09 Июл 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

FOREX Newsletter

July 09, 2018
 

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S economy added 213,000 jobs in June, above forecasts for 200,000 new jobs

·      U.S unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4%, the Labor Department said on Friday

·      Sterling gained almost 0.5% last week to snap a three-week 1.5% decline

·      U.S and China trade tariffs kicked in Friday, raising the prospect of a trade war

 

 

The U.S Dollar slumped against its rivals Friday, on mixed U.S. economic data showing the economy created more jobs than expected but wage growth undershot estimates. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.34% to 93.81. The U.S. economy added 213,000 jobs in June, above forecasts for 200,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4%, the Labor Department said on Friday. The Federal Reserve’s view that a tighter labor market would lead to wage growth, increasing inflationary pressures, continues to be challenged as average hourly earnings grew slower-than-expected for the month. Average hourly earnings grew 0.2%, undershooting economists’ forecast for a 0.3% increase. The weaker average hourly earnings print scaled back some bullish investor expectations for two Fed rate hikes this year. The softer average earnings indicator is likely to catch more attention as it highlights a still tame wage inflation environment. That could lead some market participants to start questioning whether we will see two Fed rate rises in second after all. The dollar was also weighed down by an uptick in the Canadian dollar as upbeat employment data, reaffirmed investor expectations that the Bank of Canadian would hike interest rates by 25 basis points next week. U.S, and China trade tariffs kicked in Friday, raising the prospect of a trade war between the world’s largest economic superpowers, but the reaction in safe-haven currencies was muted, as some said markets had priced in the impact. The Canadian Dollar will climb over the coming year, a Reuters poll showed, but forecasters are less bullish than they were a month ago as escalating trade uncertainty competes with expected Bank of Canada interest rate hikes. The poll of more than 40 foreign exchange strategists predicted the Canadian dollar will rise to C$1.30 to the greenback, or 76.92 U.S. cents, in three months, from around C$1.3140 on Thursday. Hawkish comments last week by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz have left money markets largely expecting the central bank to lift its benchmark interest rate, which sits at 1.25 percent, by 25 basis points next week.

 

  

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
04:30 Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUN) Medium     -4.36%
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (JUN) Medium     2.4%
06:00 German Trade Balance (MAY) Medium     20.4b
06:00 German Current Account (euros) (MAY) Low     22.7b
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (6 JUL) Low      
08:30 Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUL) Low     9.3
19:00 U.S Consumer Credit (MAY) Medium     $9.262b
22:45 New Zealand Card Spending Retail (MoM) (JUN) Low     0.4%
22:45 New Zealand Card Spending (MoM) (JUN) Low     0.5%
23:01 U.K BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUN) Low     2.8%
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (8 JUL) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency jumped in Friday’s trading session. The Euro was supported by the strong industrial production data from the Eurozone’s biggest economy and a Bloomberg report mentioning that some ECB members believe that postponing the first hike in the Euro Area until late-2019 could prove to be too late. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1678 and a high of 1.1765 before closing the day around 1.1744 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair closed lower last week in reaction to concerns over a fourth rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve and safe-haven buying due to the escalation of the trade dispute between the United States and China. Both factors contributed to lower Treasury yields which made the U.S Dollar a less-attractive asset.  Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.36 and a high of 110.76 before closing the day around 110.42 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound continues to be very noisy in general, as we have around the 1.32 level. It looks as of the 1.30 level underneath is trying to for some type of significant support and at this point I think it’s very difficult to imagine that this market will break down below. The only thing keeping this market down is the uncertainty between the UK and the EU. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3201 and a high of 1.3288 before closing the day at 1.3283 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar is expected to climb over the coming year, a Reuter’s poll showed, but forecasters are less bullish than they were a month ago as escalating trade uncertainty competes with expected Bank of Canada interest-rate hikes. The poll of more than 40 foreign-exchange strategists predicted the Canadian dollar will rise. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3074 and a high of 1.3148 before closing the day at 1.3100 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar enjoyed a reprieve last week from the recent relentless selling pressure that had pushed the currencies to multi-year lows. Nothing happened domestically to trigger the technical reversals on the weekly charts. However, due to a shift in investor sentiment on the U.S Dollar, Aussie sellers were forced to make aggressive position-adjustments, sending prices higher. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7374 and a high of 0.7442 before closing the day at 0.7432 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

 

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.22%.

 

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.33%.

 

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.02%.

 

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.17%.

 

 

 Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for July 06, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16894 1.17659 1.16786 1.17441 0.0052
USD/JPY 110.55 110.767 110.361 110.424 -0.2210
GBP/USD 1.32176 1.32884 1.32016 1.32832 0.0058
USD/CHF 0.993 0.99421 0.98824 0.99053 -0.0030
USD/CAD 1.31318 1.31484 1.30744 1.31009 -0.0031
EUR/JPY 129.248 129.944 129.219 129.667 0.3090
GBP/JPY 146.276 146.734 146.098 146.675 0.3250
CHF/JPY 111.333 111.726 111.237 111.501 0.1070
AUD/JPY 81.643 82.226 81.558 82.062 0.3100
EUR/GBP 0.88437 0.88659 0.88343 0.88423 -0.0002
EUR/CHF 1.16125 1.16376 1.16032 1.16316 0.0017
GBP/CHF 1.31316 1.31607 1.31114 1.31574 0.0022

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1606 1.1642 1.1693 1.1730 1.1780 1.1817 1.1868
USD/JPY 109.86 110.11 110.27 110.52 110.67 110.92 111.08
GBP/USD 1.3140 1.3171 1.3227 1.3258 1.3314 1.3345 1.3401
USD/CHF 0.9818 0.9850 0.9878 0.9910 0.9937 0.9970 0.9997
USD/CAD 1.2993 1.3034 1.3067 1.3108 1.3141 1.3182 1.3215
EUR/JPY 128.55 128.89 129.28 129.61 130.00 130.34 130.73
GBP/JPY 145.63 145.87 146.27 146.50 146.91 147.14 147.54
CHF/JPY 110.76 111.00 111.25 111.49 111.74 111.98 112.23
AUD/JPY 81.00 81.28 81.67 81.95 82.34 82.62 83.01
EUR/GBP 0.8798 0.8816 0.8829 0.8848 0.8861 0.8879 0.8892
EUR/CHF 1.1576 1.1590 1.1611 1.1624 1.1645 1.1659 1.1679
GBP/CHF 1.3076 1.3094 1.3126 1.3143 1.3175 1.3192 1.3224

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

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