Lo que necesita saber el viernes 23 de julio:

El dólar cerró el jueves en su mayoría a la baja en el mercado de divisas, aunque más alto frente al euro. El BCE fue el evento principal del día. Como se anticipó ampliamente, el banco central decidió dejar sin cambios los tipos de interés de las operaciones principales de financiación, la facilidad marginal de crédito y la facilidad de depósito en 0.00%, 0.25% y -0.50%, respectivamente. Los formuladores de políticas reafirmaron que el PEPP continuaría funcionando significativamente más rápido que a principios de año.

Sobre la tan esperada nueva orientación prospectiva, el Consejo de Gobierno señaló que las tasas de interés se mantendrán en los niveles actuales o más bajos “hasta que vea que la inflación alcance el dos por ciento mucho antes del final de su horizonte de proyección y de manera duradera durante el resto de la proyección, y juzga que el progreso realizado en la inflación subyacente está suficientemente avanzado “.

Las acciones asiáticas y europeas avanzaron, pero Wall Street luchó por registrar ganancias modestas. Las cifras macroeconómicas estadounidenses más suaves de lo anticipado afectaron el estado de ánimo del mercado. Los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos alcanzaron nuevos máximos semanales, pero terminaron el día en números bajistas.

El dólar australiano fue el de mejor desempeño entre las monedas vinculadas a las materias primas, flirteando con el nivel de 0.7400, mientras que el CAD fue el peor, terminando el día sin cambios frente al dólar.

El oro se recuperó modestamente después de un comienzo suave del día, terminando el día en alrededor de 1.807$. Los precios del crudo subieron con firmeza y el WTI cerró el día en 71.80$ el barril.

El viernes, la atención se centrará en los datos relacionados con el crecimiento, ya que Markit publicará las estimaciones preliminares de sus PMI de julio para la UE y los EE.UU.

  • AUD/USD holds onto corrective pullback from yearly low, portrayed the last two days.
  • Greenback refreshed weekly lows before closing slightly up, stimulus optimism, data play their role.
  • ECB was a dull affair despite being dovish, Aussie covid conditions remain grim.
  • Preliminary numbers of July PMIs will direct intraday moves with eyes on next week’s FOMC.

AUD/USD picks up bids to 0.7384, printing three-day recovery from year’s low, amid early Friday morning in Asia. Although the US dollar pullback and cautious optimism in the markets helped the quote to gain the most among G10 currency, the Aussie pair stays on the way to print a fourth weekly loss amid the coronavirus concerns.

A gradually firming hope of getting US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending passed through the Senate joins a bit relief to the policymakers in deciding the debt ceiling seems to pave the way for the market’s somewhat brighter mood despite the covid woes.

Although US Senators pushed back the infrastructure spending vote to Monday, Democrats are too optimistic are ready to work over the weekend to get their leader’s plan passed. On the other hand, the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said, per Bloomberg, “US lawmakers likely have until October or November to raise or suspend the debt limit.” This will avail the American diplomats a bit more time than the July 31 deadline when the debt limit will be $22 trillion for the last time, set in 2019.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) matched wide market expectations of keeping the monetary policy unchanged with dovish forward guidance, suitable to the new inflation targeting method. While the same helped the US dollar to recover early Thursday losses, the greenback couldn’t gain much against Antipodeans than the EUR.

On the contrary, Australia’s largest daily infections since September 2020 and a surprise spike in the US Jobless Claims seem to challenge the sentiment. Also, the escalating US-China tussles, amid American support to Canberra’s trade dispute with Beijing, China’s National Security Law action in Hong Kong and US ties with Taiwan, add pressure on the market’s mood and the AUD/USD prices due to its risk barometer status.

Amid these plays, Wall Street registers the least daily gains in three days whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields eased to 1.27%.

Looking forward, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) PMIs for July will be the immediate catalysts for AUD/USD ahead of the US initial activity data for the said month. It should be noted that RBA Governor Philip Lowe was to speak around 22:45 GMT of Thursday, Friday for Asia, but the event was postponed by the organizers, due to the covid outbreak, to unspecified time and hence it becomes a surprise. Even so, the quote remains on the bear’s table as the Delta covid variant has started fueling the death toll.

Technical analysis

Short-term AUD/USD buyers remain hopeful until the quote stays above tops marked in September and November 2020, around 0.7340–45. However, early July lows and highs marked during August 2020 offer nearby key resistance around 0.7415. Hence, an area between 0.7340 and 0.7415 seems to restrict the pair’s nearby moves.

 

  • NZD/USD moves in on the critical daily resistance.
  • NZD/USD bears are seeking a break of channel support.

NZD/USD bears are moving in at a critical level of resistance and are seeking a break of 4-hour support which guards channel support and prospects of a lower daily low. 

NZD/USD daily chart

The price is meeting a 61.8% Fibonacci confluence with prior lows and the 21-day EMA which would be expected to act as a tough level of resistance. 

Bears will be seeking a break of the dynamic trendline support to target fresh lows towards 0.6850.

NZD/USD 4-hour chart

The bears will need to get below the 4-hour support for a higher probable ride to lower lows.

  • EUR/JPY bears are eyeing a significant downside correction on the monthly time frame. 
  • The price is testing a critical daily and 4-hour resistance area. 

The following is a bearish perspective of the current market structure in EUR/JPY across the time frames, from the monthly chart all the way down to the 4-hour chart. 

Monthly chart

The price has broken below monthly dynamic support that would now be expected to act as a counter trendline while price moves back to test the old resistance in a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 127.00.

Weekly chart

The weekly chart shows that the price is leaving a bearish wick and should the week close with a lower weekly closing low, then the wick would be expected to be filled on the lower time frames in due course. 

Daily chart

Meanwhile, from a daily perspective, the price has corrected into resistance which is so far holding up. 

Expectations are for a downside continuation at this juncture. 

4-hour chart

From the 4-hour chart, we can see that the price is moving in on the 21-EMA and prior lows which are the neckline of the M-formation.

This are would be expected to act as resistance, resulting in a move to the downside and towards the monthly target area over time. 

  • Los alcistas del USD/CAD permanecen en control por la firmeza del dólar estadounidenses.
  • El sentimiento del petróleo y el BoC de EE.UU. apoya al CAD, pero los datos técnicos semanales siguen siendo alcistas.

En el momento de redactar este informe, el USD/CAD cotiza en 1.2575 y ligeramente en un 0.14% después de subir desde un mínimo de 1.2529 y alcanzar un máximo de 1.2594. El lunes, el par tocó un mínimo de cinco meses en 1.2807.

El dólar estadounidense está más firme el jueves después de que ayudara la orientación moderada del Banco Central Europeo.

El BCE se ha comprometido a mantener las tasas de interés en mínimos históricos durante más tiempo, ya que el banco central advierte que la variante Delta del nuevo coronavirus representa un riesgo para la recuperación de la zona euro.

El DXY opera justo por debajo de 93 después de cotizar ayer en el nivel más alto desde el 1 de abril cerca de 93.191. En el momento de redactar este informe, el índice es un 0.13% el nivel más alto 92.89 y ha viajado entre un mínimo de 92.507 y un máximo de 92,923. Se esperan más ganancias y eventualmente podría probar el máximo del 31 de marzo cerca de 93.437.

Mientras tanto, el precio del petróleo permanece ofertado y es un factor de soporte para el CAD.

Las expectativas de suministros más ajustados hasta fin de año han ayudado al petróleo a recuperarse de la caída del 8% en el WTI desde el comienzo de la semana.

Los precios del crudo estadounidense subieron un 1.9% a 71.57$ el barril.

En datos nacionales, una estimación preliminar de Statistics Canada mostró que las ventas de manufactura aumentaron 1.9% en junio, lideradas por la industria de equipos de transporte.

De cara al futuro, los mercados seguirán el informe de ventas minoristas canadienses de mayo el próximo viernes, lo que podría ofrecer más pistas sobre la fortaleza de la economía nacional.

En cuanto al posicionamiento, los últimos datos de la CFTC han demostrado que el posicionamiento especulativo en CAD se mantuvo, incluso después de la reciente fortaleza del USD, considerablemente sesgado hacia el área neta larga (+20% de interés abierto), y por encima de su banda de desviación estándar de 1 .

El BoC envió recientemente un mensaje ampliamente optimista sobre la recuperación y dejó sin cambios su orientación a futuro para el 2S22, lo que ha respaldado a la moneda.

Se espera que el banco central ponga fin a las compras de activos para fines de 2021, lo que permitirá a los mercados especular sobre un alza anterior a la proyectada.

Análisis técnicos

Contrariamente a los fundamentos del BoC, la perspectiva técnica cuenta una historia diferente.

El patrón de cabeza y hombros inversos alcistas deben notarse en el marco de tiempo semanal después de la ruptura de la resistencia de la línea de tendencia dinámica.

What you need to know on Friday, July 23:

The greenback ended Thursday mostly lower across the FX board, although higher against the EUR. The ECB was the main event of the day. As widely anticipated, the central bank decided to leave the interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50%, respectively. Policymakers reaffirmed that the PEPP would continue to run significantly faster than at the beginning of the year.

On the so-long awaited new forward guidance, the Government Council noted that interest rates will remain at present or lower levels “until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced.”

Asian and European equities advanced, but Wall Street struggled to post modest gains. Softer-than-anticipated US macroeconomic figures dented the market’s mood. US Treasury yields peaked at fresh weekly highs but finished the day in the red.

The Australian dollar was the best performer among commodity-linked currencies, flirting with the 0.7400 level, while the CAD was the worst, ending the day unchanged vs the greenback.

Gold recovered modestly after a soft start of the day, ending the day at around $1,807. Crude oil prices edged firmly up, with WTI ending the day at $71.80 a barrel.

The focus on Friday will be on growth-related data as Markit will release the preliminary estimates of its July PMIs for the EU and the US.

Bitcoin price jumps as JP Morgan plans to offer retail clients access to cryptocurrency funds

 


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  • Technicals and fundamentals are conflicting in the oil market.
  • Tail risks, supply-demand dynamics point to the upside, but technically, the bears are in play below 72.50.

WTI crude oil prices climbed on Thursday, currently trading at $71.81 and higher by 2.2% following a move from $69.88 that reached a high of $72.00.

Expectations of tighter supplies through 2021 has helped the price of oil to continue to recover following a sharp move higher the prior day.

Oil had been pressured a the start of the week after members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, announced that they would agree on a deal to boost oil supply.

The news that 400,000 barrels per day would be coming on to the market between August to December to meet growing demand sank energy prices momentarily.

The combination of the fear of the spread in the delta variant also hurt the industry. 

However, investors rethought the outlook and figured that demand was still set to outstrip supply in the second half of the year.

”Look past the noise, energy markets are set to tighten at a fast clip,” analysts at TD Securities argued.

”We estimate that the market will remain on a tightening trajectory.”

”We argue that firm demand, hindered shale supply and the cautious monthly increase in supply from OPEC+ should not be enough to prevent a deep deficit in the coming month, fueling stronger prices and tightening spreads.,” the analysts added. 

”Most importantly, US drivers continue to fuel the recovery in energy demand, where mobility restrictions may be less likely to take place. Overall, the data doesn’t support the demand fears.”

Meanwhile, US Energy Information Administration data showed that crude inventories in the United States, the world’s top oil consumer, rose unexpectedly by 2.1 million barrels last week to 439.7 million barrels, up for the first time since May.

Inventories at the Cushing, hit their lowest since January 2020 last week.

Gasoline and diesel demand, according to EIA figures, also jumped last week.

WTI, technical analysis

The price is testing the critical resistance area between 70.20 and 72.50.

The confluence of the 61.8% and 21-day EMA makes for an important price range from which a breakout would be expected to see a sustained upside continuation. 

On the other hand, failures here could well lead to a downside extension. 

 

  • El EUR/USD invirtió su dirección después de subir a la zona de 1.1830.
  • El BCE dejó su configuración de política sin cambios como se esperaba, revisó su orientación.
  • El USD recuperó fuerza durante las horas de negociación estadounidenses.

Después de pasar la primera mitad del día moviéndose lateralmente en un rango ajustado alrededor de 1.1800, el par EUR/USD ganó tracción y subió a un máximo diario de 1,1831 antes de revertir su dirección. Al momento de escribir, el par estaba perdiendo un 0.25% en el día a 1.1763.

La nueva guía del BCE apunta a un cambio moderado en las perspectivas

Como era de esperar, el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) dejó sin cambios los tipos de interés de las operaciones principales de financiación, la facilidad marginal de crédito y la facilidad de depósito en el 0,00%, el 0,25% y el -0,50%, respectivamente. En su declaración de política, el BCE revisó su orientación a futuro para señalar que permitirá un rebasamiento temporal de la inflación antes de tomar medidas políticas.

Al comentar sobre la declaración de política del BCE y los comentarios de la presidenta Christine Lagarde, “promesas hechas, promesas cumplidas: la presidenta del Banco Central Europeo, Christine Lagarde, ha realizado un cambio de política moderado, superando las expectativas del mercado y desafiando a los miembros agresivos”, dijo el analista de FXStreet, Yohay Elam. “Eso debería mantener al EUR/USD deprimido, incluso si el dólar permanece a la defensiva”.

Además de la renovada debilidad del EUR, la resistencia del USD hizo que el EUR/USD siguiera presionando a la baja durante la sesión estadounidense. Con los principales índices de Wall Street luchando por extender el rally de dos días el jueves, el índice del dólar estadounidense subió y se vio por última vez registrando pequeñas ganancias en 92.87.

Los datos de EE.UU. revelaron el jueves que las solicitudes iniciales de desempleo aumentaron a 419.000 en la semana que terminó el 17 de julio, en comparación con la estimación de los analistas de 350.000.

El viernes, IHS Markit publicará el informe preliminar PMI de servicios y manufactura para la zona del euro, Alemania y EE.UU.

Niveles técnicos

                           

Commenting on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy statement, “the ECB’s guidance on rates received a slightly dovish update, as expected,” noted Rabobank analysts.

Key quotes

“By shifting their focus on reaching the 2% aim “well ahead” of the end of their projection horizon, the ECB conveyed the message that its monetary accommodation will be persistent.”

“We believe that the ECB’s reaction function has not changed materially. However, with more emphasis on the midpoint of the staff projections, the ECB may have added some downward bias to the markets’ response to inflation data and forecasts.”

  • EUR/USD reversed its direction after rising to 1.1830 area.
  • ECB left its policy settings unchanged as expected, revised its guidance.
  • USD regathered strength during the American trading hours.

After spending the first half of the day moving sideways in a tight range around 1.1800, the EUR/USD pair gained traction and climbed to a daily high of 1.1831 before reversing its direction. As of writing, the pair was losing 0.25% on a daily basis at 1.1763.

ECB’s new guidance hints at dovish shift in outlook

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) left the interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50%, respectively. In its policy statement, the ECB revised its forward guidance to note that it will allow a temporary overshoot of inflation before taking policy action. 

Commenting on the ECB’s policy statement and President Christine Lagarde’s remarks, “promises made, promises kept – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has delivered a dovish policy shift, exceeding market expectations and defying hawkish members,” said FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam. “That should keep EUR/USD depressed even if the dollar remains on the back foot.” 

ECB Quick Analysis: Three dovish changes hit EUR/USD, more could be in store.

In addition to the renewed EUR weakness, the USD’s resilience caused EUR/USD to continue to push lower during the American session. With Wall Street’s main indexes struggling to extend the two-day rally on Thursday, the US Dollar Index edged higher and was last seen posting small gains at 92.87.

The data from the US revealed on Thursday that the Initial Jobless Claims rose to 419,000 in the week ending July 17, compared to analysts’ estimate of 350,000.

On Friday, the IHS Markit will release the preliminary Services and Manufacturing PMI report for the euro area, Germany and the US.

Technical levels to watch for