- USD/JPY retraces from fresh five-month high.
- 100-bar SMA holds the key to 109.35/30 support confluence.
- Bearish MACD, broad risk-off keep sellers hopeful.
Failure to rise successfully beyond May-end tops drags the USD/JPY pair to near-term support line while flashing 109.06 as a quote amid the initial trading session on Monday.
The pair slips below a one-week-old rising trend line, at 109.10 now, but a sustained break of 109.00 becomes necessary for sellers who follow the bearish signal from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) while targeting 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 108.70.
During the quote’s additional weakness past-108.70, the 108.35/30 area including an upward sloping trend line since early-October and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October-November rise will gain sellers’ attention.
On the upside, pair’s successful rise past-109.10 needs to cross 109.50 to aim for 110.00 and May 21 high near 110.70.
It's worth mentioning that the trade tension between the United States (US) and China, coupled with geopolitical plays concerning Iran and Iraq, not to forget renewed protests in Hong Kong, recently favored markets risk-off mood.
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Trend: pullback expected