20 Июл 2018

         

FOREX Newsletter

July 20, 2018

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims dropped by 8,000 for the week ended July 14

·      The Philadelphia Fed said yesterday its manufacturing index rose to a reading of 25.7 in July

·      UK retail sales undershot expectations, denting the prospect for an August Bank of England rate hike

·      The Financial Conduct Authority advised banks yesterday to prepare for a no deal Brexit scenario

The Dollar reversed course against its rivals in yesterday’s trading session after U.S. President Trump said he was “not happy” about Federal Reserve rate hikes but downside was limited amid optimism over the U.S economy. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the green against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.08% to 94.75, after hitting a session high of 95.44. “I’m not happy about it,” President Donald Trump said about interest-rate increases during an interview with CNBC yesterday, claiming that “higher rates put us [United States] at a disadvantage.” Trump insisted, however, that he would let the “Fed do what they feel is best.” The comments scaled back some investor optimism over a faster pace of rate hikes which had followed bullish comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell earlier in the week. Powell said gradual interest rate hikes would be “the best way forward” for the economy, citing stronger labor markets, and inflation that had met the Fed’s 2% objective. Downside in the dollar limited, however, as positive economic data reaffirmed investor expectations the economy remained on solid footing. The U.S. Department of Labor reported yesterday that initial jobless claims dropped by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended July 14, beating economists’ forecast for a drop to 220,000. The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its manufacturing index rose to a reading of 25.7 in July from 19.9 in June. GBP/USD fell 0.23% to $1.3039, after plunging below $1.30 earlier as UK retail sales undershot expectations, denting the prospect for an August Bank of England rate hike. Retail sales month over month fell by 0.5% in June, lower than the expected increase of 0.1%. Sales for May were revised upward from 1.3% to 1.4%. The core retail sales figure, which excludes automobiles and fuel, fell by 0.6% – lower than the expected drop of 0.3%. Overall retail sales growth for the second quarter came in at the strongest level since 2004 despite the fall in June. Safe-haven currencies were in demand as the yen and Swiss franc rose against the greenback on the back of renewed concerns about an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war.

 

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUN) Medium     3.7%
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAY) Medium   0.0% 1.0%
06:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Low   3.0% 2.7%
08:00 Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAY) Low     26.2b
08:30 U.K Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUN) Medium     4.5b
08:30 U.K Central Government NCR (JUN) Medium     6.9b
08:30 U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUN) Medium   3.6b 3.4b
08:30 U.K PSNB ex Banking Groups (JUN) Medium   5.0b 5.0b
12:00 U.S Fed’s Bullard Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy Low      
12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) Medium   1.0% -1.2%
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Medium   0.0% 0.1%
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) High   2.3% 2.2%
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (JUL 20) Medium     1054

 

 

Euro

The single currency gained in yesterday’s trading session as the Dollar fell from a one-year peak yesterday after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed concern about a strong currency, which he said puts the United States at a disadvantage. The five-year growth run has been supported by exceptionally loose monetary policy. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1573 and a high of 1.1677 before closing the day around 1.1640 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair fell from a one-year peak on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed concern about a strong currency, which he said puts the United States at a disadvantage. The greenback also gave back some of its gains against the Chinese Yuan, which had earlier dropped to a one-year low against the dollar. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.04 and a high of 113.15 before closing the day around 112.45 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound dropped below the $1.30 level on Thursday as a result of an unexpected drop in consumer spending in June, further sliming the chances of a Bank of England rate hike in August. Retail sales month over month fell by 0.5% in June, lower than the expected increase of 0.1%. Sales for May were revised upward from 1.3% to 1.4%.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2955 and a high of 1.3081 before closing the day at 1.3012 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell to a three-week low against a strong U.S Dollar yesterday, hammered by weaker commodity prices and lingering uncertainty about global trade after President Donald Trump said the United States wants to negotiate bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico. Lower commodity prices weighed on the commodity-based Canadian currency. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3157 and a high of 1.3287 before closing the day at 1.3270 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar rose broadly earlier in yesterday’s session after official data appeared to show the 2018 slowdown in Aussie jobs growth coming to an end in June but fell later in the day. Australia’s economy created 59,900 new jobs during the recent month, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up from 13,400 in May and far ahead of the consensus for an increase of 16,700. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7320 and a high of 0.7439 before closing the day at 0.7355 in the New York session.

 

 
Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.31%.

 

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.75%.

 

 

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.90%.

 

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.45%.

 

 

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.41%.

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for July 19, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16379 1.1677 1.15736 1.16403 0.0003
USD/JPY 112.838 113.15 112.042 112.45 -0.3700
GBP/USD 1.30675 1.30815 1.29556 1.30126 -0.0055
USD/CHF 0.99929 1.00415 0.99569 0.99894 0.0002
USD/CAD 1.31665 1.32872 1.31577 1.32701 0.0104
EUR/JPY 131.324 131.408 130.705 130.918 -0.4110
GBP/JPY 147.467 147.575 146.136 146.342 -1.1100
CHF/JPY 112.88 112.98 112.446 112.534 -0.3930
AUD/JPY 83.45 83.895 82.557 82.698 -0.7480
EUR/GBP 0.89046 0.89529 0.8901 0.8944 0.0040
EUR/CHF 1.16288 1.16376 1.16114 1.16301 0.0005
GBP/CHF 1.30597 1.3065 1.29847 1.30001 -0.0054

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1480 1.1527 1.1584 1.1630 1.1687 1.1734 1.1790
USD/JPY 110.84 111.44 111.94 112.55 113.05 113.66 114.16
GBP/USD 1.2826 1.2891 1.2952 1.3017 1.3078 1.3142 1.3203
USD/CHF 0.9866 0.9911 0.9950 0.9996 1.0035 1.0081 1.0120
USD/CAD 1.3060 1.3109 1.3189 1.3238 1.3319 1.3368 1.3448
EUR/JPY 129.91 130.31 130.61 131.01 131.32 131.71 132.02
GBP/JPY 144.35 145.25 145.79 146.68 147.23 148.12 148.67
CHF/JPY 111.79 112.12 112.33 112.65 112.86 113.19 113.39
AUD/JPY 80.87 81.71 82.21 83.05 83.54 84.39 84.88
EUR/GBP 0.8860 0.8881 0.8912 0.8933 0.8964 0.8985 0.9016
EUR/CHF 1.1589 1.1600 1.1615 1.1626 1.1641 1.1653 1.1668
GBP/CHF 1.2888 1.2936 1.2968 1.3017 1.3049 1.3097 1.3129

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

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