• El EUR/USD ha subido otro 0,21% el lunes, pero podría haber sido peor para el dólar.
  • Ha habido un rechazo en un máximo anterior cerca de 1.1965.

Gráfico de 1 hora

Parece que la capitulación del USD aún no ha terminado ya que el dólar se vendió nuevamente el lunes. El EUR/USD había mostrado signos de fortaleza antes de que los alcistas chocaran contra una pared de ladrillos en el máximo anterior del 18 de agosto en 1.1965. Más adelante en la semana, hay potencialmente más volatilidad por venir, ya que las nóminas no agrícolas están de vuelta junto con una gran cantidad de PMI.

Mirando el gráfico ahora es fácil ver dónde los alcistas encontraron resistencia. Ahora el precio ha retrocedido más de 30 pips y el siguiente soporte está un poco hacia abajo en la línea roja cerca de 1,1880. Esto no significa que los alcistas hayan renunciado a sacar el punto alto. Si el nivel se rompe, la tendencia alcista vuelve a la normalidad.

Los indicadores muestran una imagen mixta. El índice de fuerza relativa tiene un patrón de divergencia. Esto es cuando el precio está alcanzando máximos más altos, pero el indicador hace un máximo más bajo. Es tradicionalmente un patrón bajista y puede indicar que el impulso alcista se está agotando. El histograma MACD se está sumergiendo a la baja, pero las líneas de señal están muy por encima del punto medio y esto se considera alcista.

El gráfico sigue siendo bastante alcista y los alcistas podrían estar haciendo una pausa para respirar antes de montar otro desafío para romper los máximos recientes. Durante la semana hay muchos catalizadores y se podría eliminar el nivel.

Niveles técnicos 

             

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, The Sun came out with the news suggesting the 5p increase in the fuel duty by the UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak in his November month budget proposal.

Key quotes

He is considering ending a ten-year freeze on the tax in his autumn ­Budget to help pay for Covid-19.

The move would automatically add 2p a liter at the pumps, as the price would go up in line with inflation. But a Treasury source says it has plans for an extra 3p on top.

Fed-up motorists urged the Chancellor to scrap plans for the tax hike.

Critics said it would be “madness” to raise the cost of driving while the Government tries to coax people back to the office. 

A Treasury source said officials were also told to look at the impact of a double-digit increase as part of more extreme measures that could be used to raise funds. But a 5p hike was put in the “realistic” category of options.

FX implications

Despite being a price-negative factor for the GBP/USD pair, the news failed to witness any major market reaction considering the lack of activity of the Cable traders amid the early Asian session. That said, the quote seesaws around 1.3370 by the press time.

US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin recently crossed wires, via Fox Business, while speaking on the coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus discussions between the American policymakers. The Trump administration member blamed House Speak Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Leader of the Senate Chuck Schumer for the deadlock. The diplomat also said to discuss the much-awaited aid package with the Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and other party members.

Key quotes

Continuing to discuss coronavirus aid with McConnell, other Congressional Republicans.

We can always do more if a trillion isn’t enough.

Federal Reserve has done an extraordinarily good job on COVID-19 response.

Hopes McConnell will introduce another coronavirus relief bill next week.

FX implications

The news helps to rebuild the market sentiment while helping AUD/USD to bounce off 0.7380 towards 0.7390. However, cautious sentiment ahead of a busy day in Asia keeps the risk-tone pressured after Monday’s sluggish performance.

  • GBP/USD trades 0.16% higher on Monday but hits another YTD high.
  • There are two key resistance points the bulls need to target.

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

GBP/USD has been on a great run of late and although it was a bank holiday in the UK the bulls were still out. The price hit a high of 1.3396 narrowly missing out on the 1.34 handle. This is the highest level in the pair since 16th December 2019 and the 2019 high at 1.3515 is the next resistance (black line).

Looking closer at the chart the psychological resistance at 1.34 matched up with a trendline at the top of the wedge formation. If the price does break out of the pattern then the aforementioned 1.3515 level could be the zone that the bulls target next. 

The indicators are still looking positive at the moment too. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and just under the overbought zone. The MACD histogram is still green and the signal lines are holding some way above the mid-level. 

Overall the pair is still in a firm uptrend and it seems like there is no stopping the trend. The dollar has been weakening against most of its major counterparts for a while now. The non-farm payroll data could be a catalyst for a change and tomorrow the lasted Manufacturing PMI data is due. 

GBP/USD breaking higher

Additional levels

 

  • USD net long positioning dropping as markets bet against the US dollar.
  • Kiwi makes a fresh high vs the greenback despite the prospects of RBNZ action.

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6731 following a day of dollar weakness again as investors scale back positioning in the currency and take note of the out of control spread of the virus in America.

US COVID cases have now topped six million, with infection rates among college campuses accelerating and presenting challenges on the containment front. 

Leveraged funds sold USD for the seventh straight week while asset managers bought it after seven consecutive weeks of net selling.

The DXY weakened on Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole address, indicating a dovish-for-longer shift in US monetary policy.

RBNZ out-doved by the Fed

This will allow for flexibility in inflation targeting towards achieving their maximum employment goal.

The adoption of average inflation targeting and tolerance for inflation overshot suggests a number of bearish factors for the markets to consider when seeking a fair value in the greenback.

The markets are of the mind that it is now clear that interest rate increases are a very distant proposition and right away, markets will not be expecting a higher yield from the dollar for which it had enjoyed for so long.

Also, real USD rates will likely remain low if the Fed succeeds in generating higher domestic price pressures, something which has been supporting the price of gold which is negatively correlated to the US

This has been (and looks set to continue to be) a key feature of the market, and speaks of the NZD performing less well on crosses than against the USD, analysts at ANZ bank explained, adding:

Having been “out-doved” by the Fed, the RBNZ is likely going to up its own dovish rhetoric in coming weeks as it does what it can to lean into the NZD, which is so crucial for growth and inflation. Tomorrow’s speech by RBNZ Governor Orr thus presents downside risks for the Kiwi.

 

NZD/USD levels

 

  • El EUR/JPY subió un 0,75% debido a que el JPY lucha en todos los ámbitos.
  • Los alcistas se han detenido en seco en 126,70.

Gráfico de 4 horas 

Al comienzo de la semana, el EUR/JPY subió y el yen japonés tuvo un rendimiento inferior al de la mayoría de sus principales contrapartes. El cruce EUR/JPY ha chocado contra una pared de ladrillos en la ola anterior de alta resistencia.

El precio todavía se encuentra en una tendencia alcista bastante decente y desde que el precio alcanzó un mínimo de 114,42 a principios de mayo, el par ha estado alcanzando máximos y mínimos más altos. Si la tendencia alcista va a continuar, es necesario romper el máximo mencionado de 126,75.

Los indicadores parecen bastante optimistas. El histograma MACD está en verde y las líneas de señal aún permanecen por encima de la línea cero. El índice de fuerza relativa está por encima de 50 pero la ola actual es más baja que la anterior.

Mañana podría ser un día crucial ya que el PMI de la UE, el PMI alemán y los datos de inflación de la UE están listos para ser publicados. En el lado negativo, la línea de tendencia azul con pendiente ascendente podría ser una zona de soporte junto con la línea horizontal roja en 125.14.

Niveles técnicos

                     

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 230.01 points, or 0.8%, to 28,423.86.
  • The S&P 500 dropped 8.11 points, or 0.23%, to 3,499.9.
  • The Nasdaq Composite added 79.82 points, or 0.68%, to 11,775.46.

US stocks were elevated on Monday following the Federal Reserve’s tolerance of higher inflation levels, Chinese industry expansion, hopes for a vaccine and a firm tech sector.

On the other hand, there were the usual geopolitical concerns, but overall, the start to the week was positive in term of risk appetite despite lower closes for both the DJIA and S&P.

While the S&P boasted its steepest August percentage gain in more than three decades, the index was unable to hold on to the lofty positive territory and ended lower.

Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 230.01 points, or 0.8%, to 28,423.86.

The S&P 500 dropped 8.11 points, or 0.23%, to 3,499.9 while the Nasdaq Composite added 79.82 points, or 0.68%, to 11,775.46, rallying thanks to high-flying stocks including Apple Inc.

China bouncing back

Helping to lift sentiment at the start of the week, the Chinese data arrived with a strong composite PMI number which raises prospects of a faster global recovery.

China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for the month of August came in at 51.0 as compared to 51.1 in July, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Services moved at a faster clip in August with the official Non-manufacturing PMI coming in at 55.2 as compared to 54.2 in July.

PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion which we have now seen in manufacturing activity and industrial output for the fifth straight month.

TikTok poses a risk 

On the geopolitical front, reports that Beijing will need to approve the sale of TikTok to a potential US buyer was weighing on risk appetite. 

Hopes of reaching a deal to sell the US operations of its TikTok video app in the coming days have been thrown into doubt after Beijing announced new rules governing technology exports.

The FT reported that ”China’s Ministry of Commerce revealed late on Friday that the government had expanded its list of technologies subject to export controls to include new rules related to artificial intelligence.”

The updated list of controlled exports, which had not been changed since 2008, added restrictions for ‘personalised information recommendation services based on data analysis’. Inclusion on the list means companies must obtain additional government approvals for the export of certain technologies.

ByteDance-owned TikTok is built on algorithms that analyse user behaviour to push personalised content.

People close to the TikTok sale negotiations said the Chinese government’s decision could derail ByteDance’s plans to reach a preliminary agreement, which was expected as early as this week. Any deal would now take longer to assess in light of the export control changes, the people said.

US data surprises to the upside

The Dallas Fed manufacturing index surprised on the upside in August lifting 11 points to +8 (mkt: 0.0).

Analysts at ANZ Bank explained that the results were mixed across the sub-components with production and capacity utilisation falling slightly and new orders ticking up.

Employment made further gains and the 6-month ahead outlook lifted 9.8 points to 20.4. This time tomorrow we’ll have a read on nationwide manufacturing activity with the ISM manufacturing index out overnight. Market expectations are for a lift of a little more than 2 points. But fair to say that ongoing virus risks and possible winding back of fiscal support to households, could see the pace of recovery slow over the latter half of the year.  

S&P 500 levels

 

  • EUR/JPY is trading 0.75% higher as JPY struggles across the board.
  • The bulls have been stopped in their tracks at 126.70.

EUR/JPY 4-hour chart

At the beginning of the week, EUR/JPY has pushed higher and the Japanese Yen underperformed against most of its major counterparts. The EUR/JPY cross has hit a brick wall at the previous wave high resistance. 

The price is still in a pretty decent uptrend and since the price hit a low of 114.42 in early May the pair has been making higher highs and higher lows. If the uptrend is to continue the aforementioned high of 126.75 needs to be broken. 

The indicators are looking pretty bullish. The MACD histogram is in the green and the signal lines still remain above the zero line. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 but the current wave is lower than the previous one. 

Tomorrow could be a pivotal day as EU PMI, German PMI’s and EU inflation data are all set to be released. On the downside, the blue upward sloping trendline could be a support zone along with the red horizontal line at 125.14.

EUR/JPY resistance zone

Additional levels

 

  • La plata cotiza un 2,85% al ​​alza el lunes tras dos cierres alcistas previos en el gráfico de 4 horas.
  • Existe un nivel de resistencia en $28,50 por onza que podría eliminarse.

Gráfico de 4 horas

La plata se ha movido al alza al comienzo de la semana mientras el dólar lucha una vez más. En términos de metales, la plata lidera la carga hoy, seguida de cerca por el paladio, que subió un 2%. Antes del resto de la semana, los datos de las NFP del viernes serán un evento importante que podría inspirar algo de volatilidad.

Mirando el gráfico de 4 horas, el precio parece dirigirse a probar la próxima resistencia en $28,50 por onza troy. Una ruptura de este nivel podría significar que el reciente máximo de $29,85 por onza podría ser el objetivo de los alcistas. Si esto falla, entonces $26,16 por onza ha sido una gran espina en el costado para los bajistas, ya que es una zona de soporte muy obstinada. El mercado intentó romper el nivel seis veces solo en este gráfico.

Los indicadores son positivos en este momento, ya que el histograma MACD y las líneas de señal están por encima de cero. El índice de fuerza relativa está cerca del área de sobrecompra positiva, pero todavía hay espacio para un movimiento más alto.

En general, la tendencia sigue siendo positiva. Si el nivel de $28,50 por onza mencionado anteriormente se rompe, el objetivo obvio es un impulso hacia el máximo en el gráfico.

Niveles técnicos 

                                                                                                                    

  • El S&P 500 sigue en camino de cerrar agosto por encima de 3.500.
  • Las acciones de Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD: NASDAQ) alcanzaron un nuevo récord.

El índice S&P 500 (SPX) abrió el primer día de la semana con pocos cambios, pero marcó un récord de 3.510. Al momento de escribir, el SPX se mantuvo plano en el día en 3,506. El índice tecnológico S&P 500 sensible al riesgo ha subido un 0,73% en el día, ya que los flujos de apetito de riesgo continúan dominando los mercados en ausencia de publicaciones de datos macroeconómicos significativos el lunes.

Principales cambios del S&P 500

A pesar de la falta de titulares relacionados con la empresa, las acciones de Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD: NASDAQ) alcanzaron un máximo histórico de 92,64 dólares el lunes y se vio por última vez ganando un 7,1% en el día a 91,73 dólares. Entre las otras acciones tecnológicas notables, Apple Inc (AAPL: NASDAQ), Juniper Networks Inc (JNPR: NYSE), Seagate Technology PLC (STX: NASDAQ) y NVIDIA Corp (NVDA: NASDAQ) subieron entre un 4,4% y un 2,8%.

Por otro lado, las acciones de HollyFrontier Corp (HFC: NYSE) cayeron un 6,5% como la mayor caída porcentual diaria. Las acciones de MGM Resorts International (MGM: NYSE) y Phillips 66 (PSX: NYSE) pierden alrededor del 5%.