31 8月 2018

Daily  Market View

 

Daily  Market View

Friday, August 31, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26008 2901.75 7648.25
-0.66% -0.59% -0.41%

Gains in U.S stocks came to a halt yesterday as concerns rose among investors that the U.S.-Chinese trade dispute will intensify, while economic turmoil in Turkey and Argentina sent those countries’ currencies tumbling. Stock markets and major government bond yields have risen in recent weeks on hopes that a global trade war can be averted, particularly with the leaders of the United States and Canada optimistic they could reach a new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) by today. Investor sentiment darkened, however, on the prospect that U.S. tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods may likely take effect in late September. U.S. Treasury yields fell yesterday morning after a measure of underlying inflation hit the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target for the third time this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 111.9 points, or 0.43 percent, the S&P 500 lost 8.55 points or 0.29 percent and the NASDAQ dropped 10.86 points, or 0.13 percent.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

China Non-manufacturing PMI 01:00 53.7 54

aug

China Manufacturing PMI 01:00 51 51.2

jul

Japan Housing Starts (YoY) 05:00 -4.3% -7.1%

jul

German Retail Sales (YoY) 06:00 1.3% 3.0%

jul

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 09:00 8.2% 8.3%

aug

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 09:00 1.1% 1.1%

aug

U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager 13:45 64 65.5

aug

U.S U of Mich. Sentiment 14:00 95.5 95.3

aug

Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count 17:00   1044
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Apple Inc., which rose 0.92% or 2.05 points to trade at 225.03 at the close. Meanwhile, Walmart Inc. added 0.48% or 0.46 points to end at 96.10 and Verizon Communications Inc. was up 0.33% or 0.18 points to 54.75 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Caterpillar Inc., which fell 1.97% or 2.80 points to trade at 139.06 at the close. Nike Inc. declined 1.68% or 1.39 points to end at 81.40 and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. was down 1.25% or 0.86 points to 67.80.

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 0.26%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Bridgeline Digital Inc. which rose 53.40% to 1.3800, CPI Card Group Inc. which was up 38.52% to settle at 3.74 and Insys Therapeutics Inc. which gained 34.05% to close at 10.67. The worst performers were Cronos Group Inc. which was down 28.41% to 9.1200 in late trade, GreenPro Capital Corp which lost 20.49% to settle at 6.000000 and Kirklands Inc. which was down 18.78% to 9.34 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose yesterday to the highest in more than a month, extending gains on growing evidence of disruptions to crude supply from Iran and Venezuela and after a fall in U.S crude inventories. U.S crude was 89 cents higher at $70.40, after earlier hitting a session high of $70.50. Both contracts were at their highest in more than one month. A rally that started earlier in the day accelerated as U.S crude rose above $70 a barrel, and more speculators entered the market. There are pretty good tailwinds here that will keep people jumping on board. Iranian crude exports are likely to drop to a little more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, against a peak of 3.1 million bpd in April, as importers bow to American pressure to cut orders. Crude exports from crisis-struck OPEC member Venezuela have also fallen sharply, halving in recent years to about 1 million bpd. Official U.S oil inventory data on Wednesday also helped the bullish trend. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by a larger than expected 2.6 million barrels.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold slid below key support of $1,200 an ounce yesterday, undermined by a firmer dollar following strong U.S economic data. Spot gold lost 0.6 percent to $1,198.84 an ounce, while December U.S gold futures settled down $6.50, or 0.5 percent, at $1,205. Spot gold hit a six-day low of $1,195.95. Although we have quite a high conviction for higher prices in the medium and long term, we see a little bit of a challenge in the short term as long as the dollar remains strong. The dollar index gained against a basket of major currencies after U.S. consumer spending increased in July, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Even with all of the geopolitical and trade tensions, we’re still seeing good earnings by companies and that’s supporting higher equity markets too pressuring gold. Spot gold has been trading within an $8 range over the past two sessions, with investors keenly watching the psychological $1,200 level after the metal broke below that mark and hit a 1-1/2 year low of $1,159.96 early this month. The greenback’s strength against the yuan was making bullion expensive for buyers in the world’s biggest bullion consumer, China, yesterday. Gold investors also trimmed positions ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend. While a relatively stronger Dollar and U.S economic growth are hurting the bullion’s appeal, concerns that Turkey’s financial crisis could spread may give the metal a reversal of fate. Spot silver fell 1.2 percent at $14.54 an ounce, earlier sliding to $14.47, a six-day low. Platinum lost 0.7 percent at $790.49 per ounce, while palladium was unchanged at percent at $965 after hitting its highest since June 19 at $983.75. Copper prices fell for the second straight session yesterday, with some investors still nervous about the impact of recent trade tensions on global growth.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures rose for a third consecutive session yesterday, adding to a steep rise the day before on concerns that Russia may curb exports after a drought pushed prices higher. Wheat closed up 4.4 percent on Wednesday. Soybeans and corn rose, but gains were limited by expectations of all-time high output in the United States. Soybeans were up 0.5 percent while corn also added 0.5 percent.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, August 30, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26156 26166 25944 26008 -137
S & P 500 SPM18 2915.5 2916.25 2895.5 2901.75 -13
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7672.25 7696.75 7626 7648.25 -20.5
Hang Seng HSH18 28468 28510 28039 28065 -212
Nikkei 225 NKH18 23050 23070 22830 22880 25
FTSE 100 FTH18 7542 7546.5 7480.5 7490 -72
Gold GCJ18 1213 1213.8 1201.8 1205.6 -7
Silver SIK18 1467.5 1469.5 1441.5 1445 -23
Copper HGK18 270.8 271.35 265.5 267.35 -3.25
Crude Oil CLK18 69.68 70.46 69.52 70.01 0.35
Wheat WK18 546.25 549 529.75 535.25 -5.5
Soybeans SK18 838 844.25 828.75 831 -4.25
Corn CK18 357 358.5 355.5 356 0

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25691 25817 25913 26039 26135 26261 26357
SPM18 2872.00 2883.75 2892.75 2904.50 2913.50 2925.25 2934.25
NDM18 7546.50 7586.25 7617.25 7657.00 7688.00 7727.75 7758.75
HSH18 27428 27734 27899 28205 28370 28676 28841
NKH18 22543 22687 22783 22927 23023 23167 23263
FTH18 7398.83 7439.67 7464.83 7505.67 7530.83 7571.67 7596.83
GCJ18 1188.33 1195.07 1200.33 1207.07 1212.33 1219.07 1224.33
SIK18 1406.50 1424.00 1434.50 1452.00 1462.50 1480.00 1490.50
HGK18 258.93 262.22 264.78 268.07 270.63 273.92 276.48
CLK18 68.59 69.06 69.53 70.00 70.47 70.94 71.41
WK18 507.75 518.75 527.00 538.00 546.25 557.25 565.50
SK18 809.58 819.17 825.08 834.67 840.58 850.17 856.08
CK18 351.83 353.67 354.83 356.67 357.83 359.67 360.83

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-31

     
Market Summary
周四(8月30日)美元指数止跌反弹,晚间全球市场短线波动剧烈。因接连出现了许多重要数据,日内公布的美国上周初请失业救济金人数为21.3万人,高于前值的21.0万人,而7月核心PCE指数年率为2%,高于预期的1.9 %并且升至6年高位,提振美联储12月加息的可能性。与此同时,加拿大公布的6月GDP不及预期,使得美元短线反弹,再度逼近95.00关口,最终收于94.70。

现货黄金周四转跌,亚市早盘开于1206.20美元/金衡盎司后金价短暂上涨,录得日内高点1207.55美元/金衡盎司后转跌,金价震荡下行。欧市金价反弹,多头上攻,触及高位后回落。美市金价跌幅加大,出现跳水行情,触及日内低点1195.95美元/金衡盎司后反弹,金价再度小幅上涨,终收于1199.40美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周四收涨0.41美元,或0.59%,报70.11美元/桶。因美国原油库存报告利多影响仍在发酵,同时伊朗制裁也继续为油价带来支撑,不过美元反弹限制了油价的上行空间。

美国股市在周四结束了连涨走势收低,因贸易不安情绪加重,投资者在劳工节长周末前的避险交易加速。其中基础材料、生活消费品和工业等下跌的板块带领股指走低。截至收盘,道琼工业指数下跌137.65点,或0.53%,至25,986.92点;标准普尔500指数下跌12.91点,或0.44%,至2,901.13点;纳斯达克指数收挫21.32点,或0.26%,至8,088.36点。

个股方面,苹果 AAPL.O 创下纪录收盘新高,上涨0.92%,此前公布将在9月12日发布新款iPhone。同时,沃尔玛公司 WMT上涨了0.48%,威讯通信公司 VZ涨0.33%。而卡特彼勒公司 CAT,下跌1.97%。耐克公司 NKE下跌1.68%,沃博联 WBA收盘时跌1.25%。

日本股市周四小幅收高,因贸易协商的积极进展支撑人气,但投资者在尾盘时段迅速了结获利。其中造船业、银行和化工、石油和塑料等上涨的板块带领股指走高。日经指数终场上涨0.09%或21.28点,收22,869.50点。

个股方面,创业板吸引买盘,新兴企业市场上涨1.04%,嘉斯达克市场上涨0.52%。权重股领涨,迅销上涨0.76%,软银集团涨0.84%。而矿业类股为涨幅第二大的板块,此前油价在周四延续涨势,因美国原油库存下降且伊朗和委内瑞拉的供应预计会受到影响。日本国际石油开发帝石上涨1.45%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收跌,最低探至110.941一线,全数回吐前一交易日升幅。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验110.600一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标指向111.500一线。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收跌,震荡交投于1.17一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.16100一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标看向1.17700一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜震荡收平,窄幅交投于1.30关口附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.28800一线。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.31000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收跌,失守1200关口。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价阻力目标指向1214一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑考验1190一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜延续收涨,小幅探高至70关口上方。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于69.40一线。上行方面,油价关键阻力位于71一线。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜高位回落收跌,一度下破26000关口后 收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标向下。后市来看,价格阻力目标考验26200一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25800一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜大幅收跌,一度从23065一线高位跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱缩减,RSI指标拐头向下。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22600一线,上方阻力位看向22900一线。

 

 

30 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

         

FOREX Newsletter

August 30, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Dollar gained against most currencies yesterday especially those in emerging markets

·      The Pound rallied after comments on Brexit by European Union negotiator Michel Barnier

·      The Single Currency was sharply lower against the British Pound yesterday

·      Market sentiment was supported by hopes that Canada will join the new trade agreement

It has been a week of good news in the financial markets and the record-breaking levels in U.S. stocks tell us that investors are pleased with the recent developments. Particularly the fact that the U.S reached a trade deal with Mexico, talks with Canada are going well and the EU is willing to work with the UK. It remains to be seen whether these talks will turn into paper agreements but the hope that it will have enough to drive currencies and equities sharply higher. As long as the positive headlines continue to flow in, the risk rally should continue. USD/JPY is finally participating in the move thanks to a stronger Q2 GDP report. Economists were looking for growth to be revised lower but instead, it was revised up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Today’s personal income and personal spending reports should also be stronger as earnings and retail sales increased last month. Sterling was the best performer yesterday gaining more than 1% against all of the major currencies. According to the European Union’s Chief Brexit negotiator Barnier, the EU is ready to offer the UK a deal that it hasn’t had with any other country. Coming hours after Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab complained about his availability for talks, the possibility of an unprecedented offer sent sterling sharply higher. GBP/USD broke out of a 5-day long consolidation to trade above 1.30 while EUR/GBP experienced its strongest one day decline in more than 2 months. Raab is heading back to Brussels on Friday to the resume negotiations with the goal of reaching an agreement by November. This type of news is exactly what sterling traders have been waiting for. The Euro pulled back and it came off its highs to hit a low of 1.1650 but with all of the good news, EURUSD found itself back at 1.17. The rally occurred despite weaker German consumer confidence and softer French consumer spending. One of the worst performing currencies yesterday was the Australian dollar.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL) Medium   -3.0% 1.6%
07:55 German Unemployment Change (000’s) (AUG) High   -8k -6k
07:55 German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (AUG) High   5.2% 5.2%
08:30 U.K Net Consumer Credit (JUL) Medium   1.5b 1.6b
08:30 U.K Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL) Medium   3.9b 3.9b
08:30 U.K Mortgage Approvals (JUL) Medium   65.0k 65.6k
12:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) High   2.0% 2.0%
12:30 Canada Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q) High   3.1% 1.3%
12:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN) High   2.3% 2.6%
12:30 U.S Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL) High   2.0% 1.9%
12:30 U.S Personal Income (JUL) Medium   0.4% 0.4%
12:30 U.S Personal Spending (JUL) Medium   0.4% 0.4%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 25) Medium   213k 210k
23:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG) Medium   -10 -10
23:30 Japan Jobless Rate (JUL) Medium   2.4% 2.4%

 

Euro

The single currency was flat to lower yesterday, with peripheral markets outperforming on a pick-up in risk appetite after Canada’s plans to rejoin NAFTA talks eased concerns about global trade. The U.S., Canada a, d Mexico have until Friday to reach a deal to update the North America Free Trade Agreement. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1650 and a high of 1.1708 before closing the day around 1.1706 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded lower against the U.S Dollar yesterday. On the release front, Japanese consumer confidence edged lower to 43.3, just below the estimate of 43.4 points. In the U.S, Preliminary GDP jumped 4.2%, beating the estimate of 4.1%. Pending Home Sales disappointed with a reading of -0.7%, well off the estimate of 0.3%. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.10 and a high of 111.80 before closing the day around 111.65 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound surged against the U.S Dollar yesterday after an official from the European Union indicated that progress has been made in the Brexit negotiations. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said Europe is prepared to offer an unprecedented partnership to the UK. The news had been positive for the currency. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2843 and a high of 1.3030 before closing the day at 1.3023 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar gained slightly against the U.S Dollar yesterday. Canada’s top trade negotiator praised Mexico’s trade concessions on autos and labor rights on Tuesday as she rejoined NAFTA talks, while U.S. lawmakers warned that a bilateral U.S.-Mexico trade deal would struggle to win approval in Congress. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2900 and a high of 1.2960 before closing the day at 1.2904 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has fallen sharply in yesterday’s trading session in response to news that Westpac Bank, Australia’s second-largest lender, has hiked mortgage rates for both owner-occupier and investor borrowers. The bank cited a “sustained increase in wholesale funding costs” as the reason behind the out-of-cycle move.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7273 and a high of 0.7347 before closing the day at 0.7297 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 65 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.55%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.64%.

   

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 1.08%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.58%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 29, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16956 1.17084 1.16505 1.1706 0.0013
USD/JPY 111.172 111.809 111.103 111.659 0.4870
GBP/USD 1.28663 1.30307 1.28435 1.30236 0.0154
USD/CHF 0.9757 0.97741 0.97003 0.97032 -0.0057
USD/CAD 1.29252 1.29606 1.29008 1.29048 -0.0025
EUR/JPY 130.034 130.825 129.56 130.721 0.7180
GBP/JPY 143.053 145.542 142.798 145.439 2.3410
CHF/JPY 113.911 115.089 113.707 115.043 1.1700
AUD/JPY 81.529 81.764 81.018 81.605 0.0480
EUR/GBP 0.90882 0.90898 0.89813 0.89846 -0.0098
EUR/CHF 1.14145 1.14215 1.13419 1.13597 -0.0055
GBP/CHF 1.25544 1.26644 1.25087 1.26393 0.0073

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1610 1.1630 1.1668 1.1688 1.1726 1.1746 1.1784
USD/JPY 110.53 110.82 111.24 111.52 111.94 112.23 112.65
GBP/USD 1.2714 1.2779 1.2901 1.2966 1.3088 1.3153 1.3276
USD/CHF 0.9604 0.9652 0.9678 0.9726 0.9751 0.9800 0.9825
USD/CAD 1.2824 1.2862 1.2884 1.2922 1.2943 1.2982 1.3003
EUR/JPY 128.65 129.10 129.91 130.37 131.18 131.63 132.44
GBP/JPY 140.90 141.85 143.64 144.59 146.39 147.34 149.13
CHF/JPY 112.76 113.23 114.14 114.61 115.52 116.00 116.90
AUD/JPY 80.41 80.72 81.16 81.46 81.91 82.21 82.65
EUR/GBP 0.8839 0.8910 0.8947 0.9019 0.9056 0.9127 0.9164
EUR/CHF 1.1248 1.1295 1.1327 1.1374 1.1407 1.1454 1.1486
GBP/CHF 1.2388 1.2448 1.2544 1.2604 1.2700 1.2760 1.2855

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-30

     
Market Summary
周三(8月29日)美元指数下跌,因两则数据掀起市场波澜。虽然最新出炉的美国二季度GDP修正值创下四年新高,为4.2%。但随后公布的新屋销售指数月率下降0.7%,低于前值0.9%和预期0.3%,延续了近几个月的下滑趋势,反映房市供应不足。这一降幅表明供应的限制和强劲的就业市场在推高价格。由于就业市场增长强劲,同时市场多年来供应不足,共同推高了房价,导致越来越多的潜在买家无法负担。最终美元指数收于94.55。此外,欧盟首席脱欧谈判官巴尼耶一句“欧洲准备向英国提供前所未有的合作伙伴关系”令英镑/美元多头备受鼓舞,飙升逾140点。

现货黄金周三上涨,亚市早盘开于1200.50美元/金衡盎司后金价短暂下挫,录得日内低点1200.20美元/金衡盎司后转涨,金价震荡上行。欧市金价陷入盘整,多空争夺激烈。美市多头加大进攻力度,空方有所退缩,金价录得日内高点1207.00美元/金衡盎司后转跌,终收于1206.35美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周三收涨1.20美元,或1.75%,报69.70美元/桶。因美国原油库存报告整体利多,同时伊朗原油出口预计因制裁重启而大幅下降,这也加剧了原油供应缺口扩大的风险,从而为油价带来有效提振。

美国股市在周三收高,其中科技、消费服务和石油和天然气等上涨的板块带领股指走高。道琼工业指数上涨60.55点,或0.23%,至26,124.57点;标准普尔500指数上升16.52点,或0.57%,至2,914.04点;纳斯达克指数上升79.65点,或0.99%,至8,109.69点。

个股方面,微软公司 MSFT上涨1.60%。同时,苹果公司 AAPL上涨了1.49%;维萨卡公司 V涨1.26%。马拉松油料公司 MRO,上涨5.17%;再生元制药公司 REGN收盘时涨4.25%。亚马逊公司 AMZN上升3.38%,领升非必需性消费类股 .SPLRCD ,亚马逊有望继苹果之后,成为第二家市值达到1万亿美元的美国公司。

日本股市周三收高,其中造船业、橡胶和汽车和零件等上涨的板块带领股指走高。日经指数终场上涨0.18%或41.03点,收22,854.50点。

个股方面,东京电子涨0.87%,爱德万测试涨1.95%,胜高攀升1.49%,思可林集团劲扬2.44%。而汽车股则涨跌不一,因美国和墨西哥之间达成北美自由贸易协议(NAFTA)修订协议,预计会影响美国以外汽车商的区域战略。丰田汽车涨0.60%,马自达跌0.46%,日产汽车小跌0.17%,本田汽车涨0.53%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜大幅收涨,最高探至111.800一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑考验111.100一线。上行方面,价格阻力目标进一步指向112关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收涨,一度触及日低至1.16505一线后反弹走高。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.16100一线。上行方面,价格阻力进一步看向1.17800一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜大幅收涨,上破1.30关口。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标大幅向上。后市看来,价格考验1.30关口支撑力度。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.31000一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收涨,持稳1200关口上方。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,金价阻力目标指向1216一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑考验1200关口。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜大幅收涨,最高探至69.74一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于67.50一线。上行方面,油价关键阻力位于70关口。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜高位震荡收涨,窄幅交投于26100一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标超买。后市来看,价格阻力目标进一步指向26300一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25900一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜反弹收涨,全数收复前一交易日跌幅并探高至22990一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22800一线,上方阻力位看向23000关口。

 

 

29 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

August 29, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      According to the Conference Board, in August consumer sentiment, hit its strongest level in 17 years

·      The Euro appreciated more than 4 cents in a move that took the pair from its 1-year low

·      The latest Brexit headlines suggest that negotiations aren’t going as well as the UK hopes

·      Canadian Foreign Minister is in Washington right now for high-stakes trade talks with the U.S

The U.S Dollar ended the session lower against some currencies and higher versus others, there’s no question that the sell-off is beginning to lose momentum. Consumer confidence beat expectations but higher interest rates caused house prices to rise less than anticipated and the stronger dollar contributed to the wider trade deficit. Revisions to second quarter GDP report is due for release today along with pending home sales but the dollar should take its cue from stocks, risk appetite and ultimately Canadian-US trade headlines. USD/JPY has been hovering above 111 since the beginning of the week. The only currency that has consistently performed worse than the dollar was the Japanese Yen and the only reason for that is the recovery in risk. If USD/JPY drops below 110.80, the next stop should be 110. In the past 2 weeks, we’ve seen a dramatic recovery in the euro. The single currency appreciated more than 4 cents in a move that took the pair from its 1-year low of 1.13 to a 3 week high of 1.1733. The recovery was driven by the decline in the U.S. dollar, improvement in risk appetite, softer U.S. economic reports, stronger German data and short covering. However, now that EUR/USD breached 1.17 and came within 17 pips of our 1.1750 target it may be time to start looking at selling euros. On a fundamental basis, the record-breaking moves in U.S stocks will boost business and consumer confidence. In fact according to the Conference Board, in August consumer sentiment hit its strongest level in 17 years. This positive attitude should translate into more spending especially after the confidence report showed more respondents preparing to make big-ticket purchases over the next 6 months. With more spending come more growth and healthier U.S. data. German data has also been decent as shown by German IFO report but the real problem for the euro is Italy. Italian 10-year bond yields hit 4-year highs yesterday reflecting renewed concerns about the country’s budget. Right now investors are looking at it as a localized problem as they’ve sold Italian bonds but not the euro. Sterling turned lower yesterday on the back of the recovery in the Dollar. The latest Brexit headlines also suggest that negotiations aren’t going as well as the UK hopes. Prime Minister May said a no deal Brexit is not the end the world.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (AUG) Medium   43.3 43.5
06:00 German GfK Consumer Confidence (SEP) Medium   10.6 10.6
06:45 French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) Medium   1.7% 1.7%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 24) Medium      
12:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (2Q) High   4.0% 4.1%
12:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q) High   3.0% 3.0%
12:30 U.S Personal Consumption (2Q S) Medium   3.9% 4.0%
12:30 U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q) Medium   2.0% 2.0%
14:00 U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium     -4.0%
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 24) Medium      
23:50 Japan Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) Medium   1.2% 1.8%

 

Euro

The single currency traded higher yesterday. Lending growth to euro zone companies and households held steady at a post-crisis high last month while an indicator of money circulating in the euro area, which often foreshadows future activity, slowed unexpectedly, the ECB said. Lending growth to non-financial corporations expanded by 4.1 percent in July. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1661 and a high of 1.1732 before closing the day around 1.1693 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded little changed yesterday. On the release front, BoJ Core CPI edged up to 0.5%, above the estimate of 0.3%. In the U.S, manufacturing and consumer confidence data was stronger than expected. CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 133.4, crushing the estimate of 126.6 points. Today, Japan releases consumer confidence. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.93 and a high of 111.33 before closing the day around 111.17 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound was unchanged yesterday. U.S manufacturing and consumer confidence data was stronger than expected. CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 133.4. Today, the U.S publishes Preliminary GDP and Pending Home Sales. With the negotiations over Brexit stalled, there is an increasing likelihood of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2859 and a high of 1.2930 before closing the day at 1.2870 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to a nearly three-month high on the prospect of Canada reaching a deal this week to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he believed the United States can reach a trade deal with Canada this week after coming to an agreement with Mexico. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2885 and a high of 1.2980 before closing the day at 1.2930 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar traded slightly lower. With the new Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison having filled most of the cabinet roles, attention should turn back to economics, commodities and global investor sentiment as the main driver of AUD this week. Research from Australian lender ANZ meanwhile suggests there is some evidence that businesses are reacting negatively to political uncertainty. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7319 and a high of 0.7360 before closing the day at 0.7332 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 73 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 22 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.51%.

 

Appendix

 

 

FOREX Closing Prices for August 28, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16772 1.17321 1.16611 1.1693 0.0017
USD/JPY 111.059 111.337 110.935 111.172 0.1130
GBP/USD 1.28922 1.293 1.28597 1.2870 -0.0021
USD/CHF 0.97938 0.98074 0.97434 0.97598 -0.0037
USD/CAD 1.2966 1.29802 1.2885 1.2930 -0.0036
EUR/JPY 129.706 130.251 129.625 130.003 0.3100
GBP/JPY 143.191 143.641 143.021 143.098 -0.0940
CHF/JPY 113.372 113.941 113.261 113.873 0.5440
AUD/JPY 81.595 81.744 81.369 81.557 -0.0570
EUR/GBP 0.90545 0.90967 0.90516 0.90824 0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.14372 1.14518 1.14144 1.14148 -0.0025
GBP/CHF 1.2627 1.26363 1.25554 1.25658 -0.0064

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1588 1.1624 1.1659 1.1695 1.1730 1.1766 1.1801
USD/JPY 110.56 110.75 110.96 111.15 111.36 111.55 111.76
GBP/USD 1.2773 1.2816 1.2843 1.2887 1.2913 1.2957 1.2984
USD/CHF 0.9669 0.9706 0.9733 0.9770 0.9797 0.9834 0.9861
USD/CAD 1.2788 1.2837 1.2883 1.2932 1.2978 1.3027 1.3074
EUR/JPY 129.04 129.33 129.67 129.96 130.29 130.59 130.92
GBP/JPY 142.25 142.63 142.87 143.25 143.49 143.87 144.11
CHF/JPY 112.76 113.01 113.44 113.69 114.12 114.37 114.80
AUD/JPY 80.99 81.18 81.37 81.56 81.74 81.93 82.12
EUR/GBP 0.9012 0.9032 0.9057 0.9077 0.9102 0.9122 0.9147
EUR/CHF 1.1365 1.1390 1.1402 1.1427 1.1440 1.1464 1.1477
GBP/CHF 1.2454 1.2505 1.2535 1.2586 1.2616 1.2667 1.2697

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

29 8月 2018

 Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Wednesday, August 29, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26085 2899.25 7578.25
+0.11% +0.06% +0.21%

U.S stocks were little changed yesterday, with the benchmark S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hovering at all-time highs, a day after the United States and Mexico reached an agreement on an overhaul of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The two countries agreed on Monday to overhaul NAFTA and U.S. officials expressed optimism a deal could be reached this week. The benchmark S&P 500 and the NASDAQ indexes started the session strongly to hit fresh all-time highs, as they did on Monday after the trade deal was announced, before pulling back. After the initial surge to the top of the range you tend to get a little bit of a pullback. You catch people taking profits at the all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 14.73 points, or 0.06 percent, the S&P 500 was down 1.00 points, or 0.03 percent and the NASDAQ was down 0.46 points, or 0.01 percent. Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were lower, though five of them were down less than 0.1 percent.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

Japan Consumer Confidence Index 05:00 43.3 43.5

        sep

German GfK Consumer Confidence 06:00 10.6 10.6

2Q

French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 06:45 1.7% 1.7%

aug

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00    

2Q

U.S Gross Domestic Product Price Index 12:30 3.0% 3.0%

2Q

U.S Personal Consumption 12:30 3.9% 4.0%

jul

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 14:00   -4.0%

aug

DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories 14:30    

jul

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) 23:50 1.2% 1.8%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.06% to hit a new 6-months high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walmart Inc., which rose 1.62% or 1.53 points to trade at 96.07 at the close. Meanwhile, Apple Inc. added 0.81% or 1.76 points to end at 219.70 and Cisco Systems Inc. was up 0.77% or 0.36 points to 46.95 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 0.72% or 2.53 points to trade at 351.21 at the close. Coca-Cola Company declined 0.70% or 0.32 points to end at 45.37 and United Technologies Corporation was down 0.64% or 0.86 points to 134.50.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index climbed 0.15%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Affirmed NV which rose 246.88% to 5.550, Asta Funding Inc. which was up 31.58% to settle at 3.75 and Brooks Automation Inc. which gained 30.91% to close at 39.60. The worst performers were Akcea Therapeutics Inc. which was down 25.33% to 24.73 in late trade, Regulus Therapeutics Inc. which lost 19.56% to settle at 0.246 and Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc. which was down 18.18% to 4.050 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday as some investors took profits on recent strong gains, but losses were limited the day after a U.S-Mexico trade agreement eased worries about tensions between the two countries. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 48 cents to $68.39 a barrel. Last week Brent marked a 5.6 percent gain, while WTI increased 4.3 percent. Market participants awaited industry data on U.S oil inventories that were expected to show a weekly drop in crude stocks. Official data is due today. Boosting market sentiment was news that the United States and Mexico agreed on Monday to overhaul the NAFTA. Canada’s top trade negotiator joins her Mexican and U.S. counterparts in Washington on Tuesday in a bid to remain part of the trilateral pact. Prices also drew support from findings of the monitoring committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Investors are more confident that supply should fall short of demand in the coming months.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold turned negative yesterday as U.S Treasuries rose after the United States and Mexico struck a trade deal, with analysts saying ongoing U.S-China tensions would continue to weigh. U.S Treasury yields rose across maturities to weekly highs as global trade war fears abated a day after the United States and Mexico reached agreement on an overhaul of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). On the margin, it’s not much, but real rates rose and that took some of the wind out of gold sails. The easing of trade tensions prompted investors to reduce safe-haven positions in U.S. government debt. Sales of long-term Treasuries, in particular, pressured prices and drove yields up more at the long end of the curve, indicating bullishness about the economic outlook. Spot gold lost 0.4 percent to $1,206.39 per ounce, earlier touching $1,214.28, its highest level since Aug. 10. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $1.60, or 0.1 percent, at $1,214.40 per ounce. Often purchased as a hedge against geopolitical risk, gold is highly sensitive to rising yields, because it pays no yield, yet costs to insure and store. In recent months, investors have sought safety from the trade disputes in U.S. Treasuries, which entails buying dollars. But a weaker U.S dollar kept gold supported yesterday, as it generally boosts demand for dollar-denominated commodities. The U.S.-Mexico deal pushed the dollar lower against a basket of major currencies as investors sought alternative assets and the greenback’s safe-haven appeal declined. The main trade dispute, meaning U.S.-China conflict, is still going on so this NAFTA deal is just a small aspect. Net short positions in COMEX gold contracts increased for a sixth straight week to a new record. Spot silver declined 0.2 percent to $14.82 an ounce, after hitting $14.99, a nearly two-week high, while platinum lost 1.1 percent to $790.74, after touching a two-week high of $810.

 

 

Traditional AgricultureCorn futures edged down yesterday to extend losses into a second session, with ample global supply keeping prices near their lowest in six weeks. Soybean prices have been weighed down amid an outbreak of African swine flu China that could threaten demand for animal feed.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, August 27, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26079 26153 26041 26085 11
S & P 500 SPM18 2899 2906 2894.25 2899.25 0.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7568 7596.75 7564 7578.25 10.5
Hang Seng HSH18 28454 28545 28197 28286 38
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22940 22980 22775 22775 -10
FTSE 100 FTH18 7621.5 7632 7587.5 7608 38.5
Gold GCJ18 1217.1 1220.4 1205.6 1206.9 -10.5
Silver SIK18 1483.5 1494 1459.5 1462.5 -22
Copper HGK18 270.75 274.55 269.05 272.2 1.5
Crude Oil CLK18 68.9 69.16 68.18 68.49 -0.39
Wheat WK18 500 504 494.25 498 -1.25
Soybeans SK18 835 836.5 820 820.5 -13.75
Corn CK18 345.5 347.25 340.5 341 -5.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25921 25981 26033 26093 26145 26205 26257
SPM18 2881.92 2888.08 2893.67 2899.83 2905.42 2911.58 2917.17
NDM18 7529.83 7546.92 7562.58 7579.67 7595.33 7612.42 7628.08
HSH18 27792 27995 28140 28343 28488 28691 28836
NKH18 22502 22638 22707 22843 22912 23048 23117
FTH18 7541.83 7564.67 7586.33 7609.17 7630.83 7653.67 7675.33
GCJ18 1186.73 1196.17 1201.53 1210.97 1216.33 1225.77 1231.13
SIK18 1415.50 1437.50 1450.00 1472.00 1484.50 1506.50 1519.00
HGK18 263.82 266.43 269.32 271.93 274.82 277.43 280.32
CLK18 67.08 67.63 68.06 68.61 69.04 69.59 70.02
WK18 483.75 489.00 493.50 498.75 503.25 508.50 513.00
SK18 798.33 809.17 814.83 825.67 831.33 842.17 847.83
CK18 331.83 336.17 338.58 342.92 345.33 349.67 352.08

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-29

     
Market Summary
周二(8月28日)美元指数持续下跌,但跌势已较昨日有所缓解。因美国和墨西哥达成贸易协议,市场风险情绪回升,美元因此承压。数据方面,日内公布的美国6月S&P/CS房价指数年率为6.31%,低于前值的6.51%。但美国8月咨商会消费者信心指数升至133.4,创下近18年新高,因消费者在近期对经济表现出更好的感觉,而对长期增长的乐观情绪有所减弱。受此提振,美元指数基本收复日内跌幅,终收于94.72。

现货黄金周二大幅下挫,亚市早盘开于1210.90美元/金衡盎司后金价小幅上涨后转跌,震荡下行,之后又小幅反弹。欧市金价继续上涨,录得日内高点1214.00美元/金衡盎司后转跌。美市金价出现跳水,直线坠落,下破1200关口,录得日内低点1199.35美元/金衡盎司后企稳,终收于1200.85美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周二收跌0.42元,或0.61%,报68.50美元/桶。因石油输出国组织(OPEC)增产行动仍在稳步推进,这令供应面担忧情绪有所增加,加上伊朗制裁仍未对油价带来稳固支撑。

美国股市在周二收高,其中消费服务、科技和金融等上涨的板块带领股指走高。道琼工业指数上涨14.38点,或0.06%,至26,064.02点;标准普尔500指数上升0.78点,或0.03%,至2,897.52点;纳斯达克指数上升12.14点,或0.15%,至8,030.04点。

个股方面,高通公司 QCOM股票大涨至一年高点,涨幅为3.62%。苹果公司 AAPL股票大涨至历史高点,拉升0.81%。思科系统公司 CSCO股票大涨至高点,涨幅为0.77%。 Affimed NV AFMD股票大涨至一年高点,涨幅为246.88%。布鲁克自动化BRKS股票大涨至高点,涨幅为30.91%。

日本股市周二收高,因先前美国和墨西哥达成贸易协议,提振了投资者的风险信心,并刺激汽车类股买盘。日经指数终场小涨0.06%或13.83点,收22,813.47点。

个股方面,丰田汽车涨0.86%。丰田扩大与优步的合作、将追加出资5亿美元,携手研发自动驾驶车。苹果液晶面板供货商Japan Display Inc大涨2.42%,收169日元。而夏普则下跌0.81%,收2,695日元,创4周来收盘新低水平。夏普睽违5年、重返可携式液晶电视市场,力拼拿下日本5成市占。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜微幅收涨,窄幅交投于111.100一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上。后市看来,价格支撑目标考验110.800一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力位于111.600一线,突破则进一步指向112关口。

 

EURUSD

 

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至1.17320一线后有所收窄。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.16100一线。上行方面,价格阻力进一步看向1.17700一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收低,横盘整理于1.28700一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格初步支撑依旧考验1.28000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.29700一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜回落收跌,从日高1214一线承压走低。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱温和,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,金价阻力目标指向1215一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑目标下看1190一线。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收跌,窄幅交投于68.60一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱温和,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于67.00一线。上行方面,油价关键阻力位于70关口。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收平,高位交投于26100一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上延伸逼近超买区。后市来看,价格阻力目标进一步指向26200一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25700一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜回落收跌,一度逼近23000关口后跳水。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向下。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22600一线,上方阻力位看向23000关口。

 

 

市场报告                     2018-08-28

     
Market Summary
周一(8月27日)美元指数下跌。因市场再起波澜,美墨达成自贸协议的消息大大提振市场。根据报导,美国与墨西哥正式达成贸易协议以取代NAFTA,协议料将于11月签署;而美国与加拿大也将展开谈判,美国总统特朗普称预计协议将很快达成。消息传来之后,美元指数下破95.00关口,终收于94.79。

现货黄金周一持续反弹,亚市早盘开于1206.20美元/金衡盎司后金价小幅上涨后转跌,震荡下行,涨跌不定。欧市金价继续下挫,录得日内低点1202.80美元/金衡盎司后反弹,多头上攻。美市金价再现直线拉升,金价跳涨,录得日内高点1212.20美元/金衡盎司后转跌又小幅反弹,终收于1210.85美元/金衡盎司。

国际原油周一收涨0.22元,或0.32%,报68.92美元/桶。因美墨贸易协议达成为原油等风险资产带来支撑。此外,美国油服公司贝克休斯上周五公布数据显示,截至8月24日当周,美国石油活跃钻井数锐减9座至860座,创为2016年5月以来最大单周降幅。

美国股市在周一收高,其中基础材料、工业和科技等上涨的板块带领股指走高。道琼工业指数收高259.29点,或1.01%,至26,049.64点;标准普尔500指数 上升22.05点,或0.77%,至2,896.74点;纳斯达克指数上升71.92点,或0.91%,至8,017.90点。

个股方面,高盛集团GS,上涨3.19%。同时,卡特彼勒公司CAT上涨了2.77%,陶氏杜邦公司DWDP涨2.31%。美国超威公司AMD,上涨5.34%,通用汽车公司GM涨4.83%,堪萨斯南方铁路KSU上升4.69%。

日本股市周一收高,因追随美股向好走势,除矿业、船运和航空板块之外全部上涨。汽车制造企业等出口商类股及科技类股领涨。日经指数终场上涨0.88%或197.87点,收22,799.64点。

个股方面,丰田汽车攀升2.0%,本田汽车上涨1.4%,东京电子涨2.0%,东电化上扬2.7%。防御设备制造商股票亦受追捧,因投资者认为特朗普先前突然取消国务卿访朝计划之后,地缘政治紧张局势可能升级。 IHI 大涨3.3%,细谷火工 涨2.9%,石川制作所收高0.2%,盘中一度大涨4.4%。

 

Technical  Analysis
USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜小幅收跌,交投于111关口附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱显现,RSI指标小幅向下。后市看来,价格支撑目标考验110.800一线。上行方面,价格初步阻力位于111.600一线,突破则进一步指向112关口。

 

EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜延续收涨,最高探至1.16922一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上延伸。后市看来,价格支撑考验1.16100一线。上行方面,价格阻力进一步看向1.17600一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜小幅收涨,窄幅交投于1.28700一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱微增,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市看来,价格初步支撑依旧考验1.28000一线。上行方面,价格阻力位于1.29600一线。

 

XAUUSD

从日线图上看,金价隔夜小幅收涨,高位交投于1208一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,金价阻力目标进一步指向1218一线。下行方面,金价初步支撑目标下看1200关口。

 

CL_

从日线图上看,油价隔夜小幅收涨,窄幅交投于68.80一线附近。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标小幅向上延伸。后市来看,油价初步支撑位于68.00一线。上行方面,油价关键阻力位于70关口。

 

DJ_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜大幅收涨,刷新新高至26078一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上延伸逼近超买区。后市来看,价格阻力目标进一步指向26200一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向25700一线。

 

NK_

从日线图上看,价格隔夜延续收涨,最高探至22895一线。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,价格初步支撑位考验22620一线,上方阻力位看向23000关口。

 

 

27 8月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Monday, August 27, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25797 2877.25 7496.75
+0.53% +0.65% +0.97%

U.S stocks rose Friday, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closing at records, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed the central bank’s strategy of gradually normalizing monetary policy, highlighting the strength in the economy and robust corporate results that have helped to support investment appetite for equities. The S&P 500 index added 17.71 points, or 0.6%, its first since record since Jan. 26. The NASDAQ climbed 67.52 points, or 0.9%, carving out its first all-time high since July 25. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 133.37 points, or 0.5%, 3.2% away from its record close on Jan. 26. For the week, the S&P logged a 0.9% gain—a second straight weekly rise. The NASDAQ advanced by 1.7% for the period, while the Dow booked a 0.5% climb. At the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Powell said he sees two risks surrounding rate hikes, which he outlined as “moving too fast and needlessly shortening the expansion, versus moving too slowly and risking a destabilizing overheating.”

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        jul

German Retail Sales (YoY)     3.0%

jul

China Industrial Profits (YoY) 01:30   20.0%

aug

German IFO Business Climate 08:00   101.7

aug

German IFO Expectations 08:00   98.2

aug

German IFO Current Assessment 08:00   105.3

aug

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits CHF 08:00    

jul

U.S Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 12:30   0.43

aug

U.S Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity 14:30   32.3

aug

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 23:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.52% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were DowDuPont Inc., which rose 1.61% or 1.10 points to trade at 69.21 at the close. Meanwhile, Visa Inc. added 1.48% or 2.10 points to end at 144.20 and Intel Corporation was up 1.45% or 0.68 points to 47.66 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 0.55% or 0.46 points to trade at 82.45 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declined 0.52% or 1.23 points to end at 235.11 and Walmart Inc. was down 0.24% or 0.23 points to 94.95.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.86% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Alliance MMA Inc. which rose 110.32% to 0.42, Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc. which was up 38.97% to settle at 5.420 and Geron Corporation which gained 28.78% to close at 5.190. The worst performers were Hibbett Sports Inc. which was down 30.19% to 20.52 in late trade, China Biologic Products Inc. which lost 15.85% to settle at 84.91 and TMSR Holding Company Ltd which was down 15.59% to 4.06 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices gained more than 1 percent on Friday, ending a run of weekly declines on signs that Iran sanctions may limit global supply and that a trade war may not curb China’s appetite for U.S crude. U.S crude was up 89 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $68.72. U.S crude rose more than 4 percent on the week, after seven consecutive declines, and Brent rose 5.3 percent after three weeks of falling prices. Concerns that an escalating trade war between China and the U.S. could slow economic growth and weigh on crude purchases eased slightly after sources told Reuters that China’s Unipec will resume purchases of U.S. crude oil in October, after a two-month halt due to the fight. Worries that Mexico’s incoming administration would not strike a bilateral agreement over NAFTA with the U.S. also weighed on the market, traders said. A dispute over opening up the oil and gas sector is weighing on the talks, Bloomberg reported, citing two people familiar with negotiations.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices rose on Friday as the Dollar came under pressure from clues about the direction of U.S monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which market watchers interpreted as dovish. The greenback weakened as Powell, speaking in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said a gradual approach to raising rates remained appropriate to protect the U.S. economy and keep job growth as strong as possible with inflation under control. It sounds like the Fed is starting to lean a little bit dovish and that is taking the wind out of the U.S. dollar’s sail now. Spot gold had increased 1.8 percent to $1,206.14 an ounce, heading for a 1.9 percent weekly gain. U.S gold futures for December delivery settled up $19.30, or 1.6 percent, at $1,213.30 per ounce. U.S political uncertainty, heightened by the legal woes of two of U.S. President Donald Trump’s former advisers this week, is keeping the dollar under pressure despite tighter U.S. monetary policy, analysts say. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, which could boost demand and prices. A Reuters survey published on Thursday showed analysts expecting U.S. rates to rise twice more this year and twice next year. The Fed next meets over Sept. 25-26. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can be costly to store and insure. Investor appetite for gold has been in the doldrums in recent months. Rate hikes, low inflation, rising equity markets and a strong dollar have significantly diminished the appeal of gold. Last week’s data showed hedge funds and money managers raising their net short position for the sixth straight week to another record in the week to Aug. 14. Spot silver was up 2 percent at $14.76 an ounce, barely changed from last week’s close. Copper rose on Friday, clocking its first weekly gain in four on a softer dollar, though worries about Chinese demand are expected to cap gains as the country’s trade dispute with the United States drags on.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures dropped for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, touching a one-month low on sluggish export demand for U.S wheat despite tightening global supplies. Corn and soybean futures stabilized on Friday after sharp declines.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, August 24, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25677 25826 25651 25797 129
S & P 500 SPM18 2858 2877.25 2856.25 2877.25 19.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7426.25 7499 7422.25 7496.75 72.5
Hang Seng HSH18 27538 27776 27443 27602 -85
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22460 22590 22435 22575 165
FTSE 100 FTH18 7551 7581.5 7541.5 7569.5 33
Gold GCJ18 1191.5 1215 1189.2 1213.5 21.9
Silver SIK18 1445.5 1484 1444 1481 35
Copper HGK18 264.5 271.65 264.1 270.45 6.1
Crude Oil CLK18 67.86 69.28 67.75 68.78 0.96
Wheat WK18 519.75 521.25 512.5 515.5 -6.5
Soybeans SK18 841.75 848 841 842.75 0.75
Corn CK18 346.25 349.5 346 349 2.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25515 25583 25690 25758 25865 25933 26040
SPM18 2842.25 2849.25 2863.25 2870.25 2884.25 2891.25 2905.25
NDM18 7369.58 7395.92 7446.33 7472.67 7523.08 7549.42 7599.83
HSH18 27105 27274 27438 27607 27771 27940 28104
NKH18 22322 22378 22477 22533 22632 22688 22787
FTH18 7506.83 7524.17 7546.83 7564.17 7586.83 7604.17 7626.83
GCJ18 1171.00 1180.10 1196.80 1205.90 1222.60 1231.70 1248.40
SIK18 1415.33 1429.67 1455.33 1469.67 1495.33 1509.67 1535.33
HGK18 258.27 261.18 265.82 268.73 273.37 276.28 280.92
CLK18 66.40 67.07 67.93 68.60 69.46 70.13 70.99
WK18 502.83 507.67 511.58 516.42 520.33 525.17 529.08
SK18 832.83 836.92 839.83 843.92 846.83 850.92 853.83
CK18 343.33 344.67 346.83 348.17 350.33 351.67 353.83

 

  

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

27 8月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

August 27, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Investors focused on Powell comment that there’s no sign of inflation accelerating

·      The Single Currency climbed to its strongest level in 3 weeks on Friday

·      Sterling extended its recovery but the lackluster rally signals that investors are worried about Brexit

·      NZD was supported by this week’s stronger than expected second quarter retail sales

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole sent the U.S Dollar lower against all of the major currencies on Friday. Powell confirmed that further gradual tightening will be needed but investors were not impressed and instead focused on his comment that there’s no sign of inflation accelerating and no elevated risk of it overheating. This along with the Fed minutes which showed concerns about trade, housing and emerging markets casted doubt on a December. Every piece of U.S data released last week also deteriorated with durable goods, existing and new home sales falling. Revisions to Q2 GDP, personal income, spending, Chicago PMI and the trade balance are due for release this week but we don’t think they will help the Dollar. Looking ahead it’s the end of the summer in Europe and North America and the week before a major holiday in the U.S. Most of the major event risks are behind us and with minimal data on the calendar liquidity will truly subside. Euro climbed to its strongest level in 3 weeks. Despite the persistent rise in Italian yields, U.S Dollar flows and short covering has taken the pair sharply higher. Sterling also extended its recovery but the lackluster rally signals that investors are still worried about Brexit. They are skeptical of the recent progress and unhappy about the reports that the October deadline for a Brexit deal could be pushed out by 4 weeks. Nonetheless, Michel Barnier the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator said negotiations have reached the final stage and they will hold continuous talks from here forward. Barnier’s eagerness to cooperate is a breath of fresh air but the Irish border and other issues are difficult ones and until real agreements are made, investors could refrain from buying the currency. There were no major economic reports released last week and nothing substantial on the calendar last week. Technically, GBP/USD is in a downtrend as long as it remains below 1.2950. The New Zealand and Canadian Dollars also extended higher. NZD was supported by this week’s stronger than expected second quarter retail sales and a smaller than anticipated trade deficit but the data isn’t great because the annual trade deficit hit its largest level since March 2009. Dairy prices also fell further, which could reduce the value of dairy exports going forward. Central Bank Governor Orr said this past week their biggest challenge is getting inflation to rise and they haven’t ruled out cutting interest rates to achieve its target. Even if NZD/USD continues to recover, it may find it difficult to rise above the July high of .6860.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium     3.0%
01:30 China Industrial Profits (YoY) (JUL) Low     20.0%
08:00 German IFO Business Climate (AUG) Medium     101.7
08:00 German IFO Expectations (AUG) Medium     98.2
08:00 German IFO Current Assessment (AUG) Medium     105.3
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (AUG 24) Low      
12:30 U.S Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JUL) Low     0.43
14:30 U.S Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (AUG) Low     32.3
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 26) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency has been somewhat noisy during the session but in a good way. The market had beaten this currency down but it seems like fears about the Turkish lira and contagion are starting to drop off a bit. That’s a good sign, and it seems as if the attitude of traders around the world is the step back a bit. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1533 and a high of 1.1638 before closing the day around 1.1623 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair retreated further from 2-week highs amid a US dollar sell-off following Fed’s Powell speech at Jackson Hole. Earlier rose to 111.48, the strongest level since August 6 and recently printed a fresh daily low at 111.10. It was hovering near the lows, with the intraday bias pointing to the downside.  Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.08 and a high of 111.46 before closing the day around 111.25 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has reversed direction on Friday and posted gains. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2845, up 0.26% on the day. On the release front, the number of mortgages approved by major UK banks dropped to 39.6 thousand, shy of the estimate of 40.6 thousand. Brexit continues to hover over the British economy like a dark cloud. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2797 and a high of 1.2879 before closing the day at 1.2849 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened on Friday, recovering from an earlier one-week low as oil prices rose and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell helped boost stocks and weaken the greenback. Powell outlined a steady, surprise-free course for monetary policy in a speech at the annual central banker’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3008 and a high of 1.3101 before closing the day at 1.3035 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar got a little boost at the end of the week as its home country got a new Prime Minister, but AUD/USD remains severely battered and, indeed, at lows not seen since the start of 2016.  Former Treasurer Scott Morrison has replaced Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Liberal Party which governs in a coalition. Turnbull lost the confidence of his party so Morrison becomes Australia’s sixth Prime Minister since 2007. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7236 and a high of 0.7342 before closing the day at 0.7327 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.71%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.27%.

  

Aussie-Yen

 

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.09%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.46%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.01%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 24, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15376 1.16384 1.15334 1.16232 0.0085
USD/JPY 111.236 111.468 111.085 111.252 -0.0180
GBP/USD 1.28137 1.28792 1.27976 1.28493 0.0038
USD/CHF 0.9857 0.98635 0.98091 0.98319 -0.0028
USD/CAD 1.30791 1.3101 1.30089 1.30359 -0.0043
EUR/JPY 128.375 129.396 128.366 129.298 0.9060
GBP/JPY 142.563 143.214 142.493 142.941 0.3910
CHF/JPY 112.842 113.279 112.762 113.176 0.3560
AUD/JPY 80.614 81.67 80.567 81.508 0.8820
EUR/GBP 0.90036 0.90503 0.89999 0.90471 0.0041
EUR/CHF 1.13776 1.14273 1.13721 1.1427 0.0049
GBP/CHF 1.26289 1.26479 1.26071 1.26322 0.0001

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1453 1.1493 1.1558 1.1598 1.1663 1.1703 1.1768
USD/JPY 110.69 110.89 111.07 111.27 111.45 111.65 111.83
GBP/USD 1.2723 1.2760 1.2805 1.2842 1.2886 1.2924 1.2968
USD/CHF 0.9752 0.9780 0.9806 0.9835 0.9861 0.9889 0.9915
USD/CAD 1.2904 1.2957 1.2996 1.3049 1.3088 1.3141 1.3180
EUR/JPY 127.61 127.99 128.64 129.02 129.67 130.05 130.70
GBP/JPY 141.83 142.16 142.55 142.88 143.27 143.60 143.99
CHF/JPY 112.35 112.56 112.87 113.07 113.38 113.59 113.90
AUD/JPY 79.72 80.15 80.83 81.25 81.93 82.35 83.03
EUR/GBP 0.8964 0.8982 0.9015 0.9032 0.9065 0.9083 0.9115
EUR/CHF 1.1335 1.1354 1.1390 1.1409 1.1446 1.1464 1.1501
GBP/CHF 1.2569 1.2588 1.2610 1.2629 1.2651 1.2670 1.2692

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.