20 12月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, December 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23312 2504.75 6352.50
+0.95% +0.54% +0.93%

U.S stocks gained earlier in yesterday’s trading session before the outcome of a key policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 193 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 index rose 20 points, or 0.8%. The NASDAQ climbed 48 points, or 0.7%. Investors are expecting the Fed to help assuage brewing anxieties that have underpinned a recent bout of market tumult as the central bank’s interest-rate setting committee. Meanwhile, U.S Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gave investors reason for optimism regarding U.S-China trade relations, when he said the U.S and China will meet in January to broker a trade-war truce, in an interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday. Previously, the Trump administration hadn’t given a specific timetable for face-to-face negotiations. With volume so light this time of year, investors should brace for more volatility. Existing home sales rose 1.9%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.32 million from October to November, according to the National Association of Realtors.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target     0.00%

dec

BOJ Rate Decision     -0.10%

nov

Australia Employment Change 00:30 20.0k 32.8k

nov

Australia Unemployment Rate 00:30 5.0% 5.0%

dec

Bank of England Bank Rate 12:00 0.75% 0.75%

dec

BOE Asset Purchase Target 12:00 435b 435b

dec

U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 13:30 15.5 12.9

dec

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 219k 206k

nov

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) 23:30 0.8% 1.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.49% to hit a new 52-week low. The best performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 0.38% or 0.21 points to trade at 55.86 at the close. Meanwhile, The Travelers Companies Inc. fell 0.12% or 0.14 points to end at 119.16 and International Business Machines was down 0.19% or 0.22 points to 116.43 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 4.55% or 2.17 points to trade at 45.57 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 3.12% or 5.18 points to end at 160.89 and Nike Inc. was down 3.06% or 2.18 points to 68.97.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 2.17%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Marin Software Inc. which rose 78.76% to 6.650, China Automotive Systems Inc. which was up 42.06% to settle at 3.040 and Evine Live Inc. which gained 41.85% to close at 0.558. The worst performers were Surface Oncology Inc. which was down 47.50% to 3.89 in late trade, Biocept Inc. which lost 29.82% to settle at 0.800 and Toughbuilt Industries Inc. which was down 24.00% to 1.14 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose about 3 percent yesterday, recovering somewhat from a sharp sell-off during the previous session, after U.S data showed strong demand for refined products. Sentiment remains negative, however, as investors grapple with weakening demand and worries about oversupply. U.S light crude contract rose $1.44 a barrel to $48.04. The markets slumped on Tuesday, extending a recent run of poor performance. Global benchmark Brent tumbled 5.6 percent on Tuesday, just above a 14-month low reached during the session, while WTI lost 7.3 percent, falling to its lowest level since August 2017. Crude inventories fell by 497,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 14, smaller than the decrease of 2.4 million barrels analysts had expected. The decline was the third consecutive decrease, the U.S Energy Information Administration said. The OPEC and other oil producers including Russia agreed this month to curb output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in an attempt to drain tanks and boost prices.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose to a one-week high yesterday, helped by a weaker U.S dollar and a fall in global stock markets, but moves were limited as investors sought clarity on the path of U.S interest rates as concerns about a slowing global economy deepened. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,247.06 per ounce, having earlier touched its highest since Dec. 10 at $1,250.27, just short of a five-month peak of $1,250.55 hit last week. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,251.30 per ounce. There has been a slight increase in the minority view that the Fed might not raise rates, given the recent weakness in the equity markets. It would be quite a shock if they didn’t increase rates in this week’s meeting. Most of the attention will be on how many more interest rates rises there may be next year. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year at its two-day policy meeting ending today. But weak stock markets and slowing global growth may prompt the central bank to signal a slowdown in rate increases. We have seen quite a broad-based sell-off across many other markets, from equities to other commodity markets, and an increase in risk aversion. In that climate, gold is edging gradually higher towards a multi-months peak. World stock markets tumbled as fears about a slowing global economy gripped investors, while the dollar index slipped 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Gold tends to gain when interest rate hike expectations ease because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, in which it is priced. In euro terms, gold reached its highest since June at 1,100.57 euro an ounce. Gold, considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has risen more than 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. It is also set to post its biggest quarterly gains since March 2017. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent to $14.63.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures edged higher yesterday as the oilseed market awaited signs of further demand from China as part of a trade truce with Washington. Wheat eased after gaining ground on Monday while corn ticked upwards in cautious trading.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 23571 24073 23168 23312 -282
S & P 500 SPM18 2531.75 2590.25 2489.5 2504.75 -32.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6464 6601.5 6301 6352.5 -127.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25847 25935 25798 25919 103
Nikkei 225 NKH18 20985 21100 20805 20935 -170
FTSE 100 FTH18 6639 6723.5 6598 6613.5 -17
Gold GCJ18 1253.6 1261.9 1245.1 1246.4 -6.7
Silver SIK18 1470 1489 1460.5 1465 -4
Copper HGK18 265.45 271.9 265.4 267.5 2.3
Crude Oil CLK18 46.27 48.32 46.26 47.38 1.17
Wheat WK18 531.75 532 521.25 522.5 -9.75
Soybeans SK18 906.5 909.5 898.75 899.5 -7.75
Corn CK18 384.75 384.75 381.5 381.5 -3.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 22057 22613 22962 23518 23867 24423 24772
SPM18 2365.33 2427.42 2466.08 2528.17 2566.83 2628.92 2667.58
NDM18 5934.67 6117.83 6235.17 6418.33 6535.67 6718.83 6836.17
HSH18 25696 25747 25833 25884 25970 26021 26107
NKH18 20498 20652 20793 20947 21088 21242 21383
FTH18 6441.00 6519.50 6566.50 6645.00 6692.00 6770.50 6817.50
GCJ18 1223.57 1234.33 1240.37 1251.13 1257.17 1267.93 1273.97
SIK18 1425.50 1443.00 1454.00 1471.50 1482.50 1500.00 1511.00
HGK18 258.13 261.77 264.63 268.27 271.13 274.77 277.63
CLK18 44.26 45.26 46.32 47.32 48.38 49.38 50.44
WK18 507.75 514.50 518.50 525.25 529.25 536.00 540.00
SK18 884.92 891.83 895.67 902.58 906.42 913.33 917.17
CK18 377.17 379.33 380.42 382.58 383.67 385.83 386.92

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-20

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周三(12月19日)收跌,亚市盘中美元指数位于96.8附近做区间震荡,美市盘中美国公布 11月成屋销售年化总数(万户)公布值为532万户,高于前值522万户和市场预测的520万户,美元指数并没有因此受到提振,因中东传来消息,特朗普下令从叙利亚全面撤军。消息传来之后美元受到打压下跌,盘中最低来到96.56,紧接着美联储公布利率决定宣布加息25个基点,将联邦基金利率目标区间由原本的2.00-2.25%上调至2.25-2.50%,和市场预测相同,美元指数闻讯上涨盘中最高来到97.10,美元指数最终收在97.03。

现货黄金周三收跌,亚市早盘开于1249.20美元/金衡盎司后,金价位于1249.00美元/金衡盎司左右区间震荡,美市开盘受到美元指数下跌影响,资金纷纷流入黄金,盘中最高来到1257.75美元/金衡盎司,美市盘中美联储宣布加息,美元指数受到提振,黄金受到打压下跌,盘中最低来到1241.50美元/金衡盎司,黄金最终收在1242.85美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周三收涨1.15美元,或2.49%,报47.37美元/桶。美国能源信息署(EIA)周三公布报告显示,截至12月14日当周,美国原油库存减少49.7万桶,低于前值减少的120.8万桶,虽然美国原油库存报告整体利空,但美联储暗示明年加息次数将减少,从而帮助油价在18日大跌之后收复部分失地。

美国股市周三大幅下挫,此前尽管美联储预计明年可能放慢升息步伐,但投资者原本预期联储货币政策会更偏鸽派,鲍威尔在讲话表示,他认为美联储不会改变让资产负债表继续自动缩减的政策,这使投资者担心金融环境收紧将令金融市场进一步承压。道琼工业指数收挫351.98点,或1.49%,报23323.66点;标普500指数收跌39.2点,或1.54%,报2506.96点;那斯达克指数收低147.08点,或2.17%,报6636.83点。

个股方面,Facebook(FB)股价跌7.25%,为7月来最大百分比跌幅。纽约时报报导,该公司允许一些企业获得用户信息的程度超过披露情况,公司称,只有在使用者允许的情况下,其他企业才可以获得用户信息。联邦快递(FDX)股价重挫12.33%,创10年来最大单日跌幅,之前该公司调降2019年业绩预估。美光(MU)股价也大跌7.92%,之前该公司的温和财测加剧了对行业荣景消散的担忧。

日本股市周三下跌,因市场静待美国联邦公开市场委员会会议结果,加上19日正式挂牌上市的电信大厂软银没蜜月行情,首日表现惨,冲击投资人信心,也拖累日经225指数19日持续走跌、失守21000点整数关卡,终场跌0.60%或127.53点,收20987.92点。

个股方面,软银集团下挫0.91%,SBG旗下电信大厂软银19日正式挂牌,惟挂牌首日没出现蜜月行情。丰田汽车跌0.19%,丰田冲刺电动化车款销售,力拼2020年销售量增4成、占整体新车销售量比重约1/4。工具机厂DMG森精机大涨2.24%,美中贸易摩擦、导致中国工具机需求失速,森精机传出将首度把在中国生产的工具机出口至印度贩卖。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收跌,震荡交投于112.400一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格进一步考验112.100一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧指向113关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至1.14379一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能扩张,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑位看向1.13500一线。上行方面,价格阻力位进一步考验1.14200一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收跌,一度冲高至1.26774一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.25000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜冲高回落,一度触及日高至1257一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标拐头向下。后市来看,金价初步阻力位指向1250一线。下行方面,金价支撑位考验1236一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,低位交投于47一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向上脱离超卖区。后市来看,油价依旧考验46关口支撑力度。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向50.50一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续回落,盘中一度反弹至24064一线后跳水走低。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标进入超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24000关口。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23000一线。

 

NK_

 

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收跌,最低探至20525一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向下逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21200一线,下行支撑位看向20400一线。