11 Июл 2018

FOREX Newsletter

         

FOREX Newsletter

July 11, 2018

  Pulse of the Market

·      The Dollar extended early gains against a currency basket in yesterday’s trading session

·      German investor confidence fell to the lowest level in six years in July

·      UK economic growth picked up to 0.3% in May according to monthly GDP figures

·      Canadian Dollar was supported amid expectations the BOC will increase interest rates today

The U.S Dollar rose against its rivals yesterday, supported by upbeat labor market data and a weaker yen, as easing trade-war fears continued to keep a lid on demand for safe-haven currencies. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.16% to 93.95. The U.S. Labor Department’s latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report, a measure of labor demand, showed job openings in May came in at about 6.64 million, beating expectations for 6.58 million. The uptick in job openings follows a bullish nonfarm payrolls report Friday, showing the U.S. economy had created more jobs than forecast in June, strengthening calls for further increases in U.S. interest rates. The odds of a fourth rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting has increased to 54%, up from about 44% last week, according to Fed Rate Monitor Tool. The dollar also added to gains against safe-haven currencies like the yen and the Swiss Franc as the flight-to-safety trade has been halted somewhat by easing trade-war fears. GBP/USD fell 0.07% to $1.3250 as manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell, and concerns over UK government turmoil weighed. But losses in sterling were limited, by an in-line GDP print, raising expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) August rate hike. A (BoE) rate increase in August is now more likely following data showing UK GDP grew 0.3% in May. The euro was weaker against the firmer dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.27%. In the euro zone, data on Tuesday showed that German investor confidence fell to the lowest level in six years in July as fears over an escalation in trade tensions with the U.S. dampened the economic outlook. The ZEW index of German investor sentiment dropped to -24.7 this month from -16.1 in June, the weakest reading since August 2012.

 

  
Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL) Medium     0.3%
01:30 Australia Home Loans (MoM) (MAY) Medium   -2.0% -1.4%
04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAY) Medium   -0.3% 1.0%
07:00 ECB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt High      
07:30 ECB’s Praet Chairs Conference Session in Frankfurt Low      
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 06) Medium     -0.5%
12:30 U.S PPI Final Demand (YoY) (JUN) Low   3.1% 3.1%
12:30 U.S Producer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (JUN) Low   2.6% 2.4%
14:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision (JUL 11) High   1.50% 1.25%
14:00 U.S Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (MAY) Low     0.8%
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 06) Medium     1245k
15:35 BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks in Boston, Massachusetts High      
23:01 U.K RICS House Price Balance (JUN) Medium   -2.0% -3.0%
23:50 Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 06) Low     -¥293.4b
23:50 Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 06) Low     ¥984.9b

 

Euro

The single currency fell in yesterday’s trading session following post data weakness. The Euro was pressured lower by weaker than expected German ZEW economic sentiment. It seems that for now, investors have left global trade war behind. The Euro also fell as the U.S Dollar strengthens broadly yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1688 and a high of 1.1761 before closing the day around 1.1743 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen weakened yesterday. The yen was the weakest against the British pound. Yesterday, the yen also weakened against most major currencies thanks to supportive risk sentiment and rising bond yields. Given the lack of recent first-tier economic data or significant central bank events, the yen is trading as a function of international developments. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.78 and a high of 111.33 before closing the day around 110.98 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound staged a minor recovery yesterday after taking a bruising on the back of two ministerial resignations a day earlier which threw Theresa May’s premiership into doubt. Yesterday’s upward move is likely to be driven by short covering, and it is worth noting the political situation in the UK is still fragile.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3221 and a high of 1.3299 before closing the day at 1.3273 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell as investors are waiting for guidance on the economic outlook that could accompany a potential interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada today. Money markets see a greater than 90 percent chance that the central bank will lift its policy rate by 25 basis points, to 1.50 percent, which would be the fourth hike since last summer. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3098 and a high of 1.3143 before closing the day at 1.3110 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar strengthened against all major currencies except the British pound yesterday. The Australian dollar is currently the strongest against the Japanese yen. On Monday, the Aussie rebounded against the US dollar after making its most recent bottom at 0.7310. Thanks to improving risk sentiment, the Australian dollar rebound continues. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7428 and a high of 0.7481 before closing the day at 0.7458 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.08%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.27%.

 

 Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.05%.

 

 Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.19%.

 

 Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.17%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for July 10, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.17521 1.17613 1.16889 1.17431 -0.0006
USD/JPY 110.8 111.335 110.783 110.98 0.1520
GBP/USD 1.32577 1.32995 1.32214 1.32732 0.0017
USD/CHF 0.99131 0.99598 0.9908 0.99167 0.0003
USD/CAD 1.31096 1.31438 1.30986 1.31109 0.0006
EUR/JPY 130.224 130.719 130.074 130.337 0.1080
GBP/JPY 146.918 147.767 146.802 147.321 0.3920
CHF/JPY 111.74 112.145 111.677 111.881 0.1160
AUD/JPY 82.715 83.128 82.616 82.764 0.0400
EUR/GBP 0.88621 0.88731 0.88183 0.8845 -0.0017
EUR/CHF 1.165 1.16567 1.16298 1.1647 -0.0002
GBP/CHF 1.31445 1.32029 1.31222 1.31644 0.0022

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1629 1.1659 1.1701 1.1731 1.1773 1.1804 1.1846
USD/JPY 110.18 110.48 110.73 111.03 111.28 111.58 111.83
GBP/USD 1.3152 1.3187 1.3230 1.3265 1.3308 1.3343 1.3386
USD/CHF 0.9845 0.9876 0.9897 0.9928 0.9948 0.9980 1.0000
USD/CAD 1.3047 1.3073 1.3092 1.3118 1.3137 1.3163 1.3182
EUR/JPY 129.39 129.73 130.03 130.38 130.68 131.02 131.32
GBP/JPY 145.86 146.33 146.83 147.30 147.79 148.26 148.76
CHF/JPY 111.19 111.43 111.66 111.90 112.13 112.37 112.59
AUD/JPY 82.03 82.32 82.54 82.84 83.06 83.35 83.57
EUR/GBP 0.8763 0.8791 0.8818 0.8845 0.8873 0.8900 0.8927
EUR/CHF 1.1605 1.1618 1.1632 1.1645 1.1659 1.1671 1.1686
GBP/CHF 1.3043 1.3082 1.3123 1.3163 1.3204 1.3244 1.3285

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

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