市場報告                     2018-08-27

Market Summary
周五(8月24日)美元指数下跌,因美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示,他预计利率将缓慢而稳定地继续下去,央行希望在促进增长和控制过度行为之间找到正确的方法。鲍威尔表示没有迹象表明通胀将加速升至2%上方,正是这句话令美元指数多头不寒而栗。鲍威尔话音刚落,美元指数短线下跌约30点并逼近95关口,终收于95.17。

现货黄金周五收涨,亚市早盘开于1185.10美元/金衡盎司后即下挫,金价震荡下行,录得日内低点1182.90美元/金衡盎司。欧市金价反弹,多头转上攻,金价攀升。美市盘中出现大力拉升,金价直线上扬,盘中连破两关,录得日内高点1208.20美元/金衡盎司后回落,金价转跌后再转盘整,终收于1205.20美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周五收涨0.83美元,或1.22%,报68.70美元/桶。因美国石油活跃钻井数大幅下降为油价带来支撑,同时伊朗制裁引发的供应面忧虑也抵消了中美贸易不确定性增加的利空影响。

美国股市周五收高,其中基础材料、科技、石油和天然气等上涨的板块带领股指走高。道琼工业股指数上涨133.37点,或0.52%,至25,790.35点;标准普尔500指数上升17.71点,或0.62%,至2,874.69点;纳斯达克指数上升67.52点,或0.86%,至7,945.98点。

个股方面,陶氏杜邦公司DWDP,上涨1.61%;维萨卡公司V上涨了1.48%;英特尔公司INTC涨1.45%。欧特克公司ADSK,上涨15.33%;美国超威公司AMD收盘时涨7.58%;奈飞公司NFLX上升5.79%。

日本股市周五升至两周高位,受日元贬值及制药股涨势提振。此前一篇报导称制药商卫材将中期获利目标提前一年,激励制药股上涨。日经指数收涨0.9%,至22,601.77点。

个股方面,制造商卫材扬升2.7%,日本经济新闻报导称,截至2020年3月底的财年,该公司的营业利润料将达到1,020亿日元(约9.23亿美元),中期业务目标提前一年实现。其他制药类股也上涨,中外制药跳涨2.4%;第一三共上涨2.8%。纸浆和纸品生产商类股也吸引到买盘,上涨2.7%,其中日本制纸升1.7%。但日本服装连锁店岛村因公司8月同店销售同比下降5.6%,及台风来袭影响消费者购物,最终收盘大跌3.7%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜震荡收低,持稳111关口上方。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减殆尽,双线金叉,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格支撑目标考验111关口。上行方面,价格初步阻力位于111.600一线,突破则进一步指向112.200一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜反弹收涨,收复 1.16一线失地。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标向上。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.14700一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力看向1.17200一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,交投于1.28400一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验1.28000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.29500一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜大幅收涨,最高探至1208一线,重回1200关口上方。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标大幅向上。后市来看,金价阻力目标进一步指向1211一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑目标下看1200关口。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,最高触及69.29一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于66.70一线。上行方面,油价关键阻力位于69关口。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收涨,高位交投于25800一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格关键阻力目标指向26000一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25600一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收涨,最高探至22630一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22360一线,上方阻力位看向22800一线。

 

 

24 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

FOREX Newsletter

August 24, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The main focus will be the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole today

·      There was no specific driver for the slide in the British pound

·      Economic activity in the Eurozone expanded at a faster pace in August according to the PMIs

·      Political troubles in Australia sent the Australian dollar tumbling more than 1%

The U.S Dollar is back but the Australian Dollar is in trouble. After falling in the front of the week, the greenback regained momentum yesterday to trade higher against all of the major currencies. Nothing came out of trade talks between the U.S. and China – both parties moved ahead with tariffs on $16B worth of goods so the focus shifts to the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole. It’s a 3-day meeting that begins tonight and all of the major speeches will be made today starting with Jerome Powell’s remarks. This will be his first symposium as Fed Chair. We know BoC Governor Poloz will be attending but BoJ Governor Kuroda will be skipping the event and its not clear whether BoE Governor Carney, who did not attend last year will appear at the event. Earlier this week, President Trump sent the Dollar tumbling when he lamented about Fed tightening. It is not the first time that we’ve heard the President criticize his Fed Chief and it won’t be his last. However, the best way for Powell to handle Trump’s comments is to ignore them. There’s no winning in going against his boss or agreeing with him which would suggest that the central bank has lost its independence. So the only response is no response at all. The Fed may slow down tightening, but it won’t be because of Presidential pressure. On the other hand, Powell could have a lot to say about trade and the global economic outlook which is slowing. According to the FOMC minutes, even before Jackson Hole, policymakers were worried about trade, housing, and emerging markets. If Powell suggests that this could affect the U.S’ economy outlook, the Dollar could take a hit. Investors will be looking for any indication of a possible slowing of Fed tightening. Not only could it be necessary because of slower growth but the yield curve is at risk of inverting which is troubling for many businesses and policymakers. Meanwhile, political troubles in Australia sent the Australian Dollar tumbling more than 1%. Prime Minister Turnbull faces another leadership challenge tonight or over the weekend after his own party pulled their support. Adding fuel to the fire was the Australian government’s decision to ban Chinese maker Huawei from participating in the build-out of the 5G infrastructure on security grounds. The news is sure to further aggravate the already shaky Sino-Australian relations and could be a source of constant pressure on Aussie. The pair dropped below the .7300 figure and appears poised for a test of .7200. The recovery in the U.S. dollar also sent euro and sterling lower but the euro was the day’s most resilient currency thanks to comments from BUBA President Jens Weidmann and economic data.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German Domestic Demand (2Q) Low   0.6% 0.4%
06:00 German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q) Medium   2.3% 2.3%
08:30 U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUL) Medium   40500 40541
12:30 U.S Durable Goods Orders (JUL) High   -0.5% 0.8%
12:30 U.S Durables Ex Transportation (JUL) Medium   0.5% 0.2%
14:00 U.S Fed Hosts Annual Jackson Hole Central Banking Symposium High      
14:00 U.S Powell to Discuss Economy and Monetary Policy at Jackson Hole High      
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (AUG 24) Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency turned lower against the US Dollar Thursday after ISH Markit surveys revealed a further slowdown in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector during August, suggesting the continental economy is yet to rebound from the slowdown seen at the start of the year. IHS Markit’s Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 in August. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1528 and a high of 1.1598 before closing the day around 1.1537 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair has posted broad gains in yesterday’s session. In the U.S, employment claims edged lower to 210 thousand, beating the estimate of 215 thousand. New Home Sales fell to 627 thousand, well short of the estimate of 641 thousand. This was the second housing report in as many days to miss expectations.  Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.50 and a high of 111.29 before closing the day around 111.27 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound dropped against the dollar and euro in yesterday’s trading session, after Brexit secretary Dominic Raab unveiled the first of his department’s contingency plans for a no-deal exit from the EU. As it has been stated by European officials that the Brexit talks are heading into their final chapter. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2803 and a high of 1.2917 before closing the day at 1.2811 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened, pulling back from a two-week high the day before, as the greenback rose broadly ahead of a speech today by Fed Chairman. The U.S dollar snapped a five-day losing streak, as a new round of U.S-Chinese punitive trade tariffs boosted the greenback and the annual Federal Reserve conference began in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2990 and a high of 1.3096 before closing the day at 1.3079 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell sharply as leadership jostling reached fever pitch in yesterday’s session, undermining confidence in the government and Australian assets in the eyes of global investors. Markets are used to political turmoil and dysfunction in Australia, but certain developments may have prompted a knee-jerk reaction yesterday, Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7238 and a high of 0.7354 before closing the day at 0.7247 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.13%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.16%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.18%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.27%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.51%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 23, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15955 1.15981 1.15285 1.15378 -0.0061
USD/JPY 110.556 111.298 110.5 111.27 0.7010
GBP/USD 1.29078 1.29174 1.2803 1.28111 -0.0103
USD/CHF 0.98302 0.98647 0.98202 0.98599 0.0028
USD/CAD 1.29926 1.30969 1.29905 1.30793 0.0079
EUR/JPY 128.209 128.744 127.894 128.392 0.1680
GBP/JPY 142.708 142.986 142.398 142.55 -0.2270
CHF/JPY 112.423 112.939 112.354 112.82 0.3430
AUD/JPY 81.227 81.31 80.54 80.626 -0.6470
EUR/GBP 0.8982 0.90216 0.89682 0.90059 0.0024
EUR/CHF 1.14008 1.14057 1.13626 1.13785 -0.0024
GBP/CHF 1.26896 1.26967 1.26228 1.26308 -0.0065

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1442 1.1485 1.1512 1.1555 1.1581 1.1624 1.1651
USD/JPY 109.95 110.22 110.75 111.02 111.55 111.82 112.34
GBP/USD 1.2656 1.2729 1.2770 1.2844 1.2885 1.2958 1.2999
USD/CHF 0.9787 0.9804 0.9832 0.9848 0.9876 0.9893 0.9921
USD/CAD 1.2908 1.2949 1.3014 1.3056 1.3121 1.3162 1.3227
EUR/JPY 127.09 127.49 127.94 128.34 128.79 129.19 129.64
GBP/JPY 141.72 142.06 142.30 142.64 142.89 143.23 143.48
CHF/JPY 111.88 112.12 112.47 112.70 113.05 113.29 113.64
AUD/JPY 79.57 80.06 80.34 80.83 81.11 81.60 81.88
EUR/GBP 0.8922 0.8945 0.8976 0.8999 0.9029 0.9052 0.9082
EUR/CHF 1.1316 1.1339 1.1359 1.1382 1.1402 1.1425 1.1445
GBP/CHF 1.2530 1.2576 1.2604 1.2650 1.2677 1.2724 1.2751

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-24

     
Market Summary
周四(8月23日)美元指数连续5天的下跌势头暂停。因政治不确定性、新一轮贸易关税和美联储最新政策会议纪要共同提振了美元指数。数据方面,美国日内公布的经济数据表现良莠不齐,美国上周初请失业金人数为21万人,低于前值的21.2万人。预示着尽管贸易不确定性尚存,但劳工市场仍保持强劲。美国劳工市场的表现或是美联储加息背后的关键因素。经济学家表示,强劲的经济助益劳工市场承受贸易方面带来的挑战。而7月新屋销售为62.7万户,低于前值的63.1万户。受建筑材料成本增加,土地和劳工短缺影响,楼市数据在近几个月均表现疲软,新屋销售已连续四个月减少。尽管楼市放缓是因供应端限制所致,市场担忧这种持续性放缓将最终扩散至其他经济领域。数据公布后,对市场影响不明显,最终美元指数收于95.64。

现货黄金周四下跌,亚市早盘开于1195.30美元/金衡盎司后短线冲高,录得日内高点1196.35美元/金衡盎司后回落,金价转盘整后下跌。欧市金价波动加大,跌宕起伏。美市多头在小幅上攻后失败,金价震荡下行,录得日内低点1183.60美元/金衡盎司后收于1185.10美元/金衡盎司的低位。

国际原油周四收跌0.24元,或0.35%,报67.87美元/桶。虽然美国原油库存报告利好影响仍在发酵,但中美贸易紧张局势再度升温令投资者担忧加重,同时美元强势反弹也令油价承压。

美国股市在周四下跌,因美国和中国的贸易争端升级,两国对新一轮商品征收关税,打压对贸易敏感的类股。道琼工业指数下跌76.62点,或0.3%,至25,656.98点;标准普尔500指数挫4.84点,或0.17%,至2,856.98点;纳斯达克指数下跌10.64点,或0.13%,至7,878.46点。

个股方面,能源股指数 .SPNY 下跌0.5%,材料股指数 .SPLRCM 下跌0.7%,为标普主要类股中百分比跌幅最大的板块,因对贸易战的担忧拖累原油和金属价格下跌。美国肉类生产商荷美尔食品公司 HRL.N 下跌,此前该公司将季度业绩不佳归咎于中国的关税。荷美尔表示,中国的关税导致了国内供应过剩和价格下跌。该股收盘下跌3.1%。维多利亚的秘密的母公司有限品牌公司 LB.N 重挫11.4%,触及2011年3月以来最低,之前该公司下调全年财测。

日本股市周四收盘小升,日元走弱支撑大盘信心,但德国大陆集团(Continental)发布获利预警,拖累汽车及轮胎股。日经指数终场上涨0.22%或48.27点,收22,410.82点。

个股方面,汽车股、轮胎生产商和汽车配件生产商股票都下跌,因德国汽车零部件供应商大陆集团发布获利预警,导致股价大跌13%。丰田汽车和日产汽车分别跌1.1%和2.0%,普利司通下滑2.0%。而折扣家具店运营商Nitori Holdings 跳涨3.9%,因8月同店销售增长0.7%,超过预期。其它零售类股也上涨,日本永旺涨1.6%,迅销升2.8%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收涨,重回111关口上方。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上延伸。后市看来,价格支撑目标考验111关口。上行方面,价格初步阻力位于111.600一线,突破则进一步指向112.200一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅回落,承压于1.16一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.14500一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力看向1.16100一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜回落收跌,回撤至1.28一线附近寻求支撑。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱温和,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验1.27800一线,跌破则进一步看向1.27一线。上行方面,价格关键阻力位于1.29000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收跌,交投于1190一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价初步阻力依旧考验1200心理关口。下行方面,金价支撑目标下看1170一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收跌,一度触及日低至67.31一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于66.50一线。上行方面,油价阻力位于68.90一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收低,窄幅交投与25700一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向下延伸。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25900一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25500一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收涨,最高探至22515一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减殆尽,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22360一线,上方阻力位看向22680一线。

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-23

   
Market Summary
周三(8月22日)美元指数持续下跌。备受关注的美联储会议纪要如期揭开面纱,纪要显示,尽管美联储官员们对贸易战感到担忧,称持续的全球贸易紧张是美国经济增长强劲的最大威胁,但与此同时,暗示再一次加息将很快到来。此外,许多委员认为,在不远的将来将不再用“宽松”形容立场,鲍威尔暗示秋季重新讨论政策操作框架。纪要出炉之后,虽然美联储9月和12月加息预期小幅升温,但美元指数短线一度跌破95.00关口,随后触底反弹,最终美元指数收于95.10。数据方面,美国公布的7月成屋销售总数年化为534万户,低于前值和预期,年化户数环比连降四个月,创近两年半新低,录得五年来最长连跌,因供应短缺推升了房价,让一些潜在买家望而却步。

现货黄金周三亚市早盘开于1196.00美元/金衡盎司后小幅下跌,录得日内低点1192.30美元/金衡盎司后转涨,金价震荡上行。欧市金价转盘整,多空激战后多头获胜,金价重拾升势。美市多头加大攻势,金价录得日内高点1201.25美元/金衡盎司后转跌,金价震荡下行,之后再转盘整,终收于1195.30美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周三收涨2.06美元,或3.12%,报68.11美元/桶。美国原油库存报告整体利多,虽然美国原油产量仍在攀升,但美元回落则为油价反弹提供了助力。

美国股市在周三收盘涨跌不一,其中石油和天然气、科技和卫生保健等上涨的板块带领股指走高;与此同时,电信、生活消费品和公用事业板块等下跌的使股指走低。截至收盘,琼工业指数下跌88.69点,或0.34%,至25,733.60点;标准普尔500指数挫1.14点,或0.04%,至2,861.82点;纳斯达克指数涨29.92点,或0.38%,至7,889.10点。

个股方面,能源股 .SPNY 上涨1.2%,因油价跳升。零售商塔吉特(Target)触及纪录新高,收盘上涨3.2%,此前发布的季度业绩好于预期,且上调了其全年盈利预估。家居修缮用品零售商家劳氏(Lowe’s)也触及纪录新高,收盘劲升5.8%,此前该公司承诺削减销售缓慢的产品和不成功的商业项目。科技股 .SPLRCT 升0.5%,给标普500指数带来的提振最大。

日本股市周三收高,得益于科技股追随美国同业上涨。不过电信类股走势震荡,因有消息称政府希望调降移动电话费率并停止手机捆绑服务。日经指数终场上涨0.58%或127.77点,收22,347.50点。

个股方面,科技股表现超群,Advantest大涨1.6%,东京电子劲升2.4%。出口股上扬,本田汽车扬升1.9%,小松制作所大涨2.4%。而KDDI电信收盘下滑1.9%。 NTT Docomo一度大跌3.3%,之后扳回跌幅收低0.6%。软银集团最多下挫3.1%,但收高1.3%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续收涨,持稳110关口上方。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格支撑目标考验110关口。上行方面,价格初步阻力位于111关口,突破则进一步指向111.400一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜震荡收涨,窄幅交投于1.16一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上延伸。后市看来,价格支撑依旧考验1.15000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力看向1.16400一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜窄幅震荡,交投于1.29000一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验1.27800一线。上行方面,价格关键阻力位于1.30关口。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜震荡收平,一度探高至1200关口上方后回落。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价初步阻力依旧考验1200心理关口。下行方面,金价支撑目标下看1180一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜大幅飙升,最高探至68.12一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减殆尽,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于66.40一线。上行方面,油价阻力位于68.90一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜低开收平,一度探高至25833一线后回吐升幅。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25900一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25500一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜低开高走,最高触及22445一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22200一线,上方阻力位看向22500一线。

 

 

 市场报告                     2018-08-22

     
Market Summary
周二(8月21日)美元指数持续下挫,美市扩大跌幅,因仍受到美国总统特朗普对美联储的批评的不利影响,加上投资者在中美两国本周举行的谈判开始前,纷纷撤出美元,日内无重大数据公布,最终美元指数收于95.26。

现货黄金周二亚市早盘开于1190.20美元/金衡盎司后小幅攀升,不断上涨。欧市金价延续涨势,但在触及高位后回落,金价震荡下行,盘中出现跳水。美市金价进一步下挫,但在录得日内低点1187.40美元/金衡盎司后呈V型反弹,金价重拾升势,不断走高,录得日内高点1196.75美元/金衡盎司后小幅回落,终收于1196.00美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周二收涨0.60美元,或0.92%,报66.05美元/桶。伊朗原油供应恐受到进一步打压为油价提供有效支撑,即使美国计划出售战略储备原油来稳定油市,同时美元的走弱也提振原油多头信心。

美国股市在周二收高,因消费类板块的季报令人鼓舞,美国和中国之间持续的贸易战相对平静。道琼工业指数上涨63.60点,或0.25%,至25,822.29点;标准普尔500指数涨5.91点,或0.21%,至2,862.96点;纳斯达克指数涨38.17点,或0.49%,至7,859.17点。

个股方面,标普非必需消费品类股.SPLRCD 攀升0.9%,因折扣零售商TJX Companies TJX.N 发布强劲业绩后上涨,Toll Brothers TOL.N 发布令人鼓舞的季度业绩,提振房屋建筑商类股股价走高。但美容产品制造商Coty Inc COTY.N 季度营收不及预期,这是六个季度以来首次,拖累股价急跌7.1%。

日本股市周二扳回跌幅收高,因此前日元走低引发期货买盘,但移动运营商板块下挫,因有媒体援引一名日本官员的话报导称该行业亟待改革。日经指数终场小涨0.09%或20.73点,收22,219.73点。

个股方面,KDDI电信大跌5.2%,NTT Docomo重挫4.0%,软银集团股份有限公司 下跌1.6%,计划推出移动通讯业务的电子商务业者乐天大跌3.6%。电子类股也下跌,其中Panasonic下跌2.1%,阿尔卑斯电气下跌1.4%。东京制铁大跌2.86%。东京制铁连7个月维持钢价不变。

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜震荡收涨,一度下破110关口后反弹走高。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格支撑目标考验110关口,跌破则进一步指向108.700一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力位于111关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜延续收涨,逼近1.16一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,双线金叉,RSI指标大幅向上。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.15000一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力看向1.16400一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜大幅飙升,最高探至1.29233一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,双线金叉,RSI指标向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验1.27800一线。上行方面,价格关键阻力位于1.30关口。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜延续反弹,小幅探高至1196一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减殆尽,双线金叉,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,金价初步阻力考验1200心理关口。下行方面,金价支撑目标下看1180一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,最高触及66.47一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于64.60一线。上行方面,油价阻力位于67.90一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收涨,一度触及新高至25883一线后收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25900一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25490一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收涨,一度触及日低至22030一线后反弹走高。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22400一线。

 

 

21 8月 2018

Daily  Market View

    

Daily  Market View

Tuesday, August 21, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25761 2859.00 7388.00
+0.13% +0.08% +0.13%

U.S stocks closed higher for a third session yesterday as a pair of billion-dollar deals reaffirmed confidence that the U.S economy continues its steady expansion. Optimism that progress would be made toward resolving contentious trade disputes between the U.S and China also bolstered sentiment.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 89.37 points, or 0.4%, with Nike Inc. rising 3.1% to hit a 52-week high. The S&P 500 index climbed 6.92 points, or 0.2%, led by materials and energy sectors. The NASDAQ Index reversed earlier losses to advance 4.68 points. U.S. equities rose sharply last week, on hopes for improving trade relations, as well as signs of stabilization in Turkey’s currency market. The Dow jumped 1.4%, a move that took it to its highest close since February. The S&P 500 added 0.6% and is within 1% of its record. The NASDAQ dipped 0.3% over the course of last week, but it is also within striking distance of its record. However, this week will also see the imposition of 25% tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese imports.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

RBA Meeting Minutes 01:30    

jul

New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) 03:00   5.7%

jul

Japan Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) 05:30   3.1%

jul

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 06:00   13.0%

jul

U.K Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) 08:30   13.3b

jul

U.K Central Government NCR 08:30   13.6b

jul

U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing 08:30 -2.2b 4.5b

jun

Canada Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 12:30 0.7% 1.2%

2Q

New Zealand Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) 22:45 0.3% 0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.35% to hit new 6-months high yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Nike Inc., which rose 3.05% or 2.43 points to trade at 82.18 at the close. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson added 1.79% or 2.41 points to end at 136.88 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 1.61% or 1.11 points to 70.17 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 1.89% or 1.85 points to trade at 96.00 at the close. Intel Corporation declined 1.27% or 0.60 points to end at 46.50 and Apple Inc. was down 0.97% or 2.12 points to 215.46.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.06% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc. which rose 52.53% to 3.020, China Commercial Credit Inc. which was up 30.53% to settle at 0.7700 and Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd which gained 30.34% to close at 11.60. The worst performers were NF Energy Saving Corporation which was down 21.26% to 4.3700 in late trade, Aralez Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 19.58% to settle at 0.03 and Zion Oil & Gas Inc. which was down 16.85% to 1.530 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices edged higher today as U.S fuel markets were seen to be tightening while looming American sanctions against Iran were expected to cut supply out of global markets. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery were up 27 cents, or 0.4 percent. Traders said U.S. markets were lifted by a tightening outlook for fuel markets in the coming months. Inventories in the United States for refined products such as diesel and heating oil for this time of year are at their lowest in four years. This is occurring just ahead of the peak demand period for these fuels, with diesel needed for tractors to harvest crops and the arrival of colder weather during the Northern Hemisphere autumn raising consumption of heating oil. Outside the United States, markets focused on U.S. sanctions against Iran, which from November will target its oil sector. The impact of the Iran sanctions is not yet clear.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices climbed on the back of a weaker dollar today, extending gains into a third session, after U.S President Donald Trump said he was “not thrilled” with the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,193.92 an ounce after gaining 0.5 percent in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were up 0.5 percent at $1,200.6 an ounce. Trump’s remarks are having a negative effect on the U.S. dollar, and in turn, lending support to gold prices. The dollar sagged against major peers and the yen today after Trump criticized his own appointee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for raising interest rates. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. rates, as these increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. The U.S central bank has raised rates twice this year and targets two more hikes, with the next one slated in September. However, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said he was maintaining his expectation for one more interest rate hike this year. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to the release of Fed’s August meeting minutes on Wednesday and the bank’s annual policy symposium at Jackson Hole later this week. Until there is a sustained sell-off in the dollar, speculators will be more prone to sell upticks in gold. In equity markets, Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, supported by hopes that Beijing and Washington would dial back trade hostilities ahead of a U.S.-China meeting this week, but comments from Trump about manipulation of the yuan and the Federal Reserve policy capped gains. Among other precious metals, spot silver climbed 0.3 percent to $14.75 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.6 percent to $798.50, while palladium remained steady at $910.50. Copper rebounded from three straight weekly declines as U.S-China trade tensions eased and a jump in orders for the metal pointed to stronger demand.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures fell three per cent yesterday on expectations of a pickup in Russian wheat exports in the next few months as shippers try to get ahead of potential export curbs, traders said, while soybeans clung to modest advances. Corn followed wheat lower yesterday.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, August 20, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25699 25788 25660 25761 83
S & P 500 SPM18 2851.5 2860.5 2850 2859 6.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7390.25 7420.5 7351.25 7388 -0.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27194 27549 27135 27520 379
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22240 22265 22125 22180 -90
FTSE 100 FTH18 7548.5 7608 7547 7583 28
Gold GCJ18 1190.8 1197.5 1189.6 1197.5 13.1
Silver SIK18 1475 1482 1461.5 1475.5 11
Copper HGK18 265.3 268.2 264.15 267.05 3.7
Crude Oil CLK18 65.12 65.59 64.81 65.51 0.21
Wheat WK18 558.25 559 540.25 543.25 -16.5
Soybeans SK18 886.5 894.25 880.25 883.5 0.25
Corn CK18 363.75 365.25 359.25 363 -2

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25557 25608 25685 25736 25813 25864 25941
SPM18 2842.00 2846.00 2852.50 2856.50 2863.00 2867.00 2873.50
NDM18 7283.42 7317.33 7352.67 7386.58 7421.92 7455.83 7491.17
HSH18 26840 26987 27254 27401 27668 27815 28082
NKH18 21975 22050 22115 22190 22255 22330 22395
FTH18 7489.67 7518.33 7550.67 7579.33 7611.67 7640.33 7672.67
GCJ18 1184.33 1186.97 1192.23 1194.87 1200.13 1202.77 1208.03
SIK18 1443.50 1452.50 1464.00 1473.00 1484.50 1493.50 1505.00
HGK18 260.68 262.42 264.73 266.47 268.78 270.52 272.83
CLK18 64.24 64.52 65.02 65.30 65.80 66.08 66.58
WK18 517.25 528.75 536.00 547.50 554.75 566.25 573.50
SK18 863.75 872.00 877.75 886.00 891.75 900.00 905.75
CK18 353.75 356.50 359.75 362.50 365.75 368.50 371.75

 

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

21 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

   

FOREX Newsletter

August 21, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      President Trump complained about the Fed’s rate hikes at a Hamptons fundraiser this weekend

·      China – U.S trade talks and the Jackson Hole summit could affect all of the major currencies

·      As for Brexit, investors don’t expect any significant progress with the deadline quickly approaching

·      The rally in the Euro was driven by the combination of U.S Dollar selling and short covering

The U.S Dollar started this new trading week with another day of losses. The greenback either held steady or extended its slide against all of the major currencies. While there were no buyers at the start of the NY session, the selling only gained momentum on reports that President Trump complained about the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes at a Hamptons fundraiser this weekend. This is the second time that we’ve heard the President lament about Fed tightening and theoretically, his views are not supposed to affect monetary policy. However, if the central bank raises interest rates next month but fails to commit to a fourth hike, there’s no doubt that some market participants will attribute that to pressure from the President regardless of whether its true. Yet, the real reason why the dollar was down yesterday is because Treasury yields continued to fall and Fed President Bostic said he favors only 3 rate hikes this year, encouraging traders to cover their short positions in euro, sterling and other beta currencies.  The market’s reaction to President Trump’s comments gave investors a taste of what could drive FX flows this week. There are no major U.S economic reports on the calendar and the only pieces of potentially market moving data from other parts of the world are Eurozone PMIs along with Canada and New Zealand’s retail sales reports. As for Brexit, we don’t expect any significant progress but with the October deadline quickly approaching, a lack of positive developments could be perceived as negative for the currency. About 2 years ago, the European Commission’s Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier gave the UK 18 months to negotiate the terms of exit. The European Union, on the other hand, see the deadline as a way to get the UK to bend so as the clock ticks, not only could the deadline get pushed to November but the chance of no deal increases exponentially. None of this is good for sterling and this explains the restrained rally in GBP/USD despite hefty short positions and decent data. Euro, on the other hand, closed at 1.15. The rally was driven by the combination of U.S. Dollar selling, short covering and the relief that Italian bond yields fell sharply after rising steadily for the past 2 months. According to last week’s CFTC data, speculators are short euros for the first time in over a year. While this may not be surprising or seem significant, it is a big change from April, when euro positions were net long and at their highest level in 2 decades.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 RBA Meeting Minutes (AUG 7) Medium      
03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUL) Medium 3.2%   5.7%
05:30 Japan Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium -6.1%   3.1%
05:30 Japan Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium -4.5%   6.9%
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUL) Low 13.1%   13.0%
08:30 U.K Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUL) Medium     13.3b
08:30 U.K Central Government NCR (JUL) Medium     13.6b
08:30 U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUL) Medium   -2.2b 4.5b
12:30 Canada Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low   0.7% 1.2%
22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (2Q) Medium   0.3% 0.1%

 

Euro

The single currency has been somewhat noisy during the session but in a good way. The market had beaten this currency down but it seems like fears about the Turkish lira and contagion are starting to drop off a bit. That’s a good sign, and it seems as if the attitudes of traders around the world is the step back a bit. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1393 and a high of 1.1483 before closing the day around 1.1483 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair finished lower last week for the fourth week out of five as investors pumped money in the Japanese Yen due to safe-haven buying related to the financial crisis in Turkey and its impact on emerging markets. Falling U.S Treasury yields helped tighten the spread between U.S. Government bond yields and Japanese Government bond yields. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.00 and a high of 110.66 before closing the day around 110.08 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

 

The British Pound continues to get punished for all things Brexit and of course an inability of Conservative Party members in the U.K to get it together and present a united front. People are starting to price in the idea of a “no deal Brexit”, so things are becoming much more negative. At this point, the trade of the century might be buying the Pound at low levels. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2727 and a high of 1.2797 before closing the day at 1.2797 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar rose to a 10-day high against its U.S counterpart yesterday, as oil prices climbed and U.S President Donald Trump said he disagreed with the U.S Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The U.S Dollar fell against a basket of major currencies as Trump showed his displeasure with Fed tightening. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3037 and a high of 1.3090 before closing the day at 1.3046 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar finished higher last week. Aussie was driven sharply lower early in the last week by a stronger U.S Dollar before reversing to the upside. Some of the pressure came from spillover selling related to the previous week’s dovish monetary policy statements. There were also concerns raised over a weakening China economy. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7293 and a high of 0.7342 before closing the day at 0.7340 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.05%.

 

  

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 29 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.08%.

 

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.02%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 29 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.03%.

 

 

Appendix

 

 

FOREX Closing Prices for August 20, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14352 1.14836 1.1393 1.14836 0.0042
USD/JPY 110.499 110.665 110.002 110.084 -0.4560
GBP/USD 1.27432 1.27978 1.27276 1.27971 0.0045
USD/CHF 0.99507 0.99667 0.99089 0.99166 -0.0039
USD/CAD 1.30551 1.30904 1.30374 1.30463 -0.0016
EUR/JPY 126.374 126.441 126.052 126.4 -0.0610
GBP/JPY 140.828 141.195 140.694 140.865 -0.0920
CHF/JPY 111.016 111.21 110.915 111.03 -0.0240
AUD/JPY 80.788 80.921 80.559 80.79 -0.0660
EUR/GBP 0.89716 0.89743 0.89377 0.89743 0.0002
EUR/CHF 1.138 1.1386 1.13516 1.1386 -0.0004
GBP/CHF 1.26819 1.27094 1.26637 1.26918 -0.0004

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1333 1.1363 1.1423 1.1453 1.1514 1.1544 1.1604
USD/JPY 109.17 109.59 109.84 110.25 110.50 110.91 111.16
GBP/USD 1.2680 1.2704 1.2751 1.2774 1.2821 1.2844 1.2891
USD/CHF 0.9837 0.9873 0.9895 0.9931 0.9953 0.9989 1.0010
USD/CAD 1.2973 1.3005 1.3026 1.3058 1.3079 1.3111 1.3132
EUR/JPY 125.77 125.91 126.15 126.30 126.54 126.69 126.93
GBP/JPY 140.14 140.42 140.64 140.92 141.14 141.42 141.64
CHF/JPY 110.60 110.76 110.89 111.05 111.19 111.35 111.48
AUD/JPY 80.23 80.39 80.59 80.76 80.95 81.12 81.32
EUR/GBP 0.8913 0.8926 0.8950 0.8962 0.8987 0.8999 0.9023
EUR/CHF 1.1329 1.1340 1.1363 1.1375 1.1397 1.1409 1.1432
GBP/CHF 1.2622 1.2643 1.2667 1.2688 1.2713 1.2734 1.2759

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-21

     
Market Summary
周一(8月20日)美元指数于美市盘中短线下滑。因对即将举行的美中贸易磋商的乐观情绪与日俱增,加上美国总统特朗普表示反对美联储进一步加息的言论打压下,美元指数扩大跌幅,跌破96.00关口。日内无重大数据公布,市场较为平静,最终美元指数收于95.79。

现货黄金周一小幅上涨,亚市早盘开于1182.90美元/金衡盎司后持稳,欧市金价涨跌不定,窄幅波动。而美市金价加大波动,多空博弈加剧,多头上攻录得日内高点1190.55美元/金衡盎司后转盘整,终收于1190.20美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周一小幅收跌0.48美元,或0.73%,报65.45美元/桶。贸易紧张情绪有所缓解提振原油多头信心,同时伊朗制裁影响发酵令原油供应蒙上阴影,加上美元回落也为油价带来了支撑。

美国股市在周一收高,因美中磋商的乐观情绪提振工业、能源和材料等对贸易敏感类股上涨。道琼工业指数上涨89.37点,或0.35%,至25,758.69点;标准普尔500指数上涨6.92点,或0.24%,至2,857.05点;纳斯达克指数涨4.68点,或0.06%,至7,821.01点。

个股方面,百事公司同意以32亿美元的价格收购SodaStream,即每股144美元。该交易预计将在明年1月前完成。 SodaStream股价上涨约9.4%。而Facebook股价下跌0.8%,此前有报导称,美国政府正试图迫使该公司破解其在Messages应用上的加密功能。

日本股市周一收低,因芯片相关类股走弱,追随美国同业周五的跌势。目前市场交投淡静,投资人静待本周中美贸易谈判的进展。日经指数终场收低0.32%或71.38点,收22,199.00点。

个股方面,SUMCO大跌3.0%、设备商东京威力科创跌1.0%、Advantest跌1.1%。 FamilyMart UNY Holdings狂泻11.27%。伊藤忠商事宣布已完成对FamilyMart的TOB,持股比重提高至50.1%、将FamilyMart收编为旗下子公司。

 

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜延续收跌,最低探至110关口附近,刷新近两个月低位。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,RSI指标向下延伸。后市看来,价格支撑目标考验110关口,跌破则进一步指向108.700一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力位于110.800一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜进一步反弹,最高探至1.14836一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上延伸。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.14500一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力看向1.16400一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜温和收涨,小幅探高至1.27983一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标离开超卖区。后市看来,价格依旧考验1.27000一线支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.29300一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜延续反弹,小幅探高至1190一线上方。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,金价初步阻力考验1200心理关口。下行方面,金价支撑目标下看1170一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜低开收涨,窄幅交投于65.10一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于64.20一线。上行方面,油价阻力位于66.60一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收涨,高位交投于25700一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向25840一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25470一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收跌,最低探至22125一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22000关口,上方阻力位看向22300一线。

 

 

20 8月 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Monday, August 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25678 2852.75 7388.25
+0.43% +0.33% +0.13%

The U.S stock market is well on its way to better-than-average gains this year, but a quick glance at overseas markets reveals a more sobering story. Global stock markets are having a tough 2018. While the S&P 500 is up more than 6 percent and less than 1 percent away from new highs. Although some have speculated that fears of slower economic growth in China may be partly responsible for feeble stock performance there, Hong Kong and Shanghai are by no means alone. Ever since the Federal Reserve began unwinding its massive balance sheet and hiking interest rates, the U.S. dollar has gradually climbed against a basket of other currencies. All else equal, higher interest rates in a country increase the value of that country’s currency as foreigners flock to take advantage of better yields. A weak dollar tends to juice emerging markets as debt denominated in U.S. dollars becomes easier to repay with local-currency revenue. A stronger greenback, on the other hand, can drive investors back to the dollar.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

New Zealand Dairy Auction Whole Milk Powder MT     $2958

jul

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 06:00   3.0%

jul

Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) 07:00   1.1%

aug

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits CHF 08:00    

jun

Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) 09:00   1.8%

 

Fed’s Bostic Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Tennessee 15:00    

 

U.S. to Sell 3-Month Bills 15:30    

jul

New Zealand Net Migration s.a. (JUL) 22:45   4840

aug

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 23:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.43% to hit a new 3-month high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Caterpillar Inc., which rose 2.25% or 3.06 points to trade at 139.32 at the close. Meanwhile, Apple Inc. added 2.00% or 4.26 points to end at 217.58 and Pfizer Inc. was up 1.59% or 0.66 points to 42.08 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 0.80% or 0.79 points to trade at 97.85 at the close. Nike Inc. declined 0.39% or 0.31 points to end at 79.74 and McDonald’s Corporation was down 0.35% or 0.57 points to 161.16.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index gained 0.13% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Izea Inc. which rose 33.33% to 1.4600, Sigma Designs Inc. which was up 24.24% to settle at 0.25 and Bellerophon Therapeutics Inc. which gained 22.81% to close at 0.798. The worst performers were Zion Oil & Gas Inc. which was down 27.13% to 1.840 in late trade, Boxlight Corp Class A which lost 18.78% to settle at 3.98 and US Energy Corp which was down 15.69% to 0.8600 at the close.

Oil

Crude prices rose on Friday, but declined on the week on worries that oversupply would weigh on the U.S market while trade disputes and slowing global economic growth would dampen demand for oil. U.S crude declined for the seventh consecutive week, and global benchmark Brent was dropped for a third week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 45 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $65.91, after touching a session high of $66.39. For the week, Brent was down 1.4 percent, and U.S crude fell 2.6 percent. Falling prices have weighed on funds with oil exposure. Money managers cut their net long U.S crude futures and options positions to the lowest in nearly two months in the week to Aug. 14, the U.S Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. U.S government data this week showed a large buildup in crude inventories, with production also increased. Investors remain cautious as Wednesday’s surprise gain in U.S. stockpiles remained fresh in their minds.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold recovered some ground on Friday as a weakening U.S Dollar relieved pressure on prices, but the precious metal remained near 19-month lows and looked poised for its biggest weekly drop since May 2017. Spot gold added 0.31 percent to $1,177.21 ounce but was down 2.7 percent this week in its sixth consecutive weekly loss. On Thursday, it touched $1,159.96, the lowest since January 2017. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up 20 cents, or 0.02 percent, at $1,184.20 per ounce. The markets are much oversold and the dollar is overbought. From a 13-month high on Wednesday against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar has weakened against the currencies of key gold markets, the eurozone and China, helping gold regain its footing.  I expect the dollar to peak in the coming weeks … Gold should bottom out here. Gold has tumbled 14 percent from its April high as a rally in the greenback made dollar-priced bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Investors seeking a safe place to store assets amid trade disputes and a Turkish currency crisis have preferred the dollar to gold, undermining the reputation of bullion as a safe haven. But news of planned U.S.-China trade talks and a partial recovery of Turkey’s lira have steadied investors’ nerves slightly. Bets on lower prices on the Comex exchange continue to build and now outweigh bets on higher prices by the largest quantity ever recorded. Meanwhile, silver gained 0.3 percent to $14.66 an ounce, but was down more than 4 percent on the week, the biggest weekly loss since February. On Thursday it touched its lowest since February 2016. Platinum increased 0.2 percent to $778.40 an ounce and was set for its biggest weekly drop since November 2015 of about 6 percent. It hit a 10-year low on Thursday. Palladium gained 1.1 percent to $898.90 per ounce but was down 1.4 percent this week having struck a one-year low.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures jumped to their highest prices in more than a week on Friday on concerns that top-exporter Russia may curb grain exports. Russia will consider restricting 2018-19 shipments once they reach 30 million tonnes, following a request from the meat-producing region.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, August 17, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25575 25729 25504 25678 86
S & P 500 SPM18 2843.25 2857 2835 2852.75 7.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7382 7406.5 7321.5 7388.25 -2
Hang Seng HSH18 27210 27328 27001 27141 103
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22250 22325 22220 22270 120
FTSE 100 FTH18 7550 7572.5 7504 7555 17.5
Gold GCJ18 1180.4 1187.1 1178.5 1184.4 3.7
Silver SIK18 1462.5 1474 1456.5 1464.5 2
Copper HGK18 260.55 263.85 259.85 263.35 2.6
Crude Oil CLK18 65.43 66.35 65.27 66.01 0.58
Wheat WK18 541.75 562.5 534.75 559.75 18.5
Soybeans SK18 885.75 886.25 870.5 883.25 -2
Corn CK18 364.5 367.5 361.5 365 0

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25320 25412 25545 25637 25770 25862 25995
SPM18 2817.50 2826.25 2839.50 2848.25 2861.50 2870.25 2883.50
NDM18 7252.67 7287.08 7337.67 7372.08 7422.67 7457.08 7507.67
HSH18 26658 26830 26985 27157 27312 27484 27639
NKH18 22113 22167 22218 22272 22323 22377 22428
FTH18 7446.67 7475.33 7515.17 7543.83 7583.67 7612.33 7652.17
GCJ18 1170.97 1174.73 1179.57 1183.33 1188.17 1191.93 1196.77
SIK18 1438.50 1447.50 1456.00 1465.00 1473.50 1482.50 1491.00
HGK18 256.85 258.35 260.85 262.35 264.85 266.35 268.85
CLK18 64.32 64.80 65.40 65.88 66.48 66.96 67.56
WK18 514.42 524.58 542.17 552.33 569.92 580.08 597.67
SK18 858.00 864.25 873.75 880.00 889.50 895.75 905.25
CK18 355.83 358.67 361.83 364.67 367.83 370.67 373.83

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

August 20, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      Dollar fell against the major currencies following softer than expected U.S consumer confidence

·      Slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the Euro

·      Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery

·      Canadian Dollar benefitted from stronger than expected consumer price growth

  

The second full week in August was a good one for the U.S Dollar. The greenback extended its gains against most of the major currencies but the rally is slowing as investors cover their shorts in EUR/USD, AUD/USD and other major currencies. Softer than expected U.S consumer confidence helped to fuel their recoveries but the prospect of 2 relatively quiet data weeks and the potential for a disruptive trade meeting between the U.S. and China also encouraged investors to reduce their short positions. The most important event risk next week will be the U.S. and China’s trade talks on August 21 and 22. If the talks go well, risk appetite will improve allowing deeply oversold currencies like the Australian dollar to recover. However if the U.S. and China continue to bump heads, we could see renewed losses for euro, sterling and Aussie along with gains for the U.S Dollar. U.S fundamentals are still sound and next week’s FOMC minutes will remind us that the Fed is on course to raise rates in September. So at most we expect the pullback in USD/JPY to take the pair to 109.90 or 110. After hitting a low of 1.13 on Wednesday, EUR/USD ended the week near 1.14. Like the U.S., slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the currency. Eurozone PMIs are due for release in the week ahead and of all the economic reports on the calendar, these are the most important because previously, we’ve seen very little sign of trade tensions impacting the Eurozone economy but if the August numbers show a slowdown, euro will resume its slide. If the data shows that manufacturing and service sector activity continued to expand at a faster pace, EUR/USD could extend its gains to 1.15. Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery. With short positions at their highest level since May 2017, GBP/USD was at the greatest risk of a short covering rally. Consumer spending rose 3 times more than expected in July, year over year CPI growth accelerated to 2.5%, well above the central bank’s 2% target and the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 43 years. There was a slowdown in wage growth and zero price growth on a month to month basis, but the improvements should have overshadowed the deterioration. Yet it did not, which shows how strong the selling pressure really is. The problem is that the risk of a no-deal Brexit is growing but taking a look at the GBP/USD daily chart – higher highs and higher lows suggest that a stronger recovery is brewing. If it happens, it would be driven by Brexit headlines or a deeper pullback in the U.S Dollar because there are no major UK economic reports for the rest of the month. All three of the commodity currencies traded higher today with the Canadian leading the gains.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low     3.0%
07:00 Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) Low     1.1%
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (AUG 17) Low      
09:00 Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN) Low     1.8%
15:00 U.S Fed’s Bostic Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Tennessee Low      
22:45 New Zealand Net Migration s.a. (JUL) Low     4840
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 19) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency traded better against the U.S. Dollar on Friday. The single currency continues to be supported by the announcement of renewed trade talks between the United States and China later this month. Considering the limited impact on European banks, the recent sell-off in the Euro appears to have been overdone. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1365 and a high of 1.1443 before closing the day around 1.1441 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair was under pressure last week on trade tensions and on revelations the Bank of Japan is under pressure to move away from its accommodative policy. Early in the week, the Yen was supported by solid domestic data. Late in the week, geopolitical tensions sparked a flight-to-safety rally into the Japanese Yen. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.29 and a high of 111.03 before closing the day around 110.54 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound struggled during the last week, as we reached down to the next support level. People are starting to price in the idea of a “no deal Brexit”, so things are becoming much more negative. At this point, the trade of the century might be buying the British pound at low levels, but clearly you need a longer-term signal to start doing that. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2695 and a high of 1.2752 before closing the day at 1.2752 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart on Friday after data showed a surge in domestic inflation triggered increased bets on another Bank of Canada interest rate hike as soon as September. Canada’s annual inflation rate surged to 3.0 per cent in July, its highest in nearly seven years, versus 2.5 per cent the previous month. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3049 and a high of 1.3167 before closing the day at 1.3062 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar broke sharply last week amid expectations that domestic interest rates would remain at historical lows longer than expected and rising geopolitical turmoil that dampened demand for higher-yielding currencies. The Australian Dollar weakened as the central bank showed no intention of raising rates over the near future. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7250 and a high of 0.7317 before closing the day at 0.7315 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.26%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.46%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.19%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 17, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1375 1.14435 1.1365 1.14414 0.0066
USD/JPY 110.867 111.033 110.296 110.54 -0.3420
GBP/USD 1.27109 1.2752 1.26959 1.2752 0.0039
USD/CHF 0.99665 0.9976 0.9931 0.99558 -0.0010
USD/CAD 1.31553 1.31672 1.30497 1.30621 -0.0092
EUR/JPY 126.127 126.584 125.555 126.461 0.3220
GBP/JPY 140.985 141.143 140.202 140.957 -0.0160
CHF/JPY 111.206 111.29 110.787 111.054 -0.1620
AUD/JPY 80.468 80.938 80.071 80.856 0.3710
EUR/GBP 0.89465 0.89759 0.8934 0.89726 0.0026
EUR/CHF 1.13385 1.13921 1.13277 1.13899 0.0051
GBP/CHF 1.26656 1.26992 1.26485 1.26954 0.0023

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1311 1.1338 1.1390 1.1417 1.1468 1.1495 1.1547
USD/JPY 109.48 109.89 110.21 110.62 110.95 111.36 111.69
GBP/USD 1.2659 1.2677 1.2715 1.2733 1.2771 1.2789 1.2827
USD/CHF 0.9888 0.9909 0.9933 0.9954 0.9978 0.9999 1.0023
USD/CAD 1.2901 1.2976 1.3019 1.3093 1.3136 1.3211 1.3254
EUR/JPY 124.79 125.17 125.82 126.20 126.85 127.23 127.87
GBP/JPY 139.45 139.83 140.39 140.77 141.33 141.71 142.27
CHF/JPY 110.29 110.54 110.80 111.04 111.30 111.55 111.80
AUD/JPY 79.44 79.75 80.31 80.62 81.17 81.49 82.04
EUR/GBP 0.8904 0.8919 0.8946 0.8961 0.8988 0.9003 0.9030
EUR/CHF 1.1283 1.1306 1.1348 1.1370 1.1412 1.1434 1.1477
GBP/CHF 1.2612 1.2630 1.2663 1.2681 1.2714 1.2732 1.2764

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

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