市场报告                     2018-10-24

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周二(10月23日)转跌,因受美国股市下跌影响,以及投资者寻找其他货币以规避风险,盘中最低触及95.80。加上美国日内公布的10月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数为15,低于前值29和预期24,使得美元指数持续承压,最终收于95.95。

现货黄金周二收涨,亚市早盘开于1221.65美元/金衡盎司后金价小幅下挫,录得日内低点1221.40美元/金衡盎司后转涨,金价震荡上行。欧市金价出现大力拉升,直线飙升,录得日内高点1239.40美元/金衡盎司后转盘整。美市金价高位回落,震荡下行,缩减日内涨幅,终收于1230.20美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周二收跌3.45美元,或4.96%,报66.07美元/桶。虽然沙特记者被害事件引发投资者对中东局势的担忧,但沙特承诺进一步增产以及股市再跌令风险资产承压,油价也惨遭拖累。

美国股市周二下跌,因对企业获利前景的担忧加重了市场近期的卖压,不过投资者在尾盘趁低吸纳,使得三大股指收盘脱离日低。道琼工业指数收跌125.98点,或0.50%,至25,191.43点;标普500指数收跌15.19点,或0.55%,至2,740.69点;纳斯达克指数下滑31.09点,或0.42%,至7,437.54点。

个股方面,重型设备制造商卡特彼勒CAT.N大跌7.56%,该公司在前两个季度上调2018年获利预期,但本季度维持预估不变。3M MMM.N下滑4.44%,因面临外汇有关的挑战,该公司下调全年盈利预估。麦当劳MCD.N因海外市场需求强劲,该公司公布的季度同店销售超过预期,使得股价攀升6.31%。威瑞森通讯VZ.N大涨4.19%,该公司公布的获利和新电话订户净增长超过分析师预期。

日本股市周二收跌,因企业财报欠佳,加上市场忧心中国景气减速,引发上证等亚股下挫,使得日经指数开盘后随即跳空重挫,且跌势一路扩大,最终收盘大跌2.67%或604.04点,收22,010.78点。

个股方面,日本骊住株式会社下跌15.76%,该公司将截至2019年3月的全年净获利预期从500亿日元下调至15亿日元。川崎重工业跌1.32%,该公司下调了当前财年业绩预期。日本建材大厂Lixil暴跌15.76%,因Lixil子公司出售给陆企一案遭美国阻挡,使得Lixil大砍年度获利目标。野村HD重挫2.45%,为了加快日中民间等级经济合作,野村传携手中投(CIC)设立投资基金,规模将达上千亿日元。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜回落收跌,一度下破112.000关口后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验112.000关口,跌破则进一步下看111.700一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标112.800一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜震荡收涨,低位交投于1.14700一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验1.14200一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.15200一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,一度反弹至1.30000一线上方后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验1.29000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标看向1.30000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜大幅收涨,最高探至1239一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,金价阻力目标指向1240一线。下行方面,金价关键支撑考验1210一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜大幅收跌,最低探至65.73一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下逼近超卖区。后市来看,油价支撑目标考验前低64.70一线。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向67.40一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收跌,一度探低至24749一线后反弹收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标考验25800一线。下行方面,价格支撑下看25000关口。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜回落收跌,最低触及21635一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标向下。后市来看,价格初步支撑依旧考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22440一线。

 

23 10月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Tuesday, October 23, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25289 2756.00 7154.25
-0.35% -0.31% +0.40%

U.S stocks fell yesterday, with the S&P 500 poised for its fourth day of losses, as a touch of earnings-season anxiety dogged investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 130 points, or 0.5%, while S&P 500 shed 11 points, or 0.4%. The tech heavy NASDAQ however, rose 20 points, or 0.3%. Stocks are trying to find direction after bulls and bears fought each other to a stalemate last week, leaving the benchmark S&P 500 to eke out a weekly rise of less than 0.1%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ suffered a third straight weekly decline as once-popular technology shares continued to take a beating, while the Dow broke a three-week losing streak. Increased volatility has left investors nervous in what’s been a rough October. The S&P 500 is down more than 5% in the month-to-date, while the Dow is off nearly 4% and the NASDAQ has shed 7%. That is left the S&P 500 roughly 6% off its record high set in late September. Investors will be wading through a flood of earnings this week.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

RBA’s Bullock speaks on panel in Sydney 03:00    

sep

Japan Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) 05:30   -0.2%

sep

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 06:00   2.8%

sep

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 06:00 3.0% 3.1%

oct

U.K CBI Business Optimism 10:00 -4 -3

oct

U.S Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 14:00 24 29

oct

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 14:00 -3.2 -2.9

 

BOE’s Carney Speaks at a Conference 15:20    

OCT

Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing 23:30   52.5
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.50%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Intel Corporation, which rose 2.30% or 1.01 points to trade at 45.01 at the close. Meanwhile, Nike Inc. added 0.93% or 0.69 points to end at 74.90 and Cisco Systems Inc. was up 0.93% or 0.42 points to 45.76 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were DowDuPont Inc., which fell 2.47% or 1.42 points to trade at 56.07 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declined 2.36% or 5.36 points to end at 221.60 and American Express Company was down 2.08% or 2.22 points to 104.51.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 0.26%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Jetpay Corp which rose 133.96% to 4.960, Euroseas Ltd which was up 81.82% to settle at 2.400 and Top Ships Inc. which gained 55.12% to close at 1.9700. The worst performers were Adaptimmune Therapeutics Plc which was down 29.83% to 7.55 in late trade, Aduro Biotech Inc. which lost 29.46% to settle at 4.43 and LM Funding America Inc. which was down 26.57% to 2.93 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil futures were little changed yesterday after paring earlier losses despite Saudi Arabia’s pledge to raise crude production to a record high, two weeks before U.S sanctions potentially choke off Iranian supplies. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told Russia’s TASS news agency that his country had no intention of unleashing a 1973-style oil embargo on Western consumers, but rather was focused on raising output to compensate for supply losses elsewhere, such as Iran. Falih said Saudi Arabia would soon raise output to 11 million barrels per day (bpd) from the current 10.7 million. He added that Riyadh had capacity to increase production to 12 million bpd. Oil prices are finely balanced in today’s trading session despite the Saudi pledge to boost production. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November delivery also rose 5 cents to settle at $69.17 on its last day as the U.S front-month. In intraday trade, WTI fell as low as $68.27, its lowest since Sept. 14. U.S sanctions on Iran’s oil sector start on Nov. 4

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices slipped yesterday, pressured by a rallying dollar and the metal’s failure to break above a key technical level. Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,222.13 per ounce, having hit a 2-1/2-month peak last week at $1,233.26 per ounce. Prices were on track to register their biggest daily percentage decline since Oct. 12. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3 percent to $1,224.80. The strength of the dollar and the gold market’s inability to trade above the 100 day moving average at $1,224 yesterday has given people the impression that gold has no chance of rallying. The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies, denting demand for gold, which is priced in the U.S currency, while Wall Street failed to capitalize on gains in European and Asian stock markets. Despite the market gathering a fair amount of technical momentum last week, breaking free of stock market fluctuations, some analysts said the outlook was not straightforward. The fundamental outlook for gold is still looking a little bleak despite the recent recovery. Gold speculators cut their net short position in COMEX gold contracts by 65,637 contracts to 37,372 contracts, the smallest since late July, in the week to Oct. 16, data showed. In other precious metals, palladium surged 3.7 percent to $1,120 per ounce, having hit its highest in more than nine months at $1,123.20. The auto catalyst metal has seen fresh buying on the back of a recovery in Chinese equity markets. Promises of tax cuts and coordinated official statements of support for stock markets in the world’s second-largest economy saw Chinese shares stage their biggest one-day surge in three years. Meanwhile, silver was 0.4 percent lower at $14.54, while platinum slid 0.8%. Copper prices hit one-week highs yesterday due to expectations of stronger demand after authorities in top consumer China said they would take measures aimed at bolstering growth and liquidity.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Corn futures inched higher yesterday, snapping a four-session slide, as forecasts for rains to re-emerge in the Midwest next week raised concerns about harvest delays and crop quality. Soybeans ended narrowly higher while wheat futures sagged in subdued trade, pressured by a firm dollar and weak export demand for U.S supplies.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, October 22, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25365 25562 25218 25289 -137
S & P 500 SPM18 2757.75 2781.75 2749.5 2756 -11.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7085 7210 7056.75 7154.25 47
Hang Seng HSH18 25488 26217 25483 26125 671
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22390 22660 22260 22660 140
FTSE 100 FTH18 7035 7086.5 7004.5 7015.5 9.5
Gold GCJ18 1229.5 1231.2 1222.6 1224.6 -3.8
Silver SIK18 1463.5 1470.5 1452.5 1457 -7
Copper HGK18 277.6 283.35 277.35 278.05 0.2
Crude Oil CLK18 69.29 69.8 68.43 69.49 0.2
Wheat WK18 511.75 513.5 507 507.75 -6
Soybeans SK18 855.5 862.5 855.5 858.25 1.5
Corn CK18 365.75 370.25 365.5 369.25 2.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24807 25012 25151 25356 25495 25700 25839
SPM18 2710.83 2730.17 2743.08 2762.42 2775.33 2794.67 2807.58
NDM18 6917.42 6987.08 7070.67 7140.33 7223.92 7293.58 7377.17
HSH18 24932 25208 25666 25942 26400 26676 27134
NKH18 21993 22127 22393 22527 22793 22927 23193
FTH18 6902.50 6953.50 6984.50 7035.50 7066.50 7117.50 7148.50
GCJ18 1212.47 1217.53 1221.07 1226.13 1229.67 1234.73 1238.27
SIK18 1431.50 1442.00 1449.50 1460.00 1467.50 1478.00 1485.50
HGK18 269.82 273.58 275.82 279.58 281.82 285.58 287.82
CLK18 67.31 67.87 68.68 69.24 70.05 70.61 71.42
WK18 498.83 502.92 505.33 509.42 511.83 515.92 518.33
SK18 848.00 851.75 855.00 858.75 862.00 865.75 869.00
CK18 361.67 363.58 366.42 368.33 371.17 373.08 375.92

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

23 10月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 23, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar gained following steep losses in British pound and the Euro yesterday

·      Brexit negotiations with the European Union over Northern Ireland remain in flux

·      The shared currency continued its slide on political uncertainty over Italy’s budget

·      Data showed Canadian wholesale trade decreased by 0.1 percent in August from July

The U.S Dollar rallied from an earlier low as sterling fell after reports that Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will back an amendment that would stop the Irish border backstop plan. The proposed amendment from a group of pro-Brexit MPs from within Theresa May’s ruling Conservative party would effectively make the European Union’s Irish border backstop proposal illegal. The U.S dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, rose 0.33% to 95.76. Meanwhile GBP/USD fell 0.80% to a two-week low of 1.2975. The dollar rose against the yen, with USD/JPY gaining 0.21% to 112.78. The euro was also lower, after Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio said that if the commission reject Italy’s letter over their budget deficit there would still be weeks to discuss the budget with them. Investors remain wary over the disagreement between Italy’s government and the EU over Rome’s 2019 draft budget, which the European Commission has rejected as a breach of EU laws. Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Italy’s credit rating on Friday, but maintained a stable rating. The Japanese yen edged lower yesterday. Japanese policymakers are keeping a close eye on the strained relations between China and the U.S., as the trade war between the two economic giants shows no signs of abating. The U.S Treasury Department released its semi-annual report on foreign exchange rates, and there was some relief in the markets as the report did not name China as a currency manipulator. Still, the report said that the U.S was “deeply disappointed’ with that China refuses to disclose the extent of its foreign currency intervention. The British pound fell on news that Brexit negotiations with the European Union over Northern Ireland remain in flux and as the euro continued its slide on political uncertainty over Italy’s budget. Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday said that 95 percent of Britain’s Brexit deal has been agreed to but repeated her opposition to an EU proposal for the Irish border. The Canadian dollar edged lower yesterday. Canadian wholesale trade decreased by 0.1 percent in August from July as weaker sales in the building material and supplies.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
03:00 RBA’s Bullock speaks on panel in Sydney Low      
04:30 RBA’s Debelle speaks on panel in Sydney Low      
05:30 Japan Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (SEP) Low     -0.2%
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (SEP) Low     2.8%
06:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Low   3.0% 3.1%
10:00 U.K CBI Trends Selling Prices (OCT) Low   15 13
10:00 U.K CBI Business Optimism (OCT) Low   -4 -3
10:30 BOE Chief Economist Haldane Speaks in Paris Low      
13:30 U.S Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Early Childhood Development Event Low      
14:00 U.S Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (OCT) Low   24 29
14:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (OCT) Medium   -3.2 -2.9
15:20 BOE’s Carney Speaks at a Conference High      
23:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (OCT) Medium     52.5

 

Euro

The single currency failed to hold early-session gains as investors focused on the likelihood of further political uncertainty in Europe over Italy’s spending plans, despite a large drop in Italian government borrowing costs. Rating agency Moody’s downgraded Italy’s credit rating on Friday but unexpectedly kept the outlook at stable. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1454 and a high of 1.1548 before closing the day around 1.1463 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen edged lower yesterday. Japanese All Industries Activity improved 0.5%, up from 0.0% month earlier. The reading was a shade better than the estimate of 0.4%. Today, Japan releases Core CPI, the preferred indicator of the BOJ. Japanese policymakers are keeping a close eye on the strained relations between China and the U.S. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.33 and a high of 112.86 before closing the day around 112.80 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound posted strong losses yesterday. On the release front, there were no British or U.S events. Today, the U.K releases CBI Industrial Order Expectations and the U.S publishes the Richmond Manufacturing Index. Brexit negotiations appear deadlocked, although Prime Minister May sounded surprisingly upbeat about the status of the talks. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2954 and a high of 1.3088 before closing the day at 1.2964 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart in yesterday’s session as the greenback broadly rose and domestic data showed a surprise dip in wholesale trade, while a Bank of Canada interest rate decision was due later in the week. Canadian wholesale trade decreased by 0.1 per cent in August from July. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3077 and a high of 1.3124 before closing the day at 1.3097 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar weakened after the government appeared on course to lose its one-seat majority in parliament and as the U.S criticized China’s response to efforts at de-escalating the so called trade war between the world’s two largest economies, but one trader says to buy the currency. Australia’s Liberal Party lost its majority in the House of Representatives Saturday. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7074 and a high of 0.7123 before closing the day at 0.7083 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.24%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.53%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.27%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.75%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 22, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1513 1.15488 1.14544 1.14632 -0.0058
USD/JPY 112.441 112.867 112.332 112.804 0.3000
GBP/USD 1.30715 1.30882 1.29544 1.29641 -0.0104
USD/CHF 0.99611 0.99783 0.9938 0.99589 0.0004
USD/CAD 1.31023 1.31242 1.3077 1.30978 -0.0007
EUR/JPY 129.471 130.179 129.18 129.317 -0.3140
GBP/JPY 146.992 147.556 146.017 146.256 -0.7840
CHF/JPY 112.85 113.395 112.663 113.235 0.2550
AUD/JPY 80.041 80.282 79.612 79.866 -0.2170
EUR/GBP 0.88058 0.88552 0.88043 0.88393 0.0025
EUR/CHF 1.14696 1.14989 1.14148 1.14167 -0.0053
GBP/CHF 1.30217 1.30326 1.29078 1.29131 -0.0098

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1334 1.1394 1.1429 1.1489 1.1523 1.1583 1.1618
USD/JPY 111.93 112.13 112.47 112.67 113.00 113.20 113.54
GBP/USD 1.2782 1.2868 1.2916 1.3002 1.3050 1.3136 1.3184
USD/CHF 0.9898 0.9918 0.9939 0.9958 0.9979 0.9999 1.0019
USD/CAD 1.3028 1.3052 1.3075 1.3100 1.3122 1.3147 1.3170
EUR/JPY 127.94 128.56 128.94 129.56 129.94 130.56 130.94
GBP/JPY 144.12 145.07 145.66 146.61 147.20 148.15 148.74
CHF/JPY 112.07 112.37 112.80 113.10 113.53 113.83 114.26
AUD/JPY 78.89 79.25 79.56 79.92 80.23 80.59 80.90
EUR/GBP 0.8760 0.8782 0.8811 0.8833 0.8862 0.8884 0.8912
EUR/CHF 1.1304 1.1359 1.1388 1.1443 1.1472 1.1528 1.1556
GBP/CHF 1.2745 1.2826 1.2870 1.2951 1.2995 1.3076 1.3119

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-10-23

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周一(10月22日)上扬,再度站上96.00关口。在美元指数持续攀升之际,欧元/美元跌破了1.15000关口,因欧盟委员会发言人称,已收到意大利就预算草案问题对欧盟做出的响应,委员会周二将决定评估意大利预算案的后续步骤。此外,日内英镑/美元的跌势尤为显著,因北爱尔兰民主统一党据悉表示将在周三支持保守党硬脱欧派的一份修正提议,使得英镑/美元承压大跌逾百点。日内无重大数据公布,最终美元指数收于96.04。

现货黄金周一小幅收跌,亚市早盘开于1227.00美元/金衡盎司后金价上涨,小幅攀升,录得日内高点1229.10美元/金衡盎司后转盘整,金价窄幅波动。欧市金价转跌,不断小幅下挫。美市延续跌势,录得日内低点1219.80美元/金衡盎司后反弹,金价震荡上行后转盘整,终收于1221.65美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周一收涨0.22美元,或0.32%,报69.52美元/桶。虽然沙特承诺将继续增产,但失踪记者事件的发生恐引发变量,同时美国即将实施第二轮伊朗制裁,这令供应忧虑情绪依然严重,不过美元重返96.00关口上方令油价上涨空间受限。

美国股市周一标普500和道琼工业指数在震荡交投中收跌,因能源和金融股走低,且在本周发布一批企业业绩前市场表现出谨慎情绪。道琼工业指数收跌126.93点,或0.50%,至25,317.41点;标普500指数收跌11.9点,或0.43%,至2,755.88点;纳斯达克指数升19.60点,或0.26%,至7,468.63点。

个股方面,标普500能源指数.SPNY下跌,哈里伯顿警告说,第四季获利将低于预期,因北美页岩油市场表现疲弱。哈里伯顿HAL.N急跌3.04%,其竞争对手油田服务供货商斯伦贝谢SLB.N回落2.84%。大型银行股普遍下跌,其中美国银行BAC收跌3.32%、花旗集团C收跌3.30%、JP摩根大通JPM收跌1.44%、高盛GS收跌2.36%。

日本股市日经指数周一收高,因美股上周五跌多涨少,拖累日经225指数以低盘开出后,指数跌幅一度扩大至约260点,不过之后因上证等陆股飙涨,加上日元趋贬,激励日经指数翻红,最终收涨82.74点,或0.37%,至22,614.82点。

个股方面,日本油压机器厂商KYB暴跌8.44%,因KYB证实数据造假的制震器有外销至台湾,将和台湾协商今后的因应对策,而在日本国内采用数据造假制震器的建筑数量较原先多出1栋、达986栋。台湾普悠玛列车前日(21日)发生出轨意外,引发重大伤亡,而据NHK报导,出事的列车是由JR东海子公司「日本车辆制造」所制造,使得日本车辆制造暴跌7.31%。NEC劲扬1.95%,为了对抗陆厂,三星传携手NEC研发/贩卖5G基地台。车用需求夯,三井化学子公司传兴建MLCC用离型膜新厂、倍增产能,使得三井化学上扬0.37%。车用电阻需求佳,KOA上季营收成长9%、本季有望持续呈现增长,使得芯片电阻厂KOA上扬0.18%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续延续收涨,最高探至112.871一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验112.000关口。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标113关口,突破则进一步指向113.700一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜冲高回落,最高触及1.15484一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验1.14100一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.15200一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜大幅收跌,下破1.30000一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格支撑进一步考验1.29200一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标看向1.30000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收跌,回撤至1219一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价阻力目标指向1240一线。下行方面,金价关键支撑考验1200一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜震荡收升,最低触及68.45一线后反弹。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市来看,油价支撑目标考验67.80一线。上行方面,油价关键阻力位看向70.00关口。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收跌,交投于25300一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标考验25800一线。下行方面,价格支撑下看25100一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至22705一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格初步支撑依旧考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22750一线。

 

22 10月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 22, 2018

 

   Pulse of the Market

·      This week investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s data on U.S third quarter growth

·      Data on Friday showed that sales of U.S existing homes fell for a sixth straight month in September

·      British Prime Minister Theresa May is prepared to drop a key demand on the Irish border

·      Data showing that Canadian retail sales and inflation were weaker than expected last month

 

The U.S Dollar was lower on Friday as bond yields continued to hold near a one-week high, while the euro was higher. The U.S dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, fell 0.13% to 95.60. Treasury yields were higher, with the United States 10-Year note at 3.192%, not far from a one-week high of 3.211% on Thursday. Bond yields rose after hawkish Fed minutes on Wednesday showed the central bank’s conviction in gradually increasing interest rates in December and beyond. The dollar rose against the yen, with USD/JPY gaining 0.29% to 112.52. Elsewhere, the pound and euro recovered from monthly lows. The British Pound rose 0.17% to 1.3040 despite a hard Brexit looking more likely. The euro was slightly higher, with the Euro increasing 0.22% to 1.1479 after European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici played down the EU’s dispute with Italy’s budget. He said the EU had only sent a letter to Rome and it would be a long process going forward. Italy is expected to reply to the EU letter today. The Australian dollar was higher despite China posting lower than expected third-quarter GDP. The loonie was lower after core inflation rose less than expected and retail sales fell in August. This week investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s data on U.S third quarter growth, while monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada will also be in focus. The GDP data is expected to show that U.S. economic growth slowed in the third quarter from the second when the economy grew at its fastest pace in four years. Investors will also be getting an update on the health of the U.S. housing market, which has been hit by rising borrowing costs as a result of Fed rate hikes, with the release of figures on new and pending home sales. Data on Friday showed that sales of existing homes fell for a sixth straight month in September, in what was the largest decline in more than two years. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting on Thursday, ahead of the expected end of its monetary stimulus program in December. The Canadian dollar steadied against the greenback on Friday but held near a five-week low hit after domestic data showing a slowdown in inflation was supportive of the Bank of Canada maintaining a gradual approach to interest rate hikes. The annual inflation rate in September dipped to 2.2 percent from 2.8 percent as price pressures from gas and air travel eased. Analysts had forecast an annual rate of 2.7 percent.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:00 Remarks by RBA’s Debelle in Sydney Low      
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (AUG) Medium   0.4% 0.0%
07:00 Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (SEP) Low     1.0%
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (OCT 19) Low      
09:00 Euro-Zone Government Debt-Gross Domestic Product Ratio Low     86.7%
12:30 Canada Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (AUG) Low     1.5%
12:30 U.S Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (SEP) Low     0.18
22:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (OCT 21) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency recovered from one-week lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday as investors took profits on bets against the currency after it was burdened this week by concerns about Italy’s spending proposals and Britain’s plans to exit the European Union. The single currency had dropped on Thursday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1431 and a high of 1.1533 before closing the day around 1.1521 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen fell on Friday as easing tensions in the U.S stock market and higher U.S Treasury yields helped the Dollar/Yen close higher last week. It was a relatively tame week in the Forex markets compared to the previous week’s volatility. Last week, the U.S Dollar firmed against a basket of major currencies. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.12 and a high of 112.62 before closing the day around 112.50 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound found a relief at the end of a trying week, rallying sharply in the past hour amid a news report provided hope for a Brexit breakthrough in the coming days. UK government was prepared to drop its Irish border demands as a way to help ease the path towards securing an agreement with the EU. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3009 and a high of 1.3102 before closing the day at 1.3068 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar took a dive on Friday, flipping into negative territory versus its U.S rival following economic data that missed consensus estimates. Consumer price inflation for September read 2.2% year-on-year, compared with the FactSet consensus of 2.7%. For the month, Canada actually recorded disinflation of 0.4%, versus 0.1% inflation expected. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3025 and a high of 1.3130 before closing the day at 1.3104 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar ended Friday’s trading session higher. Aussie has sold off extensively in 2018, falling between 6% and 8% against its major counterparts – now some analysts are saying the declines have been so hefty the currency may be bottoming. But forming a bottom is one thing – starting a new trend higher is quite another.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7087 and a high of 0.7148 before closing the day at 0.7118 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.89%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.70%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.58%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.20%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.41%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 19, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14511 1.15333 1.14315 1.1521 0.0070
USD/JPY 112.158 112.629 112.122 112.504 0.3210
GBP/USD 1.30162 1.31026 1.30094 1.30682 0.0053
USD/CHF 0.99543 0.99759 0.99478 0.99551 0.0000
USD/CAD 130831 1.313 1.30254 1.31049 0.0022
EUR/JPY 128.452 129.662 128.441 129.631 1.1440
GBP/JPY 146.002 147.31 145.997 147.04 1.0150
CHF/JPY 112.634 113.069 112.558 112.98 0.3210
AUD/JPY 79.57 80.455 79.515 80.083 0.4600
EUR/GBP 0.87956 0.8831 0.87736 0.88139 0.0018
EUR/CHF 1.1400 1.14898 1.13896 1.14699 0.0070
GBP/CHF 1.29587 1.30532 1.2955 1.30108 0.0052

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1355 1.1393 1.1457 1.1495 1.1559 1.1597 1.1661
USD/JPY 111.70 111.91 112.21 112.42 112.71 112.93 113.22
GBP/USD 1.2924 1.2967 1.3018 1.3060 1.3111 1.3153 1.3204
USD/CHF 0.9915 0.9932 0.9943 0.9960 0.9971 0.9988 1.0000
USD/CAD 1.2939 1.2982 1.3044 1.3087 1.3148 1.3191 1.3253
EUR/JPY 127.61 128.02 128.83 129.24 130.05 130.47 131.27
GBP/JPY 144.94 145.47 146.25 146.78 147.57 148.10 148.88
CHF/JPY 112.16 112.36 112.67 112.87 113.18 113.38 113.69
AUD/JPY 78.64 79.08 79.58 80.02 80.52 80.96 81.46
EUR/GBP 0.8724 0.8749 0.8781 0.8806 0.8839 0.8864 0.8896
EUR/CHF 1.1310 1.1350 1.1410 1.1450 1.1510 1.1550 1.1610
GBP/CHF 1.2861 1.2908 1.2959 1.3006 1.3058 1.3105 1.3156

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-10-22

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周五(10月19日)下跌,在升破96.00关口之后,多头“高处不胜寒”。虽然加拿大日内最新出炉的CPI与零售销售数据表现不佳,使得美元/加元短线急涨约90点,令美元指数受到一定支撑。不过,美股在1987年股灾纪念日意外上涨,以及意大利预算问题出现缓和,使得美元指数需求受到打压。加上日内公布的美国9月成屋销售总数年化为515万户,低于前值534万户和预期530万户,录得逾两年最大跌幅,同时也是连续第六个月下滑,意味着尽管美国经济维持广泛增长,但楼市继续疲软表现,使得美元指数下跌,最终收于95.67。

现货黄金周五小幅收涨,亚市早盘开于1225.60美元/金衡盎司后金价下挫,录得日内低点1222.80美元/金衡盎司后反弹,金价震荡上行。欧市金价延续涨势后转盘整,多空争夺。美市多头上攻,录得日内高点1230.40美元/金衡盎司后转跌,金价震荡下行后转盘整,终收于1226.10美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周五收涨0.66美元,或0.96%,报69.30美元/桶。因伊朗制裁引发的供应空缺担忧依然严重,这为油价提供有效支撑,不过美国石油钻井数继续上升限制了油价的上行空间。

美国股市周五涨跌不一,尽管日用品生产商宝洁 PG.N 发布强劲业绩带来的影响,但受到利率上升以及地缘政治紧张局势可能削弱美国经济成长的持续忧虑所抵消。道琼工业指数收涨64.89点或0.26%至25444.34点。标普500指数收低1.00点或0.036%至2767.78点。纳斯达克指数收低36.11点或0.48%至7449.03点。

个股方面,日用品公司宝洁股价急升8.80%,此前公司发布第一季营收意外增长。该股大涨提振道琼工业指数走高,扶助标普500必需消费品板块 .SPLRCS 升2.31%。支付公司PayPal PYPL.O 股价攀升9.42%,创下两年来最大单日涨幅,此前该公司公布的季度获利超过预期。而贸易政策忧虑令霍尼韦尔HON.N 股价承压,该股回吐稍早涨幅,收跌1.11%,此前该公司表示,中国经济增长放缓,关税可能令其在2019年损失“数亿美元”。

日本股市日经指数周五收跌,因美股前日重挫、加上市场忧心中国景气减速,拖累日经225指数开盘后随即下跌。不过随着低接买盘涌入,加上中国上证指数周五大涨、市场期待日本央行(BOJ)进场购买ETF,也提振日经指数跌幅缓步收敛,终场跌0.56%或126.08点,收22,532.08点。

个股方面,工业机器人关键零件「减速机」大厂Harmonic暴跌5.58%,收3,300日元,创约1年8个月来收盘新低纪录。贸易战导致中国设备投资缩手,Harmonic上季订单额骤减近6成。软银和任天堂等权重股亦走软,分别下挫1.13%和3.96%。日本苹果概念股走跌,未受iPhone XS/XS Max美国销售强劲消息激励。村田制作所下跌1.42%、Alps下跌1.92%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收涨,持稳112.000关口上方。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验112.000一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标进一步指向113.000关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜反弹收涨,最低触及1.14317一线后走高。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标拐头向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验1.14400一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.15800一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至1.31027一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格关键支撑依旧考验1.30一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.31300一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜基本持平,震荡交投于1226一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,金价阻力目标指向1240一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑考验1213一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅反弹,最高触及69.88一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,油价支撑目标考验67.80一线。上行方面,油价关键阻力位看向70关口。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜微幅收升,交投于25400一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标考验25800一线。下行方面,价格支撑下看25100一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅反弹,最高探至22685一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格初步支撑依旧考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22750一线。

 

 

19 10月 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Friday, October 19, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25383 2772.75 7138.75
+0.35% +0.20% +0.39%

U.S stocks slumped again yesterday as investors continued to sell shares of technology and internet companies, industrials, and companies that rely on consumer spending. Several industrial companies tumbled after releasing weak quarterly reports, and European stocks also fell as European Union leaders criticized Italy’s spending plans. At the start of trading, stocks took small losses as bond prices fell and interest rates spiked. While the gain in interest rates didn’t last, stocks turned lower late in the morning, and by the end of the day they had wiped away most of their big rally from Tuesday. Stocks have skidded over the last two weeks, and there are signs investors are worried about future economic growth. The S&P 500 has fallen 5.5 percent in volatile trading since Oct. 3, and technology, industrial and energy companies have taken some of the biggest losses. Those companies tend to do better when the economy is growing more quickly and consumers and businesses have more money to spend.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

3Q

China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 02:00 6.6% 6.7%

sep

China Retail Sales (YoY) 02:00 9.0% 9.0%

 

BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo 06:35    

sep

U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing 08:30 4.6b 5.9b

sep

U.K PSNB ex Banking Groups 08:30 4.5b 6.8b

aug

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) 12:30 0.4% 0.3%

sep

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:30 2.7% 2.8%

sep

U.S Existing Home Sales (MoM) 14:00 -0.9% 0.0%

 

BOE Governor Carney Speaks in New York 15:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.27% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 1.28% or 0.69 points to trade at 54.65 at the close. Meanwhile, Merck & Company Inc. added 0.54% or 0.39 points to end at 72.21 and Exxon Mobil Corp was up 0.43% or 0.35 points to 81.85 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Caterpillar Inc., which fell 3.92% or 5.54 points to trade at 135.80 at the close. International Business Machines declined 2.61% or 3.50 points to end at 130.55 and Home Depot Inc. was down 2.55% or 4.73 points to 180.44.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 2.06% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Proteostasis Therapeutics Inc. which rose 447.62% to 10.35, China Ceramics Co Ltd which was up 105.03% to settle at 3.6700 and Endocyte Inc. which gained 50.29% to close at 23.385. The worst performers were Auris Medical Holding AG which was down 27.35% to 0.850 in late trade, LM Funding America Inc. which lost 23.75% to settle at 3.21 and CDTi Advanced Materials Inc. which was down 23.26% to 1.7114 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices nudged higher today on signs of surging demand in China, the world’s second-biggest oil user, though prices are set to fall for a second week amid concerns of the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war is limiting overall economic activity. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $68.84 a barrel. For the week, Brent crude was 1.1 percent lower while WTI futures were down 3.5 percent, putting both on track for a second consecutive weekly decline. Refinery throughput in China, the world’s second-largest oil importer, rose to a record high of 12.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in September as some independent plants restarted operations after prolonged shutdowns over summer to shore up inventories, government data showed on Friday. The refinery consumption may rise through the fourth quarter as several state-owned Chinese refiners return to service after maintenance.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices nudged higher early today as Asian shares fell on renewed political and economic concerns, with the metal on track for its third straight weekly rise. Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,227.31 an ounce. It was up about 0.7 percent for the week. U.S gold futures were little changed at $1,230.60 an ounce. Stocks in Asia fell as global sentiment soured on issues ranging from trade worries, Italy’s 2019 budget, higher U.S interest rates and growth concerns in China that led to a slump in Chinese shares in the previous session. China’s third-quarter GDP data due on Friday is expected to show growth slipped to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis, as domestic demand faltered and exporters started to feel the pinch from a bitter Sino-U.S trade dispute. U.S trade policy towards China over the next few years will become more confrontational, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who remain convinced U.S. growth has peaked and will slow substantially next year. Italy’s Prime Minister defended its free-spending budget on Thursday, brushing off criticism from Brussels as the European Commission stepped up pressure over a draft it labelled an unprecedented breach of EU fiscal rules. The United States is requesting that a World Trade Organization dispute resolution panel get involved in a clash over international retaliation over U.S tariffs on steel and aluminum, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. U.S President Donald Trump said on Thursday he presumes missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is dead and that the U.S response to Saudi Arabia will likely be “very severe” but that he still wanted to get to the bottom of what exactly happened. The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy path would raise the risks of recession in an economy where recent, unexpectedly strong growth may start to taper anyway, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell more than two per cent in yesterday’s session, with the benchmark November contract recording its largest single-day decline since August, on disappointing weekly export sales and improving U.S harvest weather. Corn and wheat followed the weak tone.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, October 18, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25706 25724 25216 25383 -354
S & P 500 SPM18 2813.25 2814.5 2756.5 2772.75 -43.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7306.75 7308.75 7094.25 7138.75 -174.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25671 25684 25206 25400 18
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22870 22890 22575 22580 -305
FTSE 100 FTH18 7023 7051 6953.5 6985 -47.5
Gold GCJ18 1225 1233.2 1221.5 1228.6 3.4
Silver SIK18 1459.5 1467 1445.5 1458 -4
Copper HGK18 277.55 278.2 272.65 273.15 -4.5
Crude Oil CLK18 70 70 68.44 68.63 -1.38
Wheat WK18 515 519 510.75 513 -3.75
Soybeans SK18 882.25 883.25 862.75 863 -21
Corn CK18 372.25 372.75 369.25 370.5 -3.25

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24650 24933 25158 25441 25666 25949 26174
SPM18 2690.00 2723.25 2748.00 2781.25 2806.00 2839.25 2864.00
NDM18 6837.92 6966.08 7052.42 7180.58 7266.92 7395.08 7481.42
HSH18 24698 24952 25176 25430 25654 25908 26132
NKH18 22158 22367 22473 22682 22788 22997 23103
FTH18 6844.50 6899.00 6942.00 6996.50 7039.50 7094.00 7137.00
GCJ18 1210.63 1216.07 1222.33 1227.77 1234.03 1239.47 1245.73
SIK18 1425.17 1435.33 1446.67 1456.83 1468.17 1478.33 1489.67
HGK18 265.58 269.12 271.13 274.67 276.68 280.22 282.23
CLK18 66.49 67.46 68.05 69.02 69.61 70.58 71.17
WK18 501.25 506.00 509.50 514.25 517.75 522.50 526.00
SK18 835.58 849.17 856.08 869.67 876.58 890.17 897.08
CK18 365.42 367.33 368.92 370.83 372.42 374.33 375.92

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-10-19

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周四(10月18日)上涨,因美国国债收益率接近多年高位。且美联储9月会议纪要显示,美联储决策者在进一步提高借贷成本的必要性上大体一致。数据方面。日内公布的美国上周初请失业救济金人数为21.0万人,低于前值的21.4万人,数据表明美国劳动力市场状况进一步收紧。而美国10月费城联储制造业指数为22.2,低于前值22.9但高于预期20.0。费城联储表示虽然美国10月费城联储制造业指数略微下滑,但整体依然呈稳定增加状态。加上美国9月咨商会领先指标月率为0.5%,高于前值0.4%且符合预期,表明了临近2019年美国商业圈依然处于强劲增长的轨道上。美市尾盘,美元指数一举触及96.00关口,最终报收于95.98。

现货黄金周四小幅收涨,亚市早盘开于1221.70美元/金衡盎司后金价下挫,录得日内低点1218.43美元/金衡盎司后反弹,金价震荡上行。欧市金价延续涨势后转盘整,多空争夺。美市多头上攻,录得日内高点1229.80美元/金衡盎司后转跌,金价震荡下行,终收于1225.60美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周四收跌1.39美元,或1.98%,报68.64美元/桶。美国原油库存报告的利空影响仍在发酵,暂时抵消了中东紧张局势和伊朗原油制裁的利多影响,同时美元强势走高也令油价承压。

美国股市周四再度大跌。因欧盟就意大利预算问题发出警告,市场对美国和沙特之间可能出现紧张关系的担忧加剧,进一步削弱了投资者的风险偏好。道琼工业指数收低327.23点或1.27%至25379.45点。标普500指数收低40.43点或1.44%至2768.78点。纳斯达克指数收低157.56点或2.06%至7485.14点。

个股方面,科技股领跌大盘,大型科技股当中,奈飞(NFLX)收跌4.93%、FaceBook(FB)收跌2.82%、谷歌(GOOG)收跌2.48%、微软(MSFT)收跌2% ,亚马逊(AMZN)收跌3.33%。 Textron暴跌11.25%,United Rentals重挫14.93%,而包装公司Sealed Air Corp SEE.N 大幅下滑8.30%,此前该公司下调全年盈利预估,因原材料成本上升和运费增加。

日本股市日经指数周四收低,因美国联邦储备理事会(美联储/FED)发布了偏鹰派的上次政策会议记录,削弱全球市场人气。加上日本9月出口意外下滑打击机械制造类股,也拖累日经指数翻黑。日经指数终场收跌0.80%或182.96点,收22,658.16点。

个股方面,Fanuc大跌4.08%、安川电机暴跌7.84%。日本媒体Kabutan指出,Fanuc今日为日经指数带来30.19点跌点、「负面贡献度」高居日经指数成分股之冠。日本液晶面板大厂夏普重挫1.73%。 TV用液晶面板供需紧绷、价格连3个月增长,不过因陆厂正进行增产、市场普遍预期面板价格涨势恐难长期延续。 Panasonic跌0.68%。 Panasonic宣布将停产水银灯,将强化LED照明产品阵容、力促转换至LED照明。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜回落收跌,一度下破112.000关口后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格支撑看向111.400一线。上行方面,价格关键阻力目标依旧考验113.000关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜延续收跌,最低探至1.14478一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格支撑进一步考验1.14000一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.15200一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜延续收跌,回撤至50日均线寻求支撑。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱显现,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格关键支撑考验1.30一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.31300一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收涨,震荡交投于1225一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,金价阻力目标指向1240一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑考验1211一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜再度下跌,失守70关口。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市来看,油价支撑目标考验67.50一线。上行方面,油价阻力位看向70关口。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜大幅收跌,最低触及25216一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标向下延伸。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标考验25700一线。下行方面,价格支撑下看25000关口。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜大幅收跌,最低探至22155一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22750一线。

 

 

18 10月 2018

Daily Market View

     

Daily Market View

Thursday, October 18, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25737 2816.50 7313.00
+1.78% +1.82% +2.45%

Wall Street stocks retreated earlier yesterday following lackluster U.S housing data and mixed corporate earnings. About 20 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.7 percent. The broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent, while the tech-rich NASDAQ Index lost 0.4 percent. The early weakness came after US stocks had surged Tuesday, partially recovering losses suffered the prior week. Government housing data showed drops in both new construction and permits in September, the latest sign of weakness for a market that has been pressured by higher lumber costs and increasing interest rates. But later in the day after the release of FOMC minutes U.S stocks reversed early losses to end the day slightly lower. Dow member IBM sank six percent after the technology giant reported a drop of two percent in third-quarter revenues to $18.8 billion, below analyst expectations. But other companies had strong results, including Netflix, which surged 7.1 percent after reporting that quarterly profit more than tripled to $403 million.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

Australia Employment Change (SEP) 00:30 15.0k 44.0k

sep

Australia Unemployment Rate (SEP) 00:30 5.3% 5.3%

 

BOJ Kuroda speaks at Branch Managers’s Meeting 00:30    

sep

U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (SEP) 08:30 3.8% 3.5%

oct

U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (OCT) 12:30 20 22.9

oct

U.S Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 13) 12:30 210k 214k

oct

U.S Continuing Claims (OCT 6) 12:30 1668k 1660k

sep

U.S Leading Index (SEP) 14:00 0.5% 0.4%

sep

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) 23:30 1.3% 1.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.36%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which rose 2.97% or 6.58 points to trade at 228.28 at the close. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson added 2.12% or 2.90 points to end at 139.46 and McDonald’s Corporation was up 1.65% or 2.70 points to 166.77 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were International Business Machines, which fell 7.63% or 11.07 points to trade at 134.05 at the close. Home Depot Inc. declined 4.34% or 8.41 points to end at 185.17 and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was down 1.93%.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 0.04%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which rose 569.69% to 10.200, China Advanced Construction Materials which was up 62.28% to settle at 3.700 and Sears Holdings Corporation which gained 57.50% to close at 0.63. The worst performers were Revolution Lighting Technologies which was down 38.28% to 1.5800 in late trade, Bridgeline Digital Inc. which lost 32.41% to settle at 0.4721 and Blink Charging Co which was down 31.18% to 2.4500 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday, with U.S futures dipping below $70 a barrel for the first time in a month, after U.S stockpiles rose by 6.5 million barrels, almost triple what analysts had forecast, while exports dropped. U.S light crude oil ended yesterday’s session down $2.17, or 3 percent, at $69.75. Oil had been rising on worries about Iranian sanctions and tensions between the U.S and Saudi Arabia after the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. crude stocks rose 6.5 million barrels last week, the fourth straight weekly build, as exports were down to 1.8 million barrels per day, the U.S EIA said in a report. Inventories rose sharply even as U.S. crude production slipped 300,000 bpd to 10.9 million bpd last week, which analysts attributed to the effects of offshore facilities closing temporarily for Hurricane Michael. A tick higher in refining activity and a drop in production due to hurricane activity in the Gulf was not enough to halt a fourth consecutive climb in stocks – and a solid one at that.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices edged up yesterday, carried along by a retreat in global stock markets and technical momentum, despite the normally bearish influence of a stronger dollar. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,224.87 per ounce, just below the 2-1/2 month peak of $1,233.26 scaled on Monday as a rout in stock markets forced investors to seek safety in the metal. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,228.10 per ounce. Gold is rising as the stock market is giving back gains and you have enough to worry about in the world to keep the metal from selling off. But the rallies are being capped by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike expectations. A global stock market rally proved short-lived as warnings over a slowing European auto sector soured the upbeat mood. Wall Street fell on disappointing results from IBM, after enjoying its best session in eight months the previous day. The Fed raised interest rates last month for the third time this year and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020. Gold was also getting a leg from nervous shorts, who are trying to pull out. The market was surprised by the extended short positions and the spike indicated a lot of traders were wrong-footed. It also indicates that the dips are being used to cover the short positions. Gold was testing resistance at the 100-day moving average of about $1,226, and a convincing break above that is seen as a bullish sign for investors who follow technical signals. Meanwhile, some central banks have taken their holdings of gold to record levels in recent months in an effort to maintain the value of their currencies against a rising U.S dollar. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, have risen about 2.5 percent in the past eight days, which analysts said shows a shift in perception in sentiment among gold ETF investors. In other metals, silver slipped 0.1 percent at $14.63 per ounce.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell for a second session yesterday as forecasts of dry weather in parts of the United States indicated farmers there would be able to pick up the pace of harvesting. Soybean and corn prices have come under pressure from expectations that dry weather across the U.S Midwest will aid harvesting.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, October 17, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25720 25843 25458 25737 -40
S & P 500 SPM18 2816.25 2824.25 2783.25 2816.5 -2
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7339 7368 7221 7313 -43.25
Hang Seng HSH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22870 22945 22755 22885 480
FTSE 100 FTH18 7054 7066.5 6989.5 7032.5 -19
Gold GCJ18 1228 1232.7 1223.5 1225.2 -2.7
Silver SIK18 1467.5 1474.5 1460.5 1462 -5
Copper HGK18 278.2 280.45 275.35 277.65 -0.7
Crude Oil CLK18 72.14 72.4 69.4 70.01 -2.13
Wheat WK18 521.5 523.25 515.75 516.75 -6.75
Soybeans SK18 883.25 889.25 881.5 884 -0.5
Corn CK18 374.25 375.75 373 373.75 -1

 

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25131 25294 25516 25679 25901 26064 26286
SPM18 2750.75 2767.00 2791.75 2808.00 2832.75 2849.00 2873.75
NDM18 7086.33 7153.67 7233.33 7300.67 7380.33 7447.67 7527.33
HSH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
NKH18 22588 22672 22778 22862 22968 23052 23158
FTH18 6915.50 6952.50 6992.50 7029.50 7069.50 7106.50 7146.50
GCJ18 1212.37 1217.93 1221.57 1227.13 1230.77 1236.33 1239.97
SIK18 1442.83 1451.67 1456.83 1465.67 1470.83 1479.67 1484.83
HGK18 270.08 272.72 275.18 277.82 280.28 282.92 285.38
CLK18 65.81 67.60 68.81 70.60 71.81 73.60 74.81
WK18 506.42 511.08 513.92 518.58 521.42 526.08 528.92
SK18 872.83 877.17 880.58 884.92 888.33 892.67 896.08
CK18 369.83 371.42 372.58 374.17 375.33 376.92 378.08

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

18 10月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

       

FOREX Newsletter

October 18, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar rose as traders waited for the latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve

·      U.S Building permits declined in September, increasing concerns over the health of the housing sector

·      The pound was lower as uncertainty over Brexit negotiations will lead to a deal spooked investors

·      The shared currency was also lower yesterday, with EUR/USD dipping 0.40%

The dollar was firmer against its major peers on Thursday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting affirmed expectations that the central bank is likely to continue raising interest rates this year. The minutes from the Fed’s Sept. 25-26 meeting showed every Fed policymaker backed raising interest rates and also generally agreed borrowing costs were set to rise further, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s view that the tightening has already gone too far. Interest rate futures are now pricing in an 83 percent likelihood that the Fed raises rates in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the fourth hike this year. Two more increases are expected next year. The dollar index which measures its value against six major peers, traded at 95.65, up 0.08 percent today. The dollar is being bid as there is follow through support post the release of the FOMC minutes. Dollar bulls are playing to the view that the market is underpricing what the U.S. Fed can do. U.S. benchmark 10-year treasury yields climbed to 3.21 percent yesterday, on increasing rate hike expectations. The last time they traded below the psychologically important 3 percent level was on Sept. 18. Market focus is also trained on Rome, where the Italian government is headed for a showdown with Brussels over Italy’s insistence on pushing through a budget deficit target of 2.4 percent of GDP, wider than its previous target of 1.9 percent. Italy’s draft budget for next year, which boosts welfare spending, cuts the retirement age and hikes deficit spending, could breach the European Union’s fiscal rules that require Rome to lower its large public debt. The blowout has sparked investor concerns about more political tensions in the euro zone between Brussels and the common currency’s member states. The euro changed hands at $1.1497 today, trading flat versus the greenback, after losing 0.65 percent yesterday. The euro has lost 2.73 percent versus the dollar over the last three weeks. The British pound lost 0.12 percent versus the dollar on Thursday to $1.3096, weakening after EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier’s comments that more time was needed to secure an exit deal for Britain. The Canadian dollar changed hands with the dollar gaining 0.2 percent versus the loonie. The Dollar has risen 1.6 percent versus the Canadian dollar over the past twelve trading sessions.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Employment Change (SEP) High   15.0k 44.0k
00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (SEP) High   5.3% 5.3%
00:30 BOJ Kuroda speaks at Branch Managers’s Meeting High      
00:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (3Q) Medium     7
08:30 U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (SEP) Medium   3.8% 3.5%
12:30 Canada ADP Publishes September Payrolls Report Low      
12:30 U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (OCT) Medium   20 22.9
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 13) Medium   210k 214k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (OCT 6) Medium   1668k 1660k
14:00 U.S Leading Index (SEP) Medium   0.5% 0.4%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) High   1.3% 1.3%

Euro

The single currency fell against the Dollar as the Greenback strengthened yesterday. Euro zone inflation accelerated in September in line with market expectations, driven mainly by a spike in energy prices, but core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food costs, edged lower, data showed yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1494 and a high of 1.1579 before closing the day around 1.1499 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair was little changed against most of its major peers yesterday but made gains against the yen as upbeat Wall Street earnings turned global sentiment away from safe haven assets. The yen had strengthened over seven out of eight sessions. The yen has taken Swiss franc’s mantle as the safe haven currency of choice. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.99 and a high of 112.64 before closing the day around 112.63 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound weakened yesterday after data showed inflation fell more than expected in September and before a European Union summit at which Britain will try to unblock stalled negotiations for a Brexit deal. Economic data had briefly redirected traders’ attention towards the British economy and away from Brexit this week. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3097 and a high of 1.3190 before closing the day at 1.3113 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart yesterday, pulling back from an 11-day high the day before as domestic data showed lower factory shipments and the greenback broadly rose ahead of the release of Federal Reserve minutes. Canadian factory sales fell by 0.4 per cent in August from July on lower motor vehicle sales. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2930 and a high of 1.3023 before closing the day at 1.3019 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar should stabilize over coming weeks as much of the relevant bad news is now in the price of the currency, while an anticipated uptick in hedging activity among asset managers is also likely to support the Antipodean, according to NAB. The findings from one of Australia’s most important lenders comes as we enter the final quarter of a year. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7109 and a high of 0.7157 before closing the day at 0.7118 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

Sterling-Yen

 

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.19%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.10%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.09%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 17, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15735 1.15791 1.14946 1.14992 -0.0074
USD/JPY 112.254 112.656 111.996 112.63 0.3960
GBP/USD 1.31801 1.31909 1.30978 1.3113 -0.0071
USD/CHF 0.99044 0.99528 0.9898 0.99511 0.0046
USD/CAD 1.29321 1.30236 1.29303 1.30193 0.0088
EUR/JPY 129.92 130.134 129.15 129.54 -0.3580
GBP/JPY 147.967 148.228 147.033 147.714 -0.2840
CHF/JPY 113.304 113.457 112.807 113.157 -0.1250
AUD/JPY 80.142 80.305 79.631 80.052 -0.0780
EUR/GBP 0.8778 0.88076 0.8763 0.87665 -0.0008
EUR/CHF 1.14637 1.14807 1.14352 1.14438 -0.0020
GBP/CHF 1.3056 1.30675 1.30016 1.30503 -0.0008

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1385 1.1440 1.1470 1.1524 1.1554 1.1609 1.1639
USD/JPY 111.54 111.77 112.20 112.43 112.86 113.09 113.52
GBP/USD 1.2984 1.3041 1.3077 1.3134 1.3170 1.3227 1.3263
USD/CHF 0.9860 0.9879 0.9915 0.9934 0.9970 0.9989 1.0025
USD/CAD 1.2865 1.2898 1.2959 1.2991 1.3052 1.3084 1.3145
EUR/JPY 128.10 128.62 129.08 129.61 130.07 130.59 131.05
GBP/JPY 145.89 146.46 147.09 147.66 148.28 148.85 149.48
CHF/JPY 112.17 112.49 112.82 113.14 113.47 113.79 114.12
AUD/JPY 79.01 79.32 79.69 80.00 80.36 80.67 81.04
EUR/GBP 0.8706 0.8734 0.8750 0.8779 0.8795 0.8824 0.8840
EUR/CHF 1.1380 1.1408 1.1426 1.1453 1.1471 1.1499 1.1517
GBP/CHF 1.2946 1.2974 1.3012 1.3040 1.3078 1.3106 1.3144

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

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