收和获利均超过华尔街的目标。网络安全公司赛门铁克 SYMC.O 结束五连跌,急升4.6%,之前对冲基金Starboard Value LP购买了该公司5.8%的股份。J.C. Penney Co Inc JCP.N 触及纪录收盘低位,暴跌27.0%,之前该公司公布令人失望的营收,并预计全年亏损超预期。

日本股市周四下跌,因中国商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表王受文应美方邀请、拟于8月下旬率团访美,减缓美中贸易摩擦加剧疑虑,提振日经指数跌幅狂缩且数度翻红,终场小跌0.05%或12.18点,收22,192.04点。

个股方面,Panasonic重挫2.12%,特斯拉冷落太阳能,Panasonic美国工厂生产传陷入停滞,将中止和特斯拉之间的独家供应契约。日本雅虎大跌2.48%,软银重挫1.82%,苹果疑似对日本雅虎的游戏下载事业施加压力、妨碍交易,日本当局展开调查,而传出雅虎最大股东软银居中调解、导致日本当局的调查不顺。资生堂惨跌5.35%,Kose暴跌8.11%,Pola Orbis Holdings重挫2.27%,美容健康机器厂商YA-MAN狂泻10.03%。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收涨,一度突破111关口后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑位于110.500一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标考验111关口,突破则进一步指向111.700一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅反弹,一度触及1.14一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上脱离超卖区。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验1.13000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力看向1.14700一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜低位震荡,交投于1.27100一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标超卖。后市看来,价格考验1.26300一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.28200一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜震荡收平,最低触及1160一线后反弹。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标超卖。后市来看,金价初步阻力考验1190一线。下行方面,金价支撑目标依旧下看1130一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,一度从日低64.41一线反弹。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱温和,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于64.00关口。上行方面,油价阻力位于67.20一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜大幅收涨,飙升至25605一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25700一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25400一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜反弹收涨,一度从日低21860一线反弹。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22500一线。

 

 

16 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

   

FOREX Newsletter

August 16, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S retail sales rose 0.5% last month, but June’s retail sales were revised downward

·      The Empire State manufacturing index rose 5.30 points in August to a reading of 25.60

·      Concerns over Turkey saw demand for the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc increase

·      The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices fell

 

The U.S Dollar steadied against its rivals at 13-month highs yesterday, but gains were limited by rising demand for safe-haven yen on fears turmoil in Turkey could spill over into other markets. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.05% to 96.60. The lira rose sharply against the dollar for the second-straight day as Turkey doubled tariffs on some U.S imports, including alcohol, cars and tobacco in retaliation for U.S moves. The rise in the lira did little to ease investor concerns as analysts warned that while Turkey may take measures to support the lira, the country’s economy would likely plunge into a recession. A recession is on the horizon in Turkey, but the depth of the recession depends on the measures taken. Lower growth, higher interest rates and on balance a weaker currency would still make it difficult for certain Turkish companies to fulfill their external debt obligations, but a national debt crisis would be avoided. Concerns over Turkey saw demand for the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc increase, keeping gains in the greenback in check. A duo of economic reports on retail sales and regional manufacturing pushed the dollar to an intraday high, but the greenback struggled to hold gains. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales rose 0.5% last month, but June’s retail sales was revised downward. The retail sales control group — which has a larger impact on U.S GDP — rose 0.5%, beating expectations for a 0.4% rise. The Empire State manufacturing index rose 5.30 points in August to a reading of 25.60, the New York Federal Reserve said Wednesday. That was its highest reading in 10 months. Elsewhere, bargain hunters scooped up the euro as it plunged to one-year low intraday against the dollar. The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices fell and a 13-month high for the greenback pressured emerging markets and global stocks. Resale’s of Canadian homes rose 1.9 percent in July from June, notching the third straight monthly rise but remaining below the highs seen in recent years, the Canadian Real Estate Association said.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (AUG) Medium     3.9%
01:30 Australia Employment Change (JUL) High   15.0k 50.9k
01:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (JUL) High   5.4% 5.4%
08:30 U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUL) Medium   2.7% 3.0%
09:00 Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (JUN) Low   16.5b 16.9b
12:30 Canada ADP Publishes July Payrolls Report Low      
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low   1.0% 1.4%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 11) Medium   215k  
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (AUG 4) Medium   1741k  
12:30 U.S Housing Starts (MoM) (JUL) Medium   7.4% -12.3%
12:30 U.S Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) Medium   1.4% -2.2%
12:30 U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (AUG) Medium   22 25.7
23:30 RBA Governor Semiannual Testimony High      

Euro

The single currency has fallen more than 5 percent in 2018, and analysts see the downward trend continuing even if the market turmoil in Turkey eases. As euro-area growth slows and rate differentials lead investors to unwind bullish euro positions from earlier in the year. The euro touched a 13-month low yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1299 and a high of 1.1353 before closing the day around 1.1347 in the New York session.

 

Yen

 

 

The Japanese Yen ended the session higher against the U.S Dollar. The currency is undervalued and especially sensitive to shifts in its central bank’s monetary policy – or hints of them – which suggests it may rise in the months ahead. The currency has been a popular go-to for investors fleeing the Turkish currency and emerging market crises. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.41 and a high of 111.41 before closing the day around 110.75 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell below $1.27 against the US dollar for the first time since June last year. Sterling – already weakened amid political turmoil over the government’s Brexit blueprint. The move was also attributed to the strength of the dollar. The drop against the dollar also comes on the back of weaker-than-forecast wage growth figures. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2660 and a high of 1.2733 before closing the day at 1.2697 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart as oil prices fell and a 13-month high for the greenback pressured emerging markets and global stocks. The greenback rose as data showed U.S. retail sales grew more than forecast in July. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was pressured by data showing rising U.S. crude inventories. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3048 and a high of 1.3172 before closing the day at 1.3143 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell yesterday after official data confirmed that wage and inflation pressures are still missing in action down under, while traders continue to shun the antipodean currency amid a testing geopolitical and global economic environment. Wage growth is a hot-button issue for the Australian Dollar. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7200 and a high of 0.7245 before closing the day at 0.7235 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.35%.

  

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 21 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.57%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.37%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.21%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 18 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 15, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13427 1.13535 1.12996 1.1347 0.0001
USD/JPY 111.123 111.412 110.413 110.755 -0.4030
GBP/USD 1.27186 1.27336 1.266 1.26977 -0.0024
USD/CHF 0.99406 0.99807 0.99242 0.99367 -0.0006
USD/CAD 1.30605 1.31723 1.30482 1.31431 0.0083
EUR/JPY 126.061 126.348 124.88 125.664 -0.4450
GBP/JPY 141.346 141.745 139.869 140.629 -0.8070
CHF/JPY 111.763 111.917 110.939 111.481 -0.3340
AUD/JPY 80.424 80.541 79.671 80.189 -0.2960
EUR/GBP 0.89165 0.89373 0.88991 0.89368 0.0019
EUR/CHF 1.12762 1.13034 1.12412 1.12746 -0.0005
GBP/CHF 1.26441 1.26959 1.25896 1.26181 -0.0035

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1259 1.1279 1.1313 1.1333 1.1367 1.1387 1.1421
USD/JPY 109.31 109.86 110.31 110.86 111.31 111.86 112.31
GBP/USD 1.2587 1.2624 1.2661 1.2697 1.2734 1.2771 1.2808
USD/CHF 0.9857 0.9891 0.9914 0.9947 0.9970 1.0004 1.0027
USD/CAD 1.2946 1.2997 1.3070 1.3121 1.3194 1.3245 1.3318
EUR/JPY 123.45 124.16 124.91 125.63 126.38 127.10 127.85
GBP/JPY 137.87 138.87 139.75 140.75 141.63 142.62 143.50
CHF/JPY 110.00 110.47 110.97 111.45 111.95 112.42 112.93
AUD/JPY 78.86 79.26 79.73 80.13 80.60 81.00 81.47
EUR/GBP 0.8873 0.8886 0.8912 0.8924 0.8950 0.8963 0.8988
EUR/CHF 1.1181 1.1211 1.1243 1.1273 1.1305 1.1335 1.1367
GBP/CHF 1.2467 1.2528 1.2573 1.2635 1.2679 1.2741 1.2786

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-16

     
Market Summary
周三(8月15日)美元指数持续上涨,最高触及至96.89,日内公布的美国7月零售销售为0.5%,与前值相同,但低于预期0.1%,主要因服装和餐饮销售强劲,消费支出稳健增长的态势延续到了第三季度。美市盘中卡塔尔已经承诺对土耳其投资150亿美元之后,土耳其对美国施加关税,美土关系日益恶化,美元指数受到承压,许多投资者纷纷获利了结,美元指数最终收在96.71。

现货黄金周三(8月15日)持续暴跌,受到美元指数走高的影响,美市盘中黄金最低下探至1172.85美元/金衡盎司,金价已跌破1180美元/金衡盎司,许多投资者继续放空黄金,金价一路下跌,随后黄金转盘整,最终收在1174.55美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周三收跌1.79美元,或2.68%,报64.88美元/桶。全球经济形势的悲观前景影响原油需求表现,而美国原油库存报告又整体利空,结合美元维持强势,日内油价承压重挫。美国能源信息署(EIA)周三(8月15日)公布报告显示,截至8月10日当周,美国原油库存增加680.5万桶,创2017年3月10日当周(75周)以来最大单周增幅,前值则是减少135.1万桶。

美国股市在周三下跌,因为在一系列企业发布令人失望的业绩和全球关税忧虑加重之际,投资者转向避险交易。道琼工业指数下跌137.51点,或0.54%,至25,162.41点;标准普尔500指数下跌21.59点,或0.76%,至2,818.37点;纳斯达克指数下跌96.78点,或1.23%,至7,774.12点。

个股方面,特斯拉 TSLA.O 下跌2.6%,因据福克斯商业新闻报导,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)就特斯拉执行长马斯克将公司私有化计划和资金已落实的声明发出传票。加拿大大麻生产商Canopy Growth CGC.N 飙升30.4%,之前科罗娜啤酒生产商Constellation Brands STZ.N 宣布将增持该公司股份。墨西哥卷饼连锁店Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc CMG.N 急升6.6%,之前摩根士丹利将该公司评级从表现与同业一致上调至表现强于同业。

日本股市周三下跌,因上证等亚股昨日走跌、人民币续贬,加上土耳其报复美国、调高部分美国产品关税,冲击投资人信心,也拖累日经指数翻黑、且跌幅一度扩大至近250点,终场下挫0.68%或151.86点,收22,204.22点。

个股方面,日本制药厂Astellas跌0.37%,为删减成本,日本各家制药厂掀起医药营销师(MR)裁员潮,3年恐逾3,000人失业。软银大跌2.63%,软银旗下美国电信商Sprint将携手LG,于2019年前半在美开卖5G智慧手机。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜震荡收跌,最高触及111.418一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标拐头向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑位于110.500一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标考验111关口,突破则进一步指向111.700一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜震荡收平,最低触及1.12997一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标超卖。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验1.13000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力看向1.14500一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投于1.27一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标超卖。后市看来,价格考验1.26300一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.28400一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜再创新低,最低探至1172.85一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标超卖。后市来看,金价初步阻力考验1190一线。下行方面,金价支撑目标进一步下看1130一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜延续收跌,最低探至64.50一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸逼近超卖区。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于64.00关口。上行方面,油价阻力位于67.50一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收跌,一度触及日低24953一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25380一线。下行方面,价格支撑进一步看向25000关口。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜回落收跌,全数回吐前一日升幅。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标拐头向下。后市来看,价格支撑位考验21800一线,上方阻力位看向22400一线。

 

 

15 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

     

FOREX Newsletter

August 15, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      After a one day reprieve, investors returned to buying U.S Dollars yesterday

·      Investors are worried that Europe is ground zero for the next emerging market crisis

·      Sterling gave up earlier gains to end the day near its 1.2705 low

·      The performance of the commodity currencies was less consistent in yesterday’s session

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (AUG) Medium     3.9%
01:30 China New Home Prices (MoM) (JUL) Medium     1.1%
08:30 U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High   2.5% 2.4%
08:30 U.K Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low   3.4% 3.4%
08:30 U.K House Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Medium   2.6% 3.0%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 10) Medium      
12:30 U.S Empire Manufacturing (AUG) Low   20 22.6
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (JUL) High   0.1% 0.5%
13:00 Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) Medium     4.1%
13:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL) Medium   0.3% 0.6%
13:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUL) Medium   0.3% 0.8%
14:00 U.S NAHB Housing Market Index (AUG) Medium   67 68
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 10) Medium      
20:00 U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUN) Medium     $45.6b
23:50 Japan Trade Balance (JUL) Medium   -¥41.2b ¥721.4b

 

Euro

The single currency fell yesterday despite Eurozone growth was better than expected in the second quarter, flash estimates from the European statistics office Eurostat showed, in a sign that the negative effect of global trade tensions might be seen only later in the year. Industrial output in the in 19-country currency bloc fell sharply in June. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1328 and a high of 1.1428 before closing the day around 1.1345 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair has been paring gains against the US Dollar since the start of this trading week with USD/JPY testing initial resistance yesterday in early US trade. Keep in mind we get the release of US Advanced Retail Sales tomorrow with University of Michigan confidence surveys on tap this Friday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.56 and a high of 111.29 before closing the day around 111.15 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell in a response to UK labor market data which showed a sharp and unexpected dip in the country’s unemployment rate. UK’s unemployment rate was recorded at 4.0% by the Office for National Statistics; markets were expecting it to remain stuck at 4.2%. This represents the lowest unemployment rate since 1975. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2702 and a high of 1.2825 before closing the day at 1.2722 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as the currency rebounded from a near three-week low the day before, supported by higher global stock prices and the ebbing threat from a collapse of the Turkish lira. Investors have worried that a crisis in Turkey could spread to other emerging market countries. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3054 and a high of 1.3134 before closing the day at 1.3060 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained earlier in the session yesterday following a surprise increase in Australian business confidence. The NAB data release wasn’t entirely positive, however, and with risk aversion, still rife the Australian Dollar’s gains were reversed sharply and the Australian Dollar ended the day lower. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7222 and a high of 0.7281 before closing the day at 0.7234 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.19%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 23 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.04%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 32 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.04%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.23%.

  

 Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 19 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.26%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 14, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1409 1.1428 1.13287 1.13458 -0.0066
USD/JPY 110.665 111.296 110.569 111.158 0.4330
GBP/USD 1.27649 1.28256 1.27027 1.27221 -0.0048
USD/CHF 0.99295 0.99489 0.98992 0.99432 0.0011
USD/CAD 1.31289 1.31342 1.30544 1.30601 -0.0076
EUR/JPY 126.272 126.968 125.785 126.109 -0.2360
GBP/JPY 141.284 142.449 140.979 141.436 0.0510
CHF/JPY 111.403 112.059 111.287 111.815 0.3300
AUD/JPY 80.465 80.783 80.182 80.485 -0.0320
EUR/GBP 0.89364 0.89438 0.88943 0.89179 -0.0021
EUR/CHF 1.1329 1.13525 1.12637 1.12797 -0.0055
GBP/CHF 1.26839 1.27261 1.26253 1.26534 -0.0034

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1208 1.1268 1.1307 1.1368 1.1406 1.1467 1.1506
USD/JPY 109.99 110.28 110.72 111.01 111.45 111.73 112.17
GBP/USD 1.2552 1.2627 1.2675 1.2750 1.2798 1.2873 1.2920
USD/CHF 0.9862 0.9881 0.9912 0.9930 0.9962 0.9980 1.0011
USD/CAD 1.2952 1.3003 1.3032 1.3083 1.3111 1.3163 1.3191
EUR/JPY 124.42 125.10 125.61 126.29 126.79 127.47 127.97
GBP/JPY 139.32 140.15 140.79 141.62 142.26 143.09 143.73
CHF/JPY 110.61 110.95 111.38 111.72 112.15 112.49 112.93
AUD/JPY 79.58 79.88 80.18 80.48 80.78 81.08 81.39
EUR/GBP 0.8844 0.8869 0.8894 0.8919 0.8943 0.8968 0.8993
EUR/CHF 1.1156 1.1210 1.1245 1.1299 1.1334 1.1387 1.1422
GBP/CHF 1.2510 1.2567 1.2610 1.2668 1.2711 1.2769 1.2812

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-15

     
Market Summary
周二(8月14日)日内美国没有重要的经济数据公布,亚洲时段美元指数在96.4附近震荡,欧美时段,受到土耳其的影响,资金纷纷开始逃亡,美元指数多头从96.25开始上涨,一路涨到日内最高96.79,同时也突破2018年以来新高,随后美元指数转盘整,最终收在96.67。

现货黄金周二亚市早盘开于1193.40美元/金衡盎司后,小幅探底回升,欧美盘中最高上探至1198.45美元/金衡盎司,但金价仍运行在1200.00美元/金衡盎司下方,美市盘中金价开始拉回,最低下探至1191.75美元/金衡盎司,随后黄金转盘整,最终收在1193.75美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周二收跌0.69美元,或1.02%,报66.67美元/桶。虽然沙特7月产量意外下降,但美元指数强势走高令原油等以美元计价的大宗商品价格承压,同时美国石油钻井数再度攀升也令多头担忧情绪加重。

美国股市在周二上涨,因一系列公司获利稳健提振投资者的乐观情绪,土耳其里拉反弹缓解危机进一歩扩散的担忧,道琼工业指数上涨112.22点,或0.45%,至25,299.92点;标准普尔500指数上涨18.03点,或0.64%,至2,839.96点;纳斯达克指数上涨51.19点,或0.65%,至7,870.89点。

个股方面,特斯拉 TSLA.O 下跌2.5%,此前公司称,组成了一个特别委员会,评估公司私有化提议,但尚未收到首席执行长马斯克的正式提议。百胜中国 YUMC.N 股价攀升4%,因有消息称,中国投资公司和DCP Capital可能收购该公司。美国杂货零售商克罗格 KR.N 股价收高2.4%,宣布将通过阿里巴巴 BABA.N 的天猫平台在中国销售其自有品牌Simple Truth产品。

日本股市周二上涨,因土耳其里拉止贬强弹,市场避险情绪暂歇,日元转贬,激励日经225指数14日以红盘22,053点开出后,指数涨幅就逐步扩大、开高走高,终场大涨2.28%或498.65点,收在22,356.08点。

个股方面,夏普小跌0.07%,盘中一度劲扬1.48%,电视用液晶面板价格1年9个月来首度扬升。日本OLED电视龙头Sony劲扬1.81%,日本OLED电视需求夯,H1销售量较去年同期飙增7倍。液晶制造/检查设备商V-Technology狂飙9.26%。中国需求旺,V-Tech上季纯益飙增3倍、创同期历史新高。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收涨,重回111关口上方。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑位于110.900一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标进一步考验111.700一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜大幅收跌,最低探至1.13288一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标超卖。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验1.13000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力看向1.14500一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜冲高回落,一度反弹至1.28264一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,双线向下延伸,RSI指标超卖。后市看来,价格考验1.27关口支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.28400一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜震荡收平,窄幅交投于1193一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标超卖。后市来看,金价关键阻力考验1200关口。下行方面,金价初步支撑看向1130一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜回落收跌,一度探高至68.35一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于66.00一线。上行方面,油价阻力位于68.70一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收涨,交投于25200一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标向上。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25400一线。下行方面,价格支撑进一步看向25000关口。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜大幅收涨,最高探至22370一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱温和,RSI指标向上。后市来看,价格支撑位考验22100一线,上方阻力位看向22500一线。

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-14

     
Market Summary
周一(8月13日)日内美国没有重要的经济数据公布,市场交易清淡,受到周五美元指数大涨的影响,周一亚市盘内美元指数在96.50震荡,美市开盘后,投资者开始结清出场,美元指数从96.49滑落,最低来到96.16,随着买盘又再次涌入,最终美元指数收在96.32。

现货黄金周一亚市早盘开于1212.20美元/金衡盎司后,金价直线坠落,并跌破1200.00美元/金衡盎司大关,欧美时段欧市金价延续跌势,金价不断走低,录得日内低点1191.40美元/金衡盎司后转盘整,最终收在1193.50美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周一收跌0.25美元,或0.37%,报67.36美元/桶。OPEC下调明年原油需求增速预期,这令油价前景蒙上阴影。7月OPEC原油产量增加4.1万桶/日至3230万桶/日。不过沙特再次让增产努力蒙上疑云。沙特上个月减少钻探活动,而美国、中国和印度也正在施压要求降低燃料价格。

美国股市在周一走低,因土耳其里拉崩跌引发的全球忧虑蔓延至华尔街。道琼工业指数下跌125.44点,或0.5%,至25,187.7点;标准普尔500指数下跌11.35点,或0.40%,至2,821.93点;纳斯达克指数下跌19.40点,或0.25%,至7,819.71点。

个股方面,流媒体服务公司网飞 NFLX.O 公布首席财务长David Wells离职,股价挫跌1.3%。摩托车制造商哈雷戴维森 HOG.N 下滑4.3%,此前美国总统特朗普发推文支持抵制该公司的行动。特斯拉公司 TSLA.O 小涨0.3%,公司首席执行官马斯克表示,正在与沙特阿拉伯的主权财富基金和其私有化计划的其它支持者洽商,但他表示,融资尚未敲定。

日本股市周一下跌,受到土耳其里拉暴贬冲击扩大影响,印度卢比等新兴国家货币也跟随里拉脚步创低,作为避险资产的日元则走高,拖累日经225指数13日重挫,终场大跌1.98%或440.65点,收21,857.43点。

个股方面,夏普大跌3.28%,夏普传将推出IoT用新型太阳能电池,可能将委外生产。PKSHA惨摔5.04%,AI夯,PKSHA上季营收暴增5成,不过财测预估维持不变。PCB厂名幸逆势狂飙17.47%。PCB订单夯,稼动率维持高水平,Meiko上季纯益飙增3倍。大冢家具逆势涨0.51%,大冢家具拚重建,传已和台湾能率集团洽谈合作。日本造船厂大跌,三井E&S重挫2.45%。川崎重工业重挫2.68%,抢输韩陆厂,日厂7月造船订单量骤减4成。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜震荡收涨,一度探低至110.097一线后反弹走高。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格关键支撑位于110关口。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标考验110.900一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收涨,低位交投于1.14000一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标超卖区附近。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验1.13000一线。上行方面,价格阻力初步看向1.15200一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜震荡收平,窄幅交投于1.27600一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,双线向下延伸,RSI指标超卖。后市看来,价格进一步考验1.27关口支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.28400一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜大幅收跌,下破1200关口。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱显现,RSI指标超卖。后市来看,金价关键阻力考验1200关口。下行方面,金价初步支撑看向1130一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收跌,一度触及日低65.70一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于66.30一线。上行方面,油价阻力位于68.70一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续回落,最低触及25141一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25400一线。下行方面,价格支撑进一步看向25000关口。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收低,一度下破22000关口后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小向下。后市来看,价格支撑位依旧考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22400一线。

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-13

     
Market Summary
週五(8月10日)日內公佈的美國7月消費者物價指數月率公佈值為0.2%,符合預期;7月核心消費者物價指數年率公佈值為2.4%,好於預期2.3%。同時美國總統特朗普宣布對土耳其鋼鋁徵收的關稅翻倍,鋁關稅調整為20%,鋼鐵關稅調整為50%。此舉推波助瀾,美元指數強勢上漲,並跨越96關口,最高觸及96.47,並加速了土耳其里拉的暴跌。歐元/美元之所以跌破1.15000大關至2018年來新低1.13868,主要就是受到同屬歐元區的土耳其里拉暴跌的拖累。

現貨黃金週五亞市早盤開於1212.10美元/金衡盎司後,金價窄幅波動,多空膠著,但空方略微佔優。歐市金價大幅下挫,錄得日內低點1205.40美元/金衡盎司後反彈,多頭再度上攻。美市多頭拉升,金價不斷走高,錄得日內高點1216.85美元/金衡盎司後轉跌,金價再度跳水,失去此前部分漲幅後轉盤整,終收於1211.00美元/金衡盎司。

國際原油週五收漲0.91美元,或1.36%,報67.61美元/桶。雖然美國和土耳其的關係緊張打壓了投資者對原油等風險資產的買需,不過伊朗制裁結合其他地區的產量問題,將令全球原油市場供應面面臨挑戰,因此為油價帶來強勁提振。

美國股市在週五走低,其中基礎材料、金融和科技等下跌的板塊帶領股指走低。道瓊工業指數下跌196.09點,或0.77%,至25,313.14點;標準普爾500指數下跌20.30點,或0.71%,至2,833.28點;納斯達克指數下跌52.67點,或0.67%,至7,839.11點。

個股方面,沃爾瑪公司 WMT上漲1.31%;雪佛龍公司 CVX上漲了0.66%。英特爾公司 INTC上漲2.57%;卡特彼勒公司 CAT下跌1.88%。福斯公司 FLS股票大漲至一年高點,漲幅為2.52%。 Aralez Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ARLZ股票大跌至歷史低點,下挫83.14%。Trade Desk Inc TTD股票大漲至歷史高點,拉升37.13%。

日本股市週五下跌,受半導體相關類股大跌拖累,因之前摩根士丹利下調了對美國芯片行業的看法,這抵消了日本第二季經濟增長數據好於預期帶來的提振。日經指數收低1.3%至22,298.08點,為7月12日以來最低收位。

個股方面,芯片設備生產商東京電子跌3.6%,愛德萬測試跌4.9%,迪恩士跌3.9%,矽片生產商勝高驟跌4.7%。除芯片相關個股外,週五下跌股中還包括保險及航運股,第一生命控股收跌3.3%;商船三井下跌2.1%。與此同時,富士膠片大漲3.5%,此前該公司稱將回購至多1,000億日元的股票。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜回落收跌,一度探低至110.495一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑位于110.500一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标考验110.900一线。

 

EURUSD

從日線圖上看,歐元/美元隔夜延續收跌,刷新新低至1.13868一線。技術指標上,MACD看跌動能柱擴張,RSI指標向下逼近超賣區。後市看來,價格支撐進一步考驗1.13000一線。上行方面,價格阻力初步看向1.15000一線。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜延续收跌,再创新低至1.27229一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,双线向下延伸,RSI指标超卖。后市看来,价格进一步考验1.27关口支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.28400一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜震荡收跌,交投于1212一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价阻力考验1220.00一线。下行方面,金价关键支撑考验1200关口。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,一度触及日低66.13一线反弹走高。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于66.00关口。上行方面,油价阻力位于68.70一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜回落收跌,最低触及25212一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱显现,双线死叉,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25410一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25200一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜大幅收跌,逼近22000关口附近寻求支撑。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下。后市来看,价格支撑位考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22400一线。