The Financial Times reports that, "the Conservatives are braced for their most perilous week of the election campaign, with Tory officials worried that the party’s chances of success at the December 12 poll risk being thwarted by Donald Trump’s visit to the UK, the final leaders’ television debate and the potential collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote."

The article notes that although prime minister Boris Johnson is ahead in opinion surveys, senior Tories are worried that events beyond their control may knock their strategy off course.

Key notes

  • "The immediate fears at Conservative headquarters are focused on the US president, who was due to arrive in London on Monday evening for a summit of Nato leaders.
  • British officials have urged Mr Trump not to intervene in the election campaign by endorsing Mr Johnson — partly because Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has cast the prime minister as being in the White House’s pocket.
  • So far Boris has had a strong lead — but one of the warning signs in [the] 2017 [general election] was when Corbyn started to catch Theresa May."

FX implications

The twitter feed will be full of updates this week in this regard and depending on the sentiment GBP traders could be in store for some price volatility.

  • GBP/USD: A Tory victory is close to fully priced – MUFG