Lo que necesita saber el miércoles 5 de mayo:

El dólar estadounidense fue el ganador absoluto este martes, avanzando contra la mayoría de sus principales rivales. El dólar se vio impulsado por datos locales que sugerían una mejora económica continua, pero también por los comentarios de la secretaria del Tesoro de Estados Unidos, Janet Yellen, quien dijo que “las tasas de interés tendrán que subir un poco para asegurarse de que nuestra economía no se sobrecaliente”. Yellen participará en otro evento a principios de la próxima sesión asiática, y sus palabras pueden estimular ganancias adicionales en dólares. El EUR/USD terminó el día justo por encima del nivel de 1.2000.

Brexit vuelve a ser el centro de atención. La libra se mantuvo moderada y cerró el día por debajo de 1.3900 frente al dólar. El gobierno francés rechazó la última regulación británica para la pesca en sus aguas cerca de las Islas del Canal. Los pescadores franceses se han quejado de que se les impide operar en aguas británicas debido a las dificultades para obtener licencias, un problema relacionado con el Brexit que se ha intensificado en las últimas semanas.

Las monedas vinculadas a las materias primas se relajaron frente al dólar, aunque la caída del dólar canadiense fue limitada, ya que los precios del petróleo se dispararon. El WTI cerró en 65.70$ el barril, respaldado por el resurgimiento de la demanda. El oro, por otro lado, coqueteó con 1.800$ antes de caer bruscamente y terminó el día en 1.778,90$ la onza troy.

Los índices europeos y estadounidenses cerraron principalmente en números rojos después de un fuerte comienzo del día. Los comentarios de Yellen pesaron. Los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro de EE.UU. bajaron, con el rendimiento a 10 años operando en 1.59%

 

  • AUD/USD holds recovery moves from three-week low in a tight range.
  • RBA’s cautious optimism, downbeat data from Australia also favored bears.
  • Risk dwindles amid mixed signals from Yellen, US data and covid woes.
  • Second-tier Aussie data may offer immediate direction, risk catalysts stay on the driver’s seat.

AUD/USD fades bounce off three-week low while taking rounds to 0.7110-15 amid the initial Asian session trading on Wednesday. Even so, the Aussie pair refrains from declining further below the previous day’s low, also the lowest since April 14 as traders seek fresh direction after adhering to the bears the previous day.

Teasing bear’s return?

Following its multiple failures to cross 0.7820 during the latest April, AUD/USD dropped to the lowest in three weeks the previous day as downbeat data and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious optimism, not to forget risk-off mood.

Australia’s March month trade numbers came in weaker than expected ahead of the RBA’s comments suggesting extended easy money policies. Even so, the Aussie central bank revised up economic growth forecasts while cutting down on unemployment rate expectations.

Read: AUD/USD fails to cheer RBA’s cautious optimism above 0.7700

On the other hand, comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen troubled traders as she initially backed interest rate hike, indirectly, before saying, “not predicting or recommending” such moves.

Elsewhere, the coronavirus (COVID-19) tension escalates in Asia as Japan’s largest prefecture (by area) asked for further activity restrictions to tame the pandemic’s spread while India keeps suffering from the deadly virus despite global help.

Meanwhile, US trade figures and factory orders eased in March whereas vaccine developments have been positive of late.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks closed mixed with Dow Jones Industrial Average’s (DJI30) bounce during the last hours. However, the US Treasury yields remain downbeat, propelling the US dollar index (DXY).

Moving on, AUD/USD traders may keep their eyes on the risk catalysts while the second-tier activity and housing numbers from Australia may also provide near-term direction. It should also be noted that the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for April will be the key afterward.

Read: US ISM Services PMI April Preview: Inflation readings remain key as recovery gains strength

Technical analysis

Despite staying above the 0.7700 threshold and 50-day EMA level near 0.7710, AUD/USD needs to cross the 0.7770 hurdle to recall the buyers.

 

  • NZD/USD stays pressured, eases of late, following RBNZ’s bi-annual FSR.
  • Market sentiment dwindles on Yellen’s comments, covid woes.
  • Strong US data adds to the greenback’s strength.
  • New Zealand Q1 employment data, RBNZ press conference and risk catalysts will be the key.

NZD/USD seesaws around 0.7150-45 following the release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Financial Stability Review (FSR) amid the early Wednesday morning in Asia. In doing so, the kiwi pair sellers seem to catch a breather after dropping to the three-week low ahead of the key data and events.

RBNZ’s bi-annual FSR initially praised New Zealand’s (NZ) economic recovery from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic before citing fears of vulnerabilities in the financial system, despite the system being sound. The central bank also said, “New capital rules will start being implemented from 1 October 2021.”

Read: RBNZ: The financial system is sound but vulnerable

It’s worth mentioning that the NZD/USD prices have been consolidating the latest losses after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen took a U-turn from her initial comments that suggesting an interest rate hike is favorable to the US, which backed the risk-off mood. Not only Yellen’s comments but rising fears of the covid in Asia and RBNZ Governor’s sickness also refreshed multi-day low during Tuesday.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed, after the initial downbeat performance, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.5 basis points (bps) to 1.59%. Further, the US dollar index (DXY) became the market favorite due to its safe-haven status.

Looking forward, the first quarter (Q1) NZ jobs report will the immediate catalyst for the NZD/USD ahead of RBNZ’s press conference where Governor Adrian Orr will be absent. It should be noted that the likely slack in the jobs report may weigh on the NZD/USD and hence traders should remain cautious.

“Our forecast sits between these scenarios – we think that both employment and participation rose in Q1, but because matching issues in the labor market are weighing on jobs growth, the unemployment rate may rise slightly,” said the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) ahead of the event.

Also read: New Zealand Employment Preview: Participation rate holds the key as jobless rate seen steady

Technical analysis

As NZD/USD sellers battle 21-day and 50-day SMA convergence, near 0.7150-45, to keep the reins, an upward sloping trend line from April 01, around 0.7115, also acts as the key support to watch during the quote’s further weakness. Alternatively, the 0.7200 threshold guards the kiwi pair’s short-term recovery moves.

 

In the May Financial Stability Report, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said that the financial system is sound but vulnerable.

”While New Zealand has so far come through the COVID-19 pandemic better than initially feared, vulnerabilities in the financial system remain,” Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says in releasing the May Financial Stability Report.

“Successful public health measures along with substantial monetary and fiscal policy support, helped to prevent many business failures and a larger rise in unemployment. Key New Zealand export prices have also been resilient, with dairy prices at their highest level in several years.

“Yet, despite doing better than feared, border restrictions, supply chain disruptions, and social distancing have reduced activity in affected sectors, and some businesses remain vulnerable.”

NZD/USD implications

Meanwhile, the NZD/USD was pressured overnight on a resurging greenback. 

NZD/USD fell from a high of 0.7203 to a low of 0.7115. There was little reaction in the market to this particular event though. 

La fortaleza del USD de base amplia ayudó al USD/CAD a subir el martes.
El aumento de los precios del crudo limita la subida del USD/CAD por el momento.
Canadá registró un déficit comercial de 1.100 millones de dólares canadienses en marzo.

El par USD/CAD rompió por encima de 1.2300 el martes y alcanzó su nivel más alto en casi una semana en 1.2350 antes de entrar en una fase de consolidación. Al momento de escribir, el par subió un 0.26% en el día a 1.2308.

DXY se mantiene por encima de 91.00

Tras la fuerte caída del lunes, el índice del dólar estadounidense (DXY) logró revertir su dirección mientras el dólar capitalizaba los flujos de refugio seguro. Con los principales índices de Wall Street abriéndose profundamente a la baja, el DXY alcanzó su nivel más alto desde el 22 de abril en 91.40.

La Oficina del Censo de EE. UU. Informó el martes que los pedidos de fábrica aumentaron un 1.1% en marzo, en comparación con la estimación de los analistas de 1.3%.

Mientras tanto, los datos publicados por Statistics Canada revelaron que Canadá registró un déficit en el comercio internacional de mercancías de 1.100 millones de dólares canadienses en marzo. Esta lectura fue peor que la expectativa del mercado de un superávit de C$0.7 mil millones y permitió que el impulso alcista del USD/CAD se mantuviera intacto.

Por otro lado, los precios del petróleo crudo continuaron aumentando en medio de la mejora de las perspectivas de la demanda de energía. El barril de West Texas Intermediate (WTI) cotiza actualmente a su nivel más alto desde mediados de marzo a 65.70$ ganando casi un 2% en el día y ayudando al dólar canadiense relacionado con las materias primas a limitar sus pérdidas.

Niveles técnicos 

      

  • Lockdowns continue to ease and oil demand is on the up.
  • Bulls are looking to a run towards the $70 handle.

Oil prices were on the bid on Tuesday, buoyed as more US states eased lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract more travellers, which would help offset weakened fuel demand in India as COVID-19 cases soar.

At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $65.73 travelling between a low of $64.32 and a high of $65.82.

The price is up almost 2% at the time of writing. 

US West Texas Intermediate futures also rose 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $64.63 a barrel, after gaining 1.4% on Monday.

Later today, traders will be watching out for reports on crude and product stockpiles from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Libyan woes are easing and Iran is inching towards a negotiated agreement and OPEC+ sticking to their cautious unwinding.

However, analysts at TD Securities said ”the powerful recovery in key markets is outweighing supply-side concerns. ”

”n this context, crude prices can overshoot to the upside in the near-term, but a still massive amount of OPEC+ spare capacity makes a sustainable move above $70/bbl unlikely.”

Elsewhere, stocks have been trading defensively amid declines in technology stocks and comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that the Fed may need to raise interest rates somewhat to prevent the economy from overheating. 

There will be a focus on this week’s Nonfarm Payrolls for further clues on how the US economic recovery is holding up. 

 

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the WSJ CEO Council says that she’s not predicting or recommending rates increase.

She doesn’t see the rescue package overheating the economy. 

She also said, ”we don’t have an adequate cryptocurrency regulatory framework”.

The interview ended and had little reaction in the markets. 

Earlier, equities had traded defensively amid declines in technology stocks and comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that the Fed may need to raise interest rates somewhat to prevent the economy from overheating, analysts at ANZ bank explained. 

 

 

What you need to know on Wednesday, May 5:

 The American dollar was the overall winner this Tuesday, advancing against most of its major rivals. The greenback got boosted by local data suggesting continued economic improvement, but also by comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said that  “interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat.” Yellen will participate in another event early in the upcoming Asian session, and her words my spur additional dollar gains. EUR/USD ended the day just above the 1.2000 level.

Brexit returns to the spotlight. The pound remained subdued and closed the day sub-1.3900 against the greenback. The French government rejected Britain’s latest regulation for fishing in its waters near the Channel Islands.  French fishermen have complained that they are being prevented from operating in British waters because of difficulties in obtaining licenses, a Brexit-related issue that has escalated in the last few weeks.

Commodity-linked currencies eased against the greenback, although the Canadian dollar’s decline was limited, as oil prices soared. WTI settled at $ 65.70 a barrel, back by resurgent demand. Gold, on the other hand, flirted with 1,800 before turning sharply lower and finished the day at $ 1,778.90 a troy ounce.

European and US indexes closed mostly in the red after a strong start to the day. Yellen comments weighed. US Treasury yields eased, with that on the 10-year note down to 1.59%.

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