Next week, economic data to be released in Canada includes the March jobs report, January trade balance and the PMI. According to analysts at National Bank of Canada, there is no reason to expect a sharp drop in employment.
“In Canada, March’s labour force survey will attract the most attention. After wild gyrations between November and January, job creation returned to a more normal path in February with 15.4K jobs added in the month. Such a performance is roughly in line with what we expect to be the monthly average for the rest of the year. Considering that hiring intentions remained high among Canadian businesses in March, there is no reason to expect a sharp drop in employment. Consequently, we are calling for a 20K increase in the month, a development that should leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.8%.”
“We’ll also get data on January’s merchandise trade balance. Energy exports may have shrunk in the month in light of falling prices. The resulting negative impact on the overall trade balance may have been compounded by an increase in nominal imports after the largest monthly drop in six months in January (- 4.3%). All in all, the trade deficit may have widened to C$2.50 billion. Markit’s manufacturing PMI for March will also be released this week.”