29 6月 2018

Daily  Market View

             

   Daily  Market View

  Friday, June 29, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24225 2719.50 7060.50
+0.41% +0.62% +0.79%

U.S stock-market indexes closed higher yesterday, with broad-based gains led by a rally in financials and technology sectors. The S&P 500 financials sector rose nearly 1% and snapped a 13-day slump, its longest losing streak ever. The S&P 500 index rose 16.68 points, a rise of 0.6%. The NASDAQ added 58.60 points, or 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 98.46 points, a gain of 0.4%. The blue-chip average remained below its 200-day moving average as it came off its lowest close since early May. Equities have been volatile, with major indexes seeing big swings in both directions, often in the same session, and usually in response to changing headlines about trade policy. However, they remain in the fairly tight trading range that indexes have been mired in for months. Thus far this week, the Dow is off 1.4%, the S&P has lost 1.6%, and the NASDAQ has lost 2.5%. For the second quarter, the Dow is up 0.5%, the S&P has gained 2.9%, and the NASDAQ is up 6.2%. For 2018, the Dow has lost 2%, the S&P has gained 1.6%, and the NASDAQ has surged 8.7%.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

may

German Retail Sales (YoY) 06:00 1.8% 1.2%

jun

German Unemployment Change (000’s) 07:55 -8k -11k

jun

German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. 07:55 5.2% 5.2%

1Q

U.K Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 08:30 1.2% 1.2%

jun

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 09:00 1.0% 1.1%

apr

Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 12:30 2.6% 2.9%

may

U.S Personal Spending 12:30 0.4% 0.6%

may

U.S PCE Core (YoY) 12:30 1.9% 1.8%

jun

U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager 13:45 60.0 62.7
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 3.14% or 1.55 points to trade at 50.86 at the close. Meanwhile, International Business Machines added 1.86% or 2.56 points to end at 140.04 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was up 1.64% or 1.69 points to 104.93 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, which fell 1.32% or 3.27 points to trade at 244.90 at the close. Walmart Inc. declined 1.19% or 1.03 points to end at 85.86 and General Electric Company was down 0.93% or 0.13 points to 13.83.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index added 0.79% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were MagneGas Corp which rose 51.92% to 0.562, VivoPower International PLC which was up 61.38% to settle at 2.34 and Leading Brands Inc. which gained 28.07% to close at 1.460. The worst performers were Arsanis Inc. which was down 78.01% to 4.00 in late trade, China Advanced Construction Materials which lost 29.79% to settle at 4.950 and Differential Brands Group Inc. which was down 26.61% to 4.000 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices climbed yesterday, with U.S. crude hitting a three-and-a-half year high, bolstered by supply concerns due to U.S sanctions that could cause a large drop in crude exports from Iran. Crude futures rose 69 cents, nearly 1 percent, to settle at $73.45 a barrel. It reached $74.03 earlier in the session, the highest since Nov. 26, 2014. The United States this week demanded countries halt imports of Iranian oil from November; a hardline position the Trump administration hopes will cut off funding to Tehran. Yesterday, officials said they would work with countries on a case-by-case basis. China, the biggest importer of Iran’s oil, has not committed to the U.S. position. The U.S. demands follow a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week to increase production to try to moderate oil prices that have rallied more than 40 percent over the last year.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold fell to its lowest in more than six months yesterday as the dollar held near a one-year high, propelled by mounting pressure from a U.S.-driven trade dispute that has led investors to dump equities. Global equities slipped to their lowest in almost three months, buffeted again after U.S. President Donald Trump and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow outlined plans to clamp down on Chinese acquisitions of sensitive American technologies. The trade tensions pushed the dollar to test a one-year high against a currency basket. A strong dollar makes dollar-priced gold costlier for non U.S. investors and while falling equities, seen as risky assets, usually help safe-haven gold, they have failed to do so this time. There is some safe-haven demand going into gold but not as much as is going elsewhere, like the dollar or treasuries or safe-haven currencies like the franc. Spot gold was flat at $1,250.80 an ounce. Earlier, it touched $1,248.21, its lowest since mid-December.  U.S. gold futures for August delivery dropped 0.3 percent at $1,252.70 an ounce. Investors are positioning for a potentially fraught meeting of European Union leaders to discuss issues such as migration, Brexit and trade. They are also looking for indications on the survival prospects for the fractious new German coalition. Nowadays, there is no safe-haven appeal for gold; people are tracking other assets as safe havens. In a nod to dollar bulls, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren on Wednesday said the central bank should continue to raise interest rates gradually to lower the risk of a major policy error. The dollar index’s strength is mainly powered by hopes for higher rates and rising yields and there seems to be no change in this any time soon.  Indicating falling demand for gold, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped 0.36 percent to 821.69 tonnes on Wednesday. In other precious metals, spot silver was 0.3 percent higher at $16.10 an ounce. In the prior session, it touched its lowest since mid-December at $15.94.

 

 

 

Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

Wheat futures edged lower falling for four in five sessions as ample global supplies and pressure from harvest of the U.S winter crop weighed on the market.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, June 28, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24135 24292 23976 24225 81
S & P 500 SPM18 2705 2726.25 2693 2719.5 13.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6988.25 7075.5 6955.75 7060.5 59.5
Hang Seng HSH18 28184 28383 27959 28265 95
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22175 22275 22015 22245 0
FTSE 100 FTH18 7530 7594.5 7512 7585.5 74
Gold GCJ18 1253.5 1255.5 1247 1249.8 -4.3
Silver SIK18 1603 1608 1586.5 1597.5 -7
Copper HGK18 297.8 298.1 292.95 295.65 -2.45
Crude Oil CLK18 72.23 73.99 72.17 73.35 0.98
Wheat WK18 487.5 492.25 482.5 484 -4.75
Soybeans SK18 871.5 874.75 864.75 867.25 -6.25
Corn CK18 360.75 361.25 353.75 `355.00 -7.25

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23721 23848 24037 24164 24353 24480 24669
SPM18 2666.33 2679.67 2699.58 2712.92 2732.83 2746.17 2766.08
NDM18 6865.92 6910.83 6985.67 7030.58 7105.42 7150.33 7225.17
HSH18 27598 27778 28022 28202 28446 28626 28870
NKH18 21822 21918 22082 22178 22342 22438 22602
FTH18 7451.00 7481.50 7533.50 7564.00 7616.00 7646.50 7698.50
GCJ18 1237.53 1242.27 1246.03 1250.77 1254.53 1259.27 1263.03
SIK18 1565.17 1575.83 1586.67 1597.33 1608.17 1618.83 1629.67
HGK18 287.88 290.42 293.03 295.57 298.18 300.72 303.33
CLK18 70.53 71.35 72.35 73.17 74.17 74.99 75.99
WK18 470.50 476.50 480.25 486.25 490.00 496.00 499.75
SK18 853.08 858.92 863.08 868.92 873.08 878.92 883.08
CK18 344.58 349.17 352.08 356.67 359.58 364.17 367.08

 

  Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

证券 CFD 亚洲                2018-06-29

 

 
市场综述
日本股市周五(6月29日)小幅上涨,因亚洲股市从九个月低点反弹,日元兑美元走软也提供了支撑。日经指数本周仍下跌0.95%,本周有关美国及其主要贸易伙伴国之间贸易冲突的疑虑打击投资者冒险意愿。截至收盘,日经225指数收盘涨0.15%至22,304.51点,盘中一度跌至22,145.48点低位。东证股价指数涨0.23%报1,730.89点。

日股33个分类指数中有22个上涨,医药和食品等防御类股领涨;油煤产品类股下跌,因原油价格从三年半高位回落。夏普跳涨15.19%,百分比涨幅居大盘之冠,因该公司宣布取消发行不超过20亿美元新股的计划,称中美贸易摩擦加大了股市的波动性。此举缓解了股票稀释疑虑。

港股方面,今日早盘,恒指低开高走,三大股指集体涨超1%。午后恒指涨幅进一步扩大,一度高见28962.29点。截至收盘,恒指涨1.61%,报28955.11点;国企指数涨1.88%,报11073点;红筹指数涨2.85%,报4376.51点。今日为港股月结,季结及半年结日,恒指指数月跌4.97%,半年跌3.22%。

个股方面,今日医药股、科网股、地产股走高。其中,龙头房企融创涨9.8%,碧桂园涨11.29%,中国恒大涨8.58%。今年以来,蓝筹股是要集团暴涨51%,为今年表现最佳蓝筹;舜宇光学涨46.89%,中石化涨30.46%,中海油涨23.39%。

技术分析
NK_

观察SGX日本225股指期货CFD4H图,日内价格震荡走跌,一度触及22120一线后反弹。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱温和,RSI指标走平。后市来看,价格关键阻力目标22500一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑考验22000一线。

 

HS_

产品 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价
HS_ 28277 28761 28247 28724

观察香港50股指期货CFD日线图,价格日内反弹收涨,最高探至28761一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,RSI指标向上。后市来看,价格初步阻力指向29100一线。下行方面,价格支撑目标考验28000关口。

 

                        2018-06-29

 

 
市场综述
周五(6月29日)亚市盘中,美元指数大幅回落跌破95整数关,最低至94.73。因欧盟峰会达成移民协议大幅提振欧元。受此影响,市场风险情绪回归,非美货币普遍上涨。分析师指出,随着其他主要央行开始在利率正常化方面赶上美联储,全球经济增长面临的威胁得到遏制,美元不太可能进一步走强。北京时间周五20:30将公布美国个人支出、PCE通胀等数据,这些数据都是美联储加息的重要参考依据,如果公布的数据好于预期,那么美元指数晚间将很有可能再度收复95关口并继续走高,反之,美指可能会随着美债收益率的回落而展开回调,美元指数短期内测试96关口的希望也将破灭。

英镑方面,英镑/美元周五亚市盘中上涨,最高至1.31277。英国公布第一季GDP公布值为0.2%,优于市场预期的0.1%。另外因欧盟达成移民协议提振了欧元以及英镑,此外美元指数大跌也是使得英镑的涨幅进一步扩大。市场认为,鉴于欧盟领导人淡化英国脱欧取得进展的预期,且英国脱欧问题在峰会议程上算不上最重要的,分析师认为英镑不太可能从峰会得到显著提振。考虑到下周的内阁会议以及北爱尔兰边界仍构成问题,两天的峰会似乎难以达成什么共识。未来英国脱欧谈判缺乏进展将可能会导致英镑走弱。

日元方面,美元/日元周五亚市盘中上涨,最高至110.775。亚市早盘日本公布5月失业率,公布值为2.2%,低于4月以及市场预期的2.5%,另外因欧盟峰会达成移民协议,这使得市场避险情绪快速降温。据消息显示,欧盟领导人已经达成移民协议,受此影响,风险资产普遍提振,避险资产如日元等货币回落。

欧元方面,欧元/美元周四亚市盘中上涨,最高至1.16650。欧盟领导人在峰会上就移民问题达成协议!据外媒报道,欧盟各成员国领导人在峰会上就移民问题达成协议,避免欧盟峰会出现危机。欧盟官员表示,领导人同意新的地中海移民接纳中心将由欧盟成员国以自愿为基础进行管理。法国总统马克龙表示,欧盟领导人同意就移民问题采取一致的举措,欧洲各国的合作带来了今天的胜利,不过马克龙预计欧洲面临的移民压力还将持续很长时间。晚些时间欧元区将公布6月消费者物价指数(年率),分析师预计数据公布对于目前欧元区影响不大。

技术分析
EURUSD

从4小时图上看,欧元/美元日内上涨。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标位于平衡区50上方。后市来看,价位将上涨,汇价阻力目标指向 1.17000一线。下行方面,汇价初步支撑考验1.15600一线。

 

USDJPY

从4小时图上看,美元/日元日内上涨。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱紧缩,RSI指标位于平衡区50上方。后市来看,价位将上涨,汇价阻力位考验111.300。下行方面,汇价支撑看向110.100一线。

 

 

证券 CFD 欧美                   2018-06-29

 

产品 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价
DJ_ 24135 24292 23976 24218
SP_ 2705.00 2726.25 2693.00 2719.00
ND_ 6998.00 7075.50 6955.75 7059.50
FT_ 7531.0 7595.5 7513.0 7583.5
市场综述
美国股市周四随着银行和科技股领涨三大股指,美国股市从早先的跌势中反弹。道琼斯工业平均指数反弹98.46点,收于24216.05点,此前该指数曾短暂下跌100点。标准普尔500指数收高0.62%,报2,716.31点。纳斯达克综合指数收盘上涨0.79%,至7503.68点。

个股方面,波音成为表现最好的道指成份股。标普500指数的11大组成板块中,金融、科技与电讯板块涨幅领先。亚马逊股价收高2.47%,该公司宣布将收购在线药房初创公司PillPack,从而进军医疗保健市场。摩根大通、高盛、花旗集团、摩根士丹利和美国银行的股价均上涨逾1%,提振了金融类股。在周四之前,银行板块已经连续13个交易日下跌。

英国股市周四报收于7615.63点,比前一交易日下跌6.06点,跌幅为0.08%。欧洲三大股指当天全线下跌,其他两大主要股指方面,法国巴黎股市指数报收于5275.64点,跌幅为0.97%;德国法兰克福股市指数报收于12177.23点,跌幅为1.39%。

个股方面,当天伦敦股市成分股中烟草类个股领涨,位于涨幅前五位的个股分别为:英美烟草股价上涨3.85%,希尔制药股价上涨3.10%,烟草集团帝国品牌公司股价上涨2.83% ,在线餐饮外卖公司JUST EAT股价上涨2.07%,水务公司Severn Trent股价上涨1.62%。而成分股中资源类个股则领跌,位于跌幅前五位的个股分别为:软件和信息服务商微聚国际股价下跌3.70%,投资公司梅尔罗斯工业公司股价下跌3.16%,化学品公司庄信万丰股价下跌2.96%,嘉能可股价下跌2.80%,在线零售商Ocado集团股价下跌2.73%。

 

技术分析
DJ_

从DJ_日线图上看,价格隔夜上涨,最高探至24292一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标上行至37。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标指向24500一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向24000一线。

 

 SP_

从SP_日线图上看,价格隔夜上涨,最高探至2726.25一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标上行至44。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标指向2740.00一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向2700.00一线。

 

ND_

从ND_日线图上看,价格隔夜上涨,最高探至7075.50一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标上行。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向7140.00一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向7000.00一线。

 

 FT_

从FT_日线图上看,价格隔夜上涨,最高探至7595.5一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,快线与慢线拉近间距,RSI指标向上延伸。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向7680.0一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向7540.0一线。

 

商品 CFD 日报                   2018-06-29

市场综述
周四(6月28日)美元指数从高位回落,虽因美联储和其他主要发达经济体央行的货币政策分化,美元指数一度上涨至95.54为去年7月中旬以来的新高。但美国数据意外表现疲弱,最终报收于95.28 。日内公布的美国GDP终值以及初请数据均表现不及预期,且前者的表现与美国总统特朗普和财长努钦近日言论相悖。

现货黄金周四持续下挫,美市盘中最低下探至 1245.70 美元/金衡盎司。数据方面,日内公布的上周初请失业救济金人数为22.7万人,略高于前值的21.8万人。初请失业金人数增幅大于预期,而失业金申请人数已连续四周下降,报告中称趋势仍与劳工市场收紧保持一致。美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值为2%,低于前值的2.2%。个人消费支出的表现录得0.9%,是近5年来最差水平,表明市场对贸易战的恐慌,给未来美国经济前景带来阴影。有分析师指出,美元可能会继续走强,受到利率和债券收益率走高的带动,都是导致黄金变得没那么吸引人的关键原因。

国际原油周四收涨0.69美元,报73.16美元/桶。因美国原油库存报告的利好影响仍在发酵,同时伊朗原油出口危机也有效抵消了石油输出国组织(OPEC)增产带来的逆风因素。此外,根据美国油服公司公布的数据显示,美国石油活跃钻井数减少1座至862座,连续12周增加后首次录得下降。本月迄今,美国石油活跃钻井数仅增加3座,为3月份减少2座以来最小月度增幅,印证了分析师认为美国石油活跃钻井数增加潜力已经耗尽的看法。

芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货周四小幅收跌,因美国中西部作物带近期迎来充沛降雨后,今年美豆丰产预期令市场进一步承压。CBOT 8月大豆期货合约收跌6-1/4美分,报每蒲式耳8.66-3/4美元。

芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)玉米期货周四小幅收涨,因美国农业部发布的周度出口销售数据优于预期。目前市场在静候周五美国政府发布报告,预计报告将显示玉米播种面积增加,库存充裕。报每蒲式耳3.54-1/4美元。

芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)小麦期货周四收低,因美国冬麦收割加速,以及在周五美国农业部(USDA)作物报告出炉前交易商轧平头寸,对小麦市场带来压力。CBOT 9月软红冬麦期货收低5美分,结算价报每蒲式耳4.83-1/2美元。

COMEX期铜周四下跌,报收于297.40美分/磅。因担心美国政府在限制中国投资问题上发出矛盾信号,令美中贸易紧张局势存在较大变数而拖累经济增长和工业金属需求。

技术分析
XAUUSD

日线图显示,金价隔夜下跌,最低探至1245.70。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标于超卖区22。后市来看,上行方面,金价初步阻力考验1255.00一带。下行方面,金价目标支撑考验1240.00一带。

 

XAGUSD

日线图显示,银价隔夜震荡收跌,最低探至15.893。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标接近36。后市来看,上行方面,银价初步阻力考验16.150一带,下行方面,银价目标支撑考验15.850一带。

 

CL_

日线图显示,油价隔夜上涨,最高探至73.99。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,快线与慢线趋势向上,RSI指标上行至超买区下方。后市来看,上行方面,油价初步阻力考验74.50一带,下行方面,油价目标支撑考验72.50一带。

 

 HG_

日线图显示,铜价隔夜下跌,最低探至292.85。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标下行至超卖区上方。后市来看,上行方面,铜价初步阻力考验300.00一带,下行方面,铜价目标支撑考验293.00一带。

 

                           2018-06-29

   
市场综述
周四(6月28日)日内公布的数据显示,美国至6月23日当周初请失业金人数录得22.7万人,高于预期22万人,而美国财长努钦周三曾表示对美国债务/GDP比例感到安心,但美国实际GDP年化季率公布值2.0%,不及预测值的2.2%,与财长努钦近日言论相悖。整体数据意外令人失望,不过在数据出炉后,美元指数波动不大,仍维持在95.00关键关口之上。

欧元方面,欧元/美元早盘开于1.15524后于区间内震荡,而日内公布的数据显示,欧元区经济景气指数公布值112.3,好于预测值112.0;欧元区工业景气指数公布值6.9,好于预测值6.5;欧元区消费者信心指数公布值-0.5,与预测值一致,在数据公布之后,欧元/美元开始一路走高,与此同时,令人失望的美国一季度GDP数据更是让欧元/美元一度反弹至1.16000关口附近,录得日内高点1.15991。不过随后欧元/美元的走势因爱尔兰总理而遭到拖累,自1.16000关口处下跌至1.15500一带,终收于1.15673。

英镑方面,欧盟在布鲁塞尔举行夏季峰会,就在峰会召开之际,爱尔兰总理称,必须开始为不大可能出现的英国在达不成协议的情况下离开欧盟的情境做准备,而爱尔兰不会为硬边境作准备。在爱尔兰总理的讲话之后,市场对英国脱欧忧虑的升温,再加上美元指数企稳于95关口上方进一步加强了英镑的跌势,英镑/美元短线急挫,最低跌至1.30483。不过随后,英国央行首席经济学家霍尔丹称,即使加息25个基点,英国货币政策状况依旧史无前例的极度宽松;为加息25个基点投票“既不令人惊讶也不会感到激进”。受霍尔丹言论提振,英镑/美元自低位急剧反弹约60点,至1.30900一带,终收于1.30765。

 

技术分析
EURUSD

从日线图上看,欧元/美元隔夜收出阳线。技术指标上,EMA(9,15,30)呈空头排列,MACD看涨动能柱微缩,快线及慢线位于零轴下方,并交叠在一起,RSI指标位于平衡区39。后市看来,价格阻力初步考验1.16000一线。下行方面,价格关键支撑位1.15000一线。

 

USDJPY

从日线图上看,美元/日元隔夜收出阳线。技术指标上,EMA(9,15,30)呈现多头排列,MACD看跌动能柱微缩,快线及慢线位于零轴上方,并交叠在一起,RSI指标位于平衡区57。后市看来,价格阻力目标依旧考验111.000一线。下行方面,价格关键支撑位110.000一线。

 

GBPUSD

从日线图上看,英镑/美元隔夜收出阴线。技术指标上,EMA(9,15,30)呈空头排列,MACD快线及慢线位于零轴下方,并呈下行趋势,RSI指标位于超卖区27。后市看来,价格阻力目标依旧考验1.31000一线。下行方面,价格关键支撑位1.30100一线。

 

28 6月 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

FOREX Newsletter

June 28, 2018

 

     
Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar rose broadly yesterday, including against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen

·      Sterling weakened as imminent Brexit talks and doubts the BOE will raise interest rates this year

·      The euro fell from the threat of a political crisis in Germany and uncertainty over EU summit

·      Despite easing in trade tensions, the trade-sensitive Australian dollar remained under pressure

 

The U.S dollar rose sharply against its rivals yesterday, as a rout of safe-haven currencies prompted traders to pile into the greenback after the White House softened its stance on restricting foreign investment. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.48% to 94.81. U.S President Donald Trump said he would back Congress’ passage of the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA), which would expand the powers of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), helping it combat alleged theft of U.S. intellectual property by China. The decision to back CFIUS not the somewhat harsher International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 – which would have allowed Trump to unilaterally impose restrictions – sparked risk appetite, sending safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc sharply lower against the greenback. USD/JPY rose 0.25% to Y110.34, while USD/CHF rose 0.50% 0.9962. Mixed U.S. economic data showing an unexpected narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit and weaker durable goods orders did little to curb demand for the dollar. The Commerce Department said yesterday Core Durable Goods Orders fell 0.3% last month, missing economist forecast for a 0.5% rise. The US trade deficit narrowed to $64.85 billion, well below economists’ forecasts of $68.9 billion, from a revised $67.34 billion. The dollar’s move higher was also supported by a slump in both the euro and sterling as the latter was weighed down by Brexit angst, and uncertainty as to whether the Bank of England would hike interest rates this year. USD/CAD rose 0.02% to C$1.3309 as rallying oil prices continued to support the loonie, limiting gains in the currency pair, after the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report showed a massive draw in domestic crude supplies.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL) Medium   10.6 10.7
08:00 ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin Medium      
09:00 Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUN) Low   112 112.5
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN) Low   -0.5 -0.5
10:00 BOE’s Bailey Speaks on the Future of Payments in London Low      
12:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) High   2.2% 2.2%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 23) Medium   220k 218k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (JUN 16) Medium   1718k 1723k
12:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (1Q) High   2.2% 2.2%
12:30 U.S Personal Consumption (1Q) Medium   1.0% 1.0%
12:30 U.S Core PCE (QoQ) (1Q) Medium     2.3%
13:30 BOE Chief Economist Andy Haldane Speaks in London Medium      
22:45 New Zealand Building Permits (MoM) (MAY) Medium     -3.7%
23:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (JUN) Medium   -7 -7
23:30 Japan Jobless Rate (MAY) Medium   2.5% 2.5%

 

Euro

The single currency was under pressure from worries about the trade conflict, the threat of a political crisis in Germany, and uncertainty over a European Union summit dealing with immigration. The U.S. dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies was up 0.65 percent at 95.274, on pace for its second day of gains. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1539 and a high of 1.1670 before closing the day around 1.1555 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair rallied after a moderation in the U.S administration’s approach to Chinese investment. The dollar was up 0.15 percent against the yen at 110.21 yen and advanced 0.64 percent against the franc. The Japanese and Swiss units tend to benefit at the dollar’s expense in times of geopolitical and financial tensions. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 109.66 and a high of 110.47 before closing the day around 110.27 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound hit lows of $1.31 against the US dollar as investors digested recent dovish comments from MPC member-in-waiting Johnathan Haskel. Investors haven’t had much in the form of significant UK data releases to assess this week, but Sterling has seen some movement as markets reacted to a range of combative statements from the Bank of England (BoE). Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3104 and a high of 1.3231 before closing the day at 1.3114 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar continues to have an uneventful week. Yesterday Canadian Dollar fell on the release front; the sole Canadian event was a speech from BoC Governor Stephen Poloz. In the U.S, the focus was on durable goods orders. Today, the U.S will publish Final GDP for the first quarter and unemployment claims. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3274 and a high of 1.3384 before closing the day at 1.3344 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continued to edge lower yesterday Despite the slight easing in trade policy tensions, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, which are dependent on trade with China, remained under pressure. If you look at the broader trade policy backdrop it is still fluid and still uncertain. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7321 and a high of 0.7405 before closing the day at 0.7337 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.57%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.08%.

 

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.48%.

 

 Euro-Sterling

 

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.07%.

  

 Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.18%.

 

 Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for June 27, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1645 1.16708 1.15392 1.15559 -0.0090
USD/JPY 110.028 110.471 109.667 110.272 0.2560
GBP/USD 1.32205 1.32319 1.31047 1.31144 -0.0107
USD/CHF 0.99076 0.99746 0.98895 0.99734 0.0069
USD/CAD 1.32991 1.3384 1.32748 1.33445 0.0040
EUR/JPY 128.144 128.322 127.236 127.424 -0.7340
GBP/JPY 110.519 110.634 110.342 110.589 0.0860
CHF/JPY 110.998 111.118 110.494 110.593 -0.4250
AUD/JPY 81.312 81.608 80.722 80.947 -0.3900
EUR/GBP 0.88054 0.88261 0.87952 0.88132 0.0006
EUR/CHF 1.15391 1.15528 1.15074 1.15237 -0.0013
GBP/CHF 1.31037 1.31114 1.30581 1.3078 -0.0023

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1375 1.1457 1.1506 1.1589 1.1638 1.1720 1.1770
USD/JPY 109.00 109.33 109.80 110.14 110.61 110.94 111.41
GBP/USD 1.2942 1.3023 1.3069 1.3150 1.3196 1.3278 1.3323
USD/CHF 0.9832 0.9861 0.9917 0.9946 1.0002 1.0031 1.0087
USD/CAD 1.3176 1.3225 1.3285 1.3334 1.3394 1.3444 1.3503
EUR/JPY 125.91 126.57 127.00 127.66 128.09 128.75 129.17
GBP/JPY 110.12 110.23 110.41 110.52 110.70 110.81 110.99
CHF/JPY 109.73 110.11 110.35 110.74 110.98 111.36 111.60
AUD/JPY 79.69 80.21 80.58 81.09 81.46 81.98 82.35
EUR/GBP 0.8766 0.8781 0.8797 0.8812 0.8828 0.8842 0.8859
EUR/CHF 1.1458 1.1483 1.1503 1.1528 1.1549 1.1573 1.1594
GBP/CHF 1.3000 1.3029 1.3054 1.3083 1.3107 1.3136 1.3160

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

28 6月 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, June 28, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24144 2706.00 7001.00
-0.68% -0.86% -1.54%

U.S stock index futures slid yesterday on concerns that a worsening U.S-China trade relationship could disrupt businesses and hurt corporate profits. Futures pointed to a 0.4 percent opening loss for the S&P 500, while China’s Shenzhen-listed blue-chip index dropped 2.05 percent, adding to a 20 percent loss from its peak, venturing further into ‘bear territory’. An escalating trade dispute and tit-for-tat tariffs between the two largest economies have roiled global financial markets since early March, with the recent U.S. move to restrict Chinese investments in U.S. technology firms pushing the S&P 500 and NASDAQ on Monday to their biggest percentage declines in over two months. President Donald Trump on Tuesday endorsed a measured approach to limiting Chinese investments, saying a strengthened merger security review committee could protect sensitive American technologies. The rules are set to be unveiled on Friday. China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday it would assess the potential impact of the action on Chinese companies.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

jul

German GfK Consumer Confidence 06:00 10.6 10.7

 

ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin 08:00    

jun

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 09:00 -0.5 -0.5

jun

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:00 2.2% 2.2%

jun

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 220k 218k

jun

U.S Continuing Claims 12:30 1718k 1723k

1Q

U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) 12:30 2.2% 2.2%

1Q

U.S Personal Consumption 12:30 1.0% 1.0%

jun

U.K GfK Consumer Confidence 23:01 -7 -7
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.68% to hit a new 1-month low yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were General Electric Company, which rose 1.60% or 0.22 points to trade at 13.96 at the close. Meanwhile, Chevron Corp added 1.48% or 1.84 points to end at 126.00 and Exxon Mobil Corp was up 1.33% or 1.07 points to 81.71 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were McDonald’s Corporation, which fell 2.17% or 3.49 points to trade at 157.42 at the close. Intel Corporation declined 1.83% or 0.91 points to end at 48.76 and Nike Inc. was down 1.67% or 1.21 points to 71.35.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 1.54% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Differential Brands Group Inc. which rose 512.36% to 5.450, Medigus Ltd ADR which was up 27.68% to settle at 1.430 and Spi Energy Co Ltd which gained 19.14% to close at 0.43. The worst performers were Aquinox Pha which was down 84.72% to 2.34 in late trade, Summit Therapeutics PLC which lost 79.84% to settle at 2.55 and Pain Therapeutics Inc. which was down 71.45% to 2.435 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices jumped yesterday as plunging U.S crude stockpiles compounded supply worries in a market already uncertain about Libyan exports, a production disruption in Canada and Washington’s demands that importers stop buying Iranian crude from November. Little spare capacity remains to offset any further production disruptions, said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital Management. U.S. crude futures rose $2.23, or 3.16 percent, to settle at $72.76 a barrel. The contract touched $73.06 a barrel, the highest since Nov. 28, 2014. Brent crude rose $1.31, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $77.62 a barrel. U.S crude stocks fell nearly 10 million barrels last week, the most since Sept. 2016, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose less than expected, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for the NYMEX futures contract fell 2.7 million barrels, EIA said.

 
Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices dipped to a fresh six-month low yesterday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, making bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Platinum also hit its lowest level since February 2016. Gold prices have shed more than 3 percent this month – the biggest monthly loss since September – driven by a dollar rally, a large decline in gold held by exchange-traded funds and a sharp fall in speculative bets. Spot gold declined 0.3 percent at $1,255.17 per ounce, after hitting its lowest since mid-December at $1,252.04. U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled down $3.80, or 0.3 percent, at $1,256.10 per ounce. Platinum lost 0.9 percent to trade at $857.40 per ounce after touching a more than one-year low at $848.50. The main focal point of the day will be the dollar and its pressure on gold. Technical indicators suggest gold will continue to fall, with support at the psychologically-important level of $1,250 then at $1,236.60, gold’s December low. An escalating trade dispute between the United States and China has hit global stock markets, but has so far not triggered demand for gold, usually seen as a safe haven to invest during times of uncertainty. The greenback is near 2018 highs against other currencies, in part due to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again after raising them in June for the second time this year. Higher rates typically lift the dollar and U.S. bond yields, pressuring gold, which is priced in dollars and does not offer a yield. The head of the Dallas Federal Reserve said the U.S. central bank could raise rates at least twice more before its monetary policy stopped being accommodative, while the chief at the Atlanta Fed said he might rule out a fourth rate hike this year if the U.S.-China trade dispute worsens. A fall in holdings by gold-backed exchange traded funds tracked by Reuters also pressured gold. Meanwhile, spot silver dropped 0.5 percent to $16.17 an ounce, while palladium declined 0.9 percent at $948.40.

 

 

 

Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

Soybeans edged up yesterday to extend gains into a second session, but concerns about trade tensions between the United States and China kept a lid on prices. The USDA rated 73 percent of the U.S soybean crop in good-to-excellent condition.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24277 24562 24076 24144 -156
S & P 500 SPM18 2726.5 2747.75 2700.75 2706 -22.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7098 7151 6987.75 7001 -103
Hang Seng HSH18 28993 29042 28270 28379 -561
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22285 22335 22185 22245 -85
FTSE 100 FTH18 7488 7573.5 7446 7511.5 11.5
Gold GCJ18 1260 1261.6 1252 1254.1 -6.4
Silver SIK18 1626 1628.5 1593.5 1604.5 -22.5
Copper HGK18 299.6 300.45 296.05 298.1 -1.25
Crude Oil CLK18 70.65 73.02 70.53 72.37 1.73
Wheat WK18 469.75 481.5 468.5 479.5 10
Soybeans SK18 868 877.25 865.5 868 1.25
Corn CK18 352 356 351.25 353 0.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23473 23775 23959 24261 24445 24747 24931
SPM18 2641.58 2671.17 2688.58 2718.17 2735.58 2765.17 2782.58
NDM18 6778.92 6883.33 6942.17 7046.58 7105.42 7209.83 7268.67
HSH18 27313 27792 28085 28564 28857 29336 29629
NKH18 22025 22105 22175 22255 22325 22405 22475
FTH18 7319.67 7382.83 7447.17 7510.33 7574.67 7637.83 7702.17
GCJ18 1240.60 1246.30 1250.20 1255.90 1259.80 1265.50 1269.40
SIK18 1554.17 1573.83 1589.17 1608.83 1624.17 1643.83 1659.17
HGK18 291.55 293.80 295.95 298.20 300.35 302.60 304.75
CLK18 68.44 69.48 70.93 71.97 73.42 74.46 75.91
WK18 458.50 463.50 471.50 476.50 484.50 489.50 497.50
SK18 851.50 858.50 863.25 870.25 875.00 882.00 886.75
CK18 346.08 348.67 350.83 353.42 355.58 358.17 360.33

  Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

                        2018-06-28

 

 
市场综述
周四(6月28日)亚市盘中,美元指数上涨,并刷新本周高点,目前来到95.54。受此影响,非美货币普遍承压,本交易日,投资者将目光转移至即将召开的欧盟峰会以及晚些时间公布的美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、美国第一季度实际个人消费支出季率终值、美国第一季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率终值以及美国至6月23日当周初请失业金人数等重要数据。其中GDP数据被视为重中之重,美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值的前值与预测值均为2.2%。也预料对金融市场将迎来更大的震荡。分析师认为,美元指数目前已经升破了95整数关口并且仍在继续走高,美指在96整数关口目前仍有阻力。本交易日的数据将关系到美元指数能否再本周上探至96这个重要关口。

欧元部分,欧元/美元周四盘中震荡,最低至1.15268,欧盟峰会将于6月28日至6月29日召开,此次欧盟峰会对于欧元区来说有着极为重要的影响,目前欧元区正处于风雨飘摇之际,难民问题、和美国的贸易摩擦、英国脱欧问题、财政预算统一以及债务问题等都是欧盟当前的主要麻烦。此次欧盟峰会,难民问题是关注的重点之一,德国总理默克尔2015年下令收容了110万名难民,使她在国内的声望至今尚未完全恢复。它不仅给欧洲带来极大的经济负担,而且还造成社会分裂,极右翼政党崛起。欧盟峰会召开在即,投资者担心欧盟峰会的失败将使欧元遭受致命性的打击,此外,美指的强势也是汇价跌跌不休的主因之一。与此同时英国将会公布脱欧白皮书,同时将在欧盟峰会上拿出脱欧后的关税安排与建议,并于欧盟峰会时讨论。英国关税安排主要集中在与爱尔兰的关税边界上,爱尔兰外长科尼夫在欧盟峰会召开前夕表示,爱尔兰边界担保方案仍在讨论中,无协议脱欧的可能性不大,希望脱欧谈判能在7月加快,这对于陷入泥潭的脱欧谈判而言无疑是一个利好的消息。

日元方面,美元/日元周四上涨,最高至110.404,亚市早盘日本公布5月季调后零售销售(月率)初值,公布后为-1.7%,低于市场预期的-0.8%,分析师指出,美元指数近期上涨,美元/日元已经突破本周新高,加上日本央行(BOJ)副总裁雨宫正佳表示,BOJ未来可能调整超宽松货币政策,日本首相安倍晋三也表示,除非发生雷曼兄弟式危机,日本政府仍准备按计划上调消费税,增添日本经济复苏的不确定性。

技术分析
EURUSD

从4小时图上看,欧元/美元日内震荡。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱紧缩,RSI指标位于强势回转点。后市来看,价位短期将持续震荡,汇价支撑目标指向 1.16000一线。上行方面,汇价初步阻力考验1.15000一线。

 

USDJPY

从4小时图上看,美元/日元日内上涨。技术指标上,MACD看涨动能柱扩张,RSI指标位于平衡区50上方。后市来看,价位将上涨,汇价阻力位考验111.000。下行方面,汇价支撑看向109.800一线。

 

 

 证券 CFD 欧美                   2018-06-28

 

产品 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价
DJ_ 24277 24562 24076 24137
SP_ 2726.50 2747.75 2700.75 2705.50
ND_ 7097.75 7151.00 6987.75 7000.00
FT_ 7492.5 7574.5 7447.0 7509.5
市场综述
美国股市周三收盘走低,抹去了大幅上涨,因美国对中国投资其科技企业的立场再度变得扑朔迷离。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌165.52点,收于24,117.59点,英特尔是该指数中表现最差的股票之一。标准普尔500指数回落0.9%至2,699.63点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.5%,至7,445.08点。

个股方面,金融类股回吐盘中稍早的反弹,创下连续13天的亏损纪录。金融类股SPDR基金(XLF)收低1.3%。美国银行、摩根大通、摩根士丹利和花旗集团均下跌至少1%。亚马逊和Alphabet分别下跌1.8%和1.4%。 Facebook和Netflix的股价下跌也推动纳斯达克指数走低。标普科技指数下跌1.5%,对标普500指数带来最大的拖累。营收依赖中国的晶片制造商跌幅更大。费城半导体指数下滑2.5%。

英国股市周三报收于7621.69点,比前一交易日上涨83.77点,涨幅为1.11%。欧洲三大股指当天全线上涨,其他两大主要股指方面,法国巴黎股市指数报收于5327.20点,涨幅为0.87%;德国法兰克福股市指数报收于12348.61点,涨幅为0.93%。

个股方面,当天伦敦股市成分股中消费类个股领涨,位于涨幅前五位的个股分别为:软件和信息服务商微聚国际股价上涨4.67%,在线零售商Ocado集团股价上涨3.92%,餐饮及酒店集团惠特布雷德股价上涨3.44%,罗尔斯罗伊斯控股公司股价上涨3.35%,英国石油股价上涨3.35%。而成分股中金融类个股则领跌,位于跌幅前五位的个股分别为:在线餐饮外卖公司JUST EAT股价下跌7.11%,供应链服务商Bunzl股价下跌1.31%,苏格兰皇家银行集团股价下跌1.09% ,耆卫保险公司股价下跌0.95%,英国联合食品集团股价下跌0.85%。

 

技术分析
DJ_

从DJ_日线图上看,价格隔夜震荡收跌,最低探至24076一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标下行。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标指向24400一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向23900一线。

  

SP_

从SP_日线图上看,价格隔夜下跌,最低探至2700.75一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标下行至39。后市来看,价格初步阻力目标指向2730.00一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向2690.00一线。

 

 ND_

从ND_日线图上看,价格隔夜下跌,最低探至6987.75一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱扩张,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标下行至42。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向7080.00一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向6940.00一线。

 

 FT_

从FT_日线图上看,价格隔夜小幅收涨,最高探至7574.5一线。技术指标上,MACD看跌动能柱缩减,快线与慢线趋势向下,RSI指标接近44。后市来看,价格阻力目标指向7580.0一线。下行方面,价格初步支撑看向7440.0一线。