17 Июл 2018

FOREX Newsletter

           

FOREX Newsletter

July 17, 2018

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Commerce Department said yesterday that core retail sales rose 0.4% last month

·      The Empire State manufacturing index fell 2.4 points in July to a reading of 22.60

·      GBP fell ahead of slew of data this week which could determine the prospect of BOE rate hike

·      The Canadian Dollar rose against many of its rivals in yesterday’s trading session

The U.S Dollar was slightly lower against its rivals yesterday, as in-line U.S retail sales data, and slightly better than forecast regional manufacturing activity provided little impetus for upside in the greenback. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.14% to 94.31, down from a session high of 94.53. The Commerce Department said on Monday that core retail sales rose 0.4% last month, compared with an upwardly revised 1.4% increase for May. The retail sales control group – which has a larger impact on U.S. GDP – came in at 0.0% missing expectations for a 0.4% rise. The Empire State manufacturing index fell 2.4 points in July to a reading of 22.60, the New York Federal Reserve said yesterday. The dollar was also kept on the back foot by an uptick in safe-currencies like the yen and Swiss Franc amid fresh trade concerns after the U.S. filed complaints to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against China, Canada, EU, Mexico and Turkey in response to retaliatory tariffs.  The subdued start to the week for the greenback comes as traders awaited further clues on monetary policy as Fed chairman Jerome Powell is expected to testify on the economy and monetary policy before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee today. Ahead of Powell’s appearance, the Fed gave a positive assessment of the U.S. economy, insisting that strong labor markets and inflation would support the central bank’s plan to continue with gradual rate hikes. GBP/USD fell 0.02% to $1.3232, ahead of slew of data this week which could determine the prospect of an August Bank of England rate hike as average wage data is expected Tuesday, while inflation figures and retail sales are due later in the week. The Canadian dollar drifted higher yesterday, benefiting from the greenback’s overall weakness, but the outlook remained tilted to the downside amid global trade tensions with the United States and the European Union.

 

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 RBA July Meeting Minutes Medium      
01:30 China New Home Prices (MoM) (JUN) Medium     0.8%
04:00 Japan Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JUN) Low     -5.4%
08:00 BOE’s Carney, Cunliffe, Stheeman Speak on Financial Stability High      
08:30 U.K Claimant Count Rate (JUN) Medium     2.5%
08:30 U.K Jobless Claims Change (JUN) Medium     -7.7k
08:30 U.K Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAY) Medium   2.5% 2.5%
08:30 U.K ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (MAY) Medium   4.2% 4.2%
08:30 U.K Employment Change 3M/3M (MAY) Medium   115k 146k
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (MAY) Low   0.5% -1.3%
13:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN) Medium   0.5% -0.1%
13:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUN) Medium   0.6% -0.7%
14:00 U.S NAHB Housing Market Index (JUL) Medium   69 68
14:00 U.S Powell to Deliver Semi-Annual Testimony Before Senate Panel High      
20:00 U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAY) Medium     $93.9b

Euro

The single currency posted gains yesterday. In economic news, the Eurozone trade surplus slipped to EUR 16.9 billion, short of the estimate of EUR 17.6 billion. This marked the lowest surplus since January 2017. In the U.S, the focus was on consumer spending reports. In today’s session, Federal Reserve Chair will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1674 and a high of 1.1724 before closing the day around 1.1709 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair slipped in yesterday’s trading session. The USD/JPY pair had a difficult time setting its next short-term direction yesterday amid a subdued trading action surrounding the FX markets. After advancing to mid-112 during the first half of the day, the USD/JPY pair lacked a follow-through as this move. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.21 and a high of 112.54 before closing the day around 112.26 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has recorded slight gains. In North American trade, the pair traded 0.24% on the day. On the release front, British Rightmove HPI surprised with a decline of -0.1%, its first decline since December. In the U.S, core retail sales dropped to 0.4%, matching the estimate. Retail sales dropped to 0.5%, edging above 0.4%.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3215 and a high of 1.3290 before closing the day at 1.3233 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar drifted higher against the U.S. currency yesterday, benefiting from the greenback’s overall weakness, but the outlook remained tilted to the downside amid global trade tensions with the United States and the European Union. Against other currencies, such as the euro and sterling, the Canadian mostly underperformed on the day. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3107 and a high of 1.3158 before closing the day at 1.3133 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar depreciated against the dollar following the release of a slew of China data yesterday. China’s economy expanded 6.7% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since 2016, although the growth is still above the government’s target of “about 6.5%” growth for the year. While the official GDP readings were largely in line with market expectations. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7407 and a high of 0.7440 before closing the day at 0.7412 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 66 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.19%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

 Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 07%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.23%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.49%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for July 16, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16796 1.1724 1.16742 1.17099 0.0028
USD/JPY 112.369 112.544 112.21 112.267 -0.0620
GBP/USD 1.32264 1.32909 1.32151 1.3233 0.0000
USD/CHF 1.00201 1.00228 0.9961 0.99653 -0.0050
USD/CAD 1.31575 1.31589 1.31074 1.31337 -0.0018
EUR/JPY 131.255 131.674 131.239 131.494 0.2520
GBP/JPY 148.642 149.287 148.495 148.579 -0.0920
CHF/JPY 112.108 112.684 112.095 112.623 0.4870
AUD/JPY 83.321 83.654 83.19 83.281 -0.0570
EUR/GBP 0.88284 0.88519 0.88145 0.88464 0.0021
EUR/CHF 1.17045 1.17118 1.16679 1.16715 -0.0029
GBP/CHF 1.32545 1.32641 1.31828 1.31895 -0.0065

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1632 1.1653 1.1681 1.1703 1.1731 1.1753 1.1781
USD/JPY 111.80 112.01 112.14 112.34 112.47 112.67 112.80
GBP/USD 1.3126 1.3171 1.3202 1.3246 1.3278 1.3322 1.3353
USD/CHF 0.9881 0.9921 0.9943 0.9983 1.0005 1.0045 1.0067
USD/CAD 1.3056 1.3082 1.3108 1.3133 1.3159 1.3185 1.3211
EUR/JPY 130.83 131.03 131.26 131.47 131.70 131.90 132.13
GBP/JPY 147.50 148.00 148.29 148.79 149.08 149.58 149.87
CHF/JPY 111.66 111.88 112.25 112.47 112.84 113.06 113.43
AUD/JPY 82.63 82.91 83.10 83.38 83.56 83.84 84.02
EUR/GBP 0.8786 0.8800 0.8823 0.8838 0.8861 0.8875 0.8898
EUR/CHF 1.1612 1.1640 1.1656 1.1684 1.1700 1.1728 1.1743
GBP/CHF 1.3079 1.3131 1.3160 1.3212 1.3241 1.3293 1.3323

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

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