Next week data to be released in the US includes the 2Q GDP report. Analysts at the National Bank of Canada expect growth of around 1.5% annualized.

Key Quotes:

“The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its advance estimate of Q2 GDP growth on Friday. A moderation in growth from the prior quarter – recall the +3.1% growth print in the first quarter ─ is in the cards. That’s because of a likely drag from destocking after three consecutive quarters of inventory accumulation. Trade also probably weigh on growth, as export volumes fell at a faster pace than import volumes did in the quarter. Domestic demand, meanwhile, should remain strong judging from a healthy rebound in retail sales in the quarter. If shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft are any guide, business investment spending should provide a modest lift to growth as well. Overall, we expect GDP growth of around 1.5% annualized.

“Durable goods orders may have bounced back in June following two consecutive negative prints. That said, the size of the rebound may be limited by still-depressed demand in the civilian airplane segment.”

“The week will provide important information about the housing market in June with the release of data on existing and new home sales. Increases are expected for both indicators on account of lower mortgages rates. Some clues on the state of U.S. factories in July will also be available with the publication of Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI.”