26 Июл 2018

FOREX Newsletter

     

FOREX Newsletter

July 26, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S Dollar weakened after U.S President secured concessions from the EU to avoid a trade war

·      Investors were also looking ahead to a European Central Bank policy meeting today

·      The Bank of Japan is actively discussing changes to its massive monetary stimulus program

·      Australian inflation data indicated that the central bank is likely to leave interest rates on hold

The U.S Dollar slid against a currency basket yesterday and the euro was flat as U.S President Donald Trump prepared to host European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for trade talks. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, edged down 0.13%. Trump is to host a European Union delegation in the White House, with talks set to center on the auto industry amid heightened trade tensions between Europe and Washington. Last month the U.S. slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the EU, which led to Europe putting 25% tariffs on bourbon whiskey, peanut butter, motorcycles and jeans. Ahead of the talks Trump tweeted that tariffs are “great”, and called for both sides to completely abolish tariffs, subsidies and other trade barriers. The EU said it is preparing to impose tariffs on $20 billion of U.S imports if Washington follows through on threats to impose tariffs on auto imports from the bloc. The euro was almost flat, with EUR/USD trading at 1.1692 in range bound trade. Investors were also looking ahead to a European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday for fresh guidance on monetary policy. At its June meeting the ECB indicated that rates would remain on hold through the middle of 2019 and also announced plans to wind up its massive stimulus program in December. The dollar was a touch lower against the yen, with USD/JPY last at 111.09. The Japanese currency found support earlier in the week following reports that the Bank of Japan is actively discussing changes to its massive monetary stimulus program. The BoJ is due to hold its next policy meeting at the end of the month. The pound was almost unchanged for the day, with GBP/USD at 1.3140. The Canadian dollar strengthened to a nearly six-week high against its U.S. counterpart yesterday.

 

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:50 Japan Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUN) Low   1.0% 1.0%
01:00 China Swift Global Payments CNY (JUN) Low     1.9%
06:00 German GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG) Medium   10.7 10.7
11:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (JUL 26) High   0.00% 0.00%
11:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility (JUL 26) High   0.25% 0.25%
11:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate (JUL 26) High   -0.40% -0.40%
12:30 ECB President Draghi Holds Press Conference in Frankfurt High      
12:30 U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance (JUN) High   -$66.6b -$64.8b
12:30 U.S Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (JUN) Medium   0.5% 0.6%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 21) Medium   215k 207k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (JUL 14) Medium   1735k 1751k
12:30 U.S Durable Goods Orders (JUN) Medium   3.0% -0.4%
12:30 U.S Durables Ex Transportation (JUN) Medium   0.5% 0.0%
15:00 U.S Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (JUL) Low   25 28
22:00 New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JUL) Low     -0.8%
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low   0.7% 0.6%

 

Euro

The single currency gained yesterday as the U.S Dollar dipped against a basket of currencies on Wednesday ahead of a meeting between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, but investor caution about a trade rift between the two economic powers limited movement. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1662 and a high of 1.1737 before closing the day around 1.1726 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted gains yesterday. In the North American session, USD/JPY traded, down 0.21% on the day. On the release front, U.S New Home Sales dropped sharply to 631 thousand, well off the estimate of 669 thousand. This marked a 4-month low. Recent trade tensions between the U.S and its trading partners have shaken investors worldwide. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.64 and a high of 111.36 before closing the day around 110.96 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound saw little action during the last few sessions, advancing on the back of dollar’s weakness. The UK released the CBI Realized Sales survey, which was the trigger to the early advance, as sales were up 20% in July, better than the 15% expected but well below the previous 32%. There are no economic releases scheduled in the kingdom today. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3131 and a high of 1.3199 before closing the day at 1.3188 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to a nearly six-week high as the greenback broadly fell and policy-makers said they were optimistic about prospects for the NAFTA. Canadian Foreign Minister and Mexican Economy Minister said they remained optimistic about the progress of the negotiations to revamp the NAFTA trade pact. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3022 and a high of 1.3163 before closing the day at 1.3043 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained sharply in yesterday’s session. Australian inflation rose by 0.4% during the three months to the end of June, unchanged from the quarter-on-quarter rate of inflation seen back at the start of the year, when markets had been looking for it to rise by 0.5%. This pushed the annual consumer price index up to 2.1%, although economists had looked for a reading of 2.2%. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7390 and a high of 0.7462 before closing the day at 0.7448 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.22%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.04%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.03%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.27%.

 

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.25%.

 

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for July 25, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16827 1.17372 1.16628 1.17267 0.0041
USD/JPY 111.161 111.365 110.649 110.965 -0.2410
GBP/USD 1.31411 1.3199 1.31313 1.31881 0.0041
USD/CHF 0.99352 0.99475 0.99058 0.99164 -0.0021
USD/CAD 1.31533 1.31639 1.30222 1.30438 -0.0113
EUR/JPY 129.871 130.244 129.387 130.133 0.1850
GBP/JPY 146.095 146.497 145.744 146.35 0.1480
CHF/JPY 111.844 112.141 111.505 111.859 -0.0730
AUD/JPY 82.453 82.586 82.056 82.704 0.1890
EUR/GBP 0.88864 0.89004 0.88707 0.889 -0.0002
EUR/CHF 1.16101 1.16322 1.15927 1.16297 0.0015
GBP/CHF 1.30576 1.3083 1.30304 1.30797 0.0016

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1606 1.1635 1.1681 1.1709 1.1755 1.1783 1.1829
USD/JPY 109.91 110.28 110.62 110.99 111.34 111.71 112.05
GBP/USD 1.3079 1.3105 1.3147 1.3173 1.3214 1.3241 1.3282
USD/CHF 0.9857 0.9882 0.9899 0.9923 0.9941 0.9965 0.9982
USD/CAD 1.2848 1.2935 1.2989 1.3077 1.3131 1.3218 1.3273
EUR/JPY 128.74 129.06 129.60 129.92 130.46 130.78 131.31
GBP/JPY 145.14 145.44 145.90 146.20 146.65 146.95 147.40
CHF/JPY 110.89 111.20 111.53 111.84 112.17 112.47 112.80
AUD/JPY 81.78 81.92 82.31 82.45 82.84 82.98 83.37
EUR/GBP 0.8844 0.8857 0.8874 0.8887 0.8903 0.8917 0.8933
EUR/CHF 1.1565 1.1579 1.1604 1.1618 1.1644 1.1658 1.1683
GBP/CHF 1.2993 1.3012 1.3046 1.3064 1.3098 1.3117 1.3151

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

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