18 12月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Tuesday, December 18, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
23674 2555.25 6487.75
-1.02% -1.16% -1.15%

Stocks sank yesterday as investors grew worried that the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates could be too much for the economy and stock market to handle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 250 points on the week’s first day of trading, with losses in UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson offsetting gains in Boeing and Apple. The S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent amid a 2.5 percent loss in utilities and a 1.7 percent loss in real estate investments. The Dow is now more than 11 percent off its 52-week high; the S&P 500 is 12 percent off its record high notched back in September. The tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 1 as Amazon fell 3.1 percent and Microsoft dropped 1.6 percent. All three major U.S indexes closed in correction territory for the first time since March 2016 in the prior trading session. Investors are also on edge ahead of the December meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking arm. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hike its benchmark overnight lending rate for a fourth and final time of 2018 this week.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

dec

New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook 00:00   7.6

dec

RBA Dec. Meeting Minutes 00:30    

dec

Switzerland SECO Dec. 2018 Economic Forecasts 06:45    

dec

German IFO Business Climate 09:00 101.7 102

dec

German IFO Expectations 09:00 98.3 98.7

dec

German IFO Current Assessment 09:00 104.9 105.4

nov

U.S Housing Starts (MoM) 13:30 0.2% 1.5%

nov

U.S Building Permits (MoM) 13:30 -0.4% -0.6%

nov

Japan Trade Balance 23:50 -¥630.0b -¥449.3b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.11% to hit a new 6-months low. The best performers of the session were The Travelers Companies Inc., which fell 0.51% or 0.62 points to trade at 119.93 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co fell 0.82% or 2.62 points to end at 316.13 and Apple Inc. was down 0.93% or 1.54 points to 163.94 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were American Express Company, which fell 4.28% or 4.52 points to trade at 101.18 at the close. Procter & Gamble Company declined 4.00% or 3.87 points to end at 92.77 and Nike Inc. was down 3.63% or 2.63 points to 69.90.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 2.27%. The top performers were Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 51.38% to 0.121, Riot Blockchain Inc. which was up 32.59% to settle at 1.7900 and Calyxt Inc. which gained 23.79% to close at 12.23. The worst performers were Sophiris Bio Inc. which was down 40.29% to 1.230 in late trade, Cancer Genetics Inc. which lost 40.04% to settle at 0.333 and Dova Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 39.16% to 9.01 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday on signs of oversupply in the United States and as investor sentiment remained under pressure from concern over the prospects for global economic growth and fuel demand. U.S light crude fell 88 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $50.32, after briefly dipping below $50 for the first time in two weeks. The contract hit a session high at $51.87 yesterday. U.S crude futures fell after inventories at the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma rose by more than 1 million barrels between Dec. 11 and Dec. 14, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. Traders and market participants closely watch supplies at the hub because it is the delivery point for the futures contract and underpins nearly all other regional crude grades. Some investors doubt planned supply cuts by OPEC and other producers such as Russia will be enough to rebalance markets. OPEC and its allies have agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January, in a move to be reviewed at a meeting in April.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose yesterday as a slide in the dollar made bullion more attractive for holders of other currencies, while some investors took cover as stocks globally slipped into the red ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. Palladium climbed to an all-time high of $1,269.50 on a prolonged deficit in the market and increased speculative interest, with prices trading at a premium to bullion. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,244.91 per ounce. The metal touched its lowest since Dec. 4 at $1,232.39 an ounce on Friday. U.S gold futures were 0.5 percent higher at $1,247.90 per ounce. The dollar slipped ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting ending on Wednesday. Investor focus will be on the central bank’s policy outlook for 2019 and future interest rate hikes. One of the drivers that is pushing gold higher right now is the flight to safety (due to lower equities), along with the dollar being sold-off a bit. Some traders are also positioning themselves so that if the Fed does not raise rates, gold might spike. Weak stock markets and slowing global growth have raised speculation that the Fed will need to pause its tightening cycle or risk harming the U.S economy. Stocks fell on concerns over global growth that sent world equity markets to 17-month lows last week. Markets were also concerned about a possible U.S. government shutdown. Investor sentiment toward gold showed signs of optimism. Speculators switched to a net long position in gold of 10,252 contracts, adding 11,791 contracts in the week to Dec. 11, data showed on Friday. This was the first time gold speculators have held a net long position since July, and the strongest since June. With increased volatility and geopolitical risk, macro asset allocation is becoming more gold-positive again, while we believe much of the dollar’s upward move is now behind us with rate hike expectations dropping. Silver was up 0.7 percent at $14.66 per ounce, while platinum rose 1.2 percent at $796.80 per ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures rebounded more than 1 percent in yesterday’s trading session after a sharp fall in the previous session, as a jump in prices in top exporter Russia improved U.S wheat’s competitiveness on world markets.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, December 17, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24016 24238 23474 23674 -449
S & P 500 SPM18 2594.75 2616.75 2533.5 2555.25 -49.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6598 6655.75 6422.75 6487.75 -133.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26151 26226 26006 26076 41
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21225 21490 21185 21435 120
FTSE 100 FTH18 6782.5 6787.5 6626 6662.5 -72.5
Gold GCJ18 1241.1 1251.9 1239.8 1249.5 8.7
Silver SIK18 1463 1463.5 1462.5 1463 0
Copper HGK18 275.3 275.9 272 274.3 -1.5
Crude Oil CLK18 51.25 51.84 48.99 49.13 -2.17
Wheat WK18 531 537.25 529.75 535.25 5.5
Soybeans SK18 903.25 909 901.75 903.75 3.75
Corn CK18 383.75 385.5 383 383.5 -0.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 22589 23031 23353 23795 24117 24559 24881
SPM18 2437.00 2485.25 2520.25 2568.50 2603.50 2651.75 2686.75
NDM18 6155.42 6289.08 6388.42 6522.08 6621.42 6755.08 6854.42
HSH18 25759 25883 25979 26103 26199 26323 26419
NKH18 20945 21065 21250 21370 21555 21675 21860
FTH18 6435.00 6530.50 6596.50 6692.00 6758.00 6853.50 6919.50
GCJ18 1230.13 1234.97 1242.23 1247.07 1254.33 1259.17 1266.43
SIK18 1461.50 1462.00 1462.50 1463.00 1463.50 1464.00 1464.50
HGK18 268.33 270.17 272.23 274.07 276.13 277.97 280.03
CLK18 45.28 47.14 48.13 49.99 50.98 52.84 53.83
WK18 523.42 526.58 530.92 534.08 538.42 541.58 545.92
SK18 893.42 897.58 900.67 904.83 907.92 912.08 915.17
CK18 380.00 381.50 382.50 384.00 385.00 386.50 387.50

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-12-18

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周一(12月17日)收跌,日内公布的数据较弱。数据显示,美国12月纽约联储制造业指数为10.9,远低于前值23.3和预期值20.2。美国12月NAHB房产市场指数为56,低于前值60和预期值61,因缺乏可建土地及建筑材料成本增加,使得房屋供给受到抑制,同时贷款成本也提高,减少了潜在的买家。数据公布后,并未对美元指数带来提振,反而持续下跌,录得日内低点97.05后,但在收盘前上涨,最终报收97.13。

现货黄金周一亚市早盘开于1238.70美元/金衡盎司后,金价短暂下挫,录得日内低点1235.50美元/金衡盎司后转涨,金价震荡上行。欧市金价延续涨势,不断走高。美市多头加大上攻力度,盘中出现直线拉升,录得日内高点1247.80美元/金衡盎司后回落,终收于1245.70美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周一收跌2.23美元,或4.34%,报49.12美元/桶。因市场担心经济增长速度加剧放缓,恐拖累原油的需求面表现,且市场对产油国能否严格执行减产还存在疑虑,使得油价承压下跌,不过美元指数大跌为油价带来了一定支撑。

美国股市周一下跌,由于市场越来越担心联准会(Fed)升息计划可能对经济和股市造成过大影响,推动S&P500指数创下年内新低。道琼工业指数收低507.53点,或2.11%,报23592.98点;标普500指数收跌54.01点,或2.08%,报2545.94点;纳斯达克指数收跌156.93点,或2.27%,报6753.73点。

个股方面,亚马逊(AMZN)下跌4.46%;Netflix(NFLX)下跌 1.51%;脸书(FB)股价下跌2.69%;Alphabet(GOOGL)下跌2.48%;苹果(AAPL)下跌 0.93%;美国银行(BAC)下跌0.04%;高盛(GS)下跌 2.72%;富国银行(WFC)上扬0.13%;摩根大通(JPM)下跌 1.35%。

日本股市周一上涨,因日经225指数14日暴跌逾400点,吸引低接买盘涌入,也提振日经指数17日反弹走扬,终场涨0.62%或132.05点,收21,506.88点。

个股方面,日本印刷电路板大厂CMK狂崩17.63%亮灯跌停,CMK 14日坦承,在未获得顾客端同意的情况下,为了赶交期,擅自变更制造工程、生产据点,甚或委由外部企业生产顾客所下的订单。CMK表示,上述不正当行为恐自十几年前就已开始。Sony跌0.27%、Panasonic跌0.41%。日本电视厂商明年OLED电视销售量有望首度突破100万台,Sony、Panasonic传出2019年对LGD所下的OLED面板订单较2018年飙增6成。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续收跌,下破113关口。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱显现,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格进一步考验112.400一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格初步阻力位指向113.100一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜反弹收涨,持稳1.13000一线上方。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能微增,RSI指标拐头向上。后市看来,价格支撑位依旧看向1.13000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位考验1.14000一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,小幅探高至1.26454一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑位指向1.24700一线。上行方面,价格阻力位依旧考验1.28000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜大幅收涨,最高探至1247一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱温和,RSI指标拐头向上。后市来看,金价阻力位进一步指向1250一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑位考验1234一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜破位下跌,失守50关口。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标向下延伸。后市来看,油价支撑位进一步考验46一线。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向51.40一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续回落,刷新近期新低至23463一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位考验24500一线。下行方面,价格支撑位下看23400一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收跌,一度反弹至21490一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下延伸。后市来看,价格阻力位考验21500一线,下行支撑位看向20900一线。