16 Июл 2018

FOREX Newsletter

         

FOREX Newsletter

July 16, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Dollar dipped against a currency basket on Friday, pulling away from two week highs

·      Investors will be looking ahead to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on the economy

·      The Euro edged higher against the dollar in late trade, with EUR/USD rising 0.13% to 1.1686

·      The Sterling pushed higher late Friday, with GBP/USD gaining 0.23% to trade at 1.3235

The U.S Dollar dipped against a basket of currencies on Friday, fading from a two-week peak which was tied to news of a record Chinese trade surplus that may fuel U.S.-China trade tensions and that briefly spurred safe-haven bids for the greenback. The dollar’s pullback likely stemmed from modest gains on Wall Street and a drop-off in trading volume before the weekend. The U.S. dollar has been moving inversely with stocks. They could have restrained the dollar somewhat. An index that tracks the dollar against the yen, euro and four other currencies was down 0.07 percent to 94.740 after touching 95.241, which was the highest since June 29. The yen recovered from a six-month trough against the greenback after hitting a six-month low at 112.79 yen before recovering to 112.30 yen, up 0.2 percent on the day. The euro fell to a nine-day low at $1.1610 before ending flat at $1.1680. Despite the greenback’s stalling on Friday, prospects for a strong dollar remain intact. Trade war concerns amplify the downside risk on global growth. That tends to be positive for the dollar and puts a drag on other currencies. Upbeat comments on the U.S. economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also stoked earlier demand for the dollar. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that the United States and China might reopen trade talks, briefly easing concerns about the trade dispute. But data showing China’s trade surplus with the United States swelled to a record in June could further inflame tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump this week pledged to impose tariffs on $200 billion more in Chinese imports. Beijing has vowed to retaliate. Escalating trade tensions have not dented the U.S. economy, which on is its second longest expansion on record. On Thursday, Fed chief Powell said in a Marketplace radio interview he believes the U.S. economy remains in a “good place,” with recent government tax and spending programs likely to boost growth for perhaps three years. The Fed released its semiannual report on monetary policy before Powell’s testimony to Congress next Tuesday and Wednesday. The report showed solid U.S. economic growth and the Fed expecting to keep raising rates gradually.

 

   
Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
02:00 China Surveyed Jobless Rate (JUN) Medium     4.8%
02:00 China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) High   6.7% 6.8%
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) Medium   9.0% 8.5%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) Medium   6.5% 6.8%
09:00 Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAY) Low     18.1b
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (JUN) High     0.8%
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (JUN) Medium     0.8%
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Control Group (JUN) Medium     0.5%
13:00 Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) Medium   1.5% -0.1%
14:00 U.S Business Inventories (MAY) Medium     0.3%
22:45 New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) (2Q) High     1.1%

 

Euro

The single currency fell earlier to an eight-day low on Friday as U.S inflation numbers boosted interest rate expectations and an easing in trade tensions between the United States and China supported the dollar. U.S. President’s comments on Brexit plan killing hopes of a U.S trade deal also knocked sterling lower, pushing the dollar up across the board. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1611 and a high of 1.1684 before closing the day around 1.1681 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair dipped on Friday, fading from a two-week peak which was tied to news of a record Chinese trade surplus that may fuel U.S.-China trade tensions and that briefly spurred safe-haven bids for the greenback. The dollar’s pullback likely stemmed from modest gains on Wall Street and a drop-off in trading volume before the weekend. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.25 and a high of 112.78 before closing the day around 112.32 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rate got off to a rough start last week, with a surge in political uncertainty driving the pairing lower. This came in the wake of resignations of UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis driving in protest over the Prime Ministers Brexit plans agreed to by the cabinet the previous week.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3100 and a high of 1.3234 before closing the day at 1.3233 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as oil prices rose, but for the week the loonie was on track to fall 0.6 per cent after broader gains for the greenback offset a Bank of Canada interest rate hike. The U.S. dollar faded from a two-week peak which was tied to news of a record Chinese trade surplus. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3147 and a high of 1.3206 before closing the day at 1.3152 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar proved quite resilient to more gloomy trade headlines last week. News that the US was considering yet more tariffs on Chinese goods sapped the global risk appetite from which currencies such as the Aussie usually benefit. However, while AUD/USD certainly slipped, it didn’t fall very far and managed to rise again afterwards. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7366 and a high of 0.7420 before closing the day at 0.7419 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 65 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 65 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.05%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has closed unchanged.

 

 Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.15%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for July 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1669 1.16846 1.16116 1.16816 0.0012
USD/JPY 112.491 112.781 112.257 112.329 -0.1920
GBP/USD 1.32038 1.32347 1.31008 1.3233 0.0029
USD/CHF 1.00205 1.00663 1.00127 1.00151 -0.0006
USD/CAD 1.3154 1.32064 1.31479 1.3152 0.0000
EUR/JPY 131.303 131.507 130.783 131.242 -0.0880
GBP/JPY 148.553 148.681 147.616 148.671 0.0710
CHF/JPY 112.235 112.436 111.832 112.136 -0.1220
AUD/JPY 83.317 83.573 82.961 83.338 -0.0030
EUR/GBP 0.88358 0.88642 0.88233 0.88257 -0.0009
EUR/CHF 1.16946 1.17064 1.16559 1.17007 0.0005
GBP/CHF 1.32328 1.32622 1.31577 1.32545 0.0020

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1561 1.1586 1.1634 1.1659 1.1707 1.1732 1.1780
USD/JPY 111.61 111.93 112.13 112.46 112.65 112.98 113.18
GBP/USD 1.3010 1.3056 1.3144 1.3190 1.3278 1.3323 1.3412
USD/CHF 0.9943 0.9978 0.9996 1.0031 1.0050 1.0085 1.0104
USD/CAD 1.3073 1.3110 1.3131 1.3169 1.3190 1.3227 1.3248
EUR/JPY 130.12 130.45 130.85 131.18 131.57 131.90 132.30
GBP/JPY 146.90 147.26 147.96 148.32 149.03 149.39 150.09
CHF/JPY 111.23 111.53 111.83 112.13 112.44 112.74 113.04
AUD/JPY 82.40 82.68 83.01 83.29 83.62 83.90 84.23
EUR/GBP 0.8770 0.8797 0.8811 0.8838 0.8852 0.8879 0.8893
EUR/CHF 1.1618 1.1637 1.1669 1.1688 1.1719 1.1738 1.1770
GBP/CHF 1.3083 1.3120 1.3187 1.3225 1.3292 1.3329 1.3396

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

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