31 10月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 31, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Stronger than expected consumer confidence helped sustain the Greenback’s gains

·      The BOE will release its Quarterly Inflation Report with a monetary policy announcement

·      German Chancellor’s decision to step down in 2021 has made it difficult for EURO to rally

·      The Australian Dollar hit an 8 day high ahead of this evening’s third quarter inflation report

The U.S Dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies except for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Stronger than expected consumer confidence helped sustain the greenback’s gains but the bulk of rally occurred well before the data was released. Instead, it was the uptick in US bond yields, softer Eurozone data and BoE concerns that prevented EUR, GBP and JPY from rallying. The recovery in US stocks today was strong but the late day move was not driven by the consumer confidence index which hit an 18 year high. Weaker Eurozone data and German Chancellor Merkel’s decision to step down as chancellor in 2021 has made it difficult for EURO to rally. Not only did Eurozone confidence fall across the board with the business climate, industrial confidence and services confidence slipping but GDP growth also slowed unexpectedly in Q3. Economists had been looking for growth to remain steady at 0.4%, but instead the regional economy expanded by half that amount (0.2%) between July and September. Inflation is still on the rise according to German CPI but the lack of growth makes Draghi’s optimism a hard sell. Its time to turn your focus to the British pound because today, the Bank of England will release its Quarterly Inflation Report in conjunction with a monetary policy announcement. They are not expected to change interest rates but changes to their economic projections and the overall tone of the report will have a significant impact on the currency. Sterling dropped to a 2 month low versus the U.S. dollar today as the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation report and Governor Carney’s comments will determine whether the currency falls through its August lows or turns higher from here.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) Medium -10 -10 -9
00:30 Australia Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (3Q) High 1.9% 1.9% 2.1%
01:00 China Non-manufacturing PMI (OCT) Medium 53.9 54.6 54.9
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI (OCT) High 50.2 50.6 50.8
03:08 BOJ Outlook Report High      
03:08 BOJ Rate Decision (OCT 31) High -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
03:08 BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target (OCT 31) High 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (OCT) Medium 43.0 43.5 43.4
05:00 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (SEP) Medium -1.5% -0.8% 1.6%
07:00 German Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP) Medium -2.6% 1.0% 1.6%
10:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (SEP) Medium   8.1% 8.1%
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (OCT) High   1.1% 0.9%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 26) Medium     4.9%
12:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (OCT) Medium   187k 230k
12:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (AUG) High   2.4% 2.4%
13:45 U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager (OCT) Medium   60 60.4
14:30 DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories (OCT 26) Medium   3106K 6346k

 

Euro

The single currency has entered the new week on its back foot after the outcome of another regional election in Germany saw the single currency’s political headache turn into a migraine yesterday. The Euro has had a volatile start to the week, with the news that Angela Merkel is likely to leave her post in December shaking confidence in the region. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 1.1339 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1342 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted considerable losses in yesterday’s session, erasing Friday’s gains. On the release front, Japanese retail sales posted a strong gain of 2.1%, matching the forecast. In the U.S, the Core PCE Price Index gained 0.2%, edging above the estimate of 0.1%. Personal spending edged up to 0.4%, matching the forecast. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.28 and a high of 113.10 before closing the day around 113.09 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell against the U.S Dollar since breaching 1.2850 in late London and at the start of the North America trade as the dollar and risk appetite firms up. The Dollar has been finding a bid again with US stock markets battling back lost ground on Monday, following suit of a bounce in European bourses. . Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2694 and a high of 1.2810 before closing the day at 1.2704 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower yesterday, trading in a narrow range as stocks rose and oil prices declined. Canada runs a current account deficit and exports many commodities, including oil, so its economy tends to benefit when capital flows freely. Still, concern over the global economy put crude on track for its biggest monthly fall since mid-2016. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3098 and a high of 1.3145 before closing the day at 1.3108 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar started the week lower against the U.S Dollar. Aussie has been hammered as risk sentiment took a knock following weakness in the Chinese Yuan. The RBA has held rates at 1.5 per cent since mid-2016 and markets imply only a 50-50 chance of a hike by December next year. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7019 and a high of 0.7102 before closing the day at 0.7088 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 36 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.41%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.02%.

   

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.36%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.44%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.34%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 30, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13714 1.13865 1.13391 1.13428 -0.0029
USD/JPY 112.355 113.102 112.285 113.099 0.7510
GBP/USD 1.27964 1.28107 1.2694 1.27042 -0.0087
USD/CHF 1.00162 1.00504 1.00065 1.00504 0.0033
USD/CAD 1.31314 1.3145 1.30982 1.3108 -0.0024
EUR/JPY 127.776 128.416 127.712 128.305 0.5280
GBP/JPY 143.796 144.367 143.189 143.712 -0.0240
CHF/JPY 112.148 112.741 112.073 112.495 0.3660
AUD/JPY 79.265 80.342 79.233 80.338 1.0780
EUR/GBP 0.88846 0.89377 0.8881 0.89265 0.0039
EUR/CHF 1.13905 1.14167 1.13685 1.14021 0.0010
GBP/CHF 1.28181 1.28354 1.27529 1.27714 -0.0043

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1278 1.1309 1.1326 1.1356 1.1373 1.1404 1.1421
USD/JPY 111.74 112.01 112.56 112.83 113.37 113.65 114.19
GBP/USD 1.2545 1.2620 1.2662 1.2736 1.2779 1.2853 1.2895
USD/CHF 0.9977 0.9992 1.0021 1.0036 1.0065 1.0080 1.0109
USD/CAD 1.3042 1.3070 1.3089 1.3117 1.3136 1.3164 1.3183
EUR/JPY 127.17 127.44 127.87 128.14 128.58 128.85 129.28
GBP/JPY 141.97 142.58 143.15 143.76 144.32 144.93 145.50
CHF/JPY 111.46 111.77 112.13 112.44 112.80 113.10 113.47
AUD/JPY 78.49 78.86 79.60 79.97 80.71 81.08 81.82
EUR/GBP 0.8836 0.8858 0.8892 0.8915 0.8949 0.8972 0.9006
EUR/CHF 1.1327 1.1348 1.1375 1.1396 1.1423 1.1444 1.1471
GBP/CHF 1.2655 1.2704 1.2738 1.2787 1.2820 1.2869 1.2903

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-10-31

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周二(10月30日)收涨,美市盘中美国公布尔日内经济数据,令美元指数多头备受鼓舞。数据显示,美国8月S&P/CS房价指数年率为5.49%,低于前值5.92%;美国10月消费者信心指数为137.9,高于预期值136.8,但低于前值138.4。数据公布后,提振美元指数上涨,录得日内高点97.03,最终美元指数报收97.00。

现货黄金周二亚市早盘开于1229.30美元/金衡盎司后,金价短暂上涨,录得日内高点1230.30美元/金衡盎司后转跌,金价震荡下行。欧市盘中金价延续跌势,录得日内低点1219.60美元/金衡盎司后反弹。美市盘中多头上攻,但攻势未能持久,最终收盘于1222.80美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周二收跌0.29美元,或0.44%,报66.37美元/桶。美国即将对伊朗实施第二轮制裁,恐进一步打压原油供应,但沙特等国将继续增产,从而填补伊朗制裁造成的供应缺口,令市场对供应过剩局面的忧虑情绪加重,同时美元指数继续走高也令油价承压。

美国股市周二收盘三大股指跳升逾1%,受助于芯片和运输类股强劲上涨,因投资者利用股市近期大幅回落的机会买入。道琼工业指数上涨431.72点,或1.77%,报24874.64点,标普500指数上涨41.38点,或1.57%,报2682.63点;纳斯达克指数上涨111.36点,或1.58%,报7161.65点。

个股方面,亚马逊 AMZN 小跌0.55%;微软 MSFT 下跌0.12%;Netflix NFLX 小涨0.34%;Alphabet  GOOGL 上扬1.43%。脸书 FB 上涨2.91%,但盘后公布财报失利,股价跳水近 3%。苹果 AAPL 周二发布第二场秋季发布会,推出新版 iPad Pro、MacBook Air 和 Mac mini,该公司股价收涨 0.50%。IBM IBM 周二宣布,在现有库藏股计划下,将回购高达 40 亿美元的自家股票,然而受到 2020-2021 年库藏股计划暂停的影响,市场仍有疑虑,终场下跌连续 3.54%,创连续五个交易日走贬。

因美股29日走跌,拖累日经225指数30日以低盘21,049点(昨日收盘为21,149点)开出,不过之后因日元走贬,加上中国上证指数今日弹升,也激励日经225指数强弹翻红,终场涨1.45%或307.49点,收21,457.29点

个股方面,日本MLCC厂商走扬。村田制作所大涨3.06%、TDK劲扬2.0%、京瓷劲扬1.63%。车用需求支撑、MLCC缺货,日本6大电子零件厂上季订单额创历史新高。贸易战冲击、上季中国订单腰斩,Fanuc下砍财测。不过Fanuc不受财测调降影响,今日股价飙涨3.38%。Sony上扬1.03%。确保影像传感器主导权,Sony传将对半导体事业投资6,000亿日元、将产能扩增2-3成。日本轴承龙头NSK上扬0.27%,盘中一度暴跌逾5%,创约2年来(2016年11月9日以来)新低水平。贸易战加剧、订单出现减速迹象,NSK调降财测。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续收涨,站上113关口。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,双线金叉,RSI指标向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验112.500一线。上行方面,价格阻力位进一步指向113.400一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投于1.13500一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标向下逼近超卖区。后市看来,价格考验1.13200一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位看向1.14100一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜延续收跌,刷新新低至1.26949一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标向下逼近超卖区。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验1.26700一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力位看向1.28400一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜延续收跌,最低探至1219一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标向下延伸。后市来看,金价阻力位指向1236一线。下行方面,金价关键支撑考验1210一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜震荡收跌,最低触及65.35一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,油价支撑目标考验64.60一线。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向67.40一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜反弹收涨,最高探至24896一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上脱离超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位依旧考验25000关口。下行方面,价格支撑下看24400一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜反弹收涨,收复21000关口,最高探高至21670一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上脱离超卖区。后市来看,价格支撑考验21000一线,上方阻力位看向22000一线。

 

市场报告                     2018-10-30

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周一(10月29日)上涨,但美国日内公布的经济数据表现良莠不齐。数据显示,美国9月核心个人消费支出物价指数年率为2.0%,与前值及预期值相同;美国9月个人消费支出物价指数年率为2.0%,低于前值2.2%;美国9月个人收入月率为0.4%,高于前值0.3%。数据公布后,提振美元指数上涨,但在收盘前稍微回落,最终美元指数报收96.59。

现货黄金周一亚市早盘开于1232.90美元/金衡盎司后,金价短暂上涨,录得日内高点1235.00美元/金衡盎司后转跌,金价震荡下行。欧市盘中金价延续跌势后转盘整。美市盘中受美元指数提振影响,金价大幅下挫,录得日内低点1223.95美元/金衡盎司后反弹,收复部分失地,最终收盘于1229.30美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周五收跌0.89美元,或-1.32%,报66.66美元/桶。美国股市周一收盘走低,回吐了早些时候的大幅涨幅,受到美中关税消息可能以及科技股下跌的打压。美国三大指数一度均进入修正区间。对企业盈利增长可能放缓以及全球经济放缓的担忧,同时供应过剩担忧也在升温,均令油价下行压力不断加大。

美国股市周一下跌,标普500指数收盘时险些确认2018年二度进入修正区间,因对美中贸易紧张关系升级的忧虑再现,且大型科技和互联网公司的股价急挫。道琼工业指数下跌245.39点,或0.99%,报24442.92点,标普500指数跌17.44点,或0.66%,报2641.25点;纳斯达克指数下挫116.92点,或1.63%,报7050.29点。

个股方面,亚马逊 AMZN 领跌 6.33%;Netflix NFLX 重跌 5%;Alphabet GOOGL 走跌 4.52%;脸书 FB 下跌 2.26%;苹果 AAPL 下跌 1.88%;微软 MSFT 下跌 2.91%半导体类股;Nvidia NVDA 下跌 6.39%;AMD AMD 下跌 4.42%;美光 MU 下跌 2.09%;Intel INTC 下跌 0.63%。

日本股市周一硅晶圆巨擘信越化学调升财测、股价狂飙,虽带动日经225指数29日以红盘开出后、指数涨幅一度扩大至约280点,不过因中国上证指数重挫、冲击投资人信心,也拖累日经指数翻黑,终场跌0.16%或34.80点,收21,149.80点。

个股方面,日立跌0.61%。日立宣布将溢价16%、对台湾永大实施TOB,目标取得永大全数股权。NTT DoCoMo重挫2.56%。DoCoMo抢攻5G,今后5年传将砸1兆日元投资。信越化学狂飙8.01%。硅晶圆能见度达2年,信越化学调升财测、获利将连续第2年创历史新高。Clarion大涨4.0%,创逾18年来(2000年4月17日以来)收盘新高纪录。法国汽车零件供货商佛吉亚宣布,将对Clarion实施TOB,目标取得Clarion 100%股权。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜反弹收涨,收复112关口。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标拐头向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验111.800一线。上行方面,价格阻力位进一步指向112.900一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收跌,低位交投于1.13900一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格依旧考验1.13300一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位看向1.14300一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收跌,一度反弹至1.28516一线后回落走低。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标向下逼近超卖区。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验1.27000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力位看向1.28800一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜震荡收跌,最低触及1224一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价阻力位依旧指向1240一线。下行方面,金价关键支撑考验1210一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜回落收跌,全数回吐前一交易日升幅。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,油价支撑目标考验64.60一线。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向67.80一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜巨幅震荡收跌,盘中一度触及新低至24085一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标进入超卖区。后市来看,价格初步阻力位依旧考验25000关口。下行方面,价格支撑下看24300一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收跌,下破21000关口。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标超卖。后市来看,价格支撑进一步考验20700一线,上方阻力位看向21500一线。

 

29 10月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Monday, October 29, 2018

 

          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24747 2670.25 6893.00
-1.19% -1.73% -2.07%

Wall Street was back in aggressive sell-off mode on Friday, with major stock indices losing more than two percent following disappointing earnings announcement from Amazon and Google parent Alphabet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8% after earlier losing more than 2.0%, while the broad-based S&P 500 shed 2.4%. The tech-rich NASDAQ Index was down 2.1%. Both Amazon and Alphabet reported big jumps in quarterly profit but Amazon’s sales forecast for the critical holiday-shopping quarter disappointed analysts. Alphabet’s revenues in the just-finished quarter also lagged analyst forecasts. Amazon plummeted 9.2% while Alphabet slumped 4.8%. US government data, meanwhile, estimated third-quarter growth at a solid 3.5%, below the pace of the prior 4.2% quarter but better than expected. Friday’s weakness on Wall Street pushed the market back into the red where it has been for much of October, due in part to fears US corporate earnings have peaked following the one-time surge from the 2017 tax cut legislation.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

U.K Net Consumer Credit 09:30   1.1b

sep

U.K Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings 09:30   2.9b

sep

U.K Mortgage Approvals 09:30   66.4k

sep

U.S Personal Income 12:30 0.3% 0.3%

sep

U.S Personal Spending 12:30 0.4% 0.3%

sep

U.S Real Personal Spending 12:30   0.2%

sep

U.S Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) 12:30   2.2%

sep

U.S Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) 12:30   2.0%

sep

Japan Jobless Rate 23:30   2.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.19% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Intel Corporation, which rose 3.11% or 1.38 points to trade at 45.69 at the close. Meanwhile, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. added 0.65% or 0.49 points to end at 76.23 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 0.63% or 0.44 points to 70.40 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Home Depot Inc., which fell 3.82% or 6.84 points to trade at 172.23 at the close. Cisco Systems Inc. declined 2.68% or 1.22 points to end at 44.25 and American Express Company was down 2.27% or 2.35 points to 101.25.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 2.07% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which rose 66.20% to 7.180, China Recycling Energy Corp which was up 19.55% to settle at 1.5900 and MYnd Analytics Inc. which gained 24.09% to close at 1.70. The worst performers were Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 69.29% to 0.430 in late trade, Flex Ltd which lost 35.01% to settle at 7.09 and MoSys Inc. which was down 30.50% to 0.2648 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Crude oil futures posted their third consecutive weekly loss on Friday as the bulls that pushed oil prices to nearly four-year highs head into retreat. U.S crude ended this week down 2.2 percent and has now tumbled about 12 percent from its recent high of $86.74 on Oct. 3. Crude futures have gotten swept up in a wider stock market rout this month, with most of the losses for oil coinciding with a sell-off in equities. But the narrative driving oil prices has also flipped in recent weeks, and traders are closing out bullish bets on the commodity. At the start of October, oil prices were rising on signs that U.S. sanctions are shrinking Iran’s crude exports faster than anticipated, potentially leaving the world with a shortage of oil. The sanctions are expected to cut crude exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-biggest oil producer, by about 1 million barrels per day. But concerns about faltering demand and rising output from OPEC and Russia now have traders focused on potential oversupply.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices rose on Friday towards the three-month highs hit earlier this week as nervous investors retreated from stock markets and piled into the precious metal seen as a refuge from financial turmoil. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,235.16 an ounce having earlier this week hit $1,239.68, its highest since mid-July. It is on course for a fourth week of gains. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4 percent to $1,237.6 an ounce. Global stocks slid again on Friday and were set to post their worst weekly losing streak in more than five years. “The confusion in bond and stock markets is fuelling some interest in gold. If they continue to fall, that will give support to gold. You’ll then have trend buyers coming in and supporting the price. The bears are frightened of being caught on the wrong side. The liquidation of short positions on COMEX has the potential in the short term to drive gold up to between $1,260 and $1,270. Gold prices have gained more than 6 percent after falling to $1,159.96 an ounce in mid-August, their lowest since Jan. 2017. The release of U.S growth data earlier, which showed the economy slowed less than expected in the third quarter, had little lasting impact. Gold prices ticked down a little after the GDP report, but popped back up later. We are also seeing some more short-covering in the futures markets which is lifting prices. Investor flows into bullion, often considered a safe haven and store of value during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainties, can be seen by the rise in holdings of physically-backed exchange traded products. Holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, saw outflows of about 4.5 million ounces between late April and early October. Gold’s impressive performance of late, coming amid U.S. dollar strength, suggests that gold finally is behaving like a safe-haven asset.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures rose nearly 4 percent in Friday’s trading session and bounced back from multi-month lows a day earlier, buoyed by short-covering and indications that wheat was becoming more competitive globally. Corn futures rose on Friday, rebounding from Thursday’s two-week low, and soybeans rallied from a one-month low.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, October 26, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24794 24882 24413 24747 -100
S & P 500 SPM18 2677.75 2692.5 2627.25 2670.25 -14.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6880 6986 6734.5 6893 -28
Hang Seng HSH18 24956 25013 24522 24655 -237
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21485 21510 20960 21265 -75
FTSE 100 FTH18 6912 6953 6822.5 6912 -55.5
Gold GCJ18 1234.4 1245.7 1232.3 1235.7 1.4
Silver SIK18 1464.5 1478.5 1458 1469 4
Copper HGK18 275.25 275.35 272.75 274.05 -1.35
Crude Oil CLK18 66.93 67.84 66.16 67.53 0.6
Wheat WK18 486.75 506.25 486.75 504.75 17.75
Soybeans SK18 841.25 848.75 840.75 844.5 2.5
Corn CK18 361.5 369.5 361.5 367.25 6.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24010 24212 24479 24681 24948 25150 25417
SPM18 2568.92 2598.08 2634.17 2663.33 2699.42 2728.58 2764.67
NDM18 6504.83 6619.67 6756.33 6871.17 7007.83 7122.67 7259.33
HSH18 23956 24239 24447 24730 24938 25221 25429
NKH18 20430 20695 20980 21245 21530 21795 22080
FTH18 6708.17 6765.33 6838.67 6895.83 6969.17 7026.33 7099.67
GCJ18 1216.70 1224.50 1230.10 1237.90 1243.50 1251.30 1256.90
SIK18 1438.00 1448.00 1458.50 1468.50 1479.00 1489.00 1499.50
HGK18 270.15 271.45 272.75 274.05 275.35 276.65 277.95
CLK18 64.83 65.50 66.51 67.18 68.19 68.86 69.87
WK18 472.75 479.75 492.25 499.25 511.75 518.75 531.25
SK18 832.58 836.67 840.58 844.67 848.58 852.67 856.58
CK18 354.67 358.08 362.67 366.08 370.67 374.08 378.67

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-10-29

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周五(10月26日)转跌,仍运行在96关口上方。数据方面,美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值为3.5%,低于前值4.2%,但高于预期3.4%,符合美国总统特朗普对2018年度GDP增长3%的目标;第3季度个人消费支出年化季率初值为4.0%,高于前值3.8%。数据公布后,美元指数短线上涨,但GDP报告中的其他数据发布并不理想,因此很快地冲高后回落,最终美元指数报收96.42。

现货黄金周五亚市早盘开于1231.75美元/金衡盎司后金价下挫,录得日内低点1229.70美元/金衡盎司后转盘整,多空胶着。欧市金价反弹,震荡上行,触及高位后转跌。美市多头绝地反攻,金价一柱擎天,短线跳涨,录得日内高点1243.25美元/金衡盎司后,金价跳水,失去此前涨幅,触及低位后反弹,最终收盘1233.60美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周五收涨0.53美元,或0.79%,报67.55美元/桶。美元指数回落抵消股市下跌带来的利空影响,且美国将于11月实施第二轮伊朗制裁,令市场担心供应缺口扩大恐增加价的上行风险,但沙特承诺继续增产暂时缓解担忧。

美国股市周五下跌,因亚马逊和Alphabet最新公布的财报黯淡,冲击科技及网络类股下跌。道琼工业指数下跌296.24点,或1.19%,报24,688.31点,标普500指数跌46.88点,或1.73%,报2,658.69点;纳斯达克指数下挫151.12点,或2.06%,报7,167.21点。

个股方面,Alphabet GOOGL下跌1.80%,因上季营收逊于市场预期,引发市场担忧,且主管机关监管趋严、市场竞争益发激烈,恐令原本飞快的成长随之降温。Facebook FB下跌3.70%、Apple AAPL下跌1.59%、Netflix NFLX下挫4.17%。卫生清洁用品巨擘高露洁-棕榄公司 CL下挫6.64%,因上季每股盈余不如分析师原先预期。英特尔 INTC劲扬3.11%,因公布的财报、财测皆优于分析师预期,公司还调高了全年度的获利展望。而超威 AMD因日前公布了令人失望的财报与财测,使得股价下挫8.51%。

日本股市周五因连日来的下跌,吸引低接买盘涌入,提振日经指数以高位开盘,但中国上证等亚股普遍走跌,且市场也担忧本土公司的获利,冲击投资人的信心,拖累日经指数转跌,终场跌0.40%或84.13点,收21,184.60点。

个股方面,富士通下挫1.99%,因富士通传将携手爱立信,对于5G基地台的研发和销售进行合作。Canon暴跌5.62%,因单眼相机市场萎缩规模超乎预期,Canon下砍财务预测。机器人大厂Fanuc重挫2.16%、安川电机大跌4.86%、机器人关键零件「减速机」大厂Harmonic暴跌5.46%,因贸易战影响,日本机器人出货额首度陷入萎缩。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收跌,最低触及111.375一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格支撑进一步考验111.200一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标112关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收涨,一度触及日低1.13343一线后反弹。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验1.13400一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.14700一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,震荡交投于1.28一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标走平。后市看来,价格支撑依旧看向1.27000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标看向1.29100一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜震荡微升,最高探至1243一线后全数回吐日内升幅。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,金价阻力目标依旧指向1240一线。下行方面,金价关键支撑考验1210一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,最低探至66.18一线后反弹走高。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市来看,油价支撑目标考验66.40一线。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向68.70一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜微幅收跌,盘中一度触及新低至24413一线后反弹收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标依旧考验25000关口。下行方面,价格支撑下看24500一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收跌,最低触及20790一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标超卖。后市来看,价格初步支撑依旧考验21000一线,上方阻力位看向22200一线。

 

26 10月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, October 25, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24615 2665.00 6837.50
-2.41% -3.09% -4.43%

The sell-off in U.S. stocks accelerated, wiping out gains for the year in both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as mixed corporate earnings and weak housing data fueled anxiety that rising prices will crimp economic growth. A slew of results this week is expected to throw spotlight on the risk of a slowdown in China, the world’s No. 2 economy, spilling beyond its borders and eating into U.S corporate profits. Chipmakers, already struggling with oversupply and reliant on China for a significant portion of profit, dropped after Texas Instruments forecast weak current quarter and STMicroelectronics signaled slowing demand in China. The Dow was down 251.89 points, or 2.41 percent, the S&P 500 .SPX was down 32.76points, or 3.09 percent and the NASDAQ was down 119.68 points, or 4.43 percent yesterday. While earnings from S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased about 22 percent in the third quarter, 2018 is seen as a peak for the profit cycle.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

German GfK Consumer Confidence 06:00 10.5 10.6

oct

German IFO Business Climate 08:00 103.1 103.7

oct

European Central Bank Rate Decision 11:45 0.00% 0.00%

oct

ECB Marginal Lending Facility 11:45 0.25% 0.25%

sep

U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance 12:30 -$75.1b -$75.8b

sep

U.S Durable Goods Orders 12:30 -1.5% 4.4%

oct

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 213k 210k

oct

U.S Continuing Claims 12:30 1660k 1640k

sep

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 14:00   -2.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.41% to hit a new 3-months low. The best performers of the session were Procter & Gamble Company, which rose 2.64% or 2.30 points to trade at 89.46 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 1.31% or 4.60 points to end at 354.65 and Coca-Cola Company was up 0.80% or 0.37 points to 46.73 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were United Technologies Corporation, which fell 6.11% or 7.95 points to trade at 122.07 at the close. Caterpillar Inc. declined 5.58% or 6.64 points to end at 112.34 and Microsoft Corporation was down 5.35% or 5.78 points to 102.32.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 4.43%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were National American University which rose 115.69%, Clementia Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was up 40.23% to settle at 14.50 and XpresSpa Group Inc. which gained 28.90% to close at 0.199. The worst performers were Ameri Holdings Inc. which was down 60.69% to 0.41 in late trade, Travelzoo Inc. which lost 31.33% to settle at 8.00 and Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which was down 28.42% to 4.610 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices yesterday clawed back some of their hefty losses from the day before as the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran came back into focus. U.S crude futures were at $66.58 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Tuesday that despite expected supply disruptions from U.S sanctions against Iran that kick in from Nov. 4, Saudi Arabia would step up to meet any demand that materializes to ensure customers are satisfied. In China, Iran’s biggest oil buyer, the Bank of Kunlun is set to stop handling payments from the Islamic Republic next month, appearing to bow to U.S pressure. Kunlun is controlled by the financial arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp and is the main official channel for money flows between China and Iran. With financial ties between the two countries effectively severed from November, Chinese oil firms will need to find alternatives to Iran’s crude. China took in 800,000 barrels per day from Iran in August.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eased yesterday as the dollar firmed and speculators locked in profits from a more than three-month peak hit in the previous session. Losses were modest, however, as gold got support from investors looking for insurance from potential further downside in stock markets after five days in the red. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,228.06 an ounce. U.S gold futures were down 0.4 percent at $1,231.50 an ounce. On Tuesday, the precious metal touched its highest since July 17 at $1,239.68 as investors took cover from a stock selloff. The dollar index versus a basket of currencies rebounded 0.4 percent and hit its highest since Aug. 17 at 96.53. The most important reason is a little bit of a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which has a negative effect on gold. On top of that, following a strong performance we had in gold in the past few days, this may be a little bit of profit taking, although this should not be the end of the recovery in gold. Gold prices have gained more than 6 percent after falling to $1,159.96 an ounce in mid-August, their lowest since January last year. After reaching a three-month high, gold is taking a breath but the environment remains positive for bullion, with growing investor interest for the precious metal among those betting on further corrections of stock markets increases. World stocks steadied after falling for five straight days, pressured by earnings disappointment, concerns over Italy’s budget and worries that world economic growth is losing steam. Gold is focusing on the risk aversion creeping into the market, especially reflected in the weakness seen in global stock markets. Dollar-denominated gold is often used as an alternative investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. If there is a correction, then $1,210 is a good support zone; breaching this support may lead gold to fall further towards $1,195, which is less likely in the current scenario. Silver was down 0.5 percent at $14.66 an ounce, while platinum slid 0.9 percent to $823 an ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures fell 2 percent yesterday, dropping below $5 a bushel for the first time in nearly six weeks as analysts cited technical selling mixed with worries about U.S export prospects.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25239 25335 24508 24615 -630
S & P 500 SPM18 2745 2749.75 2652.25 2665 -81.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7135.75 7174 6785.5 6837.5 -303.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25391 25649 25173 25208 -122
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22145 22205 21885 22045 115
FTSE 100 FTH18 6977.5 7022.5 6863.5 6867 -109.5
Gold GCJ18 1233.7 1237.2 1228.1 1236.3 3.4
Silver SIK18 1476.5 1482 1465 1469 -5.5
Copper HGK18 276.15 280.35 274.3 274.55 -1.45
Crude Oil CLK18 66.12 67.68 66.01 66.36 0.31
Wheat WK18 509.75 510.25 496.5 499 -9.75
Soybeans SK18 855.5 856.5 849.75 850.25 -6.25
Corn CK18 369 369 367.5 367.75 -2

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 23477 23992 24304 24819 25131 25646 25958
SPM18 2530.75 2591.50 2628.25 2689.00 2725.75 2786.50 2823.25
NDM18 6302.17 6543.83 6690.67 6932.33 7079.17 7320.83 7467.67
HSH18 24562 24867 25038 25343 25514 25819 25990
NKH18 21565 21725 21885 22045 22205 22365 22525
FTH18 6653.83 6758.67 6812.83 6917.67 6971.83 7076.67 7130.83
GCJ18 1221.43 1224.77 1230.53 1233.87 1239.63 1242.97 1248.73
SIK18 1445.00 1455.00 1462.00 1472.00 1479.00 1489.00 1496.00
HGK18 266.40 270.35 272.45 276.40 278.50 282.45 284.55
CLK18 64.02 65.01 65.69 66.68 67.36 68.35 69.03
WK18 479.83 488.17 493.58 501.92 507.33 515.67 521.08
SK18 841.08 845.42 847.83 852.17 854.58 858.92 861.33
CK18 365.67 366.58 367.17 368.08 368.67 369.58 370.17

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-10-26

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周四(10月25日)持续上涨,因德拉基讲话拖累欧镑齐跌,加上经济数据助美元指数持续攀升,盘中最高触及96.75。数据方面,虽然美国公布的上周初请失业金人数为21.5万人,高于前值的21万人,但10月13日当周续请失业金人数创四十五年以来新低,表明就业市场情况正在持续收紧。而9月成屋签约销售指数月率为0.5%,高于前值的-1.8%,显示房地产市场有所回暖。此外,欧元区ECB公布利率决定不变,最终美元指数报收于96.60。

现货黄金周四收跌,亚市早盘开于1233.10美元/金衡盎司后金价震荡上攻,录得日内高点1238.70美元/金衡盎司后回落。欧市金价跳水,直线下坠之后转盘整,多空激战。美市金价震荡延续,空方发力,金价再次跳水,录得日内低点1227.85美元/金衡盎司后反弹,金价再度震荡上行,终收于1231.75美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周四收涨0.62美元,或0.93%,报67.02美元/桶。因OPEC暗示或再度减产令原油多头信心大振,同时股市反弹也有效缓和了近期的紧张情绪,不过美元走高依然限制着油价的上行空间。

美国股市周四收盘跳升,纳斯达克指数录得3月以来的最大单日百分比涨幅,因微软发布乐观业绩,推动科技股反弹,投资者抢购超卖股票。道琼工业指数收涨401.13点,或1.63%,至24,984.55点;标普500指数收涨49.47点,或1.86%,至2,705.57点;纳斯达克指数收涨209.94点,或2.95%,至7,318.34点。

个股方面,微软MSFT涨5.98%,该公司公布的季度营收和获利均超过分析师的普遍预期。福特汽车F上涨9.90%,因其财报提升了第四季业绩强劲的希望,带动非必需消费品板块上涨。电动汽车生产商特斯拉TSLA收盘大涨9.14%,该公司宣布收获了公司历史上的最大季度盈利。康卡斯特CMCSA收高5.04%,该公司宣布第三季度新增36.3万名互联网用户,并宣布旗下NBCUniversal的营收意外强劲增长。推特TWTR大涨15.47%,该公司宣布第三财季盈利与营收均超出预期,但每月活跃用户数量减少了9%,降幅超出分析师预期。奥驰亚MO收高1.36%,该公司宣布营收与盈利超出预期,但为了解决未成年人吸烟问题,公司拟将某些电子香烟产品下市。

日本股市周四因美股前日(10月24日)暴跌,引发市场恐慌,拖累日经指数开盘后随即跳空大跌,且跌幅一路扩大,终场跌3.72%或822.45点,收21,268.73点。

个股方面,夏普崩跌9.04%,因台风打乱物流,液晶面板/电子零件出口一度停滞、采购延迟,夏普下砍今年度上半年营收目标。富士胶卷大跌4.51%,市场竞争激烈,导致价格下滑,富士胶卷中国车载相机用镜头厂传出售给欧菲。连接器厂SMK崩跌10.21%,因同业竞争激烈,智慧手机用连接器订单低迷,SMK下砍财测、本业将陷亏损。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜震荡收涨,一度触及日低至111.807一线后反弹。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格依旧考验关键支撑112.000关口,跌破则进一步下看111.800一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标112.900一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜延续收跌,一度反弹至1.14314一线后承压回落。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下逼近超卖区。后市看来,价格支撑进一步考验1.13300一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.14700一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜延续收跌,最低探至1.27965一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格支撑进一步看向1.27000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标看向1.29100一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜震荡微跌,窄幅交投于1232一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱持平,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价阻力目标依旧指向1240一线。下行方面,金价关键支撑考验1210一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,最高触及67.63一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,油价支撑目标考验65.00一线。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向68.70一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜反弹收涨,一度上破25000关口未果。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标依旧考验25000关口。下行方面,价格支撑下看24500一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收涨,一度触及新低至21190一线后反弹。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标位于超卖区附近。后市来看,价格初步支撑依旧考验21200一线,上方阻力位看向22200一线。

 

25 10月 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Thursday, October 25, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24615 2665.00 6837.50
-2.41% -3.09% -4.43%

The sell-off in U.S. stocks accelerated, wiping out gains for the year in both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as mixed corporate earnings and weak housing data fueled anxiety that rising prices will crimp economic growth. A slew of results this week is expected to throw spotlight on the risk of a slowdown in China, the world’s No. 2 economy, spilling beyond its borders and eating into U.S corporate profits. Chipmakers, already struggling with oversupply and reliant on China for a significant portion of profit, dropped after Texas Instruments forecast weak current quarter and STMicroelectronics signaled slowing demand in China. The Dow was down 251.89 points, or 2.41 percent, the S&P 500 .SPX was down 32.76points, or 3.09 percent and the NASDAQ was down 119.68 points, or 4.43 percent yesterday. While earnings from S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased about 22 percent in the third quarter, 2018 is seen as a peak for the profit cycle.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

German GfK Consumer Confidence 06:00 10.5 10.6

oct

German IFO Business Climate 08:00 103.1 103.7

oct

European Central Bank Rate Decision 11:45 0.00% 0.00%

oct

ECB Marginal Lending Facility 11:45 0.25% 0.25%

sep

U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance 12:30 -$75.1b -$75.8b

sep

U.S Durable Goods Orders 12:30 -1.5% 4.4%

oct

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 213k 210k

oct

U.S Continuing Claims 12:30 1660k 1640k

sep

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 14:00   -2.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.41% to hit a new 3-months low. The best performers of the session were Procter & Gamble Company, which rose 2.64% or 2.30 points to trade at 89.46 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 1.31% or 4.60 points to end at 354.65 and Coca-Cola Company was up 0.80% or 0.37 points to 46.73 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were United Technologies Corporation, which fell 6.11% or 7.95 points to trade at 122.07 at the close. Caterpillar Inc. declined 5.58% or 6.64 points to end at 112.34 and Microsoft Corporation was down 5.35% or 5.78 points to 102.32.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 4.43%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were National American University which rose 115.69%, Clementia Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was up 40.23% to settle at 14.50 and XpresSpa Group Inc. which gained 28.90% to close at 0.199. The worst performers were Ameri Holdings Inc. which was down 60.69% to 0.41 in late trade, Travelzoo Inc. which lost 31.33% to settle at 8.00 and Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which was down 28.42% to 4.610 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices yesterday clawed back some of their hefty losses from the day before as the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran came back into focus. U.S crude futures were at $66.58 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Tuesday that despite expected supply disruptions from U.S sanctions against Iran that kick in from Nov. 4, Saudi Arabia would step up to meet any demand that materializes to ensure customers are satisfied. In China, Iran’s biggest oil buyer, the Bank of Kunlun is set to stop handling payments from the Islamic Republic next month, appearing to bow to U.S pressure. Kunlun is controlled by the financial arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp and is the main official channel for money flows between China and Iran. With financial ties between the two countries effectively severed from November, Chinese oil firms will need to find alternatives to Iran’s crude. China took in 800,000 barrels per day from Iran in August.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eased yesterday as the dollar firmed and speculators locked in profits from a more than three-month peak hit in the previous session. Losses were modest, however, as gold got support from investors looking for insurance from potential further downside in stock markets after five days in the red. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,228.06 an ounce. U.S gold futures were down 0.4 percent at $1,231.50 an ounce. On Tuesday, the precious metal touched its highest since July 17 at $1,239.68 as investors took cover from a stock selloff. The dollar index versus a basket of currencies rebounded 0.4 percent and hit its highest since Aug. 17 at 96.53. The most important reason is a little bit of a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which has a negative effect on gold. On top of that, following a strong performance we had in gold in the past few days, this may be a little bit of profit taking, although this should not be the end of the recovery in gold. Gold prices have gained more than 6 percent after falling to $1,159.96 an ounce in mid-August, their lowest since January last year. After reaching a three-month high, gold is taking a breath but the environment remains positive for bullion, with growing investor interest for the precious metal among those betting on further corrections of stock markets increases. World stocks steadied after falling for five straight days, pressured by earnings disappointment, concerns over Italy’s budget and worries that world economic growth is losing steam. Gold is focusing on the risk aversion creeping into the market, especially reflected in the weakness seen in global stock markets. Dollar-denominated gold is often used as an alternative investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. If there is a correction, then $1,210 is a good support zone; breaching this support may lead gold to fall further towards $1,195, which is less likely in the current scenario. Silver was down 0.5 percent at $14.66 an ounce, while platinum slid 0.9 percent to $823 an ounce.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures fell 2 percent yesterday, dropping below $5 a bushel for the first time in nearly six weeks as analysts cited technical selling mixed with worries about U.S export prospects.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25239 25335 24508 24615 -630
S & P 500 SPM18 2745 2749.75 2652.25 2665 -81.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7135.75 7174 6785.5 6837.5 -303.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25391 25649 25173 25208 -122
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22145 22205 21885 22045 115
FTSE 100 FTH18 6977.5 7022.5 6863.5 6867 -109.5
Gold GCJ18 1233.7 1237.2 1228.1 1236.3 3.4
Silver SIK18 1476.5 1482 1465 1469 -5.5
Copper HGK18 276.15 280.35 274.3 274.55 -1.45
Crude Oil CLK18 66.12 67.68 66.01 66.36 0.31
Wheat WK18 509.75 510.25 496.5 499 -9.75
Soybeans SK18 855.5 856.5 849.75 850.25 -6.25
Corn CK18 369 369 367.5 367.75 -2

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 23477 23992 24304 24819 25131 25646 25958
SPM18 2530.75 2591.50 2628.25 2689.00 2725.75 2786.50 2823.25
NDM18 6302.17 6543.83 6690.67 6932.33 7079.17 7320.83 7467.67
HSH18 24562 24867 25038 25343 25514 25819 25990
NKH18 21565 21725 21885 22045 22205 22365 22525
FTH18 6653.83 6758.67 6812.83 6917.67 6971.83 7076.67 7130.83
GCJ18 1221.43 1224.77 1230.53 1233.87 1239.63 1242.97 1248.73
SIK18 1445.00 1455.00 1462.00 1472.00 1479.00 1489.00 1496.00
HGK18 266.40 270.35 272.45 276.40 278.50 282.45 284.55
CLK18 64.02 65.01 65.69 66.68 67.36 68.35 69.03
WK18 479.83 488.17 493.58 501.92 507.33 515.67 521.08
SK18 841.08 845.42 847.83 852.17 854.58 858.92 861.33
CK18 365.67 366.58 367.17 368.08 368.67 369.58 370.17

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)     

                                                              

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-10-25

 

   
Market Summary
美元指数周三(10月24日)强势反弹,盘中最高触及96.54,但一则消息令多头锐气受挫。因加拿大央行宣布加息25个基点,并从声明中删除了有关“渐进”的措辞,暗示12月份有可能会再次加息。决议公布之后,美元/加元重挫逾百点至1.30关口下方。数据方面,美国日内公布的9月新屋销售销售为55.3万户,创2016年12月以来新低,低于预期和前值,新屋销售环比连降四个月。而美国10月Markit服务业PMI初值为54.7,以及美国10月Markit制造业PMI初值为55.9,皆高于前值与预期,Markit首席经济学家威廉姆森称PMI数据显示美国经济再度获得增长势头,主要PMI表现与经济增速大体相符,预计下一季度将继续迎来稳健的增长,最终美元指数报收于96.43。

现货黄金周三收涨,亚市早盘开于1230.20美元/金衡盎司后金价小幅上涨,之后转盘整。欧市金价转跌,录得日内低点1225.35美元/金衡盎司后反弹,金价震荡上行。美市多头加大上攻力度,录得日内高点1233.40美元/金衡盎司后转盘整,终收于1233.10美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周三收涨0.33美元,或0.50%,报66.40美元/桶。美国原油库存报告好坏参半,但股市下跌以及美元强势走高依然令油价承压。此外,沙特失踪记者事件令其与美国关系迅速恶化,市场担心可能会引发经济制裁,这令中东地区的原油供应面临威胁。

美国股市周三收盘重挫,道指和标普500指数悉数回吐年内涨幅,因芯片生产商公布的财测令人失望,且新屋销售数据疲弱,引发对经济和企业获利增长的担忧。道琼工业指数收跌608.01点,或2.41%,至24,583.42点;标普500指数收跌84.59点,或3.09%,至2,656.10点;纳斯达克指数下跌329.14点,或4.43%,至7,108.40点。

个股方面,德州仪器TXN重挫8.22%及AT&T T重挫8.08%,因受到财报不佳影响重挫,而波音BA则因财报优于预期,带动道琼早盘上扬,该公司调高全年获利与销售前瞻指引,促使股价收涨1.31%。Netflix NFLX因为开支不断增加、举债引发市场疑虑,加上苹果、亚马逊等各大企业纷纷抢食影音串流市场,拖累该公司股价重跌9.40%。

日本股市周三收涨,因前日(10月23日)暴跌,吸引低接买盘涌入,且中国上证指数今日走扬,改善投资人信心,提振日经指数上涨,最终收涨0.37%或80.40点,收22,091.18点。

个股方面,日本电产Nidec劲扬1.60%,因应贸易战,Nidec车用/家电用零件部分生产将从中国转移至墨西哥。日本工具机厂走跌,其中Makino重挫1.88%、Okuma下跌0.70%、DMG森精机重挫2.37%,因日本9月来自中国的工具机订单额掉2成。自行车零组件巨擘Shimano下跌1.04%,因供应不足,Shimano下砍今年度营收目标。SUMCO则狂泻10.80%,因硅晶圆厂商扩产超预期,恐陷入供应过剩,SUMCO评等遭降、目标价被大砍。夏普涨0.38%、Sony涨0.39%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续回落,一度反弹至112.728一线后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向下延伸。后市看来,价格依旧考验关键支撑112.000关口,跌破则进一步下看111.700一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标112.800一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜大幅收跌,刷新两个月低位至1.13780一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下逼近超卖区。后市看来,价格支撑进一步考验1.13400一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.14900一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜大幅收跌,最低探至1.28659一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格支撑下看1.28000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力目标看向1.29700一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收涨,高位交投于1233一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱温和,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市来看,金价阻力目标依旧指向1240一线。下行方面,金价关键支撑考验1210一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收升,一度反弹至67.70一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,油价支撑目标考验64.70一线。上行方面,油价初步阻力位看向67.40一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜大幅跳水,最低探至24508一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标超卖。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标考验25000关口。下行方面,价格支撑下看前低24100一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收跌,刷新新低至21340一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下逼近超卖区。后市来看,价格初步支撑依旧考验21100一线,上方阻力位看向22200一线。

 

24 10月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 24, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Yen strengthened yesterday as a slew of geopolitical risk factors bolstered safe haven demand

·      The euro fell after the European Commission rejected Italy’s 2019 budget

·      The British Pound traded up in the European session before retracing those gains later in the day

·      The Canadian dollar traded sideways within a well-defined range yesterday

The U.S Dollar fell yesterday after Wall Street opened lower, spurring a risk-off move that benefited the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc against the greenback. The stock market has everyone’s attention. The dollar/yen is moved tick-to-tick with stocks. Although the dollar is also considered a safe-haven currency, weakness in U.S. markets will nevertheless disadvantage the greenback against other safe havens. Markets are starting to wonder if the good times generated from Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation are in the rear view mirror and what’s ahead is fallout from protectionist policies, and that has started to eat into corporate earnings. The euro fell after the European Commission rejected Italy’s 2019 budget and said it will ask Rome to present a new document within three weeks, according to reports from Italian news agency AGI, citing EU sources. The dispute over Italy’s spending plans and doubts about the leadership of Britain’s prime minister, who is mired in a stalemate over Brexit, has investors focusing on the likelihood of further political turmoil in Europe. Worries about Italy’s spending have bred some doubt about the European Central Bank’s plan to raise interest rates next summer, and that too has hurt the euro. Britain’s pound traded up in the European session before retracing those gains after falling precipitously on Monday over fears that the Northern Ireland border issue and disagreements within Britain’s ruling Conservatives over Brexit could cause Prime Minister Theresa May to face a serious leadership challenge. The yen strengthened yesterday as a slew of geopolitical risk factors bolstered safe haven demand for the Japanese currency, while the dollar dipped against a currency basket. A rally in Chinese equities reversed overnight, pulling down European stocks and U.S futures amid renewed worries over a host of economic and geopolitical issues. Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war and political uncertainty in Europe also weighed. The Japanese currency is often sought by investors for its relative safety during periods of economic or geopolitical uncertainty.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
07:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (OCT) Medium   53.4 53.7
07:30 Markit Germany Services PMI (OCT) Medium   55.5 55.9
08:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (OCT) Medium   53 53.2
08:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (OCT) Medium   54.5 54.7
08:30 U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase (SEP) Medium   39000 39402
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 19) Medium     -7.1%
13:00 U.S House Price Index (MoM) (AUG) Medium   0.3% 0.2%
13:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (OCT) Medium   55.5 55.6
13:45 Markit US Services PMI (OCT) Medium   54 53.5
14:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision (OCT 24) High   1.75% 1.50%
14:00 U.S New Home Sales (MoM) (SEP) Medium   -0.6% 3.5%
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (OCT 19) Medium   3000k 6490k
18:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Medium      
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance (SEP) Medium   -1365m -1484m

 

Euro

The single currency ended yesterday’s session slightly higher. Euro zone consumer sentiment rose slightly in October, against expectations of a decline, according to figures released yesterday. The European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale increased to -2.7 points in October from -2.9 points in September. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1438 and a high of 1.1492 before closing the day around 1.1469 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair came under a renewed selling pressure in the early trading hours yesterday and fell to a fresh five-day low before recovering slightly. With the flight-to-safety becoming the primary driver of the market action yesterday, the JPY stays strong against its peers. The US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in a tight range Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.93 and a high of 112.82 before closing the day around 112.42 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rallied to the top of the leaderboard yesterday as the pendulum swung back in favor of a Brexit deal being struck by year-end. The British Pound remains highly attuned to sentiment on Brexit talks, and news of progress inevitably has seen the currency attract a bid. The market is again showing Brexit deal optimism. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2935 and a high of 1.3042 before closing the day at 1.2928 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower earlier yesterday as oil and stock prices declined, although the loonie traded in a narrow range ahead of a Bank of Canada interest rate decision today. Canada runs a current account deficit and exports many commodities, including oil, so its economy could be hurt if the global flow of trade or capital slows. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3073 and a high of 1.3120 before closing the day at 1.3081 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has endured a soft start to the week after the government lost a one-seat majority in parliament and as the U.S criticized China’s response to efforts at de-escalating the so called trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Australia’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives Saturday. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7053 and a high of 0.7088 before closing the day at 0.7086 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.27%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.20%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.29%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.01%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 23, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14644 1.14923 1.14381 1.14697 0.0007
USD/JPY 112.807 112.822 111.934 112.424 -0.3800
GBP/USD 1.29589 1.30425 1.29352 1.29822 0.0018
USD/CHF 0.99577 0.99687 0.9936 0.9947 -0.0012
USD/CAD 1.30988 1.312 1.30737 1.30817 -0.0016
EUR/JPY 129.341 129.357 128.189 128.966 -0.3510
GBP/JPY 146.227 146.38 145.265 145.967 -0.2890
CHF/JPY 113.247 113.275 112.454 112.991 -0.2440
AUD/JPY 79.585 79.884 79.01 79.637 -0.2290
EUR/GBP 0.88408 0.88457 0.87964 0.88338 -0.0005
EUR/CHF 1.14171 1.14278 1.1395 1.14103 -0.0006
GBP/CHF 1.29083 1.29801 1.28912 1.29144 0.0001

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1387 1.1413 1.1441 1.1467 1.1495 1.1521 1.1550
USD/JPY 111.08 111.51 111.96 112.39 112.85 113.28 113.74
GBP/USD 1.2823 1.2879 1.2931 1.2987 1.3038 1.3094 1.3145
USD/CHF 0.9900 0.9918 0.9932 0.9951 0.9965 0.9983 0.9998
USD/CAD 1.3017 1.3046 1.3064 1.3092 1.3110 1.3138 1.3156
EUR/JPY 127.15 127.67 128.32 128.84 129.49 130.01 130.65
GBP/JPY 144.25 144.76 145.36 145.87 146.48 146.99 147.59
CHF/JPY 111.72 112.09 112.54 112.91 113.36 113.73 114.18
AUD/JPY 78.26 78.64 79.14 79.51 80.01 80.38 80.88
EUR/GBP 0.8756 0.8776 0.8805 0.8825 0.8854 0.8875 0.8904
EUR/CHF 1.1361 1.1378 1.1394 1.1411 1.1427 1.1444 1.1460
GBP/CHF 1.2788 1.2840 1.2877 1.2929 1.2966 1.3017 1.3055

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

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