29 Июн 2018

FOREX Newsletter

    

FOREX Newsletter

June 29, 2018

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S dollar rose against the yen as an absence of any fresh escalation in trade-related tensions

·      U.S gross domestic product grew at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the January-March period

·      German inflation data surpassed the target set by the ECB for the euro zone in June

·      The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback, supported by a recent increase in oil prices

The U.S Dollar’s recent run higher against its rivals yesterday was held back by weaker U.S economic data showing the economy expanded at a slower-than-expected rate in the first quarter of the year. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.14% to 94.89. U.S. gross domestic product slowed to a 2% annual rate in the January to March period, the Commerce Department said in its final estimate on Thursday, missing economists’ forecast of 2.2%. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended June 23. That was well above economists’ estimate for rise to 220,000. A rampant euro, meanwhile, also weighed on upside in the greenback as traders piled into the single currency amid data showing inflation in some German regions was above the ECB’s target rate. EUR/USD bounced from a session low of $1.1527 to trade 0.24% higher at $1.1581. GBP/USD, meanwhile, moved off seven-month lows, and last traded at $1.3089, down 0.19%, as potential Brexit-related headline risks from the European Summit have been limited as the EU’s migrant crisis dominated discussions. Safe-haven currencies struggled to pare back losses from a day earlier as USD/JPY rose 0.08% to Y110.34, while USD/CHF rose 0.04% 0.9975. USD/CAD fell 0.68% to C$1.3250 as oil prices gave up some of their gains, stifling the loonie, amid reports the White House was considering easing its tough stance on nations that import Iranian crude. The shifting perception of July rate hike chances whipsawed the CAD to a one-year low at $1.3386 before it recovered ground.
 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) (MAY) Medium   5.0% 5.1%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (MAY) Medium   -6.2% 0.3%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (JUN) Medium   43.8 43.8
06:00 German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) Medium   1.8% 1.2%
07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator (JUN) Medium   99.8 100
07:55 German Unemployment Change (000’s) (JUN) High   -8k -11k
07:55 German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (JUN) High   5.2% 5.2%
08:30 U.K Net Consumer Credit (MAY) Medium   1.5b 1.8b
08:30 U.K Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q) Medium   1.2% 1.2%
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUN) High   1.0% 1.1%
12:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (APR) High   2.6% 2.9%
12:30 U.S Personal Spending (MAY) Medium   0.4% 0.6%
12:30 U.S Personal Income (MAY) Medium   0.4% 0.3%
12:30 U.S PCE Core (YoY) (MAY) High   1.9% 1.8%
13:45 U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager (JUN) Medium   60.0 62.7
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (JUN) Medium   99.2 99.3
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (JUN 29) Medium     1052

 

Euro

The single currency gained as rising inflation in some German regions prompted some traders to buy the euro, though rebalancing flows for the half year checked sharp losses. Currencies remained range bound as mixed signals on the trade dispute between Washington and its trading partners kept sentiment subdued.  Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1525 and a high of 1.1599 before closing the day around 1.1569 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair rose in yesterday’s trading session, as an absence of any fresh escalation in trade-related tensions between the United States and its major trading partners capped demand for the Japanese currency. The yen tends to benefit during geopolitical or financial stress as Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 109.94 and a high of 110.63 before closing the day around 110.50 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound slumped to its lowest level against the US dollar since November, with pressure mounting on Prime Minister Theresa May over slow Brexit progress as she took part in an EU summit in Brussels. That was the lowest level for the pound in seven months. Mrs. May was facing pressure from her EU counterparts over the slow pace of Brexit negotiations. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3047 and a high of 1.3121 before closing the day at 1.3078 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart yesterday, bolstered by a 3-1/2-year high for oil prices and as investors added to bets for a Bank of Canada interest rate hike next month. Chances of a rate increase at the July 11 announcement have climbed to 65 per cent from less than 50 per cent before a news conference by BOC Governor. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3239 and a high of 1.3349 before closing the day at 1.3251 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained slightly in yesterday’s trading session as the U.S Dollar yesterday put in a mixed performance against other currencies, in an up-and-down session. Yesterday, the dollar gauge was 0.1% lower at 95.317, stalling after a rally on Wednesday when the White House walked away from harsh measures to curb Chinese investment in the U.S. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7345 and a high of 0.7354 before closing the day at 0.7347 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

 

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.32%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

 Aussie-Yen

 

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.40%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.38%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 32 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.23%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for June 28, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15524 1.15993 1.15258 1.15696 0.0014
USD/JPY 110.217 110.63 109.947 110.507 0.2350
GBP/USD 1.31111 1.31213 1.30477 1.30785 -0.0036
USD/CHF 0.99715 0.99907 0.99579 0.99764 0.0003
USD/CAD 1.3336 1.33491 1.32392 1.32511 -0.0093
EUR/JPY 127.334 127.9 127.123 127.837 0.4130
GBP/JPY 144.526 144.656 143.747 144.525 -0.0830
CHF/JPY 110.519 110.821 110.276 110.791 0.1980
AUD/JPY 80.89 81.269 80.661 81.268 0.3210
EUR/GBP 0.8809 0.88686 0.88066 0.88463 0.0033
EUR/CHF 1.15216 1.15626 1.15112 1.15413 0.0018
GBP/CHF 1.30754 1.30826 1.33029 1.30482 -0.0030

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1457 1.1491 1.1531 1.1565 1.1604 1.1638 1.1678
USD/JPY 109.41 109.68 110.09 110.36 110.78 111.04 111.46
GBP/USD 1.2970 1.3009 1.3044 1.3083 1.3117 1.3156 1.3191
USD/CHF 0.9927 0.9942 0.9959 0.9975 0.9992 1.0008 1.0025
USD/CAD 1.3101 1.3170 1.3211 1.3280 1.3320 1.3390 1.3430
EUR/JPY 126.56 126.84 127.34 127.62 128.12 128.40 128.89
GBP/JPY 143.05 143.40 143.96 144.31 144.87 145.22 145.78
CHF/JPY 109.89 110.08 110.44 110.63 110.98 111.17 111.53
AUD/JPY 80.26 80.46 80.86 81.07 81.47 81.67 82.08
EUR/GBP 0.8750 0.8779 0.8812 0.8841 0.8874 0.8903 0.8936
EUR/CHF 1.1463 1.1487 1.1514 1.1538 1.1566 1.1590 1.1617
GBP/CHF 1.3427 1.3365 1.3207 1.3145 1.2986 1.2924 1.2766

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

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